A few stray items of note as a quiet Sunday winds down on this holiday weekend:
- A Mets official told Joel Sherman of the New York Post that the organization's high-ranking officials have been discussing the possibility of going into complete rebuild mode in 2012 rather than piecing together a passable team and selling it to the fans as a playoff contender if everything breaks right. It's already widely accepted that the Mets will reduce payroll from this season's $140MM down to the $110-100MM range, but Sherman's source makes it sound like it could be even more than that.
- Is Japanese right-hander Yu Darvish worth the potential $100MM a team might have to spend to acquire his services? David Brown of Yahoo!'s Big League Stew looks at that question.
- One factor that could dissuade the White Sox from firing manager Ozzie Guillen is the possibility of him landing with the Cubs and helping to make them a winner, tweets Pedro Gomez of ESPN.com.
After the Dice K debacle I dont know why any team would shell out 100 mil for a pitcher again, lets be honest, the best pitcher to come out of japan was Nomo and he was never a 100 mil dollar pitcher
Well like the amateur draft, it’s always about “potential”, and from everything I’ve read and seen on Darvish, he has that in spades. I’d take Darvish at $100 million over C.J. Wilson at around the same price, as the upside with Darvish is just tremendous.
Me too. But I very much dislike Wilson…
Wilson is a douche
CJ Wilson isn’t getting 100 million, so its a moot point.
I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility, he’s been front line starter for a couple of years now and that includes half of his starts being in park where the ball is pretty much a superball.
That said, I really don’t think he’s worth $100M. But with the yanks potentially in on the bidding…
If the Mets shift into total rebuilding mode, doesn’t that make the no-trade of Reyes look all the more foolish?
Well I think you’ll have an answer to that question when we see what the Mets final bid on Reyes is and the Mets total payroll for next season.
Edit: Though I think this is something that they should have figured out months ago. The fact is they knew they had financial problems and a lot of money was coming off the books this offseason. If they didn’t have a tentative plan in place by last July then they’re challenging the Dodgers for the title of worst run organization this year.
Some really good prospects would have been alot better than just 1 draft pick for reyez.
Possibly. But would it be better than trying to sign Reyes, and if you don’t succeed, then at the very least, you get a few draft picks?
yes, yes it would, particularly if you could get some nice prospects that have already survived a year or two of professional ball/development.
Too late to be crying over spilled milk.
My point is that the best option is to resign Reyes, and you should function with that in mind, trying to resign him at season’s end. Second best option would be prospects, and third the draft picks.
Why is the best option to resign Reyes? Mets had Reyes healthy for much of the year and playing out of his mind, and still didn’t sniff the playoffs. If the organization is three years or more away from competing, and if they decide to go all-in on rebuilding, then what good does paying Reyes 20M a year do for the team? They would be MUCH better of putting that money into the draft and international talent and getting a plethora of talent they can build for 2014-15
I like how Pedro Gomez was linked to a player on baseball reference because they have the same name. I got a good laugh, I know this Pedro Gomez is not 20 years old in the Houston organization.
Don’t worry, I’m not over here complaining/nitpicking. I just get a good laugh out of these sometimes.
It’s bad enough that we have to hear Ozzie complain three times per year that Wriggley smells like pee, imagine how much he would b*tch if he had to play 81 games there.
I’m not sure why Seattle isn’t being mentioned. I know from a baseball point of view that its probably not a good idea considering the state of the M’s hitting, but its just the kind of thing the Mariners JAPANESE ownership would do. Ichiro was a rock star there and he is getting older. The M’s would like to keep the Japanese viewership up by getting another young exciting Japanese player. I don’t see it as out of the question. And remember, the player doesn’t get all $100 million of it. The team he is posted from gets the initial bid, the player only gets the signed contract ($50 mill or so for Dice-K). The M’s have made it clear in the past that they don’t consider the posting fee to count against their payroll. So in essence, Dice-K signed a 5yr $50 mill deal, not too bad in today’s market.
Has Pedro ever heard of all the things Ozzie has said about Wrigley Field and its fans? Never going to happen.
But if it did happen and Ozzie brought the Cubs a ring he’d never had to pay for anything on the North Side ever again.
Prediction, Ozzie stays w/Sox, Kenny Williams is replaced by Rick Hahn, Greg Walker walks.
I would not at all be surprised if Ozzie Guillen winds up landing in Minnesota in some capacity. It’s the type of move that Guillen would relish. He loves the way the Twins go about their business and he’d get to be a thorn in the side of the white sox.
By my math (after a quick peak at Cot’s), the Mets have a ton of cash coming off the ledger from guys who are gone or won’t be back: Betran ~$20M, Castillo $6.25M, Perez $12M, K-Rod ~$12M, Igarashi $1.75M, Young $1M. Other mid-range players like Pelf, Pagan, Hairston, Paulino and Byrdak will get raises or will go elsewhere, while the youngsters like Niese, Murphy, and Parnell will get small raises. So do Santana and Wright. I don’t see why the Mets cannot field a competitive team with a $100M to $115M, with or without Reyes, and amount the team can certainly handle with all the off-the-books revenues from concessions, merchandise, and SNY that they don’t talk about. No need to go into a multi-year rebuilding mode. It’s not he early 90s anymore. Contending teams come and go much quicker these days when, especially with a $90+M payroll the Wilpons can handle.
By my math (after a quick peak at Cot’s), the Mets have a ton of cash coming off the ledger from guys who are gone or won’t be back: Betran ~$20M, Castillo $6.25M, Perez $12M, K-Rod ~$12M, Igarashi $1.75M, Young $1M. Other mid-range players like Pelf, Pagan, Hairston, Paulino and Byrdak will get raises or will go elsewhere, while the youngsters like Niese, Murphy, and Parnell will get small raises. So do Santana and Wright. I don’t see why the Mets cannot field a competitive team with a $100M to $115M, with or without Reyes, and amount the team can certainly handle with all the off-the-books revenues from concessions, merchandise, and SNY that they don’t talk about. No need to go into a multi-year rebuilding mode. It’s not he early 90s anymore. Contending teams come and go much quicker these days when, especially with a $90+M payroll the Wilpons can handle.
Forgot Holliday.
I would take Braun and Tulo right now. Mauer didn’t look bad at the time and still could work out fine and Pujols’ was definitely worth it. With all that said, those are some really bad odds. The difference with the Darvish contract is that 50 mil or so would be up front and not a lingering pain in the butt. It is still a huge amount of money and a huge risk.
Organizations give out such contracts KNOWING they will be overpaying in the latter years. But it is something you need to do to secure the prime years. You lol at A-Rod, but hey, he helped them win a championship. Seriously, we would have lost to Minnesota if it weren’t for him. Dude went into beast mode in 09. Not to mention, he’ll put butts in the seats towards the end of his career with the HR chase and all. And if he ends up not getting close to the HR title, then his salary remains around 20m/year for the latter years. Still a lot, I know, but not as bad as 30m/year. With inflation and all, it’s not that bad to stomach.
I would definitely give the money to Darvish than mediocrity posing as excellence, as in the case with Wilson. Kuroda is consistent, but he’s getting up there in age. He would just be a temporary fix anyway.
I think you have to go on the individual, trust your scouts, and not get too caught up in precedent set by the Igawas and Matsuzakas.
The biggest asset of a large market team is the ability to take risks and not be handcuffed by them if they don’t pan out. I’m all for Darvish. Let’s go!
So basically you proved that they are worth it in a lot of situations, but when teams get it wrong, it really hurts. I think we knew that. Still thanks for the leg work.
I’m sorry. I’m still caught up on the “mediocrity posing as excellence” bit.
CJ is mediocrity posing as excellence? He is a closer turned starter who has excellent stats, great W-L numbers (against true “aces” even when he’s not considered one), pitches a ton of innings, and has shown he how good he can be in playoff situations all while pitching in a launch pad in ridiculous heat. Imagine what he’d do in a more pitcher friendly park or even the NL. I’m not saying he is a Cliff Lee type guy (yet), but he has proven that he is one of the best lefty’s in the game.
Failure rate for eastern prospects is based on such a small sample size. In all likelihood the failure rate of the Latin american prospects are probably just as high. How many of those guys make it the bigs? The difference is that they’re signed in mass (and on the cheap which is why they’re signed in mass) and the rare one who is a star makes it through while hundreds of nobodies serve out time in the minors. Baseball prospects are about numbers, theres not a huge baseball following in the asian market except for Japan making it difficult to acquire them in mass.
Please stop saying they’re not worth going after cause of the EXTREMELY SMALL Sample size that got posted. I will agree paying posting fees is a dumb dumb move most of the time as it pays a ton of money for a player who has as much of a chance as working out as a high end latin american prospect but with 50 times the cost. I believe they should be trying to get these guys as amateurs, something like how Wang was gotten, he was pretty successful till the injuries and was cheap.
Prospects are about numbers, the more you have the better your chance, don’t focus on a small sample size.
“Even though the Yankees have cash and a need for pitching, they shouldn’t throw good money after bad.”
why not? it seems to me the only answer here is “because they’ll lose money”. but who cares about that? that’s never impacted payroll flexibility and there’s no reason to think it would. so if it’s just the difference between the steinbrenners’ end-of-year payout, why isn’t it a risk worth taking?
i see the argument for every other team except new york
“Even though the Yankees have cash and a need for pitching, they shouldn’t throw good money after bad.”
why not? it seems to me the only answer here is “because they’ll lose money”. but who cares about that? that’s never impacted payroll flexibility and there’s no reason to think it would. so if it’s just the difference between the steinbrenners’ end-of-year payout, why isn’t it a risk worth taking?
i see the argument for every other team except new york
Cole Hamels, Matt Cain, Matt Kemp, and Dan Haren will prob. Be extended. I could see the Rangers extending Hamilton as well.
I don’t think he’s been starting long enough, or putting up good enough numbers, to be called one of the best lefties in the game.
Since CJ not starting for very long is your only good argument against him, that should tell you all you need to know about how good he is.
“or putting up good enough numbers”
Since becoming a starter CJ has a 3.46 FIP, a 3.76 xFIP, 3.78 SIERA, 7.81 K/9, and 3.53 B/9. Those numbers are good for sure, but they aren’t “one of the best lefties in the game” good.
It’d be tough to find many better.