With MLBTR's Top 50 Free Agents list hitting your screens Monday evening, the MLB Mailbag is back. This week's mailbag gets into Plan B for the Yankees if they lose Juan Soto, the Gerrit Cole contract situation, the Reds and Nick Martinez, the Cubs' response to Cody Bellinger staying, the Dodgers' approach to free agent pitching, fits for Anthony Santander, the Mets' payroll, and much more.
Mike asks:
So two of the MLBTR writers pick Soto to leave the Yankees and sign with the Mets. Certainly could happen. What struck me though is I didn't see the writers compensating that loss with heavier spending on other free agents by the Yankees. Seems unlikely. Let's assume Soto leaves. What would be a credible backup plan to cover 1B, an open OF spot and either 3B or 2B as Chisholm could cover one or the other?
A different Mike asks:
What do you think the Yankees pivot to when the Dodgers sign Soto?
Frankly, I find Soto slightly more likely to sign with the Mets than the Yankees, but I picked the Yankees because I had nitpicks about most of the major alternate free agents I could put on the Yankees to compensate. Ah, the annual struggle of making 50 team picks that all make sense. Beyond the Yankees and Mets, I certainly won't rule out the Dodgers or "the field" on Soto. But the question of the Yankees' Plan B came up often in our free agent deliberations.
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“Instead, the Mets will likely be run in a Dodgers-like way, with targeted strikes for superstar free agents, short-term deals for mid-tier free agents, trades for top talent, and an emphasis on turning freely available players into good ones through player development.”
in re: “trades for top talent”, I wonder if/when the Mets will do this. They’ve been extremely reluctant to part with any notable prospect since the PCA-for-Baez trade 3 1/2 years ago, and that was under a different front office (and was also a disaster of a trade). Cohen’s plan, which he’s been transparent about, has always been to spend on the MLB club to keep them competitive while they build up the farm to keep a supply of new talent coming up to the big leagues.
So I guess the question is, at what point is the farm sufficiently “built” to allow for trading away key prospects? I don’t think they’re there yet. A) they still only have a mid-tier farm, and with guys like Acuña (and next year, maybe Drew Gilbert and Brandon Sproat) graduating to the bigs, they need to add even more to the system. B) the MLB club is not quite at the point where supplementing the roster with a blockbuster trade makes sense, imo. True, they just made the NLCS and were one of the best teams in baseball in the second half. But they have a lot of holes to fill at the moment due to the amount of FAs they have.
Maybe this changes in 2025. If they make a bunch of signings this offseason, if they come out and play great to start the season, if they draft well, and if they develop some more minor league talent, I could see them trading a top prospect or two at the 2025 trade deadline. But that’s a lot to shake right. I don’t really see it, though, until maybe next offseason.
Sorry for the amount of words here, haha.
I do think the mets farm is seen a bit above mid tier, but bc they have no 60+ prospects, they’re not top tier. But they do have a lot of 50+ quality depth, so they could make a trade of 3-4 of those guys to a team whose farm has little depth.
I smell a bigger trade coming this offseason – either one like what i just mentioned or one where they give a decent prospect but take on a large contract (i.e., a Sonny Gray type).
“I do think the mets farm is seen a bit above mid tier,”
Yeah, I agree. MLB.com has them 13th, Fangraphs 7th, Bleacher Report 15th, etc. A number of their prospects had down years (Vasil, Tidwell, Parada) or dealt with injuries (Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert). Positive side though was Sproat’s emergence, and both Williams and Gilbert seem to be healthy again. I also thought Parada hit better in the second half and expect him to take a step forward this year. Maybe by mid-2025 they’re a consensus top 10 farm.
Im curious to see how Benge progresses
BA released their new top 10 for the mets garm today… very interesting. Jesus Barz shot up to 3! Gilbert down to 9! Dont agree w that but they always have somewhat unique views
That’s interesting about Gilbert. After coming back from injury he still managed a .393 SLG despite a .237 BABIP at a level (AAA) that was new to him. I think he’ll be much improved this season. I’ll have to look at the BA thing because it sounds fun.
Yeah i actually think he’ll be a solid MLB player. Its their updated top 10 prospects for every team, and they made their way to the mets early.
Plan B for the Yanks could be Walker/ Alonzo first base, Bregman/ Adames at third and adding starter Sasaki from Japan. I also see them signing 2 relief pitchers.
I just don’t see how the Giants can NOT sign Willy Adames. He answers so many questions for SF (SS, middle-of-the order bat, young enough, good if not great glove.) It allows Fitzgerald to move to 2b, and if they sign someone like Paul Goldschmidt on a one or two year deal to play 1b (to share with Monty Ward), and Goldy can still contribute when Bryce Eldgridge makes the team mid-season.