The Red Sox are still reeling from Alex Bregman’s departure for the Cubs but have minimal time to lick their wounds. The free agent and trade markets have begun to pick up some steam, and whatever Boston’s pivot from losing Bregman will be, it’ll need to come together before terribly long. The Bregman deal and the trade of Nolan Arenado from St. Louis to Arizona both figure to get the ball rolling with regard to the infield market. There are also indications that the market for top free agent Kyle Tucker is gaining steam as well. Even though Tucker understandably isn’t a target for a Red Sox team that’s deep in lefty-swinging outfielders, reports of him nearing a decision only give further credence to the idea that the market will accelerate with pitchers and catchers just a month from reporting to spring training.
It’s not entirely clear how Boston will look to counteract Bregman’s defection just yet. Both Bo Bichette and Eugenio Suarez have been mentioned as possible fallback options. The fit in either case makes sense. Both swing right-handed and have batted-ball profiles that would fit well at Fenway Park. Suarez could step into Bregman’s spot at third base. Bichette could play third base or second base. Former top prospects Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell could factor in at whichever of those two positions is not filled externally.
Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive provide some context in their latest column, as does Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Per McAdam and Cotillo, the Red Sox showed preliminary interest in Suarez earlier in the offseason but were first waiting to see how the markets for not only Bregman but also Ketel Marte and Jorge Polanco played out. Suarez’s camp is operating under the assumption that there’s some interest and will soon be told whether the Sox plan to make a serious bid, per the report. Speier’s report generally backs up that line of thinking; he writes that the Red Sox have viewed Suarez as a fallback and had not seriously engaged with his camp prior to Bregman’s signing.
Suarez, 35 in July, popped 49 homers last season but hit .228/.298/.526 overall. He once graded as a strong defender at the hot corner but has seen his defensive grades slip as he’s aged into his mid-30s — as is often the case. His thunderous right-handed power and pull-happy approach make him a natural fit at Fenway Park, where he could pummel the Green Monster with line drives and clear it with regularity, but Suarez finished the season on a down note; his production waned after a trade from the D-backs to the Mariners last summer. After hitting .248/.320/.576 with a 26.8% strikeout rate for the Snakes, he posted a .189/.255/.428 slash with a 36% strikeout rate in 53 games for the M’s.
At the outset of free agency, MLBTR predicted a three-year deal worth a bit more than $20MM annually for Suarez. That contract seemed likely if a team were to make him a priority. That he’s been viewed as something of a fallback to sluggers like Kyle Schwarber and Pete Alonso, as well as top infield free agents like Bregman and Bichette, would at least seem to imply that a two-year deal may now be likelier. A two-year contract certainly would align with the Red Sox’ apparent aversion to long-term deals for players in their 30s, but Boston will face competition in signing him. The Mariners remain open to a reunion, and the Pirates, who’ve spent the offseason searching for power upgrades, have interest as well.
The Sox will face competition with regard to Bichette, too — if they plan to pursue him at all. Bichette is 27 and won’t turn 28 until March. His age makes him a candidate to sign the type of long-term deal the Red Sox have been reluctant to put forth to free agents. Both the MassLive and Globe reports cast significant doubt on whether the Red Sox would actually engage in a legitimate bidding war with a team like the Phillies, who met with Bichette just yesterday and are far more comfortable doling out long-term contracts (at least based on recent history).
Depending on how or even if the Red Sox end up accomplishing their goal of adding another hitter, a reallocation of the funds previously earmarked for Bregman could come into play. Both MassLive and the Globe suggest that a pivot to the rotation is something the Sox could now pursue. Speier suggests that the Sox are “open-minded” with regard to the position another impact player could fill. That could mean the rotation or, speculatively speaking, perhaps a run at improving the catching corps. J.T. Realmuto is still a free agent, and the Phillies reportedly don’t think they can sign both Bichette and Realmuto.
If the Sox pivot to the rotation, there are still some notable names on the market. Tim Healey of the Boston Globe reports that as far back as November, Red Sox brass had an in-person sit-down with Framber Valdez’s camp. That meeting came at the GM Meetings, where Valdez reportedly met with at least the Giants and Orioles as well.
Valdez, 32 next year, might not have been a top target after the Red Sox acquired Sonny Gray and pivoted to upgrading the lineup. However, he’d fit the stated goal of adding a No. 2 starter for a playoff series more directly than Gray. A postseason rotation with options including Garrett Crochet, Valdez, Gray and Brayan Bello would be quite strong, and it’s always possible that a touted young arm like Payton Tolle or Connelly Early forces his way into the mix.
Valdez became a free agent for the first time this offseason when he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros, the only organization he’s ever known. He’s topped 190 innings in three of the past four seasons, pitching to a collective 3.21 ERA in 767 2/3 frames along the way. Valdez’s strikeout rate, walk rate and especially his 60% ground-ball rate have all been far better than the league average during that four-year span.
Signing Valdez, however, would require the Red Sox to punt their second- and fifth-highest selections in this summer’s draft, as well as $1MM of space in next year’s bonus pool for international free agent amateurs. The same is true of longtime Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez and longtime D-backs righty Zac Gallen, both of whom rejected QOs as well. Whether they’d make those future concessions while simultaneously easing their reluctance to commit long-term deals to veterans in their 30s is an open question, but the Red Sox have now missed out on Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber in free agency, and top trade target Marte doesn’t sound like he’ll be moved at all. They’ll need to find a new plan of attack in the coming days, particularly with offseason activity picking back up following the annual holiday-season lull.
