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Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

By Ben Nicholson-Smith | November 2, 2012 at 2:58pm CDT

The Cardinals enter the offseason without the need for large-scale change.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yadier Molina, C: $74MM through 2017
  • Matt Holliday, OF: $69MM through 2016
  • Jaime Garcia, SP: $23.25MM through 2015
  • Carlos Beltran, OF: $13MM through 2013
  • Chris Carpenter, SP: $12.5MM through 2013
  • Adam Wainwright, SP: $12MM through 2013
  • Jake Westbrook, SP: $9.75MM through 2013
  • Rafael Furcal, SS: $7.5MM through 2013
  • Skip Schumaker, 2B: $1.5MM through 2013

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

  • Edward Mujica, RP: $3.2MM (third time eligible)
  • Kyle McClellan, RP: $2.4MM (third time eligible, non-tender candidate)
  • Jason Motte, RP: $4.7MM (second time eligible)
  • David Freese, 3B: $2.6MM (first time eligible)
  • Mitchell Boggs, RP: $1.3MM (first time eligible)
  • Marc Rzepczynski, RP: $900K (first time eligible)

Free Agents

  • Kyle Lohse, Lance Berkman, Brian Fuentes

No general manager begins an offseason by declaring that his team could contend for a championship as-is. It'd be boastful and create unwanted attention. But if any team can contend in 2013 without making prominent offseason additions it's the Cardinals.

Adam Wainwright - Cardinals (PW)

The Cardinals seem to be in tremendous position for the 2013 season. Their roster includes impact players in their prime such as Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday. It features an effective starting rotation with a combination of established veterans and powerful young arms. There's a collection of homegrown, pre-arbitration eligible position players who can really hit. And the roster doesn't include a single bad contract.

That said, John Mozeliak has a number of needs this offseason. The general manager will pursue left-handed relief, perhaps through free agency. Jeremy Affeldt, Sean Burnett and Randy Choate are among the free agent left-handers who could become targets in St. Louis. There's also the possibility of a trade, not that teams are generally keen on parting with reliable left-handed relief. It'd make sense for the Cardinals to offer Burnett or Affeldt a modest multiyear deal if that's what it takes.

The Cardinals could also consider upgrades at the middle infield positions. They have more internal options at second base than at shortstop, since Matt Carpenter will work out at second this offseason and prospect Kolten Wong could contribute at the MLB level by 2013. There's also trade candidate Skip Schumaker and Daniel Descalso, who spent most of the '12 season at second.

Pete Kozma's postseason performance aside, the Cardinals have legitimate questions at shortstop. Counting on Rafael Furcal to stay healthy all year probably isn't realistic at this point, leading Joe Strauss to suggest the Cardinals could add a shortstop for the short term. While this may not be an urgent need, it's worth keeping in mind.

Schumaker doesn't have a clear role on next year's Cardinals team, so he could be traded. He'd likely draw interest given his $1.5MM salary, the scarcity of free agent second basemen and his ability to hit right-handed pitching and reach base. The Royals, Orioles and Blue Jays should all consider Schumaker in my view. Matt Adams could be another trade chip, since he doesn't have a clear role on the St. Louis roster. The 24-year-old has shown lots of power at the minor league level and could appeal to teams such as the Rays and Indians. If those teams hesitate to surrender value in trades, the Cardinals can simply keep Adams as depth.

Kyle Lohse will hit free agency this offseason, and he won't be returning to St. Louis. Expect the Cardinals to extend the right-hander a qualifying offer to set themselves up for draft pick compensation in 2013. Lance Berkman will also leave as a free agent (assuming he doesn't retire). Instead, Jenifer Langosch has suggested the Cardinals could pursue a right-handed hitting power threat for the bench. Jonny Gomes and Casper Wells are among the right-handed hitting outfielders who could appeal to Mozeliak.

The GM will likely discuss a potential extension with Adam Wainwright's representatives in the coming months. At this point, Wainwright, Chris Carpenter and Jake Westbrook are all on track to hit free agency following the 2013 season. By extending Wainwright the Cardinals would lock up a reliable starter who can facilitate the transition to a younger group of arms. He pitched well in his return from Tommy John surgery, even if he fell short of the lofty personal standards he established in 2009-10. Wainwright's representatives at Aegis Sports Management could be positioned to demand four or five additional years now that Wainwright's this close to free agency.

The Cardinals' group of six arbitration eligible players includes one non-tender candidate: Kyle McClellan. It's also possible Mozeliak could trade McClellan to a team in need of pitching, though they probably wouldn't obtain much in return given his season-ending shoulder injury.

The group also includes a number of extension candidates. It might make sense to wait before extending David Freese given his difficulties staying on the field. The Cardinals could also look to cap costs by signing relievers such as Jason Motte and Mitchell Boggs to modest extensions. At this stage there's no urgency to complete deals, so unless the Cardinals are getting discounts or extending their period of team control, new contracts won't be necessary.

Even a well-built team such as this one has offseason needs. Mozeliak will attempt to add left-handed relief and sort out his team's middle infield in the coming months. Still, compared to last offseason — a winter that included a managerial search and high stakes negotiations with the organization's franchise player — this year will probably seem pretty quiet.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

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Offseason Outlook St. Louis Cardinals

Kameron Loe, Nyjer Morgan Elect Free Agency
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View Comments (21)
Post a Comment

21 Comments

  1. DerekJeterDan

    13 years ago

    With Adams, Carpenter, and Kozma I really like the Cardinals young depth.

    Reply
    • Brian 46

      13 years ago

      lolzma

      Reply
  2. cards2WS

    13 years ago

    Even though Skip doesn’t appear to have a real fit on this team, I don’t see him traded. His real value comes from the clubhouse.

    Reply
  3. stl_cards16

    13 years ago

    Kind of shocking Big Mac is leaving for the Dodgers. I really don’t put too much stock into hitting coaches. But when the offense has been one of the best since he has been here, I’m a bit disappointed.

    Reply
  4. teufelshunde4

    13 years ago

    Id like to see what it would take to pry Jed Lowrie away from the Astro’s.. Has a couple years of control left and is a switch hitter with power and plays good defense at SS, 2b and some 3b. Stro’s in full rebuild mode might not ask for a ton in return…

    If Lowrie to expensive then why not Macier Izturis? He is a free agent who can play both MI positons. Can steal a bag once in a while and knows how to play the game right.. Shouldnt be expensive… Reminds me of Punto alot….

    Reply
    • Bryce a

      13 years ago

      Lowrie would be an interesting choice. He’s has a history of injuries but put up good numbers last year with the Astros who aren’t going anywhere the next 2 years. Luhnow knows the Cards system well and knows that they have some high upside players such as Blair and Sanchez that had an off year last year and have been passed up but still posses top 100 prospect skills.

      Reply
  5. Andy_B

    13 years ago

    This team needs a short stop, it’s the only hole we have. If there’s a way to get Andrus I’d love to see it happen.

    Reply
  6. Nate Wade

    13 years ago

    I know that Allen Craig’s natural position is 1B but why couldn’t he play RF. I mean that would open it up for Matt Adams at first. He did secure our last out in last year’s World Series in LF. Our lineup in two years would be stacked (if we secured a SS).

    2B Wong
    CF Taveras
    LF Holliday
    1B Adams
    RF Craig
    C Molina
    3B Freese (or other young 3B in the farm)
    SS ______ (dream that Matt Carpenter could pull it off by then)
    P

    Not bad at all and would be rather balanced lineup.

    Reply
    • danh35

      13 years ago

      I don’t think it’s certain that Taveras can handle centerfield, he’ll be in RF and Craig will be at 1B.

      Reply
      • Nate Wade

        13 years ago

        I don’t know much about Taveras fielding abilities. Does he lack speed or range? Plus Jay has done a great job just not sure about his stick long term.

        Reply
        • Aaron Williams

          13 years ago

          TAveras is very athletic but from what I’ve read doesn’t read the ball as well as a CF needs to off the bat! His Arm is playable in RF but he is a future LF in the making with a hell of a bat!!!

          Reply
    • Eric Vossmeyer

      13 years ago

      The 2014 lineup almost certainly includes Taveras in RF, barring massive AAA regression next season. The possibility of that, added with the need for OF/1B depth, is why I think Adams stays a Cardinal and likely contributes this coming season.

      Reply
  7. burnboll

    13 years ago

    David Freese is exactly where Cardinals want him. Keep him for a year or two, then let him walk. Cards will have the best of him, and for a very affordable price.

    Absolutely do not extend him, unless he accepts a very team friendly contract for 4-5 years. No point in it.

    Let other teams pay him 10+ million a year. He’s worth it, but don’t make it the Cards be the team to pay him off.

    I was wondering why this list of contract players do not include guys like Tavares, Rosenthal, Shelby Miller and Kolten Wong, guys who are likely to be part of the the everyday squad next year?

    Cardinals looks absolutely loaded, both on offence and on pitching, the one question mark being short stop, I think Rafael Furcal could give it a decent go for at least a half season.

    Could Kolten Wong be an option for SS and Carpenter manning 2nd base?

    I think it’s always preferably to look within the own organization to find the right players.

    If you can’t do that, look for old overlooked vets stuck in bad spots, kind of like Scutaro with the Red Sox (not a SS, but you get the idea).

    That’s how Cards were able to get Berkman, who IMO is one of the greatest steals in a very long time. As is Beltran. And both those players ended up in St Louis. The front office in St Louis is doing something right no doubt.

    If Cardinals are looking for help externally for a SS, it would be interesting to see perhaps Alex Gonzalez on a one year deal, and then getting Kolten Wong trying to play the position.
    I don’t know. As long as Furcal can play, there is no need to get additional players for Cardinals, but that’s a big question mark.
    But Cardinals, right now, have probably the best looking team of all.
    I think they’ll win it all next year.

    Reply
    • WeDontNeedToFinPracticeRANDY

      13 years ago

      Carpenter at second would be a circus. First thing first, gotta sure up the pen.

      Reply
  8. jimmybcool

    13 years ago

    I don’t see Wong trying out SS. Not happening. And Carpenter playing 2B is at most a super utility thing to get his bat in the lineup a bit more often.

    And many names listed here as being major factors in 2013 are further off. Including Tavaras who while I am high on his bat I do not see supplanting Jay in CF. Look, defense matters too and having a REAL SS-2B tandem and CFer are important. Carp isn’t a SS or 2B. Tavaras “might” be able to play CF but it is premature to project him there. And moving Wong to SS is not going to happen.

    2013:

    Jay CF
    Beltran RF
    Holliday LF
    Craig 1B
    Molina C
    Freese 3B
    Descalso/Skip/Carp 2B (Wong after AS break?)
    Furcal if healthy SS (if not ???)

    Rotation not as settled as some think:

    Waino
    Carp
    Westbrooke
    Garcia/Kelly/Lynn/Rosenthal/???

    Perhaps someone like Miller or Rosenthal force themselves into the equation.

    What all this means is the Cards NEED a SS if Furcal is not healthy. Kozma’s September was nice but his career #s indicate it was an outlier and he is not the everyday answer. And Descalso was exposed there on an everyday basis. But if we do not trade for one he is likely the it failing a healthy Furcal. I feel SS is a weakness given Furcal’s health but one the Cards will probably enter the season living with hoping to scarmble to the AS break and find an answer at the trade deadline. A LH releiver is a must as is a RH hitting OFer with some pop off the bench.

    Reply

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