WEDNESDAY: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reports that the contract will be worth $100-110MM and contain an option for a seventh season. Tomorrow's arbitration hearing is unlikely to happen, Heyman adds.
TUESDAY: Bailey and the Reds are "on the one-yard line" in their extension talks, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN and MLB Network Radio.
MONDAY: Bailey confirmed to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer that he and the Reds are getting closer to a multi-year extension, though he didn't comment on specific parameters: "We're going in the right direction. The majority of it is worked out," the right-hander told Fay (Twitter links).
SUNDAY: Homer Bailey and the Reds are "getting close" on a six-year deal worth around $100MM, Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer tweets. Earlier today, ESPN's Jim Bowden reported Reds GM Walt Jocketty had said he was hopeful the two sides could reach a deal. Bailey is represented by Excel Sports Management.
Bailey is eligible for free agency after the season, and as a relatively young pitcher coming off a strong season in Cincinnati (209 innings, 3.49 ERA, 8.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9), he figures to be in line for a large contract once he does. Bailey has asked for $11.6MM in his last year of arbitration eligibility, with the Reds filing for $8.7MM. He made $5.35MM in 2013.
If Bailey were to sign a six-year, $100MM contract, it would essentially amount to a five-year, $90MM deal that begins in 2015, given that the arbitration process controls his 2014 salary. Such a deal would likely have made Bailey the second-highest-paid pitcher in this year's free-agent class, behind Masahiro Tanaka (depending, of course, on the contracts Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana receive, although it's difficult to see either of them approaching $90MM). That seems reasonable, given Bailey's age and talent. Clayton Kershaw's recent seven-year, $215MM contract came with between five and six years of service time, although clearly, Bailey isn't Kershaw's peer. Another recent touchstone for pitchers approaching free agency was Cole Hamels' six-year, $144MM contract, signed halfway through the 2012 season.
If the Reds are able to sign Bailey, it will reduce the amount of talent in the 2014-15 free agent starting pitching class, which also includes Max Scherzer and James Shields. Bailey's deal would come in the midst of a flurry of February extensions that includes Coco Crisp of the Athletics, Michael Brantley of the Indians, and Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran and Craig Kimbrel of the Braves.
For the Reds, signing Bailey long-term would be by far the biggest move in what's been a quiet offseason — since firing manager Dusty Baker, the Reds have traded catcher Ryan Hanigan to the Rays, re-signed reliever Manny Parra, and added infielder Skip Schumaker and catcher Brayan Pena. They've also lost star outfielder Shin-Soo Choo and pitcher Bronson Arroyo to free agency.
Crazy to think of a player like Bailey’s journey to/in the major leagues has been. Gets called up at a very early age, struggles to find consistency and control for awhile and like you said looked like a lost cause, and then slowly but surely turning it all around. Who knew just a couple of years ago Bailey would even be worth this much, let alone even still be on the team. This unpredictable craziness is why I love this game so much.
Scherzer’s era may have not been the most desirable at times, but he always had good strikeout numbers. In 2012 he struck out an amazing 231 batters in just 187.2 innings. Looking at the success he had in 2013, I can’t really say it wasn’t a complete surprise to see him breakout.
The Reds win by having great pitching, and great defense. Locking up a potential ace, or at the least a good 2/3 in rotation is going to keep the Reds at the very least competitive. If they can manage to keep Latos, they will have one of the best rotations in baseball for years to come. Bailey, Latos, Cueto, Leake, Cingrani through 2015 will keep them on an upward trajectory, and if they catch lightning in a bottle with Billy Hamilton they will have a shot at a championship. Good move for the Reds.
We also have David Holmberg too who could be a solid starter.
I think you’re simplifying the qualifications a little too much. Are you saying guys like Chris Tillman, Jarrod Parker, and Doug Fister are worth 100 million? Not that I have anything against those guys, but I would be surprised to see them him that mark.
Parker no, he’s too far from free agency. Tillman, no…Fister, ya maybe if he has another good year this year. Sure there’s more factors, like how near to free agency they are. In general, my point is that 100M doesn’t get you what it used to.
Well, I mean I was talking about Parker when he does reach free agency (and I’m certain he’s going to improve, no doubt in my mind). But given the 100 million dollar mark really is for ace type pitchers (barring Tanaka), I don’t see Parker getting that much because he’s been projected (and seems to be heading) as a solid #2 starter.
Though I get your point in general and just took your post a little too literally.
Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and St. Louis all have very good teams with the core locked up for at least the next few years. The Brewers reloaded this season and appear to be a fairly strong team, and the Cubs are going to be bringing up all kinds of top young talent over the next few years. The NL Central has the looks of being one of the best divisions in baseball for awhile.
This is implying that Bailey wasn’t solid for the Reds? He’s been their #3 option the past two+ years
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That is awesome. Mind if I steal sometime?
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It’s hard to stay in shape when you eat from the dollar menu!
I originally thought that Bailey was a sure lose for the Reds…Thought that he’d jet for Texas or be traded because of his asking price BUT I’m amazed by how Bailey has actually shown a want for sticking with his team…add this to how straight forward her was after his last no hitter and how driven he is on the mound…this guy wants to win, don’t think he has anything else on his mind but trying to beat the batter each and everytime……He’ll continue to get better and better with that type of drive…Hold on Cincy this man will be the ace that they were predicting when they drafted him!!!
Reds fans have no reason to gloat over Brewers fans.. Since Reds out drew the Brewers by only 3,264 fans total in the 2013 season. Brewers out drew Reds in 2010, 2011 and 2012..
Reds have had far more success in last 4 seasons then Brewers and yet Brewers fans show up far more then Reds fans at the gate.
When Reds fans complain about ownership not spending enough money they need only look in the mirror as to why.. Attend games in good enough numbers the the Reds could afford better players.. Thats why this Bailey deal makes no sense in their salary structure.. They are already without much flexibility.. And no impact talent coming from farm to offset high end salaries.. Its a recipe for disaster in short order.
What? No impact talent? Robert S. is a ace in the making Hamilton still is a prospect and there are a bunch of high ceiling guys. To say no impact guys would be a false statement.
Hamilton is a prospect as is Stephenson… Beyond that name in impact prospect that will deliver for the Reds next two seasons? Because the small window the Reds have to win is closing fast.. You might not want to see that or hear that…
Well, surely we can throw Tony Cingrani into this conversation. And then you have Phillip Ervin, Yorman Rodriguez, David Holmberg, Jesse Winker, and Nick Travieso. There’s six players off the top of my head that are projected to become “impact” players for the Reds. Not to mention, any of these players could have a significant impact within the next two years.
Almost forgot Daniel Corcino and Carlos Contreras, too.
You know, the way I see it, the window is only getting larger and brighter as the years go on. We’ll eventually be beyond the days of Ryan Ludwick as our “power bat” and have young guys that will be healthier, stronger, cheaper, and under control for several years when they finally hit the roster.
This deal has albatross written all over it.
This gives me an idea of what Zimmermann will be asking for next year. Yay I guess?
He’s good for sure, but is he better than Matt Garza? Maybe, he is being paid for his no-hitters and not his overall body of work.
Big difference is that Garza is trending the wrong direction, plus his recent injury history isn’t promising.
Still, Bailey isn’t worth twice as much as Garza
Is Jordan Zimmermann worth twice as much as Garza? Because Zim and Bailey are the same age and have similar numbers. Zimmermann has been more consistent, but Bailey is trending in the right direction.
Yes, Zimmerman is better than Bailey. Bailey is worth 80-90 to me, not 100-110
Bailey isn’t getting twice what Garza got. Remember Garza was over 4 years and Bailey is over 6. So he’s getting 50% more.
That’s true, but he is still making more per year and has 2 more guaranteed years, also Garza had a very solid year last season.
Can anyone tell me Tanaka’s stats in the Major Leagues last season. Cant find them. How much is he making?
Nothing in the Minors either. Figure good way to compare Pitchers that are getting 22 million a year.
You are kinda like that charcoal commercial where that confused guy shows up to a spring cookout in a big, yellow winter coat and everyone thought he was missing but it was just winter. Spring and Baseball are around the corner!
“Bailey and the Reds are ‘on the one-yard line’.”
Going which direction?
Well, my suggestion of a 5/75ish deal on the FA market looks odd now. I know pitching is expensive or players in general. Very few contracts have shocked me this year, maybe 3 at most. This seems pretty surprising to me though.
If you can guarantee he will pitch the way he did in 2013 or better than he’s worth the 90+, but you can’t guarantee anything. The 5/75 I was thinking is the most I would have wanted the Twins to pay him in FA and that was pushing it to the very limit. That number would have gone up/down depending on what he did this season too, but apparently I wasn’t even close in what I’d believe he’d get.
Has anyone told BP yet……just wandering what he thinks of the deal….LOL JK