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18 Players Exchange Filing Figures

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Teams and arbitration-eligible players had until 7:00 pm Central to agree to terms or exchange filing figures. The vast majority agreed to salaries, either this afternoon or before November’s non-tender deadline to ensure they were offered contracts at all.

There were 18 cases where team and player did not align — none bigger than the record $13MM gap between the Tigers and Tarik Skubal. Nothing formally prevents players and teams from continuing negotiations. However, virtually every team takes a “file-and-trial” approach to the process. Clubs will mostly refuse to continue talks about one-year deals after this date. They’ll often make exceptions for discussions involving multi-year contracts or one-year deals with a club/mutual option. It’s unlikely that all of these players will end up getting to a hearing, but the majority probably will.

If the sides go to a hearing, a three-person arbitration panel will either choose the player’s or the team’s filing figure. (Hearings will run between January 26 and February 13.) The arbitrators cannot pick a midpoint. That’s designed to prevent the parties from anchoring by filing at extremely high or low figures. Teams’ preferences for the file-and-trial approach follows a similar logic. The idea is to deter players from submitting a higher number from which they could continue to negotiate until the hearing begins.

Unless otherwise noted, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported all filing figures for those who didn’t reach agreements. The list of players who could go to a hearing this winter (service time in parentheses):

Angels

  • Reid Detmers (3.159): Filed at $2.925MM, team filed at $2.625MM

Astros

  • Isaac Paredes (4.160): Filed at $9.95MM, team filed at $8.75MM
  • Yainer Diaz (3.035): Filed at $4.5MM, team filed at $3MM

Blue Jays

  • Eric Lauer (5.091): Filed at $5.75MM, team filed at $4.4MM (first reported by Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet)

Braves

  • Dylan Lee (3.150): Filed at $2.2MM, team filed at $2MM

Brewers

Marlins

Mariners

  • Bryce Miller (2.153): Filed at $2.625MM, team filed at $2.25MM

Nationals

Orioles

  • Keegan Akin (5.083): Filed at $3.375MM, team filed at $2.975MM
  • Kyle Bradish (3.160): Filed at $3.55MM, team filed at $2.875MM

Rays

  • Edwin Uceta (2.150): Filed at $1.525MM, team filed at $1.2MM

Reds

Royals

Tigers

Twins

  • Joe Ryan (4.033): Filed at $6.35MM, team filed at $5.85MM

Tigers, Tarik Skubal Likely Headed To Arbitration Hearing With $13MM Gap In Filing Figures

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The Tigers did not reach agreement with two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal on a deal to avoid arbitration this evening. They’re now likely headed for what would be the most significant hearing in memory. That’s due to an astronomical $13MM gap in the sides’ respective filing figures.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Skubal is seeking a $32MM salary, while the Tigers filed at $19MM. The sides are free to continue negotiations right up to the hearing time, but teams typically adopt a “file-and-trial” approach and cease talks on one-year deals after figures are exchanged. If it gets to a hearing, an arbitrator can only choose either Skubal’s number or the team’s. Arbitrators are not permitted to land on a middle ground, so the result would be very consequential.

If it gets to a hearing, Skubal will be shooting for the largest arbitration salary ever. That record is held by Juan Soto, who settled on a $31MM deal with the Yankees in his final year before free agency. Shohei Ohtani and the Angels agreed to a $30MM deal in his final year of arbitration eligibility. They’re the only two players to reach that benchmark. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed the loftiest deal in last winter’s class; he landed at $28.5MM.

While Skubal’s filing figure isn’t markedly above those of recent superstars, it would shatter the benchmark for pitchers. The arbitration process hasn’t rewarded high-end arms as handsomely as it does impact bats. In fact, no arb-eligible pitcher has commanded even $20MM. David Price still holds the record with a $19.75MM salary from back in 2015.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote about the potential for an historically significant hearing when examining Skubal’s arbitration case this morning. As Passan pointed out, the collective bargaining agreement allows players who are one year away from free agency to compare themselves not only to past arbitration precedents, but to free agents as well. There’s ample precedent for free agent pitchers commanding upwards of $30MM annually, with some late-career aces pulling more than $40MM per season on short-term deals. That provision hasn’t actually moved the market for arb-eligible pitchers forward to this point, however, and the aforementioned massive salaries for Soto, Ohtani and Guerrero were all agreed upon without a hearing.

The Tigers’ filing figure aligns with arbitration’s historical precedent against pitchers. It’s also much more aligned with the usual year-over-year escalating salaries associated with the process. Skubal received a $10.15MM salary last year. The largest yearly jump for a pitcher is held by Jacob deGrom, who earned a $9.6MM raise after winning his first career Cy Young in 2018. Detroit’s figure would give Skubal an $8.85MM boost after his second consecutive Cy Young award.

To a large extent, this serves as a test case for the arbitration process itself. That Price still holds the record for a pitcher shows how much the system has lagged when it comes to valuing arms (particularly in comparison to the escalating free agent prices for starters). Skubal and his representatives at the Boras Corporation are aiming to blow that wide open. That’d obviously be significant for the southpaw himself but would also go a long way toward raising the earning ceiling for future arms.

There’s no guarantee that this actually gets to a hearing. Player and team would have a lot of money at stake if it does, and they’d each avoid the unpredictability of relying on the arbitrators if they settle on a deal in the mid-$20MM range. However, this kind of situation is precisely why teams prefer the file-and-trial approach. That’s designed to prevent the player from filing well above their expected value to anchor future talks from a higher baseline. Refusing to continue negotiating after numbers are exchanged prevents that situation. If the player files very high, the club feels good about its chances of winning a lower than expected number at the hearing.

It all makes sense in theory, but the stakes of a potential hearing in this case are higher than any in team history. They’d need to operate for the next month or so with a $13MM range in their payroll projection, which could hinder short-term free agent or trade activity. Skubal is one year from free agency and trending towards the largest pitching contract ever. If the Tigers feel they have any chance to re-sign him, they may not want to run the risk of an inherently adversarial hearing.

There’d also be ramifications if they put him on the trade market — either before Opening Day or, far more likely, if they fall out of contention before the deadline. One year of Skubal would have immense trade value regardless of his salary, but he’d be much more appealing to other clubs on a $19MM sum than he would at $32MM.

Yankees’ Offer To Bellinger Reportedly Above $30MM AAV

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The Yankees have made multiple offers to Cody Bellinger in recent weeks. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports that the most recent had an average annual value north of $30MM. However, the sides are still held up on contract length.

Kuty writes that Bellinger’s camp continues to push for a seven-year contract. It’s not known how many years the Yankees are willing to go, but it has thus far apparently been less than seven. Jon Morosi of The MLB Network suggested earlier this week that the team was more comfortable with a four- or five-year commitment.

The rumored proposal from New York would put Bellinger in the range of the most expensive bats to sign this offseason, at least on an annual basis. Kyle Schwarber re-signed with the Phillies for five years and $150MM. Pete Alonso received a five-year, $155MM deal from Baltimore. If the Yankees get their wish regarding the contract length, Bellinger’s deal likely ends up looking a lot like the Schwarber and Alonso pacts. MLB Trade Rumors settled on a five-year, $140MM contract in our list of the top 50 free agents.

As Kuty notes, a contract exceeding $30MM a year would make Bellinger one of the highest-paid outfielders in the league. Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Mike Trout, and Mookie Betts (if he still counts) are the only outfielders making more than $30MM per season. It would also be a significant jump from his recent contracts, as the market has treated him with trepidation in previous years.

After the Dodgers moved on from Bellinger following the 2022 season, the Cubs scooped him up on a one-year, $17.5MM deal. Bellinger rewarded Chicago with a 20/20 campaign, but it wasn’t enough to land a long-term contract. He ended up back with the Cubs on a three-year, $80MM deal with opt-outs after each season. Bellinger didn’t opt out after a middling 2024 and was then traded to New York. The Yankees were able to land him just by sending over Cody Poteet and agreeing to pay all but $5MM left on Bellinger’s contract.

Bellinger unsurprisingly opted out of the final year of his deal after a strong season in New York. Regardless of where he ends up, he should be able to top the $25MM he was slated to make in 2026. Bellinger slugged 29 home runs last year, the most since his NL MVP campaign in 2019. He added 13 steals and nearly drove in 100 runs. Bellinger also provided stellar defense, with both Defensive Runs Saved (+11) and Outs Above Average (+7) praising his work in the field. Bellinger logged 300+ innings at all three outfield positions. He also made a handful of appearances at first base. The Yankees didn’t need his services in the infield with Paul Goldschmidt on board, but he could be an asset there if needed.

In addition to the considerable counting stats, Bellinger also made some improvements under the hood in 2025. He bumped his hard-hit rate to 37.9%. That mark is just above league average, but it’s a big improvement from recent seasons. Bellinger’s 31.4% hard-hit rate in 2023 was among the reasons he failed to secure a long-term deal after his first year with the Cubs. While he hit .307 that season, it was likely fueled by a career-high .319 BABIP. His xBA (.268) was nearly 40 points lower than his actual mark. Bellinger’s hard-hit rate improved to a still-underwhelming 32.9% in 2024, while his bat speed slipped to 69 mph, which ranked in the 13th percentile.

Bellinger also made more contact this past season. His 13.7% strikeout rate was the best mark of his career, as was his 7.6% swinging-strike rate. Bellinger ranked 26th among all qualified hitters with a 91% zone contact rate. He’d only been above 87% once in his career before 2025. Average batted ball metrics combined with elite contact skills could portend continued success for the 30-year-old Bellinger, particularly if he stays in New York. He slashed an uninspiring .241/.301/.414 on the road last year.

Brewers Hire Thad Levine As Special Advisor

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The Brewers have hired former Twins general manager Thad Levine as a special advisor in baseball operations, relays Adam McCalvy of MLB.com. This is Levine’s first job in MLB since he stepped down as Minnesota GM at the end of the 2024 season.

Although Levine held the GM title, he was never atop the baseball operations department. He worked as top lieutenant under chief baseball officer/president of baseball operations Derek Falvey from 2017-24. The Twins made four playoff appearances, three of which were behind AL Central titles, within the first seven seasons. They looked on their way to another postseason berth in 2024 before a late-season collapse dropped them to an 82-80 record and put them on the outside looking in.

Before his time in Minnesota, Levine spent more than a decade with the Rangers as an assistant GM. He’d worked in the Colorado front office prior to that. There was some thought that the Rockies could circle back to Levine when they dismissed GM Bill Schmidt at the beginning of the offseason, but there’s no indication he wound up receiving serious consideration.

The Brewers have three assistant GMs under president of baseball operations Matt Arnold: Will Hudgins, Matt Kleine and Karl Mueller. Levine joins Doug Melvin and Matt Klentak as former general managers with advisory titles.

The Best Fits For Cody Bellinger

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The top of the free agent position player market has not moved as quickly as it did in the previous couple offseasons. Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned.

That's not a huge surprise for the latter two hitters given the Boras Corporation's general willingness to wait deeper into the offseason if strong deals don't immediately materialize. Tucker and Bichette, the two best free agents, are respectively represented by Excel Sports Management and Vayner Sports. The slow offseason can't entirely be attributed to Boras. It's possible that Bellinger is waiting on Tucker while Bregman awaits resolution on the Bichette landing spot. There's a decent amount of overlap, especially among a handful of big-market franchises that have been relatively quiet in free agency thus far, in those respective markets.

Bellinger is a free agent for the third time in the past four years. He's hoping to finally command the long-term contract that alluded him in the two prior trips. He was always going to be limited to a one-year pillow deal in 2022 after consecutive down seasons led the Dodgers to non-tender him. A resurgent '23 campaign with the Cubs didn't lead teams to buy into him as a franchise altering addition. He returned to Chicago on a three-year deal with opt-outs, then was traded to the Yankees after an underwhelming 2024 campaign.

The long speculated connection worked beautifully. Bellinger's left-handed bat played very well at Yankee Stadium. He hit 29 home runs, his highest total in six years, while batting .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued him around five wins above replacement.

Teams could still quibble with some of his underlying splits. Bellinger was a league average hitter away from the short porch in the Bronx. His batted ball metrics remained middle of the pack, and his results outpaced his "expected" statistics from Statcast for a third straight season. The average batted ball data was a stumbling block for teams in prior offseasons -- both in his '23 free agent trip, and when the Cubs were shopping him last winter.

Will a third straight season of overperformance lead teams to conclude that Bellinger's plus contact skills outweigh the exit velocity concerns? He's one of the best left-on-left hitters in MLB, batting .329/.371/.546 against southpaws over the past three seasons. The average left-handed batter (.230/.299/.365) hits like Marcus Semien or Otto Lopez when he doesn't hold the platoon advantage.

Bellinger isn't attached to draft compensation because he was ineligible for the qualifying offer. His camp will surely look to play up the narrative that he has proven himself in three major markets over the course of his career. A five- or six-year contract seems like the median outcome for the 30-year-old former MVP. Jon Morosi of The MLB Network suggested on Wednesday that his camp may be looking for seven years.

Where might he end up?

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Pirates, Chris Devenski Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Pirates are in agreement with reliever Chris Devenski on a minor league contract, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. That presumably includes a Spring Training invite for the Suarez & Associates client.

Devenski was on and off the Mets’ active roster a few times throughout the 2025 season. The 35-year-old righty made it into 13 games overall, allowing four runs across 16 2/3 innings. He struck out 14 against five walks. Devenski also managed solid numbers with Triple-A Syracuse, where he pitched 37 2/3 frames of 3.35 ERA ball. He attacked the zone while posting a slightly below-average 21% strikeout rate at both levels.

That’s now 10 straight seasons in which the former 25th-round draft pick has pitched at the MLB level. Devenski was an All-Star in his second season as a member of the Astros. He has spent the majority of his career as a well-traveled long reliever. If he gets to the big leagues in Pittsburgh, they’d be his seventh MLB team. Devenski’s 92 MPH fastball velocity is below average, so he leans on a plus changeup as his most frequent offering.

There’s opportunity for Devenski to win a job out of camp. Dennis Santana, Gregory Soto, Isaac Mattson, and Justin Lawrence are locked into the Opening Day bullpen. They’ll hope that hard-throwing lefty Mason Montgomery — acquired from Tampa Bay as part of the Mike Burrows trade — locks down a job in Spring Training as well. That’d still leave as many as three bullpen roles up for grabs. Yohan Ramírez is out of options, but he’s a journeyman signed for barely more than the league minimum. Carmen Mlodzinski still has an option remaining, as do potential fifth starters Hunter Barco and Thomas Harrington.

Pirates To Designate Chase Shugart For Assignment

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The Pirates are designating reliever Chase Shugart for assignment, reports Jason Mackey of The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. They needed to create a 40-man roster spot for Ryan O’Hearn, whose two-year free agent contract was finalized this afternoon.

Pittsburgh acquired the 29-year-old Shugart in a minor trade with the Red Sox last offseason. The Texas product had only six games of MLB experience at the time. He made it into 35 contests in his first and potentially only season as a Pirate. Shugart managed a solid 3.40 earned run average across 45 innings. That came with well below-average strikeout (17.1%) and ground-ball (33.3%) marks, and the majority of his outings came in low-leverage situations.

The Bucs kept Shugart on the active roster for most of the season’s first half. He went on the injured list with left knee inflammation shortly before the All-Star Break. That cost him more than a month, and the team optioned him to Triple-A shortly after he returned. He only made three MLB appearances in the second half.

Shugart sits in the 94-95 MPH range with his four-seam fastball and sinker. He has a pair of breaking pitches, a low-80s sweeper and a cutter that sits around 90 MPH. It hasn’t led to many whiffs against big league hitters, but he has posted slightly better than average strikeout numbers in the minors. He also has better control than most up-and-down relievers.

There’s a decent chance he’ll get him some attention on the waiver wire. Shugart has one year of big league service time and has one minor league option remaining. The Pirates will trade him or put him on waivers within the next five days.

Tigers, Burch Smith Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers signed reliever Burch Smith to a minor league contract, reports Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free-Press. The righty receives an invitation to MLB camp and will be guaranteed a $1.5MM base salary if he makes the big league roster.

Smith, 36 in April, has played for seven big league clubs over a 15-year career that has taken him around the globe. Smith has pitched in Japan and Korea in addition to seven seasons at the Triple-A level. He has gotten to the majors in parts of six campaigns, working to a 5.79 ERA through 247 1/3 career innings.

The Oklahoma product’s most recent MLB action came in 2024. He divided that season evenly between the Marlins and Orioles, allowing just under five earned runs per nine over 56 1/3 frames. He spent last year on a minor league contract with the Pirates. Working for their Triple-A club in Indianapolis, Smith was tagged for a 7.08 ERA in 19 outings. He struck out nearly 27% of batters faced against an elevated 12.2% walk rate. The Pirates released him at the end of July.

Smith remained unsigned for the rest of the ’25 season. He has made a comeback in winter ball in the Dominican Republic, recording a 20:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio with three runs allowed in 15 1/3 innings. The Tigers add him to a deep collection of non-roster bullpen arms. Tanner Rainey, Sean Guenther, Scott Effross, Dugan Darnell, Jack Little, Tyler Mattison and Cole Waites have also signed minor league deals.

Takahiro Norimoto Weighing Offer From MLB Team

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Free agent relief pitcher Takahiro Norimoto has received an offer from a major league club, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The 35-year-old righty is weighing a move stateside but not firmly committed to making the jump. He’s also considering offers from clubs in Japan.

Norimoto has played 13 seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, all with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. A starter for most of that time, he has transitioned into the Eagles’ closer over the past two years. Norimoto has gone 48-53 in save opportunities. He posted a 3.46 earned run average in 2024 and is coming off a 3.02 mark across 56 2/3 frames last season.

Despite his decent numbers at the back of the Eagles’ bullpen, Norimoto isn’t a power arm. He hasn’t recorded a strikeout rate above 20% in any of the past four seasons. Norimoto fanned just 17.2% of batters faced against an 8.4% walk rate last year. FanGraphs writes that he sits around 92 MPH on his fastball and features an above-average splitter as his best secondary pitch. He seemingly projects as a middle reliever or depth arm at the major league level.

It’d be a surprise if Norimoto commands more than a cheap one-year MLB contract. It’s possible he explores major league interest as a leverage play in negotiations for potentially bigger money in Japan. Norimoto has nine-plus seasons of service time in his home country, so he’s an unrestricted free agent who can sign with any club in NPB or a foreign league. An MLB team would not owe the Eagles a posting fee. Feinsand notes that Norimoto is likely to decide whether he’ll make the move to MLB within the next few days.

Rockies To Sign Michael Lorenzen

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The Rockies are in agreement with Michael Lorenzen on a one-year, $8MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal includes a $9MM club option for the 2027 season. Colorado has an available 40-man roster spot and will finalize the deal once Lorenzen passes a physical. He’s represented by CAA Sports.

It’s the first MLB signing of the winter for Colorado, meaning it is also Paul DePodesta’s first notable pickup as their head of baseball operations. (The Red Sox are now the only team that hasn’t signed a big league free agent this offseason.) It’s likely to be the first of a few pitching adds for the rebuilding club. General manager Josh Byrnes said this week that they were hoping to bring in two experienced starters.

The Rockies very rarely add to their rotation via free agency. This is the first time they’ve added a free agent starter on a $5MM+ guarantee since the Kyle Kendrick signing in 2015. Coors Field obviously isn’t a preferred destination for most pitchers. A seven-year streak of finishing fourth or fifth in the NL West doesn’t help matters.

One thing they can certainly offer is opportunity. Lorenzen would be a sixth starter or swing arm for a lot of teams. He’ll get a guaranteed rotation spot in Colorado, where he lands behind Kyle Freeland as their most established arms. The 34-year-old righty has spent the past season and a half with the Royals. He worked at the back of Kansas City’s rotation for most of that time, including 26 starts last year. Lorenzen pitched to a 4.64 earned run average over 141 2/3 innings.

A multi-inning reliever early in his career with the Reds, Lorenzen prioritized a rotation opportunity upon getting to free agency after the 2021 season. He has bounced around on a handful of one-year deals that have generally given him a back-end starting job. This is the fifth consecutive offseason in which he commanded exactly one year on an MLB contract. The deals have all guaranteed between $4.5MM and $8.5MM and have come with five different teams: the Angels, Tigers, Rangers, and Royals. He has also been traded twice and is now on his seventh team overall.

Lorenzen has surpassed 130 innings in each of the past three seasons. He has required an injured list stint in four consecutive years, but a 2022 shoulder strain led to his only lengthy absence. His recent IL stints have been for minor issues: groin, hamstring, neck and oblique strains — none of which cost him more than a month.

The 6’3″ righty works with one of the deepest arsenals of any pitcher in MLB. Statcast’s tracking metrics identity seven distinct pitches, none of which he uses more than a quarter of the time. His four-seam fastball checks in around 94 MPH. He also throws a sinker, changeup, and four breaking pitches (slider, curveball, cutter, sweeper). Nothing stands out as plus in isolation, but he carves out decent results by mixing and matching. Lorenzen has a 4.10 ERA with a modest 19.3% strikeout rate against an average 8.7% walk percentage over the past four seasons.

Anything close to that production would make him one of Colorado’s best pitchers. Freeland was their only pitcher who made more than six starts and allowed fewer than 6.33 earned runs per nine innings. The rotation’s 6.65 ERA was historically terrible. Germán Márquez isn’t expected back in free agency. Antonio Senzatela was demoted to the bullpen late in the season and is expected to remain in long relief.

Freeland and Lorenzen are locked into the top two rotation spots. Ryan Feltner, Chase Dollander, Gabriel Hughes, Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon, McCade Brown and waiver claim Keegan Thompson are the other options on the 40-man roster. Feltner is the only one of the bunch who has had any kind of MLB success, and he’s coming off an injury-plagued season. Dollander is a former top 10 pick who held his own on the road but was terrible at Coors Field as a rookie. They’re penciled into the rotation for now, while the fifth starter job would be wide open if they don’t succeed in bringing in anyone else this offseason.

Lorenzen will eat some innings and raise the floor when he takes the ball. He’s not the caliber of pitcher who’s going to net a huge trade return, but the Rox will hope for a solid first half that allows them to flip him for a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images.

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