24 extra picks were granted for the 2010 draft due to free agent compensation, ranging from #18 to #80. Using Eddie Bajek's projected Elias rankings from May 23rd, let's try to guess which Type A and B free agents are likely to get arbitration offers.
All the projected Type As:
- Bronson Arroyo – Reds
- Carl Crawford – Rays
- Johnny Damon – Tigers
- Jorge de la Rosa – Rockies
- Scott Downs – Blue Jays
- Adam Dunn – Nationals
- Pedro Feliciano – Mets
- Frank Francisco – Rangers
- Vladimir Guerrero – Rangers
- Matt Guerrier – Twins
- Brad Hawpe – Rockies
- Derek Jeter – Yankees
- Hiroki Kuroda – Dodgers
- Cliff Lee – Mariners
- Derrek Lee – Cubs
- Ted Lilly – Cubs
- Felipe Lopez – Cardinals
- Victor Martinez – Red Sox
- Bengie Molina – Giants
- Andy Pettitte – Yankees
- A.J. Pierzynski – White Sox
- Manny Ramirez – Dodgers
- Arthur Rhodes – Reds
- Mariano Rivera – Yankees
- Rafael Soriano – Rays
- Miguel Tejada – Orioles
- Javier Vazquez – Yankees
- Jayson Werth – Phillies
- Dan Wheeler – Rays
Expect something like 30 Type As, with 10-15 getting arbitration offers. Crawford, Werth, and Lee are locks. The Rays and Phillies should add picks if their outfielders leave, while we're not sure which team Lee will be departing. The Rays may also offer arbitration to Soriano. Other possibilities to get arbitration offers include De La Rosa, Dunn, Guerrero, Lilly, and Martinez. I don't see the Yankees getting draft picks out of their Type As.
Type Bs will result in plenty of draft picks too, in the supplemental round. John Buck (Blue Jays), Adrian Beltre (Red Sox), Carl Pavano (Twins), Adam LaRoche (Diamondbacks for now), David Eckstein (Padres), Juan Uribe (Giants), Jon Garland (Padres) might be offered arbitration. The Rays face some interesting choices with relievers Grant Balfour and Joaquin Benoit, and also have a $4MM club option on Type A reliever Dan Wheeler. The Rays could be next year's Angels, losing multiple big leaguers but adding a slew of draft picks.
you really think the yanks are going to offer arb to Vazquez?
No, hence me writing, “I don’t see the Yankees getting draft picks out of their Type As.”
If he continues to turn around his season, why not offer him arb?
This isnt Damon or Matsui – where they’ll be paying a guy twice his market value if they were offered and accepted arbitration. He either accepts and they get a good SP for around 14m on a 1 year deal, or he’ll leave and get 2-3 years somewhere else and they get picks.
I wouldn’t rule it out at this point.
Vazquez will get offered Arb the SP market is not strong and he’s a No. 2 in the NL…he’ll get something like 3 for 30 on the open market…even if he accepts it would be a good deal especially if Andy retires and the Yankees get his 12 mill off the books, that would basically be the price for Javy
oops, misread the post. I thought the list was the players thought to be offered arb, not just projected type A status.
Im fairly sure the services of Victor Martinez will be retained for the Sox again
With what Feliciano offers offers the Mets, day in and day out, oh yeah…there will be an arb offer for “Perpetual Pedro!”
I see most of these guys being offered arb, looks like a decent type A class. The only guys I don’t see it being offered to are:
Hawpe, Molina, Pierzynski, Manny, Tejada, Vazuez, and Wheeler.
I can even see the Reds offering arb to Arroyo. He is not an ace, but is a lock for at least 200 innings a year and has stretches where he’s pretty good. He would still be valuable to a lot of teams.
Manny will be offered, he already said that he is leaving LA and not coming back next season. They would be crazy to not offer
are you kidding me? if they offer him arbitration he will take it. manny won’t pass on the money he would get than what he’s not going to be offered on the market.
he wont i promise, trust me, im a sox fan with plenty of years of experience in Manny being Manny. He will walk away from LA next year or retire
articles.latimes.com/2010/feb/23/sports/la-sp-dodg…
The Reds cannot offer arb to Arroyo, as they have to buy out his contract first. He still has one more year on the deal at 11M with a 2M buyout. I agree that it’s a fair rate, and they should just pick up the option, but if they do buy it out, if I’m not mistaken, they decline the option to offer him arbitration and cannot get any picks for him leaving.
Hey I don’t even think Draft picks for Rhodes or Arroyo will happen. I have a feeling the Reds are going to let Harrang go to free agency and Arroyo they will pick up his option year or maybe they will attempt to do something like they did with Rolen and let him have a few more years on the Reds as a veteran leader for the staff. With the Way Rhodes has pitched this year I bet they offer him a contract for next season too.
I’m assuming Konerko isn’t on this list because offering arbitration would be giving him a lot of money? I have to imagine he’s atleast a type B ?
Man, unless someone wants to punt a pick for budget reasons, Feliciano’s going to have a hard time signing somewhere other than with the Mets.
The Mets will keep him. they have no reason not to.
Two draft picks would be an awesome reason not to.
Feliciano is one of the best lefty specialists in the game. Whoever they replace him with would be a downgrade.
Relievers have volatile shelf lives. Feliciano has a lot of mileage on him in recent years. There isn’t a lefty specialist in the game I wouldn’t trade for a first/second round pick and a sandwich round pick. Especially in a deep draft like next year’s.
IF Feliciano signs somewhere else, the place that makes the most sense, is a team that has already signed another Type A player. From their POV, they aren’t giving up their 1st round pick anymore, they are only giving up their 2nd round pick. Big difference.
Sure. Or a team with a protected first round pick, like what the Royals did with Juan Cruz (still stupid for them). But I’d rather have a second round pick and a sandwich round pick than Feliciano, too. He’s a LOOGY with a lot of miles on him who’s going to want a lot of money. I’d rather have the picks.
Oh, I would rather have the picks myself as well. Not arguing that point at all. I’m just saying that Feliciano’s Type A status doesn’t necessarily preclude him from signing somewhere else besides the Mets next year. I’m a Mets fan and you know darn well they are gonna offer arb to him, and I hope he declines, and I hope he leaves. It has nothing to do with how he’s done with the team, he’s done great. But I want those picks. I’m just saying that if he gets signed by another team, the teams that make the most sense would be those with 1st round protected (I forgot about those for this argument) AND those that are already signing another Type A. That obviously doesn’t give you the entire league as a market, but it gives you about 20 teams or so to choose from, any number of which could use his services.
How are Type As determined because I know Molina and Arroyo aren’t “A” players..
The Elias Sports Bureau ranks players at each position within each league, based on offensive production (using traditional statistics like AVG, RBI, HR, SB, etc.) over the past several years. All players above a certain threshold (not just free agents) are classified as type A, then the next level is type B, or nothing. For instance, Molina is being compared to other NL catchers. He’s 2nd in the list:1) Yadier Molina2) Bengie Molina3) Brian McCann4) Miguel Montero5) Carlos Ruiz6) Russell Martin7) Geovany SotoThose are the Type A players as of a few weeks ago – for what it’s worth, 2 through 4 are very close and by now, I’m betting Molina has dropped a few spots. I would venture to say that he ranks as Type A because catcher is a light-hitting position, he ranks out pretty well according to the traditional statistics (eg. last season he had the 2nd most HR and RBI among all NL catchers), and he has received considerable playing time over the past 3 years.
What about Rod Barajas?
I was wondering the same thing. Currently he leads all ML catchers in HRs and RBIs. Last year he was 7th among all catchers in RBIs. There must be some sort of error or oversight in those rankings. At the very least, he should be a B player.
I’m thinking Elias forgot to account for the switch in leagues?
I just checked the last projections, and Barajas is the highest non-rated player, and isn’t too far from making it to Type B status. At the rate he’s hitting, he’ll be there in no time. You have to remember that they factor in the last 2 years, and last year with Toronto wasn’t exactly spectacular. Certainly not what he’s doing this year with the Mets. He’s either having a career year, or the change to the NL has suited him perfectly. But the next time the projections come out, he should be a Type B, and if he continues to have this type of season, it’s a given.
brent, no, I think there’s an error somewhere there. He was already a type B last year. So, while not spectacular, he was good. He is currently leading the majors in HRs and RBIs. So I would think he would at the very least be a type B right now.
Again, I think there’s a lapse on the part of Elias in how they are accounting for the change in leagues.
You forgot Jason Frasor on the list.