The past couple weeks have not been kind to the Padres. They now have a season-high five-game losing streak after being swept in today’s matinee series finale in Philadelphia. It’s their third four-plus game skid of the season and second in as many weeks, as they’ve dropped nine of ten.
Six of those have come at the hands of the Phillies, who have turned their season around after a brutal April and managerial change. Philadelphia obviously deserves credit for that, but San Diego’s recent results have magnified the issues that existed even when they were winning games. They won 18 of 25 games in April despite an underperforming lineup and one of the weakest on-paper rotations in the National League. The roster deficiencies have begun to catch up.
San Diego’s early-season success means they’re still in playoff position. They’re 32-29 and right in the thick of the Wild Card race. Two-thirds of the National League is above .500, so a team’s placement in the standings can move quickly.
Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote about the Padres’ struggles this morning, observing that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never shied away from big swings at the deadline. Unless they go into a freefall over the next two months, they’ll likely be tied to a number of big names on the trade market. The needs are stacking up.
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I know let’s just keep running the same bums out there every day with the same ineffective coaching staff, what’s the worst that can happen?
Stammen proving why you don’t see many teams hiring former middle relievers to manage the team. Between SD and SF’s choices of managers last winter it’s tough to say either one has staying power.
I can at least Tony Vitello having another year or two. I’m not sure about Stammen, though
In all fairness to Stammen, Tatis has 1 hr and 18 rbis, Machado is hitting .174, Merrill .207, Fermin .126 and they’ve lost Musgrove, Darvish and Pivetta. The fact that they’re in contention for any wildcard slot is shocking.
Invalidating a guy because he was a reliever is a pretty strange take. And as Senior pointed out he has done well to keep them in contention at all
Bait.
Wait.. this isn’t an Angel’s article…
I hate to be this guy….but Mike Shildt was SUCH a problem. He held everyone accountable and demanded effort. I’m not accusing these Padres of mailing it in, but somehow Shildt’s teams just won. He didn’t play nice with the media, and he didn’t massage a lot of egos, but he WON. Maybe Mike Shildt is a modern-day Bobby Knight. We can argue the rights and wrongs of that approach for ever, but meanwhile the Dodgers and their unlimited payroll are cruising to another division title. But at least Dennis Lin’s feelings are safe.
Shildt averaged over 90 wins perseason, and has gotten into the playoffs every year except for his .594 Cards in a partial season.
What did he do wrong to get fired?
He didn’t get fired, but there was conflict between him and his coaches. No players complained about him. The local media was tough on him for sure.
Managing seemed to be a serious stress on him and I believe him when he said he needed a break from it.
@DonOsbourne
Shildt’s teams battled through rough patches too. His 2024 team came out of the All-Star break under .500.
Neither of them had a 1-9 stretch, but it wasn’t all perfect under Shildt either.
Treated employees like dirt. Came out that was also the reason behind the mystery Cards sacking.
It happened at 2 orgs. Thats a story. It’s not the journalists fault.
The Padres roster construction is not good. Preller somehow built a team whose talent seems to have crested before the salary loads. Jake Cronenworth is done. Bogaerts was never worth that much and Preller was bidding that contract up against himself, like a left and right hand at an auction not knowing that the bid paddle belonged to the same person. Machado is in old man mode; late on anything above 95mph and hoping for a cement mixer slider to hang over the plate. Tatis needs to go back to right field and be dropped to the middle of the order so he’ll ditch the table setter mentality for base cleaner. The starting pitching is duct tape and paper clips at this point; just hoping to get thru 5 innings so the bullpen can take over from there.
50/50 vision. your crystal ball is cloudy.
Cronenworth got beaned. He might be done, but until he returns no one knows.
The Red Sox bid $10 million more in AAV for Bogaerts, just over 6 years. The Padres were not bidding against themselves. The Red Sox could have taken it in the shorts if X got hurt in his 2nd season of a 6 year deal and underperformed for 3 seasons.
Machado has a .177 BABip. By the end of the season it will be around 120 points higher and his BA 80 points higher. 4 seam FB thrown to him have averaged 95.8 mph. His xBA against 4 seam FB is .279, best of any pitch type. He has a 3 run value against 4 seam FB, again best of any pitch. He has been unlucky, not bad.
Tatis is hitting .322/.396/.378/.774 the last 28 days.
Machado’s 2026 Strikeout Rate 23.2%. Career Strikeout Rate: 15.4%
2026 Whiff Rate: 25.3%. Career Whiff Rate: 10-11%.
Barrel Rate: Dropped to 4.6% in 2026, which is roughly half of his 2025 barrel rate of 9.3%
Those are disturbing to see from an aging player.
I’d be happy to chalk it all up to Steven Souza but the Padres aren’t willing to admit that. And in Souza’s case, he’s quickly proving he couldn’t do or teach.
.177 BABip = 80 point rise in BA or more by the end of the season. This is a given. Machado is hitting 95+ pitches hard but you thought he couldn’t catch up with them. His K rate is 4% higher than last season, but so is his BB rate.
You can’t chalk it up to anything because now you are backtracking because you were wrong about everything the first time through.
If he can hit, why isn’t he hitting? His RE24 is -5. He’s hitting 50 points below his weight. Whatever amount of spin that could be put on this pathetic offense won’t help. Souza was a joke of a player and he’s effed up every bat in that dugout. See ball, hit ball. Know the dang situation, have a clue about your own weaknesses and look for the pitcher to exploit that. For Machado at 33 years old, that’s hard in and fade everything else off the outside.
I am sorry that you don’t understand the stats. Machado’s .176 BABip, or batting average on balls in play, is 124 points lower than league average for a full season and 120 lower than his carer average and it will be close to .300 by the end of the season. That it is so low means that he has been putting balls in play but hitting them at people. That has a way of averaging out over a full season. Balls will start dropping in. As it goes up, so will his BA. It will go up in relationship to the percentage of balls he puts in play. MLB average is 66% and Machado’s average is 69%. 124 x .6 = 74.4. So just add a minimum of 74 points to his current BA and you will be pretty close to where he will be on October 1st.
You an apply that in reverse for players with BABip that is far above average.
I would give you some advice on how to look up the actual stats of how Machado is doing on those particular pitches, but you would just pin it to something else after being shown that you are incorrect again.
That you feel the need to try to insult players and coaches tells us everything we need to know about the lack of value of your opinion on baseball.
Thanks for not being condescending, Fungo. Condescending meaning talking down to people. I was being sarcastic.
I know what your intended point is but your law of averages diminish almost entirely when you’re using those stats for a 33 year old player. The “over time” theory doesn’t work in favor of someone when time is their enemy. The same works in reverse.
Last season, everyone with your blanket statements on this theory of BABIP didn’t think there was a snowball’s chance that Jacob Wilson could maintain his batting average anywhere near where he ended up. The reasons he was able to are because of supporting evidence like low K rates and his ability to spray the ball. Put a ball in play 90% of the time and you’re going to have a much better chance of hitting for a high average.
BABIP is a solid indicator but it isn’t a rule.
If one wanted to be snarky, one could point out that he also has 11 HRs with only 14 barrels. That percentage is usually closer to 50%. So while the BABIP issue is certainly correct, you can also deduct a few points for the HR/Barrel numbers.
Numbers giveth, numbers taketh away.
If the season ended two days ago:
Their current team batting average of .218 would be: The worst in franchise history, the second worst being their inaugural season 1969 in which they batted an abysmal .226. The 11th worst in MLB history
Their current OPS of .651 would be: The worst in the MLB below the New York Mets .652. 14th worst in MLB history
Their current BA with RISP would be: The worst in the MLB at .216 10 points lower than ironically enough, the Phillies. That would be the 5th worst in MLB History
Skip’s Fungo
The Red Sox bid $10 million more in AAV for Bogaerts,
================
I’d like to see some documentation on that claim. Your calcs come up with > $35M per, and that was nowhere near his value. My understanding was that the RS were at about $27M*7.
Read the Boston area newspapers. The Red Sox wouldn’t go 7 years, only 6.
Skip’s Fungo
Read the Boston area newspapers.
=================
According to Alex Speier of The Boston Globe, the Red Sox offered Bogaerts a six-year deal worth around $160 million.
Boston’s best and final offer was 6 years/ $162,000,000.
Preller bid against himself and drove the years and the price up to 11 years, $280,000,000.
Anything creative would land him at 9 years for $220,000,000 and save 2 years and $60,000,000.
It still wouldn’t be a good contract but would be the difference between food poisoning and terminal Montezuma’s Revenge.
AJ isn’t tied to X. That was all Seidler and it was his money to spend.
Did AJ or did he not sign him?
At PS orders.
Owners of course do have a say in budgets, and that includes commitments to major contracts
And did you or did you not say that trading Blake Snell would be the difference in him signing with the Padres or not signing with the Padres and that Matt Carpenter would opt out of the second year of his Padres contract?
You nailed it with a lot of the same points I have been harping about. Preller has been given close to 12 years now. Something has to give. The contract dollars and years involved make it almost impossible to move these guys. I know teams want to buy cheaper years before players are eligible for free agency. I would wait at least until the all star break of a player’s third year of service. Cronenworth was evaluated rightly by Tampa Bay as utility infielder. Preller showers him with a seven year contract. Way over pay for Xander and Manny demands more and they give it to him!
I say this as a Padres fan – I think some very hard times are coming for the Pads. Those Machado and Xander contracts are turning into huge albatrosses (as we knew they would even before the ink was even dry) and they have very questionable starting pitching. Plus, Preller’s unrelenting need to have to get the shiniest toy in the store window (Kemp, Myers, Soto, Miller and now maybe Skubal) at the expense of the team’s future is killing this them. I understand that hindsight is 20/20, but how nice would it be to have Abrams and Wood, for instance, right now (and Trea Turner before them).
I expect machado to be better. He’s not this bad. But if he’s starting a sharp decline they’re in a tough spot.
The bogey deal is and always was terrible. Machado opting out should’ve been a gift but they re-upped to another massive deal trying to win now. Definitely not a rosy long term outlook. Musgrove and Pivetta could save things but you’re asking those guys to pitch close to their ceilings. I expect Vasquez’s numbers will continue to slide back to the back of the rotation starter he truly is.
If nothing else Preller will probably put together another great draft next month though.
He is good at drafting and finding talent. Just keep him away from the FA money.
Ding ding ding! Winner! I have been saying this for years.
They don’t have the prospects to get Skubal. I dont think Abrams and Wood would perform as well playing 81 games at Petco. I have my fingers crossed that the new ownership group will maybe eat some of the money owed to Cronenworth in order to get something in return for him. I’d really like to see them allow propsects to come up and make a contribution rather just use them all in the “win-now” trade mode we’ve been in….
I doubt they can get Skubal. Especially since the tigers have a young catcher that they like. A Salas type prospect would need to go back in return. Too many teams will be interested. Can’t imagine that guys like Kash Mayfield and Bradgely Rodriguez wouldn’t be topped elsewhere.
They would have to eat the entire contract to unload Cronenworth. No team would take that on.
Most likely…but it wouldn’t hurt to see what is out there. Maybe a fringe prospect?
Crone has negative value w/ his contract so no you wouldn’t get a fringe prospect.
He’s a lefty, solid glove who can move around the i field. He’s holds some value and maybe seen as a”change of secenary” candidate…
He also has a 47wrc+ is 32 years old and is owed ~ $50MM after this season.
No takers for that. He should be better once he’s back but immovable right now for sure/
You guys are talking about Croney like he’s fine, he’s not. He doesn’t need a change of scenery, he needs his dizzy head to clear after the beaning so he can see the scenery (and fastballs) again.
Do you seriously qualify his stats this year as indicative of his abilities as a baseball player? Shoe me last years data.
I think we’ve gotten the best baseball from him that we are going to get…
Brew88
Shoe me last years data.
=============
He was okay last year, and a 99+ hitter over his last three years. Even without the concussion, no one will want a contract lasting until he is 36.
If he returns, there could be some market interest, but the Padres would have to eat salary.
@JoeBrady yeah he’s not a valuable trade commodity, but the Padres have been adamant about wanting to keep him as their 2b/super utility guy. So I don’t see any concern there…the issue right now is his brain injury and if he can return to baseball.
Other than one statement by Stammen that his return “is not something that is going to happen here really quickly. It’s going to be a pretty slow process”, I have not been able to find anything else about Cronenworth starting any kind of baseball activities since he was placed on the IL a month ago. That doesn’t sound promising.
Crone’s only one partial season removed from a perfectly serviceable 117 wRC+, tied with 2021 for his highest as a Padre. Might as well let him stick around as an expensive bench piece/bounce back project.
The bigger problem is if this year’s performances from Tatis, Merrill, Manny, and Bogaerts are just who they are now. That’s $100 million or so annually tied up in awful production, closer to $120 million once Manny and Tatis’ contracts escalate to their highest per-year payouts.
I think I’m against a salary cap at this point, because throwing money at free agency might be the only way this team’s window stays open.
Profar is available next season. How bout it Pads?
Informed Sportsball Discussion
The bigger problem is if this year’s performances from Tatis, Merrill…are just who they are now.
================
I seriously doubt that. They are 27 and 23 years old. While I always advise against signing guys like Manny and Bogaerts to the age of 40, players seldom dis appear in the mid-20s. And both ae hitting better over the past two weeks.
That Xander contract seemed ridiculous at the time and it still does but when Machado said he was gonna opt out the Padres should’ve just let him opt out and leave. I know they extended him before he could actually opt out but they should’ve let him walk. Did anybody think that that contract was gonna work out?
Pretty clear it was going to be underwater at some point. Like Mr Ilich in Detroit—Peter Seidler wanted to see the team win before he passed. Machado & Bogey definitely benefitted there.
Prince Fielder was atop Detroiter Mike I’s final Wish List, mirrored and outdone by Peter S. with Machado, Tatis, Bogaerts, Croney…
Still wondering exactly how Dave Dombrowski later foisted Prince on the Texas Rangers. The Padres might be able to get pieces back for Fernando especially if the Mets come calling (San Diegans hope they do not despite clear signs Tatis is beyond bored there) but not the others.
I didn’t see Machado falling off like this.
33 is when the hardcore decline usually starts.
Players age 31 season is when decline starts. The age 36 season is when steep decline starts.
Here is the python code to pull it from Baseball-reference starting with 1961 and running through 2025 of players that were age 20 -40 that played through at least age 37.
# Install first if needed:
# pip install pybaseball pandas matplotlib
import pandas as pd
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from pybaseball import batting_stats_bref
START_YEAR = 1961
END_YEAR = 2025
MIN_PA = 300
MIN_AGE = 20
MAX_AGE = 40
QUALIFYING_AGE = 37
all_years = []
for year in range(START_YEAR, END_YEAR + 1):
print(f”Pulling {year}…”)
df = batting_stats_bref(year)
df[“Season”] = year
all_years.append(df)
batting = pd.concat(all_years, ignore_index=True)
# Clean column names
batting.columns = [str(c).strip() for c in batting.columns]
# Locate OPS+ column
ops_plus_col = None
for col in batting.columns:
cleaned = col.replace(” “, “”).replace(“_”, “”).lower()
if cleaned in [“ops+”, “opsplus”, “ops_plus”]:
ops_plus_col = col
break
if ops_plus_col is None:
raise ValueError(f”Could not find OPS+ column. Available columns: {batting.columns.tolist()}”)
batting = batting.rename(columns={ops_plus_col: “OPS_plus”})
# Convert key fields to numeric
for col in [“Age”, “PA”, “OPS_plus”]:
batting[col] = pd.to_numeric(batting[col], errors=”coerce”)
batting = batting.dropna(subset=[“Name”, “Age”, “PA”, “OPS_plus”])
# Handle multi-team seasons.
# If a player has a TOT row, keep that and remove the team-specific duplicate rows.
if “Tm” in batting.columns:
batting[“is_tot”] = batting[“Tm”].astype(str).eq(“TOT”)
batting = (
batting.sort_values([“Season”, “Name”, “Age”, “is_tot”])
.drop_duplicates(subset=[“Season”, “Name”, “Age”], keep=”last”)
.drop(columns=[“is_tot”])
)
# Restrict to expansion era
batting = batting[
(batting[“Season”] >= START_YEAR) &
(batting[“Season”] = QUALIFYING_AGE, “Name”]
.dropna()
.unique()
)
# Now filter to those long-career players and the desired age range.
# Apply the PA cutoff to the seasons used in the actual OPS+ curve.
long_career_batting = batting[
(batting[“Name”].isin(qualified_players)) &
(batting[“Age”] >= MIN_AGE) &
(batting[“Age”] = MIN_PA)
].copy()
# Build plate-appearance weighted OPS+ by age.
aging_curve = (
long_career_batting
.groupby(“Age”)
.apply(lambda x: pd.Series({
“weighted_OPS_plus”: (x[“OPS_plus”] * x[“PA”]).sum() / x[“PA”].sum(),
“player_seasons”: len(x),
“total_PA”: x[“PA”].sum()
}))
.reset_index()
)
# Smooth the curve with a centered 3-age rolling average.
aging_curve[“smoothed_OPS_plus”] = (
aging_curve[“weighted_OPS_plus”]
.rolling(window=3, center=True, min_periods=1)
.mean()
)
print(aging_curve)
# Chart
plt.figure(figsize=(11, 6))
plt.plot(
aging_curve[“Age”],
aging_curve[“smoothed_OPS_plus”],
marker=”o”,
linewidth=2,
label=”3-age rolling average”
)
plt.plot(
aging_curve[“Age”],
aging_curve[“weighted_OPS_plus”],
marker=”.”,
linewidth=1,
alpha=0.45,
label=”Raw weighted average”
)
plt.axhline(100, linestyle=”–“, linewidth=1)
plt.title(“MLB Hitter Aging Curve by OPS+”)
plt.xlabel(“Age”)
plt.ylabel(“Plate-Appearance Weighted OPS+”)
plt.legend()
plt.grid(True, alpha=0.3)
plt.figtext(
0.01,
0.01,
(
f”Expansion era, {START_YEAR}-{END_YEAR}. ”
f”Includes only hitters who played through age {QUALIFYING_AGE} or older. ”
f”Seasons in curve require {MIN_PA}+ PA. ”
“OPS+ data from Baseball-Reference via pybaseball.”
),
fontsize=9
)
plt.tight_layout()
plt.show()
Medium also examines the performance of hitters over time including hard hit rate, barrel rate, max exit velocity and average exit velocity. Both power metrics peak at 27 and decline quickly while contact metrics hit their apex at 27 and slowly erode to 32 before the numbers fall off the table.
I looked at it as, please let him go. Manny is out of shape and slower. he can barely make it to 2nd with a ball rattling around in the left field corner. His bat speed is slower. He can’t catch up to elite fastballs.
Here what is left on contracts are 2026:
Many and Xander 7 years
Tatis and Merrill 8 years
Cronenworth 4 years.
I like Arraez reunion and addtiion of Ward who has expiring deal. Those 2 should cost less trade capital than Abrams
Not only do I think the Giants would not trade Luis Arraez within the division, especially to the Pads, but as a Giants fan I hope they re-sign Luis to a 2-3 year contract. Probably won’t happen because he’ll be worth quite a bit to a contender at the deadline (and the Giants will get a player of value too). But either way, most Giants fans want Luis back. And how he got a bad rep at 2b is beyond us—he’s playing Gold Glove 2b for us.
@PetesView
“And how he got a bad rep at 2b is beyond us—he’s playing Gold Glove 2b for us.”
That would be because Arraez has never been a plus defender at any point in his career until now. That’s how he got the bad rep.
I think Wash has a lot to do with his improved glove.
It could also be that Arraez realized that he wasn’t getting a big contract with a weak glove, and did some work on it.
Bingo. Very obvious career plan. Find myself a team that guarantees me 2b and work my backside off at being better. Bravo. In saying that, the internet might have overblown the deficiencies. I don’t he was ever as useless as people portrayed.
I think the Giants might need to cash in. Schmidt or Arraez.
I watched him quite a bit last two years and never thought he was bad defensively. He actually seems to do a better job at 2B than he did at 1B for SD. His bat to ball is Gwynesque. Biggest rap on him is that he didn’t walk enough and swung at too many pitches outside the zone. But he’s always been that way. Hard to argue against him though with batting titles on the shelf. High-character dude. AAV seems reasonable for sure.
In saying that, the internet might have overblown the deficiencies. I don’t he was ever as useless as people portrayed.
================
There is a decent chance of that. Once players get a reputation of being a poor fielder, it is tough to shake. I’ve seen guys with bad reps that are less than cringe-worthy.
Just wait until those long term contracts have a bunch of old guys making a fortune and all hitting .220.
If only they were hitting .200 now !
Make that .220
The Padres have defied gravity for weeks, but this works only so well and for so long. Then, plop.
Yes, their problems aren’t mounting, they’ve been there all along. They were just coping admirably well until a couple weeks ago.
Defying gravity isn’t every player hitting well below their career norms. It’s the opposite.
@Brew88
Blueskies is saying the team managed to still win until the second game of the Dodger series despite the bats being terrible. In other words, they defied gravity until that point, powered by the bullpen and unsustainable comebacks. They have now come back to earth in both areas.
Yeah. But it defies logic to suggest that the team has overperformed, rather than underperformed.
@Brew88
Not really. They’ve underperformed, especially with the bats, but have outperformed where you would expect them to be based on just how bad the underperformance has been.
I would expect a team that had the worst bats in baseball and had lost Pivetta to injury would have never sniffed first place. The Pads were there only two weeks ago before gravity caught up with them.
Huh? lol, I must be confused. The gravitational pull is a positive regression for the hitters, not where they are now. The pitching has been about as expected.
@Brew88
There has been little to no evidence of that gravitational pull. Meanwhile, the implications of a team having the statistical worst bats in all of baseball defying the odds by still having a winning record are easy to understand.
There’s plenty of evidence. One doesn’t have to dig too deep in recent career histories to understand that Tatis will hit more than 1 HR in next 55 games, and that Merrill improve on .605 OPS ROS
I believe I can explain my logic for myself, thank you. For one, I never used the words underperforming or over-performing, and neither was suggested.
They had been defying gravity by maintaining a solid W-L record despite a run differential hovering right around zero throughout. This is statistically very unlikely to continue, and the longer they played near that run differential breakeven point, the more probable it became that their W-L record trended towards it. And this is exactly what has happened. The bell curve wins again.
So, no defiance of logic has occurred. Just an explanation of basic statistical realities.
Thanks for clarifying your initial plop comment? It was rather brief and full of mystery.
But since there seems to be interest, I do expect some positive regression to the norm.
Sorry for the unintentional mystery. At the risk of adding to it, regression is exactly what has happened to the Padres. They were winning a lot more games than their run differential would predict. Now they are trending back towards the mean, which is what we should expect from them continuing to play at this level. Maybe their ability to score and prevent runs will improve going forward but I’m not making any predictions.
ah yes the ol’ run differential. Doesn’t always hold well for teams with a back end of the bullpen as primary strength – they usually win close games but lose by larger margins when they lose. Their run differential wasn’t great the past two years but they still won 90 and 93. But good luck over those 720+ games wasn’t the only acceptable explanation.
But yeah, they were never going to sustain the 96 win season that they were on pace for about two weeks ago with Pivetta and Musgrove out. So some expected regression there I agree.
But now we’re looking at a team that is without a doubt playing way below its norm offensively. Record-breakingly bad. I highly doubt every single hitter not named France or Sheets will continue to put up the significantly poorest numbers in their careers – that would be one of the more unlikely outcomes in sports history.
So when I say there will likely be corrective regression to the norm that’s what I mean. Most if not all of their best hitters will put up better than .600 OPS this season. Whether that’s enough to get to the playoffs remains to be seen.
Hey it’s all good boys. I appreciate both of you.
I’ve heard some theories about how run differential isn’t meaningful, but none that pass the arithmetic test. A team still needs to score more runs than it allows to win. Keep flipping that coin (the required 162 times) and you’re going to see win outcomes that closely match run differentials. Not perfectly, but more often closer to the mean than far away from it.
Another predictor you aren’t going to like is PECOTA. It currently has the Padres at just under .500 for the season. This forecast is based on the current roster and hasn’t changed much since Opening Day.
It can’t be easily understood using arithmetic and that presents a barrier to some.
I’m aware of PECOTA, OD and now. And you might not like that I’ve agreed to its projection. Positive regression for Padres hitters will happen though, and that’s the primary point I keep trying to make here.
I meant 320+ games
You can add to that list
Machado won’t end the season with a .176 BABip and when it regresses towards his career averages his BA and OPS will go up.
Fermin will regress upwards from 14 OPS+ towards his 83 OPS+ career averages
Bogaerts will end the season with a higher BA and OPS.
I am not sure what the cause is, but rarely does an entire team hit batting slumps at the same like the Padres have. Easy to blame it on Souza. Also possible to point at the team changing hands.
What the betting houses are looking at is that the hitters will likely regress towards the mean while the pitchers have done pretty much what was expected. If Pivetta and Musgrove return in the 2nd half and the hitters start to heat up with the weather, the Padres are in an enviable position.
I do think it is far easier and creates more clicks to cry wolf. People would rather point fingers, complain, and pitch a fit than really look at a situation logically.
Last season at this point the Reds were 3 games under and the woe is me crowd was in full fury. They ended up 83-79 and in the playoffs. That is why results are counted after 162 games, not 61.
One of the reasons I cite run differential is that it seems intuitive to me. No matter how much math someone knows or doesn’t know, everyone understands that winning involves scoring more runs. So if a team scores about as many runs as it allows over 162 games, their W-L record is going to be right around .500.
I’m not sure exactly how PECOTA works, but I think it uses historical production numbers for the players on the rosters, because that’s the only way I can imagine it would work. This says to me that all player contributions are being figured in at their mean performance levels. Based on this premise, the slumping Padres players would have to regress positively from here on in for the team to reach that breakeven point in wins predicted by the projection.
For sure run differential has more relevance in MLB than say, NFL, where high scoring offenses run up the score in blow outs, but may not be the best teams (and often aren’t) due to lack of big game defense.
A bad example of an offensive team that lacks a defense/pitching, but a good example for this comparison, is your Dodgers. Since they have one of the better offenses every year this past decade and also have a superior run differential, even though they don’t always have the top team pitching stats (though here’s where it’s a bad example because they also have good team pitching). If we look at the Padres and Dodgers over the past two seasons, the Dodgers have won just 8 more games than the Padres during those two seasons combined but have out-run-differentialed them by a whopping 298 to 172.
324 games is a large sample size, it’s not just explained by assuming the Padres somehow defied gravity for two years.
The Padres rarely do what I see teams like the Dodgers, Yankees and Braves do, and that’s blow a game out early then keep scoring when the opposition team puts its crappy mop up guys out there rest of game.
The Rays currently have the best record in the AL at 36-23 with a run differential of just +5. The Guardians lead their division with a nice record, but are just +6 in run differential. That’s worrisome I suppose for both teams, but in the case of the Rays, I would also argue that they’re style of play partly explains it: they’re 18th in slg%, 14th in runs scored, and 15th in runs allowed, but win a lot of close low-scoring games; they lead the league in saves and save opportunities. In MLB a lot of games are decided in the last couple of innings, teams with shut-down bullpens win most of those and often by just one run.
The correlation between Py W/L and actual W/L is very high.
Statistical models can explain only so much variability, and outliers are nearly always going to be a factor in the exercise. If you really want to get down in the statistical weeds, it’s reasonable to try to figure out why some data points don’t fit the model well, but the general rule is if the model output distributes normally (the bell curve), then the model is valid.
Are they worse than the Cubs ?
I’m gonna say yes, yes they are.
Pepper McKnight Gif here “that’s a bold strategy Cotton, let’s how it works out for ’em”
Is there a team that doesn’t have a 5 game losing streak this season?
The A’s longest is 4 games this season.
You can never count Preller out from making a splash but this is by far the fewest bullets he’s had to use at the deadline. Mayfield is a nice piece & Salas is a premium prospect. I think the pads probably want to keep Salas. Nothing can shock you w/ Preller but it feels like he’s going to have to shop below the top of the market for upgrades.
It’s amazing how well the Padres’ bullpen kept the team above .500, because the rest of the team looks pretty awful.
Is this it? When Preller is exposed as a gambler and not a GM? Don’t get me wrong, he made for some strong fodder. But made too many bad moves in the aggregate. He’ll get a FO position somewhere no doubt.
Probably head of a scouting department somewhere. Never again as a GM/PBO.
The Padres are most likely going to stay in the draft prospects and trade them for rentals until 2033 when those ugly contracts expire. Preller’s challenge is to get the right prospects (tradable right away as they are lousy at player development) and trade for the right rentals that can give you a couple of months of good production just to be competitive. Keep the fans interested and buying. WS? Sorry. That window has definitely closed.
I wish they turn it around
Mike Shildt saw the writing on the wall and got the hell out. You almost brought them to the Promised Land Mike !!!
Shildt was just lonely and needed more time to date
The Padres are a playoff team while missing their #1, #2, #3, and #5 starting pitchers and while their 4 best hitters from last season have a combined OPS of .627, 153 points lower than last season.
If even one of Pivetta or Musgrove return and when Machado, Tatis, and Merrill begin to turn it around that team is going to be scary.
lots of IFs there
“If” by Rudyard Kipling. It’s a cool poem, you should read it!
I used Dr. Bronners soap for years. Still no idea what that poem is about
If you think this team is ever going to hit you are waiting for groundhogs day
I agree it does feel like GHD. This might be the most frustrating season I’ve observed, and I was there back in the early days.
But do you really think Machado and Merrill will continue at .620 OPS ROS? Will Tatis really hit less than 5 HRs? Will Bogaerts, Laureano, Andujar, Fermin and all the bench players maintain sub .200 BA ROS season like they have the past 5 weeks? Sub .100 in Fermin’s case.
“ The Padres are a playoff team while missing their #1, #2, #3, and #5”
There’s absolutely no way that Michael King wasn’t one of the 3 best pitchers in that rotation so I’m going to say this is inaccurate.
Stammen and Souza are clueless; bring in Rob Thomson
You mean the guy who lost the Phillies’ clubhouse?
Where is Profar when we (they) need him the most?
Bring back Bochy. Bud Black for bench coach.
Lol
They should be okay. Manny and X are on a downward slide, but likely not completely finished. Tatis and Merrill should rebound. It’s difficult to predict how their SPs will recover, but if they can always add 1-2 #4-5 types to stay afloat.
Positive regression to the mean coming for Padres star players. Keep the faith, yall!
Preller will acquire another high leverage RP as their fix while the offense looks like a tee ball team
some key guys in the bullpen haven’t looked so great lately, either.
If the offense isn’t scoring very many runs, you might as well double down on preventing the other team from scoring.
Tatis is hitting .388/.455/.490 over his past 13 games while only striking out 10% of the time.
You could look at that line and say he’s not hitting for power, a .102 ISO is very Luis Arraez esq, but he’s definitely hitting.
It’s pretty crazy to me that the Padres and the Phillies have scored the fewest runs in baseball this year. I expect both teams will move much closer to middle of the pack going forward versus being bottom of the barrel. Last year the Pirates scored the fewest runs in baseball and today they rank 4th. Things can change quickly
I’m more worried about the rotation doing enough to compete versus the bats not turning it around, like some already have started to do so.