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Blue Jays Notes: Hudson, Red Sox, Sogard, Pompey

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Daniel Hudson’s strong season is drawing trade attention from the Red Sox and multiple other teams, MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi reports (Twitter link).  The Blue Jays signed Hudson to a one-year, $1.5MM contract over the offseason, and the 32-year-old is on pace to deliver his best season as a relief pitcher, with a 2.72 ERA, 8.8 K/9, and 2.00 K/BB rate over 43 innings.  The Red Sox are known to be looking at the high end of the bullpen market, though it isn’t surprising that they would also be seeking out pitchers like Hudson, who wouldn’t cost nearly as much in the way of prospects.

Hudson’s performance comes with some red flags, however, as ERA predictors (4.46 FIP, 5.51 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) hint that Hudson is due for some major regression, and he is allowing a lot of hard contact — 40% of Hudson’s balls in play are hard-hit.  On the plus side, Hudson’s fastball velocity and spin rate both rank in the 89th percentile or better of all qualified pitchers, so a lot of that hard contact is going for naught (or is being converted into relatively harmless fly balls, as his 47.5% fly ball rate is well above his 39.2% career average).

Here’s more out of Toronto….

  • In another tweet from Morosi, Eric Sogard is getting some looks from teams in search of a utilityman, especially clubs turned off by the Royals’ “crazy” asking price on Whit Merrifield.  Sogard is another unheralded offseason signing who has become a big contributor for the Jays, with a .305/.369/.491 slash line (128 wRC+) and 10 homers over 304 plate appearances.  MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored how Sogard’s unexpected power surge has been something of a mirage, though Sogard’s solid contact skills and defensive versatility make him an asset even if his bat cools off.  He has worked mostly as a second baseman this year, though also with time at third base, shortstop, and both corner outfield positions.
  • The Blue Jays are facing a decision about Dalton Pompey, Sportsnet.ca’s Arden Zwelling writes, as Pompey’s 20-day injury rehab assignment is up on Monday.  Since Pompey is out of options, the Jays have to either call the outfielder up to the majors, or designate him for assignment.  It isn’t out of the question that Pompey could come through DFA limbo without being claimed, Zwelling notes, as other teams might also not want to spend a 25-man roster spot on his services.  Once a consensus top-50 prospect prior to the 2015 season, Pompey has fallen off the radar after several injury-plagued years, including multiple concussions.  He only returned to action in early July after suffering another concussion during Spring Training.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/21/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • The Blue Jays outrighted Nick Kingham to Triple-A after the right-handed cleared waivers, according to a team announcement.  Kingham was acquired from the Pirates in mid-June, and he posted a 3.50 ERA over 18 relief innings for Toronto before being designated for assignment earlier this week.  Formerly a top-100 prospect during his time in Pittsburgh’s farm system, Kingham has only a 6.23 ERA over 128 2/3 career frames at the big league level.

Red Sox Interested In Ken Giles, Kirby Yates

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While Nathan Eovaldi has been slated to become Boston’s closer, the Red Sox continue to monitor the closer market, with MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi (via Twitter) reporting that the Sox have “active interest” in the Blue Jays’ Ken Giles and the Padres’ Kirby Yates.

The bullpen has been seen as a longstanding problem for the Sox dating back to the offseason, when the team seemed content to let Craig Kimbrel leave in free agency and then more or less stand pat with its relief options.  That strategy has resulted in some pretty inconsistent results from the Red Sox pen this season, with Eovaldi’s recent role change seen as a two birds-with-one stone idea that would both help preserve Eovaldi’s elbow and get him back on a mound quicker, and also address Boston’s need for a stable closer.

Of course, Eovaldi has no experience closing games, so it makes sense that the Sox would at least be checking into options like Yates and Giles to see if another move was possible.  That said, there are a lot of obstacles standing in the way of a trade for either closer.  The Jays have a big asking price on Giles, while the Padres would reportedly only trade Yates for “an overwhelming offer.”  Ergo, acquiring either right-hander would require the Sox to dig deep into an already-thin farm system.

In a pure bidding war for young minor leaguers, it seems unlikely that the Sox would be able to outbid most other interested suitors for either Giles or Yates, and their normal financial might (in terms of taking on money to accommodate trades) is limited by the team’s close proximity to the top luxury tax threshold of $246MM.  Neither Giles or Yates are on particularly big salaries, though every dollar counts considering Roster Resource has Boston’s luxury tax number at just under $244MM.

While high-profile trades between division rivals are usually pretty rare, the Red Sox and Blue Jays combined on a notable deal just last summer, when the Sox acquired future World Series MVP from Toronto.  By contrast, one wonders if the Sox could actually have a tougher time completing a trade with the Padres given the controversy that erupted between the two clubs over the Drew Pomeranz deal in July 2016.  That said, San Diego and Boston have combined on one swap since the Pomeranz trade, the relatively minor deal last November that saw Colten Brewer go to the Sox.

If nothing else, Boston’s interest in Giles and Yates indicates that the team still sees itself as a contender and a buyer at the trade deadline.  At this point, however, it seems like the Sox are vying only for a wild card spot, as Boston sits 11 games behind the Yankees in the AL East race.  The Red Sox are three games behind Oakland for the final AL wild card berth, and with a tough road to travel just to get to a one-game playoff, there has been some suggestion (from both the Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that the Sox should consider trading some veterans to unload salary and restock on young talent for another run in 2020.

Boston’s next 14 games are all against either the Yankees or the Rays, with eight of those games coming before the July 31 trade deadline.  Both Abraham and Cotillo cite this upcoming stretch as the potential turning point of the Red Sox season, with Abraham describing the team’s July 29 off-day as “the organization’s deadline to decide whether this season is worth trying to save.”

AL West Notes: Kelley, Peacock, Puk

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Shawn Kelley will undergo an MRI after feeling what the Rangers described as right biceps tendon soreness during today’s game, manager Chris Woodward told MLB.com’s Alyson Footer and other reporters.  Kelley left today’s game without throwing a pitch, as the veteran righty’s injury developed during his warmup pitches after being called out of the bullpen during the eighth inning.  Over 33 innings this season, Kelley has posted a 3.00 ERA, 8.73 K/9, and a 6.4 K/BB rate, so he’ll be sorely missed in the Texas bullpen if an injured list placement is required.

Kelley’s loss could be doubly problematic for the Rangers since the 35-year-old profiled as a potential trade chip for a Texas club that seems to be falling out of contention.  After surprising many by staying within striking distance of the wild card hunt, a seven-game losing streak has dropped Texas to a 50-49 record and a deficit of 6.5 games between the Rangers and the A’s for the last AL wild card berth.  With such players as Mike Minor and Danny Santana already drawing trade interest from rival teams, Texas is running short on time to prove to the front office that it can contend.

Some more from around the AL West…

  • In an interview on the Astros’ pregame show today (hat tip to the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome), general manager Jeff Luhnow projected that Brad Peacock will likely be out of action until roughly the “middle of next month, realistically.”  Peacock’s recovery from shoulder inflammation hit a setback last week, and the right-hander is now looking at an injured list stint of at least six weeks (he hit the IL on June 28) if Luhnow’s mid-August timeline ends up being accurate.  Peacock’s extended absence has only further deepened the Astros’ need for pitching reinforcements, as he was expected to return from the IL last week.
  • Top Athletics pitching prospect A.J. Puk will be promoted to the organization’s Triple-A affiliate, according to Melissa Lockard of The Athletic (Twitter link).  After Tommy John surgery forced Puk to miss all of 2018, the 6’7″ left-hander got back into action in June, posting a 5.02 ERA, 13.8 K/9, and 3.14 K/BB rate over 14 1/3 combined innings at Double-A and high-A ball.  They aren’t exactly dominant numbers for Puk, though between his long layoff and perhaps some bad luck (four homers in those 14 1/3 IP), the A’s are clearly encouraged enough to give Puk his first taste of Triple-A competition.  The hard-throwing Puk would very likely have been in the big leagues last season had he avoided injury, and is still on track to make his MLB debut this season if he stays healthy.  While the A’s will surely be as cautious as possible with one of their top young hurlers, Puk has the potential to be a very intriguing addition to Oakland’s bullpen or perhaps even the rotation as the A’s continue to chase another postseason berth.
  • In AL West news from earlier today, the Angels officially released Matt Harvey, and the Mariners acquired righty Matt Magill in a trade with the Twins.

Brewers To Place Brandon Woodruff On 10-Day IL Due To Oblique Injury

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The Brewers are placing Brandon Woodruff on the 10-day injured list after the right-hander suffered a left oblique injury during today’s game.  (Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel was among those to report the news.)  Woodruff was two pitches into the fourth inning of today’s start against Arizona when he suffered the injury, and left the game after a visit from the team trainer.

An MRI is scheduled for Monday to determine the extent of the injury, though the best-case scenario is at least a couple of weeks on the IL.  Depending on the severity, many oblique injuries usually require a month or more of recovery time, so the Brewers could potentially be without arguably their best starting pitcher for much (or all) of the pennant race.

Woodruff emerged as both a starter and a multi-inning bullpen weapon for the Brewers down the stretch and into the postseason last year, and earned enough trust from Milwaukee brass to begin the season in the rotation.  That decision proved to be a great one, as Woodruff ended up earning a spot on the NL All-Star team.  Including today’s abbreviated outing against the D’Backs, Woodruff has posted a 3.75 ERA, 10.4 K/9 and only a 2.22 K/BB rate over 117 2/3 innings in 2019.  As per Statcast numbers, he has been one of the league’s best pitchers at limiting exit velocity and hard-hit contract, holding opposing batters to a .286 xwOBA.

Woodruff has been a stabilizing force within a Brewers rotation that has generally delivered middle-of-the-pack numbers this year.  Among the most frustrating parts of Woodruff’s injury was that Milwaukee’s starters were beginning to show signs of rounding into form as a whole, as Gio Gonzalez was back from an IL stint and Chase Anderson has quietly re-established himself as a solid starter after beginning the season in the bullpen.  Zach Davies has also continued to pitch well in terms of bottom-line results, posting a 2.79 ERA despite some questionable advanced metrics.  In terms of a short-term replacement for Woodruff, Adrian Houser is likely the top choice to pick up starts in Woodruff’s place, though a pair of upcoming off-days on the schedule means that a fifth starter likely won’t be needed until sometime next week.

Today’s news will only intensify the Brewers’ search for pitching at the trade deadline, as the team had already been linked to such names as Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard on the starter front, and the Giants’ Will Smith as a potential bullpen upgrade.  Despite some unimpressive play in recent weeks, the Brewers are still in possession of an NL wild card berth, and are two games behind the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.  GM David Stearns said earlier this week that his club was planning to be deadline buyers, though left the door to perhaps standing pat (or at least not making any major splashes) unless the Brewers started to string together some wins.  Today’s win over the D’Backs gave Milwaukee five victories in its last six games.

Latest On Braves’ Trade Targets

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Reports from earlier this month suggested that the Braves hadn’t had any talks with the Blue Jays about Marcus Stroman, and ten days later, this is still the case, according to David O’Brien of The Athletic (Twitter link).  It could be that the Braves are more focused on another Toronto pitcher in closer Ken Giles, as O’Brien writes that “I get [the] impression Giles could be a target” for Atlanta.

The Braves were one of eight teams who had scouts on hand Friday to watch Stroman’s most recent start, though as with many “scouts were in attendance…” types of reports at this time of year, this could be due diligence as much as a case of genuine interest on Atlanta’s part.  Given that the Jays were facing another out-of-contention team in the Tigers, the Braves could have been more focused on some of Detroit’s trade candidates, in addition to Stroman, Giles, or other trade chips on the Blue Jays roster.  (Giles, for the record, didn’t pitch on Friday through he did toss a scoreless inning for the save in Saturday’s game.)

Beyond just scouting, the Braves obviously have a very well-informed source on all things Stroman in general manager Alex Anthopoulos, whose front office made Stroman the 22nd overall pick in 2012 when Anthopoulos was Toronto’s GM.  There has been some speculation as to whether any hard feelings between Anthopoulos and current Jays management could hamper any trade talks between the two clubs, though The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter links) notes that the Blue Jays’ “stance has softened” about making deals with Atlanta, if a particularly hard line was taken at all.

Toronto is known to be seeking a big return for Stroman, and the “ask is high” on Giles as well, in O’Brien’s words.  Giles is not only under team control through 2020, but he is also one of the very best relievers on the trade market this month.  The 28-year-old righty has a 1.64 ERA, 5.7 K/BB rate, and an enormous 15.55 K/9 over 33 innings this season. 

Armed with a fastball that has above-average spin (as per Statcast) and an average velocity of 97.3 mph, Giles has quietly been one of baseball’s more dominant closers, and is seemingly all the way back to top form after running into some difficulties on the field and off with the Astros in 2017-18.  While postseason struggles were a big part of Giles’ issues in Houston, he still represents a more proven ninth-inning answer than the Braves’ current closer, Luke Jackson.

Like many other teams, the Braves aren’t keen on giving up their top prospects for rental players, making Stroman (who also has an arbitration year remaining) and Giles more palatable trade targets since they can also help the club in 2020.  Just one year of control, however, might not be enough to pry away some of the Braves’ top prospects from their highly-rated farm system.  Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution lists right-handers Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright and outfielders Cristian Pache and Drew Waters (the Braves’ top four minor leaguers, according to MLB.com’s rankings) as the youngsters that could be closest to untouchable in trade discussions.  None would be dealt “unless it’s for a controllable difference maker,” Burns writes, and it remains to be seen if the Braves would consider Stroman or Giles at that level.  This is purely my opinion, but I doubt Atlanta would deal any of those prospects for a reliever, even one as talented as Giles.

It’s easy for fans or armchair GMs to argue that the Braves should be more forthcoming to deal from their large wealth of prospects, though ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) noted that these minor leaguers are particularly important to a Braves organization that is more than a little hamstrung in the international market due to the signing violations that cost former GM John Coppolella his job in 2017.  Since the Braves front office also seems to be operating with a mid-level payroll at best, it makes the pipeline of talent like Pache, Anderson, Wright, and Waters all the more important to the team going forward.

Latest On Phillies’ Pitching Targets

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July 19: The Phillies have also shown some level of interest in Blue Jays righty Marcus Stroman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Given that Stroman is eminently available and arguably the most likely pitcher in baseball to be traded in the next two weeks, it’d be a surprise if Philadelphia (or any other team eyeing rotation upgrades) hadn’t reached out to Toronto to express interest.

July 18: It’s already been a busy day on the Phillies rumor mill, as we’ve heard reports connecting the team to such names as the Rangers’ Mike Minor, newly-minted free agent Drew Smyly, and (before he was dealt to the Red Sox) Andrew Cashner.  Since pitching is such a priority for the arm-needy Phils, it’s no surprise that they’ve cast a wide eye across the pitching market, as NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury reports that the Phillies have also had talks about Giants southpaw Madison Bumgarner, Tigers lefty Matt Boyd, and Diamondbacks right-hander Zack Greinke.

The Phils also looked into Homer Bailey before the Royals dealt Bailey to the Athletics last weekend, indicating that Philadelphia is looking at all ends of the pitching market.  As Salisbury notes, the Phillies aren’t keen on giving up several top prospects to land a top starter, as rival teams are still putting high price tags on their best trade chips.

Lower-level targets like Cashner, Bailey, and Smyly are therefore also being explored to help stabilize at least the back of the Phillies’ rotation.  Of course, the Phillies are arguably in need of multiple arms already, and that need will only become more severe if Jake Arrieta ends up requiring season-ending surgery.  Trading for two top-of-the-market starters is almost surely too steep a price for the Phillies, so a tactic of acquiring just one of those top-flight arms and then signing a pitcher like Smyly could be a more viable strategy if Philadelphia does intend to pick up more than one starter.

Recent comments from team president Andy MacPhail suggest that the Phillies aren’t going to give up top prospects for a rental player (if at all), and perhaps could be more inclined to pursue trades that would see the team take on salary rather than move much in the way of notable minor league talent.  This stance would seem to make it less likely that the Phillies make a strong push for Bumgarner (a free agent after the season) or Boyd, who will be relatively cost-controlled through three arbitration-eligible seasons but is only available for a team that meets the Tigers’ heavy asking price.

This leaves Greinke as a potentially very intriguing candidate, as the Diamondbacks are likelier to accept a lower-level prospect package just for the sake of getting the righty’s salary off the books.  While Greinke has largely been excellent over his tenure in Arizona, his contract takes up such a big percentage of the team’s payroll that it has left the semi-rebuilding D’Backs somewhat hamstrung in terms of financial flexibility.  Greinke is owed roughly $83.1MM in salary and signing bonus allotments until the end of the 2021 season — to put it in perspective, Greinke alone accounted for almost 28 percent of the Diamondbacks’ player payroll in 2019.

Trading for Greinke would probably put the Phillies over the $206MM luxury tax threshold, as Roster Resource currently projects their number as $196.36MM.  The Phils could try to move some other salaries to carve out some extra payroll space, or perhaps just accept going over the tax limit as the cost of doing business for a run at the postseason.

Then again, this could all be a moot point since Greinke said in February that he didn’t want to be dealt anywhere, and the Phillies are one of the 15 teams on his no-trade list.  While it’s possible Greinke’s feelings have changed in recent months, it could take some further negotiating to get Greinke into the fold, perhaps so much so that the Phillies could prefer to just move onto another trade target.

Mets Notes: Trades, Nimmo, O’Rourke

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The latest on the Mets….

  • The Mets entered the day with a 44-51 record, they’re still only five games out of a wild card spot in the congested National League.  With this in mind, the New York Post’s Joel Sherman suggests that if the team isn’t going to really blow things up by dealing Noah Syndergaard or Jacob deGrom, they might as well hang onto other veteran trade chips like Zack Wheeler, Todd Frazier, and Jason Vargas (none of whom are likely to generate much in the way of a return at the deadline, with Wheeler’s value in question due to injury) to try and contend down the stretch.  With so much parity in the NL, “why not just play this out, rather than performing a fan-angering salary dump for minimal prospect return?” Sherman asks.
  • Brandon Nimmo is able to resume some baseball activities after the Mets shut him down last month, MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo reports (Twitter link).  While Nimmo probably won’t start a rehab assignment “until August at the earliest,” it’s still a positive step forward given that Nimmo has been suffering from a bulging cervical disc in his neck.  It would seem like there’s at least some chance Nimmo gets back onto the field this season, though the Mets will obviously be careful with the outfielder given the delicate nature of the injury.
  • Ryan O’Rourke was designated for assignment by the Mets in late June, and learned about the move in unfortunate fashion, Syracuse.com’s Lindsay Kramer writes.  O’Rourke wasn’t told about the transaction by a coach or staff member, but rather via Twitter after a teammate showed him the news prior to a game.  The left-hander ended up remaining in the organization at Triple-A Syracuse after being outrighted off the 40-man roster in late June, though O’Rourke took advantage of his brief hiatus in a unique manner.  He ended up playing for Team Ireland in the qualifying rounds of the 2019 European Baseball Championship, appearing in two games for his grandfather’s home country.   “I was so happy. It was one of the better experiences in baseball of my entire life….I’m not representing myself, I’m representing my parents, my grandparents. I’m representing a country. I’ve never represented a country before when I played so it was really cool,” O’Rourke said.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/18/19

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The latest minor moves from around baseball…

  • Right-hander Clayton Blackburn announced his retirement from baseball, as per his Instagram page.  Originally a 16th-round pick for the Giants in 2011, Blackburn posted a 3.46 ERA, 8.2 K/9, and 4.05 K/BB rate over 751 career minor league frames, and he cracked Baseball Prospectus’ top-100 prospects list prior to the 2013 season.  That promise didn’t result in any official MLB appearances, however, as Blackburn received call-ups to the Giants in 2016 and the Rangers in 2017 but he never got into a game, thus making him a so-called “phantom Major Leaguer.”  After undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, Blackburn has decided to hang up his cleats at age 26.  We at MLBTR wish Blackburn the best in his post-playing career.

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