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Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

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The Diamondbacks followed up their surprise run to the NLDS in 2017 by leading the way in the NL West for much of 2018, though an ugly late-season fade (11-24 over their last 35 games) left them with just an 82-80 record.  Now, with the D’Backs facing an already-tight payroll situation and the likely departure of some major free agents, the team could appears to be at a crossroads.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Contract Options

  • Yasmany Tomas, OF: $32.5MM player option for the 2019-20 seasons ($15.MM in 2019, $17MM in 2020)
  • Paul Goldschmidt, 1B: $14.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout)

Free Agents

[Diamondbacks Offseason Depth Chart | Diamondbacks Payroll Information]

The D’Backs spent a club-record $131.56MM on payroll last season, and they’d approach that figure again in 2019 on returning salaries and arbitration numbers alone.  Since Paul Goldschmidt’s club option and Yasmany Tomas’s player option are both virtual locks to be exercised, there’ll be roughly $77.4MM in guaranteed money on the books for next year’s payroll. The Snakes will have to decide whether to dole out a projected $51.125MM owed to a whopping 14-player arbitration class.

Keeping all those players would put Arizona over the $128MM mark, leaving the team ill-equipped to re-sign their two biggest free agents.  Patrick Corbin will be one of the most highly sought-after players on the open market this winter, while A.J. Pollock also projects for a solid multi-year deal, even if he has battled injuries over the last few seasons. Finding suitable replacements at a palatable salary level would likely mean giving up precious young talent in trade.

Whether or not the Snakes view themselves as near-term contenders, then, some paring of arb-eligible players seems likely. Judicious non-tendering might just create enough room to retain a second-tier option like Clay Buchholz or Eduardo Escobar. For instance, $9.6MM could be saved by parting ways with Shelby Miller, Chris Owings, and John Ryan Murphy. It’s possible the D’Backs could be forced to sell low by trading notable arb-eligibles like Jake Lamb, Steven Souza Jr., or Brad Boxberger. All three players are in that unwelcome gray area of perhaps being too valuable to non-tender, yet lacking in trade value in the wake of disappointing seasons. Lamb and Souza at least come with future control rights via arbitration, increasing their value to Arizona. In the case of Boxberger, who struggled down the stretch and is entering his walk year, it could be that he’ll be dangled in trades in advance of the non-tender deadline.

Suffice to say, the Diamondbacks are in a tight spot, and GM Mike Hazen may now be facing the rebuild that many pundits expected to come when he was first hired two years ago.  The general manager has already said that the team will first look to make some trades, and try to “be creative” when it comes to formulating next year’s roster. While a full teardown doesn’t appear to be in the cards just yet, some reshuffling of the deck, at a minimum, seems likely.

Let’s break down the two choices facing the Diamondbacks, beginning with the straight-forward total rebuild option.  In this scenario, you’d see the team shop virtually all of their most valued short-term assets (i.e. Goldschmidt, Robbie Ray, David Peralta, Archie Bradley and more) in order to add some much-needed depth to a farm system whose best prospects may be a few years away.  Trading Greinke would be the most obvious way to alleviate the payroll crunch, though his contact is so hefty that the D’Backs might still need to eat some money to facilitate a trade, despite Greinke pitching like one of baseball’s best starters over the last two years. On the other hand, it’s arguable he isn’t owed that much more than he’d be worth in free agency. Some clubs may prefer that three-year pact to a bidding war for Corbin or Clayton Kershaw.

Given the number of quality players on the roster, the D’Backs could shave a lot of financial obligations and also recoup enough big league-ready young talent to hope to return to contention as early as 2021.  The Diamondbacks’ solid roster, however, is also the reason why a “creative” solution might be more palatable to Hazen and company than entering into a full rebuild this offseason.  An argument can certainly be made that the Snakes could aim to contend next season while they still have Goldschmidt — who could also still be an offseason extension target — and then pivot to becoming sellers at the trade deadline if things don’t work out. In that case, the club would be prepared to start the rebuild next winter by selling off the players who are still controlled through 2020 (such as Ray, Peralta, Souza, and Taijuan Walker, assuming Walker recovers well from Tommy John surgery).

The alternative to a sell-off, then, would be strategically carving out some payroll space while still aiming to compete next season.  There are no shortage of possibilities about how the Diamondbacks could try to do this, though obviously it’d be a difficult proposition to truly stay competitive without creating further long-term problems.  It also doesn’t help matters that the D’Backs don’t have a ton of MLB-ready youngsters capable of stepping into spots left open by traded players — the likes of Ildemaro Vargas, Kevin Cron, or Kevin Medrano will probably be on the big league roster at some point in 2019, though can’t be expected to be play regular roles on a contender.

Speculation has already begun about a potential Goldschmidt trade, and there’s no shortage of pain in trading away a face-of-the-franchise player who has hit at a borderline Cooperstown-level pace for virtually his entire career.  As painful as it would be to deal the star first baseman, however, it would also be the most boldly pragmatic move Hazen could make.  Goldschmidt is only controlled through 2019, he’d net easily the biggest trade return of any veteran asset on the roster, and there are several other first base options available in trades or in free agency who could at least partially replicate Goldschmidt’s production.  This is just my speculation, but if the D’Backs can find a trade partner with enough payroll space, they could move both Goldschmidt and Tomas in the same deal, taking a fairly light prospect return for the sake of getting Tomas’s albatross contract off the books.  This would create a ton of additional payroll flexibility, though the team would have to have a clear strategy in mind to reinvest the money wisely — not only to boost the 2019 outlook but also to avoid unwanted long-term obligations.

It’d be an awfully bold strategy, to be sure, but moving Goldschmidt could help Arizona address several other holes around the roster.  Center field is the most obvious area with Pollock’s likely departure, as Jarrod Dyson is more suited as bench depth than as a viable everyday option.  The D’Backs are also hoping that Souza and Lamb can rebound from injury-shortened seasons so that right field and third base can be solidified, though I’d expect the team to pursue some type of right-handed hitting utility infield depth anyway to account for Lamb’s struggles against southpaws.  Re-signing Daniel Descalso would be a boost, as Descalso was a valuable asset filling in for Lamb at the hot corner last year, and also sharing time with Ketel Marte at second base.

Arizona has been only a modest player in free agency during Hazen’s regime, so even re-signing a player like Escobar would require a bigger dive into the open market than the club has been willing to make for the last two offseasons.  The 29-year-old will merit a solid multi-year commitment as he comes off the best season of his career, though it wouldn’t be a bank-breaking price tag, and Escobar does offer more versatility as a switch-hitter and a player capable of filling in at multiple infield positions.  Even if the D’Backs did prefer to utilize Escobar primarily as a third baseman again, he could represent enough of an upgrade over Lamb that the team could take the plunge.

Elsewhere around the diamond, Arizona will hope that Marte can continue to progress at the plate after posting a career-best 104 wRC+ in 2018.  Defensive standout Nick Ahmed will likely remain as the everyday shortstop, and the D’Backs will probably try to take another glove-first approach at catcher, as the Athletic’s Zach Buchanan recently argued that Jeff Mathis was the best positional fit of any of the team’s free agents.  Mathis and Alex Avila were by some measures baseball’s best defensive tandem behind the plate, though if the veteran Mathis can’t be re-signed, the D’Backs could look into adding a catcher with a bit more offensive pop.

Dyson brings enough pluses as a defender and baserunner that the Diamondbacks could use him as the left-handed hitting half of a center field platoon, which would leave Arizona only looking for a righty bat to share time (a free agent like Cameron Maybin would be a good fit in this scenario).  Alternatively, Peralta could be moved into center field, though Peralta probably projects best as a corner outfielder.  The D’Backs might also not want shift Peralta again since, after being installed as the everyday left fielder last season, he delivered the best year of his career, hitting .293/.352/.516 with 30 homers over 614 PA.

Peralta and Ray are the Diamondbacks’ top trade chips if they balk at dealing Goldschmidt, or if Greinke’s contract prevents them from finding a trade partner.  These two are less likely to be dealt, in my opinion, since losing either would drastically weaken a position that is already taking a hit.  Losing both Pollock and Peralta would be a huge blow to the outfield, while the rotation would suffer from losing Ray when Corbin and Buchholz could depart.

Greinke, Ray, and Zack Godley are the only sure bets in the rotation as things stand, with Miller (if he isn’t non-tendered), Matt Koch, and Matt Andriese looking like the top candidates for the final two spots.  Walker will also hopefully re-enter the picture at midseason upon his recovery from Tommy John surgery, Braden Shipley is Triple-A depth, and top prospects Jon Duplantier and Taylor Widener could also be ready later in the season.

There’s certainly room here for Buchholz to return, as the veteran proved to be one of the year’s best minor league signings.  Health is always a question with Buchholz, and his season was prematurely ended by a flexor mass strain in his throwing elbow, though this latest injury could actually work in Arizona’s favor if the team wanted to retain him.  Buchholz’s asking price could fall into a palatable range for the Diamondbacks if other teams are scared off by the elbow problem, and the D’Backs certainly are the most familiar of anyone with Buchholz’s health status.  If Buchholz doesn’t return, the Snakes could look at other low-cost veteran arms to compete for a starting job, or consider using the bullpen and a Rays-style “opener” to address a rotation spot.

Speaking of the pen, the closer’s job is up for grabs after Boxberger’s struggles at limiting walks and homers cost him the role down the stretch.  It’s possible the Diamondbacks could forego a full-time closer altogether, as they adopted a committee approach in September upon removing Boxberger from the job, though I would guess they might bring in an inexpensive veteran reliever with closing experience to provide added depth.  Names like Sergio Romo or former D’Back Fernando Rodney might be fits in this regard on the free agent market.  Arizona could also stand to add a bit of extra left-handed depth, though the team already has an overall solid group of relievers.

As per Hazen, the Diamondbacks have several organizational meetings planned in the coming weeks, and if the club will indeed gauge the trade market first, we may have to wait until the Winter Meetings in December before we get a true sense of the Snakes’ approach for the offseason.  Whether the D’Backs become baseball’s most popular seller or instead attempt to perform a tough balancing act, Arizona is poised to have a fascinating offseason of potentially pivotal importance to the franchise’s outlook.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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In one of the most fascinating seasons in recent memory, the Rays overhauled their roster, rid themselves of virtually all major financial commitments, experimented with a new way of how to view a “starting pitcher”…and were all the better on the field for it.  The Rays shocked baseball with a 90-win season, defying the preseason belief in some quarters that they’d be one of the league’s worst teams.  Instead, Tampa will now look to augment an already-talented core group with a few more pieces that can get the club back into the playoffs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Kevin Kiermaier, CF: $44MM through 2022 (includes $2.5MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)

Arbitration Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

[Tampa Bay Rays depth chart | Tampa Bay Rays payroll outlook]

After going into fire-sale mode last winter, the Rays continued to unload veteran names throughout the 2018 season, ultimately sending Alex Colome, Denard Span, Brad Miller, Matt Andriese, Nathan Eovaldi, Wilson Ramos, Adeiny Hechavarria, and Chris Archer out of town in a series of trades.  It was the Archer deal, completed on deadline day, that really seemed to mark an end of an era in Rays baseball, as Tampa finally dealt its long-time top starter and firmly looked ahead to the future.

One could hardly have guessed, however, that the “future” would come so soon.  Tampa’s 54-53 record on July 31 was already enough of a surprise for a team widely predicted to be a non-contender, yet the Rays went into overdrive over the final two months, posting a 36-19 mark in August and September that allowed the team to reach the 90-win plateau for just the sixth time in franchise history.

Almost all of the core group that contributed to that late-season hot streak will be returning in 2019.  Matt Duffy, Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, and Jake Bauers currently project as the starting infield, with Daniel Robertson and Brandon Lowe providing utility depth.  Robertson (who was hampered by injuries last year) could very well push Duffy or Adames for regular duty at third base or shortstop, while prospects Christian Arroyo and Nathaniel Lowe could be in the mix for playing time.  Wendle’s breakout year as a super-utility weapon can also put him and Lowe in the corner outfield mix, as they’ll join Austin Meadows as the backup choices behind Tommy Pham, Kevin Kiermaier, and Mallex Smith.

Of course, recently-extended skipper Kevin Cash will have plenty of opportunity to mix and match in search of favorable match-ups. And it seems likely that the front office braintrust, led by GM Erik Neander and senior baseball ops VP Chaim Bloom, isn’t quite done tinkering with this mix. Just how they’ll approach the offseason isn’t easy to guess from the outside, but it stands to reason they’ll both target some areas of need and explore opportunities to achieve value.

One area that seems ripe for some change is the catching position. Michael Perez has the inside track on at least a share of the regular role behind the dish, though the team is likely to acquire a veteran to compete with Nick Ciuffo for the right to work as Perez’s platoon partner or backup.  A right-handed hitting catcher could be a better fit, as both Perez and Ciuffo hit from the left side.

The Tampa Bay brass will have some decisions to make at first base. Ji-Man Choi exploded after joining the Rays in a minor midseason deal with Milwaukee, posting an .877 OPS over 189 plate appearances in a Tampa Bay uniform.  While Choi has played first base and left field in his brief MLB career, the Rays used him almost exclusively as a designated hitter and against right-handed pitching, so there’s room on the bench for another first-base capable righty bat to spell either Choi or Bauers.  It’s possible Tampa could simply rotate its internal options through the DH spot to keep everyone fresh, or further take advantage of the versatility offered by Wendle or Robertson by giving either the occasional start at first base.

The other option would be to pursue a relatively low-cost first baseman in free agency or on the trade market, or simply to retain C.J. Cron in arbitration.  Though Cron hit .253/.323/.493 with a career-high 30 homers over 560 PA last season, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, suggested that Cron will probably be dealt or even non-tendered.  It could be that Cron’s somewhat one-dimensional offensive game and ability to only play one position make him an odd fit on a club that ended up prioritizing lineup flexibility and almost eschewing power (27th of 30 teams in home runs) to create a more diverse offense based around contact hitting, speed, and reaching base.  (While Choi has many of the same limitations as Cron, Choi is also a pre-arb player with five years of team control.)

There’s also the fact that Cron’s projected arbitration salary is $5.2MM, so the Rays may believe they can find similar production in a power-heavy league for a lower price.  Depending on how the rest of the first base market shakes out, Tampa Bay could also non-tender Cron and then try to re-sign him for less money.  This may seem like a tough fate for Cron in the wake of a 30-homer, 122 wRC+ season, but as we’ve seen over the last two offseasons, teams simply haven’t been willing to pay much for non-elite first base/DH bats.

After unloading so many of their more expensive players who were already under contract or in line for higher arbitration numbers, this will be the first offseason in a while where payroll isn’t necessarily of the utmost concern for the Rays front office.  Kiermaier is the only player guaranteed money in 2019 and beyond, putting the Rays on pace for a 2019 payroll not even half the size of their $76.39MM payroll from Opening Day 2018.  This “allows greater flexibility” for the Rays in their offseason acquisitions, as Neander told Topkin and other reporters, though I wouldn’t expect Tampa Bay to spend anywhere close to $76MM in player salaries.  You could see the Rays spread some money around on a few players rather than a singular big splash, and maybe save a bit more for midseason additions if necessary.

More room could be created if a trade partner could be found for Kiermaier, who is owed $44MM through 2022 (this figure includes the $2.5MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023) and may be expendable since Smith and Meadows can both play center field.  The Rays would be selling low on Kiermaier in the wake of another injury-plagued year for the defensive standout, as he was limited to 88 games due to thumb surgery and then a hairline fracture in his foot in the season’s final week.

Kiermaier has played in just 291 of a possible 486 games over the last three seasons, and his hitting numbers took a drop in 2018 after climbing above average (108 wRC+) in 2016-17.  A healthy Kiermaier who delivers even moderate offense along with his elite glovework can be a major plus in any lineup, so it could be that the Rays hang onto the 28-year-old into next season to see if he can help them contend, or to let him rebuild value for a potential swap.

Whether Kiermaier is one of the players on the move or not, expect Neander and company to again heavily focus on the trade market for the bulk of their winter activity.  (The Mariners and Diamondbacks, in particular, should be on alert for calls from a 727 or 813 area code.)  Some deals will be necessary just to create some 40-man roster space, as the Rays are facing a crunch to protect enough of their prospects before the Rule 5 draft, though Tampa could also make trade chips of some of these well-regarded minor leaguers plus any Major League roster members that the team doesn’t see as long-term pieces.

It will be particularly interesting to see how the Rays address their rotation, such as it is, as the team has already said that the “opener” strategy will again be deployed in 2019.  The Rays’ unconventional use of a short reliever to start a game’s first inning or two before giving way to a long reliever (a.k.a. the “headliner”) generated much controversy around baseball — some praised the creativity, while others questioned whether the strategy would prove too taxing on a bullpen over the long haul, in addition to criticism that Tampa was ruining the starting pitcher’s status within the game.

Given the results, however, the Rays would’ve probably faced more criticism if they abandoned what proved to be a winning method.  The Rays posted the sixth-lowest team ERA in baseball, and their strong finishes in various fielding-independent pitching metrics (fifth in FIP, seventh in SIERA, ninth in xFIP) and a .297 wOBA-against that almost directly matched their .300 xwOBA-against indicated that the performance wasn’t built on good fortune.

One big reason the Rays were able to succeed with their openers, of course, was the fact that they had a more traditional ace develop in the form of AL Cy Young Award contender Blake Snell.  Attempting to sign Snell to an extension would mean negotiating with him after a breakout season, though he and his reps will surely have at least some interest in locking in some earnings and protecting against the risk that comes with the job. Certainly, the Rays have proven able in the past to strike such deals when they wish to, a practice that has saved the club loads of money in the long run and ultimately facilitated some notable trades.  Even if Snell doesn’t quite match his 2018 production going forward, a young starter signed to a reasonable contract can still be quite a valuable asset, as we saw with the strong haul that Tampa Bay received for Archer.

Going into 2019, Snell and Tyler Glasnow are the only projected full-time starters in the rotation.  Yonny Chirinos and Ryan Yarbrough were the most successful of the headliners and could be fully stretched out to be proper starters, or the Rays could simply continue to use them in their 2018 roles.  Top pitching prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon should be available by midseason as they return from Tommy John surgery, though it seems likely that they’ll be used as headliners in order to ease them back into regular pitching duty.  Such a long relief job might also be the best use of young right-hander Jake Faria, who is trying to rebound from a disappointing and injury-shortened season.

Normally, a low-payroll team with just two set starters would seem like an ideal candidate to acquire a veteran arm to eat innings.  If the opener strategy has taught us anything, however, it’s that such expenditures might not be worth it for a team looking to save their dollars — why pay a veteran even a modest $5MM or $6MM per season to chew up innings once every five games when a shrewdly-deployed bullpen can do the same at a fraction of the cost, and with likely better results?  If anything, the Rays could look to sign a veteran arm coming off a rough season or an injury with an eye towards turning them into a headliner to rebuild their value, as it did recently with Eovaldi.

The Rays could also spend on their bullpen by bringing in more swingmen capable of tossing multiple innings, or a veteran with closing experience to replace free agent Sergio Romo.  Jose Alvarado earned an increasing number of save opportunities down the stretch and is probably the Rays’ top in-house choice to take over the closer’s job, though hard-throwing Ryne Stanek (the most frequent of the openers, “starting” 29 games) has also often been tabbed a closer of the future. Given these varying needs, Trevor Rosenthal could be an interesting target. Not only is he likely to present some value upside as a Tommy John rehabber, but he has plenty of high-leverage experience and a well-documented desire to be given a chance to throw more innings.

Of course, it’s probably not safe to assume that the Rays will use a traditional closer rather than mix and match their ninth inning plans based on matchups.  After all, nothing can really be ruled out when it comes to the Rays and data-driven strategies.  The team already took care of one bit of business by extending Cash, ensuring that the Rays’ creativity pipeline will continue to flow as usual within both the front office and the dugout.  It could be that opponents will start to figure out the Rays’ tricks over the course of a full season, though the team’s deep wealth of multi-positional players and multi-role pitchers make them a difficult team to prepare against.

The success of this in-season rebuild on the fly has put the Rays in position to compete for a wild card spot in 2019, or perhaps even mount a challenge to the Red Sox and Yankees for AL East supremacy if everything absolutely breaks right.  As eye-opening as the Rays’ tactics were in 2018, it will be just as interesting to see how they take the next step forward this winter.

NL West Notes: Dodgers, Braun, Rockies, Padres

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With the Dodgers and Brewers facing off in the NLCS, MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy looks back to 2016 at the potential blockbuster deal between the two clubs that would’ve sent Ryan Braun to Los Angeles.  The rebuilding Brew Crew were exploring ways to get Braun’s big contract off the books, and the Dodgers were a natural trade partner, given their large payroll and the fact that they were one of six teams that Braun (a Southern California native) didn’t have on his no-trade list.  The most oft-cited version of the trade would’ve been Braun dealt to L.A. with Yasiel Puig, Brandon McCarthy, and two prospects going to the Brewers.  According to multiple sources, McCalvy reports that the Dodgers walked away from talks within the last half-hour before the August 31st deadline.

Imagining Braun as a Dodger (and, not to be overlooked, Puig as a Brewer) makes for a very interesting alternate-reality scenario, especially given the domino effect that that trade would’ve created on the Brewers’ and Dodgers’ subsequent moves over the last two seasons.  The deal will particularly loom large should either Braun or Puig end up being a deciding factor in the final three-plus games of the NLCS.

Some more from the NL West…

  • The Rockies head into the offseason with a lot of position player questions, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post writes, perhaps most notably at second base and in the outfield, as DJ LeMahieu, Gerardo Parra, and Carlos Gonzalez are all free agents.  The Rockies might want to move on to younger outfield options than Parra or Gonzalez, while “there’s no indication Colorado will attempt to re-sign” LeMahieu, which could open the door for prospects Garrett Hampson or Brendan Rodgers at the keystone.  The team needs to upgrade its middling offense in general, with catcher being another position of need in that regard.  Due to Jake McGee’s struggles, Saunders also predicts the Rockies will have to add another left-handed reliever to the bullpen.
  • With the Padres facing some tough decisions about 40-man roster placements in advance of December’s Rule 5 draft, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune breaks down the current players on the roster and the several minor league candidates to see who is likeliest to make the eventual 40-man slate.  Quite a bit of this conjecture is up in the air, of course, as Acee notes that “there is almost no player the Padres wouldn’t at least consider in trade offerings,” so even the Major League roster could look quite different by the time the Rule 5 draft rolls around.
  • If you feel like weighing in on a question about one of the NL West’s biggest stars, vote in this MLBTR Poll about whether or not the Diamondbacks will trade Paul Goldschmidt this offseason.

NL East Notes: Marlins, Callaway, Twins, Braves

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Some rumblings from around the NL East…

  • In the latest Marlins organizational news, the team hired Adrian Lorenzo as a special assistant in scouting and baseball operations, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via Twitter).  Lorenzo had previously been working as assistant director of international scouting for the Red Sox.  The Marlins also let go of pro scouting director Jim Cuthbert earlier this week, according to the Miami Herald’s Clark Spencer (Twitter link), ending Cuthbert’s three-year tenure with the franchise.
  • These changes and the recent overhaul of the Marlins’ coaching staff are just the latest in an extensive front office reshuffle since Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman took over the team, and since Jeter hired Gary Denbo as Miami’s VP of player development and scouting.  While it isn’t unusual for new owners to put their personal stamp on a team, “people in baseball are just mystified by Denbo’s actions,” according to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, and “morale in that organization, I’m told, is at an all-time low.”
  • Cafardo also discusses the Twins’ managerial search in his column, writing that Mets manager Mickey Callaway “would have been high on the Twins’ list if he were available.”  Callaway and Minnesota chief baseball officer Derek Falvey are familiar with each other from their shared time with the Indians, when Callaway was pitching coach and Falvey was working in the front office.  Of course, the chance still exists that Callaway could become available, as the next Mets GM will reportedly have the authority to make a managerial change.  Since the Twins’ search for a manager is already well under way, however, one would think the club wouldn’t wait under the Mets have made a hire and decided on Callaway’s fate.  Callaway’s first season with the Mets was a rocky one, though he is still under contract for two more years (plus a club option for the 2021 season).
  • Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos is scheduled to meet with the media on Monday morning, with The Athletic’s David O’Brien (Twitter link) expecting that the team will announce a new contract for manager Brian Snitker and possibly some coaching changes.  Snitker’s previous deal is up after the World Series is over, though the team was expected to offer him another contract and it wouldn’t be surprising if negotiations went rather quickly.  After all, Snitker did just lead the Braves to a somewhat surprising NL East title, and Snitker is a Braves lifer with over 40 years of experience in Atlanta’s organization.
  • Also from O’Brien (Twitter links), he thinks the Braves will probably have somewhere in the range of $30MM-$35MM to spend this winter.  The team has just over $90.8MM on the books for 2019 for current contracts, projected arbitration salaries, and minimum salaries for pre-arb players, give or take a few million less if Atlanta parts ways with any players on the non-tender bubble.  The Braves have never had an Opening Day payroll higher than their $122.6MM figure from 2017 since Liberty Media has owned the team, so one would figure they wouldn’t go too far beyond that number.  The club could also save some cash for midseason additions or, as O’Brien notes, use some money to sign in-house players to extensions.  Regardless, the Braves’ offseason promises to be a very interesting one, as the team makes it next step towards long-term contention now that the rebuild phase seems to be over.

Cardinals Notes: Wainwright, Clapp, Pitching

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It was on this day in 1985 that Jack Buck asked Cardinals fans to “Go crazy, folks! Go crazy!” in the wake of Ozzie Smith’s walkoff homer to win Game Five of the NLCS.  The Wizard Of Oz wasn’t known for his power, of course, though the defensive legend’s only career postseason home run (and, remarkably, the switch-hitting Smith’s first career homer as a left-handed batter) could hardly have come at a better time.  The victory gave the Cards a 3-2 lead in the series, and they clinched the National League pennant two days later at Dodger Stadium.

Here’s some modern-day buzz out of St. Louis…

  • The official details of Adam Wainwright’s new contract with the Cardinals won’t be known until after the World Series, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Wainwright will have to officially file for free agency before the deal is finalized, as league rules stipulate that a player currently on a team’s roster cannot re-sign for less than a 20% pay cut from their previous salary, and Wainwright’s new deal will obviously be far less than the $19.5MM he earned last year, in the final season of his five-year, $97.5MM contract.  His new deal is just a one-year pact, as Wainwright tells Goold that “I’m going to treat every year from here like it’s my last and go year to year.  I’m going to have a great time and maybe a year from now we’re having the same conversation or we’re having a retirement conversation.”  After being greatly limited by injuries in three of the last four seasons, Wainwright was greatly encouraged by how his elbow felt in some late-season appearances, and now feels ready for whatever role the team wants him to fill in 2019.  It’s clear that Wainwright is hoping to spend his entire baseball career in a Cardinals uniform, telling Goold “I wanted to do all I could to keep the door open with St. Louis. I was trying not to think about the possibility of going somewhere else. I didn’t want to go anywhere else.”
  • Stubby Clapp, manager of the Cardinals’ Triple-A affiliate in Memphis, has widely been mentioned as a possible candidate to be the next Blue Jays manager, though Clapp tells Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, “I haven’t heard anything from Toronto.  It’s been all rumors.”  Before taking over in Memphis in the 2016-17 offseason, Clapp spent the previous four seasons as a hitting coach in the Jays’ minor league system, so he has some ties to the organization.  The Windsor, Ontario native would also be the Jays’ first Canadian-born manager.  Even Clapp’s current duties carry some Blue Jays connections, as star prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is playing on the team Clapp is managing in the Arizona Fall League.  “If there’s an opportunity to get an interview or something like that, great, I’d be excited to do something like that,” Clapp said.  “Right now, I’m a Cardinal, that’s my focus and that’s where my mind is, and on taking care of these guys in Arizona.”
  • While the Cards have some uncertainty about their 2019 rotation, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch doesn’t consider starting pitching to be a top priority for the offseason.  Miles Mikolas, Jack Flaherty, and Carlos Martinez look to have rotation jobs locked up for next year, while Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Luke Weaver, Austin Gomber, Daniel Poncedeleon, and John Gant are all in the mix for the final two slots.  While this group carries a lot of injury and experience questions, Frederickson figures there’s enough depth on hand that the Cardinals don’t need to add another arm unless a clear top-of-the-rotation pitcher like Patrick Corbin or Dallas Keuchel can be had at a reasonable price.  The team’s more pressing needs are a left-handed bat for the lineup and more bullpen depth, the latter being particularly important given how successful teams around baseball are increasingly relying on strong bullpens to carry them into (and through) the postseason.

Padres Release Jose Torres

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Oct. 10: The Padres released Torres after he unsurprisingly cleared waivers earlier this morning, MLBTR has learned.

Oct. 4: The Padres have designated left-hander Jose Torres for assignment, as per MLB.com’s official transactions listing.  Torres’ roster status had to be addressed once his 100-game suspension under the MLB/MLBPA joint domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy was up at season’s end.

Torres didn’t pitch in 2018 after he was charged with multiple criminal offenses during the offseason, stemming from a domestic disturbance incident where Torres was accused of pointing a gun at a woman with whom he was involved in a domestic relationship.  Torres’ charges included assault with a deadly weapon, intimidation, and criminal damage, as well as a charge for possession of marijuana.  He reportedly plead guilty to those charges in March. The Padres placed Torres on their restricted list in February, and Major League Baseball issued Torres with the 100-game suspension in June.

Torres, 25, made his big league debut in 2016 and then posted a 4.21 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 3.94 K/BB rate over 68 1/3 innings in 2017.  With the Padres facing a 40-man roster crunch this winter as some of their best prospects become eligible for the Rule 5 draft, it isn’t surprising that Torres would be DFA’d rather than restored to the 40-man.  Torres could be outrighted to the minors if isn’t claimed or acquired during his 10-day DFA period, or it’s possible the Padres could simply release him altogether given the severity of his off-the-field situation.

Quick Hits: Counsell, Brantley, Britton, Yankees, O’s

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After being shut out in the first two games of the NLDS, the Braves not only posted a crooked number on the scoreboard in Game Three, but staved off elimination entirely with a 6-5 win over the Dodgers.  Ronald Acuna continued to make history, as the 20-year-old rookie sensation become the youngest player ever to hit a grand slam in postseason action.  Game Four is set for Monday in Atlanta at 3:30pm CT.

As we look forward to three playoff games tomorrow, here are some items from three teams still active in the postseason…

  • The Brewers made Craig Counsell’s continued employment as manager a requirement for any general manager candidate in 2015, owner Mark Attanasio told Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.  “We interviewed seven or eight candidates, and I told all of them that Craig was going to be the manager,” Attanasio said.  “So, that would have disqualified a candidate if they had a problem with that….That was a precondition to the job.”  Counsell has paid off his employer’s faith by leading the Brewers into the NLCS, and quickly impressing observers along the way — eventual new GM David Stearns, the Brewers’ roster, and fans in Counsell’s home state of Wisconsin.
  • Two shoulder surgeries and a right ankle injury limited Michael Brantley to just 101 total games in 2016 and 2017, limiting his productivity and sidelining him for all of the Indians’ run to Game Seven of the 2016 World Series.  That long recovery period has made this season all the more special for the outfielder, who rebounded to hit .309/.364/.468 and 17 homers over 631 plate appearances and 143 games while helping the Tribe reach the postseason.  “When you go through basically almost a two-year rehab, you don’t always know that you’re going to come back,” Brantley told MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.  “Every day that I’m there to be with my teammates, that I’m healthy enough to be in that lineup, where I can joke around and know that I’m going out to left field to play with these guys, I’m very appreciative.  I don’t take it for granted.”  Monday, however, could mark Brantley’s last game in a Cleveland uniform if the Tribe is swept by the Astros, as Brantley will be a free agent at season’s end.
  • “There’s a gigantic difference in how we use analytics here compared to Baltimore,” Yankees reliever Zach Britton told Fangraphs’ David Laurila.  After coming to New York from the Orioles in a trade deadline swap, Britton was presented with lots of personally-focused data.  “I’d never been exposed to that amount of information,” Britton said.  “And it’s not just ’Here’s a stack of stuff to look over.’ …. I don’t want to get into specifics, but some of it is how my ball moves, both my sinker and my slider, compared to different hitters’ swings. It kind of opens your eyes to things you maybe didn’t think of when you didn’t have that information.”  The Orioles are known to be looking for a more analytically-minded figure in their new general manager, though the team has a long way to go to catch up to the Yankees, who are known to have one of baseball’s best information departments.  If Britton’s comments sound similar to Justin Verlander’s reaction to joining the Astros last season, it isn’t a surprise, as Britton noted that “If you look at the teams in the postseason, most are well-known for their analytics departments, especially the Astros.”

NL West Notes: Rockies, Evans, Hernandez, Freese

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The Rockies’ season came to a disappointing end tonight, as the Brewers swept them out of the NLDS in three games.  While Colorado can be proud of two straight years of postseason baseball, Nolan Arenado’s future may be the biggest issue looming over the team as its offseason begins.  There has been speculation that the Rox could consider trading the superstar third baseman rather than let him walk as a free agent once his contract is up after the 2019 season, assuming an extension can’t be reached.  (Though the chances of an offseason trade seem doubtful, as surely the Rockies must be figuring on contending again in 2019.)  For his part, Arenado told The Athletic’s Nick Groke (Twitter links) and other reporters that offseason contract discussions are less important to his winter activities than his family’s Wiffle Ball competition, saying bluntly “I expect to be here next season. The future is bright here.”

Here’s more from around the NL West…

  • Former Giants GM Bobby Evans tells the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo that he would like to be considered for the other open general manager jobs around baseball, though since he still has 15 months remaining on his contract in San Francisco, he is happy to take on whatever role assigned by the Giants’ next baseball operations head.  Evans would also be understanding if the new GM would prefer if Evans left the organization.  The team’s decision to remove Evans from his former post caught him somewhat off-guard: “I think you’re always surprised when something like this happens because we’ve all worked so closely together for so long and we had three World Series championships together.”  Nevertheless, Evans said “the Giants were fantastic to me for 25 years,” and he defended his front office from the perception that it was somewhat behind in analytical implementation, noting that the team was already in the process of shifting from a traditional scouting-heavy approach to more analytics usage.
  • Enrique Hernandez has become the definition of a super-utilityman for the Dodgers, with The Athletic’s Eno Sarris noting (subscription required) that Hernandez’s 118 wRC+ from the 2018 season is the highest of any player who has ever played at least eight different positions in a season.  “If it wasn’t for my defense and the versatility, I’d probably have been stuck in the minors,” Hernandez said.  “At first, it was what got me to the big leagues. After that, it’s what kept me here.”  Hernandez hit .256/.336/.470 with 21 homers over 462 PA, while playing everywhere except catcher and making at least one start at every position except first base.  His bat really began to heat up after adopting a slight step backwards during his swing in May, allowing Hernandez to produce against both left-handed and right-handed pitching, and making him a starter at second base for Los Angeles in all three games of the NLDS.
  • After joining the Dodgers in a trade from the Pirates at the August 31 deadline, David Freese has made a big contribution both on the field and in the clubhouse, the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett writes.  Justin Turner praised Freese as a veteran influence to the Dodgers’ younger players, while manager Dave Roberts appreciated how Freese was open to a part-time role.  Freese “didn’t try to force his way into a leadership role but really bought into what we were doing as far as sacrificing,” Roberts said.  “That minimized the noise.  He was walking the walk.  He just has a way of commanding a room and players respect it.”  As a part-time first baseman and mostly facing left-handed pitching, Freese hit a whopping .385/.489/.641 over 47 PA after coming to L.A.

Poll: Which Is The Most Intriguing General Manager Job?

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After recently polling MLBTR’s readership about which of the six open managerial positions had the most to offer, it only follows that we ask the same question about the three general manager vacancies.

For simplicity’s sake, let’s use “general manager” in this sense as the person in charge of a team’s baseball operations department, even if that official title could be something different (i.e. president of baseball ops) on a particular team.  If you’re a hypothetical executive who has multiple GM offers presented to them, deciding which job to take demands a big-picture view.  Which franchise has the most to offer a new GM in terms of resources, which range from everything from player payroll to front office staffing?  Would a GM have full control of baseball ops, or is there another rung above them on the organizational ladder?  Does a team already have some good players in place and is expecting to win, or is a rebuild under way, or will a rebuild be under way in the near future?

With all these factors (and more) in mind, let’s take a look at the three open GM jobs…

Mets: As disappointing as New York’s 2018 season was, this is still a team that boasts one of the game’s best pitching staffs, plus some intriguing young building blocks in Brandon Nimmo, Amed Rosario, and a healthy Michael Conforto.  If incumbent veterans like Yoenis Cespedes, Jay Bruce, and Todd Frazier can avoid the DL and regain some of their old productivity, the team’s lackluster lineup will already get a huge boost, not even factoring in what external additions can bring into the fold.  There is certainly opportunity for quick improvement in 2019, and since the team doesn’t have any payroll money guaranteed beyond the 2020 season, there’s plenty of room for extending in-house stars and adding some other notable salaries in trades or free agents.

That’s the good news about the Mets job, though as any follower of New York’s sports media could tell you, there’s also quite a bit of bad news.  It’s still unknown how much financial flexibility the Mets actually have, as while team payroll has cracked the $150MM mark in each of the last two seasons, that’s still a modest figure for a club that plays in the New York market.  There’s also the open question about how much autonomy a general manager truly has within the organization, given how owners Fred and Jeff Wilpon are so often accused of taking a heavy hand with their input in the baseball operations department.  For instance, it’s unusual that an incoming GM would be inheriting three influence senior members of a team’s current front office staff, and there is uncertainty if a new GM would really be allowed to fire John Ricco, J.P. Riccardi, and/or Omar Minaya unless ownership allows it.  Manager Mickey Callaway is also staying on for 2019, so a new general manager wouldn’t even able to select their own preferred voice in the dugout.  It also might not help that the Wilpons themselves are reportedly looking for different things in a general manager, as Jeff prefers to hire a younger GM with an analytics background, while Fred wants a more experienced name from a scouting and personnel background.

Giants: The main pro and the main con of the San Francisco job amount to the same thing — this is a team that expects to win.  Even if 2019 may be a season more focused on something of a rebuild-on-the-fly, there is little doubt that the franchise wants a turn-around after two straight losing seasons.  To this end, a new GM will have money to spend, as the Giants haven’t afraid of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in the past, and are now free for more big spending after (barely) getting payroll under the threshold this season to reset their escalating tax payment figure to zero.  There’s also no small amount of appeal in taking over one of baseball’s top-tier, most historically-rich franchises, and a team that has three World Series championships within the last decade.

The downside, of course, is that taking over such a team means taking on a lot of pressure.  There may be more of a case that the Giants need a rebuild rather than a reload, given how many expensive veteran contracts are on the books.  (And how more veteran additions could be coming, if the Giants stick to their logic from last offseason.)  Madison Bumgarner, the Giants’ best asset, is also scheduled for free agency after the 2019 season, so the contention window may be particularly short unless Bumgarner can be extended, though the team is at least open to listening to a GM that would suggest Bumgarner be traded.

There is also some question of autonomy within the chain of command, as long-time executive Brian Sabean is staying on in an upper-management role, plus Bruce Bochy is being retained as manager.  Team CEO Larry Baer has said, however, that the new baseball operations head will be reporting to him, and will have the freedom add new faces to the front office mix.  This could be a situation where the “new GM” is really a president of baseball operations, with a general manager also hired in a secondary role to handle day-to-day duties.

Orioles: The cleanest slate of the three jobs, the Orioles are undergoing a change in direction at the very top of the organization, as John and Louis Angelos take over ownership duties from their father, Peter.  It remains to be seen how the Angelos brothers’ style will differ from that of Peter Angelos’ style, though there has already been some indication that the Orioles are adopting a more standard approach to baseball operations (such as a new willingness to spend on international players).  It also isn’t clear if a new GM will have the full autonomy that the team’s recent media release claims, or if incumbent VP of baseball operations Brady Anderson will still have a major voice in the decision-making process.

This all being said, while it might take some years for a general manager to remake the Mets or Giants in their own image, the new Orioles GM can put their big stamp on the organization as early as this offseason.  Rather than navigate pre-existing payroll hurdles or expectations of contention, the new Orioles only has to focus on rebuilding for the next several years.  As low as the Orioles sunk in 2018, the lure of a total rebuild could be enticing to many candidates — Blue Jays baseball ops VP Ben Cherington, for one, would seemingly only leave his position in Toronto “to build an organization from the ground up,” according to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.  A new general manager also has something of a head start on the rebuilding process due to the number of young talents acquired by former baseball operations executive VP Dan Duquette in the trade deadline deals of Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Kevin Gausman, Darren O’Day, Brad Brach, and Jonathan Schoop.

(poll link for app users)

Quick Hits: Mets, Watson, Ng, Twins, Rowson, Cubs

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Few days on the sports calendar are better than the day when all four Division Series have games scheduled, and today was no exception.  We saw a pair of shutouts in both NLDS matchups, as the Brewers took a 2-0 series lead over the Rockies after a 4-0 win, while the Dodgers blanked the Braves on eight innings of two-hit ball from Clayton Kershaw.  (Incredibly, the Braves are still looking for their first run in the series as they head back to Atlanta in a 2-0 hole.)  The Astros began their World Series title defense in strong fashion with a 7-2 rout of the Indians in Game 1, while the Red Sox jumped out to an early lead and then held on to win a 5-4 nail-biter to win the first game of their showdown with the Yankees.

Here’s more from around the baseball world as we look forward to more ALDS action tomorrow…

  • The Mets will interview Nationals special assistant De Jon Watson as part of their GM search on Wednesday, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports (via Twitter).  Still just 52 years old, Watson has a wealth of front office experience dating back to the early 90’s, working as a scout, scouting director, assistant GM (with the Dodgers) and senior VP of baseball operations (with the Diamondbacks) before spending the last two seasons in Washington’s front office.
  • Watson joins Gary LaRocque and Doug Melvin as known candidates reportedly set for interviews with the Mets in the coming days, and Mike Puma of the New York Post adds that Kim Ng is also expected to be interviewed this week.  Ng, a former assistant GM for the Dodgers and Yankees, was recently mentioned as a potential candidate.
  • While the Mets are lining up interviews, Puma notes that some candidates have declined to be involved due to the twin perceptions that the next GM won’t have full autonomy under the Wilpon family, and that the team isn’t open to embracing analytics.  For instance, Jeff Wilpon has “indicated” the new GM will have the power to replace returning members of the front office braintrust (i.e. Omar Minaya, John Ricco, J.P. Ricciardi), though “there is heavy skepticism throughout the industry” that this would be the case.  As past reports have indicated, Fred Wilpon would prefer hiring a GM from a scouting and player development background, with one source telling Puma that “Fred would go out of his mind” dealing with an analytically-inclined GM.  Though the elder Wilpon will ultimately make the hire, however, he won’t enter the process until the final list of candidates has been determined, as Jeff Wilpon and Ricco will conduct the first round of interviews.
  • The Twins interviewed hitting coach James Rowson for their managerial vacancy today, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.  The team also has interest in Mark DeRosa and David Ross, a pair of former players-turned-TV analysts who have often been mentioned as potential future managers.  DeRosa could be on the Rangers’ radar as well this winter, and he has interviewed with the Mets and Marlins for past managerial openings in recent years.  None of the trio has any previous pro experience as a manager, as Rowson has previously only worked as a hitting coach (with the Twins and Cubs) and minor league hitting coordinator (with the Cubs and Yankees).
  • The Cubs project to be very deep in starting pitching options in 2019, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes, with the obvious caveat that several of those arms will have to rebound from injury-filled or just ineffective seasons.  “We’re not looking to get rid of starting pitchers,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said.  “We’re looking to have as much depth as possible so we can withstand multiple injuries.”  As the team is expected to exercise their club option on Cole Hamels, Chicago will have Hamels, Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, swingman Mike Montgomery, Yu Darvish looking to get healthy, Tyler Chatwood looking to improve on his brutal 2018 numbers, and Drew Smyly in his first full season recovered from Tommy John surgery.  It makes for quite a surplus if all those arms are healthy and productive, though that would be a problem the Cubs would certainly be happy to face if it occurs.

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