The Red Sox are 62-71 after getting creamed by the Athletics last night, and they've dropped five of seven since making the big nine-player blockbuster with the Dodgers a week ago. Chairman Tom Werner spoke to Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe about a number of topics, so let's recap…
- “All I can say from our point of view, we were very pleased with the result," said Werner about the trade. "It was something we’ve been talking to the Dodgers about even in July. I feel like this gives us a real opportunity now."
- Werner made it clear that the savings from the trade will be reinvested in the team, but it is unlikely to happen all at once. They hope to sign Cody Ross to an extension and will at least attempt to sign Jacoby Ellsbury long-term. Retaining David Ortiz is another priority.
- “We give him high marks in how he’s dealt with the challenges this season, and he’s going to be with us for a long time," said Werner regarding GM Ben Cherington. “We just have to be more disciplined. One of the things we’ve talked to Ben about is supplementing his staff with a few more evaluators. I’m confident that we’ll get back because now we have the resources and the talent with Ben, and under Ben, to do so.”
- Werner reiterated that the team is happy with Bobby Valentine, but he declined to talk about the manager's future with the club beyond 2012.
- Werner discussed several other topics as well, including potential distractions from owning the Liverpool soccer club as well as when he thinks the Red Sox can contend again.
He is right.. Sign Ross, only oritz if he is willing to come back at less AAV and 1 year guaranteed, 2nd year team option and forget Ellsbury, unless it is 5 years max at 20m AAV max, anything more is beyond wacky, even that is too long.
Move Saltalamacchia, who they should have before his stick plummeted at the deadline anyway and Aviles.
The team has finally started playing youngsters Lavarnway, Iglesias and Kalish.. there is a reason they have struggled and Cook?? WHY is he getting any starts.. Time for a DFA, let morales start and see if he is the answer next year as a rotation piece. he had a few turns to rest and is on the DL with a phony issue, let him have a few more turns in another week.
Another story on WEEI few days back that Valentine wasn’t inclined to see many more kids called up other than Mortenson.. Disagree.. Carpenter and Wilson should get a look, then they could move more BP pieces over the winter, call up Drake britton 9on the 40 man) and give him a start. let matsuzaka sit, he has sat on them for over 2 years, let him play winter ball if he wants to create a market for his services next season.
I like Ross, and I was really glad when they signed him, but I’m kinda ‘meh’ on the idea of extending him. There are signs that he is due for a not insignificant regression next year:
He had a BABIP 20 points higher than his career average this year, but maybe you can give him the benefit of the doubt on that because it could be the wall in left field giving him hits on balls that might be outs in other parks
His ISO and HF/FB were significantly higher than his career averages (and his HF/FB is ~50% higher than league average), but again, maybe you can give him the benefit of the doubt to a degree on some of that because of the park(s) he’s playing in now
But the one that I’m the most leery about is his platoon splits. He had a significant platoon split this year (190 wRC+ against lefties and 97 wRC+ against righties – he was below league average against righties) and was actually quite a bit better than his career average against righties, and if that was just a fluke (and it’s hard to say it isn’t because platoon splits take so long to stabilize) he’s really nothing more than a good platoon player, and you don’t give platoon players 2-3 year deals and you don’t give them multi-million dollar contracts.
He generally hits lefties better during his career and the stadium is what fits him. it’s not like a 3y and 21m deal is out of bounds for a position the team needs something at.
I agree he would be better suited as a LF than RF, unless he got significant reps at RF where he was just left there and got used to the difficult corner at fenway and should be left out of CF altogether, the main position he played for the marlins due to lack of anyone else.
I don’t think he will regress either, rather his numbers increase. he is a FB hitter by nature and if anything, might actually be trying to hit more to LF/LCF now than anything since he is finally playing somewhere where his fair power to that direction has a much better chance for hit balls to leave, or hit the wall.
The team doesn’t really need outfielders – it’s probably their deepest position, and the fact that he has always been (and even was this year) below league average against right handed pitching should give you a bit of pause (generally between 75-80% of pitchers are right handed, so he’s below league average against ~75% of pitchers – that’s oversimplification, but you get the idea).
He’s a useful player to have, and I really do like the guy, but I wouldn’t want to give him 3/21, or really even be very excited about 2/14. I’d either look for someone on a one year deal, or slot Kalish in instead, and wait for one of the prospects to develop (Brentz and Bradley will likely both be ready for the majors by the end of next season – Hazelbaker and Hissey could both see time next year as well and look like they could be useful players – and Jacobs and De La Cruz could both potentially be in Boston sometime in 2014).
Agree with you that he isn’t worth that money, but It depends on what direction the front office thinks they will head. He is their best current option at RF unless they sign one of the other free agents, but if they won’t be competing they would be best off going with some cheaper option. Maybe pop Sweeney in at right and Nava in at Left. Afterall Nava did do a decent job in 200 AB so far.
He might be their best internal option for RF next year (I say might because, if healthy, I think Kalish is possibly a better option), but he wont be their best option the year after and he’ll likely get a 3 year deal, so it would make more sense to either use someone already under control for next year or sign someone who will take a one year deal (or be willing and able to be a good 4th outfielder after next year).
Bradley and possibly Jacobs. Not too much oh Hissey and Halebaker. Hissey have been noticing also finally after all these years started to hit some after he was given like a 1m over slot bonus, but it is all singles and he still hasn’t used his speed and hazelbaker is a K guy who doesn’t walk and a poor defender, targeted to be a LF in the majors should he make it. Of them all, only Brentz and Bradley really have a chance as have read about the issues with DeLacruz also.
It’s not as rosy with OF as it seems. Yeah.. They could keep Lin on the 40 man, resign Pods to some kind of deal as a 4th OF..
Anyway.. Ross has shown through 100 games with his numbers that he can play at fenway and giving him 7m a year is a decent value, especially as compared to what a few others are getting, even on the team come next season and giving it to him as a bridge to hopefully younger guys couldn’t hurt.
Bryce Brentz perhaps?
Think brentz may get a few AB’s end of next season. He just got called up to the Pawsox and has a bad K-BB%, but may be a decent OF, we shall see. I am curious to see how well he does with him being RH and at fenway at least if he gets a shot.
But they don’t need a three year bridge, and they don’t need one who should probably be expected to play like a platoon player going forward. If they are going to give someone multiple years it should be someone younger and better than Ross.
I’d love to have Ross on another one year deal, and I’d even be OK if they went two years, but anything beyond that really just doesn’t make sense given his age and ability.
They don’t have anyone ready, nor IMO even a year ready that they can really pretty much count on other than bradley. brentz and Kalish *might* work out, but I don’t have much (if any) faith that Hazelbaker and Hissey are going to amount to anything. Jacobs could work out, but he is a couple years away and Ross is better than average.
It’s fine, we don’t agree on everything these last few years anyway as you have noticed. LOL
Bradley and Brentz will be ready next year, and with Ellsbury still here for next year Ross would be blocking someone as early as next season, and we’d still have him for two more after that. Then, with Bradley being a CF and Brentz profiling as a RF it would stick Ross in LF, where quality replacements are easy to come by (and Ross doesn’t hit particularly well for LF, which is generally a position similar to 1B where you stick defensively deficient sluggers). Plus, it would leave Kalish without a job, and he profiles as a better (and considerably cheaper) player than Ross.
I really, really hope Brentz works out. His plate discipline is so bad. yeah.. Middlebrooks has been that way and for half of a MLB season it hasn’t been exploited **yet** but that isn’t a lot to go by really and Brentz’s discipline/K-BB% is every bit as bad thru AA as Middlebrooks’s was. His power does look intriguing
I do see your points, it requires 2, maybe 3 of the OF prospects to mature and beyond Bradley? Not sure they will.
Even if they don’t, I don’t think Ross is the best use of the money/roster space. He’s a league average, or slightly better player (2-3), and those are always available for cheap.
Should have added this much earlier Maine:
Think you also are counting on Ellsbury being gone after 2013, Bradley as the CF, are kind of hoping the FO doesn’t sign Ross to a deal, which leaves 2 open spots in the OF for Kalish/Nava to go after one and the punch line is?
Why you (and another big Sox fan here) are hard after wanting Justin Upton. That kind of makes sense if the team goes into ‘trying to instantly compete” and makes more large moves over the winter and if they do go in that direction? Cherrington will be one busy man. I, myself don’t think it will get that drastic, but one never knows.
Upton would be awesome (and a perfect fit IMO), but I’m not even considering him as an option when I say they should sign Ross to a multi-year deal (if they traded for Upton there’s no way they should re-sign Ross – same with if they extend Ellsbury). Ross is a 2-3 WAR player and there are other options this offseason (and a bunch more next offseason) who will provide at least as much value and likely come on shorter deals (Melky would possibly take a one year deal to show that he can do it ‘clean’ and build some value back up, and Hunter may take a 1 year deal given his age) and if you’re going to go the multiple year route anyway there are better options for that as well (I’d actually like to see the other Upton [BJ] in RF for the Sox assuming the money/years are reasonable, and Swisher will presumably be available).
Trading for Upton really has nothing to do with trying to compete next year – he’s only 25, is one of the top talents in the game, and is under control for multiple seasons (and could be extended).
BJ Upton is going to get over paid and end up being a big bust for somebody after this season.. My guess is the nationals since Rizzo has this love affair with him still, so thank goodness he is probably out. One would think the nat’s had learned their lesson with people with issues after morgan and Dukes, but it seems the nationals still have not.
Hunter actually would be a tough as nails sign, but he is bound to say something, the NE media twist it into something he never said and make a huge issue out of it. that is the only reason am against not giving him a *1* year deal in the 6-8m range, otherwise, like you said? he would be a decent stopgap. His numbers are declining, but his glove isn’t bad and he still has power.
Melky is something not sure of again.. I still think he will end up with a multi year deal in the beltran range.. 2/25m or so and that is too much IMO.
If the team was pretty sure they could keep Hunter under some kind of control.. he would be great, but man-o-man, he says things, has some side issues that just worry my.. Not personally mind you, but things that those dirt diggers would possibly have a field day with and it’s a shame.
Right, if someone is going to overpay BJ then obviously just walk away, but if he could be had reasonably I think he would be a solid signing.
I’m not really worried about how the media might twist things Hunter says (or even things they wouldn’t have to twist) if he plays well on the field and doesn’t cause problems in the clubhouse I’m all for it, and by all accounts he’s a great clubhouse guy and people all around the game love him, plus he’s still a decent player (has been more valuable this year than Ross has) and given his age would likely come on a short deal (he also actually said recently that he would like to sign in Boston if Ortiz is still around).
I think Melky either gets a deal from someone who’s willing to take a risk and go 5 years, or he gets a one year “Beltre” contract and hopes for a multi-year deal next offseason; I doubt he goes for a 2 (or even 3) year deal.
Hey.. I would take Ross and Hunter flanking Ellsbury any day next year. 🙂
No team (to me) is going to throw 5y at Cabrera now after what has just happened. He gets 1, maybe 2 and a team option for 3.1 then is probably it then? Would rather have Ross/Hunter combo and wait out Bradley and see if Brentz is going to have some success at AAA, Jacobs improves with his hamate injury healed, see if Kalish can stay healthy.. Even Hazelbaker.
If Ross wasn’t going to get three years I would be fine with that too, but someone is going to give him three years, and there is no place for him that far into the future, and players who are as good (or better) and could be had on shorter deals. (If Cabrera gets one or two years I’d be all for signing him instead of Ross)
BTW: Forgot to tag this onto other post.. I’d like to see Boston take a flyer on Guthrie.. He will be really reasonable am pretty sure and AL east proven. Imagine 2-4m (or less) and can’t ask for much better of a back end rotation pitcher to eat innings..
That’s pretty much what Lackey is at this point though, so unless they unload Lackey I don’t see Guthrie as a fit (unless they move someone I think the rotation going into the year should be Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey, Morales/de la Rosa [and maybe Webster makes his way on to the team in the second half] – and if they add someone it should be a #2-3 McCarthy/Sanchez type, not another #5 Lackey type).
Morales the team can always use as a swing man and as Wright already proved.. he is no SP at the MLB level. Do they have any others they could rotate up from the pawsox next year?? DelaRosa from the LAD maybe if not on the roster already. hernandez possibly.
Guthrie type can’t hurt, but you know the HR will come from him at fenway.
Guthrie as AAA depth wouldn’t hurt, but I don’t think he’ll go for that, and if you have him and Lackey both in the rotation don’t count on contending for anything.
Wright has never pitched in the majors, and has good numbers in the minors, so I don’t know how he has proved that he can’t start at the major league level. Hernandez could possibly start, Aceves could get some starts if he’s still on the team (I don’t think that’s how he is best used, but he could if he was needed), Workman could get some starts, and there are always guys they could sign to minor league contracts who would provide as much quality depth as Guthrie without having to actually be in your rotation.
If they are going to sign a free agent pitcher it should be one who is actually better than the options they already have.
The team for some guys just isn’t aggressive with promotions. Workman being one who should have gotten called up a good 2 months before he did. They had all those retreads blocking the path at AAA, thereby blocking his path at AA and it is just plain wrong, now his advancement is delayed, ditto britton, who maybe should be starting at Pawtucket next season had it not been for people with no business being around.
Guthrie, then maybe it’s just me.. Is a decent SP and probably as good (or better) than lackey. he will find a job next year and just might prove ya wrong there. he can get rattled sometimes and give up the long ball, but he is someone I would like for Cherrington to take a look at, tho not as hard as Anabel Sanchez of course.
They didn’t have guys in AAA who were going to be blocking anyone, if they thought someone in AA needed to be promoted they would have just dumped someone (Buckner, Pena, Duckworth all could have been dropped), and Britton was struggling really bad in A ball, so it’s not like he was earning a promotion.
Guthrie is a ~4.50-5.00 ERA pitcher who can throw 200 innings (career 4.62 SIERA, 4.77 FIP, 4.65 xFIP), a healthy Lackey can provide the same thing and possibly better (and that’s not all that valuable anyway, having two of those would be really bad).
I’m going to respectfully and strongly disagree with your take on Ellsbury. I’ve been a fan of his since his AA days, but $20M a year? He’s had two good seasons, one stellar season and two injury-plagued seasons. He’ll be 29 next year. $100M/5 is a colossal waste of money.
Some team might pay it, and maybe Ellsbury will become a perennial .320/30/100 kind of guy — but I seriously doubt it. If he manages to play, I see him as a .280/15/70 kind of guy whose speed is going to decline as the years progress.
Using one great year as a benchmark for future contracts gets you people like Gary Mathews Jr., Aaron Rowand, Vernon Wells, etc.
I agree. I said back in the offseason that I did not see him repeating 2011 in any way, and I still don’t see it. He has never shown the ability to be a power hitter. Unless he proves it to me again he is nothing more than a .300/.350/.420 hitter. He is a good leadoff hitter when healthy, but $20M aav is insane. $14M is more like it if he has a healthy season, but more if he can hit more than 10 hr for the 2nd time in his career.
I say Ross for 2 years with an option for a third, sign ortiz for 3 years (he may be happy with more years and less money), trade for JUpton, sign Swisher for first base if they can, and I know Greinke is a risk, but what the hell, also maybe EJackson
Yea why be content with all the money you saved, just throw it away. They’d be better off just throwing it in the garbage can than your plan.
Why after saving all this money on bad deals you would sign a pitcher with a massive anxiety disorder to pitch in probably the worst possible place for him to go Grienke wouldn’t be a smart way to spend this money.
Out of everything he said, the Grienke part was the only decent one. Upton is a bad attitude who isn’t batting well so why would you want to deal with the attitude. Swisher is asking the freaking moon for a guy who’s average at best, yes he’s consistent but consistenly average doesn’t mean he deserves what he wants. Lastly Edwin Jackson would be fine but if it’s me i’d rather have a young guy in that spot then go after him. Grienke isn’t pitching great in LAA but he’s not freaking out, I’ve heard nothing about his anxiety disorder since he was on the Royals and they were discussing him going to the Yanks and hell I wouldn’t want to go to the Yanks, the Journalist there alone are enough to give anyone a panic attack let alone the fans.
I know this is a scary thought for Red Sox fans but you don’t have to compete every year, isn’t it better to save your money, get some young guys a chance and then make a real push for it in a year or two?
Yeah, until someone can legitimately demonstrate otherwise, or Greinke says so himself, I think the anxiety thing is a non-issue. I think Greinke prices himself out of the range that the Red Sox feel comfortable with, so I don’t think he ends up in Boston anyway, but it wont be because of his anxiety disorder.
Upton was one of the best players in the game last year, and is still one of the most talented in the game this year, but has been dealing with a wrist problem this year. And the attitude thing seems to be made up (not saying you made it up, I’ve heard it before, but there’s never been anything reported about him ever actually being a problem).
There’s no way Swisher gets the kind of contract he’s reportedly looking for, and if it’s low enough he could actually be a really good fit for Boston (it’s unlikely though because I think the low end of what he could get is probably the high end of what Boston should spend, so it would take a bit of luck).
Jackson would be okay, but I’d rather spend the money on someone else – McCarthy or Sanchez could be good fits depending on the money they get, or they could theoretically just go with internal options (Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey, Morales/de la Rosa).
I wouldn’t go out and blow the money just because they have it, but there are options out there who could be had reasonably and it wouldn’t really negate their chances of winning, or keep them from developing their prospects.
Greinke is only a good signing for Boston if you’re playing MLB 2K10.
Greinke is only a bad signing for Boston if he still gets a contract like the one people thought he would at the beginning of this year (he probably will, so it would likely be a bad signing for Boston, but it would be because of the contract, not because there’s anything wrong with Greinke).
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Grienke get a $100M contract or something close and that’s something the Sox don’t need right now. The Sox do need to get another pitcher but not one who will require a long and expensive commitment.
More importantly, they don’t need a pitcher that needs to be sedated in order to handle the pressure every day.
Right, and that’s why I added the part at the end about him probably getting a contract that doesn’t make sense for them, but it will be because of the contract that he doesn’t make sense for them and not because of some perceived issue with Greinke the pitcher or Greinke the person.
Greinke has won an average of 13 games a season during his full years in MLB….. definitely not super star credentials. Whoever pays him $100M has got rocks in his/her head
Forget Greinke, is has become a gun for hire….no team loyalty.
Because he’s been traded twice? Get real.
If Greinke goes elsewhere in 2013 that will be 4 teams in 3 years. Each time he moves it is to the highest bidder….which fulfills my definition of a MLB gun for hire….
While retaining Ortiz is a priority, unless he is willing to take $7 Million per year (I’d offer the 2 years he wants, but at $14 Base with incentives that are ‘easy to reach’.) than I let him walk. Here’s my Ortiz contract structure:
’12- $7 MM base, 1 MM for 500 PA reached, 250,000 for each 50.
’13- $7 MM base, 1 MM for 500 PA reached, 500,000 for each 50.
No way Ortiz takes less then what he makes this year. He was very upset that the low balled him last year in arbitration and with the way he performed before his injury he could command 10-12mil a year.
I like a 2 year, 6 mil for Ross. No more. Ortiz, 2 year, 10-12 mil range. No more than 2 year deal. I’d like to see the Sox pursue Torii Hunter. Get rid of Salty, Valentine, Cook and a few other non-functioning pieces. Try to sign Jacoby, but with Boris as his agent, it’s a hope and a prayer. Not overpaying for him.
We need quality arms in the starting rotation. Period, end of story. Aceves goes back to his role, Bailey is the closer. Aviles has done just ok at short, Jose’ Inglesias has no bat. Trade him too.
Manage the money like it’s your own, Ben Cherington. We have the flexibility to build a winning team and get back to the status we enjoyed in 2004 and 2007
I hope those are the annual values and not the total contract..
Ross, 2-years @ $9M (4,5)
Pass on Ortiz
Pass on Matsuzaka
Find a buyer for Lackey even if cash has to go along
Name Bailey closer
Trade Salty
Trade Sweeney
Trade Loney
Trade Aviles
Trade Iglaises
Trade Lester
Demote Cherington
Loney is a free agent and sweeney will be non tendered. Who plays short. Bogaerts needs another year seasoning. Lester is a must keep. Lackey may very well be worth keeping. He’s got three years left at 31.5 million. And Ortiz should be back for continuing to perform.
Ells will probably sign with someone who is willing to over pay him. Probably the Giants!
Give Ortiz a 2 year contract and he’ll “fat cat” it.