Both the Rangers and left-hander Mike Minor are interested in continuing their relationship beyond the end of the 2020 season, when Minor’s current contract expires. Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that that “preliminary extension talks” have already taken place between the team and Minor’s representatives, though more substantive negotiations are likely to wait until the offseason.
Minor’s future in Arlington was of great speculation in the weeks and months leading up to the trade deadline, as the veteran southpaw drew plenty of interest from teams in need of rotation help. The Yankees, Twins, and Phillies were just a few of the teams known to be linked to Minor’s trade market, and all of the buzz not only seemed to irritate Minor, but also seemed to impact his performance. Minor posted a 6.59 ERA over five starts in July, as opposed to a 2.40 ERA over 112 2/3 IP from March through June, and a perfect 0.00 ERA in 15 August frames.
It still isn’t out of the question that Texas eventually trades Minor this winter, perhaps depending on the tenor of the extension talks. But since GM Jon Daniels already made the call to keep Minor since the Rangers were still on the outskirts of the wild card race, there’s also a solid argument to be made for keeping him in the fold both in 2020 and beyond.
Minor has been tremendous since signing his three-year, $28MM deal in the 2017-18 offseason, following up a strong performance in 2018 with an All-Star showing in 2019. He has a 2.90 ERA, 9.2 K/9, and 3.12 K/BB rate over 155 total frames, with a 175 ERA+ that leads all of baseball. While ERA predictors (3.97 FIP, 4.38 xFIP, 4.30 SIERA) aren’t a fan and he is getting a lot of strand rate help (85.7%), Minor’s .291 wOBA is a near-perfect match of his .290 xwOBA. Looking at the Statcast numbers, Minor is in the top one percent of all pitchers in terms of fastball spin, which thus also explains why batters have been unable to square up much against him — Minor is in the 90th percentile in both exit velocity and hard-hit ball rate.
The big question going forward, of course, is whether Minor can continue to sustain this performance. Minor turns 32 in December, so an extension would begin with his age-33 season, and teams have been increasingly wary about signing any player (pitcher or hitter) into their 30’s. Nonetheless, the Rangers would surely appreciate gaining some extra stability beyond just Lance Lynn amidst an overall unstable rotation mix, while Minor would likely prefer an extension rather than risk a potential downturn in 2020 and an uncertain trip back into the free agent market.
No doubt that he’s been great. Just think we need to rebuild the farm a little bit and his injury history isn’t great. Get a prospect or two and call it. The roster isn’t where it should be for a new park next year anyways.
That FIP should be a giant red flag to flip him.
Given that his Career FIP before this year was a 3.88, I’m not sure you’re the one I would want evaluating advanced metrics if I were an owner or GM. His career ERA and FIP are closer together than those of Cole Hamels and Colby Lewis, two of the three best pitchers in Arlington over the last decade.
I’m not sure what you’re looking at, but a 4.05 FIP is far from terrible. Sure, he’s been getting help from the fielders, but it’s not like this guy has a 4.50 ERA and a 5.61 FIP.
Extending the contract ups his value.
We have tickets to the game before the last in the Ballpark. I’m going to miss it.
Enjoy the heat one last time…..
3.97 FIP…uhhh this is clearly an aberration. He’s a decent 3-4 but he won’t hit this ERA/WAR again.
he’s always been arrogant over confident and it shows when he gets irritated.
Arrogance or confidence?
Minor is the perfect example for why pitching WAR is a dumb stat. He leads the AL even though there are like ten pitchers who blow him out the water across the board.
If you use garbage bWAR for pitching. Fangraphs has him 9th in the AL for fWAR. Which is about right. He’s been pretty good this year.
An extension is smart as it would boost his value as long as this season is a trend for him
Well somebody has to pitch next year…..
Geez, lots of idiotic comments above. Minor isn’t going to get $30mil/year, and for what he will end up getting from the Rangers, he’ll remain a good deal for the team. Yes, he is not a true ace, but even if his numbers regress sightly, he can be an innings-eater for the team at the back of the rotation when they move up somebody better from the farm or go out and try and sign a true ace in free agency. It’s like you are all chomping at the bit for Minor to get hurt or see his numbers slide so you can come on here saying “FIRST! I told you so!”
Yep, if you do extend him, then why assume he has to produce at ace levels for it to be a successful contract? He would provide stability for a team that sorely needs it.
2 Yrs $30M or 3 Yrs $40M makes sense. Real question is can Rangers continue to unlock this type of value on FA pitchers. What they’ve done on Minor & Lance Lynn, plus Japanese import Chris Martin (since traded to Braves) is quite impressive.
Rangers have a lot of pitching prospects about ready for the bigs. Some have made already but the rest are coming soon.
Allard, Palumbo, Burke, Hearn, Clase, Evans, Barlow, Gibault, Huang, Bird, St. John, Bahr.
There will be less need to rely on hopeful vet signings.