MLBTR Chat Transcript

Steve Adams

• Good afternoon! I’ll get going at the top of the hour, but feel free to start sending in questions ahead of time.
• Let’s get underway!

o-birds

• Will the Orioles be able to sign Gunnar before he becomes a free agent, knowing Boras is a players agent why do teams draft them knowing they will be difficult to sign when they become free agents? Thank you Steve 😊

Steve Adams

• I don’t see any real chance of a Henderson extension.Avoiding an agent in the draft seems pointless though. Very few players, regardless of representation, sign team-friendly extensions — relatively speaking, anyhow. And there are plenty of Boras guys who’ve signed long-term deals. The narrative is a bit overstated. Cooper Pratt just signed an eight-year deal before he even reached the majors, and he’s a Boras guy.

  You get the player for six-plus years regardless.

Dodgers101

• Will skubal be sealed at the deadline?

Steve Adams

• Assuming that’s “traded” — the short, boring and most accurate answer is: “Maybe?”If the Tigers are 10+ games back, then yeah, I imagine he’ll be moved. They’ll get a big return in a trade that eclipses the draft pick they’d net upon him rejecting a QO and signing elsewhere.

  But today’s brand of front office almost universally waits until the eleventh hour to make even minor decisions. The Tigers aren’t going to punt on the season in early June. Unless they’re still just absolutely buried in the standings, I doubt they’ll make a final call on Skubal any sooner than 72-ish hours before the deadline. If they have a glimmer of hope, they’re going to wait until the last possible second.

Angels GM

• Who says no? Jo Adell to the Guards for  Genao, Ingle and Stephan?

Steve Adams

• Vastly overestimating the trade value Adell has here. He wouldn’t fetch a prospect of either Genao or Ingle’s caliber in a one-for-one swap, let alone that kind of package.

Meow

• For a long time now, FIP has been the go-to start for an at-a-glance assessment about sustainability of pitching results. As we know, it does this by ignoring results where the batter put the ball in play. While the general correlation to future ERA is undeniable, I’ve always thought FIP failed to capture the relative talents of contact-oriented pitching. Now that Statcast has been collecting more detailed swing data, do you think we should expect to see better/more comprehensive “fielding independent” pitching stats coming along?

Steve Adams

• I’ve like SIERA over FIP for … well, ever. FIP doesn’t normalize homer-to-flyball rate, despite the fact that HR/FB year after year tends to stabilize around 12%. SIERA (and xFIP) do account for that. I feel they’re far better metrics.There are plenty of other ERA estimators/alternatives already out there. xERA (Statcast), DRA, DRA- … FIP is more useful than ERA, but it’s got its own flaws

Crafty Lefty

• Now that the new CBA negotiations are “joined” can you see a settlement that includes some sort of cap, but materially improves the salary structure for younger players?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think the union will ever consent to a cap, and I think they’d be more willing to lose games than ownership would if it came down to it.
• I also wouldn’t call either of the initial proposals any kind of beginning to negotiations
• They were PR stunts. Both wildly unrealistic and total nonstarters for the other party. I don’t even understand the point in putting those out there. It’s nonsense — entirely for show.

Bucs Fan

• Hi. Do you think Mlodzinski lost any respect from his teammates after his reaction to being sent to the bullpen?

Black and Gold

• Has Cartmen Mlodzinski damaged his trade value by his perceived attitude problem?

Steve Adams

• Obviously can’t speak to how he’s perceived among his teammates with any real firsthand knowledge, as they’ll keep that behind closed doors, but just logically speaking, how could he not have pissed off some guys in the clubhouse? He hung the team out to dry, forced them to call up Cam Sanders and then send him back down … his fourth option of the year. They can only option him one more time now.I get it, he wants to start, but good clubhouses have everyone rowing in the same direction, and that sure doesn’t feel like something that’s happening here.

  As for his trade value, I don’t know that it was sky-high to begin with. He’s a back-end, five-inning starter whose numbers the second and especially third time through the order are glaring.

• I can still imagine some clubs being less interested, though. If you trade for the guy and he struggles for his first 5-6 starts, what do you do? Put him in the bullpen and hope he doesn’t make a big deal of it this time? It’s just a bad look.

MarkTrain

• DeGrom a Hall of Famer?

Steve Adams

• He should be, especially considering he has a few years left. Though frankly, if he retired today and got voted in, I’d say that’s fine. But I’m a bigger hall guy than most. I also neither have nor want a Hall of Fame vote (or any vote), so my opinion doesn’t matter much haha

Josh

• Think Buxton will waive his no-trade at the deadline for a team like the Braves?

Steve Adams

• I lean no. He was pretty adamant last year about staying in MN. Obviously he backed down on that stance a slight bit after the fire sale and with all the ownership tumult, but the Twins have (somehow) been moderately competitive. Lot of interesting young pitching, lots of high-end prospects near the majors.Maybe if the front office/ownership tells him “Hey we’re going to drag this rebuild out a few years,” he’d concede, but I don’t know that that’s even necessary. They have some interesting young arms already with several top-100 type bats in AAA (Walker Jenkins, Kaelen Culpepper, Emmanuel Rodriguez). They’re not all healthy, but they’re close, and the system will only get better if they trade Joe Ryan, Ryan Jeffers, and a few other shorter-term pieces. No money on the books next year, so even if they’re going to reside in this $110MM payroll range, they could still sign some meaningful free agents.

Spider

• Whatvdo you think the phillies can get for nola

Steve Adams

• No one is taking that contract with the way he’s pitched since 2025.

JD

• If the Astros trade Yordan, would they be able to get more than the Nats received for Soto?

Steve Adams

• I think it’d be comparable, perhaps a bit less. Same amount of club control. Alvarez has more cost certainty because of the contract, but he’s older with some injuries of note on the track record. Soto wasn’t a particularly great OF at the time of the deal, but he was at least an everyday OF. Alvarez is more part-time out there.The trade package would have to be absurd, though.

Brian

• 3 years 60 mil look about right for Randy Arozarena’s next contract? Do the Ms sign that contract?

Steve Adams

• I’d probably take the slight over, but three years at $20-25MM seems reasonable, depending how he finishes.

Cap

• What will cap be at with new contract? I’m thinking around 295 but floor will be hard for many teams to reach at 177.

Steve Adams

• I don’t think there will be one.

Ebenezer_Batflip

• Randy is gonna be one of the best hitters in free agency, i think he can do better than 3/60

Steve Adams

• He’s a 32-year-old (well, he will be) corner-only outfielder. Teams don’t really up their bids on players and overpay because the market has few options anymore. They just work the trade market or spend to reinforce other areas of strength.A quick look in our Contract Tracker shows that the only outfielder age 32 or older to sign for more than three years in the past half decade is Starling Marte (4/78 with the Mets)

  https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/contracttracker?name=&team=0&position=O…

• I guess you’ve got Schwarber at 5/150, but he’s a complete outlier and doesn’t impact Arozarena at all in my mind.

Zach

• Who’s the NL Cy Young if the season ended today?

Steve Adams

• Flip a coin? Haha
• I’d probably go Cristopher Sanchez, just because he has eight more innings. It’s that close. But I like Miz’s chances of continuing to dominate at absurd levels a bit more than Sanchez’s, so Miz would be my pick now to win at season’s end.
• My preseason Yamamoto pick does not feel like it’s going to hold up, ha

Cash

• How much cash is typically involved when players are traded for cash?

Steve Adams

• It varies. Can be as low as a dollar or could be $50K+ … it’s never a very significant amount. Teams aren’t buying guys who were DFA for $2.5MM or anything.

Guest

• What is going on with Framber Valdez? Is the pressure of Detroit getting to him? complacency of being the #2? His walk rate and HR rate have been outrageous and his groundball rate has seemingly decreased.

Steve Adams

• Valdez had an 8.5% walk rate in 2025 and has an 8.5% walk rate in 2026.
• Grounders are down, as are the strikeouts. I haven’t taken a deep dive into him or anything, but his pitch selection and velo are right in line with prior seasons. He’s been mostly fine outside two awful starts, but fair to say the Tigers were obviously hoping for more than this.Certainly doesn’t help his cause that Detroit has been one of the two or three worst defensive clubs in baseball, but that doesn’t explain the dip in whiffs

Guest

• does Robbie Ray get traded by the deadline ?  Do the Giants have to include a prospect to make such a deal ?

Steve Adams

• I do think he’ll be traded. Can’t imagine they’ll attach a prospect of note. He’s a FA at season’s end anyhow. If no one will take him, even with some cash paid down, they can just keep him.How much cash — if any — they need to include will hinge on how he pitches for the next two months. I’m not extremely bullish, so I’ll say they trade him for a marginal return and eat half the money he’s still owed

Mike

• Yoshida and $10mm for Bryan Abreu & Yainer Diaz?

Steve Adams

• Broken record time: Yoshida does not have trade value, and adding $10MM isn’t enough to change that.
• I wouldn’t trade Abreu+Diaz for Yoshida if the Red Sox ate his entire contract.

CBA

• So the Marlins etc get about $15M+ a year from competitive balance tax and yet still only have $80M payroll so you’re telling me they only make enough money to pay $65M on their own? That seems suspect

Steve Adams

• They get more than that from revenue sharing. And as of 2022, every team was getting $65MM apiece from national broadcast and streaming deals. Those contracts increase incrementally every year.The Marlins just aren’t spending the revenue sharing money they get

Zach

• Could Will Venable win manager of the year?

Steve Adams

• Manager of the Year is basically just “manager of the team that exceeded preseason expectations the most,” so sure. He’s probably the front-runner in the AL right now

AA

• Should I be looking to trade Kim for either LF or RP help. Then let Dubon and Mateo take over SS.

Steve Adams

• Kim’s not bringing back major league help right now with the way he’s playing.He also still can’t be traded without his consent for another 13 days, but that’s beside the point.

RedsFan

• So Steve, you love this sport. Without a cap, what is a reasonable solution for the millions of us that are sick of the dodgers/Mets/yanks spending gazillions and th brewers and reds spending 25 cents?

Steve Adams

• Drastically more significant penalties for exceeding the luxury tax — draft picks, much steeper percentages of taxation, probably.I don’t even inherently hate the idea of a cap. If it comes, fine, but I don’t think the players will ever concede to it, and on the snowball’s chance they actually cave, I think it’d take about 1-2 years before everyone realized, “Hey the Brewers, Reds, Marlins, etc. still aren’t spending on free agents, they’re just absorbing the final year of the Dodgers’ and Mets’ unwanted contracts to buy a prospect and hit the salary floor”

  While the owners all toast to their substantially greater franchise values.

• I don’t think there is ever going to be a way to get a crappy owner to spend money at the levels most of said team’s fans would prefer.

B-Wild

• What kind of value does Sandy Alcantara have? He’s been a horse, but not an ace horse. The return to form hasn’t quite happened.

Steve Adams

• Yeah, better than last year but not to where the Marlins hoped. I still imagine there are some teams that think they could get him back to form and would pay a nice price for it. And even if he’s “just” the current version of himself, that still has value.At this point, I don’t see how they’re getting multiple 50-FV (i.e top-100) types for him. If you can get one 50 as a headliner with 2-3 other lesser young pieces, that’s probably a decent framework.

Bobby Cox

• Ozzie is a free agent at year’s end. Do the Braves make him an offer with Southesine waiting in the wings?

Steve Adams

• He’s not a free agent. They have a $7MM club option that they’ll exercise. It’s a bargain for Albies.Could always look to trade him, but Tate Southisene is 19 years old and still playing in A-ball. He’s not going to be an Opening Day consideration next year anyhow. Picking up Albies’ option works pretty well with Southisene’s timeline, really. He could be a major league option by ’28 … maybe late ’27 if he’s a quick mover, but ’28 or even ’29 seems more realistic.

Coppy’s Ghost

• What would a trade for Jo Adell from the Angels or Noelvi Marte from the Reds look like from the Braves perspective and would either player be a beneficial platoon partner in left field for Mike  Yastrzemski?

Steve Adams

• Adell is a monster against LHP. Would be a great fit in that role. I don’t know why the Reds aren’t giving Marte another look, but I’d just start him over Yaz if they got him. In a platoon setting, I don’t love that fit, since Marte’s career numbers are much better in right-on-right matchups. Not sure that continues to be the case long term, but I also just think Marte can hit and he should be given a chance to on a regular basis.Marte has far more control and would (or should … but again, the Reds seem nonplused with him for whatever reason) cost substantially more.

  Adell shouldn’t cost much in the way of prospects. Even last year when he hit 37 homers, he did it with a .290ish OBP and poor defense. He’s pretty one-dimensional. I don’t mind the idea of tossing a couple guys ranked between 15th and 30th in the system to the Angels for him.

Benton man

• Do you see Nolan Gorman getting  traded this summer ?

Steve Adams

• I don’t think he’d fetch anything of note, but it wouldn’t surprise me, no. He’s trending toward a non-tender, so if another club wants to give up even a modicum of value to try to fix him, the Cards would probably shrug and say sure.

T Robertson

• When Cabrera and Boyd comes back, do the Cubs go to a 6-man rotation, or do they send Taillon or Rea back to Triple A/Bullpen?

Steve Adams

• Can’t send either of those guys to AAA
• You’re assuming everyone is healthy at the same time, which feels optimistic for any team — but especially the Cubs, given how this season’s going.
• If they did somehow get everyone healthy, it’d be Rea back to a swing role in the ‘pen. Boyd, Shota, Taillon, Cabrera, Brown in the rotation probably, then play it by ear whenever Steele’s back. Could always ‘pen Brown again. He’s been great, but you can’t option any of the more veteran guys

Marlins Fan

• Why do the Marlins keep Morel when they can just bring Ramirez back up

Steve Adams

• Never understood the Morel signing, and don’t understand the leash they’ve given him.

Cincy Fan

• So you don’t see Ohtani winning CY?

Steve Adams

• He’s 25ish innings behind Sanchez right now, and he’s not missing bats like Miz or limiting walks like Sanchez. He’s great, obviously, but not sure he’ll have the innings and don’t think he (or anyone) can sustain the sub-1.00 ERA.

Mile High

• Are you surprised with how Mickey Moniak has performed this season & should the Rockies absolutely be moving him this deadline?

Steve Adams

• Yeah. I’ve been down on Moniak forever. When Angels fans got excited about his half season there, I was the debbie downer pointing to his .400 BABIP and 35 K%. Even last year in Colorado, I didn’t think he had much value because of the poor OBP and defense.This year he’s just exploded. Walking a bit more, keeping the K’s manageable, hitting for way more power. Bat speed’s up a touch. More contact both in the zone and off the plate.

  He still swings WAY too much — take a walk, Mickey! — and can’t hit lefties, but he looks like a really nice guy to plug into the big half of a corner/DH platoon at an affordable salary. Rockies should absolutely trade him.

Arraez-A-Roni

• Since Arraez is producing better than *checks notes* ANYONE thought at 2B, who would be a good trade fit at the deadline? Yankees? the Surprising A’s? Pirates?  And would he net SFG a prospect in the teams 5-10 range plus another in the 10-15 range?

Steve Adams

• Rays? Haven’t gotten much from 2B this year and Lux isn’t coming back anytime soon.Red Sox, Phillies, Royals and Reds have gotten little to nothing from 2B this year, but it’s not clear they’ll all be buyers. Royals sure seem like they’re headed the other direction.

  Any team with ABs available at 2B, 1B or DH makes sense though. I’m generally of the “Arraez is fairly overrated as a one-dimensional/one-trick guy”, but that one trick is working a lot better than it has in awhile and he’s played a solid 2B while walking a slight bit more (although his overall swing rate is actually up, so that probably won’t last)

Davis Martin

• Where an I right now in the AL CYA voting?

Steve Adams

• Probably behind Schlittler but near the top. And kudos to Martin. I waved him off early on as an April fluke because he wasn’t really missing bats or doing much different in the past — and since I kind of shrugged off his start he’s struck out 31% of his opponents over a stretch of 36 innings. He’s had two starts against the Angels in there, and I’m pretty sure there are people in this chat who could pick up five strikeouts in a start against the Halos, but still, he’s missing bats against everyone now.He’s throwing his slider and curve more often and throwing both pitches harder. Swinging-strike rate is up to 13.1%, which is quite good, and the command has always been pretty good (though it’s even better now).

  He increasingly looks like a genuine breakout — which would be a huge success story for the Sox’ player development. Martin looked like a garden variety fifth starter from 2023-25.

Bouncy

• Why do we get ao many players who are DFAd, choose free agency, then wind up siging a minor-league contract with the same organization teh y just left?  Why not just accept the outright assignment in teh first place?

Steve Adams

• Renegotiating a new minor league deal lets you negotiate new opt-out dates or upward mobility clauses that weren’t in the original deal. Can also angle for slight increases in minor league and/or major league salary.

Cris E

• I don’t think you need a cap if there’s a TON of revenue sharing and a serious floor. Take enough of LAD money and they can’t afford to spend like they have been.

Steve Adams

• People also love to focus on the Dodgers ruining baseball without acknowledging that the Mets spend nearly as much and have been terrible. Or that Kyle Tucker has been worth about 10% of what they’re paying him this season.

My name?

• JJW has to be ROY as of right now, right? And his skill set isn’t really prone to dramatic swings, and if anything his xwOBA is 20 pts higher than his wOBA

Steve Adams

• As of now, sure, he’d probably win, but there’s a whole lot of season left and Nolan McLean’s not going to keep working to a 4-something ERA. Sal Stewart’s going to heat up again at some point.And Griffin’s on the IL now, but he was hitting .317/.370/.488 over 135 PAs beforehand.
• Alright I’ve got to call it for the week. I’m on X @Adams_Steve and Bluesky @adams-steve.bsky.social.If you want more opinions and analysis from the MLBTR team, you can sign up for our Front Office subscription package, which gives you ad-free viewing, two weekly subscriber-only chats, exclusive articles (including Tim’s weekly mailbag), and access to our suite of tools (Contract Tracker, Agency Database, GM Database, forthcoming payroll outlook pages), fantasy advice from expert Nicklaus Gaut, and more. You can learn more and sign up here.

  Have a good week everyone!