The Tigers’ asking price on lefty Matthew Boyd continues to be an impediment for interested teams, Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported this week on the Big Time Baseball podcast. Heyman notes that multiple GMs from other clubs used the phrase “over the top” when describing Detroit’s ask on Boyd, who whiffed 13 hitters in yesterday’s win but also continued his recent struggles with keeping the ball in the park by allowing a pair of homers. Boyd has fanned a ridiculous 32 percent of the hitters he’s faced in 2019 and walked just 4.5 percent of them; that K-BB% of 27.5 trails only Gerrit Cole, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale, so he’s in some elite company with regard to his combined ability to miss bats and avoid walks. However, Boyd also allowed only seven homers through his first 12 starts (72 2/3 innings) but has now served up 12 long balls in 34 1/3 innings dating back to June 2.
Boyd is still just 28 with three and a half seasons of control remaining to go along with his elite K/BB skills (and a $2.6MM salary). His penchant for serving up the long ball also has to be a source of trepidation as teams weigh a pursuit of the lefty, though.
More chatter on the rebuilding Tigers…
- Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press provides an excellent look at a number of trade chips for the Tigers, listing potential suitors and, in some instances, pulling back the curtain a bit on previous trade talks. For instance, Fenech writes that the Tigers and Astros discussed a trade involving Nicholas Castellanos last summer, with Houston offering outfielder Derek Fisher in return. Castellanos’ stock has dipped since last year and he’s now a rental, but Fisher’s stock hasn’t exactly risen itself since last July. That still seems like a lofty ask for the Tigers to make for only two months of Castellanos, but the prior interest is nevertheless noteworthy now that Castellanos appears a near-surefire bet to be traded.
- In addition to closer Shane Greene, who is as obviously available as any player in baseball, right-hander Joe Jimenez is also available in trade talks, per Fenech. Multiple clubs, including the Mets and Rays, have inquired on Jimenez — a 24-year-old once heralded as Detroit’s future close. Jimenez averages better than 95 mph on his heater and has no issue missing bats (12 K/9 since 2017), but his control has long been shaky and he’s averaged 1.93 HR/9 in 2019. He’s also controlled through the 2023 season, so the Tigers have zero urgency to move him. Fenech adds that the Dodgers have inquired on Greene, though if anything it’d be more surprising if the bullpen-needy L.A. club hadn’t done so by now.
LOS TIGRES DEL NORTE!
Heard Boyd was money last night.
Check that…..aside from 13 Ks he wasn’t.
The Matt Boyd hype train is coming to a screeching halt. Most of you fell for it. Unbelievable that people bought into the idea Boyd is worth numerous prospects. For what, less than mediocre pitching and a really good half of 2019? Yeah, Boyd is not worth the fleecing Avila is looking for.
Buyers beware.
Okay
This coming from someone who wants the attention away from Boyd and towards Stroman imo.
13Ks with 0BB is special. 9 of 12 balls that were put in play yesterday off Boyd went for hits which is a BABIP of an absurd and very unlucky .750 avg.
There was a homerun off a above the letters fastball which is what the catcher was calling for that the batter was late on but got barrel on it which carries out of the park opposite field…
Hey just to let you know the home run balls don’t go towards babip since they weren’t put in play.
What wasn’t special is the 4 runs and 9 hits he gave up in what 5 innings+.
In the new MLB game, everyone swings from their heels and he was facing the Chicago White Sox who last time anyone checked had very little to play for this year.
Before crowning him “special” let’s see him put together a solid streak of dominance over time. To date just another journeyman who can throw hard!
Journeyman? He’s on his 2nd team. Knock ‘em if you want, but at least tell the truth. Alternative stat much?
Have your pitchers in October make mistakes, give up 4 runs in 5+ innings including 2 bombs and come back with your excuses.
The attention toward Stroman is warranted. He’s the better pitcher, he’s the more proven pitcher and he’s not the arm the Jays gave up to get David Price. Boyd also pitches in the weakest division in baseball. He’s trending backward, and that can’t be denied.
I said a month ago Boyd wasn’t worth what Detroit is looking for. He’s slowing proving it, and nobody cares how many years he has left when he’s a glorified #3 at best.
The two fly balls hit for homers against him yesterday would be flyouts in October most likely. His 142Ks versus 20BBs would play real nice in the playoffs when power strikeout pitching beats up hitting quite often.
Let’s say for argument sake Boyd is a #3SP with big strikeout potential. 3.5 years of control of such a pitcher is a huge asset and very valuable in today’s game imo.
I watch numerous pop ups turn into homers every single night.
It’s called the AL East.
Please stop with the excuses. What was the problem the start before the last one? Or the one before that? The Indians and Royals potent attack too much? What will happen when he has to face real teams? He is 1 more bad start away from rising that ERA over 4. You can downplay that all you want except for the fact that mediocre teams are getting to him and his below average heater.
Not saying the fastball is the problem. Just saying Matt Boyd isn’t as good as you and others believe him to be, nor is he worth what Avila and the Tigers want, nor is he the guy contenders should be look at as the first option. Or second. Maybe not even third.
You pick KC and Clev yet do not mention top hitting clubs like Tex/Minn/Atl in his last 6 starts as well.
Boyd has a good fastball. Better than Stroman or MadBum.
You cannot fake a 142K/20BB ratio. His BABIP is on the unlucky side as well. He is more dominant than Stroman and his 1.26whip and 7K per 9.
Stroman is a solid SP whose strong grounder % has helped his era to stay down in the year of the homer but playoff time when it cold and balls do not fly out of the parks so easily I will take the more dominant strikeout SP who is cheaper with two more years of control than Stroman has.
Hmm well said Dustin
Hes a #3 that doesnt spend most of the season on the IL
Ok, sure. This is true.
I was referring to speed. Boyd has an effective heater.
Again, control over an inferior pitcher with no track record is not a strong leverage tactic. Oh, and all those teams I “failed” to mention aren’t Boston and New York. AL East is the toughest place to pitch.
Again, as you fail to realize, I’d rather give up less for Stroman than give up more for Boyd. That is the cold hard truth. Come to terms with it.
Imo that last start helped his trade value and hurt it. If you watched the game you would have seen dominant stuff that made good hitters look silly. 13Ks and 3 pop ups for outs anything else hit found grass or a hole for a .750BABIP. Not to mention balls are just flying out everywhere not to mention on a warm day in Chicago.
I agree Dustin, those kind of K numbers help make a gym feel better about the stuff and the upside, but man, he doesn’t seem to be able to keep the other team from scoring even with the Ks, which is what really matters. 3.87 ERA now, FIP is a bit better.
I do think last night didn’t move the needle one way or the other though. Still don’t think Detroit moves him because no one gives them close to what they want and Detroit doesn’t need to move him.
Make a GM
bencole, a 3.87 ERA is 16% above league average, so if the vast majority of pitchers failing to prevent runs is problematic to you (66% of them have worse ERAs), you may want to talk to the MLB about their juiced balls. He’s squarely above average and basically considered “good” in 2019 as the game is trending toward better offenses.
Yeah I agree he’s slightly above average without much of a track record. In previous discussions Dustin and I have debated this, and I’ve said that I believe Boyd is likely a top-end 3 or thereabouts. So my comment was more to follow up our prior back and forths than to make one conclusive statement. We have talked a bit about whether the early numbers were a fluke or not, I like half or a bit more of his improvement to be real, but when I speak of run prevention it’s the roughly 6 ERA in the last month plus and his history I’m concerned about. In prior threads Dustin and I have debated his trade value in terms of top prospects, he’s suggested Boyd is worth a whole bunch, my analysis above is in response to that rather than just the average pitcher.
Those K numbers aren’t going to support Detroits asking price for him.
If he’s so good, and so controllable, then why would Detroit move such a precious commodity when every team is looking for pitching?
Just trying to get some team to bite on potential and control.
Rocky
Actually the reason we are willing to trade such a pitcher is because our farm system gets an A grade on pitching prospects but a D grade on hitters. We drafted hitting at 5 overall this year and will again at 2 or 3 overall next year but still need some upside hitting prospects to balance our system.
He is a free agent right about the time we hope to be contending as well so the control years he has left does line up well with our next competitive window.
13 K’s is pretty dope, bet he’d turn into a legit ace on the Rays or Astros cuz he clearly has the necessary skills jus needs to work on his approach. Seems to leave a lot of pitches over the plate when there’s 2 outs/he’s a pitch from ending the inning
Agree with you, those teams will work on his spin and get him to throw more 4-seam.
Verlander has given up more homers and has a FIP of 4.00. Some pitchers are just flyball pitchers and the ball these days hurts them more then others. The slight difference is Verlander gives up far less hits…is that because of his stuff or is it because he has better fielders taking away hits in Houston?
And Verlander has consistently outperformed his FIP, in fact he has every year for the last 5 seasons. FIP is a great estimator, but there are certain pitchers who consistently outperform their FIP, which isn’t luck.
Less than mediocre? His ERA is 16% better than the rest of the pitchers in the league and he was almost exactly average last season
Thank you Yankees employee of Cashman trying to drive the price down and steal a top of the rotation LHSP star…
Yankees and a few other teams are masters of the “lowball offers”…
Trying to drive the price down on players they covet.
Wasn’t it great how Verlander pitched the Yankees to the WS Championship a few years ago?! What?! lowball offer from the Yanks and he went to Houston?!
Wasn’t it great how the Yanks landed Gerrit Cole with their lowball offer?!
What?! He went to the Astros too?!
Yanks are trying to win a championship with a Starting Staff full of bondo and bailing wire…..
It hasn’t worked so far.
It probably won’t work this year either.
Just bite the bullet and pay for Boyd and stop with the rotation magic tricks Cash lol !
You are forgetting one important thing…he is worth whatever someone is willing to give up. If we know anything, we know that there have been many lopsided trades over the years. Nobody has a crystal ball and prospects are just that. More often that not, prospects never materialize, so most people truly overestimate what their value really is. Just saying…
This is true. But I have been saying for quite awhile that Boyd is a mediocre pitcher. Hot April and May last year, terrible June, mediocre the rest of the way. Even hotter April and May this year, and a terrible June again. He may be striking out batters at an unheard of pace for him, but the hard contact rate and HR rate is way up in June. Those types of numbers do not suggest that he is worthy of a premium return. But, as you point out, he is if some team is willing to part with that.
As a Tiger fan, my only hope is that Avila does not move him for less than premium prospects. If asking for such is an impediment to a trade, so be it. My thoughts, for what it is worth, is that Houston is the best team to make a deal, if one can be made. They have enough prospects that they could afford to part with one premium one to get Boyd, and they could use the rotation help. Plus, if any team can improve upon his improved K/W ratio and work on lowering the HR and hard contact, it is Houston.
This said from somebody that actually watches him pitch and is a Tigers fan…not just posters that look at statistics and make up value excuses!
I watch him every time he pitches and I watch baseball around the league all the time. Boyd is more talented right now than anything NYY have besides a healthy Severino which might not come until next year.
That’s just flat out wrong. Boyd has a track record of being a plus 4 ERA pitcher over the past 3 years and two hot months do not change that.
Let’s stop acting like Tanaka, Paxton, German, etc are just back end of the rotation guys. Boyd being Detroit’s best pitcher doesn’t make him an ace on another team. The fastest sprinter at the special olympics won’t win gold at the real thing either.
Top, cost controlled starting pitching for multiple years that is low salaried is in huge demand and always expensive.
Teams pay high market value or, oftentimes, have to over pay for that talent that could put them over the top into the WS and improve chances to capture the WS Championship flag….
Pay the premium or risk watching the WS at home on your couches..
The good thing for Detroit is that it only takes one contender to overpay for him. An LHP with clear upside for that cheap has about a 1% chance of being in Detroit on August 1st. The “hype-train is screeching to a hault”? That’s rather dramatic there, bud. He gave up two more HR, yeah, but he also did it in the 2nd most homer-prone park in MLB this year. You can go either way with it. I’d love to see him in a Padres uni.
Unfortunately too many people appear to have the hype train mentality. Same people that kept insisting Verlander was washed up with a toxic contract in 2016.
Good news is, like with Verlander, Avila is sticking to his guns and insisting on value. I’d certainly rather keep Boyd then trade him for a prospect that may wash out (Perez?!?) but if someone blows him away, that would be great.
Verlander had years of success, and a proven track record….this guy has nothing but a bloated ERA, gives up a hit an inning, and watches lots of balls he throws leaving the yard rapped around lots of K’s which are occurring on a record pace around the league.
Avila can “stick to his guns” and will probably either settle or watch this guy pitch for the Tigers for at least the remainder of this year.
This guy isn’t Verlander!
Strikeouts might be up around the league but that does not change the fact Boyd’s K/BB % is right there with Sale and Scherzer atop the league as is elite compared all other pitchers enjoying more Ks this year.
No one said Boyd is Verlander. They said people are speaking about Boyd being nothing like they were with Verlander being washed up with a huge contract. If you look at their numbers this year, they are very similar, besides Verlander limiting hits better than Boyd. Is that because JV has a better defense around him? Or is it because he has better stuff? I would say both factor into him having a lower ERA, but his FIP is higher than Boyd’s.
Boyd sat for almost 1/2 hr between the 5th and 6th inning with 90 pitches on his arm in Chicago. He should not have gone out in the 6th. Stat line was: 5.1 IP/4R/9H/2HR/13SO, when it should have been 5IP/2R/6-7H??/1HR/12SO..I do believe he gave up 3 hits in 6th.
I think the chatter about his outing would be very different.
Dodgers don’t need Greene. Friedman just signed Sadler.
Bullpen or not you do a lot of complaining for a team that is 60-29. Jeez dude I think Friedman knows what he is doing
Let’s see how the do in the playoffs vs. quality teams
Funny.
I can guarantee Mets don’t trade for Jimenez
The big thing most teams are going to look at is controllability! Detroit is going to fleece somebody for all these years another team can keep this kid and coach him to their brand! Question is, who is going to be the team to sale the farm to get him? I don’t see a lot of takers for Sonny Gray 2.0. Not for their price tag. Houston may have the kids to get it done but do they risk it all on one pitcher? Don’t think so! Detroit will sit on him until they can’t get a bucket of used balls for him just like they have all their trade chips over the past 10 years or so.
Just curious which trade chips they kept too long? Maybe JD Martinez, but the Tigers believed they had one last year of contention left in them.
Fullmer mainly. Castellanos now as well..
I don’t think the Tigers kept JD Martinez too long. There weren’t many takers for him. The only team interested during the 16-17 off season was SFG but there was nothing the Tigers wanted in the Giants’ system to take in return. ARI became a trade partner when RF Yasmany Tomas imploded.
Nicholas Castellanos isn’t an intentional hold either. There is just not much interest around MLB for him. DET needs players so they aren’t taking another team’s waiver wire trash for him.
Matthew Boyd and Shane Greene are drawing a great deal of interest, however.
Joe Jimenez may see more interest in the off season. He’s more a project than a piece for a contender… unless he goes as part of a package.
I’m surprised more aren’t interested in Daniel Norris. He looks like he’s close to putting it all together now that he’s healthy.
They were asking for the moon for Castellanos when there was some interest in him. They’ll end up with a bag of balls instead.
If they do trade Boyd they need a good return. Greene take what you can get. Jimenez has done absolutely nothing since his all star 1st half. But sure enough if we trade him he’ll put it together.
Ditto on Norris but I think the reason is purely health. No one wants to give value for someone for that history. If he can stay healthy the rest of the way there may be takers in the off season.
Think about the return the Tigers could have received for Castellanos a couple of years ago. Now he will be sold off at the deadline for pennies on the dollar. Yet another mistake made by the Tigers organization.
You might be saying the same for Bauer, Kluber, Lindor, Ramirez or anyone else in Cleveland’s lineup 3 years from now. Hindsight is always 20/20.. Albeit, I don’t ever remember Nick’s trade value being extraordinary these last couple years. Leonys Martin though..
If Fischer for Blastellanos is still there, AA needs to make that call right now
Yeah it’s way not there anymore. It’s basically Castellanos for an A ball lottery ticket, and not one most baseball fans and prospect hounds have heard of.
The asking price for Boyd is borderline ludicrous this could be a problem when trying to move him.
Yea asking for Gleyber Torres was absolutely insane. I understand starting with a higher ask and working backwards can be a strategy but it at least has to be realistic.
Correct this is why these trade candidates aren’t moving, they ask for the moon but don’t ease up on their price. They need to know when to negotiate in order to sell high instead of giveaways once their contract is about to expire
Joe Jimenez for Dominic Smith would make sense if Dom weren’t the Mets 3rd best hitter and Jimenez’s value weren’t down due to the control issues. Maybe a trade can be worked out here…