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Chase Utley To Retire

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Longtime MLB star Chase Utley was released today by the Dodgers, clearing the way for his formal retirement. He announced in a press conference earlier this summer that he would retire at the end of the 2018 season.

Utley, 39, turned in a compelling 16-year run at the major-league level. In addition to possessing high-end all-around talent, Utley will be remembered as perhaps the consummate grinder of his generation. Of course, his hard-nosed play also occasionally drew the ire of opposing players and fans.

There’s ample cause to view Utley as a strong Hall of Fame candidate. The former No. 15 overall pick (Phillies, 2000) ran up a cumulative .275/.358/.465 batting line with 259 home runs, 1103 runs scored, 1025 RBIs and 154 stolen bases. The six-time All-Star won four Silver Slugger Awards at second base — each coming between 2006-09, when he was widely considered to be one of the best players in all of baseball. From 2005-13, Utley raked at a .290/.378/.503 clip — good for a robust 129 OPS+.

Put it all together, and Utley compiled more than 60 wins above replacement by measure of both Baseball-Reference (65.4) and Fangraphs (63.2). More than half of that tally came during a ridiculous five-year run from 2005 through 2009, when Utley racked up value by contributing in all facets of the game. That monster peak coincided with the Phillies’ rise into a powerhouse. Utley paired with Jimmy Rollins to form an outstanding up-the-middle duo and the club fielded a variety of other high-end talents.

Utley’s single best season, by measure of wins above replacement, came in 2008 when he helped lead the Phillies to a World Series Championship. Then 29 years of age, Utley hit .292/.380/.515 with 33 homers during the regular season and played a pivotal role in helping the Phils advance beyond the NLCS against the Dodgers.

Over the years to come, Utley ramped down into merely a highly above-average player. He was churning out 3+ WAR campaigns through 2014 — marking a decade-long run in which he reached at least that annual tally (by B-Ref’s measure). The inevitable breakdown campaign came in 2015, but Utley still found a way to bounce back. He turned into a sturdy role player after moving to the Dodgers via trade. Utley was particularly useful during the 2016 and 2017 campaigns, when he appeared in 265 total games, providing the Dodgers with 918 plate appearances of .246/.321/.400 hitting and over 1600 innings of solid glovework.

It was clear during the 2018 season that the end was near. Utley faded at the plate in limited action while dealing with thumb and wrist injuries. When he announced in the middle of the year that he’d hang up his spikes for good, it came as little surprise. The Dodgers preferred to keep him on the roster for the duration of the 2018 campaign, though Utley was not active for the postseason.

By retiring now, Utley will forego the remainder of his contract with the Dodgers. He had been under contract for the 2019 season at a rate of $1MM. Giving up that cash will leave Utley just under the $125MM mark for career earnings. That’s a hefty haul, to be sure, but he earned every cent. It’ll be interesting to see how Hall voters ultimately handle Utley’s case. He doesn’t have the individual accolades that many prefer to see among Hall of Famers, but he had one of the better peaks of any second basemen in recent memory, has one of the more impressive overall resumes at that position, and will no doubt draw support from those who value his broad-based contributions to many successful teams.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Open-Minded On Trade Proposals

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Amid fairly consistent reports on the Cubs’ limited payroll capacity this offseason, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the team is taking an open-minded approach to the trade market. Per the report, the team is willing to listen to offers on virtually anyone on the roster — even star third baseman Kris Bryant.

Needless to say, the fact that the Cubs evidently won’t hang up on rival organizations that inquire on Bryant is far from a suggestion that he is likely to be traded. It is jarring to see his name included in this ESPN headline — “Cubs open to trading 3B Kris Bryant” — but that doesn’t quite seem a fair encapsulation of Olney’s report. And it would remain absolutely stunning to see any deal actually come together this winter.

Indeed, as Olney points out, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein recently acknowledged publicly that neither Bryant nor star first baseman Anthony Rizzo are totally off limits, at least as a theoretical matter. That has always been the club’s stance. Notably, too, Epstein added an important proviso: “Given what we’re trying to accomplish,” he said, “it would be virtually impossible to envision the deal that would make sense to move them.”

Epstein’s statement still accurately reflects the Cubs’ thinking, according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). Per Wittenmyer, the Cubs are not looking for deals on Bryant and are merely operating under their standard protocol. As one might expect, it “would take a shocking haul/scenario” to “consider moving” Bryant, per Wittenmyer.

Taken as a whole, then, Olney’s report has clear limits. He does say that “it’s possible that the Cubs will trade” Bryant, and that the Cubs are telling rivals they “are willing to discuss trade proposals for almost all of the players on their roster, including Bryant.” That’s not an insignificant piece of information, to be sure, but it hardly seems to support the notion — which seems to be spreading in some corners of social media — that the Cubs have a whole new direction in mind.

On its face, in fact, Olney’s report seems to say as much or more about other Cubs players. The focus on Bryant’s status, in particular, could stem from recent reports about his decision to pass on what would’ve reportedly been a massive extension, David Kaplan of ESPN Radio reported that Bryant turned down an offer worth more than $200MM, though Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic suggests that the most recent time at which such an offer might have materialized is last offseason. That’d mark the second consecutive season in which extension talks with Bryant and agent Scott Boras failed to bear fruit; SI’s Tom Verducci reported in April 2017 that the Cubs and Bryant “got nowhere” in negotiations in the 2016-17 offseason.

The decision to turn down that kind of money is interesting in its own right, of course, but Bryant already banked a record $10.85MM as a first-time arbitration player this offseason. He’s also projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn another $12.4MM this offseason and still has another two trips through the arb process remaining beyond that. Paired with a whopping $6.7MM signing bonus out of the draft and numerous endorsement deals, Bryant undoubtedly already has the financial stability to bet on himself. His current trajectory has him on pace to reach free agency at the age of 29, in advance of his age-30 season, so he’d certainly be young enough to command a massive deal in free agency after going year to year through the arbitration process and banking a sum in excess of $50MM along the way.

While much of the focus of the report is understandably on Bryant, that’s perhaps not seeing the forest for the trees. Bryant, a former NL Rookie of the Year and NL MVP, carries perhaps the highest profile of any Cubs player, but the notion that the Cubs could deal from the existing roster — juxtaposed with recent reports on the team’s potential payroll constraints — could at the very least hint at the possibility of unexpected trades involving other notable players. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein described the Cubs’ offense as “broken” after the team’s Wild Card exit and has spoken about the need to repair that element of the Cubs.

However, if the Cubs are indeed facing payroll limitations and thus unable to play at the very top of the free-agent market for bats, then there’d be little alternative to shuffling the deck a bit by dealing some established players on the trade market. The aim, presumably, would not be to embark on any real rebuilding effort but to create some payroll flexibility while giving a still-competitive lineup something of a face lift. All things considered, it’s tough to see how a Bryant trade would really aid the Cubs’ cause.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/9/18

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Here are the day’s minor moves from around the league — all courtesy of Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise noted…

  • The Yankees re-signed infielder Gio Urshela to a minor league contract. The 27-year-old was traded from the Jays to the Yankees in early August and never appeared with New York in the Majors. Urshela is regarded as a quality defender at third base but has yet to deliver much in the way of offense at the big league level. In parts of three seasons with Toronto and Cleveland, he’s a .225/.274/.315 hitter (499 plate appearances). He’s a lifetime .274/.315/.411 hitter in Triple-A, however, and will give the Yanks some defensive-minded depth at the hot corner.
  • Former No. 2 overall pick Danny Hultzen has re-signed with the Cubs on a minor league pact. The left-hander spent the 2018 season in the Cubs organization but threw fewer than 10 innings in the minors as he worked back from major shoulder injuries that have utterly derailed what once looked to be a promising career. Hultzen will turn 29 later this month and has never thrown a pitch in a Major League game but will continue his latest comeback attempt and aim to break that barrier in the 2019 campaign. Those interested in learning more about the former Virginia standout are recommended to check out Hultzen’s interview with the Washington Post’s Dillon Mullan from Aug. 2017.
  • Right-handed reliever Evan Marshall has latched on with the White Sox on a minors deal. The 28-year-old has worked his way back from a near-fatal blow to the head from a comebacker line drive while pitching for the D-backs’ Triple-A club several years ago and has had brief MLB stints with the Mariners and Indians in each of the past two seasons. Marshall is still trying to rediscover the form he showed as a 24-year-old rookie in 2014, when he pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 9.9 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 through 49 1/3 innings in Arizona. He did post a ridiculous 1.08 ERA with a 23-to-3 K/BB ratio in 24 minor league frames with the Indians last year, but he was tagged for six runs in seven MLB innings.
  • The Mariners re-signed righty Ryan Garton to a minor league contract. The 28-year-old racked up 61 1/3 big league innings between the Rays and Mariners in 2016-17 but didn’t crack the big leagues with Seattle in 2018. He turned in a 3.16 ERA with 43 strikeouts in 42 2/3 innings for Triple-A Tacoma but also issued a hefty 24 walks (5.1 BB/9) in that time as well.

Mets Rumors: Bullpen, Maldonado, McNeil, Coaching Staff

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There’s been plenty of attention centered on the Mets’ bullpen needs this offseason, and new general manager Brodie Van Wagenen plainly indicated yesterday that his team is in the market for “multiple” bullpen pieces (Twitter link, with video, via MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo). “I can’t imagine we’d be looking to try and do a ’one and done’ situation,” said Van Wagenen. As for the type of reliever he’s looking for, Van Wagenen spoke in general terms — missing bats, controlling the strike zone — but suggested that closing experience might not be a big factor. In fact, it seems there’s no guarantee the Mets even plan to use a set closer in 2019.

“I think a lot of teams are going away from a traditional closer,” said Van Wagenen. “I think we had — in [Robert] Gsellman and [Seth] Lugo last year — a lot was asked of those two guys. They were about as good as they could be. As long as we can control their workload and not put them in situations that are over-taxing, I think both those guys can get outs at the back end of the game — the last three outs in particular. We’ll see whether other guys can be added to that mix.”

Here’s more from Queens…

  • In other Mets news, Van Wagenen says he feels the club is at least “covered” at the catching position, as Tim Healey of Newsday writes. That won’t stop the organization from looking at upgrades. In fact, the Mets have made a strong early push for glove-first backstop Martin Maldonado, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. It seems he’s the club’s top catching target in free agency, with Wilson Ramos of secondary interest. Meanwhile, pursuit of star Marlins backstop J.T. Realmuto does not sound particularly realistic. The Fish are evidently not enamored of the top New York prospects, so there may not be a deal to be made. (What should Realmuto cost in a trade? Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs took a worthwhile look at the subject.)
  • Though late-blooming Jeff McNeil’s MLB audition lasted just over two months last season, he looks to have done enough to assure himself a spot in next year’s lineup. Van Wagenen said at this week’s GM Meetings that McNeil is “penciled in” as the team’s everyday second baseman for the 2019 season (Twitter link via Healey). McNeil opened eyes with a .329/.381/.471 slash through 248 plate appearances, and while he only homered three times in 63 games, he also hit 11 doubles and racked up six triples in that time. Most encouraging of all, perhaps, was the infielder’s minuscule 9.7 percent strikeout rate. Even if his .359 average on balls in play regresses, as one would expect, McNeil’s knack for putting the ball in play should help him hit for a quality average and get on base at a solid clip.
  • The Mets have some coaching vacancies to fill, including hitting coach and bench coach. Puma tweets that former D-backs hitting coach Dave Magadan is among the Mets’ candidates to replace Pat Roessler at that position, while Matt Ehalt of the North Jersey Bergen Record tweets that former Cubs/Red Sox hitting coach Chili Davis could also be in the mix. Meanwhile, Jim Riggleman, who recently left the Reds after being passed over for their managerial vacancy, is a candidate to take over as Mickey Callaway’s bench coach, Ehalt adds.

Tigers Re-Sign Pete Kozma, Harold Castro

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The Tigers announced that they’ve signed 12 players to minor league contracts (full list here), including veteran shortstop Pete Kozma and infielder Harold Castro — each of whom was outrighted off the 40-man roster and became a free agent two weeks ago. That pair will be invited to Major League Spring Training, as will former Astros right-hander Jose Cisnero.

Kozma, a former Cardinals shortstop, had two stints with the Tigers this season but hit just .217/.236/.348 in 73 trips to the plate. His Triple-A stats weren’t an improvement (.203/.260/.295), though the defensive specialist has always been primarily known for his glovework. He’s still just 30 years of age and won’t turn 31 until after Opening Day next April.

Castro will turn 25 at the end of the month and made a very brief MLB debut this past season, going 3-for-10 in limited action as a September call-up. He once ranked among the organization’s top 30 prospects, per Baseball America, but that was back in 2014, and he’s done little at the plate in recent seasons. He split the 2018 season between Double-A and Triple-A, hitting a combined .265/.283/.319 in 367 plate appearances.

Cisnero is exactly one year younger than Kozma and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since the 2014 season with Houston. He broke into the Majors as a 24-year-old in 2013 and showed a bit of promise, pitching to a 4.12 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and 1.03 HR/9 in 43 2/3 innings as a rookie. Elbow issues torched his 2014 season, though, and he’s only pitched 5 1/3 innings of affiliated ball since that season ended. He’s pitched exclusively in the Mexican League and in Winter Ball since that time — also all in limited fashion. He’s off to a strong start in the 2018-19 Dominican Winter League, having yielded three earned runs on four hits and four walks with 11 strikeouts through 10 1/3 innings of relief.

Free Agent Rumblings: Cruz, Corbin, Marwin, Harrison, Chirinos

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Veteran slugger Nelson Cruz seems likely to draw quite a few looks from American League clubs. Per Jon Heyman of Fancred, the White Sox “are a player” in that market, while the Astros also have some interest. Either club would have some open DH plate appearances for the 38-year-old Cruz, who turned in a .256/.342/.509 slash with 37 long balls this past season in Seattle. That homer total, remarkably, was Cruz’s lowest in the past five seasons. During that time, he’s averaged 41 big flies per season while generally producing 45 percent more offense than a league-average hitter (by measure of OPS+). Houston GM Jeff Luhnow recently discussed a desire to add to an already imposing lineup, and Cruz would certainly fit the bill in that regard.

Some more early notes on the free-agent market…

  • The Yankees’ interest in Patrick Corbin is widely known, though general manager Brian Cashman made the fact a bit clearer at this week’s GM Meetings, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Asked if the Yankees were interested in retaining lefty J.A. Happ, Cashman acknowledged having spoken to Happ’s agent — though the agent he mentioned, John Courtright, actually represents Corbin. Both players were already locks to be on the Yankees’ radar this winter, so the slip hardly reveals any new information. That said, Davidoff suggests that the Yankees haven’t been deterred by anything they’ve heard from Corbin’s camp yet, adding that Yankees bullpen coach Mike Harkey was Corbin’s pitching coach in Arizona from 2014-15. Harkey, Davidoff continues, has already offered a positive endorsement in Corbin’s favor.
  • Former Astros utility man Marwin Gonzalez is the most versatile defender in free agency this season, and Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that he’s garnered at least some level of interest from nearly every club in the game. As a switch-hitter with at least a league average bat and the capability to play as many as six positions (all four infield slots and both outfield corners), “Swiss G” is indeed easy to imagine fitting onto virtually any team’s roster. Meanwhile, former Pirate Josh Harrison, a quality defender at second base with experience at third base and in the outfield corners, has generated some interest from the likes of the Yankees, Reds and Nationals, among others, per Heyman. Both players’ versatility should serve them well this winter.
  • Free agent catcher Robinson Chirinos has drawn some early interest from the Twins and the Braves, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. The 34-year-old Chirinos hit the market after the Rangers declined his $4.5MM option. Chirinos’ .222/.338/.419 slash was a departure from his career year in 2017, but he did slug a personal best 18 home runs in 2018. Over the past four seasons in Texas, he’s hit .233/.337/.456 with 54 home runs in 336 games played. Chirinos’ strikeout rate at the plate and caught-stealing rate behind the plate both went in the wrong direction this year (in fairly significant fashion), but his track record at the plate is strong for a catcher, even if he’s never been regarded as a great defensive option.

MLB Owners Expected To Approve Extension For Rob Manfred

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Major League Baseball owners are expected to meet next week to vote on a five-year extension for commissioner Rob Manfred, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. He’d need the approval of ownership representatives from 16 of the 30 teams, though Nightengale reports that Manfred is expected to receive unanimous approval. It’s been four years since Manfred officially succeeded Bud Selig as the league’s commissioner, and the new agreement would effectively ensure that he’d spend at least a decade in his current role.

Nightengale adds that various rule changes will also be discussed, as is typical in the offseason, with a heavy focus on pace of play — which has come to be one of Manfred’s more focal issues during his tenure. The idea of a pitch clock will once again be discussed, as will limitations on pitching changes, defensive shifts and “openers,” per the report. Manfred has already implemented numerous pace of play initiatives, most recently including a limited number of mound visits per game.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi has previously tweeted that Major League Baseball is also weighing various avenues to curb teams’ abilities to steal signs using technology; one popular idea, he adds, would be to limit real-time access to the center-field camera views in teams’ video rooms. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan hears similarly (Twitter links). Deputy commissioner and chief legal officer Dan Halem spoke with Nightengale about the subject, indicating that it was a frequently raised topic at this week’s GM Meetings and that he will bring several “good suggestions” to Manfred as the league looks to address the issue at next week’s owners’ meetings.

Halem also noted that roster expansion has been a frequent topic raised by general managers, although that issue is likely to be tabled until the next wave of collective bargaining begins. The current CBA spans the 2017-21 seasons, so any hope of additional bodies being added to the roster doesn’t seem likely for another few years, at the very least.

Report: Document Raises Questions About Dodgers’ Payroll Intentions

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Though the Dodgers’ pockets are among the deepest in the game, they haven’t been known (at least under their current front office leadership) for handing out monster contracts. The Dodgers, in fact, successfully dipped under Major League Baseball’s luxury tax threshold for the first time under the Guggenheim ownership group in 2018.

Still, when the Los Angeles organization swung a massive contract swap last December to sneak beneath the tax line, the general assumption was that the club mostly saw an opportunity to re-set its tax rate. After all, the scheme under the current collective bargaining agreement includes enhanced penalties for repeat offenders, increasing the incentives for performing a limbo act at least once every few years. Many wondered if the timing was designed at least in part to coincide with a 2018-19 free agent market that features some premium talent.

Now, though, there’s some evidence that the Dodgers may have different plans altogether. According to a report from Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times, a 2017 document prepared for potential investors suggested that the organization projected to remain beneath the luxury tax threshold for years to come. Specifically, the Dodgers told investors they projected to carry a $185MM payroll for 2019 and 2020 before increasing that number to $191MM in 2021 and $196MM in 2022. The organization predicted soaring revenue despite a streamlined budget (including with regard to player salaries).

Some provisos are assuredly warranted. As Shaikin explains, this document hardly binds the team in a legal sense. And a “high-ranking team official” tells Shaikin that the payroll numbers represented only a “forecast.” That said, it’s also fair to point out that any organization could theoretically expose itself to potential liability by including any known misrepresentations in a bid to draw investors.

Notably, too, the document was prepared before the team qualified for the postseason last year and ultimately went on to make consecutive World Series appearances. And it’s somewhat unclear whether the salary levels contemplated would relate to actual expenditures or calculations for purposes of assessing the competitive balance tax. Over the long haul, that might not matter much, but it certainly weighs into both the team’s immediate plans and the intentions behind the numbers it presented.

So, what might all this mean for the Dodgers’ near-term spending outlook? Most immediately, a source indicated to Shaikin that it’s quite likely the Dodgers will go past $200MM for the coming season. Whether or not that’s due to tweaked thinking since this document was prepared, it seems that the $185MM figure is no longer realistic.

Even if the Dodgers were to stick to that kind of spending level, the constraints may not be as great as one might imagine. Presently, the Dodgers are within just a few million dollars of that $185MM sum, though that estimate includes yet-undetermined arbitration salaries and doesn’t account for factors like non-tendered players or potential trade candidates with notable salaries (or projected salaries).

Furthermore, L.A.’s luxury tax ledger, which is based on the average annual salary of the team’s contracts rather than actual year-to-year salaries, is cleaner. Currently, the Dodgers payroll sits at just a bit north of $161MM for purposes of the CBA — well shy of this year’s $206MM luxury tax barrier. Even if one of Hyun-Jin Ryu or Yasmani Grandal were to accept a $17.9MM qualifying offer, the Dodgers would be at just over $179MM in luxury tax dollars, although that outcome would throw a wrench into the supposed 2019 bottom-line payroll target.

All things considered, it’s eminently possible for the Dodgers to add a premium salary — even after re-upping Clayton Kershaw at a rate that’s just short of the loftiest AAV in history — while staying out of the tax. It would take some finagling, and would perhaps mean parting with talented players on generally appealing contracts, but the document does not seem to conclusively take the Dodgers out of the hypothetical running for highly-paid players.

In the broader picture, of course, there’s surely something to be gleaned from this document. The notion of a payroll that trudges northward with inflation certainly does not align with the general image of the Dodgers as a freewheeling financial behemoth. It generally suggests that the organization will prioritize efficient spending while generally avoiding massive and lengthy contractual entanglements — a description that won’t be surprising to those that have followed the club’s course under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman.

That said, it’s difficult to reach any firm conclusions based solely upon this document. For instance, the Dodgers’ financial experts may simply have been projecting payroll to grow steadily from its then-projected future rate, rather than making any detailed assessment of the ever-complicated process of compiling a roster from season to season. And there are always creative possibilities that could be part of the planning here. The Dodgers’ wealth of young talent leaves the team capable (in theory, at least) of shedding contracts that go bad in future seasons. Most importantly, business plans change, and individual player investment decisions will surely not be dictated by the directional thinking at one point in time.

Red Sox Rumors: JDM, Bogaerts, Kikuchi, Payroll, Farm

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Both J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are likely to test free agency a year from now, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. Martinez has an opt-out provision in his five-year, $110MM contract with the Red Sox, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski gave no indication of interest in restructuring that deal, per Drellich. “He can choose to leave, it’s his opt out,” said Dombrowski. “But the reason we put ‘em in there were medically oriented as we went through at the time. That medical hasn’t changed.” Dombrowski is referring to medical provisions that were worked into the contract, allowing the Red Sox to convert the final two seasons of the deal into mutual options in the event that Martinez misses enough time due to a preexisting Lisfranc injury in his foot. As for Bogaerts, Dombrowski called his contract situation “important” for the team. Agent Scott Boras, meanwhile, told Drellich he’s “open to any thoughts [the Red Sox] have on the subject.” Asked about a recent extension for fellow client Jose Altuve, Boras pointed out that Bogaerts is two and a half years younger and also plays shortstop.

More from Boston…

  • Boston’s interest in Japanese left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is expected to be posted for MLB teams later this month, can be described as “lukewarm,” reports WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford. Dombrowski declined to comment on Kikuchi at the GM Meetings, beyond indicating that as one of Japan’s top arms, he’s a pitcher the Sox have scouted frequently in the past (as have many MLB clubs). “Yes, we have a pulse on him,” said Dombrowski. Boston could theoretically look to add some arms behind its top trio of Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello — especially considering Sale’s presence on next year’s free-agent market — but it doesn’t sound as though Kikuchi will be a prime target.
  • In a pair of columns for the Boston Globe, Alex Speier looks at Boston’s payroll/luxury tax situation as well as the team’s poorly regarded farm system. There’s virtually no scenario in which the Sox will avoid another season of luxury tax penalization, Speier observes, making the question not one of if they’ll incur penalty but rather one of how steep a penalty they’re willing to accept. Boston went into the highest luxury bracket this season and will be taxed at the maximum rate while also seeing its top draft pick dropped by 10 spots. Principal owner John Henry tells Speier, “You can’t do that all the time,” but Speier notes that it’s not clear if the organization is willing to do so once more in 2019. From a distance, it’s worth noting that this is the final season of club control over Sale, Martinez and Bogaerts, so there’s a good case to be made for maintaining aggression (though that’s just my own two cents). As for the farm system, Speier notes that a survey of rival evaluators left no real consensus as to the team’s top prospect — a fact that serves to highlight the general uncertainty that permeates the farm. But, the Sox surely have the pieces to once again be active on next summer’s rental market, Speier notes while highlighting a particular concentration of interesting third base prospects.

Rays, Mariners Swap Mallex Smith, Mike Zunino In Five-Player Trade

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The Mariners and Rays both crossed off an item on their offseason checklist Thursday, officially announcing a five-player trade that will send catcher Mike Zunino, outfielder Guillermo Heredia and minor league lefty Michael Plassmeyer from Seattle to Tampa in exchange for center fielder Mallex Smith and minor league outfielder Jake Fraley.

Mallex Smith | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

[Related: Seattle Mariners depth chart and payroll outlook | Tampa Bay Rays depth chart and payroll outlook]

“Bringing Mallex back home to Seattle is exciting for us all,” said GM Jerry Dipoto in a tongue-in-cheek statement — a nod to having briefly acquired Smith in a previous trade. “His combination of speed, base running impact, defense and on-base abilities are unique in today’s game. We believe his breakout 2018 performance reflects the many ways his skills will positively impact the Mariners for years to come. Jake Fraley exhibits a similarly exciting set of athletic and baseball skills. His offensive game blossomed in 2018 and creates an exciting profile when coupled with his exceptional defense and overall instincts. Both players fit our desire to build a younger, more athletic and exciting roster.”

Unsurprisingly, the first significant swap of the 2018-19 offseason involves the ever-active Dipoto. As recently as Tuesday, the Seattle GM spoke of a desire to “re-imagine” the Mariners’ roster while striving to remain competitive. Specifically, he indicated to MLB.com’s Greg Johns that adding a center fielder would be a priority. Adding Smith not only achieves that goal early in the offseason but simultaneously lowers the club’s lofty payroll a bit; Zunino is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.2MM through arbitration this winter, while Smith is not yet arbitration-eligible after narrowly missing Super Two status and is controlled through the 2022 campaign.

This marks the second time in the past two years that Dipoto has acquired Smith, although the speedster’s original Mariners tenure was measured in minutes. Dipoto acquired Smith from the Braves in a deal that sent Luiz Gohara to Atlanta and promptly flipped Smith to Tampa Bay in order to acquire two years of Drew Smyly’s services. Unfortunately, Smyly injured his arm that Spring and ultimately required Tommy John surgery before ever throwing a regular-season pitch for the Mariners.

This time around, Smith’s acquisition seems to carry more permanence. He’s fresh off a season in which he hit .296/.367/.406 with a pair of homers, 27 doubles, an AL-leading 10 triples and a hefty 40 stolen bases. The 25-year-old Smith saw action at all three outfield positions with the Rays and delivered above-average ratings, but he’ll almost certainly slot in as the primary center fielder for manager Scott Servais in Seattle. He’ll give the Mariners a significant defensive upgrade over Dee Gordon, who admirably attempted to try his hand at a new position last season but graded out as one of the most ineffective defensive center fielders in the game. Gordon now appears likely to return to second base, if he isn’t traded himself, with Robinson Cano perhaps shifting to designated hitter and rotating between second base, first base and third base.

Mike Zunino | Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

For the Rays, the addition of Zunino gives them a catcher with light-tower power and premium defensive skills. However, Zunino pairs those highly desirable traits with enormous strikeout tendencies and questionable on-base skills. He’s coming off a season in which he hit just .201/.251/.406 with 20 homers, but he’s also only a season removed from a vastly superior .251/.339/.509 output and a career-high 25 homers. Over the past three seasons, Zunino is a .223/.300/.462 hitter with with 57 home runs in 1032 plate appearances. The average and OBP might not jump out, but when adjusting for the Mariners’ pitcher-friendly home park, that level of production rates at about seven percent better than the league-average hitter and nearly 20 percent better than that of a league-average catcher (by measure of OPS and wRC+).

Defensively, Zunino threw out a career-best 35 percent of would-be base thieves in 2018, and he perennially ranks among the league’s best in terms of pitch framing. He’s received well above-average marks in Baseball Prospectus’ Fielding Runs Above Average for catchers in each of his Major League seasons, and he’s controllable for the next two seasons. If the Rays feel they can curb Zunino’s alarming 34.2 percent career strikeout rate, perhaps they believe there’s some yet-untapped upside in the 27-year-old. If not, he’ll nonetheless give them a strong throwing/framing backstop with more power than just about any catcher in the game.

Acquiring Zunino pushes Michael Perez, acquired in this summer’s Matt Andriese trade with the Diamondbacks, from a starting role to a backup job. The 26-year-old Perez impressed in his brief big league promotion in ’18, hitting .284/304/.392 with a homer and five doubles while halting five of 17 stolen-base attempts against him (29 percent). Perez has received quality defensive ratings of his own throughout his minor league tenure, so this pairing gives Tampa Bay a couple of solid to plus defenders behind the plate — a likely point of emphasis for lead baseball ops duo Erik Neander and Chaim Bloom as they engage in experimental tactics with their pitching staff.

As for Heredia, he’s not entirely dissimilar from Smith in that he’s a fleet-footed outfielder with minimal power who is capable of handling all three outfield positions. He’s not likely to crack a crowded Rays mix that could feature Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier and Austin Meadows as starters in the outfield. However, he could also give the Tampa Bay organization a nice bench option or upper-minors depth piece, as he does have multiple minor league options remaining.

Heredia, 28 in January, hit .236/.318/.342 with the Mariners in 337 plate appearances last season — numbers that fall right in line with his career .244/.321/.336 output in 870 PAs. Unlike Smith, he’s garnered poor defensive ratings in center field, though he grades out above-average in the outfield corners.

Plassmeyer, 22, was the Mariners’ fourth-round pick just five months ago in the 2018 draft, which aligns with Dipoto’s willingness to deal from his most recent draft classes. He traded catcher David Banuelos, his 2017 fifth-rounder, to the Twins last December and also flipped 2017 fourth-rounder Seth Elledge to the Cardinals this past summer. Plassmeyer, Mizzou product, posted a ridiculous 44-to-4 K/BB ratio through 24 innings in Short-Season Class-A ball this summer.

Fraley, 23, was Tampa Bay’s second-round pick in 2016 and is coming off a monstrous .347/.415/.547 showing in 2018, but those gaudy numbers came in 260 PAs against younger competition at Class-A Advanced.

While the addition of Smith fills one vacancy for the Mariners, it also creates another. Light-hitting journeyman David Freitas now sits atop the team’s depth chart behind the plate, so adding some catching options either via free agency or (more likely given Dipoto’s tendencies) via the trade market now figures to become an imperative in the months to come. As for the Rays, they’re dealing from a position of strength and also adding some additional depth by picking up Heredia, so this trade merely checks one item off a length to-do list early in the winter, thus freeing the Tampa Bay front offices to turn its focus to other areas of need (namely, the pitching staff).

Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported that the two sides were close to a deal involving Zunino, Smith and Heredia. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that an agreement was in place, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post and Greg Johns of MLB.com added some context on the return (Twitter links) before the inclusion of Plassmeyer and Fraley was also reported by Divish.

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