Is the Charlie Blackmon deal the beginning of a new trend that other free agents could follow in the coming seasons? Mark Feinsand of MLB.com asks this question and examines the subject in depth. The extension takes Blackmon out of a very crowded free agent pool next offseason that’s set to feature Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, Manny Machado and Dallas Keuchel, all of whom are widely expected to be the subjects of massive bidding wars. “After the past few markets, there’s no question this is going to become a trend,” one agent said of the pact. “You will see clubs look to sign players very young.” However, another agent believes that Blackmon made a mistake by signing the extension so early, as he’d have been the second-most coveted outfielder beyond Bryce Harper. The trade-off in this case is simple… a soon-to-be free agent in his 30s perhaps gave up some earnings upside, and in exchange doesn’t have to worry about what might or might not happen in a volatile free agent market next season.
A pair of other reactions to the Blackmon-Rockies accord…
- Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post views the extension through a different lens; he wonders how this pact will directly affect fellow Rockies star Nolan Arenado. Saunders believes that the Blackmon deal makes it significantly less likely that the Rockies can afford to keep Arenado in the fold for the long term. After all, the All-Star third baseman could command a deal in the $300MM range, which will certainly be difficult for the Rockies to manage in combination with the $94MM in new money they just guaranteed to Blackmon.
- Blackmon is just the latest in a line of players to take themselves out of the 2018-2019 free agent class, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The baseball world has been talking about the impending class for years, but Matt Harvey’s poor performance the past few seasons has largely taken the possibility of a nine-figure deal off the table, Jose Fernandez tragically passed away, and now Blackmon has extended his tenure with the Rockies. Others such as Anthony Rizzo, Corey Kluber and Anthony Rizzo could have been free agents this winter as well had they not signed long-term deals earlier in their careers. Though Greg Holland, Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Lucroy are among the unexpected additions to this class, it seems as though a class that once looked like an unprecedented convergence of free agent juggernauts has been watered down a bit.
My goodness… This class could’ve had Kershaw, Kluber, Jose Fernandez, Keuchel, Harper, Machado, Blackmon, Donaldson, Rizzo, and Dozier. Wow, that would’ve been insanely fun to watch. Still will be though
Harper and Machado are the entire class of free agents this coming winter.
The rest of them are over-the-hill old men, refugees looking for someone to take them in.
True that Donaldson is over 30, but he is a monster with the bat, and he is a team leader. Plenty of teams would love to get him on a 4 year deal.
Donaldson turns 33 on Dec 8th.
Drian Dozier is really good and not terribly old – only 30, which seems about right for a player’s first foray into free agency. He has also gotten better each season.
yeah… Kershaw, keuchel, donaldson and dozier are gonna be begging a team to sign them. sarcasm
“Refugee”? that’s a little mean CP.
They don’t all play for the Marlins?
That’s what the free agent position market is year after year, refugees on a beach in Greece.
Most FA position players should call the Long Island Ducks.
Rhys Hoskins is five months younger than Bryce Harper.
Genuflect on that as it’s well worth your time and positioning.
And two Anthony Rizzo’s apparently too, I might add.
This deal seems more like a 1 off than a trend setter. There aren’t as many 30+ players who could command a large extension. Blackmon for all purposes is a late bloomer with the bat. While I agree you may see young stud players extended early, there just aren’t as many older players where a deal like this won’t become an albatross. The Rockies also probably cost themselves any chance at signing their better and younger star in Arenado. Honestly in the end, the Rockies probably overpaid because very slim chance Blackmon is worth his pay at the end
He isn’t even worth it now to other clubs if you look at his splits.
Some think he left money on the table. Others say he isn’t worth what they committed to paying him.
Which is it? Can’t be both. Probably because it’s exactly what we should expect: an on-market contract.
Agreed. My initial reaction wasn’t wow Blackmon signed for a team friendly deal. If anything I was leaning towards the rox overpaying a little bit. I’d say it’s a market value deal for a really good but older player.
Anthony Rizzo and Anthony Rizzo***
Its odd phrasing to say Blackmon made a mistake. If Charlie is happy in Denver then its not like he’s hurting for money, hes got security. I think the more conservative market gives players a better chance to spend their career with one team, which is awesome.
Blackmon made the best decision to remain a Rockie.
So one agent thinks Blackmon may have cost himself some money? How many players lost money this offseason by trying to hold out for more?
Plot twist: the agent is Boras.
Addendum to the plot twist: Boras thinks Blackmon cost his clients money.
Nah, more will sign before the end of the season. Only a few teams can afford the few superstars that will command those large dollars. Even fewer will have a need for a SS or OF. While the Yankees have the dollars, they likely wont have the need. Who would they move to make room for Harper? Judge or Stanton? They have Didi at a reasonable salary, so why would they move him to play Machado at SS? Its not like he will provide 20MM+ in value over Didi. If their current team offers what they are looking for, they would be foolish not to take the offer.
In a scenario where they sign Harper, they would likely ask him to play centerfield or have a rotation of Judge, Stanton, and Harper going between RF, LF, and DH so they can still get their AB’s but stay healthy and rested. If they signed Machado, it would allow them to add a young superstar to an already stacked team. They would likely slide Didi over to second to create an all time defensive double play duo. Then they could have Drury in more of a Marwin Gonzalez super utility role and have Bird/Andujar at first, with Gleybar at 3rd.
The Yankees are losing Gardner soon; I’d assume Harper would take his spot. Plus, if you sign Harper you make room for him. The Yanks can rotate Judge and Stanton through the DH slot.
Yankees have a team option on Gardner for 2019.
With so many OF options though they may decline it and use that money to upgrade the pitchers
Or just use him as the fourth outfielder; he’s a perfect guy for that role. Good lefty bat, the defense still is good at all three positions; he could easily get 350-400 PAs just doing that. Although, of course, Aaron Hicks is a pretty similar player if he is healthy and playing well, which seems to be an issue with him. Although, I don’t quite know if even the Yankees can afford two 300+ million dollar players (and that’s without accounting for extensions for Judge and Sanchez)
Maybe… But it’s not set in stone. Despite his age, Brett Gardner’s arguably the best defensive LF in the game. Provided— Solid 20-20, high OBP, and .264 BA.
2017, He was arguably the best defensive LF in the game. Elite Defense — +20 DRS, +6.8 UZR in OF. Among all LF: #1 DRS (+17), and #2 UZR (+7.1) in 2017.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=fld&#…
Only a few teams can afford??
25 teams have signed deals for $100M or more.
(not OAK, CLE, PIT, KCR, CWS?)
Not sure the Marlins shouldn’t be in the short list of nots.
Yeah, they signed Stanton to a massively backloaded deal, but there was no way they could pay it.
The Yankees have zero need for an outfielder nor a SS. They also have zero need for more offense. If anything they should grab Donaldson on a three year deal and plug him at 3rd, then grab an ace pitcher or three.
Matt Harvey serves as a fine example of why Blackmon made a good choice. I’m guessing Harvey wishes he’d signed one of those “team friendly” early extensions.
To paraphrase…a $108 million contract in the hand is worth $175 million in the bush.
Eric Byrnes had a great line (and good perspective) about the notion that Blackmon made a mistake signing early and (potentially) leaving money on the table…
“His great, great, great, great grand kids might have to get a job one day, it’ll be OK.”
I fully expect the Rockies already know they couldn’t sign Arenado. They have McMahon who can play third and they have another good 3B prospect in A ball. The name eludes me. It won’t be shocking to see the Yankees wait for him as Elsbury’s contract should be up, freeing up the cash. Machado is a psychopath. They aren’t going to sign Harper with Judge and Stanton, especially with the Steinbrenner kids fiscal responsibility. They will wait for money to clear to spend..
Machado is a psychopath? Where does that come from?
Maybe he’s a Red Sox fan.
You’re probably thinking of Colton Welker. All 4 of the Rockies top hitting prospects play 3B or project to be very capable of 3B. Ryan McMahon, Brendan Rodgers, Welker, and Ryan Vilade.
Harper in left, Judge in Center , and Stanton in right would be an impressive outfield. Keuchel and Kershaw added to rotation. First baseman needed. Bird is going to be a wasted talent if he can’t stay on the field.
Judge is not a center fielder. No chance.
Don’t tell Aaron Boone. Judge has already played a bunch of innings in CF this year. But I agree, Judge should not be playing there.
That’ll be very affordable.
The switch of agencies was probably the best decision he made last year. It’s really nice to see a player loyal to a team, location, culture and willingness to not be over greedy in his worth. Smart move.
Personally, I don’t see this signing as the Rockies moving on from Arenado. In fact, I think it’s just the opposite. Dick Monfort had never opened his check book nearly as wide as he has these past two seasons before. I think he’s on board with whatever plan Bridich has outlined and Arenado is a centerpiece to it. Signing Charlie was step 2 to retaining Nolan with the first being the great bullpen. Step 3 will be actually proving the Rockies are for real and want to win which is the most important thing to Arenado.