Author: Steve Adams

We’re more than one third of the way through the 2026 MLB season, and what looked like a weak free agent class heading into the year only looks thinner following injuries and poor performances from many of the top names. It’s not hyperbole to call this the thinnest crop of free agents in recent memory. That doesn’t mean there aren’t solid contributors to be signed, but there’s only one true marquee free agent — he recently had elbow surgery — and there are charitably only four or five players who might command a nine-figure deal. (Realistically, it’s more like two or three.)

Of course, there’s plenty of time for things to turn around. As we’ll get into in the full breakdowns of our top 10, several players on this list stumbled through poor March/April showings before finding their form in May. If that continues through season’s end, then a poor April performance will be a mere footnote that teams pay little heed. That cuts both ways, however. An impending free agent who’s out to a strong start right now could suffer an injury of note or tank his stock with a poor four-month finish to the season. Power rankings are subjective and inherently fluid — perhaps more so than ever with this class.

As a reminder, our rankings at MLBTR are based on earning power. We’re not ranking these free agents based on potential impact in 2027 or 2028. Sonny Gray is having a nice season, but he’ll be 37 in November and probably isn’t going to command more than two years in free agency, for instance. Despite the fact that he’d be a big boost to a team’s 2027 chances, he’s not likely to land on any installments of this year’s power rankings (unless the class really tanks as a whole over the next few months).

With that preamble stated, let’s dive into the rankings…

1. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

Skubal’s recent elbow surgery rules out a third consecutive American League Cy Young Award, but it doesn’t do much to alter his broader free agent stock. He’s on a fast track to recovery after undergoing a cutting-edge “NanoNeedle” arthroscopic procedure to remove a loose body from his pitching elbow. Skubal had surgery one month ago, was throwing two weeks later, and threw a five-inning rehab start yesterday. A return later this week isn’t out of the question.

In seven starts pre-surgery, Skubal looked as good as ever. He pitched 43 1/3 innings with a 2.70 earned run average, a 27.1% strikeout rate and a 3.6% walk rate that would register as a career-best mark over a full season. The left-hander’s velocity was down a mile per hour relative to 2025 but right in line with his overall career mark. His 13.7% swinging-strike rate is great but not up to his previously elite 16-17% levels. Then again, Skubal clearly wasn’t pitching at 100%. Posting the marks he did with an elbow issue that eventually required an elbow scope is impressive.

If Skubal comes back strong, teams aren’t going to pay much mind to the elbow procedure. He’s been the best pitcher in baseball since 2024 and won’t turn 30 years old until November. The expectation entering the season was that Skubal would reach free agency and set a new record for the largest contract ever signed by a pitcher, eclipsing Yoshinbou Yamamoto’s $325MM guarantee. That’s still firmly in play, barring diminished performance during his return.

And, if the Tigers can’t pull themselves back into contention and ultimately have to trade Skubal, he’ll come with the added benefit of being ineligible for a qualifying offer, meaning he won’t cost his new team a draft pick. Even if the Tigers hold Skubal, however, his status is so high that no team is going to balk at the draft cost to sign him. Pitchers like this just don’t come around often, and when they hit the open market, a bidding war should be expected.

2. Freddy Peralta, RHP, Mets

Peralta isn’t having his best season, but he’s having a very good one and getting better as it progresses. Peralta, who turned 30 last week, celebrated his birthday a day early with six innings of one-run ball in a win over the red-hot Mariners. He’s posted a 2.98 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 10.2% walk rate and 43.1% grounder rate in 45 1/3 innings across his past eight trips to the mound. Overall, Peralta touts a 3.38 ERA, 23.9% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 42% ground-ball rate in 13 starts — all while averaging about 5 2/3 innings per appearance.

One of baseball’s most consistent starters since establishing himself, Peralta pitched to a 3.30 ERA from 2021-25. His ERA each season was between 2.70 and 3.86. His strikeout rate sat between 27.1% and 33.6% each season along the way, and his walk rate fell between 7.9% and 9.7%. Peralta hasn’t had a hiccup or a true down season. He’s a playoff-caliber starter year-in, year-out. Peralta turns 31 next June, which is still young enough to command five, six or even seven years in free agency.

The quality of his finish will play a significant role in which of those lengths ultimately comes to fruition, but Peralta is a clear candidate for a contract north of $100MM. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows Max Fried (eight years, $218MM), Blake Snell (five years, $182MM), Aaron Nola (seven years, $172MM), Jacob deGrom (five years, $185MM) and Kevin Gausman (five years, $110MM) as the starting pitchers who’ve reached free agency ahead of their age-31 season (if not older) over the past half decade and commanded nine-figure deals. Peralta isn’t likely to reach the very top end of that spectrum, but he has a better track record than Gausman did when he signed his deal five years ago.

Like Skubal, Peralta is pitching for a losing club that entered the season firmly expecting to contend. If the Mets bite the bullet and decide to sell some veteran pieces this summer, Peralta will be among the most sought-after names on the trade market. A trade would render him ineligible for a qualifying offer, which would only enhance his appeal on the open market.

3. Jazz Chisholm Jr., 2B, Yankees

Chisholm had a 30-30 season in 2025 and went 24 homers/40 steals in 2024. Speed/power packages of this caliber are rare and often locked up on early-career extensions. That’s not the case with Chisholm, who’ll reach free agency at 28 and play all of his first free-agent year at 29. Entering the season, it seemed like a compelling package with a $100MM+ deal on the horizon.

A couple months into the ’26 campaign, and things aren’t so rosy. Chisholm had one of the worst months to begin the year. Through April 30, he was hitting .202/.281/.330 — 26% worse than league average, by measure of wRC+. He looked more like a candidate to sign an opt-out-laden bounceback deal than a long-term contract.

Chisholm turned a corner in early May, and since the calendar flipped beyond April, he’s looked like his typical self. Dating back to May 1, he carries a .265/.331/.460 batting line with five homers and seven steals. That’s a 120 wRC+ (20% better than league-average production), which is right in line with last year’s season long 126 mark. Chisholm has walked at a 9.4% rate and fanned at a 29.1% clip since May — again, not far off last year’s season-long numbers.

If Jazz is back to being Jazz, his poor April probably won’t matter much. He’s a clear candidate to receive and reject a qualifying offer in that scenario, and the associated draft pick cost might cause some teams to shy away. The market generally doesn’t pay second basemen, but Chisholm would likely be valued based on his overall offensive prowess rather than his defensive home. That he can at least claim the ability to play on the left side of the infield or in the outfield helps his cause, even if he’s clearly best-suited for work at second base.

In most seasons, Chisholm would be closer to the No. 8-10 spots on this list, but it’s a grim class and he offers a blend of youth, offensive upside and track record not present elsewhere in this class. A big finish will make him the consensus top position player in the class. A poor or only slightly above-average showing over the next four months will leave him in a difficult spot — likely weighing disappointing long-term offers versus higher-risk, short-term deals with opt-outs.

4. Michael King, RHP, Padres

King isn’t technically a free agent yet, but he can opt out of the final two seasons of his three-year, $75MM contract at season’s end. Based on the way things have been going thus far, that seems likely to happen. The right-hander’s 2025 season was derailed by injury, but King has averaged just over 5 2/3 innings over his first 13 starts, turning in a 3.41 ERA over 74 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate is down from the 27.7% mark he logged in a career-best 2024 season but is still better than average. His 9.8% walk rate is a career-worst mark — the first time he’s been worse than average in that regard — but he’s kept 47% of batted balls against him on the ground (about five percentage points north of average).

King’s 94.1 mph average fastball is up slightly from the past couple seasons. His 10.9% swinging-strike rate is close to average, sitting between last year’s 10.4% mark and 2024’s 12% mark. He doesn’t have age on his side, as he’ll turn 32 next May, but King rejected a qualifying offer from the Padres last November and is accordingly ineligible to receive a second one.

King’s age probably caps him at a four-year deal. Blake Snell and Jacob deGrom are the only two pitchers in the past decade to score a contract of five or more years on the open market ahead of their age-32 season. It’s possible King is again limited to three-year offers with a hearty annual value, but he pulled a guaranteed $75MM on the back of an injury-ruined season, so him topping that guarantee after a healthy season — even when he’s a year older — seems plenty possible.

5. Randy Arozarena, OF, Mariners

Arozarena has been quite consistent since becoming established as a big leaguer. From 2021 to 2025, he hit between 20 and 27 home runs each year and stole 20 to 32 bases. His wRC+ finished in the 114 to 127 range. FanGraphs credited him with two to four wins above replacement in each campaign. In short, he has been a solidly above-average corner outfielder with some power and speed.

His 2026 season has largely been more of the same. He only has six home runs, which is a bit shy of his usual pace. However, some batted ball luck has actually made his overall offense a bit better than usual. He has a .285/.376/.442 line and 138 wRC+ on the year. That is due in part to his .358 batting average on balls in play but some regression in that category would nudge him into his usual range.

He already has 18 stolen bases in less than half the season, putting him on pace to set a new career high. His defensive numbers are trending up slightly. Outs Above Average has always disliked him in the field, giving him minus-6 grade in 2024 and 2025. This year’s minus-1 isn’t great but is a relative improvement. Defensive Runs Saved has wobbled for Arozarena but had him below average in 2024 and 2025. This year, he’s at +3 DRS so far. Put it all together and Arozarena is at 2.2 fWAR already, on pace to beat his previous best of 3.9.

Though he is generally having a good season, Arozarena’s earning power is capped by a few factors. He was a late bloomer and is getting to free agency at a relatively older age, as he’ll turn 32 before next year. As a corner-only guy, that’s a profile that doesn’t lead to major long-term deals.

A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that the biggest deal for an outfielder that age or older in recent years was the four-year, $78MM deal the Mets gave to Starling Marte, who was still a viable center fielder. Next on the list is the three-year, $66MM pact the Dodgers gave to Teoscar Hernández, a deal which contained notable deferrals. Mitch Haniger, Jorge Soler and Jurickson Profar signed three-year deals in the $42-43.5MM range. Those deals give a vague approximation of what Arozarena could reasonably expect, though he’s probably closer to Hernández territory than the latter trio.

6. Brandon Lowe, 2B, Pirates

Like Arozarena, Lowe is a 32-year-old who plays a position that the market doesn’t tend to value all that highly. As MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows, the only second basemen to land deals of three or more years in free agency over the past half decade have been foreign players coming over from the Korea Baseball Organization. Hyeseong Kim and Sung-Mun Song, however, signed for modest annual values that reflected the uncertainty surrounding whether their offensive output could be sustained against major league pitching.

Marcus Semien is the last pure second baseman to land a notable multi-year free agent deal, but his seven-year, $175MM isn’t a clean comp for Lowe, either. Semien was 31 in the first year of that contract and was coming off a Gold Glove-winning season at second base after years spent as a shortstop. Most clubs viewed him as a viable option at shortstop. The Rangers only kept him at second base because they also signed Corey Seager that winter. Semien was also coming off a 6-WAR season. Good as Lowe has been, he’s not going to get to that point.

Be that as it may, there’s reason to believe Lowe can buck the trend of 32-year-olds and second basemen being shrugged off by the market. He has a long track record of hitting for power and is doing so at a level we haven’t seen from him since 2020-21. Lowe has already belted 15 homers in 60 games. His .270 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is his best since a 39-homer campaign back in 2021. His 10.7% walk rate is a nice rebound after a couple down seasons in that regard, and his 25.2% strikeout rate — while still higher than league average — is the second-best mark of his career. Most encouraging is that Lowe’s 82% in-zone contact rate is the second-best mark of his career as well.

Lowe can credibly claim that he’s the second-best offensive second baseman in the sport behind Brice Turang this year. His oft-maligned defense has improved, too. Whether it’s sustainable or a one-year blip is an open question that scouts will have to weigh heavily, but he’s been credited with positive marks from both Defensive Runs Saved (2) and Outs Above Average (5) in 2026 after drawing cumulatively negative grades the over the five preceding seasons (including career-worst marks of -14 DRS and -14 OAA in 2025).

Lowe has some experience in left field and at first base, even if he’s spent the vast majority of his playing time at second base. He also has more than enough bat to be an above-average designated hitter. Even though second basemen are rarely paid well, we saw Jorge Polanco get a two-year, $40MM deal for his age-32 and age-33 seasons last year. Lowe’s performance has been steadier over the years, and his production right now is outpacing what Polanco did last year in a rebound season after an awful 2024 campaign.

There are probably some teams that would prefer Lowe’s left-handed bat at second base to Arozarena’s right-handed bat in left field. A deal north of $60MM seems plausible if he can continue his blistering start to the season.

7. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers

For a former first overall pick, it is perhaps underwhelming to some that Mize hasn’t turned into an ace. But expectations aside, Mize has developed into a valuable mid-rotation starter. In 2021, he took the ball 30 times for the Tigers and posted a 3.71 earned run average. His 19.3% strikeout rate was low but he only walked 6.7% of batters faced and induced grounders on 48.1% of balls in play.

Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his 2022 and 2023 seasons. In 2024 and 2025, he was back to his previous form. He posted a 4.12 ERA over 251 1/3 innings across those two campaigns. His 20.1% strikeout rate was again below par but with an excellent 6% walk rate and solid 43.2% ground ball rate. He made two postseason starts last year with a flat ERA of 3.00 in those.

Here in 2026, he has twice gone on the injured list due to an adductor issue, but the results have been encouraging around that. In his nine starts, Mize has thrown 47 2/3 innings with a 2.27 ERA. His 35.2% ground ball rate is a drop for him but he has increased his strikeout rate to 26.5% while keeping his walks at a 6.5% level. He has thrown his slider way more at the expense of his slurve. He went to the slider 16.3% of the time last year but that’s up to 25.1%, while his slurve usage has gone from 13.3% to 4.7%.

A reliable mid-rotation starter going into his age-30 season can land a healthy contract, even for pitchers who haven’t shown Cy Young upside. In recent years, Eduardo Rodriguez, Taijuan Walker, Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon and Luis Severino have signed deals of three or four years in the range of $67-80MM while in their early 30s. Just below that are guys like Jon Gray, Nick Pivetta and Steven Matz (Cardinals deal), who signed in the $44-56MM range.

8. Luis Arraez, 2B, Giants

Luis Arraez the hitter is well known. He doesn’t have a ton of power and doesn’t draw many walks but is the game’s preeminent contact hitter. In an age where the league average strikeout rate is around 22%, Arraez is usually somewhere about a third of that. He won three straight batting titles from 2022 to 2024.

He had a bit of a dip in 2025. As he battled a thumb injury, his batting average dipped to .292, a strong number for most but low for him. Since that’s his main asset, that reduced his overall output. He hit just eight home runs on the year and only walked in 5% of his plate appearances. That left him with a .292/.327/.392 line and 104 wRC+, barely above league average. Since his defense has generally been poor in his big league career, he went into free agency last winter without a ton of juice. He settled for a one-year, $12MM deal with the Giants.

Here in 2026, the offense is back. He has only two homers and just a 5.4% walk rate but the batting average is up to .323, much more normal for him. His .323/.359/.431 line leads to a 120 wRC+, a nice improvement relative to last year.

What might be more interesting is the improvement he has shown in the field. The Giants plugged Arraez in as their regular second baseman, which seemed like a recipe for disaster. He came into this year with almost 3,000 innings at the keystone and had graded at minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved and a shocking minus-36 Outs Above Average in that time. The Twins started giving him more time at first base back in 2022. The Marlins tried moving him back to second in 2023 but the Padres acquired him in 2024 and mostly had him back at first. He only had 82 innings at second in 2025.

The idea of Arraez suddenly becoming a strong second baseman in his age-29 season wasn’t on most people’s radar but that seems to be happening. In over 500 innings this year, DRS has put Arraez at league average. OAA, which was so remarkably down on Arraez, has him at +9 this year. JJ Wetherholt is the only second baseman ahead of Arraez on the OAA leaderboard.

Defensive metrics can be wonky in small samples, so some of this is to be taken with a grain of salt. Nico Hoerner has +8 OAA on the year, for instance, and most people probably don’t think Arraez is suddenly better than Hoerner on the dirt.

Still, the fact that Arraez seems playable at the keystone should open up his market. Second basemen don’t usually get big paychecks in free agency but being passable there is better than being viable at first base only. Jeimer Candelario and Jorge Polanco recently signed deals in the $40-45MM range as solid bats with questionable defense but the capacity to at least play a couple of infield positions.

9. Adrian Morejon, LHP, Padres

The only reliever in the top 10, Morejon has some of the best stuff of any southpaw in the game. His 99.4 mph average sinker speed is tops among left-handed fastballs and eighth overall. He has a plus slider and an excellent changeup, which he uses almost exclusively against righty hitters.

Morejon is among the top 10 relievers in swinging strikes and has the third-highest opponents chase rate (minimum 20 innings). He’s top five in ground-ball percentage at 61.6% while posting plus strikeout (28.2%) and walk (5.3%) marks. His 2.34 FIP and 2.08 SIERA are among the best in MLB.

It’s all the ingredients of a wipeout back-end arm. Morejon was just that between 2024-25, combining for a 2.42 ERA while striking out more than a quarter of opponents in 137 1/3 innings. His ERA has spiked to an ugly 4.60 mark this season, though that comes mostly from a handful of bad early-season outings. Morejon allowed runs in four of his first six appearances but carries a 2.92 ERA dating back to April 14. He has reeled off 11 scoreless appearances in his past 12 around a three-run clunker against Philadelphia last week.

Morejon only has six career saves, as he has been a setup arm in front of Robert Suarez and Mason Miller for the past few seasons. It’s admittedly an indictment of the overall free agent class that a setup arm with a near-5.00 ERA nabs a spot on the top 10, but it’s also a testament to Morejon’s ceiling. There are probably teams that feel he’s one of the three to five best left-handed relievers in MLB right now. He’s squarely in the prime of his career, turning 28 next February. Tanner Scott commanded a four-year deal with a lesser track record at age 30. Devin Williams secured a three-year, $51MM deal at 31 with a similar gap between his ERA and much stronger underlying marks.

It’s also worth considering the possibility another team targets Morejon as an upside play for the rotation. He already has the changeup and plus command that clubs prefer in a starter. Morejon was a high-end rotation prospect in the minor leagues who only moved to the bullpen because of a series of early-career arm injuries (2019 shoulder impingement and Tommy John surgery in ’21). Morejon continued to battle injuries through 2023 but has been fully healthy for the past two and a half seasons.

Morejon will be eligible for a qualifying offer. The Padres have shied away from making the QO to borderline candidates in recent years as they navigate short-term payroll concerns. The franchise’s forthcoming sale to José E. Feliciano and Kwanza Jones could change that, but Morejon still seems a longer shot qualifying offer candidate.

10. Ian Happ, OF, Cubs

Happ and Arozarena have been bucketed pretty similarly on previews of the class. They’re both left fielders who’ll turn 32 before Opening Day 2027. Both players have been consistently above-average but shy of elite offensive players. They’re having similarly productive ’26 campaigns.

The main separator is a spike in Happ’s strikeout rate. The former #9 overall pick has fanned at a 32.1% clip on the season, easily his highest rate since 2018. Happ has never had great pure hitting ability but had trimmed his strikeouts to a slightly higher than average 23.4% mark between 2022-25.

Despite the increased swing-and-miss, Happ has some of the best numbers of his career. He’s walking at a typically excellent 13.9% rate while hitting for power. Happ has 14 home runs through the team’s first 66 games, putting him on pace to eclipse 30 for the first time in his career. Even if he doesn’t quite maintain this kind of power production, he’s essentially a lock for his fifth 20-plus homer season in the past six years (and sixth of his career).

Happ has done a disproportionate amount of this year’s damage versus right-handed pitching. He has been better from the left side of the dish throughout his career, though he’s generally close to average versus lefties and well above against right-handers. This year, he’s mashing righties at a .267/.395/.559 clip while limping to a .153/.228/.319 mark versus southpaws. It might just be a blip but is something interested suitors will need to weigh if it continues all season.

Although he’s limited to a corner, Happ has a reputation as one of the top defensive left fielders in the game. He has won the NL Gold Glove in four straight seasons. Outs Above Average has typically rated him right around par. Happ has traditionally fared better by Defensive Runs Saved but also has an essentially neutral grade (+1) in 521 1/3 frames this season. Assuming they remain in contention and avoid a deadline sale, the Cubs will need to weigh qualifying offers for Happ and Seiya Suzuki.

Note: While players with opt-out clauses are eligible, MLBTR currently projects Bo Bichette, Tatsuya Imai and Corbin Burnes not to test free agency.

Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): David Bednar, Kris Bubic, J.P. Crawford, Kevin Gausman, Sonny Gray, Trent Grisham, Clay Holmes, Shota Imanaga, Ryan Jeffers, Nick Martinez, Michael Soroka, Seiya Suzuki, Gleyber Torres, Daulton Varsho, Taylor Ward, Brandon Woodruff

Images courtesy of Imagn Images.