Veteran third bagger Josh Donaldson is an unsurprisingly popular target through this stage of the market development. The interest has been so robust that he may even secure a four-year guarantee. We’ve seen the suggestion bandied about in recent days, but MLB.com’s Mark Bowman now reports (via Twitter) that it’s becoming a “growing expectation” that Donaldson will get the fourth campaign.
That length of contract wouldn’t be surprising at all for a player of Donaldson’s stature … were it not for the fact that he just turned 34 yesterday. Ben Zobrist did secure a four-year term a few years back, but more recent free agents have faced greater headwinds in securing promised cash into their late-thirties. And Donaldson seems all but certain to command a much loftier annual salary than Zobrist did.
As it turns out, though, interest in Donaldson is quite robust. While numerous clubs are still grappling over top third baseman Anthony Rendon, only one will get him. Donaldson is far senior to Rendon but was even better at his peak. While the former is no longer a perennial MVP candidate, he easily outperformed the one-year, $23MM bounceback contract he took last season with the Braves and seems a good bet to deliver big production for years to come.
Donaldson hit a ton in his 659 plate appearances in 2019, turning in a .259/.379/.521 slash with 37 homers. He did all that while providing value in the field, with Defensive Runs Saved taking a particularly bullish view. As important was the fact that he played that extensively at all. Donaldson had appeared in 165 contests over the prior two seasons but went the distance in 2019.
Entering the winter, MLBTR predicted that Donaldson would secure a $75MM guarantee over three seasons. If he’s able to get that fourth guaranteed year, it may be at a somewhat lesser single-season rate of pay. But it’s also now conceivable he could threaten nine figures in his next contract.
So everyone just saved their money for the last two years to go crazy this year or the mid markets waited for the Yankees and Red Sox of the world to get into somewhat of a financial bind (Cole excluded) so they could afford to out spend then for once.
Or they’re just all sheep and follow what the first one into the market does. Don’t overlook how much richer the owners all are after the 2018 tax cut.
Or Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel were the only players who didn’t have a good offseason last year and that’s only because they wanted too much money considering teams had already figured out they weren’t very good anymore.
Aw Josh Donaldson what a stub! A’s Billy Beane traded him from the Cubs as a catcher and trusted him to guard third base and Donaldson turned to be a monster.
This is probably true, as Donaldson looks to be the kind of player who will still be good when he is 37. My guess is that he will probably sign very soon after Rendon signs.
See you, Josh. No more rain in Atlanta, wish you all the best.
I agree, it was fun while it lasted, but we don’t need four years of watch your body fall apart. Let’s go get an OF bat that would replace the offensive production of JD and let Riley mature at 3B.
We saw enough of Reilly last year.
If it takes 4 years to get him to return to Atlanta, go 4 years please! We need him back. I think he’ll be one of those guys, like Beltre, who can hold his own into his late 30s. I’m for the gamble.
I can’t believe how different this year is compared to last year. Players are getting good offers… multiple offers. This is the way it should be. I wonder why last year teams were so cheap?
While average players are being released and signed for peanuts.
The players last off-season were not as good as this free agent class
Look at the FA list last year compared to this year and look at the top 10 (Per MLBTR)
Harper/Machado both got 300 mill or more. They probably wanted more so that is why negotiations dragged out
Corbin signed for a lot of money with the Nationals
4th was Keuchel declining fastball velocity is more of a 3/4 starter than a TOR
5th Kimbrel declining velocity and other concerns. I think Cubs regret this one already
6th Grandal Had multi-year offer but signed a one year deal and bet on himself. Turned out great
7th Evoldai injured I think Red Sox regret this one
8th Pollack injury concerns and was injured last year as well
9th Happ is not that good
10th Brantley great player when healthy and had injury concerns. He stayed healthy last year and was great but health
Last years FA class was just not that good. The top two guys probably asked close to 350-400mill total and it took them a while to realize they were not going to get it. Otherwise looking back a lot of teams were correct in terms of not pursuing some of those players because there were already worrying signs. Also if Donaldson was not coming off an injury plagued year in Toronto he would of got a huge 4-5 year deal.
Compare it to this years FA class which is just better and deeper. Harper/Machado would probably both be at the top of this years class and corbin right behind Strasburg.
Cole
Rendon
Strasburg
Wheeler
Donaldson
Bumgarner
Grandal
Castellanos
Ryu
Odorizzi
Last year the sports media pushed Machado and Harper as “superstars”. They quoted statistics and looked at highlight films. They felt the players were worth 10 year contracts, and when those weren’t immediately forthcoming they attacked the owners as being cheap and conspirators.
Meanwhile, FO’s knew that both players had major holes in their games, didn’t play consistently, and expected special treatment – from the owner(s) to the FO to the coaches and the manager. Most franchises stayed away.
Ultimately they were signed by 2 FO’s that had highly-publicized rebuilds that sports media loved. Those FO’s have pretty much failed, developing very few players in the rebuild, and switched to handing out huge, long-term contracts to veterans having a decent year – which they’re still doing.
In short, what the majority of the sports media, players agents, and desperate owners saw and what quality FO people, coaches / managers, and knowledgeable fans saw were diametrically opposed.
To Mr. Harper’s credit, he started making adjustments in 2019 and improved his fundamental play. Still not there, but getting closer.
Meh, not really. Easily the most overrated player of his generation.
Still, guys like Gibson and Lyles have gotten paid on multi year deals which would’ve never happened last year.
Philly will get him, thy made bold statements earlier about trying to spend big and go over the luxury tax because of it, but I think this is a cheaper alternative. And they can torment the rest on the NL east with him like the braves did last year. lol
What a way to screw up the market ♂️
Not a Donaldson fan but much respect for his game all these years. At four years, however, a very unwise signing.
Donalson is going to crater.
Donaldson and Wheeler are the two time bombs on the market, the guys to avoid at all cost.
Check out Puxatawney Phil over here
Donaldson isn’t going to crater. The dude is a professional hitter. When/if the time comes that he needs to adjust, he will.
If you’re scared of signing a guy coming off the season he had, you may as well sit FA out. If I were an owner, or GM, my team would be all in on him.
Well I’d frankly throw most free agents into that category.
Not my money but no way he would get more than 2 years with a 3rd year buyout. He’s gonna be 34 and sure he hits the long ball but only batted .254 this prior season. Save your money
are you REALLY using batting average as a stat to determine if he had a good year or not?
Lol 1992 likes this
Batting Average is the most worthless stat there is.
Especially when you’re only batting .259
Figured that was coming after Moose’s deal. He’s made a lot of money, but I don’t blame him. Whatever contract he signs will be the last time anyone will ever pay him in excess of $20 million dollars a year to do anything. I just can’t see AA willingly take on that burden at the back end…his regime as Atlanta’s GM has been very calculated and methodical.
Ugh. That is going to hurt in yr 4 and maybe yr 3
Most likely from the “Bringer of Rain” to the “Bringer of Pain” to Braves fan across America. Like freeman he was nonexistent when it mattered most again though.
ATL sorely needs another guy like acuna in Rendon who can step up to the moment. Freddie has had some big moments over his career but when he slumps he absolutely disappears. His injury during this postseason was detrimental to the team as I always loved having big Matt Adams as his backup, talk about a piece to have for a championship.
Markakis has been a nice stalwart in RF for a few years but he is truly holding this lineup back with no pop IMHO. Wish they woulda made that move to trade for castellanos last offseason, and bid farewell to Kakes.
This rearview mirror is getting pretty big the last few years.
Castellanos has no business playing in the field at all.
Not so sure the Cubs minded the offset of his bat and are wanting him back. I have not personally got to watch him on a nightly basis or his so-called defensive incapabilities but after his cubs acquisition I sure seemed to see his name on the bottom line on nightly basis with top 5 like offensive categories.
That’s a terrifying contract if he gets the fourth year.
No way I give that guy 4 years. Great player but no way he plays at a high level for 4 years.
The top of the market has always got paid even the last two years. It’s the middle down that hasn’t. The vets that use to pull in pretty good contracts have had to settle for less the last few years. We’ll see if that changes. I don’t think it will.
Lots of agents putting out hype to tease the market. Like many have said, 4 years is too much of a stretch. Nat’s could swoop in and land him if they’ve run out of $ for Rendon to come back. Braves better get someone or there will be a giant hole in the middle of the lineup…
Yeah, Donaldson was fun to watch this past season, but I don’t want to make an $80-90 million dice roll on him. You could easily be sitting by in a year or two paying this guy $20 million plus per year to watch him rot away, and screw your club over in the process. No way……….I’m out.
Kevin48478483 is out!
three NL East teams need a third basemen………loser will have to pay a high price in prospects for Kris Bryant !….if Rendon signs with the Dodgers……then two teams will bid for Bryant…..Donaldson signs with the Rangers……..then Braves, Nats & Phillies will bid on Bryant…..they all need someone to protect their cleanup hitter.
Rangers want Rendon, with Donaldson as a fallback.
The Braves don’t have a cleanup hitter right now. That was Donaldson. Currently Markakis is slated there lll
AA needs to pick up the phone & see what it would take to get Hanigar & Seager.
Had a feeling the Braves needed to be the ones to jump on Moose.
Gonna need somebody to bat cleanup behind Freddie.
Have a feeling Camargo will be at 3rd & Ozuna will be signed to play LF & bat cleanup.
Totally agree steeler, was hoping the Braves would sign moose as well and ozuna would be a God send in the lineup if camargo indeed mans 3b with Riley as insurance of injury behind ozuna, camargo, or Freddie.
Can’t even think of dealing Rileys bat at this moment in time. He just needs to take the step that Heyward never could, fingers crossed.
I don’t think AA ever considered Moose. Only way he would’ve been signed by the Braves is if a RH power hitting outfielder was picked up first. No chance AA was gonna go into the season with a LH cleanup hitter behind Freddie.
Big “No thank you” to Seager. Sign Donaldson, save the prospects, win a World Series. That needs to be the plan.
If it’s 4 years, 100 million, you can count the Braves out. They won’t do it, they just won’t. And this market is insane right now…. so if they are gonna upgrade 3B they will have to do it via trade. And idk who would be reasonable there. KB would be awesome, but we need a longer term answer and I just don’t know who that is.
Riley … idk what you’re doing this offseason but you better be ready to take 5 steps forward zero steps back
For an NL team, it could be 4 yrs/$90MM-$100MM with the 4th year as a team option w/$5-10MM buyout. Basically a 3 year, $80-90 MM guarantee. An AL team may be willing to fully guarantee a 4th year because he could DH more and more as he ages.
I just ate too many burritos
3/45 max. Option for a 4th year
Are you joking?! That’s ridiculously low.
Lol who would sign a 34 year old to a 4 year deal? I guess I’ll answer my own question since for some reason a 31 year old pitcher gets 7 years. Strasburg is great right now, but why sign him to 7 years?
I might take him at 4 years for $80 million. That’s only about $5 million more for the 4th year and JD still gets to make $20M per. If he is looking for a 4 year $100 million deal I have to agree with you guys. Let him walk and give Camargo another shot until Riley is ready.
Ugh, no… Not Camargo as a starter at 3B. If they go that route, the bullpen was a waste of money, because they’ll score about 2 runs a game.
It’s got to be an A.L. team then. The DH will benefit him greatly. The Rangers are right there.
For the Braves, perhaps it’s time to prepare a trade package for Turner, in the event the Dodgers sign Rendon?
Four years would be insane.
Zobrist had so much more versatility. Maybe four if the first two are really front loaded and his amenable to playing 1st when time comes.
Think about this for a moment. Chipper Jones got $12M, $12M $10M & $14m through ages 35-38. If Donaldson is just chasing the money then sure he’s going to get paid by someone. You’d have to say Donaldson’s glove work is excellent, his bat is below Jones on the grounds that Jones could switch, not to mention that Jones was a far more solid hitter. If the last two years of Donaldson were more incentive based with a decent base salary then I would be all for signing him, but when you put it all in perspective then more than likely he’s going to be overpaid.
Whoever signs him for 4 years will regret it immediately. Shades of Tulowitski
Hearing Bryant for Fried & prospect is done deal waiting on the results of the hearing on his grievance. If Bryant is free after 1 Chicago has a list to choose & if Atlanta gets him for 2 yrs it has a different list to choose.
Would be another piece off the 40 man roster going back as well. Inciarte is a possibility but wasn’t sure. Also heard Touki, Wilson & Wright’s name as possibilities. But from what I gather it sounds done.
And where did you hear this?
Well this explains why Texas isn’t all over him then.
Prolly right…they will do whatever it takes to sign Rendon. Keeping my fingers crossed!
Do it Phillies
4 years for $75MM-$80MM is ok for an American League team like the Rangers. He can play 2 to 3 years at 3B and then move to 1B or DH.
I’ve been a huge fan of Donaldson – but I would go three years max unless the AAV was really good for taking that 4th year.