Which Impending Free Agent Bats Are Actually Improving Their Stock?
In case you weren't aware, the upcoming offseason's free agent class is ... well, it's... not exactly the stronge-- ok, it's not good. It's a weak class. Despite being headlined by a two-time Cy Young winner, that was always expected to be the case. The fact that said Cy Young winner, Tarik Skubal, is currently out following surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow only further dampens the group's overall earning power.
We're due for an update on our Free Agent Power Rankings. That'll likely be published at some point next week. Our power rankings are always based on total earning power rather than individual impact. If you're a 38-year-old ace, you probably won't rank as highly as a 28-year-old regular at third base, because that 28-year-old is going to have access to a much longer (and thus more lucrative overall) contract than said 38-year-old. Sorry Chris Sale, them's the breaks.
That said, it's been a brutal year for most of the names at the top of an already underwhelming free agent class -- pitchers and hitters alike. Skubal, as mentioned, had elbow surgery. He'll be back -- sooner than originally anticipated, by all accounts -- but he's not going to take home a third straight Cy Young Award. Bo Bichette can opt out of his Mets contract ... but he's hitting .225/.273/.317. Trevor Rogers missed time on the injured list and has a nearly 7.00 ERA through nine starts. Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been terrific in May, but that only offsets an awful April. Tatsuya Imai came to MLB with plenty of hype and an opt-out-laden contract that potentially set him up to reenter free agency and cash in on a mega-deal next winter -- at least until he posted a 6.17 ERA through his first six MLB starts.
Any and all of these players have time to turn things around, and while the headline of this particular post is admittedly a bit hyperbolic, it's also true that most of the market's top bats aren't doing much to elevate their case. A big four months would make Chisholm's April a distant memory, but we're not there yet. Daulton Varsho has been better than average at the plate but hasn't shown the same power he did last year. Bichette's start has been dismal. Taylor Ward has followed up his 36-homer 2025 season by hitting two round-trippers through the first third of the 2026 season.
We'll cover a lot of the bigger names on the forthcoming update to our Power Rankings, but here's a look at some bats who probably won't make the list but are nonetheless trending in a positive direction. (Note that I'll be excluding some smaller-sample breakouts/resurgences for this list; Jorge Mateo's .324/.370/.471 slash looks great, but it's 73 plate appearances being propped up by a silly .455 BABIP and combined with a 30% strikeout rate. Let's not get too carried away.)
Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates
Pittsburgh's acquisition of Lowe in the three-team trade that sent Mike Burrows to Houston and Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay looks like one of the best moves of the offseason. The 31-year-old (32 in July) is in the midst of arguably the best season of his career. Lowe has belted 14 home runs in only 51 games. His 11.2% walk rate is the second-highest of his career, while his 23.7% strikeout rate is the second-lowest.
Not only are those excellent marks both relative to his career levels and the rest of the league, they both put a halt to some worrying trends. Lowe has always struck out a fair bit, but his 2022 mark of 22.9% looked like it might be a step in the right direction. Instead, it climbed to 27% from 2023-25 and did so while his walk rate plummeted to a career-worst 6.9% last year. Lowe still chases a bit too much, but he's made big gains on his in-zone contact rate and done so without sacrificing much in the way of hard-hit balls.
Durability will be key for Lowe, who played in only 415 of 648 possible games from 2022-25 (64%). However, he's currently on pace to match his career-high 39 home runs, set back in 2021, and he's doing so with the best strikeout-to-walk profile of his career.
If Lowe actually stays healthy and flirts with 40 homers, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not in the top 10 on our list. But even if his power output cools down, he's done a nice job improving his stock thus far.
The open market in modern baseball rarely rewards pure second basemen, which is what Lowe is at this point. He's played exactly three innings of outfield since the 2021 season wrapped, and he has all of 155 career innings at first base. It also rarely compensates 32-year-olds on long-term deals. Lowe has an uphill battle based on position and age, but he's still angling for a nice multi-year deal.
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Orioles Re-Sign Albert Suárez
3:20pm: The O’s have officially announced their singing of Suarez. To open a 40-man spot, righty Dean Kremer was transferred to the 60-day injured list. Kremer has been on the IL since April 20th due to a right quad strain and his 60-day count is retroactive to that date. He will therefore be eligible for reinstatement in about three weeks. He hasn’t yet begun a rehab assignment and is presumably not close to returning.
1:45pm: Right-hander Albert Suarez elected free agency yesterday after the Orioles passed him through waivers unclaimed, but he’s predictably lined up to rejoin the team in short order. Suárez is already back in the Orioles’ clubhouse, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, and the team is expected to finalize a new contract with him and option righty Cameron Weston to Triple-A Norfolk in a corresponding move. That suggests it’ll be a big league deal for Suárez, who’d be available out of the ‘pen for tonight’s game.
As was the case following his last DFA in Baltimore, Suárez near-immediately returns on a new contract. He’s out of minor league options, but both he and the Orioles seem content with an arrangement similar to the one between the Braves and Carlos Carrasco (profiled here earlier today). Effectively, Suárez is something of a 41st man on Baltimore’s 40-man roster. The team will probably continue to add him to the big league roster, DFA him, pass him through waivers, and re-sign him as needed. It’s feasible that another team would claim Suárez at some point, but the O’s could always bake in some friendly terms that make the right-hander likelier to clear.
The 36-year-old Suárez has a 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 innings with the O’s this season but just a 12.3% strikeout rate and an ugly 11.1% walk rate. His run-prevention numbers have been buoyed by a .186 average on balls in play and 9.2% homer-to-flyball rate, both of which (particularly the former) are likely to regress.
This year’s so-so numbers notwithstanding, Suárez has been an important contributor in Baltimore since returning from a half decade pitching overseas (three years in Japan, two in South Korea). He’s piled up 165 innings in two-plus seasons as an Oriole, logging a 3.49 ERA, 18.6% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate. Most of that work came in 2024; shoulder and elbow injuries combined to limit Suárez to 11 2/3 MLB frames last year. He’s already surpassed that mark in 2026 despite the multiple DFAs.
Since Suárez is out of options and amenable to the on-and-off-the-roster setup the Orioles appear to be using here, there’s a good chance he’ll once again be designated for assignment when the O’s need a fresh arm. The cycle will likely repeat itself at that point, with Suárez passing through waivers, returning on a new deal, and so on. It’s a more tumultuous path than most big leaguers traverse, but Suárez has already picked up 40 days of big league service and pay this season — players accrue service/salary while in DFA limbo — so it’s still a pretty lucrative one, especially for a 36-year-old with fewer than four years of service under his belt.
Guardians Select Stuart Fairchild
The Guardians have selected the contract of outfielder Stuart Fairchild from Triple-A Columbus. He takes the active roster spot of fellow outfielder Steven Kwan, who has been placed on the bereavement/family medical emergency list. To open a 40-man spot, infielder Gabriel Arias has been transferred to the 60-day injured list. Tim Stebbins of MLB.com was among those to relay the moves.
Fairchild has experience in parts of five MLB seasons and has three-plus years of major league service. He’s a glove-first outfielder with a lifetime .223/.305/.384 batting line in 277 big league games (670 plate appearances). The 30-year-old right-handed hitter hasn’t done much of anything against righties in his career (.203/.269/.366), but he carries a .246/.343/.404 line against lefties, which is a bit better than league-average production (106 wRC+).
Cleveland signed Fairchild to a minor league deal over the winter. He started the season in Columbus and has hit quite well there, batting .289/.417/.479 with five homers, eight doubles, a pair of triples, nine steals (in 11 attempts), a 14.8% walk rate and an 18.2% strikeout rate in 176 turns at the plate. That stout production isn’t necessarily a portent for a major league breakout, however. It falls right in line with Fairchild’s career .281/.384/.500 batting line in 706 Triple-A plate appearances.
Fairchild is a plus runner capable of playing all three outfield spots at an average or better clip. Statcast credited him with 86th-percentile sprint speed last year, and he carries strong career marks in Defensive Runs Saved (10) and Outs Above Average (9) in just under 1500 innings of big league outfield work. Fairchild is out of minor league options and thus might wind up being designated for assignment once Kwan returns.
Arias, 26, has been out since early April due to a hamstring strain. He was already approaching 60 days on the injured list, making today’s move little more than a formality, but he doesn’t appear close to returning anyhow. Manager Stephen Vogt conceded earlier this month that Arias’ recovery has been a bit on the slow side. He still hasn’t progressed to a minor league rehab assignment, which he’ll clearly need after spending close to two months on the shelf.
Arias is out of minor league options, which will present Cleveland with a decision when he’s ready to return. Shortstop Brayan Rocchio is having a breakout year at the plate, and former No. 1 pick Travis Bazzana has hit the ground running in his initial call to the majors. Neither is going to be displaced for Arias, a career .215/.273/.358 hitter. It’s possible the Guardians will keep Arias in a reserve role, but utilityman Daniel Schneemann is having a productive season in his own right.
All of that hinges on the health of the Guardians’ roster whenever Arias is able to return, of course. For the time being, his focus is simply on getting back into playing shape, but his fit on the roster doesn’t look as clean as it once did.
Rays Designate Jon Heasley For Assignment, Select Andrew Wantz
The Rays announced that they have reinstated infielder Ben Williamson from the 10-day injured list and selected the contract of right-hander Andrew Wantz. In corresponding moves, infielder Carson Williams has been optioned to Triple-A Durham and righty Jon Heasley has been designated for assignment.
Wantz, 30, has pitched in parts of four seasons with the Angels, totaling 118 1/3 frames at the MLB level. He’s logged a solid 3.88 ERA in that time and turned in a strong 25.7% strikeout rate. Wantz’s 9.8% walk rate is a bit high, and he’ll probably always be a bit homer-prone just due to his extreme fly-ball tendencies (career 29.5% ground-ball rate), but he’s pitched decently when healthy and in the majors.
The health component is a notable one for Wantz. He’s only in the Rays organization by virtue of a two-year minor league contract he signed ahead of the 2025 season. The Rays knew Wantz would miss nearly all of 2025 upon signing him. Wantz spent most of the 2024 campaign on the injured list with the Halos and eventually underwent surgery. The Angels removed him from the 40-man roster following the ’24 campaign, rather than carry an injured player on the 40-man roster all winter, and the Rays scooped him up a few months later.
Wantz wound up pitching 13 minor league rehab innings late last year. He’s healthy now and has appeared in 18 Triple-A games with the Rays. The 6’4″, 235-pound righty has been dinged for a 7.04 ERA in 23 innings, with most of the damage coming over his five most recent outings (11 runs allowed in seven frames). However, Wantz has been dogged by a massive .403 average on balls in play. His 20.7% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate are both worse than the major league average, but not by much, and his 4.02 FIP suggests that better days should be on the horizon.
Wantz is out of minor league options. He won’t be able to be sent back to Durham unless he clears waivers first, and even then, he’d have the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, given that he’s previously been outrighted in the past. It’s possible this will just be a brief one-off look in the majors, but Tampa Bay has invested more than a year of effort into rehabbing the righty, so they’d presumably like to take a look at him for more than just an appearance or two.
Meanwhile, Heasley’s stint with the Rays’ big league club will be just such a one-off look, it seems. Tampa Bay signed him to a minor league deal last month. He made one big league appearance this week after his contract was selected from Durham, wherein he surrendered five runs in four innings of work.
The 29-year-old Heasley has now pitched in parts of five seasons between the Royals, O’s and Rays. He’s totaled 143 innings with a 6.04 ERA, a perilously low 14.3% strikeout rate and a solid 8.7% walk rate. The former 13th-round pick out of Oklahoma State had strong numbers in the minors up through Double-A but has been hit hard in Triple-A and the majors. He’s out of big league options, so any team that picks him up would need to plug him right onto the major league roster. Between that fact and his struggles between Triple-A and MLB, he’ll likely clear waivers. The Rays have five days to look for a trade partner or waive him. Waivers are a 48-hour process, so Heasley’s DFA will be resolved within a week’s time.
Braves Designate Carlos Carrasco For Assignment
The Braves announced Friday that veteran righty Carlos Carrasco has been designated for assignment yet again. His spot on the roster goes to righty Anthony Molina, who’s been recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett.
It’s the fourth time since last August that Atlanta has designated Carrasco for assignment. The 39-year-old has passed through waivers on each of the three prior instances, elected free agency, and re-signed with the Braves on a minor league deal. He also inked a minors pact with Atlanta over the winter after becoming a free agent at season’s end.
This type of setup for veteran arms who can’t be optioned has become increasingly commonplace around the league. In recent years, the Mariners (Casey Lawrence), Yankees (Ryan Weber, David Hale), Orioles (Albert Suarez) and Braves themselves (Carrasco, Jesse Chavez) are among the clubs that have carried something of a “41st man” on the 40-man roster — a veteran who’ll repeatedly clear waivers and is comfortable returning on a series of minor league deals, knowing he’ll be back in the major league fold before long.
Carrasco has pitched well when the Braves have summoned him to the majors. He’s tossed 7 1/3 innings and held opponents to a pair of runs on six hits and no walks with four strikeouts. He’s been sharp in Gwinnett, too, logging a flat 3.00 ERA (21 K%, 5.6 BB%) in 30 innings of work there.
Once a high-end starter in Cleveland, Carrasco was traded to the Mets as part of the Francisco Lindor blockbuster several years ago. He had a strong 2022 season in Queens but has largely seen his effectiveness wane since. From 2023-25, he tossed 239 1/3 big league innings with a 6.36 ERA.
Atlanta will have five days to trade Carrasco, place him on waivers or release him. The former doesn’t seem likely, based on how they’ve handled him to this point. It’s quite probable that Carrasco will hit waivers, and if he goes unclaimed, he’ll briefly become a free agent and re-sign with the Braves.
The two parties are clearly comfortable with this arrangement, which works for all parties. The team gets a flexible long relief option who can make a spot start if needed and serve as a veteran mentor for some younger arms (both in the majors and in Gwinnett). Carrasco gets big league service/pay for any time spent on the big league roster or in DFA limbo. He’s already picked up 22 days of service this year; even at the prorated minimum he’d be approaching $100K in big league earnings this season, though given his veteran status, his minor league pacts are probably coming with a slightly heavier base salary for major league time.
Rangers Release Dairon Blanco
The Rangers have released outfielder Dairon Blanco, who’d been playing with their Triple-A club, reports Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com. The former Royals speedster joined the Rangers via a March waiver claim and was later passed through outright waivers, so he wasn’t on the 40-man roster.
Blanco, 33, is one of the fastest players in pro ball and has a decent track record at the plate in limited action across parts of four seasons with the Royals. He’s posted a .257/.312/.416 slash (99 wRC+) in 285 plate appearances across parts of four seasons, but he’s never topped 138 major league plate appearances in a given season. Part of the reason for Blanco’s solid career rate stats is that he was heavily platooned and thus saw a disproportionate number of those plate appearances (42%) against lefties. He’s a career .296/.353/.509 (137 wRC+) hitter against southpaws but just a .228/.281/.349 (70 wRC+) in right-on-right matchups in the majors.
So far in 2026, Blanco has received limited run in Triple-A and hasn’t performed to his typical levels. He’s come to the plate 73 times in 21 games and turned in a tepid .230/.324/.295 slash with no home runs, four doubles and seven steals (in nine tries). The production is well shy of average even in Triple-A, but Blanco entered the season with a career .289/.367/.447 slash at the top minor league level.
Blanco has experience at all three outfield positions. His outstanding speed gives him the range to cover any of the spots, but he’s been dinged for a below-average arm dating back to his prospect days. It hasn’t graded out well during his big league time, making him best suited for left field with occasional work in center.
It’s not the most well-rounded skill set, but Blanco is a plus-plus runner who can move around the outfield and hit left-handed pitching at a decent clip. Coupled with a solid track record in Triple-A, that should get him a look with another organization in need of some righty-swinging outfield depth.
MLB Submits Initial Counterproposal To MLBPA
One day after the Major League Baseball Players Association released the details of its initial proposal on a new collective bargaining agreement to the public, the league submitted a counteroffer to the union, as expected. While MLB did not formally disclose the details to the public, ESPN’s Jesse Rogers reports that the league’s proposal contained a hard salary cap set at $245.3MM and a salary floor set at $171.2MM.
The Athletic’s Evan Drellich adds that the league is proposing an even 50-50 split in revenues. It’s not entirely clear how that can coexist with the more concrete numbers the league also suggested. In the event of a percentage-based revenue sharing split, the cap and floor would be fluid and dependent on revenues.
We’ve seen that fluidity play out in other leagues. NBA players, for instance, were only paid 90.9% of their reported salaries for the 2024-25 season after the league’s revenues came in under projections. (The NBA’s bargaining agreement calls for 51% of league revenue to go to players.) The NBA held 10% of player salaries in escrow to begin the season, and 91% of that money wound up going back into teams’ pockets rather than to the players. It’s possible that the $245.3MM cap and $171.2MM floor are just based on current projections for the 2026 season, but specific details surrounding the proposal have not fully come to light.
Rogers further notes that MLB’s proposed floor includes player benefits (insurance, transportation costs, etc.). Player benefits are already factored into each team’s luxury-tax ledger to the tune of about $18MM per year. It’s not clear whether the $1.667MM each team contributes yearly to the leaguewide pre-arbitration bonus pool are factored into that spending floor as well, but that sum does count toward a team’s CBT calculation. If both player benefits and pre-arb bonus pool contributions count toward the floor, that $171.2MM floor proposal (however it’s been calculated) would realistically call for closer to $150MM of spending toward player salaries.
That’s still a higher sum than a dozen teams in baseball are paying. The $245MM cap, conversely, would require at least eight teams to reduce payroll. Whether that’s actual cash payroll or luxury-tax payroll (calculated based upon the combined average annual values of a team’s contractual commitments) also remains unclear, though the latter seems likely. Either way, a cap/floor system would likely be implemented gradually. The Dodgers surely wouldn’t be forced to trim $200MM from payroll, just as the Guardians wouldn’t be forced to add $90-100MM to reach the floor in a single offseason.
A cap system has long been a total nonstarter for the union. MLBPA interim director Bruce Meyer and his charges have been staunchly against the implementation of any form of restriction on player earnings. The union has already issued a swift rebuke of the league’s proposal. Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times has the full, lengthy response for those who wish to read it in full. Within, the union makes the pointed claim that owners are not seeking a cap “out of generosity or a desire to protect the game’s well-being” but rather “to control costs, increase profits and maximize franchise values.” The MLBPA’s statement also states:
“The last time the owners made such an explicit push for a cap — over 30 years ago — it led to the longest work stoppage in MLB history. For generations, our members have fought against cap systems because they harm players at all levels, erode or eliminate contractual guarantees, pit player against player, lead to more work stoppages, not less, and get worse for players over time. Caps don’t lower ticket prices for fans, eliminate tanking or ensure teams are run with equal competence. They suffocate competition by offering owners an all-purpose excuse for inaction and mediocrity.”
Baseball is the only of the four major North American sports that doesn’t presently have a salary cap. The league will focus its arguments on the necessity for a cap to balance the playing field and create greater parity, leveraging recent World Series titles for the big-spending Dodgers as “proof” that the current system is untenable. The union, conversely, will undoubtedly point to torrid starts from small-market clubs like the Rays and Brewers (to say nothing of flops from big-payroll clubs like the Mets, Astros, Giants and Red Sox) as their own “proof” that the existing system isn’t an impediment to competitive balance. The eye-popping sticker price in the recent sale of the Padres will undoubtedly be a talking point as well.
There’s little sense in delving too deeply into the weeds on original proposals. Both sides’ first overture was always going to be a total nonstarter for the other party. That the league and union began exchanging proposals more than six months prior to the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement (on Dec. 1) is likely to be a moot point. The last time around, they began negotiating even earlier, and the two parties still spent the 2021-22 offseason embroiled in a 99-day lockout that put a stoppage on all major league transactions (e.g. trades, waiver claims, free agent signings). Both sides continually blew past artificial negotiating “deadlines” until a much more tangible, real-world deadline — Opening Day 2022 — was firmly on the horizon.
It’d register as an immense surprise if Meyer and commissioner Rob Manfred were able to hammer out a new deal prior to the expiration of the current agreement. However, the fact that a lockout is a near inevitability does not mean that the same is true of missed games in 2027. The league’s formal proposition of a cap/floor system is surely intended to signal a hardline stance, as was the case with the union’s proposal (which, among other things, included a soft salary floor with no cap, substantial increases to league minimum salary, a tripling of the pre-arbitration bonus pool, and an earlier path to free agency).
That said, it’s in the best interest of the league and the players to avoid any work stoppage that actually sees games lost in the 2027 season. The league can claim a cap is a virtual necessity, but MLB has also taken great pride in touting continually rising attendance and broadcast numbers. Renegotiation of national media broadcast rights and streaming deals with platforms like Netflix, Apple and Peacock are all looming on the near horizon as well, in 2028. Similarly, the union can point to the deterioration of the “middle class” of players, but there have been notable earning gains through the increased minimum salary and the implementation of the pre-arb bonus pool, while salaries on the top end of the earning spectrum continue to rise. And in the event of lost games, ownership will invariably try to recoup some of those losses by decreasing spending on player acquisition in the years following any season with lost games.
Put more concisely: the specifics of these initial proposals will prove inconsequential. Neither party expects anything other than an outright refuting from the other. The league and union both seem to constantly jostle for the upper hand in a PR battle with fans, though they’d arguably be better off just conducting negotiations behind closed doors since most proposals from either party tend to alienate some section of the fanbase.
Ultimately, the notable takeaway from today’s proposal is that the league came out swinging with a hard cap/floor system. The players are again touting goals like earlier free agency and substantial increases to early-career earning power. Both sides will dig in their heels. Subsequent counters will be made, but it’s unlikely we’ll see any serious movement in negotiations before November, and in all likelihood, a lockout will drag talks on a new CBA into 2027.
Rockies, John Brebbia Agree To Minor League Deal
The Rockies and veteran reliever John Brebbia are in agreement on a minor league deal, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The Icon Sports client was with the Rox in spring training after signing a minor league deal in December, but he opted out of his contract late in camp. Brebbia then signed a minor league with the Twins, triggered an opt-out last week after a couple months in their system, and was granted his release. He’s now back in the Rockies’ system
The 35-year-old Brebbia struggled through his time in the Twins organization. He pitched 20 1/3 innings with their Triple-A affiliate in St. Paul and was tagged for a 6.20 earned run average that closely mirrors his big league work in the past couple seasons. To his credit, Brebbia started quite well, allowing one run with a 17-to-3 K/BB ratio over his first 10 2/3 innings with the Saints, but he was rocked for 13 runs over his next 9 2/3 innings. He then triggered his out clause and was granted his release.
While Brebbia has a nice overall track record in the majors, he’s had a rough showing the past couple years. He’s pitched for three teams (White Sox, Braves, Tigers) and served up a 6.41 ERA in 78 2/3 innings. Home runs have been his primary undoing; opponents have averaged 1.83 homers per nine innings against him since 2024.
That said, Brebbia has a lifetime 4.04 ERA, 25.6% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate in 378 1/3 major league innings. He’s saved four games and picked up 62 holds while pitching between the Cardinals, Giants, Tigers, White Sox and Braves.
The Rockies’ bullpen is one of the weakest in the sport. Colorado relievers have combined for a 4.51 ERA — 4.56 if you exclude prized young starter Chase Dollander‘s work as a bulk option following an opener. Relievers Jimmy Herget and Victor Vodnik are both on the injured list at the moment (as is Dollander), so bringing in some extra relief depth to stash in the upper minors makes sense for the Rockies — particularly if they end up moving some bullpen arms at this year’s deadline. Free-agent-to-be Antonio Senzatela, who’s in the midst of a breakout campaign in the ‘pen, stands as the most logical trade candidate of the bunch.
Marlins, Amos Willingham Agree To Minor League Deal
The Marlins and right-hander Amos Willingham have agreed to a minor league contract, per Ari Alexander of 7News. The Gaeta Sports Management client is headed to Triple-A Jacksonville for the time being.
Willingham, 27, has pitched in parts of two big league seasons, both with the division-rival Nationals. He’s been tagged for 20 runs on 37 hits and nine walks with 16 strikeouts in 25 1/3 frames, resulting in a 7.11 earned run average. Nine of those 37 knocks against him have been home runs.
Willingham began the season with the Astros’ Triple-A affiliate. He posted a quality 3.38 ERA in 13 1/3 frames but did so while walking more batters (11) than he struck out (nine). With the Astros organization, he was working at 94 mph with his heater — down from his career average of 95.9 mph in the majors — and had increased the use of his changeup at the expense of his cutter and slider.
Despite the lack of big league success, Willingham has an accomplished track record in Triple-A. He’s pitched parts of four seasons there and carries a career 3.59 ERA with a 22.1% strikeout rate, an 11.3% walk rate and a 43.8% ground-ball rate that’s a bit better than the major league average. He also has a minor league option remaining, so if the Marlins select Willingham’s contract and call him to the majors at any point, they can send him back down to Jacksonville without needing to expose him to waivers.
Orioles Activate, Option Heston Kjerstad
The Orioles announced Thursday that outfielder Heston Kjerstad, who’s been out all season due to a hamstring strain, has been reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Norfolk. He’ll fill the lone vacancy on Baltimore’s 40-man roster, which is now at capacity.
Formerly the No. 2 overall draft pick and one of the sport’s top prospects, the now-27-year-old Kjerstad still hasn’t experienced major league success. He’s appeared in parts of three big league seasons but compiled only a .218/.284/.365 slash in a total of 314 trips to the plate. The former Arkansas standout has fanned in 28% of his plate appearances in the majors and walked at only a 5.7% rate. Kjerstad makes a decent amount of hard contact but is far too prone to chasing off the plate and makes contact at a below-average rate when he expands the zone.
Though he’s struggled in limited major league looks, Kjerstad has a productive track record in Triple-A. He’s logged parts of four seasons at the top minor league level and delivered a hearty .274/.354/.482 slash with a 9.4% walk rate and 24% strikeout rate. He’s homered 29 times, collected 36 doubles and logged seven triples in 755 plate appearances at that level.
To this point, Kjerstad has never really gotten an extended look as an everyday outfielder. Health troubles have played a role in that but aren’t entirely at the root of the issue. He dealt with myocarditis early in his professional career and has twice been on the major league injured list due to concussions. Last year’s season ended with an unspecified medical issue; he reported severe fatigue to the Orioles, which prompted a wave of testing. The team never disclosed the results of that testing, but Kjerstad appears healthy enough for game action now.
Looking past those medical issues, however, Kjerstad’s calls to the majors have typically come to replace a more established outfielder who’s on the shelf with an injury. The O’s have also platooned him heavily despite pretty decent left-on-left numbers in the minors from 2022-24. The Orioles were rebuilding when Kjerstad was drafted in 2020, but much of his time on the cusp of the majors (and in the majors) has come when the O’s have been operating with more of a win-now focus. That’s led to veteran acquisitions of Tyler O’Neill, Taylor Ward, Ramon Laureano and others. Some have worked out better than others, but all have combined to cut into would-be opportunities for Kjerstad.
Assuming Kjerstad spends more than 20 days in the minors, today’s transaction will burn his final minor league option year. The O’s will presumably want to get him a real look later in the season, as he’ll head into 2027 without any minor league options, meaning he’d have to make the roster or else be designated for assignment. Young outfielders like Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers haven’t really cemented themselves as fixtures in the Oriole outfield as the team had hoped, so there might still be some opportunity for Kjerstad to seize a spot if he’s called up later this year. If not, he’ll have to win a job heading into the ’27 season. Speculatively speaking, he could also emerge as a change of scenery candidate at this year’s deadline or in the offseason.