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Zach Eflin Scheduled For Bullpen Session Next Week, Aiming To Be Ready For Opening Day

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After an injury-ruined 2025 season, veteran right-hander Zach Eflin is back with the Orioles on a one-year deal. The 31-year-old (32 in April) underwent a lumbar microdiscectomy procedure in August. At the time, he and the team indicated that while the procedure can come with a recovery timetable of four to eight months, he was hopeful that he’d be able to have a normal offseason after roughly 12 weeks of recovery.

There hasn’t been much concrete information about his rehab window since that time, but on a Zoom call with the Orioles beat, Eflin revealed that he’s slated to throw his first bullpen session on Jan. 6 (via the Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich). Eflin added that his goal is to be ready for Opening Day, though he noted that timetable is still very much subject to change. Obviously, his ultimate return point will hinge on how his ramp-up period goes now that he’s been cleared for his first post-op bullpen session.

A healthy Eflin would, at least on paper, give the Orioles a full rotation. He’d slot in alongside Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kremer and newly acquired Shane Baz. That’s a solid group if everyone’s healthy, but that’s a colossal “if.” Eflin pitched just 81 1/3 innings last year before that season-ending back surgery. Bradish pitched only 54 innings between the minors and the big leagues as he returned from Tommy John surgery. Baz tossed a career-high 166 1/3 innings but totaled only 106 1/3 major league frames across the three preceding seasons, due primarily to Tommy John surgery. Depth options like Cade Povich, Chayce McDermott and Brandon Young give the O’s some cover, but none of that trio has established himself in the big leagues just yet.

The Orioles have been connected to a wide swath of notable starters via both trade and free agency. Their pursuit of Miami righty Edward Cabrera has reportedly cooled, but Baltimore has been linked to free agents like Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suarez and Framber Valdez throughout the offseason. Bringing Eflin back at a pretty reasonable rate shouldn’t stand as a major impediment to any subsequent additions. RosterResource projects Baltimore’s payroll for about $147MM as of this writing. That’s $13MM shy of their 2025 mark. It stands to reason that ownership is willing to at the very least replicate that level of spending, if not push the payroll further north.

Virtually no team makes it through a full season in today’s game with only five starting pitchers. The Orioles are even likelier to need extra arms than most. Bradish and Eflin will see their workloads managed to varying extents. Rogers and Baz have notable injury histories. Whether in spring training or throughout the marathon regular season, the Orioles are sure to incur injuries on their staff. They had eight pitchers start six or more games for them in 2025, and that includes free agent Tomoyuki Sugano, who started a team-high 30 games. They’ll likely have at least seven or eight pitchers with 10 or more games started.

Mariners Reluctant To Deal From Major League Roster

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The Mariners are still hoping to make at least one more notable splash between now and Opening Day, but Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times suggests that they’re reluctant to deal anyone from their big league roster to make it happen. Divish writes that the M’s are willing to move top pitching prospect Jurrangelo Cijntje in a package for Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan but are less inclined to trade anyone from the big league roster to get him. He adds that president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto and GM Justin Hollander have both “been adamant” about not wanting to trade an established big league starter as they look to bolster the lineup.

It’s a fairly similar approach to the one taken by Dipoto, Hollander & Co. last offseason. In the winter of 2024-25, the Mariners pursued multiple big-ticket trade items but found many clubs with players available in trade were seeking young big leaguers — not the top prospects that proliferate the top of a stacked Seattle farm system. There are more pure rebuilding clubs this winter, at least on paper, but the Cardinals have prioritized MLB-ready pitching in trades of Sonny Gray (Richard Fitts) and Willson Contreras (Hunter Dobbins). The D-backs reportedly want to add major league pitching (presumably multiple rotation candidates) in any deal for star infielder Ketel Marte.

While Seattle’s system is deep in high-end prospects — the M’s had eight players on Baseball America’s end-of-season top-100 prospect list, though they’ve since traded Harry Ford — the actual depth beyond the big league rotation is relatively thin. Each of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and George Kirby started at least 23 games in 2025. All pitched well — Kirby had a couple brutal outings but was largely strong — but only Castillo did so while avoiding an IL stint. Bryce Miller missed more than half the season due to elbow inflammation. The options beyond that pair are less encouraging.

Emerson Hancock is a former No. 6 overall pick but spent the latter part of the season as a reliever. He’ll head into camp as a starter but has been viewed as a more of a fifth starter candidate than one would expect based on that lofty draft billing. He’ll turn 27 in May and has a career 4.81 ERA with a poor 15.6% strikeout rate in 162 MLB innings. Twenty-four-year-old Logan Evans tossed 81 1/3 innings with a 4.32 ERA as a rookie this past season and briefly drew some top-100 fanfare before his own promotion to the majors. Like Hancock, he struggled to miss bats in the big leagues (16.9 K%, 7.8% swinging-strike rate). He also was hit hard in 11 Triple-A starts last year.

Depth options beyond those seven are thin. Jhonathan Diaz and Blas Castano are both on the 40-man roster but are already in their late 20s with no MLB track record of which to speak. The Mariners have plenty of notable pitching prospects, including Cijntje, Ryan Sloan and 2025 No. 3 overall pick Kade Anderson. Cijntje has all of seven Double-A starts under his belt, though, and could require more development time than most prospects given his status as an extremely uncommon switch-pitcher. Sloan hasn’t pitched above A-ball. Anderson didn’t pitch for a Mariners affiliate after last summer’s draft. Former prospects like Taylor Dollard and Michael Morales went unselected in this year’s Rule 5 Draft despite being eligible. The former has battled injury troubles. The latter was hit fairly hard and notched just a 16% strikeout rate in Double-A this season.

The Mariners could certainly deal from their rotation to improve the lineup and backfill with a lower-cost free agent signing, but it’s understandable if the front office is reluctant to at all jeopardize the team’s depth, given the shaky performances of Miller, Hancock and (to a lesser extent) Evans in 2025. If anything, one could argue that it’d be prudent to add to the current group by signing/acquiring some optionable depth or a swingman/sixth starter to plug into a long relief role to begin the year.

Kazuma Okamoto Travels To U.S. For In-Person Meetings With Teams

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Star Nippon Professional Baseball third baseman Kazuma Okamoto has traveled to the United States for a series of in-person meetings as he enters the final stretch of his 45-day posting window, per a report from Yahoo Japan (hat tip to Yakyu Cosmopolitan). Okamoto and agent Scott Boras are narrowing the field of interested clubs as Okamoto nears his early-January deadline for an agreement.

To this point, each of the Blue Jays, Pirates, Red Sox, Padres and Angels have been prominently linked to Okamoto, who’ll turn 30 next June. The longtime Yomiuri Giants star, who’d been their team captain prior to being posted, is one of the most consistent sluggers in Japan. He’s a career .277/.361/.522 hitter in NPB who has reached 30 home runs in all but two of his 11 seasons. That includes 2025, when injuries limited him to 69 games, and 2024, when he “only” hit 27 homers in 143 games.

However, despite hitting a career-low 15 home runs this past season due to an elbow injury, Okamoto had the best production of his excellent NPB tenure on a rate basis. In 293 trips to the batter’s box, he slashed .327/.416/.598 with a robust 11.3% walk rate that matched his minuscule 11.3% strikeout rate. His 24.3% line-drive rate from this past season was a career-high, and Okamoto’s .271 ISO (slugging percentage minus batting average) was the second-best mark of his career, trailing only his 41-homer season from 2023.

Like countryman Munetaka Murakami, Okamoto is a corner infielder whose glovework concerns big league teams. He’s considered a better defender at third base than Murakami but is still viewed by many clubs as a player who’ll likely spend most (if not all) of his first MLB contract as a first baseman and/or designated hitter. Those defensive concerns contributed significantly to Murakami settling for a two-year deal that fell well short of industry expectations. Defensive concerns surrounding Okamoto aren’t as prominent, nor does he have the alarming swing-and-miss profile that  also contributed to the bearish market for Murakami. However, Okamoto is four years older. Next year being his age-30 season will likely limit the length of his forthcoming contract (though perhaps not to the same extent as Murakami).

Of the teams connected to Okamoto thus far, there’s no clear favorite. The Blue Jays presumably still have Bo Bichette ahead of him on their wishlist — possibly Alex Bregman as well. Boston has also been pursuing both Bregman and Bichette (likely in that order). The Pirates have already acquired one first base option, signing Ryan O’Hearn, and have another in Spencer Horwitz. If they were to make a real push for Okamoto, they’d need to be confident in his ability to play third base. The Angels have a clearer path to playing time at the infield corners (particularly third base). The Padres won’t be displacing Manny Machado at third base, so Okamoto would need to play first base, with Jake Cronenworth manning second base and KBO acquisition Sung Mun Song shifting to the outfield or a utility role.

Of course, it remains perfectly plausible that other, yet-unidentified clubs are in the bidding. The A’s, Mariners, Twins, Rangers, D-backs, Marlins, Mets, Cubs and Nationals all have varying levels of questions at the infield corners. Not all of those teams have significant money to spend this winter — the Rangers, Twins and D-backs are all known to be reducing payroll relative to recent seasons — but any of the bunch could get creative with backloaded contract structures and/or shed payroll by another means to make room if Okamoto is deemed a sufficient upgrade. That’s a largely speculative list, to be clear, but given Okamoto’s track record in NPB, it’d be a surprise if “only” five MLB’s 30 teams had any interest in signing him.

It bears noting that while Okamoto was originally set to be posted on Nov. 19, MLBTR has confirmed that his posting didn’t become official until Nov. 21. That pushes his window to sign a contract with a big league club from the original Jan. 2 to Jan. 4. Whichever club signs him will owe the Giants a posting/release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars thereafter. That fee comes on top of the value of the contract itself. Subsequent earnings (club/player options, performance incentives, award bonuses, etc.) fall under that umbrella as well, once they’re officially reached.

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Final Front Office chat of 2025! Hope the holiday season has been treating everyone well. As always, feel free to ask a question about any of the remaining free agents, possible trade scenarios, team outlooks and whatever other Hot Stove-related topics (or, frankly, other topics!) are on your mind!I'll get going at about 1:30pm CT. Looking forward to i!
  • Let's get underway!

Drake

  • What are your thoughts on the Soderstrom extension? I like it overall and hopeful the A’s can get at least one more of their core locked up too

Steve Adams

  • I'm a big Soderstrom backer, so for me, getting the deal done and buying out at least three free agent years for a sub-100 guarantee is a move well worth making. That's not to say Soderstrom sold himself short. A year ago, he looked like a fringe contributor, and now he's signed the eighth-largest extension of any player ever for his service class. Most of the guys ahead of him (Tatis, Witt, Posey, Trout, Yordan, Bregman) were already superstars when they put pen to paper.It's a good move all around. Soderstrom is definitely a guy I'd look to build around, particularly with how well he took to LF.

jrizz1e

  • biggest player traded between now and start of spring training?

Steve Adams

  • I don't know if Brendan Donovan counts as a "big-name" player among most MLB fans, but he's a big name for front offices and I think it's far likelier than not that he ends up traded.

Ben Cherrington

  • Can either ROH or Horowitz play 3B ? Meintakwicz(sp?) did this on the steel city a few years back.

Steve Adams

  • Doug Mientkiewicz played 33 games (30 starts) at 3B for the Pirates in the late 2000s and, as one would expect for a 34-year-old first baseman making that move for the first time, graded out terribly.
  • The Jays gave Horwitz 250ish innings at 2B, and he didn't fare all that well there. O'Hearn isn't playing 3B.
  • I think you'll just see the two split time at DH and 1B. O'Hearn could see some OF time, depending on injuries elsewhere on the roster.

JL

  • If the Os are serious about a TOR arm, is Eflin taking Kremers place in the rotation?  What is Dean Kremers trade value?

Steve Adams

  • They wouldn't move on from Kremer even if they add an Imai, Valdez, Suarez, etc.Kyle Bradish only pitched 54 innings between the minors and MLB last year. Eflin himself was under 90 IP. Injuries are an inevitability. We don't even firmly know when Eflin will be healthy enough to take the mound in a big league game.Bringing him back at $10MM was a relatively reasonably priced depth move with a decent bit of upside. Any big league team is going to need far more than five starters to get through a season. The O's will probably have 7-8 guys start 10+ games next season. The rotation will sort itself out.

Foley

  • As good as Logan Gilbert is the Mariners should consider trading him, realistically they won’t have the money to sign him and with two years of control they should get a haul that could help now and later

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Mets Sign Luke Weaver

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December 22nd: The Mets announced Weaver’s signing. They opened a 40-man roster spot by trading McNeil to the Athletics earlier today.

December 17th: The Mets are working to finalize a two-year, $22MM deal with free agent reliever Luke Weaver, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The two sides have an agreement in place, per Will Sammon of The Athletic. The deal is pending a physical. Weaver is repped by Excel Sports Management. The Mets have a full 40-man roster and will need a corresponding move to make this deal official.

The two-year, $22MM terms are the exact same ones as the just-agreed-upon deal between the division-rival Phillies and righty Brad Keller. Like Keller, Weaver is a starter-turned-reliever who’s found notable success pitching near the back of a big-market contender’s bullpen.

Weaver, 32, has spent the past two-plus seasons as a key late-inning arm over in the Bronx. A rocky finish to the 2025 season inflated his earned run average to 3.62 but since signing with the Yankees late in the 2023 campaign, Weaver touts a 3.22 ERA, 29.4% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate in 162 innings of relief. He saved a dozen games and picked up 43 holds along the way, blowing only four other opportunities in that time. It’s presumably just coincidence, but the Mets now employ Weaver, Devin Williams and Clay Holmes (who’s moved into the rotation) — the Yankees’ three highest-leverage arms for the bulk of the 2024-25 seasons.

A first-round pick by the Cardinals back in 2014, Weaver debuted in the St. Louis rotation in 2016 and showed some promise as a starter there in 2017-18. The Cards flipped him to the D-backs as part of the return for star first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, and Weaver looked to be on the cusp of a full-fledged breakout in 2019. He started a dozen games and pitched to a 2.94 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates before a forearm strain ended his season. Subsequent shoulder and elbow injuries doomed the rest of Weaver’s D-backs tenure; from 2020-23, he pitched to a 5.95 ERA while bouncing between five clubs.

The last of those five stops, however, was in the Bronx. He made enough of an impression in three late-season starts to sign a $2.5MM big league deal in the offseason — one that contained a 2025 club option. It proved to be a raucous bargain for the team and a career-saving deal for Weaver, who rebuilt himself into a coveted bullpen arm and now lands the largest payday of his 12-year professional career. Despite that strong run in the Bronx and some reported interest in a reunion, the Yanks were not in the bidding for Weaver, per Sherman.

Back in September, Weaver expressed some openness to returning to a starting role if a team gave him a chance, but that doesn’t seem to be at play here. Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes that Weaver will slot into the bullpen. It’s unclear if that’s sourced reporting or deduction but there hasn’t been anything to suggest the Mets plan on giving Weaver a rotation gig. The price of Weaver’s deal is right around expectations. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted him for an $18MM guarantee over two years, an estimate that he has marginally beaten.

New York had a middling bullpen in 2025. Their collective 3.93 ERA was 15th in the majors. It was even worse later in the year as the season slipped away from the club. Over August and September, the relief corps had a collective 4.18 ERA. At season’s end, Edwin Díaz, Tyler Rogers, Gregory Soto, Ryan Helsley and others hit free agency, further thinning out the group. Those four have already signed with other clubs.

The Mets have signed Williams and now Weaver to fortify the group. They will slot in among incumbent arms like A.J. Minter, Brooks Raley, Huascar Brazobán and others. Presumably, there are still more bullpen moves to come.

RosterResource, assuming an equal distribution of Weaver’s guarantee over two years, now projects the Mets for a $305MM payroll and a $307MM competitive balance tax figure. Since they have paid the tax in at least three straight years, they face compounding taxation rates. The top tier of the tax in 2026 is $304MM, so this deal pushes them over. That means they will pay a 110% tax on any further spending, though that’s nothing new for them.

There are still several items on the to-do list for the Mets this winter. Sammon wrote earlier this week that the club is still looking for a front-of-rotation starter and an offensive upgrade. That could come via free agency but there have also been plenty of trade rumors surrounding Jeff McNeil, Kodai Senga, David Peterson, Mark Vientos, Ronny Mauricio and Luisangel Acuña. For now, Weaver upgrades the bullpen at market price.

Photo courtesy of Jeff Curry, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Trade Rumors Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Steve Adams

  • Good morning, and happy holidays to all! I'll get going a bit earlier than usual today, 11am CT. Feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time, as always.
  • Good morning! Let's get underway

Guarded Indian

  • Is Fairchild Cleveland's answer for the RH hitting OF help or do they actually spend on someone else?  If Clase and Ortiz come off the payroll could they afford Bader?  I don't want Hays (injured) or Andujar (not great one defense).

Steve Adams

  • He's just a minor league depth add -- not any kind of answer. Fairchild is only a slightly above-average hitter in his career versus LHP.Hays, Andujar, Randal Grichuk and Rob Refsnyder are all out there as RHH outfielders to join the outfield mix there. I think any of the bunch make sense as a reasonable addition. None will cost too much

Ross the Boss

  • What could I get back for Berrios if I toss in $36mil in cash in a trade?  He had a down year, but a innings eating #4/5 at $10mil/season is still a very valuable commodity.  Ponce is now my #5, it would be essentially no more money for ownership, and I could recoup something of value for Jose.

Steve Adams

  • It might be reasonable to think Berrios is worth $10MM annually, but I doubt he'd get that over three years in free agency this winter. Most teams would be looking at him for one or two years. I don't think paying him down to 3/30 is enough to get anything of value.Three of four seasons with a sub-20 K%. Walk rate jumped to 8% this past year (still solid but much higher than his 6.3% over the four preceding seasons). Career-low four-seam and sinker velos. Tons of home runs. Poor finish from July onward.I think you're overvaluing Berrios.

Anthony

  • which under the radar FA Pitcher is the best buy low high rewards candidate?  1year / $5 - 10million.

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Cardinals, Jared Shuster Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cardinals have agreed to a minor league contract with lefty Jared Shuster, reports MLB Network’s Jon Morosi. He’ll invited to major league camp next spring.

A first-round pick by Atlanta back in 2020, Shuster has pitched in parts of three big league seasons between the Braves and White Sox, combining to toss 141 2/3 frames. He’s been tagged for an ugly 5.27 ERA in that time. The 6’3″ southpaw has done a nice job avoiding hard contact to this point in his career (87.7 mph average exit velocity, 34% hard-hit rate) but doesn’t miss bats or limit walks at even average levels. He’s fanned only 15.5% of his opponents and issued walks at a 10.1% clip in the bigs.

Shuster, 27, sits 90-92 mph with his four-seamer as a starter and couples the pitch with a slider and changeup, both checking into the low 80s with their respective average velocities. He was averaging 92.6 mph on his fastball as a full-time reliever last year, but his results both in the majors and upper minors were rough.

The Cardinals have plenty of opportunity on the pitching staff, be it in the bullpen or the rotation. For now, the rotation figures to include Matthew Liberatore, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May and Kyle Leahy. Andre Pallante will be a candidate to make starts but has also pitched in relief.

Trade acquisitions Richard Fitts (Sonny Gray) and Hunter Dobbins (Willson Contreras) join prospects Quinn Mathews, Brycen Mautz and Tink Hence as possible 2026 rotation candidates. In the bullpen, veteran JoJo Romero and 30-year-old rookie Nick Raquet (who tossed his first two MLB frames in 2025) are the only options on the 40-man roster — and Romero is very likely to be traded prior to spring training.

Yankees Agree To Minor League Deals With Ali Sanchez, Zack Short

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The Yankees have agreed to minor league contracts with catcher Ali Sánchez and infielder Zack Short, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Both former big leaguers will presumably be in major league camp next spring.

Sanchez is a right-handed-hitting catcher with experience in parts of four major league seasons. He’ll turn 29 in a month. He split the 2025 campaign between the Mets, Blue Jays and Red Sox organizations, logging some major league time with the latter two. Sanchez has only 133 big league plate appearances under his belt and is a .183/.220/.233 hitter in that time. He’s a solid defender who has played in parts of five Triple-A seasons, including a 2025 campaign in which he slashed .274/.336/.411 (102 wRC+) in 57 games between the top affiliates for the Mets and Jays.

Short, 30, is another glove-first player who’s seen limited action in the majors. The former 17th-round pick has suited up for the Astros, Tigers, Mets, Red Sox and Braves in the majors, hitting a combined .172/.271/.296 with 15 home runs and 10 steals in 594 turns at the plate. He strikes out too often but also draws plenty of walks.

Short, fittingly, has spent the bulk of his time in the majors playing shortstop, but he’s also spent significant time at third base and second base (in addition to one-off cameos in center field and right field). He’s drawn better marks for his defense at second base than the other spots but still gives the Yankees some versatility to stash in Triple-A, where he’s a .216/.353/.380 hitter in parts of six seasons.

New York currently has Austin Wells and J.C. Escarra ticketed for big league catching work. Sanchez will provide some depth beyond that duo. Short is behind each of Anthony Volpe, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Ryan McMahon, Oswaldo Cabrera and Amed Rosario on the infield depth chart. Out-of-options infielders Jorbit Vivas and Braden Shewmake are both on the 40-man roster as well.

The Opener: Murakami, Red Sox, Free Agency

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Here are three things for MLBTR readers to keep an eye on as the week gets underway…

1. Murakami press conference:

The White Sox will host a press conference to introduce slugger Munetaka Murakami this morning at 11am CT. The two sides didn’t look to be a fit early in the offseason, when industry expectations were that the 25-year-old Murakami would command a long-term deal and when White Sox GM Chris Getz openly spoke about reluctance to commit to free agents beyond the upcoming season. However, when Murakami’s market didn’t develop as hoped, the South Siders opportunistically pounced and landed him on a two-year contract. Murakami has 80-grade raw power but concerns scouts with his struggles against velocity, penchant for whiffing and limited defensive flexibility. Even with those red flags, he could add 30 or 40 home runs to Chicago’s lineup if all goes well. Sox brass will be on hand to discuss where Murakami fits into the puzzle and what’s next on the checklist.

2. Where do the Red Sox go from here?

The Red Sox have operated exclusively on the trade market thus far, adding Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras (in separate trades) from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They’re the only team in the American League that hasn’t signed a free agent to a major league contract this winter and one of just two teams in either league fitting that description (joining the Rockies as the other).

Yesterday’s acquisition of Contreras seemingly sets the Sox at first base and pushes young Triston Casas down the depth chart. Casas, recovering from knee surgery performed last May, could mix in at designated hitter once he’s ready to go, but the Sox also have Masataka Yoshida to consider in that spot. They’d love to shed the remaining two years and $36MM on Yoshida’s contract, but trimming even a decent portion of that sum off the books would be a tall order. Casas has a minor league option remaining, so it’s possible he could head to Triple-A, but there figure to be other clubs looking to buy low.

The Red Sox are still receiving interest in outfielders Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. They still have plenty of minor league rotation depth to peddle. Casas now feels more expendable. Garrett Crochet and Roman Anthony are the only major salaries on the long-term books. The Sox seem well positioned either for a large free-agent expenditure or another major trade, with third base and the rotation standing as natural areas of focus. Where will they go from here?

3. Last-minute holiday shopping:

The holidays are upon us, and while there’s typically a major slowdown in terms of hot stove activity over the final week of December, there’s also usually a rush to complete some last-minute deals prior to that quiet period. Last year, we saw each of Walker Buehler, Joc Pederson, Sean Manaea and Andrew McCutchen in the final days before Christmas (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker). The year prior, it was Kevin Kiermaier, Mitch Garver, Yuki Matsui and Martin Maldonado (Contract Tracker link). In 2022, names like Michael Conforto, Craig Kimbrel, Taylor Rogers, Tucker Barnhart, Drew Smyly and Wil Myers all signed. There’s no telling exactly who’ll come off the board this week, but expect a handful of free agent deals to wrap up before front offices and players alike pump the brakes in the final days of the year.

Rays Trade Shane Baz To Orioles

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The Orioles bolstered their rotation with an intradivision swap netting them right-hander Shane Baz from Tampa Bay, the teams announced Friday. In return, the Rays receive outfielder Slater de Brun, catcher Caden Bodine, right-hander Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn and a Competitive Balance Round A draft pick. Baltimore designated lefty Josh Walker for assignment to open a roster spot for Baz (more on that move here).

Baz, 26, will step right into Baltimore’s rotation. As is the case with the recently traded Grayson Rodriguez, Baz once ranked as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects. In fact, a look back at Baseball America’s top 100 prospects of the 2022 season shows Rodriguez at No. 6 and Baz right behind him at No. 8.

Baltimore, of course, traded Rodriguez and his remaining four years of club control to the Angels in exchange for the final year of club control over slugging corner outfielder Taylor Ward. Rodriguez hasn’t pitched in a big league game in nearly 18 months due to injuries. Baz has his own lengthy injury history but pitched a career-high 166 1/3 innings across 31 starts for Tampa Bay last season. The two are different pitchers with different skill sets and different levels of risk, and both are projects (to varying extents). But it’s nevertheless notable that the O’s shipped out one former top-10 pitching prospect and just weeks later effectively replaced him by acquiring another.

In 2025, Baz worked to a 4.87 earned run average but drew more favorable reviews from metrics like SIERA (3.95) and FIP (4.37). He fanned 24.8% of his opponents, issued walks at a 9% clip and kept the ball on the ground at a better-than-average 46.7% rate. Home runs were the biggest problem for Baz, who saw 15.6% of the fly-balls against him clear the outfield fence and allowed an overall average of 1.41 homers per nine innings pitched.

Specifically, Baz was homer-prone in right-on-right matchups. The Rays played last year’s “home” games at Tampa’s Steinbrenner Field (the Class-A affiliate for the Yankees) while Tropicana Field was undergoing repairs after significant damage at the hands of Hurricane Milton. Steinbrenner Field played as the second most homer-friendly venue in MLB for right-handed hitters, per Statcast’s Park Factors; Baltimore’s Camden Yards was still homer-friendly to righties, but not nearly to the same extent.

If Baz can rein in the home run woes and continue to stay healthy, he has the makings of a mid-rotation starter. Those aren’t trivial caveats, however — particularly the health one. Baz had arthroscopic elbow surgery prior to the 2022 season, returned to pitch 27 innings that summer, and then went back on the injured list due to an elbow sprain. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of the 2023 season and the first half of the 2024 campaign.

Injury concerns notwithstanding, Baz sat 97 mph with his four-seamer this past season and got strong results on a new knuckle curveball that he hadn’t previously used in the majors. Opponents hit just .214 and slugged .321 against that newly implemented breaking pitch. Baz also works off a changeup and a cutter (getting better results with the former in 2025), rounding out a four-pitch arsenal.

The Orioles will control Baz for another three seasons. He’s a Super Two player who’s eligible for the second of his four arbitration raises this offseason. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projected an eminently affordable $3.1MM salary for the right-hander. That bumps the Orioles’ projected payroll, per RosterResource, north of $140MM and gives them more than $178MM of luxury tax considerations. They’re still nearly $70MM from the first tax threshold.

Baltimore entered the offseason in clear need of rotation help. Baz adds a capable arm with some yet-untapped upside but isn’t the clear playoff-caliber starter Baltimore has sought (though he has the potential to become that). He joins Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer as rotation locks. Tyler Wells, Cade Povich, Brandon Young and Chayce McDermott are all candidates for the fifth spot who are already on the 40-man roster.

That’s solid depth, but the Orioles’ rotation still feels like it’s one veteran arm short. The team’s aggressive signing of Pete Alonso (plus acquisitions of Ward and Baz) are clear signals of a win-now mindset as they look to put an ugly 2025 season behind them. Adding a proven starter would go a long way toward realizing that goal. Baltimore has been linked to prominent free agents like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez and Tatsuya Imai — all of whom remain unsigned. Even after adding Alonso, Baz, Ward and free agent closer Ryan Helsley, their projected payroll is more than $20MM shy of last season’s Opening Day mark. There should be room to make another splash on the starting pitching front.

In exchange for the final three years of control over Baz, Tampa Bay is getting several of the Orioles’ top-30 prospects and a well-placed pick in the 2026 draft. Baseball America recently re-ranked the top-10 prospects in Baltimore’s system, placing Forret eighth among the bunch and calling him a potential No. 3 or 4 starter. The 21-year-old righty has strong command and a deep repertoire of six pitches, highlighted by a pair of above-average to plus breaking balls (curveball, sweeper). He split the 2025 season between High-A and Double-A, logging a combined 74 innings with a pristine 1.58 ERA, a huge 32.3% strikeout rate and a tidy 7.4% walk rate.

Forret is the only of the four prospects ranked inside BA’s top 10, though both de Brun and Bodine were top-10 names in the system on MLB.com’s midseason re-ranking of the bunch. The 18-year-old de Brun, in particular, is a big addition. He was selected with the No. 37 overall draft pick — coincidentally enough, a Competitive Balance Round A selection — just this past summer. De Brun didn’t play professionally following that lofty selection. He’ll head to the low minors in Tampa Bay’s system and make his professional debut there in 2026.

Baseball America called de Brun the top high school outfielder in last year’s draft class, lauding his plus-plus speed, above-average hit tool, strong throwing arm and good instincts in center field. He’s listed at just 5’9″ and has below-average power. He’ll be a yearslong development project, but if all goes well, the end result could be a table-setting center fielder with plus base-stealing ability and plus defense.

Bodine, 22, was selected seven picks ahead of de Brun in last summer’s draft. The former Coastal Carolina University standout got his feet wet with 11 games for the Orioles’ Class-A affiliate following the draft and hit well in that small sample. He’s a 5’10”, 200-pound, switch-hitting catcher who draws praise for a plus hit tool and good defensive skills. Like de Brun, he has below-average power. And, as one might expect for a catcher, his speed gets below-average ratings as well. Bodine hit .337/.440/.528 with nearly twice as many walks as strikeouts during his three NCAA seasons and began his pro career with a 14-for-43 showing (13 singles, one double), five walks and eight strikeouts in 49 A-ball appearances.

As with both Bodine and de Brun, Overn is another recent, lofty draft pick for the Orioles. Selected out of USC with the No. 97 pick in 2024, he’s a blistering runner with good defensive skills but fringe power and strikeout concerns. Overn hit .249/.355/.399 between Baltimore’s Class-A and Double-A affiliates in 2025, connecting on 13 homers, 13 doubles and four triples. He also went 64-for-72 in stolen base attempts over just 114 minor league games. MLB.com ranked him 30th in Baltimore’s system following this year’s trade deadline, tabbing him as a potential fourth outfielder or, in a best-case scenario, a speed- and defense-oriented regular. He’ll likely need to improve his hit tool and/or add some more power to get to that ceiling.

The Rays also add a notable draft pick. Baltimore won the fifth pick in Competitive Balance Round A during this month’s lottery. The exact draft order isn’t set yet — draft compensation surrounding free agents who rejected qualifying offers could still impact it — but in 2025 that was the No. 37 overall selection. Coincidentally, that’s the very pick that the Rays traded to the O’s in exchange for reliever Bryan Baker. Baltimore used that pick to select de Brun. It now trades de Brun back to Tampa Bay alongside what could very well end up being the No. 37 pick in the subsequent season’s draft. Last year’s No. 37 pick had a $2.63MM slot value, though de Brun signed for an over-slot $4MM. The Rays are likely adding around $2.7MM in pool space to next year’s draft budget with the acquisition of this pick.

Subtracting Baz depletes a Rays rotation that already looked like it might be one arm short. At the moment, Tampa Bay’s rotation figures to include Drew Rasmussen, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan and Steven Matz. Joe Boyle, Joe Rock, Ian Seymour and top prospect Brody Hopkins are among the internal candidates to step into the five spot. The first three are already on the 40-man roster.

However, the Rays will also surely have McClanahan on an innings limit after he missed the past two full seasons due to UCL and nerve surgeries. They’ll need to add some more innings to this group one way or another. By shipping out Baz and second baseman Brandon Lowe in separate trades this morning, the Rays trimmed more than $14MM off their projected payroll for the upcoming season. Per RosterResource, they now sit at about $78MM. That’s right in line with last year’s Opening Day mark.

Coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs and played their home games in a minor league park, the Rays may not be anxious to add a starter making $10MM+ per year. But Tampa Bay ran an Opening Day payroll of $98MM as recently as 2024 and is now under new ownership. It stands to reason that there could be some room to add a modestly priced starter in free agency. Alternatively, the trades of Baz and Lowe have only revitalized a perennially solid Tampa Bay farm system. The Rays could turn to the trade market to bring in some more help in the weeks ahead.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported that the Orioles were nearing a deal to acquire Baz. ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement and the Rays’ return.

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