Padres righty Jacob Nix has decided not to undergo Tommy John surgery at the present, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter. Rather, he’ll attempt to rehab back from what is described as a small tear of his ulnar collateral ligament.
It’s always good to hear that there’s a possible non-surgical path back from an injury to that area. TJ procedures are remarkably effective at giving pitchers a new lease on life, but they generally come with a year-plus recovery timeline and hardly guarantee a full return to pre-surgery ability levels.
The 23-year-old Nix has already had a circuitous path to the majors, so he’ll no doubt be relieved that there’s a possibility he’ll avoid another lengthy detour. Back in 2014, he was slated to sign an over-slot deal to join the Astros organization, but that fell apart as part of the Brady Aiken saga.
Nix landed with the Friars in the third round of the following year’s draft and moved steadily up the ladder thereafter. He turned in ten sparkling upper-minors outings in 2018, working to a 1.84 ERA with 44 strikeouts and nine walks over 58 2/3 innings, before getting his first call to the bigs.
While he was knocked around in his first taste of the majors, Nix entered camp this year with a shot at earning another look. The elbow woes eliminated that possibility, but he could still get back into the mix later this season if he’s able to progress through the rehab program.
Anderson Espinoza says see you in 2+ years….
Masahiro Tanaka says hi.
He is the only one this has worked on. So quit using that line.
Ervin Santana did it too
I mean, proof is proof. Even if the odds are against him, no point in throwing away 2 years of his career if he doesn’t have to.
Santana did not have a UCL tear. Here is the full list of all the players that have had PRP for a UCL tear. Santana is not on it. Cross reference that with the tab for players that have had TJ surgery.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN6…
This is a relatively new process so success is sure to be relatively suppressed. Perhaps you don’t understand that.
PRP is new? I had a PRP injection in my knee in 2011. On that list the first MLB athlete to get one was 2008.
By medical standards yes, that’s new. The procedure itself may be well understood, but the process at it applies to baseball players is still being figured out
Tommy John surgery used to be a lot harder to come back from than it is today, because the after-surgery parts are now much better understood.
Always good to try to avoid surgery if you can. Better chance to establish himself on the padres team now before all the better pitching prospects break in.
The platelet and stem cell shots seem to be worth a shot on the small tears.
So far one player that has received PRP has returned and not had TJ surgery within a year. Tanaka. Several have had PRP, returned, and then still needed TJ surgery.
At least he is on the 40 man so he won’t be getting minors pay
Yeah he will. He won’t get service time being on IL in the minors.
That’s inaccurate. He will be getting paid and be accruing service time since he ended last year on the Big League roster and was never optioned in the spring before he hurt himself. It’s how Alex Dickerson has two and a half years of service time, despite not playing a game the past two years.
He will earn service time on the IL. He was on the active roster at the time of the injury.
According to league rules, an MLB regular season lasts 187 days; if a player spends 172 of those days on a major league roster or injured list, he earns a year of service time.
m.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/service-time
Nope. Just get the surgery over with. At worst you become a pen piece when yates stammen are gone. He’s got the fastball for it. Him and lamet would be deadly out of the pen, if healthy. Be reminiscent of Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland when the Royals won it all.
Plus I think this is where baseball is heading. Starters going 5-6 innings and out before 3rd time through the order, relief guy gets you 1-2 innings to the 7th or 8th and bring in your best guys for 7th 8th 9th. Gonna need guys who can give you 2 ish innings. 3 if you go 3-3-2-1 or 3-3-1-1-1
Corey Knebel pitched 3 seasons like that but needs Tommy John now. It’s the beginning of Nix’s career…. just get it over with
About a third of pitchers who get TJS never come back from it, according to data. So I would argue Nix and the doctors should make that choice. Surgery is still surgery and it’s still scary to think about.
Here is the full list of TJ surgeries. Just over 80% of MLB starting pitchers that have had the surgery have returned from it.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN6…
Here is the list of MLB pitchers that have rehabbed a UCL injury and returned to pitching without eventually having TJ surgery.
Masahiro Tanaka.
It sounds like Jacob told the doctor “Nix the surgery.”
Where is the rimshot app when you need it?
Badda Bing!
So Nix will be out 2 1/2 years. The rest of this season for rehab and 18 months after the TJ surgery.
Why do they wait to do the surgery? Other than Tanaka, I can’t think of a single time that rehab worked. The odds are not in his favor.
Ugh. You think they’d learn after what happened with Robbie Erlin and Anderson Espinoza. Guess not.
My Call – He knows he’s overmatched in the show. He will milk 2-3 months rehab. Then, after a month, surgery. Next season he won’t throw until July/August. Now it’s 2021 his comeback fails. He walks with almost $2M and got to watch Manny and Company from the best seat in the house – the dugout. Just mix in real life with baseball and it becomes obvious what he will do.