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Offseason Outlook: San Francisco Giants

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

A disastrous 2017 season could have the Giants looking for some big moves this winter to try and spur a quick return to contention.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Buster Posey, C: $85.6MM through 2021 ($22MM club option for 2022 with $3MM buyout)
  • Johnny Cueto, SP: $84MM through 2021 ($22MM club option for 2022 with $5MM buyout — Cueto can opt out of contract and receive buyout within three days after conclusion of 2017 World Series)
  • Brandon Belt, 1B: $64MM through 2021
  • Brandon Crawford, SS: $60MM through 2021
  • Jeff Samardzija, SP: $54MM through 2020
  • Mark Melancon, RP: $38MM through 2020 (can opt out of deal after 2018 season)
  • Hunter Pence, OF: $18.5MM through 2018
  • Denard Span, OF: $9MM through 2018 ($12MM mutual option for 2019 with $4MM buyout)
  • Matt Moore, SP: $9MM through 2018 ($10MM club option for 2019 with $750K buyout)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

  • Matt Cain, SP: $21MM club option for 2018, $7.5MM buyout (option will be bought out, with Cain heading into retirement)
  • Madison Bumgarner, SP: $12MM club option for 2018 ($1.5MM buyout)
  • Pablo Sandoval, 3B: Minimum salary club options for 2018 and 2019 if Sandoval is still on MLB roster at season’s end (the Red Sox will pay the prorated remainder of $41MM owed through 2019)

Free Agents

San Francisco Giants Depth Chart; San Francisco Giants Payroll Information

After investing heavily in free agent signings and lucrative extensions for homegrown players over the last two offseasons, the Giants watched in dismay as virtually all of those core pieces underachieved in 2017.  It all added up to a shocking 64-98 record, the worst performance by a San Francisco team since the 1985 squad lost 100 games.

While it isn’t likely that another Murphy’s Law type of season will happen again, there are enough questions surrounding the club’s veteran core that standing pat isn’t an option.  The Giants can be pretty confident that they’ll get more than 111 innings from Madison Bumgarner, though they can hardly be sure that all of Johnny Cueto, Mark Melancon and Brandon Belt will be healthy, or that Brandon Crawford and Matt Moore will both return to form.

Some changes are clearly necessary to upgrade a team that finished near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories, including last in homers and OPS and second-to-last in runs and on-base percentage.  San Francisco was also one of the league’s worst defensive teams, and recent comments from GM Bobby Evans indicate that the front office is looking to re-establish itself as a pitching-and-defense team first, without selling out that core identity in a pursuit of power hitters.

The outfield is the clearest area of concern, as left field was a revolving door all season and Denard Span and Hunter Pence combined for just 1.9 fWAR as the regulars in center and right field.  Defensive metrics haven’t been kind to Span’s center field glovework for years, while Pence’s work in right field has traditionally received above-average UZR/150 grades but below-average marks in terms of Defensive Runs Saved.  Since neither player has a strong throwing arm, the Giants are in a tough spot of having two high-priced outfielders best suited for a move to left field.

A free agent like Lorenzo Cain would be a great fit for the Giants’ needs, as the long-time Royal brings a major defensive upgrade to center field and some right-handed balance to the lineup.  Even if a big name like Cain is brought in to handle center field, however, simply going with Span and Pence in the corners may not be a recipe for success.  The outfield mix could be shaken up entirely with a big trade or two.

As of late August, the Giants were the team with the most interest in Giancarlo Stanton, who is a logical trade candidate for a Marlins team that seems poised for another payroll cut.  Stanton has clearly stated that he doesn’t want to be part of another Marlins rebuild, so his no-trade clause probably wouldn’t be an issue, especially since the California native is reportedly open to a move back to the west coast.  It also stands to reason that the Giants would ask Miami about Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, with Yelich perhaps being the best fit since he can play center field (even if the defensive metrics weren’t enamored with his glovework in 2017).

All three outfielders would come with big asking prices, and given the Giants’ thin farm system, other teams are better equipped to sway the Marlins with a package of prospects.  Stanton may cost the least in terms of players and prospects if a suitor is willing to absorb a significant chunk of the ten years and $295MM remaining on the slugger’s contract (provided Stanton doesn’t opt out after the 2020 season).

The lack of prospects won’t help the Giants in trade talks with the Marlins or other teams with outfielders for sale, and signing Cain or another expensive outfielder in free agency may also be tricky since the Giants have already made a number of long-term commitments.  San Francisco has at least $100MM in payroll on the books through the 2020 season, and that isn’t counting the possibility of an extension with Bumgarner.  Between guaranteed deals, projected arbitration payouts and the no-brainer pick-up of Bumgarner’s club option, the Giants have roughly $170MM committed to 16 players next year, putting them in danger of surpassing the $197MM luxury tax threshold.

While the Giants have slightly exceeded the tax limit in each of the past two seasons, they’ll face a larger penalty for repeated overages under the new collective bargaining agreement.  Like every other team in the game, the Giants also surely want to be under the tax limit to clear their path for next winter and the star-laden 2018-19 free agent class.

(One big salary could still potentially come off the books if Cueto exercises his opt-out clause after the World Series, though it’s hard to fathom that Cueto would walk away four years and $84MM after a season that saw him limited to 147 1/3 innings due to a minor flexor strain and blister issues.)

An existing contract could be moved as part of a trade, either as partial salary relief for someone like Stanton or simply to dump some money on a team willing to absorb a large contract in exchange for some young talent.  Complicating this strategy, of course, is that so many of the highest-paid Giants have either full (Melancon, Pence, Crawford, Buster Posey) or partial (Belt, Bumgarner, Jeff Samardzija) no-trade clauses, and the club obviously isn’t going to deal cornerstones like Posey or Bumgarner.  The likes of Span or Joe Panik could become viable trade candidates almost by default since they’re two of the few notable Giants that can be freely dealt.

Span’s trade value is questionable, with a $9MM salary due in 2018 and so-so numbers last year.  If he was traded and the Giants acquired an established center fielder, they could go with internal options in left field (Jarrett Parker, Austin Slater, Mac Williamson and Gorkys Hernandez, plus top prospect Chris Shaw).  While Slater and Shaw are promising youngsters, it could be a tough call to entrust the position to unproven players, especially since San Francisco got so little out of its left fielders in 2017.

Moving Panik would open a hole at second base, though there is some question as to whether Panik is a long-term answer for the Giants at the keystone (Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News recently examined the idea of Panik as a trade chip).  The second baseman is entering arbitration eligibility for the first time and has posted solid numbers when healthy, though Panik’s history of concussions is a big concern, particularly for a Giants club that has already invested in a first baseman with similar health problems.

Speaking of Belt, he hit well when he was able to play in 2017, but his season was cut short in early August after he suffered the fourth documented concussion of his career.  There have been rumblings that manager Bruce Bochy would be open to a change at first base, though Belt’s health issues and the $64MM owed to him through 2021 don’t help his trade value.  (Plus, as noted earlier, Belt has partial no-trade protection in the form of a ten-team no-trade list.)

Elsewhere around the infield, Crawford is hoping for a rebound after a down season at the plate (which could possibly have been influenced by much more serious off-the-field concerns).  Third base is wide open, with Pablo Sandoval on hand as a veteran option and top prospect Christian Arroyo battling to win the job or at least earn a platoon role.

With this much uncertainty, a multi-positional infielder would be a good fit, and old friend Eduardo Nunez seems like a logical target in free agency.  Assuming the Giants don’t make the bold move of shopping Arroyo, Nunez’s versatility doesn’t outright block Arroyo at third base, whereas signing a Mike Moustakas would lock up the position over the long term (and, again, further muddy the luxury tax outlook).  A player like Nunez would get the bulk of third base time and, if Arroyo did break out, Nunez could be shifted all around the diamond rather than create a logjam at the position.

Todd Frazier would also make sense as a third base signing, as he wouldn’t require too long a deal and he could also shift over to first in the event that Belt again misses time.  (Acquiring an outfielder who can play first base would also help in this regard.)  Posey will also get his usual share of time at first in order to keep him fresh, though he is firmly ensconced behind the plate for the foreseeable future. Nick Hundley is a free agent, and there is mutual interest in a reunion between the two sides, so he’s probably the favorite for the backup catching job in 2018 unless he gets offered more playing time elsewhere.

Turning to the rotation, San Francisco has one of baseball’s best one-two punches (when healthy) in Bumgarner and Cueto.  Samardzija still hasn’t taken the step forward to become a true front-of-the-rotation pitcher, though he has been durable and generally solid in his two years with the team.  The Giants already exercised their $9MM club option on Moore for next season, hoping the southpaw can return to his 2016 form after a rough 2017 season.

Ty Blach and Chris Stratton are the top choices for the fifth starter’s job, and with such inexperienced options in the mix and Moore coming off such a shaky year, the Giants could stand to bolster the back end of their pitching staff.  Like every other team in the game, the Giants have an interest in Shohei Otani, though they’ll be limited to offering him a $300K deal (due to exceeding international signing bonus limits in the past) and they don’t have a DH spot to offer the two-way star.

Barring a win in the Otani sweepstakes, the Giants could turn to the free agent market for veterans willing to sign a short-term deal, perhaps to rebuild their value pitching at AT&T Park.  Jeremy Hellickson, Chris Tillman, Doug Fister, or Ubaldo Jimenez fit this description, or perhaps Bartolo Colon would like to spend what is probably his final season playing for a potential contender.  CC Sabathia is already in the midst of a career renaissance, though the Bay Area native stands out as an intriguing target if he wants to make a homecoming.  On the trade front, San Francisco could again look for short-term veteran arms or perhaps go bigger by asking about a controllable young starter (i.e. Julio Teheran, Jake Odorizzi).  The latter option, of course, could again by limited by the Giants’ relative lack of available young talent.

The Giants’ bullpen was a problem area last year, thanks in large part to Melancon’s injury-plagued season and Will Smith missing the whole year recovering from Tommy John surgery.  The pen will improve simply by dint of those two relievers being back in the mix (Smith is tentatively expected to return in May), joining the right-handed trio of Cory Gearrin, Hunter Strickland and Sam Dyson atop the bullpen depth chart.  I’d expect San Francisco to target at least one more left-handed reliever given Smith’s status.  The team could shop on the free-agent market for one southpaw (e.g. Tony Watson, Brian Duensing, Jake McGee) and then turn to internal options (such as Josh Osich, Steven Okert or Blach) for further left-handed depth.

With so much talent on hand and big contracts on the books, the Giants don’t really have any choice but to try and compete in 2018.  As the Tigers or the pre-rebuild Phillies could tell you, this can be a dangerous spot for a team, though a teardown would also seem awfully hasty.  The Giants’ front office faces a challenge in fixing a roster that they didn’t at all think was broken heading into 2017, and it remains to be seen if the team is just one or two additions away from contending or if a more thorough roster shuffle is coming.

The Red Sox’ Managerial Search

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After back-to-back early postseason exits in the ALDS, the Red Sox decided to part ways with manager John Farrell.  There was already speculation before the dismissal that Farrell was on the hot seat, and the rumor mill has only picked up speed now that Boston’s search has officially begun.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will now have his first opportunity to personally hire a manager since joining the Red Sox in the summer of 2015.

As we’ve done with the Tigers, Mets, and Phillies, we’ll begin to house all of the managerial chatter for the Red Sox in one place and update accordingly as candidates either further their case or are removed from consideration. Here’s where Boston’s search stands, at present:

Latest Updates

  • The club is expected to conduct a second round of interviews before making any offers of employment, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston (via Twitter). There’s a sense inside the organization, though, that Cora is the front-runner, Drellich further writes. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) hears that both Cora and Ausmus are “at the center of conversations,” with expectations being that it won’t take long to name a new manager.

Will Interview/Have Interviewed

  • Recently departed Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus has interviewed for the position, as Chad Jennings of the Boston Herald reported on Twitter and we covered further in another post.
  • Astros bench coach Alex Cora is expected to interview with the Sox on Sunday, Dan Shaughnessy of the Boston Globe reports.  He’s Boston’s top candidate for the job, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (on Twitter). Cora is also expected to interview for the Tigers and Mets openings.  Though Cora is still in the midst of his first coaching stint on a big league staff, the 41-year-old has long been considered a promising managerial candidate, previously receiving interviews for openings with the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Nationals and Padres in recent years.  Cora enjoyed a 14-year career in the big leagues (including a stint with the Red Sox from 2005-08) before moving on to work as an analyst for ESPN and ESPN Deportes, and as a general manager in the Puerto Rican Baseball League.
  • The Red Sox have requested the Diamondbacks’ permission to interview bench coach Ron Gardenhire, Rosenthal tweets; he’s expected to chat with the team later this week, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe (via Twitter). The former Twins manager is one of the “final three” candidates for the job, according to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (via Twitter)

Preliminary Candidates (Interview Status Unknown)

  • In addition to Ausmus, Indians first base coach Sandy Alomar Jr., Dodgers bench coach Bob Geren, Giants hitting coach Hensley Meulens have all been mentioned as likely or speculative candidates by several reporters (including Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, NBCSports.com’s Evan Drellich and the Boston Herald’s Chad Jennings).  Ausmus may be a particular name to watch, as Dombrowski hired him as Detroit’s manager after the 2013 season and (according to Peter Gammons) Ausmus delivered a very strong performance when interviewing for Boston’s last managerial opening in the 2012-13 offseason.

Not in the Mix/No Longer in Consideration

  • Current members of the Red Sox coaching staff have been told that they are free to look for jobs outside the organization.  When asked if an internal candidate could be hired, Dombrowski said “most likely not, but I’m not going to say for sure not.”  This would more or less seem to rule out names like bench coach Gary DiSarcina, hitting coach Chili Davis or third base coach Brian Butterfield, who have all been linked to previous managerial openings in the past.
  • Dombrowski also expressed a preference for candidates with past managerial or coaching experience on a Major League staff, so longtime Red Sox catcher and current Dombrowski special assistant Jason Varitek doesn’t seem to be in the running.

Dodgers Leave Corey Seager Off NLCS Roster

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5:50pm: Seager told reporters on Saturday that he will not play in the NLCS. He’s dealing with “a lot of tightness” in his back and is “not really mobile,” and is “hoping” he’ll be able to return should the Dodgers advance to the World Series. It’s possible Seager will start baseball activities next week (Twitter links via Bill Shaikin and Andy McCullough of the Los Angeles Times).

4:04pm: Seager received an epidural injection after suffering a lower back sprain, Roberts told reporters (including J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group).  Seager suffered the injury during a slide into second base in the first inning of Game 3 of the NLDS and he “hasn’t hit, hasn’t moved around” in terms of baserunning since, Roberts said.  The shortstop is considered day-to-day for now, and Roberts didn’t rule out the possibility of Seager being added to the roster later in the series (though this would require another player going on the DL and thus subsequently being inactive for the World Series).

1:11pm: Star shortstop Corey Seager wasn’t included on the Dodgers’ 25-man roster for the National League Championship Series, as revealed today when the Dodgers announced their roster.  Los Angeles made two changes from its NLDS roster, with Seager and righty Pedro Baez omitted in favor of outfielder Joc Pederson and utilityman Charlie Culberson.

Seager missed the last two days of team workouts due to a bad back, and the injury is apparently severe enough that the Dodgers didn’t feel comfortable activating him even for a critical playoff series.  Manager Dave Roberts described Seager’s problem as a “muscular issue” to MLB.com’s Joshua Thornton and other reporters yesterday, and while Roberts expressed confidence at the time that Seager would be in the Game 1 lineup, the shortstop’s absence could indicate a turn for the worse, or perhaps just extreme caution on the team’s part.

Seager could still appear in the NLCS if another Dodger were to hit the DL during the best-of-seven set with the Cubs.  Seager also would’ve been ineligible for the World Series if he’d been removed from the NLCS roster due to injury, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register points out on Twitter.  Assuming Seager’s back problems don’t continue, deactivating him now preserves his status for the Fall Classic.

Of course, the Dodgers now face a tougher path to the Series without Seager in the fold.  After winning Rookie Of The Year honors in 2016, Seager enjoyed a big sophomore season, hitting .295/.375/.479 and 22 homers over 613 PA.  These numbers were posted despite battling elbow problems late in the year, and as Andy McCullough of the L.A. Times recently reported, Seager and Dodgers management haven’t always seen eye-to-eye when it comes to playing through pain, as Seager is loath to take time off.

Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are the likeliest candidates to fill the starting shortstop role throughout the NLCS, with Logan Forsythe and Culberson also possibilities.  Pederson’s inclusion on the roster gives the Dodgers an additional left-handed bat and more outfield depth, which would allow Taylor or Hernandez to move into infield duty.  If Forsythe plays short, Chase Utley could step in at second base, though this scenario would only be deployed with a right-handed pitcher on the mound.

Cafardo’s Latest: V-Mart, Bradley, Hickey, Farrell, Phillies

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The chances of Victor Martinez continuing his career may be “touch and go” in the aftermath of heart-related health issues in 2017, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes.  The Tigers slugger twice suffered irregular heartbeats, the second of which led to chronic ablation surgery in early September that prematurely ended his season.  Martinez has one year and $18MM remaining on his original four-year contract with the Tigers, and he turns 39 years old in December, so retirement could potentially not be far away for the veteran.  That said, the top priority is Martinez’s health, and everyone around baseball is pulling for Martinez to both make a full recovery and be able to end his career on his own terms, whether after the 2018 season or beyond.

Here’s more from Cafardo’s weekly notes column…

  • Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a big commodity on the trade market, as Cafardo opines that the Red Sox could deal Bradley, move Andrew Benintendi to center field and then sign J.D. Martinez to play left field.  Boston’s “need for power is so critical,” Cafardo writes, that the Sox may have to take the hit on defense, not to mention the payroll hit of dealing Bradley (controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season) and spending big on Martinez.  Cafardo also noted Martinez as a potential Boston target in his column last week, citing the past relationship between Martinez and Dave Dombrowski from their time together in Detroit.  The Giants, Phillies, Royals and Braves are all listed as potential suitors if the Red Sox did shop Bradley, and several more teams would certainly check in on the 27-year-old.  Bradley took a step backwards at the plate this season, though he posted above-average hitting numbers in 2015-16 and is one of the game’s better defensive players.
  • Jim Hickey has drawn a lot of attention for pitching coach vacancies around the sport, though Cafardo writes that some around the game consider Hickey to be a potential managerial candidate.  He speculates that “the Mets could take a long look” at Hickey, or potentially the Red Sox as they look to replace another former pitching coach-turned-manager in John Farrell.
  • Speaking of Farrell, he could emerge as a contender for one of the open managerial vacancies around the game, or even with the Nationals if they choose to move on from Dusty Baker.  One AL executive feels the Nats “would be looking at strongly” if they did make a change in the dugout, though the exec also feels Farrell may take a season away from the game to both increase his job options and perhaps just to take a break from the grind.
  • While discussing teams looking for managers, Cafardo makes the interesting comment that “the Phillies still have their sights on” Orioles skipper Buck Showalter.  Once Pete Mackanin was reassigned from the manager’s job in Philadelphia, there was some initial speculation about the Phils targeting Showalter given his ties to Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak.  Since then, however, the Phillies have seemingly moved onto other candidates, plus there’s the obvious obstacle of Showalter still being under contract to the Orioles for one more season.
  • Speaking of the Phillies job, Cafardo also notes that Red Sox bench coach Gary DiSarcina’s name has come up as a possible candidate.  DiSarcina worked for the Angels as a coach and front office assistant during Klentak’s stint with the club as an assistant GM.  The longtime former Angels infielder has several years of experience in a variety of front office, coaching and minor league managerial roles with the Halos and Red Sox.

5 Key Stories: 10/7/17 – 10/13/17

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Here’s the recap of the top stories from the past week at MLBTR…

Sep 15, 2017; St. Petersburg, FL, USA; Boston Red Sox manager John Farrell (53) prior to the game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Red Sox fire John Farrell: Rumors have long swirled about Farrell’s job security, and the Red Sox decided to make a change in the dugout after they were eliminated from the ALDS for the second consecutive season.  President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski will now get the chance to make his own choice about Boston’s manager, with such names as Brad Ausmus, Alex Cora, Ron Gardenhire, Sandy Alomar Jr. and others mentioned as potential candidates.  It isn’t known how long this search could take, as Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reported that the Red Sox are already down to their “final three” contenders for the job, with Gardenhire one of the finalists.

Marlins planning to slash payroll: It’s deja vu for Miami baseball fans, another offseason of payroll reduction seems to be in store for the Marlins.  The club reportedly intends to trim payroll down to around the $90MM mark, which will only increase speculation that Giancarlo Stanton will be in another uniform come Opening Day 2018.

Twins extend Paul Molitor: The Hall-of-Famer concluded his first managerial contract in good negotiating position after leading the Twins on a surprise run to the AL wild card game.  The Twins’ success ended speculation that the Derek Falvey/Thad Levine front office would want to hire their own manager, and Molitor was rewarded with a three-year extension worth a reported $4MM.  The Twins have posted winning records in two of Molitor’s three years as manager, albeit sandwiched around a 103-loss season in 2016.

Greg Holland to test free agency: As expected, the Rockies closer will decline his $15MM player option in search of a longer-term deal on the open market.  Despite some shaky results over the last two months, Holland still performed very well after missing all of 2016 recovering from Tommy john surgery, and helped the Rox reach the NL wild card game.

Qualifying offer set at $17.4MM: As reported by MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes, the price tag for this offseason’s qualifying offers will be $17.4MM.  If a pending free agent accepts the one-year QO, he’ll return to his team at that healthy salary for the 2018 season.  If the player rejects the qualifying offer, his former team can recoup some draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, though the new collective bargaining agreement has greatly altered the previous QO rules.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

AL West Links: Angels, Davis, Keuchel

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It was on this day in 1929 that the Athletics (then based out of Philadelphia) won the World Series after a walkoff comeback in Game Five against the Cubs.  Down 2-0 doing into the bottom of the ninth, the A’s tied it on Mule Haas’ two-run homer, and then Bing Miller later delivered an RBI double for the game- and Series-winning run.  This comeback came just two days after the A’s scored 10 runs in the bottom of the seventh in Game Four, erasing an 8-0 Cubs lead.

Here’s the latest from around the AL West…

  • The Angels aren’t likely to pursue any high-priced pitching upgrades this winter, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado writes as part of a reader mailbag.  Assuming their rotation is finally healthy after a pair of injury-plagued years, Guardado projects Garrett Richards, Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, Matt Shoemaker and Nick Tropeano as the Halos’ starting five, with Parker Bridwell as the top depth option.  The club could add some further arms on minor league deals or trades, and I’d argue that one more solid innings-eater is required given the number of health question marks on the Angels’ staff.
  • During an appearance on MLB.com’s Newsmakers podcast, Khris Davis tells Bill Ladson (audio link) that he enjoys playing in Oakland but doesn’t necessarily anticipate remaining over the long term, given the Athletics’ penchant for trading established players for prospects.  “I see myself year by year. I don’t know what the longest streak for a player to be in Oakland is, but I know that it’s a business, and one day I’ll have to leave,“ Davis said.  The team at least explored the possibility of an extension with Davis and Marcus Semien last year, and Billy Beane recently discussed how the A’s are looking to lock up some core pieces, so one would assume that the club will re-open talks with Davis at some point this winter.  Davis has done nothing but mash since joining the A’s two years ago, delivering a pair of 40+ homer seasons and improving his walk rate last season, en route to a .247/.336/.528 slash line over 652 PA.  That big year has put Davis in line for a projected $11.1MM salary in 2018 via arbitration, so an extension would also give the A’s some cost certainty over Davis as his price tag will rise again during his final arb-eligible offseason in 2018-19.
  • Dallas Keuchel hopes to remain with the Astros over the long term, and the ace southpaw tells NBCSports.com’s Evan Drellich that “winning is going to be the biggest factor” in deciding his future, whether that involves signing an extension with Houston or leaving in free agency after the 2018 season.  The Astros certainly seem well-positioned to be long-term contenders, though they’ll face some interesting decisions about keeping their core together over the coming years, with Keuchel being the first of their cornerstone players to reach the open market.

Rays Notes: Morrison, Ballpark, Coaches, McKay

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It seems like “a longshot” that Logan Morrison will return to the Rays next year, MLB.com’s Bill Chastain opines as part of a reader mailbag piece.  Morrison posted middling numbers in 2016 and underwent wrist surgery in September of that year, which cooled his free agent market to the point that the Rays were able to re-sign him to a one-year, $2.5MM deal.  That proved to be a nice bargain for Tampa Bay, as Morrison hit .246/.353/.516 with 38 homers over 601 plate appearances.  The Rays seem committed to giving rookie Jake Bauers a shot at first base next year but are looking for a veteran depth option, and they’d certainly be open to a reunion with Morrison if he again faced a thin market.  However, Morrison’s career year has likely earned him a steadier full-time gig and priced him out of Tampa’s plans.  Here’s some more on the Rays…

  • Hillsborough Country officials have run into difficulty trying to secure downtown land for the Rays’ new ballpark, forcing the search for a new site to expand to Tampa’s West Shore area, Steve Contorto of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  While the West Shore area has some positives as a potential ballpark site, “broadening the hunt at this point — 22 months after St. Petersburg allowed the Rays to search for a new home away from Tropicana Field — can only be seen as a step backward for an effort many hoped would have been wrapped up by now,” Contorto writes.  It isn’t certain if a new site will be agreed upon before the year is over, and once a site is found, there’s still the large matter of determining of how the costs of the new ballpark will be split between the team and the county.
  • The Rays have 5-10 candidates on their list of potential interviewees for their vacant third base coach and assistant hitting coach vacancies, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.  Tigers third base coach Dave Clark, Phillies third base coach Juan Samuel, former Mariners bench coach Tim Bogar and Triple-A hitting coach Ozzie Timmons are all possible candidates, with Topkin wondering if Red Sox third base coach Brian Butterfield could also get some consideration.
  • Top prospect Brendan McKay will be working strictly as a position player during instructional league action this fall, though Rays director of minor league operations Mitch Lukevics tells MLB.com’s Mike Rosenbaum that this decision was made due to McKay already throwing quite a few innings this year between college and minor league games.  The fourth overall pick of the 2017 draft posted a 1.80 ERA over 20 IP at low-A ball this season while hitting .232/.349/.376 in his first 149 professional plate appearances, playing at first base and serving as a designated hitter.  It it yet to be seen if “Two Way McKay” will continue both pitching and playing in the field, though the Rays still appear open to using McKay in this intriguing dual capacity.

MLBTR Originals

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Here is the past week’s original content from here at MLB Trade Rumors…

  • MLBTR released its annual set of arbitration projections, as per the model developed by contributor Matt Swartz.  Every player eligible (or potentially eligible) for arbitration this offseason is covered, providing an idea about what the players are likely to earn in 2018 and the projected costs of each team’s arb class.
  • This year’s qualifying offer will be valued at $17.4MM, Tim Dierkes reported.  While only a minor bump from last year’s $17.2MM value, it still represents a nice payday on a one-year deal, so we could see at least one free agent accept a QO for the third straight offseason.
  • MLBTR’s annual Offseason Outlook series breaks down in detail what each of the 30 teams will look to address before next Opening Day.  The Orioles (by Mark Polishuk), Tigers (by Steve Adams) and White Sox (by Tim) were the first three teams to be featured in this year’s series.
  • Jonathan Lucroy is featured in the latest edition of Free Agent Stock Watch, as Jeff Todd breaks down what Lucroy may earn in the open market on the heels of an inconsistent season.  Jeff projects Lucroy will still land a significant contract this winter after the catcher seemed to regain his old form after a deadline trade from the Rangers to the Rockies.
  • As we prepare for another winter of big signings, Connor Byrne checks in on the 12 most expensive free agent deals handed out in the 2016-17 offseason.  Let it be a cautionary tale about the risks of big-ticket free agency — less than half of the players signed to those contracts had fully healthy and productive seasons in 2017.
  • With the Marlins rumored to be cutting payroll and trade rumors swirling around Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, Connor polled MLBTR readers about the future of the three Miami outfielders.  Over 45% of voters predicted that at least two of the outfielders will be traded in the offseason, and the option of “none will be dealt” garnered the least amount of support (8.07%).
  • In another poll, Jeff asks the readership for their opinion on how much Eric Hosmer stands to earn in free agency.
  • With Aaron Nola looking like a cornerstone piece of the Phillies’ rotation, Jeff examined the possibility (and potential costs) of a contract extension between the two parties.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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This is the first entry in MLBTR’s 2017-18 Offseason Outlook series.  Stay tuned in the coming weeks for entries on every team in baseball.

With several key figures entering their final year under contract, 2018 could mark the end of this era of Orioles baseball.  In order to go out in a blaze of glory, the O’s will need to address their rotation first and foremost, though other holes exist around the roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Contract Options

Free Agents

[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart; Orioles Payroll Overview]

While the rotation has gotten much of the blame for the Orioles’ disappointing 75-87 record, it was far from the team’s only problem.  The lineup hit a lot of home runs, but no club walked less or stole fewer bases than the Orioles.  They also played below-average defense: Baltimore posted minus-17 Defensive Runs Saved and only the A’s had a lower UZR/150 than the Orioles’ minus-4.7 number.  Even the O’s vaunted bullpen, such a strength in recent years, delivered just middle-of-the-pack results in most categories. Zach Britton’s injury problems were the culprit here, as Britton not only missed time but didn’t dominate nearly to the extent he did from 2014-16.

It all added up to a last-place finish in the AL East and a looming sense that it could be now-or-never for the Orioles in 2018.  This could be the final season in Baltimore for Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Brad Brach and Britton. It’s worth noting, too, that both executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter are entering the last years of their contracts.  By this time next October, the Orioles franchise could be moving in a completely new direction.

Until then, however, the O’s are intent on returning to contention next year.  One plus for Duquette is that he’ll have extra money to work with thanks to a number of big contracts coming off the books.  Between guaranteed deals ($66.95MM) and projected arbitration figures ($55.1MM), the O’s have roughly $122MM committed to 11 players in 2018, and they still have six more expected contributors (Dylan Bundy, Trey Mancini, Mychal Givens, Miguel Castro, Richard Bleier and Donnie Hart) on pre-arb deals.  That works out to 17 players for approximately $125MM, so if the Orioles look to match their $164.3MM payroll from Opening Day 2017, Duquette has around $39MM in spending capacity.

Let’s start with the rotation, as the Orioles are looking to add two new starters to slot alongside Bundy and Kevin Gausman.  Youngsters Castro and Gabriel Ynoa have been cited as rotation candidates, so let’s pencil in one of that duo (or maybe Alec Asher, Chris Lee, or Tanner Scott) for one of the three open spots.  You could also see a veteran in the mix as a low-cost depth signing, potentially even a familiar face.  While it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Baltimore move on entirely from the veteran quartet of Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez, Wade Miley and Jeremy Hellickson (combined fWAR in 2017: -0.3), I could see the O’s bringing back Tillman as a nod to his long-time status as a reliable innings-eater prior to his disastrous 2017 season.

Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM contract was the largest deal the O’s have ever handed out to a pitcher, and since Jimenez failed to produce in three of those four years in Baltimore, it’s fair to wonder if owner Peter Angelos will ever again be convinced to make such an investment in a free agent arm.  Given Duquette’s recent comparison of this winter’s pitching search to the 2011-12 offseason (when the club signed Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez), one would suspect that the O’s will indeed eschew big spending on pitching and rather seek out more modestly-priced options.

Duquette mentioned that left-handed starters were a priority, so names like Jason Vargas, Jaime Garcia, C.C. Sabathia or Miley stand out as potential targets.  Other mid-tier pitchers like Tyler Chatwood, Andrew Cashner, Jhoulys Chacin, Trevor Cahill, or old friend Gonzalez are also available.  A Jimenez-sized commitment wouldn’t be necessary to sign any of these arms.  That said, several have significant injury histories, which will surely be of concern to a franchise that puts particular emphasis on pitcher health. Baltimore could also look to the major foreign professional leagues for a veteran, as it has quite a few times in the recent past (see, e.g., Chen, Tsuyoshi Wada, Suk-min Yoon, Hyun Soo Kim, and Logan Ondrusek).  Japanese superstar Shohei Otani is the primary potential target, though he’d fit quite well on just about every team in baseball and we haven’t heard of the O’s being connected to him in particular. More likely, perhaps, the club could look at some of the other players that are under consideration for a move stateside after quality performances abroad, such as former big leaguer Miles Mikolas.

Duquette has frequently waited until later in the offseason to make notable moves during his Orioles tenure, so he could again be patient to see if any of these pitchers’ markets fails to develop, in order to swoop in for a bargain signing in February. It’s still possible, of course, that the organization could be more aggressive than usual — especially if Duquette feels his job is on the line and/or Angelos authorizes a different approach to take advantage of the remaining window of the club’s current core.  The new rules regarding free agents who have rejected qualifying offers could also provide a wrinkle, as teams no longer have to surrender first-round draft picks for such signings.  Losing international bonus money is hardly a deterrent to a team like Baltimore that doesn’t seem to care about the int’l market, so the Orioles could potentially be more willing than usual to spend on free agents.

Adding some big names and showing a long-term desire to contend could also help entice Machado into a long-term extension.  Machado’s future is one of the major subplots of this Orioles offseason, as the star third baseman is on pace to land a $300MM+ contract in the ensuing winter (even in the wake of a somewhat disappointing 2017 season).  As we’ve seen with Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Darren O’Day in recent years, the Orioles have been willing to spend big to re-sign their own talent, though a Machado contract would be in another stratosphere of financial commitment.

The $161MM Davis contract is already looking questionable just two seasons into a seven-year deal, so it remains to be seen if the O’s are even willing to take another dive into the spending deep end.  Jones is also the only one of the aforementioned re-signed quartet that was extended prior to actually reaching free agency, and the wait-and-see tactic probably won’t work with Machado given the large amount of interest he is expected to generate from some of the game’s biggest spenders.  Of course, Machado himself may want to wait and see what happens with the Orioles’ front office and manager situations before locking himself into the team for a decade or more.

One option that isn’t on the table is a trade of either Machado or Britton.  An injury-plagued season and a projected $12.2MM price tag would’ve limited Britton’s trade value anyway.  Brach will again be a popular figure in trade talks, and it could make some sense for the Orioles to move one of their increasingly-expensive bullpen arms to free up a bit more payroll space.  Britton’s health may make Brach too valuable for the O’s to move, though the team has shown a willingness to trade from its bullpen depth in the past (i.e. the Jim Johnson trade in 2013), plus some of the young pitchers that fall out of the rotation mix could be used as relievers.

Baltimore is definitely in need of some left-handed bats to balance out a heavily righty-swinging lineup, though they’re is pretty set at most positions around the diamond.  Right field and catcher are the only true question marks since Seth Smith is unlikely to return and Welington Castillo is likely to decline his player option in search of a multi-year deal elsewhere.  The O’s could decide that top prospect Chance Sisco is ready for regular big league action and platoon him with Caleb Joseph behind the plate, though a veteran could also be signed on a one-year stopgap deal if Sisco needs more time in the minors.

Right field could also theoretically be addressed internally, if Jones was to be moved over from center.  Over the last two seasons, Jones ranks within the bottom six of all qualified players in baseball in terms of UZR/150 (-12.1) and DRS (-22).  If Jones is open to a position shift, Baltimore could then sign a left-handed hitting center fielder — Jon Jay or Jarrod Dyson seem like good fits — to a short-term deal until top prospect Austin Hays is ready for regular action.  Hays has already made his MLB debut and could be argued as a candidate for the 2018 lineup already, though since he has yet to play at the Triple-A level, it would be an aggressive move for a would-be contender to rely on such an unseasoned player out of the gates.

If Jones stays in center, then free agents Jay Bruce and Curtis Granderson stand out as left-handed bats that could represent options.  Granderson would require a shorter deal than Bruce, who is six years younger and will probably be looking for at least a four-year contract.

Beyond free agents, the Orioles could also fill their holes through trades, though dealing prospects seems unlikely given Baltimore’s less-than-overwhelming farm system and upcoming need for new core talent in the majors.  A more inventive solution could be found in using some of that extra payroll space to take on a larger starting pitching or outfield contract from a rebuilding team.

While the Orioles might like to deal away some of their own larger contractual commitments, that’s likely easier said than done. Davis’s contract is one of the most problematic in all of baseball. Trumbo, meanwhile, is coming off a sub-replacement year and is owed $25MM through 2019, so the O’s could have to eat some money to deal him, or take on another highly-paid player coming off a poor season.  Moving Trumbo would greatly increase roster flexibility, freeing up the DH position and opening a 25-man roster spot for a player with more defensive value, but at this point the Orioles will likely need to hang on to him and hope for the best.

The Orioles are a fascinating team to watch this offseason, as they possess a fair amount of payroll and roster flexibility for a team that is ostensibly in its last ride with this core group of talent.  The emergence of Jonathan Schoop and Mancini as big lineup threats certainly provided a needed boost that offset down years from Davis and Trumbo, and provided hope that the O’s may not be as far away from contention as their last-place finish would indicate.  Still, without some creativity in fixing the pitching staff, Baltimore’s longstanding rotation problems threaten to spoil another season.

Minor MLB Transactions: 10/8/17

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Here are the latest minor league moves from around the game, with the most recent transactions at the top of the post…

  • The Indians outrighted right-hander Joe Colon to Triple-A Columbus, per a team announcement.  Colon was designated for assignment earlier this week.  The righty made 28 relief appearances for Columbus this season before being suspended on July 1 for a PED violation; this was the second PED suspension of Colon’s career, as he missed 50 games in 2016 following his initial violation.  Colon, a 12th-round pick for Cleveland in the 2009 draft, has a 3.44 ERA over 568 1/3 career innings in the Tribe’s minor league system, and he pitched 10 innings for the big league club in 2016.

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