The Padres have avoided arbitration with three-time batting champion Luis Arraez, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Arraez will earn $14MM in 2025, his final year of arbitration eligibility. A $14MM payday represents a nice raise for the infielder, who made $10.6MM in 2024, though it’s slightly less than his projected $14.6MM salary (per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).
The Padres acquired Arraez in a trade with the Marlins last May. Although he represented San Diego at the All-Star Game this past summer and finished the season with an NL-best .314 batting average, the 2024 season was a down year for Arraez. His .739 OPS and 109 wRC+ were well below his .829 OPS and 130 wRC+ from 2022-23. In addition, his defensive numbers were worse than ever. He managed to accrue -3 DRS and -6 OAA at first base and -3 DRS and -7 OAA and second base. Thus, the Padres ended up using him as their DH a good amount of the time, which only further decreased his overall value.
If Arraez can shore up his defense and get back to hitting like he did in 2022 and ’23, he will still be a bargain for San Diego at a $14MM salary. However, the Padres are thought to be trying to cut payroll this winter. According to RosterResource, their projected payroll for the 2025 season is $39MM higher than their final payroll at the end of 2024. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller is reportedly trying to bring the payroll down to somewhere in between its current projected figure and last year’s final tally. If Preller plans to reduce payroll and still make any additions this winter, he will almost certainly have to trade some of his more expensive veterans. Thus, Arraez’s name has popped up in trade rumors.
About a month ago, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported that the Padres had engaged in internal discussions about trading Arraez. It’s not hard to see why. His contract is more tradeable than the longer-term deals belonging to Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jake Cronenworth, Joe Musgrove, or Yu Darvish. Dylan Cease surely has more trade value than Arraez, but for the same reasons, the Padres might be more likely to want to keep him around. Cease is projected to earn $13.7MM in arbitration, a similar number to Arraez’s $14MM salary. So, trading Cease would free up a similar amount of payroll as trading Arraez, but it would mean giving up a far more productive player.
Yet, the only team to be formally linked to Arraez this winter is the Yankees, and it’s unclear how interested New York really is. ESPN’s Jeff Passan recently wrote that the Yankees have “continued to discuss” Arraez with the Padres, but the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and SNY’s Andy Martino have pushed back on that connection. Martino reports that the Yankees “briefly” checked in on Arraez in November and “have not engaged with the Padres” on the subject since.
To further complicate matters, Bob Nightengale of USA Today is now reporting that the Padres “plan to keep” Arraez after all. That’s somewhat surprising if the team is still serious about trimming payroll, but perhaps the Padres decided teams around the league were undervaluing Arraez after his down year in 2024. That might be the right decision. After all, if he can get back to being the hitter he was from 2022-23, the Padres would have a hard time replacing that kind of production for less than $14MM.
Luis Arraez likes ketchup on chicago dogs
Whoa – Whoa…. thems is fighting words
@choof
If you add anything else to a hot dog, you’ve essentially destroyed the meal. Might as well throw it in the garbage. Chicago dog looks like a disaster.
you must be from Iowa- All i can say is that I’m sorry for you
Iowa’s gonna host the 250th birthday of America. Can’t go wrong with that. Why isn’t Chicago or Washington going to host it? Must not be great places that people want to celebrate a birthday.
Is this heaven?
No, it’s Iowa
Brotha I don’t love Chicago either don’t get me wrong, Iowa has it’s charms but I wouldn’t want to live there
Luis Arraez listens to Creed
Luis Areaez watches Squid Games dubbed in Spanish
Luis Arraez kisses his chimichangas before taking a bite
Amazes me that he isn’t highly respected by the media and baseball nerds. Almost a guaranteed base runner every time he bats, may be light on power, but if your team is playing good behind him he should score 100 plus runs a year. He’s the Rod Carew of this generation, just a virtual hitting machine. I wish he played for Detroit, imagine having a .300 hitter again? Been years since we had that
He does one thing, he hits singles. He doesn’t walk, doesn’t have even doubles power, doesn’t run well and doesn’t have a position. “Baseball nerds” like players who show skills at more than one thing.
@ellis
Since 1950 work a minimum of 2,500 AB.
1-Gwynn
2-Ted Williams
3-Boggs
4-Carew
5-ARRAEZ
6-Musial
7-Puckett
8-Guerero Sr
9-Clemente
10-Helton
His bat avg fuels his OBP. I’ll take that.
KFCF, a single is worth roughly 40% more than a BB in creating runs overall. OBP being equal, I would much rather have the guy that gets there with hits than walks.
Over the last 3 seasons Arraez is tied for 11th in OBP and 26th in doubles. That has incredible value to me.
When I was coaching, I had two signs as you entered the dugout. One said, “Magic happens when you put the ball in play”, a quote from Augie Garrido. No one is better at avoiding a strike out and putting the ball in play than Luis Arraez
@web
I agree. Thus, I’d like to see him playing 2b in the Bronx next year.
And I would like to see him play 2B in San Diego next season. I don’t think either of us get our wish granted.
@ web SS
What was the other sign?
“Do not let what you cannot do interfere with what you can do.” – John Wooden
He was 30th in all of baseball with doubles. How many doubles does a guy have to hit for you to consider they have doubles power?
Ellis,
Arraez was top 30 in doubles last season and over the past 3 seasons and has a 4 DRS at 2B the past 3 seasons. That the Padres had two 2B better than him in Bogaerts and Cronenworth when they traded for him is not a knock on him at that position. He had a bad rookie season and has been above average since then at 2B.
If you are going to try to knock someone, at least know the facts. All your comment did is confirm that you are not a knowledgeable baseball fan.
@websoul
If you’re going to be condescending towards someone while citing stats, make sure you cite them properly, You’ve cut out his rookie season because it doesn’t suit your argument, cited seasons since then, but conveniently not highlighted the most recent season where he was -3 DRS at 2B, and moved off the position entirely – simply because it doesn’t suit your argument.
On top of that, you’re only looking at one metric. Outs Above Average has him at -33 for his career at 2B – 5 out of 6 seasons as a negative, and most recently -7 in only 339 innings last year.
If you are going to try and knock someone, don’t leave massive holes in your own argument. All I see here is someone measuring other people by their own limitations. That’s you.
I cut out his rookie season because it doesn’t represent how he plays now and its often an outlier for most players on defense. Look at Ozzie Smith’s rookie season.
Arraez played 42 games at 2B in 2024. Are you seriously going to try to quote that small of a sample size? That is why I used 3 seasons.
He wasn’t moved off the position because he was bad at it, he was moved because he was traded to a team with a much, much better player at the position. Bogaerts was there at the time of the trade. That you don’t realize that but are trying to throw shade says a lot about how much you want to be a hater but avoid facts.
If you are going to try to knock me, at least know what you are talking about. You have made your lack of knowledge of the game obvious.
Once again, you cite one stat – which even that doesn’t represent your case so well. Multiple other stats disagree with you, one of which I pointed out to you and you conveniently ignored.
I can throw a few more in if you like? Baseball Savant, who incorporate StatCast data to cut through people who make up their own narratives, has his arm in the 1st percentile (that’s dreadful, FYI). They have his range in the 13th percentile, not much better.
He is almost unanimously seen as one of the worst defenders in the sport – good on you for holding out and being in the very, very small percentage who think otherwise. It’s noble, but it doesn’t make it right.
I am definitely happy if the Padres want to keep throwing him a glove and trying to fake it out there – if they want to compete for a change, they should be making a different decision.
What other stats? Name them. Then tell us what they mean and why.
Statcast has Swanson’s arm strength in the 30th percentile. His overall defense is in 97th percentile.
Arraez arm strength was in the 12th percentile in 2024, not the 1st percentile. Guess what? 1B don’t make many throws and a DH doesn’t make any. That is where Arraez played most of his games. At 1B, when they do throw, most often it is a simple underhanded toss to the pitcher. If his demonstrated arm strength was higher, I would be worried.
Now if you had said range, you would be right. His range as measured by OAA is bad. -7 at 2B last year. That is still better than Jose Altuve and Jordan Westburg. Are they bad defensive players? Of course not. There is more to playing defense than range. That is why people that understand defense talk about DRS. It’s a complete measure of everything a player does at their position.
So he is not unanimously seen as one of the worst defenders. The Fielding Bible from Sports Info Solutions has him as just above average at 2B for his career. In 2023 when he played mostly 2B they had him at +4. I am going to go out on a limb and say that they know far more about the game than you do.
Soto is obviously an all-time great hitter. How can anyone possibly think otherwise?
@Baseb
A career .953 OPS says yes.
Rod Carew walked in 10% of his career plate appearances, stole more than 350 bases and hit 112 triples. The year Carew won his MVP, he hit .388/.449/.570. He played second base almost exclusively through age-30.
Arraez is an elite contact hitter, as Carew was, but he’s already more of a first baseman and has 30th percentile sprint speed. He does not share the remainder of Carew’s skill set.
That’s more a statement on how outrageously elite Carew was than a knock on Arraez — but the two aren’t really comparable outside of the 80-grade contact skills.
Agreed. Carew was an easy and obvious choice for the Hall of Fame. And Arraez is not.
@Hammerin
If he keeps hiring like he is and stays healthy, he will absolutely be in the HOF. Since he debuted, despite not becoming a regular until his 3rd year, the dude is 12th in hits.
Now compare them to equal points in their careers.
.316/.367/.416/.783 with 122 OPS+ for Carew
.323/.372/.418/.790 with a 118 OPS+ for Arraez
Carew was a horrible 2B. He was a -11 Total Fielding runs above average up to his age 27 season. Arraez is a +8 at 2B.
Carew is an obvious HOF. To the same point in their careers there is not as big of a difference as you are trying to make it seem. That MVP season for Carew was 4 years in the future after his age 27 season.
I also wonder how Arraez would have done playing his games on astroturf.
Noticed my post with their careers to equal points was deleted.
@Steve and @Hammering
I’m well educated as to his blemishes. As long as he’s hitting north of .300 and giving us 300 hits, an OBG north of .360 and healthy, then I’ll take it. Mlb in general, including the Yanks, are devoid of good contact hitters. My dream is Jazz will be the leadoff hitter and attempt to be a little more patient and get his OBP up to at least .350+ and have Arraez batting behind him followed by Judge or Belli. They’re great friends (Jazz/Arraez) and maybe they can be a spark plug at the top of the lineup.
1.0 WAR Seasons are expensive nowadays…
Yet he finished 18th in the MVP race. Shows how the WAR number isn’t there end all be all.
MLB teams pay a lot of money for DH-type guys that can’t field. That’s supposed to be part of being a baseball player, though. Could only imagine how much someone is going to get if they’re great a hitting and great a defense.
@BaseballClassic1985
That’s what I said.
@BaseballClassic1985
To a certain point, yes, I was referring to him but in general, MLB is paying a lot of essentially DHs.
Sure he was only top three for gold glove, led the the league in assists, putouts and fielding percentage for a right fielder.
You are certifiably insane if you believe Soto is a Top 3 defensive OFer, metsy. He does NOT pass the eye test, iykwim.
Gwynning, I didn’t say he was a top three outfielder. I listed his accolades from last year as a right fielder. He is not a bad right fielder . Acting like he is horrible is sour grapes.
I screamed about his defense last year when he robbed a homerun against the Mets and threw out a runner.
“Sure he was only top three for gold glove, led the the league in assists, putouts and fielding percentage for a right fielder.”
Sure sounds like you were defending his defensive prowess. He’s a terrible RFer and should be a DH only relatively soon. Zero sour grapes bro bro, I say this as an impartial scout!
That’s ridiculous. He’s not terrible. You definitely are not impartial. You would have been touting him as the best player in baseball if the Padres could have resigned him.
I watched Soto every day for a year and a half…he is a bad outfielder.
Even half his catches look shakey.
Ok metsy, whatever you say pal! Hahahaha
He is an adequate fielder but all teams need to score runs.
Midway- Soto or Arraez?
Shocker
Lot of money for a singles hitting DH.
Lou, he was 30th in doubles. He played DH because the Padres had Bogaerts at 2B and Cronenworth at 1B, not because of any deficiencies he has on defense. He has a 4 DRS over the last 3 seasons at 2B. That is better than average.
Let’s say he wins another 3-4 batting titles in his career but continues to be mediocre in all other aspects of the game. Is he a HOFer? I haven’t looked into it but I don’t think there are any guys with 5+ batting titles that aren’t in the hall.
Edit: I looked into it and Bill Madlock has the most batting titles (4) of any player not in the HOF.
@C-Daddy
It’s so subjective when it comes to the writers. Some of them have great memories of guys and others don’t like them because of the politics of a player. I think it’s a terrible manner of voting guys in but it’s been going on for so long, when do we put the breaks on letting writers vote guys in?
C-D
Luis Arraez is a 1B or DH. John Olerud did not even get 1% in Hall of Fame voting, no way Arraez deserves to make it as a singles-hitting 1B or DH.
Olerud deserved better imo, but he only had one batting title. To be clear, I am not advocating for Arraez to make the hall, I’m just wondering how many batting titles it would take despite his mediocre career WAR.
My guess:
He could have six or seven batting titles, and if he has a WAR under 50 for his career, he will not make the Hall of Fame unless he is remembered for some amazing post-season heroics.
I don’t think its batting titles, its probably total hits that matters most. For a pure singles/high average hitter to get in now on just that one tool they would probably need 3,000 hits or really close to it. I don’t see him getting there with being at 847 right now when he’ll be 28 next year. He does average 200 hits per 162 games played, but this means he would need to stay healthy and not experience any drop off in production for 11 more seasons (until he’s 39) to get to that benchmark.
Said differently, even if he has 7 batting titles all said and done, if he’s sitting on ~2,000 total hits its not going to happen.
Or he could eventually get in if he has people who like him or played with him or managed him on the Veterans Committee. Like how Baines and a bunch of other guys got in.
@Cnic
If he reaches 7 batting titles, he would be told 4th with Hornsby, Carew, and Boggs. Only Cobb (11) and Gwynn 8) would have more.
Arraez is a 2B that was blocked by Bogaerts and Cronenworth for the Padres.
Perhaps you have not see him try to play 2B recently, he looks awful out there.
I am going to say with certainty that you haven’t seen him play 2B recently. He only started 6 games at 2B for the Padres.
He had a 4 DRS in 2023, the last season he played 2B regularly. A 3 DRS at 2B in 2022.
@Mlb and @C-Dad
I think the Olerude vs. Arraez comparison begs context. The same way, no one is going to compare the amount of CG a pitcher in today’s game accumulates vs one from the pre-2000, is the same way you have to look at Olerude’s era from 1990-2005.vs today’s era for Arraez (2018-current). During O’s career, he batted .295 and 35 others (5,000 AB+) had a higher batting average than his .296. Among those ahead of him were Shannon Stewart, Brian Giles, and Jose Cirrilo. For Arraez, his era albeit short right now, from 2018 to current, only 5 guys have batting averages above .295, only 3 above .300 with Michael Brantley @ .306, Freeman @ .310 and Arrarz sitting on top at .323. When you factor him vs. the competition, he’s in an elite level from all others. If he stays healthy and continues to hit he will ABSSSSSSSOLUTELY be a relatively quick ballot HOF. Maybe but first or second but deffffffinetly sooner than later.
If he gets to 6-7 batting titles, he will be in the HOF.
Lot of people love discrediting Luis as a 1 war player. This ignores two basic facts, first that Luis had a torn ligament in his thumb for most of last season, hence the “down” numbers. The second that he had wars of 3.4, 4.2 and 4.9 in the previous 3 seasons.
@Moff_Nick
It’s honestly unfortunate that he has no speed. Guy would be a major threat as a top of the lineup guy with his ability to get on first, if he could steal more bases, teams would be up 1-0 in the first inning pretty much every game.
Max Muncy has a better on base percentage,0.358, than Luis Arraez in 2024, who was 0.346, and plays a more challenging position. Arraez is limited to 1B and DH. In 2024, Arraez had an OPS+ of 106. Any league average player deserves respect, but Arraez is overrated due to his batting avergae being high for someone with his OBP.
In 2022 and 23, Luis had an ops+ of 128. Hardly league average.
OPS+ does not take into account position. WAR does. In 2023, Arraez mostly played 2B. If he could still handle 2B well, he would be a very good asset. For the Padres, he played 61 out of 70 games at 1B.
You brought up ops+, not me
OPS+ measures your skill as a batter. Your defensive position doesn’t matter.
In 2023 Arraez was a +4 DRS at 2B. That was 10th best in baseball. Obviously, he can handle 2B.
For the Padres he played 61 of 117 games at 1B.
Strike 3. You are out.
Arraez is a 2B that was blocked by Bogaerts and Cronenworth for the Padres after the trade. Hime not playing 2B or even 1B had nothing to do with his defense and everything to do with the guys ahead of him on the depth chart.
He was mostly a 2B in Miami with 142 games out of 223 games played at that position.
He has a 4 DRS at 2B over the last 3 seasons with most of his games played at 2B. 225 of 441.
He had a torn thumb ligament in 2024 that kept him from hitting with more power. The 6 HR difference between 2023 and 2024 that turned into outs instead is the difference in him having a .333 BA, .365 OBP, .442 SLG, .807 OPS, and 126 OPS+.
Hit 40% more valuable than walks overall in creating runs. That he gets that high of an OBP with such a high percentage being hits makes him more valuable, not less.
We do appreciate you demonstrating that you don’t understand what is important in creating runs and winning baseball games.
No, let’s be fair, he’s below average defensively and that’s the truth.
@Mlb
Arraez isn’t great at any position. That being said, he can play 2b which is where the Yanks would likely play him. But in comparison to Arraez vs Muncy, Arraez has a OBP of .372 which is 20 points higher than Muncy.
Knicks
No one talks about Muncy as a HOF guy (nor should they) just because he walks like Votto. In 2024, Muncy, a power hitter, had a higher OBP than Arraez a singles hitter who does not walk a lot. Miami made a horrible move trading for Arraez and Arraez played poor defense at 2B. Dylan Cease is the much more valuable player to a Padres team that is a likely wild card contender, which was my point.
A walk is worth less than a hit in creating runs. Muncy is really good at drawing walks with a 15.4% rate. He also hit just .232 and struck out 26% of the time.
I will take the guy with the same OBP that almost never strikes out and gets his OBP through hits instead of walks. That guy’s OBP is worth more in creating runs.
Arraez played 4 DRS defense at 2B for the Marlins. That is well above average.
O for 3 again. Your batting average is sinking even lower than your man Muncy.
Guess we’ll see how Arraez does for the Padres in 2025. I for one am looking forward to a 27 year old (soon to be 28) three time batting champion at the top of the order for Padres after recuperating from the thumb surgery he had in the Fall. Also looking forward to Tatis and Machado driving him home for a boatload of runs this year. I was hoping Hyeseong Kim was going to sign with the Padres as putting him in the 9 hole right before Arraez comes to bat would have been very beneficial. C’est la vie on that and good on the Dodgers (barf) for signing him. 🙂
Maybe you can get Ha-Seong back instead of Hye-Seong. Just don’t know if he returns in April, May or June.
I held out some hope Ha-Seong would return to the Padres despite the “off” year results last season. I suppose it’s still possible if he really wanted to return. Maybe even a one year lower cost deal while he rehabs his shoulder and that allows him to reenter free agency in 2026. I think we’re all just unsure of what the team is willing to pay to fill the various holes in the lineup. I’m not holding my breath on HSK returning.
Padres apparently made offer to Profar, but not Kim. I think the Padres know the severity of the injury to his throwing shoulder.
Make no mistake, Uncle Leo…he is a bargain now.
Most of the time in the modern era, 200 hits means you score 95 or more runs.
Crazy that he’s one of the best pure hitters in baseball and he’s limited in his earning because of this stupid arbitration process