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Orioles, Pete Alonso Agree To Five-Year Deal

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The Orioles missed out on Kyle Schwarber yesterday but are getting their big bat today, as ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that they’re finalizing a five-year, $155MM deal with longtime Mets first baseman Pete Alonso. The agreement is in place with only a physical yet to be completed, Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds. There are no deferrals or opt-outs in the contract, per MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo. Andy Kostka of the Baltimore Banner adds that Alonso receives a limited no-trade clause. Alonso is represented by the Boras Corporation.

It’s the second major defection from the Mets in as many days. Edwin Diaz spurned Queens for a three-year, $69MM deal with the Dodgers just yesterday. Alonso now heads to the Orioles, with whom he met in person at this week’s Winter Meetings (which are being held in Orlando, not all that far from Alonso’s Tampa-area home).

Although bolstering the rotation has been the obvious goal for Baltimore all offseason, the O’s have also been in pursuit of a major upgrade to the lineup. They offered Kyle Schwarber the same five-year, $150MM terms to which he agreed in his return to the Phillies and have now pushed incrementally further to give Alonso a record-setting average annual value for a first baseman over that same five-year term.

Alonso, who turned 31 over the weekend, famously rejected a reported seven-year, $158MM extension offer from the Mets back in 2023. He drew a fair bit of criticism for that decision, particularly when his market didn’t develop as hoped during last offseason’s initial foray into free agency. Alonso wound up returning to the Mets on a two-year, $54MM deal that was frontloaded with a $30MM salary in 2025 and allowed him to opt back into free agency this winter.

Between that $30MM, the $20.5MM he earned in his final season of arbitration eligibility and the newly promised $155MM from the Orioles, Alonso will end up with $205.5MM over the same seven years that would’ve been covered under the extension offer he turned down.

In Alonso, the Orioles are adding one of the steadiest power hitters on the planet. He’s slugged at least 34 home runs in every 162-game season since his 2019 debut, plus another 16 round-trippers in the shortened 2020 campaign. Dating back to 2019, Schwarber (268) and Aaron Judge (285) are the only players with more home runs than Alonso’s 264.

Steady as his power output has been, Alonso needed a “rebound” campaign of sorts in order to get this type of long-term deal. While his market last offseason was surely weighed down by a qualifying offer — players can only receive one QO in their career, so that wasn’t an issue this time around — Alonso had slugged a career-low 34 home runs with an increase in strikeouts and a downturn in his batted-ball metrics. His .240/.329/.459 output in 2024 was more good than elite.

The 2025 campaign brought improvements across the board. Alonso belted 38 homers and 41 doubles (up from 31 the year prior) while slashing .272/.347/.524 (141 wRC+). He lopped two percentage points off his strikeout rate, cutting it to a roughly average 22.8%, and saw enormous upticks in his average exit velocity (93.5 mph in ’25, 89.8 mph in ’24), barrel rate (18.9% vs. 13.2%) and hard-hit rate (54.4% vs. 46.4%). Alonso struggled through a poor month of July, but as the Mets were fighting for their postseason lives (and ultimately falling short), Alonso put the team’s offense on his back alongside fellow stars Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor. From Aug. 1 onward, the “Polar Bear” raked at a .297/.339/.584 clip (153 wRC+) with 16 home runs and 15 doubles in 239 plate appearances.

Despite that Herculean finish to the season, Alonso received tepid interest from the only club he’s ever known. The Mets were reportedly reluctant to go beyond three years in their talks with Alonso, and the New York Post’s Joel Sherman reported in the aftermath of today’s agreement that they never made a formal offer once it became clear where Alonso’s market was headed. That’s surely a point of frustration for the majority of Mets fans but also shouldn’t come as a major surprise; if the Mets were going to commit to Alonso long-term under president of baseball operations David Stearns and owner Steve Cohen, that likely would have happened last winter. The Mets were only comfortable with a short-term deal then and clearly didn’t change that thinking this time around.

Alonso is the second 30-homer slugger acquired by Baltimore president of baseball operations Mike Elias this winter. The O’s also picked up outfielder Taylor Ward (36 homers in 2025) in a trade sending talented but oft-injured righty Grayson Rodriguez to the Angels. The additions of Alonso and Ward should both add an influx of right-handed power to a team that hit just .231/.297/.364 against left-handed pitching in 2025 and also create myriad trade possibilities for Elias and his staff.

It’s feasible that the Orioles simply add a prominent starting pitcher via free agency as their primary means of addressing the rotation, but their newly acquired thumpers open the space for more creativity. Alonso’s addition could make it easier to trade young corner infielder Coby Mayo, while plugging Ward into a corner outfield spot makes one of Dylan Beavers or Colton Cowser easier to include in a trade for pitching help. Baltimore’s decision to tender a contract to Ryan Mountcastle, a defensively limited right-handed slugger coming off a poor season, now looks like all the more of a head-scratcher, though. The O’s could try to find a taker willing to buy low on him or, alternatively, hope that he can bounce back and be part of the solution between first base and designated hitter.

Payroll-wise, there was always clear runway to add a major contract to the books. The Orioles have spent the better part of the past decade in a rebuild and thus haven’t been handing out multi-year deals very often. The only players guaranteed anything beyond the upcoming 2026 season are Tyler O’Neill, Ryan Helsley and Samuel Basallo. O’Neill and Helsley are only signed through 2027, and Helsley can opt out of his contract following the 2026 season. (O’Neill’s $16.5MM salary in 2027 is all but immovable after his ugly 2025 showing.) Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM extension has just an $8.375MM average annual value. His salary will sit at just $1MM in each of the next three seasons and won’t top $10MM until 2031, at which point Alonso’s contract will have already wrapped up.

Alonso adds $31MM per year to the ledger — assuming an even distribution of his $155MM — but the rest of the books are so clean that it shouldn’t impede the Orioles from future additions of note and/or extensions for prominent young players. RosterResource now projects them for a payroll just under $148MM in 2026, but the 2027 books only have $62.5MM in guaranteed money ($48.5MM if Helsley turns down his player option). By 2028, Alonso and Basallo are the only players guaranteed anything.

Alonso’s contract becomes the second-largest in Orioles history, trailing only the seven-year, $161MM contract given to first baseman Chris Davis under a prior ownership and front office regime. That contract was laden with deferrals, too, which considerably weighed down the net present value.

When considering that wrinkle, the investment in Alonso can be considered the most significant expenditure in franchise history — but it’s also just one of several steps the Orioles will take this winter. Elias is still angling to upgrade his team’s rotation, and the O’s could still use help in the bullpen. This could very well end up being viewed as the signature move of the offseason — if not the entire Elias era to date — but the O’s aren’t likely to coast from here to spring training. There’s more on the horizon.

Mets, Carl Edwards Jr. Agree To Minor League Deal

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TODAY: In an interesting twist, the Mets may utilize Edwards as a starter at Triple-A, according to Sammon and Ken Rosenthal.  Edwards has never started a big league game, but he made 19 Triple-A starts over the last two seasons with the Rangers, Angels, and Padres’ top affiliates, plus he made 14 starts in the Mexican League in 2025.

DECEMBER 8: The Mets have agreed to a minor league contract with free agent reliever Carl Edwards Jr., reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. Edwards, a client of the Ballengee Group, will be in major league camp next spring as a non-roster invitee.

Edwards, 34, pitched just six big league innings last season between the Angels and Rangers, allowing three runs on four hits and three walks with six punchouts. He’s pitched for eight teams across parts of 11 major league seasons, totaling a 3.56 ERA, 28% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate in 286 frames.

Once regarded as a top pitching prospect, the 6’3″, 165-pound Edwards settled in as an important reliever with the Cubs back in their 2016 World Series run and in subsequent seasons. From 2016-18, the “Stringbean Slinger” tossed 154 1/3 innings of 3.03 ERA ball with a huge 34.2% strikeout rate but a hefty 13.5% walk rate.

Edwards slipped into journeyman status shortly thereafter, as his command troubles worsened and his struggles became untenable. He had a resurgence with the Nats in 2022-23, however, combining for 93 2/3 innings with a 3.07 earned run average. His 20.1% strikeout rate was a far cry from his Cubs peak, although his 10.6% walk rate was also an improvement.

Edwards spent the bulk of last season in Triple-A, working to a 4.44 ERA through 50 2/3 frames in an extremely hitter-friendly environment. He set down 25.8% of his opponents on strikes and posted a 7.2% walk rate that stands as the best mark of his career in any notable sample. He also induced grounders at a hearty 54.9% rate in Triple-A. He’ll be a veteran depth option with the Mets — one of several such additions surely on the docket this winter.

Brewers’ Nick Mears Garnering Trade Interest

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The Brewers are getting calls about right-handed reliever Nick Mears as teams around the league look for under-the-radar bullpen help, per Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic. Milwaukee has also gotten plenty of interest in closer Trevor Megill and ace Freddy Peralta this winter. There’s no indication the Brewers are especially motivated to part with any of the bunch.

Mears, 29, landed with the Brewers ahead of the 2024 trade deadline in a deal sending pitchers Bradley Blalock and Yujanyer Herrera back to the Rockies. An undrafted free agent signed by the Pirates following the 2018 draft, Mears was traded to the Rockies for Connor Joe, claimed off waivers by the Rangers and reclaimed by the Rockies before settling into a bullpen role in Denver during that 2024 campaign.

At the time of the trade, Mears had an ERA in the mid-5.00s but had shown quality swing-and-miss ability. He struggled to a 7.30 ERA down the stretch in Milwaukee, but the Brewers kept him for the 2025 season anyhow. Mears rewarded that faith by breaking out as a solid setup arm.

In 56 2/3 innings this past season, Mears notched 16 holds and a save while pitching to a 3.49 earned run average. The 6’3″, 217-pound righty scaled back his fastball usage and ramped up his slider usage with the Brewers. He actually struck out fewer hitters in 2025 than in 2024 but continued to post terrific swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates. Mears has also dramatically improved his command as a Brewer; after walking more than 12% of his opponents in parts of two seasons with the Rox, he’s issued a free pass to only 5.8% of his opponents with the Brew Crew.

Mears is under club control through the 2027 season. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a modest $1.6MM salary for the well-traveled righty after that 2025 breakout. Given that modest salary expectation, there’s little to no financial incentive for the Brewers to move him. However, Milwaukee is always open-minded about trading players as they inch closer to free agency. Mears has the potential to be an important piece of manager Pat Murphy’s late-inning relief corps this season, but he could also fetch a modest prospect if the Brewers feel confident that they can weather his loss.

Megill, Abner Uribe, Grant Anderson, Jared Koenig and Aaron Ashby all pitched to earned run averages of 3.23 or better in 2025 — each of them with a better-than-average strikeout rate. No one from that group walked more than Anderson’s 9.7% of opponents, so there aren’t many command issues with the quintet, either. Lefties Rob Zastryzny and DL Hall logged solid ERA marks as well, albeit with less impressive strikeout and walk rates. The Brewers also have 26-year-old Craig Yoho, who posted video-game numbers in the upper minors this season, as well as a plethora of young starters who could move to relief roles due to the depth in the system (e.g. Tobias Myers, Coleman Crow).

Notably, Mears is one of just two out-of-options relievers the Brewers have (in addition to Zastryzny). That fact could make him slightly easier to pry loose than some of his optionable bullpen counterparts, who inherently provide more flexibility to a Brewers team that often takes an all-hands-on-deck approach to its pitching usage and regularly shuffles up the lower-leverage portion of its relief corps. Time will tell whether the depth they possess ultimately leads to a trade, of course, but Mears is at least a name for fans of payroll-conscious clubs in need of bullpen help to keep in the back of their minds.

Rangers Have Not Had Substantial Trade Talks Regarding Corey Seager

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The Rangers, as they look to address several areas of need on the roster while simultaneously scaling back payroll, have received numerous calls on star shortstop Corey Seager. However, while Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News lists the Red Sox (as was reported last night), Yankees and Braves as teams that have inquired, he adds that the Rangers are not at all motivated to move Seager and haven’t had any meaningful trade talks regarding the five-time All-Star.

On the surface, it sounds like a fairly similar situation to that of Ketel Marte in Arizona. Seager, like Marte, is an MVP-caliber talent on a weighty long-term contract whose current club is hoping to walk the line of simultaneously addressing multiple roster needs and scaling back the payroll. The Rangers aren’t expressly turning teams away but also aren’t shopping Seager and would surely need multiple controllable young big leaguers who could help immediately if they were to even entertain the idea of a trade.

Seager, 32 in April, was limited to 102 games last season thanks to multiple hamstring strains but continued to produce at an elite level when on the field. He hit .271/.373/.487 last season and touts a huge .294/.372/.544 batting line in his past 1514 plate appearances as a Ranger. That’s 52% better than league-average production after weighting for his home park, by measure of wRC+. Seager also walked at a career-best 13% clip in 2025 and notched the second- or third-best marks of his career in average exit velocity (92.9 mph), barrel rate (15.3%) and hard-hit rate (53.6%). He also posted a career-high 16 Defensive Runs Saved, while Statcast’s Outs Above Average credited him as a positive defender (+4) for the third time in the past four seasons.

The Rangers signed Seager to a 10-year, $325MM contract prior to the 2022 season. He’s lived up to that massive payday thus far but is still owed $186MM over the next six seasons (paid out evenly at $31MM per year). Adding that type of commitment would send the Yankees careening into the top tier of luxury penalization for a third straight season. They’re currently just shy of the third-tier cutoff ($284MM), per RosterResource. As soon as they cross that line, they’ll be subject to a 95% tax on subsequent additions and will see their top pick in next year’s draft dropped by 10 places. Effectively, Seager could cost them double the remaining commitment on his contract.

It’s not quite so extreme in Boston, where the Red Sox are about $20MM shy of the first luxury tier. Seager would push them into the first tier for a second straight season. They’d owe a 30% tax on the roughly $11MM of Seager’s contract that clocks in beyond that first penalty line. Once they’re more than $20MM over the limit, that’d jump to 42%. Crossing the threshold by more than $40MM would push the Red Sox’ top draft pick back 10 spots and bump the tax on subsequent additions to 72.5%.

The Braves are currently the furthest of this group from the luxury tax threshold, sitting about $33MM shy on RosterResource’s projections. They could technically add Seager without hitting the tax line, though acquiring him would effectively signal a willingness to pay the tax, as they’d be about $2MM away from the first-tier cutoff and have several other acquisitions they’d like to make. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that Atlanta is one of eight teams on Seager’s limited no-trade list. That only further reduces the likelihood of a deal. Seager will gain full no-trade protection after the 2026 season, by virtue of 10-and-5 rights.

It’s still not entirely clear what type of payroll figure Rangers ownership has in mind. Texas currently projects for a payroll around $169MM, which is about $47MM shy of last year’s Opening Day mark. They’re looking for help behind the plate, at first base and on the pitching staff. That’s a lot of boxes to check, clearly, but there should be at least some room for modest spending. There are also various trade avenues to explore that don’t involve shipping out their best all-around position player (or one of their best but expensive arms like Jacob deGrom or Nathan Eovaldi, for that matter).

It’s of at least moderate note that Texas didn’t outright dismiss the possibility of trading Seager, but it’s more notable that they’re not digging deeply into the possibility. If one of the interested parties presents a compelling enough offer, perhaps the Rangers would ponder such a switch, but this appears to be a very different scenario than, say, the Cardinals — a rebuilding club with motivation to shed several veteran contracts and a willingness to pay down some of that salary. Seager’s name may well continue to surface in rumors, just as we’ve seen with Marte in Arizona or Tarik Skubal in Detroit, but that doesn’t mean he’s all that available or that the Rangers are eager to deal him.

Pirates, Reds Among Teams Interested In Brandon Lowe

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The Rays are known to be listening to offers on second baseman Brandon Lowe, whose $11.5MM club option was picked up by the team at the start of the offseason. Lowe will be a free agent next winter. The Pirates have inquired about Lowe, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi, and the Reds have also discussed the slugging second baseman, per Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon of The Athletic.

The 31-year-old Lowe has been a consistently above-average hitter throughout his big league tenure, dating all the way back to his MLB debut in 2018. That includes 2025, when Lowe belted 31 home runs in just 134 games. The lefty-swinging slugger turned in an overall .256/.307/.477 batting line. While his 6.9% walk rate was the lowest of his career, Lowe’s 91.1 mph average exit velocity and 46.4% hard-hit rate were some of the best he’s posted in his eight major league seasons.

Over the course of those eight big league campaigns, Lowe is a .247/.326/.481 hitter with 157 home runs, 126 doubles, 12 triples, 33 steals, a 9.4% walk rate and a 27.3% strikeout rate. He’s typically graded out as a solid defensive second baseman, though he was dogged by both Defensive Runs Saved (-14) and Statcast’s Outs Above Average (-13) during the 2025 season. It bears mentioning that he missed time with ankle and oblique injuries in ’25, either of which could have impacted him defensively. Those maladies only added to a relatively lengthy injury history; Lowe has also missed time due to multiple back injuries, a bone bruise in his shin and a fractured kneecap.

Pittsburgh stands as a clean and obvious fit. The Bucs are looking for power bats to add to the lineup, and Lowe has plus power from the left side — a key distinction for Pirates targets, as PNC Park is the toughest environment in MLB for right-handed home run power. It’s a pitcher-friendly venue in general, but left-handed power isn’t suppressed nearly as much as right-handed pop.

The Pirates lack a clear option at second base. Former top-10 pick Nick Gonzales hasn’t hit in parts of three big league seasons, slashing just .257/.300/.375. Even if the Pirates want to give him another look, it could come at another position. Gonzales played a career-high 109 innings at shortstop last year and has dabbled at third base. Nick Yorke, another former first-rounder (2020) whom Pittsburgh acquired from the Red Sox in exchange for Quinn Priester, has struggled in a small sample of 33 MLB games. Former top prospect Termarr Johnson had a nice season in Double-A last year but is just 21 years old and has yet to play at the Triple-A level. Lowe could serve as a bridge for Johnson, the No. 4 overall pick back in 2022.

It’s been an uncharacteristically aggressive offseason for the Pirates, even if their efforts in free agency have yet to bear fruit. They were reportedly willing to offer Josh Naylor around $80MM and put forth a franchise-record $120-125MM offer to Kyle Schwarber before he agreed to return to the Phillies on a five-year, $150MM deal. Adding Lowe in a trade with Tampa Bay wouldn’t be as big a splash but could provide some of the thump the Bucs are known to seek as they look to provide support for their terrific young rotation. Given that the Bucs were willing to go those reported lengths on Naylor and especially Schwarber, Lowe’s $11.5MM salary shouldn’t be any kind of deterrent.

For the Reds, Lowe isn’t quite as clean a fit — at least not at second base. Cincinnati hopes that former first-round pick and fifth-place Rookie of the Year finisher Matt McLain can bounce back after a brutal 2025 showing. McLain hit .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals in only 89 games as a rookie in 2023 before missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery. He returned in 2025 but mustered only a .220/.300/.343 line in 147 games.

Even with McLain likely taking some of the time at second base, there could be room for Lowe. First and foremost, McLain has a full slate of minor league options remaining. Cincinnati could try to get him back on track in Triple-A Louisville if he struggles next spring. Lowe also has experience in left field and at first base. Plus, either player could slot in for occasional DH work. McLain is a talented defender, but some relative “downtime” at DH could conceivably keep him healthier. He made only three DH appearances this past season.

One outside-the-box possibility for the Rays and their longtime second baseman could hinge on Tampa Bay’s interest in Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte. The Rays have inquired with the Snakes about Marte, according to The Athletic, and one scenario they’ve considered could send Brandon Lowe to Arizona as part of that return. Tampa Bay would surely need to add immediate rotation help and likely some prospect value as well in order to even get the D-backs to consider the possibility.

The Diamondbacks have repeatedly downplayed the swirling spate of trade rumblings surrounding Marte, who is signed for another six years and $102.5MM. General manager Mike Hazen has publicly called a trade “unlikely” but acknowledged that he never outright dismisses interest in any player. He’ll always hear teams out as a matter of diligence. Hazen has also contended that teams have inquired on Marte repeatedly over the past several offseasons, but that attention simply hasn’t generated as much public chatter as it has this time around. Still, the Rays make for an interesting entrant into the bidding, if only because their perennial payroll concerns make them an unexpected landing spot for a player with more than $100MM still remaining on his contract.

There are plenty of interconnected pieces at play with regard to the Rays, Pirates, Reds and D-backs in all these trade scenarios. The Reds, Rosenthal and Sammon note, also have interest in Marte. As with Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, they have plenty of affordable young pitching to dangle in trade talks. The Diamondbacks are loath to part with Marte, but the Reds, Pirates and Rays have deeper stocks of pitching to try to persuade Arizona than many of their rivals throughout the league.

D-backs Rumors: Marte, Johnson, Front Office

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Even as general manager Mike Hazen continues to downplay the possibility of a trade, Diamondbacks second baseman Ketel Marte is one of the most talked-about players around baseball’s Winter Meetings at the moment. Hazen has called a trade unlikely, stating that despite far more public chatter this offseason, the amount of interest he’s receiving in Marte is in line with the robust interest he’s received in past offseasons. Like most front office leaders around the sport, Hazen has said that it’s his job to at least hear out inquiring teams on virtually any player, Marte included.

Arizona’s asking price has been reported to be anywhere from high to exorbitant. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds more detail, reporting that one club who inquired with the Diamondbacks came away with the belief that it’d take an “established, well-regarded” starting pitcher and multiple additional pieces of value — presumably, controllable young big leaguers or nearly MLB-ready prospects.

While Marte has been connected to a litany of teams thus far, not all are in serious pursuit. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith reports that while the Blue Jays have checked in, their interest is more a case of due diligence than one of aggressively trying to make a deal happen. The starting point of an established young rotation piece would be hard for the Jays to include in their offer, Nicholson-Smith notes, and Trey Yesavage is really the only player on the roster who fits that role (and that would very likely be an understandable breaking point for the Jays). Similarly, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe suggests that while the Red Sox have looked into the possibility, Boston hasn’t been all that aggressive when discussing Marte with the D-backs.

Marte, 32, is owed $102.5MM over the next six seasons, though the sixth year on his contract is a player option valued at $11.5MM. That’s a hefty commitment but also less than he’d receive in free agency right now, coming off a .283/.368/.519 showing over the past three seasons (.283/.376/.517 in 2025). Moving Marte would, in theory, net the Diamondbacks an immediate rotation piece, multiple young players and $15MM in immediate payroll flexibility that could be used to help fortify the bullpen and/or infield corners (or, perhaps, to add even more rotation depth).

That said, the team is pursing those goals even while listening on its star infielder. Moving Marte, or shedding salary in general, isn’t any sort of prerequisite for the Diamondbacks to further round out the roster. RosterResource currently projects them for a $151MM payroll following yesterday’s $7.5MM deal with starting pitcher Michael Soroka. Owner Ken Kendrick has said payroll will decrease this season, but no firm number has been given. The D-backs are more than $35MM shy of last season’s Opening Day mark. There’s room to spend even if the budget will scale back.

The Soroka deal speaks to that, as do some of the team’s other pursuits. Arizona and right-hander Merrill Kelly reportedly have mutual interest in a reunion. The Snakes are reported to have interest in closer Pete Fairbanks. Just this morning, Piecoro reported that former Braves reliever Pierce Johnson is also of interest to the Diamondbacks.

Johnson, 35 in May, has spent the past two-plus seasons in Atlanta after going from the Rockies to the Braves at the 2023 trade deadline. He turned things around amid a brutal ’23 season following that swap, pitching to a 0.76 ERA down the stretch for his new club and earning himself a two-year, $14.25MM extension. Overall, Johnson totaled 139 innings and logged a tidy 2.91 earned run average during his time calling Truist Park home.

The Braves somewhat surprisingly declined a 2026 club option on Johnson, valued at $7MM, in favor of a $250K buyout. Given Johnson’s results in Atlanta and the modest (net) price tag of $6.75MM, there was a strong case to pick the option up.

Perhaps Atlanta was concerned about Johnson’s poor finish to the season. Nearly half the runs he allowed on the year came over the final month of play. From Aug. 25 onward, Johnson was rocked for nine runs on 19 hits and three walks. Four of those 19 knocks left the yard. His strikeout rate dropped nearly three percentage points, and his average fastball dipped by about 0.4 mph.

That could set the stage for Johnson to sign a one-year deal — or perhaps a two-year pact at a lighter AAV than the $7MM turned down by Atlanta. That sort of price point would work nicely for a D-backs club that’s trying to add multiple starters and multiple relievers in relatively affordable fashion. One move that won’t garner as many headlines but could still yield notable dividends to the team’s pitching hopes happened on the front office side of things earlier today, however.

Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reported this morning that Jeremy Bleich, the Pirates’ director of pitching development, is leaving the organization to join the Diamondbacks as an assistant general manager.

Bleich, 38, is a Stanford product whom the Yankees selected with the 44th overall pick back in 2008. He made one big league appearance on the mound with the 2018 Athletics but ended his playing career after the 2019 season. Bleich has been with the Pirates since 2020 and has played a role in helping to cultivate the organization’s enviable pipeline of young pitching talent. Paul Skenes was likely to develop into an ace wherever he landed, but the Bucs have had a high conversion rate on second- and third-round picks like Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones, Bubba Chandler and Hunter Barco, among others, and have seen lower picks (e.g. 11th-rounder Mike Burrows) develop into quality big league contributors. The Diamondbacks, conversely, have struggled to finish the development of their top pitching prospects in recent seasons.

Diamondbacks prospects who’ve ranked among the top of their system but have yet to pan out in the majors in recent years include Brandon Pfaadt, Bryce Jarvis, Blake Walston, Corbin Martin and Drey Jameson, to name a few. Since 2019, Ryne Nelson is the only pitcher the D-backs have drafted and received even three total WAR from in the majors. Bleich obviously can’t be solely credited with the Pirates’ success in pitcher development, but it’s not at all surprising to see the Snakes pry a prominent name in pitching development away from a rival club as they look to improve their fortunes moving forward.

Dodgers To Sign Edwin Diaz

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2:33pm: Diaz’s contract with the Dodgers contains $4.5MM in deferred salary annually, reports Sherman. The net-present value, for luxury tax purposes, is roughly $21.1MM.

10:35am: For the second straight offseason, the Dodgers are signing the top relief arm on the market. They’ve reportedly agreed to a three-year, $69MM contract with now-former Mets closer Edwin Diaz. It’s a record-setting annual value for a reliever, breaking the $20.4MM record that Diaz himself already held.

Diaz, a Wasserman client, returned to the open market this winter when he opted out of the final two seasons of the precedent-setting five-year, $102MM contract he signed with the Mets the last time he was a free agent. The right-hander had been guaranteed $38MM over the final two seasons of that contract, so by opting out and testing the market, he secured himself an additional one year and $31MM in guarantees. The Mets, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, offered Diaz a three-year, $66MM deal with “slight” deferrals.

The 31-year-old Diaz (32 in March) has spent the past seven years in Queens and, after a rocky first campaign, has turned in a collective 2.36 ERA (2.12 SIERA, 2.15 FIP) with a mammoth 40.8% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate. He’s piled up 144 saves in 332 appearances as a Met.

For the Dodgers, Diaz represents the most on-the-nose means of addressing a problem that nearly doomed them in the postseason: a lack of reliable bullpen help. Injuries to Evan Phillips, Tanner Scott, Brusdar Graterol and others left the Dodgers with a thin enough stock of trustworthy relievers that L.A. turned to Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto (one day after he threw nearly 100 pitches) in pivotal high-leverage settings during their World Series run. That they even progressed to the World Series was largely attributable to historic performances from starters Yamamoto, Snell, Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in the postseason’s earlier rounds.

The Dodgers have now signed the top reliever on the market in consecutive offseasons. They inked Tanner Scott to a four-year, $72MM pact last winter, though that deal contained $21MM worth of deferred money, thus knocking down the present value. Scott’s first year in L.A. didn’t go at all as hoped; he limped to a 4.74 ERA with improved command but lesser velocity and strikeout rates. After yielding 11 home runs in the 2022-24 seasons combined, Scott served up 11 round-trippers in his first season as a Dodger.

Certainly, they’ll hope for better results with Diaz, whose track record is lengthier and steadier than that of Scott. While he’s naturally had some year-to-year variance in his earned run averages — as is the case for any reliever — Diaz has been at 3.52 or better in each of the past five seasons, including three sub-2.00 campaigns. He’s punched out at least 34.6% of his opponents each season along the way, and since a shaky walk rate in 2021, he’s sat between 7.7% and 9.3% in that regard for four straight seasons.

That’s not to say there aren’t any red flags at all with regard to Diaz. His average fastball velocity has dipped in two consecutive seasons. While this past season’s average of 97.2 mph was still well above average, it’s also two miles per hour shy of Diaz’s 2022 peak. He also gave up considerably more hard contact. Diaz’s 88.5 mph average exit velocity and 39.7% hard-hit rate were both the second-highest marks of his career, trailing only his disastrous 2019 season (his first as a Met). Neither is a glaring issue, particularly considering Diaz maintained elite strikeout and swinging-strike rates (38% and 18%, respectively), but he’ll want to avoid allowing those negative trends to continue, however slight they may currently be.

Diaz will slot into the ninth inning, pushing Scott to a setup role alongside Alex Vesia, Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, Brock Stewart and Graterol. Will Klein, Ben Casparius and Jack Dreyer all had solid or better seasons in 2025, but if everyone is healthy — far from a given — there’s only room for one of that trio in the final bullpen spot. Of course, injuries will inevitably create opportunities for many of the Dodgers’ overqualified depth arms, and each of Klein, Casparius, Dreyer and Edgardo Henriquez have minor league options remaining.

The Dodgers have paid the luxury tax in (more than) three consecutive seasons and are more than $60MM over the $244MM first-tier luxury threshold, meaning they’ll pay a 110% tax on the AAV on Diaz’s contract. However the annual salaries break down, he’ll cost them an additional $25.3MM in taxes alone. Assuming an evenly distributed $23MM per season, RosterResource, now projects next year’s Dodgers payroll at just over $359MM (although that does not account for substantial deferrals to Ohtani, Scott, Freddie Freeman, etc.).

The Mets would have been subject to those same penalties had they matched or topped this offer. Diaz reportedly entered the market seeking a five-year contract. When that didn’t materialize, he clearly pivoted to a record-setting, shorter-term arrangement. The extent of the deferrals in New York’s offer aren’t yet clear, but there’s no indication (yet, anyway) that the Dodgers’ offer includes any deferred money.

While New York couldn’t have known when signing Devin Williams to a three-year, $51MM pact that Diaz would also sign for three years and a total of $18MM more, the results from those two high-end relievers will now be carefully watched by Mets fans for the next three seasons. If Williams returns to form, it’ll look like a savvy pivot to get a comparable reliever at a lesser rate. If not, there will be plenty of second-guessing and criticism from the fan base.

Of course, owner Steve Cohen also clearly has the resources to have simply won the bidding on both relievers, but that’s ultimately not the route the front office chose. They’ll now look to other avenues as they seek to continue adding to the bullpen. The Mets were open to re-signing Diaz even after adding Williams, and while this deal clearly went past their comfort zone, there are other high-end arms still available — Robert Suarez, most notably. Choosing to let Diaz walk also frees up further resources for a potential re-signing of Pete Alonso or perhaps a run at another target of note.

The Mets bid farewell to Diaz, who rejected a $22.025MM qualifying offer, with only minimal compensation for his departure. Due to their status as luxury tax payors, they’ll receive a compensatory draft pick after the fourth round of next summer’s draft. The Dodgers, meanwhile, will surrender their second- and fifth-highest selections in next year’s draft. The league-allotted cap on their personal spending pool for international amateur free agents will also be reduced by $1MM.

Such considerations tend to be ancillary for the market’s top-spending clubs. Perennial luxury payors consider them the cost of doing business in the deepest waters of the free agent pool. The Dodgers have punted draft picks to sign Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman (among others) in recent seasons. For them, the allure of adding a closer with nearly unrivaled dominance takes precedence as they try to assemble a roster capable of winning three consecutive World Series for the first time since the 1998-2000 Yankees.

The Athletic’s Will Sammon first reported the agreement. Sammon and colleague Ken Rosenthal were also the first to report the three-year term. ESPN’s Jeff Passan broke the total guarantee. Joel Sherman and Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported the Dodgers’ emerging interest in Diaz shortly before the agreement became public.

Mets Reportedly Reluctant To Go Beyond Three Years For Pete Alonso

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As the Mets watched one stalwart depart in free agency this morning, they’re faced with the possibility of another. Longtime first baseman Pete Alonso is at the Winter Meetings in Orlando, sitting down with interested teams as he tests the free agent market for a second straight offseason. (Alonso opted out of the second season of a two-year deal with the Mets last month.) Many Mets fans are hoping, particularly with Edwin Diaz headed to Los Angeles, that a new deal with Alonso is in the cards. MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand casts some doubt on that likelihood, reporting that the Mets may be “hesitant” to stretch beyond three guaranteed years to re-sign Alonso.

It’s a familiar scene. The Mets wound up re-signing Alonso last offseason after he rejected their qualifying offer, but only on a two-year contract that allowed him to return to the market this winter via an opt-out. The Mets never seemed keen on giving Alonso the long-term deal he sought following the 2024 season, and that apparently hasn’t changed much a year later.

Alonso is coming off a better season at the plate this time around than he was in 2024, but he’s (of course) also a year older. A three-year deal would cover his age-31 through age-33 seasons. That’s not all that deep into his potential decline years, but while Alonso enjoyed a small decrease in strikeouts and uptick in batted-ball quality, he also saw his already poor defensive grades dip even further. Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average both dinged him at minus-9. Alonso is open to more DH time moving forward, but that apparently doesn’t make the team all that eager to lock Alonso in for his age-34 season or later.

Looking more generally at the current MLB landscape, the market simply hasn’t compensated first-base-only players with middling OBP skills much in recent years, regardless of power output. Alonso is an extreme version of that skill set — one of the most consistent power bats on the planet — but he typically walks at a 9-10% clip and posts an on-base percentage at or slightly above league-average. Defensive acumen and plate discipline can often boost a player’s floor in the eyes of modern evaluators; given that Alonso doesn’t stand out in either regard, there’s likely some real worry (from the Mets and other suitors) that an eventual decline could be precipitous in nature.

Any reluctance on stretching longer-term doesn’t (or at least shouldn’t) stem from payroll concerns. The Mets’ payroll, while enormous, actually begins to open up in the not-too-distant future. They’re currently projected for $278MM in payroll and CBT obligations next season, per RosterResource. That drops to about a $176MM in roster allocations in 2027 (and $181MM in CBT obligations), and by the time we get out to 2028, they “only” have about $134MM on the books. Beginning in 2029, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor are the only players guaranteed anything.

Today’s report doesn’t expressly rule out a reunion between Alonso and the Mets, but it’s long seemed that if the Mets were interested in signing Alonso to a true long-term contract, it’d have happened last offseason. The fact that it didn’t and that they’re again looking short-term this winter implies that if Alonso is to return to Queens, it’s likelier to happen later in the offseason — after other suitors have spent their money elsewhere, creating a similar set of circumstances to those that paved the way for the two parties’ previous reunion.

Red Sox Have Had Talks With Eugenio Suárez

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As the Red Sox look to add power to their lineup, they’ve talked internally about the possibility of signing Eugenio Suárez and held some talks with his camp, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. The team’s interest in Suárez is all the more notable with the market’s top slugger, Kyle Schwarber, off the board on a five-year deal that’ll keep in Philadelphia. The Red Sox were known to have interest in Schwarber.

Speier frames Suarez as something of a fallback at third base, should Alex Bregman sign elsewhere, or a possible piece of the first base (and, presumably, designated hitter) puzzle. Playing Suárez full-time or even semi-regularly at first base might be a stretch, though the D-backs and Mariners both gave him short looks there in 2025. That was a total of only six innings — the first of his career — but some have speculated that Suárez could slide across the diamond as he moves into his mid-30s. Regular work at DH would only be feasible if the Sox were to find a taker for Masataka Yoshida.

Suárez, 34, ranked fifth among all big leaguers with 49 home runs this past season, trailing only Shohei Ohtani, Schwarber, Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge. He hit .228/.298/.526 on the season as a whole, though that production was weighed down a bit by some struggles in the immediate aftermath of a trade from Arizona back to Seattle. Suárez stumbled out of the gate in his return to the Emerald City, slashing an anemic .141/.188/.266 in his first 69 plate appearances. To some extent, he turned things around thereafter, popping 11 homers over his final 151 plate appearances, but he did so with a huge strikeout rate and sub-.300 OBP.

That sort of stretch is par for the course with Suárez, a prodigious slugger who’s prone to strikeouts. In past seasons, his walk rate has helped to compensate for some of that swing-and-miss penchant. That’s not quite been the case in 2024-25, as Suárez’s walk rate has dipped to a slightly below-average 7.3%.

Suárez still makes tons of loud contact (90.2 mph average exit velocity, 47.6% hard-hit rate), but he chased off the plate at a career-high 31% clip last season — a significant problem for a hitter whose 39% contact rate on pitches off the plate was among the lowest in baseball. That poor contact rate when chasing isn’t a backbreaker in and of itself, but it is when coupled with such a prominent propensity to chase. Judge, for instance, had the worst contact rate among all qualified hitters on balls off the plate, per Statcast. However, he chased just 22.3% of such offerings.

Concerns about his OBP and strikeouts notwithstanding, Suárez clearly has some of the most power in the game. And, at 34 years of age (35 next July), he’s not going to exceed three years on his next contract and could plausibly command only two with a premium annual value. Suárez is also revered as a teammate, which played a role in the Mariners’ desire to reacquire him after originally trading him when ownership mandated payroll cuts following the 2023 season.

It doesn’t sound as though Suárez is Boston’s top option, but the Red Sox join the Cubs and incumbent Mariners as known teams intrigued by the righty-swinging slugger’s thunderous power so far this offseason.

Twins Looking To Add Bullpen Help, Power Bat

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The Twins tore down their bullpen in July, trading five relievers as part of a deadline fire sale that shipped a whopping 11 players out of the Twin Cities. They’re planning to hold onto stars Byron Buxton, Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan, however, and will be looking to make some additions via free agency and trade over the remainder of the offseason. Specifically, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and general manager Jeremy Zoll called out restocking that barren bullpen and adding at least one power bat to the lineup as areas of focus (links via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic).

Minnesota carried one of the best bullpens in the entire sport into the trade deadline. Twins relievers posted a middling 4.29 ERA through July 29, but that number was skewed by some position players working mop-up duty and some brutal results from relievers who’d already been designated for assignment (e.g. Jorge Alcala). Minnesota’s top relievers had all been good to excellent. Jhoan Duran (2.01 ERA), Louis Varland (2.02), Griffin Jax (3.91 ERA but a 37 K%), Brock Stewart (2.38 ERA) and Danny Coulombe (0.90 ERA) formed a terrific nucleus. All were traded.

The returns from that bunch brough back a blend of well-regarded prospects (e.g. Eduardo Tait, Kendry Rojas) and controllable big leaguers (e.g. Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, Alan Roden). They also trimmed a few million dollars off the 2025 budget and nearly $13MM in projected arbitration salaries off the 2026 ledger.

Of course, the result of that dismantling was an MLB-worst bullpen down the stretch and a now-barren group that requires significant retooling. Cole Sands, Justin Topa and trade pickup Eric Orze are the only things close to established, MLB-caliber arms in the bullpen at present. Left-hander Kody Funderburk was terrific down the stretch (0.75 ERA in 24 post-deadline innings) but has a shakier overall track record in the majors.

The Twins aren’t going to spend at top-of-market levels. Initial reports surrounding their change in tenor have indicated that there’s room for modest payroll growth, but Hayes suggests 2026’s Opening Day payroll will probably still be at its lowest point in years (excluding the shortened 2020 season, of course).

Currently, Minnesota projects for a $95MM payroll, per RosterResource. That number would fall closer to $90MM if the team trades outfielder Trevor Larnach, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make $4.7MM but is somewhat redundant on a roster also including Matt Wallner and the aforementioned Roden. The Twins’ top two prospects, Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, are also left-handed-hitting outfielders. Both could make their MLB debut in 2026.

Minnesota figures to add multiple arms to the bullpen. It’s also possible, if not likely, that some of the rotation candidates currently in a deep but unproven mix will wind up pitching meaningful relief innings. Ryan and Lopez are locked into the top two rotation spots. Right-hander Bailey Ober will look to bounce back from an injury-marred season. He’d been a quality third/fourth starter prior to 2025.

Abel, Bradley, Simeon Woods Richardson, David Festa and Zebby Matthews will all vie for rotation jobs as well. All were top-100 prospects prior to their MLB debuts, but most of that bunch has struggled to varying levels. Woods Richardson, who’s out of minor league options and posted a flat 3.00 ERA in his final 14 starts last year (albeit averaging just five frames per start) probably has the biggest leg up at the moment, but spring training will be pivotal in determining the composition of the starting staff.

Even if two of those potential starters end up in the ’pen, there’s still room to add multiple arms. The Twins figure to traffic primarily in low-cost one-year deals, though that’s nothing new for this front office regime. Falvey has been running baseball operations in Minnesota for a decade now, and he’s only given one multi-year contract to a free agent reliever (Addison Reed, on a two-year deal). Pierce Johnson, Paul Sewald, Tommy Kahnle and Jacob Webb are among the notable one-year deal candidates in free agency. The trade market will obviously offer a much wider and harder-to-predict slate of possibilities.

With regard to the lineup, Zoll indicated that Minnesota would like “another bat or two with some thump, with some impact.” The Twins didn’t tip their hand as to potential areas of focus, but first base stands out as an obvious on-paper fit. The bulk of the other positions on the diamond are spoken for. Buxton will be back in center field. The outfield corners will be manned by a combination of Wallner, Larnach, Roden, Austin Martin and, eventually, previously mentioned prospects like Jenkins and Rodriguez (and possibly Gabriel Gonzalez, too). Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee and Luke Keaschall figure to line up at third base, shortstop and second base, respectively. Ryan Jeffers will be back behind the plate.

First base is far less certain. Minnesota could always try one of those corner outfield bats at first, but right now the top option on the depth chart is journeyman Kody Clemens. Affordable options in free agency include Nathaniel Lowe, Rhys Hoskins, Paul Goldschmidt and Josh Bell. The trade market could again present alternatives, with Triston Casas, Alec Burleson, Ryan Mountcastle and Mark Vientos among some of the plausible names to consider.

However things play out, a spending spree isn’t likely, even with the team sitting some $40-45MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll. The Twins haven’t and won’t give any indication as to a final budgetary target, but Hayes speculates that something in the $110MM range might be reasonable. Even if that’s closer to $115MM, the Twins would be looking at about $20MM in total 2026 spending (or closer to $25MM if Larnach is moved). It doesn’t leave a lot of space for additions and could push Falvey, Zoll and the rest of the front office to pursue trades more heavily than free agency, but Minnesota has a deep farm that should allow them to pursue the sort of “creative” scenarios both Falvey and Zoll said will be necessary under this new financial reality.

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