In a free preview of Insider, ESPN's Buster Olney writes that Yankees GM Brian Cashman is likely to take a surprisingly hard line during contract extension talks with Robinson Cano. That said, ownership could step in to make a deal happen like they have with Alex Rodriguez and Bernie Williams in the past. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors…
- Two of the items on the GM Meetings agenda are instant replay and the next wave of PEDs. The latter is a growing concern within the game.
- Olney lists Francisco Liriano, James Loney, Stephen Drew, and Melky Cabrera as players who could take a one-year contract this winter in an effort to rebuild value.
- It would make sense for the Giants to explore a long-term extension for Buster Posey at some point this offseason. The backstop is all the way back from his ankle injury and could soon add an MVP to his two World Series rings and Rookie of the Year award.
Once you give one 10yr/250m to an infielder over 30, and you realize it was a bad idea and you don’t do it again.
I was under the impression it wasn’t his idea to do it the first time.
Posey should get a Braun/Longoria type deal now!
That implies that he would take one. Both those guys didn’t have his resume after their 3rd year in the league.
Apples to oranges. Longoria signed his deal six days into his big league career. Posey has two rings and soon, an MVP.
Doesn’t have to be the SAME deal, but the idea is the same.
Yeah ownership step in and give Cano maybe Arod’s contract, which has turn to be really good deal. They should take note of the Cardinals and how they don’t get tide up with these huge contracts. Who did better, the Angels or the Cards?
Contract negotiations of that magnitude are generally handled by ownership anyway. That’s not to say Cashman wouldn’t be against the idea of a deal that large.
Aren’t contracts usually negotiated by the GM and approved by ownership.?
If we want to get technical, most teams have a head “negotiator” to handle negotiations. But contracts like A-Rods and the one Cano will presumably sign, ownership will be involved every step of the way.
Contracts of that magnitude usually involve in a large part the owners. $5-10M deals don’t matter to the owners, but giving $200M+ to one player very likely will outlive the time that most GM’s will be in charge of their team. May not be negociated by Owner, but they don’t even get close in discussions without involving ownership.
I could see the giants giving Posey what the marlins gave Hanley Ramirez or what the cubs gave Starlin Castro,
I hope Casham gets his way, but Steinbrenners will butt in and give Cano and Co. whatever he wants.
Historically 2nd basemen do not perform well once they hit their mid 30’s. Keeping that in mind if I were Cashman I’d offer Cano/Boras a guaranteed 5 year/$125MM deal with a relatively easy 6th year vesting option and that’s it. Assuming the 6th year vesting option vested that would have him playing for the Yankees through the age of 35. If the Yankees haven’t learned by now that paying players into their late 30’s crazy amounts of money is a mistake they never will. BTW, I hope ownership/Randy Levine and Hank Steinbrenner stay out of any negotiations. Leave the wheeling and dealing to Cashman.
I really see Cano as a dodger next offseason. I think their spending and hole at 2B is really disturbing.
What has more value to the Yankees: trading Cano now for high quality prospects, or to compete another season with 150 wRC+ before letting him go for a compensation pick? I’m assuming they don’t want to give him an A-Rodesque contract.
I think its highly unlikely that Cano ends up on another team. Cashman is just playing hardball. Nobody will give him close to what he is asking for. Maybe a 6 year, high average annual salary gets it done.
Don’t fool yourself someone will offer him more then 6 years and a salary in the low to mid $20’s per. You don’t have to look any further then what the Tigers offered Prince Fielder.
He’ll be 37 at the end of that contract (i.e. 6 year contract extension), and historically 2B don’t age too well, I think Cashman is wise enough to know that. If the Yankees ownership are serious about not wanting to pay luxury tax, I’m not sure how they can fit Cano into their budget. It only takes one GM/ownership group to give Cano want he wants.
If the Yankees don’t feel they can or will re-sign him at any point during the 2013 season he will be traded at the deadline. The Yankees are not about to just get a sandwich pick for him. Trading him at the trade deadline in 2013 if it comes to that will still net the Yankees a tidy sum of players from a respective team.
Don’t the Yankees normally not discuss extensions during the season? I could be completely wrong though. If so, my bad. I think if they were to start with Cano, they would have a better shot at winning if they were to have him for the whole season rather than 2/3 of it.
Normally you are correct. But the Yankees already broke that unwritten rule once with Cano when they signed him to his current 6 year deal prior to him even reaching his 1st year of arbitration.
No way does Posey get a Longoria, Rameriez or Castro deal. I see it being closer to a Mauer deal. Joe signed a long term contract after he won MVP, he plays catcher, and is loved in the area. Sounds like Posey to me. Plus, Posey has two rings and ROY. For a position that is very thin offensively, if he gets a long term contract it will be over $150 million. Nice try Giants fans, but you will have to shovel out more to keep your beloved baby faced Posey.
Posey is four years away from free agency while Mauer was in his walk year. Again, apples to oranges. I can see something like 7/112 as a starting point.
2013: $6 million
2014: $10 million
2015: $13 million
2016: $17 million
2017: $20 million (first FA year)
2018: $22 million
2019: $24 million
Mauer got that deal after 6yrs in the majors, Posey basically only has 2 full yrs in the league. No way giants give Posey $150m right now. Posey still has 4yrs left of arbitration, I could see the giants buying those 4yrs and 2extra yrs as well. A 6yr/$80-$90m would not be bad for either side. Posey will still get a chance for another big contract at age 31
I know the typical rule of thumb with non-super twos is 40%, 60% and 80% of free agent value for each year of arbitration. I’m going to make an assumption that for super twos it’s something like 30%, 50%, 70% and 90%.
With Matt Swartz’s $5.9M arb projection for Posey, that would assume a free agent value of $19.7M (assuming he should receive 30%). Years 2, 3 and 4 would then be $9.8M, $13.8M and $17.7M, respectively, or $47.2M over four years.
It’s not fair to think 4/$47.2M is a starting point, because Posey will have to take a discount on the out years 2-4 to get the guaranteed money. Taking a 15% haircut on years 2 & 3, and 20% on year 4 would yield a 4/$40.1M contract.
I think it would be worthwhile for both sides to explore buying out some free agent years as well. Looking at a $20M free agent value with a 20% discount would yield $16M per season. Tack on two more years at $16M for another $32M.
That would put the offer at 6/$72.1M, which would put him at 32 & turning 33 at the end of the contract. Even if he’s not catching anymore, he should at the very least be able to play 1B, if not another position. Perhaps throw an option for a 7th year at $20M with a $4M buyout to bring the total value to 6/$76.1M guaranteed, with potentialy value of 7/$92.1M.
If Posey signs a 6yr deal he will be 31 at the end of the contract, not 32 or 33. Just to clarify.
I’d offer Cano 5 years/$125MM with a vesting option that would take it to six years/$150MM. It’d make him by far the richest 2nd baseman in the history of the game and it’d be relatively short enough for the Yankees to get maximum value out of the deal.
I’d offer Posey 3 years/$24MM with the deal heavily back loaded ($4MM, $7MM, $13MM) to a) give Posey one more shot at arbitration before free agency and b) save the Giants some time and money, a one year cushion, if Posey falters.
Doubtful. that puts him a free agent at 36, and as a 2B with his plate discipline is not likely to go well. If he can get 200/10 that is a much better deal than 125/5. and maybe 50/4 if he is still good.