Major League Baseball has released a scientific study that was designed to examine “possible causes of the surge in home run rate in Major League Baseball in the past several years,” as its abstract puts it. The study itself is available at this link. Those interested in reading an independent breakdown should check out the assessment of the Baseball Prospectus team, which has covered this topic well for quite some time.
Per the report, the focus was on utilizing Statcast data and a variety of means of evaluating the physical properties of the game balls utilized in recent seasons. That follows years of increases in home runs — along with additional strikeouts and quite a few other changes in the game environment — that have led to accusations (increasingly supported by evidence and analysis) that some change to the game ball has occurred.
While the findings don’t suggest that there has been any change that increases the ball’s “launch conditions” — that is, the ball isn’t juiced — they do find that “aerodynamic properties of the baseballs have changed” in a manner that corresponds to the increase in batted-ball distance. In other words, balls are being struck in roughly the same manner, but are going further than previously.
That largely seems to confirm, then, that a recent change of some kind is the underlying cause of the homer boom — a major modification in the nature of the game that has caused changes with in-game tactics and drastically impacted player valuations. But the committee did not precisely identify the physical reason for the changes in flight characteristics, and in fact specifically found that the manufacturing process and materials weren’t the cause.
Interestingly, the study determined: “The yearly reduction in average drag, which accounts for the change in the home run rate, is small compared to the variation in drag among baseballs within a given year.” For that reason, perhaps, many of its suggested actions revolve around standardizing the factors that influence drag.
Certainly, readers will want to read through the entire report — or, at least, its essential findings. At this point, it’s not yet clear exactly how and when the league will pursue changes. But if there are systematic efforts to restore the baseball’s previous flight characteristics, that could portend yet more adjustments and changes to the marketplace, as it reacts to observed changes in game conditions and outcomes.
So many questions yet to be answered. Why were the “aerodynamic properties” of the baseball ever tampered with to begin with?
And did this have any effect on the “blister boom” of last year?
Exactly. MLB wants faster games yet want more offense. Pitchers affected by the changes.
Put asses in the seats.
Doesn’t this go back to mid-2016 when they started using baseballs with slightly lower seams? Seems pretty obvious what would happen. Hard to imagine that was an unintentional change.
Exactly. If something about the ball itself was changed within the past couple years it’s because MLB wanted it that way, and someone signed off on it. Perhaps with this information (albeit somewhat vague) coming to light Rob Manfred will be less rabidly defensive when asked about it in interviews. You better believe MLB would have taken the ball manufacturers to the woodshed if HR numbers began trending in the opposite direction two years ago.
Didn’t some other source already run a scientific study and confirm that the baseballs are the primary (but not only) reason behind the HR surge?
Yeah I think fangraphs was the one that put outthe article
Has anybody been looking at the bats?
The seams were made wider on the baseballs. Last year there was an article about this after Verlander made comments about the baseballs and blister issues. The article had a 2016 and 2017 ball side by side and it was pretty clear the seams were wider on the 2017 ball. Verlander also mentioned the ball was harder as well. Both would result in traveling further.
Guys it’s so very clear to me now we live in a reflection of our old universe. In 2015 the world ended and at the same moment a new on came to be. Shifting our mind/souls to the new universes “copies” of us. The Mandela effect is making us remember the old timeline resulting in a sudden change in HR rates.
Hey Phoenix. Your explanation is as good as any. One thing, though. If we did pass into a new reality (which means none of us reading this ascended) then there would be disagreement into the individual memories of baseball past. There is no disagreement going on that I am aware of.
No one is claiming that they remember baseball being one thing and other people remembering another. Now, if the corporate interests truly have no clue on why homerun rates have gone up and they did not tamper with the ball, then we have an issue (and a theory). But as we know, corporations like to collude and make back door deals all the time. Me thinks MLB and Spalding worked something out and promised secrecy, at least for the forseeable future.
So let’s see if we’ve got this straight now. According to the study, the manufacturing of the balls hasn’t changed, but their aerodynamic qualities have. That would be a perfect explanation if was only possible.
bluesky – its possible.. probably not likely..but possible. Everything manufactured is comprised of components, Each component has a tolerance that it can be made to (example: string used for seams has dimensions for length, width, perhaps even weight). If every component is at maximum limit the ball would be different than if every component is at minimum. Most likely the range is insignificant but once you also add in process tolerances ( how tight the seams, any process for the leather etc etc) – it may be possible for mlb to change the ball without changing what they consider acceptable final product ( not sure but I am guessing if they officially changed the ball there would be some sort of process or need union acceptance that they want to avoid). Without knowing parameters or processes I couldn’t tell you how realistic all this is but it is possible.
Seems kind of far-fetched to me that changes to these tolerances would not be considered to be changes to the manufacturing of the ball. Saying they might have changed it without changing it is no less contradictory as an explanation. Maybe someone who’s had the opportunity to read the entire report can clear up this contradiction.
Seems like they smoothed the ball(or laces), reducing in-flight drag. It also made the ball tougher to grip and spin, causing the blister issue…
The morning show host of the Pittsburgh FM sports talk station used to be the Pirates beat writer for the Pittsburgh Post Gazette years ago…therefore, he is used to being on the field for batting practice.
FWIW, he went to one last, said he picked up a ball and it was obvious to him how much harder the ball was (he compared it to a golf ball) than it used to be and how the home run spike is not surprising in that context.
So the radio hosts in Pittsburgh are good sources of information? That seems contrary to every post you’ve ever made.
Interestingly, this joke of an article trying to pass as a study attempts to yet fails to find anything wrong with the sport by which it is studying and paid by. Thankfully, this skillfully shaped opine (because that is the only word this rapidly becoming unbearable to read of a website will use) was able to provide clarity while creating intrigue so that we to can waste portions of our lives learning nothing, thanks Todd, you the best man.
Just like the pitchers said, it was the ball.
They already x-rayed the balls. Not sure why MLB is ignoring this article? fivethirtyeight.com/features/juiced-baseballs/
Good article.
8 balls is a very small N. So while a nice article, they looked at too small a sample size. Given that MLB preps 6 dozen game balls per game, that is over 150,000 baseballs for a season. 4 balls per season is less than .0025% of all the balls used that year. A reason for further study maybe, but hardly anything to draw any conclusions.
So the ball has changed. Big deal!
But so many assume that if the ball has changed it was done intentionally by MLB, which is not necessarily true. They are using components that in an of themselves could change. And while they manufacturing process might on the surface appear the same, subtle changes in that process combined with subtle changes in the components could easily produce the changes seen.
Plus, it is not like the baseball itself is the sole reason for increased HR’s. Weather, a smaller strike zone by umpires, and yes, the emphasis on launch angle all likely have as much, if not larger impact on the HR total than the ball itself.
I am all for trying to study the ball, the game, and any other reason for the increased HR rate. But don’t start out with the idea that so many have, that the increased HR rate is a bad thing or an affront to the game.