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CPBL’s Uni-President Lions Sign Keury Mella, Logan Ondrusek

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Last week, the Uni-President Lions of the Chinese Professional Baseball League announced the signings of right-handers Keury Mella and Logan Ondrusek (h/t to CPBL Stats). They join former Rockies catcher Wilin Rosario as one-time big leaguers who’ll be suiting up with the Lions in 2022.

Mella has appeared in each of the past five MLB seasons, although he’s never exceeded ten innings in a given year. The 28-year-old has made 21 appearances in relief, totaling 28 2/3 innings of 7.22 ERA ball. A former Giants prospect, he was traded to the Reds alongside Adam Duvall in the July 2015 Mike Leake deal. Mella spent parts of three years in Cincinnati and has pitched with the Diamondbacks in each of the last two years.

Last season, Mella made two MLB appearances but spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A, splitting the season between the top affiliates of the D-Backs and Pirates. The Dominican Republic native had a 5.44 ERA over 48 Triple-A innings, where he fanned 24.5% of opponents against a 9.9% walk rate. At the end of the season, he elected minor league free agency and will now embark on his first stint in an Asian professional league.

Ondrusek has a bit more experience in foreign leagues, but this will be his first stint in the CPBL. A frequently-utilized middle relief option with the Reds from 2010-14, he also appeared briefly with the 2016 Orioles. Altogether, the Texas native owns a 4.03 ERA across 277 MLB innings.

Since his time in Cincinnati, the 36-year-old (37 next month) logged some time with the Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. He’s bounced between a few Triple-A clubs, independent ball and appeared in the Mexican League. Ondrusek hooked on with the Giants on a minor league deal late last season, ultimately making nine appearances (including eight starts) with their top affiliate in Sacramento. He posted a 4.78 ERA with a slightly below average 21.8% strikeout rate but a strong 6.9% walk percentage across 43 1/3 innings there.

This Date In Transactions History: Three-Team Sonny Gray Trade

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On this date three years ago, the Reds, Mariners and Yankees reached agreement on a complex deal. Not only was it a fairly uncommon three-team trade, the deal pushed across the finish line only when the most notable player involved agreed to a three-year contract extension with his new club.

As part of that January 21, 2019 agreement, the Reds landed Sonny Gray. Cincinnati agreed to take on the right-hander’s $7.5MM salary for that season and promised him an additional $30.5MM through 2022. (The deal also included a $12.5MM club option for 2023). The Reds also landed left-handed pitching prospect Reiver Sanmartín from New York. In exchange, they sent infielder Shed Long Jr. to Seattle, who flipped their recent second-round draftee, Josh Stowers, to the Yankees.

Gray, an All-Star and AL Cy Young award finalist in 2015, was the obvious headliner of the deal. After a generally strong run in Oakland, he was sent to the Yankees at the 2017 trade deadline. Yet Gray didn’t fare as well during his year-plus in the Bronx, posting a mediocre 4.51 ERA/4.40 FIP across 195 2/3 innings. He dealt with particular struggles in the hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium, managing a 6.55 ERA in home contests during his time in pinstripes.

The Reds identified Gray as a target as they neared the end of a rebuild that had landed them in the basement in the NL Central for four straight seasons. They were rewarded for that decision, as Gray immediately turned things around in his new environs. He twirled 175 1/3 frames with a 2.87 ERA during his first season with the Reds, earning his second All-Star nod and some down ballot Cy Young votes in the process. Both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged Gray as the most valuable player on the team that year by Wins Above Replacement.

Gray’s excellent debut season wasn’t enough to get the Reds to the postseason, but Cincinnati did qualify for an expanded playoff the next year. His 56 innings of 3.70 ERA ball in the shortened season weren’t quite as impressive as his first-year numbers, but it was still solidly above-average output that contributed to a decent 31-29 team showing. The Reds didn’t make the playoffs over a full schedule last year, but Gray had another nice showing. The 32-year-old’s 4.19 ERA marked a bit of a step back, but a 27% strikeout rate, 47.2% ground-ball percentage and 3.85 SIERA suggest he may have been adversely affected by a poor defense behind him.

Cincinnati hasn’t had the team success they’d no doubt hoped to achieve over the past three seasons. That’s not any fault of Gray’s, though. Over 366 2/3 innings with the Reds, the Vanderbilt product has posted a 3.49 ERA/3.57 FIP, holding opposing hitters to a meager .208/.292/.345 line. Buying low after his struggles with the Yankees proved a shrewd move for former president Dick Williams, general manager Nick Krall, and the rest of the Cincinnati front office.

It remains to be seen whether Gray’s tenure with the Reds is finished. He’s still controllable for two seasons under the terms of the extension he signed at the time of the trade. The organization may be looking to cut payroll after the lockout, and Gray perhaps offers the best blend of recent productivity, availability in trade and 2022 salary (around $10.167MM) of anyone on the roster.

Whether Gray winds up dealt for a third time or opens next season in Cincinnati, the deal counts as a win for the Reds in retrospect. In fact, of the three prospects involved in the trade, Sanmartín is the only one who remains with the club that acquired him. He made his first two MLB starts during the final week of last season and could be a depth starter or long reliever for Cincinnati this year.

The other two prospects — Long and Stowers — were more well-regarded than Sanmartín at the time of the trade. Neither emerged as a long-term option in their new organizations, though. Long tallied 412 plate appearances over three years with Seattle. He hit well as a rookie but struggled between 2020-21, dealing with recurring injury issues around his right shin. Outrighted off the Mariners 40-man roster at the end of last season, the 26-year-old elected minor league free agency and has yet to sign elsewhere. Long figures to get another opportunity — even if just via minors pact — and he’s young enough to have a real chance at turning things around, but he didn’t make the kind of impact in Seattle their front office no doubt hoped he would.

Stowers, meanwhile, has yet to crack the majors. He spent two years in the New York farm system, then was traded to the Rangers last April as part of the deal that sent Rougned Odor to the Bronx. The 24-year-old outfielder (25 next month) then hit .220/.311/.466 across 351 plate appearances in Double-A. Not added to the Texas 40-man roster after the season, he’ll be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 draft once the lockout wraps up. As with Long, it’s far too early to close the books on Stowers’ career, but he’ll be available to the rest of the league for little more than an active roster spot in the coming months.

The deal also netted the Yankees the Reds’ Competitive Balance pick in the upcoming draft. New York used that selection (#38 overall) to nab left-hander T.J. Sikkema from the University of Missouri. Sikkema, who missed the entire 2021 campaign due to injury, was ranked by Baseball America as the #23 prospect in the Yankees’ system midseason. Between the lost minor league season in 2020 and last year’s injury-wrecked campaign, he’s still yet to advance to full season ball. Sikkema will be eligible for next offseason’s Rule 5 draft if not added to the New York 40-man roster, making the 2022 campaign a particularly important one for his future in the organization.

Note: This article was updated to reflect that the Yankees also acquired a Competitive Balance Selection from the Reds.

The Rockies’ Options For Replacing Trevor Story

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Uncertainty at shortstop is unfamiliar territory for the Rockies. Troy Tulowitzki held down the position for almost a decade, including a handful of seasons where he was among the best position players in the sport. Colorado traded Tulowitzki to the Blue Jays midway through the 2015 campaign, but they had a highly-regarded replacement waiting in the wings.

Trevor Story burst onto the big league scene with six home runs in his first four MLB games in April 2016. Essentially from that point forward, the position was his. Aside from a strikeout-fueled slump in his sophomore season, Story offered solid to plus production on both sides of the ball throughout his time in Denver. The most recent Colorado Opening Day shortstop not named Tulowitzki or Story? Clint Barmes, in 2006.

For the first time in a long time, the Rox now have a real question mark at shortstop. Story hit free agency. The club tagged him with a qualifying offer and has expressed some hope in a reunion, but there’s no indication that’s likely to happen. Assuming Story doesn’t return after the lockout, where could the Rockies go from here?

Unlike after Tulowitzki’s departure, Colorado wouldn’t appear to have a minor league replacement ready to step in. Only two of the top ten prospects in the farm system, according to Baseball America, are shortstops. One of them, Ezequiel Tovar, is 20 years old and finished the 2021 campaign in High-A. The other, Adael Amador, is 18 and has yet to advance to full season ball. So the Rockies will either need to move one of their current big leaguers up the defensive spectrum or replace Story externally.

Internal Options

  • Brendan Rodgers — A former #3 overall draftee and top prospect, Rodgers has appeared in the big leagues in three consecutive seasons but finally got his first extended MLB run last year. He held his own, hitting .284/.328/.470 across 415 plate appearances, starting a bit more than half the team’s games in the middle infield. The bulk of Rodgers’ work came at second base, and while that was partially in deference to Story, it also seems the club believes him better suited for the keystone. In November, Thomas Harding of MLB.com wrote that the front office’s “preferred plan is to keep Rodgers … at second base.”
  • Ryan McMahon — McMahon’s coming off a very nice season. He hit a capable .254/.331/.449 over 596 trips to the plate. More impressively, the 27-year-old rated as a Gold Glove caliber defender during a season split between second and third base. After the season, general manager Bill Schmidt expressed his belief McMahon could handle the rigors of regular shortstop duty. That’s not without risks, though. The California native moved to third base in high school and has never started a professional game — MLB or minor league — at shortstop. And while moving McMahon might effectively plug a hole at shortstop, it’d leave the team searching for third base help (perhaps explaining their interest in Kris Bryant?).
  • Garrett Hampson — If Rodgers and McMahon stay put at second and third base, respectively, that’d seemingly leave Hampson as the favorite for shortstop playing time among internal candidates. The speedster has bounced all around the diamond as a big leaguer. He was a primary middle infielder coming up through the minors, though, and he’d likely be a capable if unspectacular option defensively. The bigger question may be whether the Rockies are content to live with Hampson’s bat in the lineup regularly. Despite playing his home games at altitude, the 27-year-old is a .240/.298/.383 hitter in a bit more than 1,000 career plate appearances.
  • Alan Trejo — Trejo is the least experienced of the bunch, with only 28 big league games under his belt. The 25-year-old is probably better suited for a utility role than the regular shortstop job. He has a decent minor league track record but has never appeared on an organizational ranking at BA.

Free Agents

Aside from Story and Carlos Correa, free agency doesn’t offer much in the way of solutions at this point. Andrelton Simmons  is still an elite defender but coming off a miserable season at the plate. José Iglesias had a decent offensive showing but ran into uncharacteristic troubles with the glove. While Jonathan Villar can still moonlight at shortstop, he’s probably better suited for second/third base duty.

Trade Candidates

There are a few shortstops who might be available in trade. The D-Backs would surely listen to offers on Nick Ahmed. The Phillies might find an upgrade over Didi Gregorius. The A’s are likely to try to find a taker for Elvis Andrus. All three players will make fairly notable salaries in 2022, though, and none are definitive improvements over Colorado’s internal options.

The Rockies could act more aggressively in an attempt to land a younger, affordable player from teams with greater infield depth (i.e. the Royals’ Adalberto Mondesi or the Rays’ Taylor Walls). But that’d require parting with young talent from a farm system that Baseball America placed among the league’s bottom five in August. Coming off a 74-87 season, that’s probably not the most advisable course of action either.

Figuring out shortstop has likely been a point of emphasis this winter for Schmidt and his staff. Whether they elect to rely on an internal option without much MLB experience at the position or look outside the organization for help, it’s hard to envision a scenario where they enter 2022 as confident in their shortstop group as they’ve been for quite some time.

Braves, Michael Tonkin Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have signed reliever Michael Tonkin to a minor league contract, according to his transactions log at MLB.com. The 32-year-old returns to affiliated ball after splitting the 2021 campaign between independent ball and the Mexican League.

Tonkin has 141 big league appearances under his belt. He appeared in the majors with the Twins each season between 2013 and 2017, logging a personal-high 71 2/3 frames of relief in 2016. Tonkin pitched to a 5.02 ERA that season and owns a 4.43 mark overall, with some home run troubles (1.54 HR/9) offsetting passable strikeout and walk rates (23.1% and 8.4%, respectively).

Following the 2017 campaign, Minnesota released Tonkin to pitch in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. The California native worked to a 3.71 ERA across 51 frames with the Nippon-Ham Fighters the following season, then returned to North America on successive minor league deals with the Rangers, Brewers and D-Backs. Tonkin didn’t have a ton of Triple-A success in 2019, and he was cut loose by Arizona during the 2020 pandemic freeze.

Collective Bargaining Issues: International Draft

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Last week, Major League Baseball presented a proposal on (some) core economics to the MLB Players Association. Among the features included in the league’s offer: the implementation of a draft for the acquisition of international amateur players.

The league’s interest in an international draft is nothing new. MLB pushed for its inclusion during negotiations on the 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement as well. The MLBPA didn’t agree to one during the last round of CBA talks, although the union did consent to a modification of the existing international signing period setup. In the last CBA, team spending pools allotted for international amateur signees were hard-capped. That proved a much tighter restriction than had been in place under the previous CBA, when teams could exceed their allotted bonus pools (and often did in dramatic fashion) so long as they were willing to accept spending limitations in each of the subsequent two seasons.

Thus far in CBA negotiations, the union has continued to propose alternatives to an international draft, report Maria Torres, Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic. However, as The Athletic covers in a lengthy and detailed piece, members of various constituencies — MLB, the MLBPA, player reps, buscones (essentially hybrid trainers/agents for Latin American amateurs), players and team officials — believe the process for acquiring amateur players from Latin America needs some form of adjustment.

Under the current system, amateur players not subject to the domestic draft (i.e. those outside the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico) are eligible to sign with clubs after they turn 16 years old. While players have to wait until that age to officially sign, however, it is common practice for teams to come to verbal agreements with prospects multiple years in advance as part of a race for talent that The Athletic writes has accelerated since the introduction of hard caps.

The league has pointed to a desire to stamp out such early agreements as justification for its desire for a draft. Those kinds of early deals can leave players out in the cold. Teams can agree to verbal deals with players that, when summed together, exceed the value of their allotted cap. With the rules prohibiting clubs from honoring all their commitments, the team may circle back to second or third tier prospects and require that they lower their bonus demand. The player often has little recourse but to do so. Unlike a domestic high school prospect, international signees don’t typically have a looming college commitment as negotiating leverage. And while they could try to shop their services to other teams, many clubs will already have verbally committed the entirety of their bonus pools to other players in the signing class.

That said, the union doesn’t seem to agree that an international draft is the optimal solution. Implementing a draft inherently removes the player’s flexibility to choose their first employer, an element which the union finds concerning. According to The Athletic, the MLBPA would prefer the league implement and stringently enforce a ban on verbal agreements with players below the age of 15. The union is also pursuing more flexibility for teams to roll over funds from their annual bonus pools, which isn’t permitted under the current system.

In addition to concerns about early agreements, The Athletic article raises myriad other problems with the current setup. Ulises Cabrera, a player representative with Octagon, claims to Torres and Rosenthal that some scouts have taken under-the-table payments from buscones to arrange deals with players from outside their assigned geographical purview. The piece also goes into detail about concerns including lesser pay for international prospects relative to domestic draftees of a similar caliber and eradicating performance-enhancing drug use. It is well worth reading in full for a picture of the numerous issues that need to be ironed out.

Cardinals Didn’t Actively Pursue Free Agent Shortstop Help Before The Lockout

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The Cardinals have entered each of the past four seasons with Paul DeJong as the Opening Day shortstop. He’d earned the starting nod in 2018 after hitting .285/.325/.532 across 443 plate appearances as a rookie the year prior. DeJong’s next two seasons weren’t quite as strong, but he still combined slightly above-average offense with highly-regarded glovework.

Over the last two years, though, DeJong’s production at the dish has tailed off. Going back to the start of 2020, he’s just a .213/.295/.378 hitter over 576 trips to the plate. That led to a fall down the batting order and eventually, a reduction in playing time. Edmundo Sosa took the lion’s share of at-bats in the season’s final month, and erstwhile skipper Mike Shildt turned to Sosa in a must-win Wild Card game.

With how the second half of the season played out, it seemed like DeJong could wind up as a trade candidate this winter. The free agent shortstop class was loaded with stars, and the Cardinals don’t have many obvious areas of need on the position player side. Yet there was no indication St. Louis made much effort to move DeJong in the early stages of the offseason, and Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch now writes that the Cardinals “were not active in discussions with any player in this marquee class of free-agent shortstops” prior to the lockout.

While it’s possible the team ignites free agent discussions after the transactions freeze — Carlos Correa and Trevor Story remain available — it seems likelier shortstop will be DeJong’s job to lose. Not only was he not the subject of any trade rumors of note, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch gave DeJong a public vote of confidence at November’s GM Meetings. According to Goold, Cardinals executives also privately expressed confidence in DeJong’s ability to right the ship and reclaim the shortstop job in 2022. (Those conversations also occurred before the lockout, which includes a prohibition on contact between team staff and players on the 40-man roster).

DeJong’s contact rate and overall average exit velocity have each dipped over the past couple seasons. Yet he actually barreled balls up at a career-best 10.6% clip last year, and his exit velocity on balls hit in the air hasn’t meaningfully changed. That provides some reason for optimism DeJong’s offensive production can improve, particularly if last season’s .212 batting average on balls in play regresses closer to his .282 career mark. The 28-year-old isn’t merely resting on his laurels awaiting better batted ball fortune, however, as he chats with Goold about changes he’s made to his offseason training routine.

Regardless of whether he rebounds offensively, DeJong should be a key part of a high-end defensive infield. He’s coming off a season regarded highly by both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average, and DRS has pegged DeJong as a plus gloveman throughout his career. Sosa remains on hand as a potential fallback option, coming off a nice .271/.346/.389 showing. DeJong is guaranteed around $6.167MM next season and is controllable through 2025 under the terms of the contract extension he signed four seasons ago.

MLBPA Expected To Present Next Economics Proposal On January 24

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JANUARY 20: The league and players union are planning to meet next Monday, January 24, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (on Twitter). At that sit-down, the MLBPA is expected to present a counter-offer to MLB’s most recent economics proposal. It’ll mark the second in-person meeting between the parties since the beginning of the lockout. MLB’s most recent offer was made via videoconference.

JANUARY 19: The MLB Players Association is preparing its response to the proposal made by Major League Baseball last week, tweets Jon Heyman of the MLB Network. Heyman adds that the union is expected to put its next offer on the table within a matter of days.

The league broached some features of core economics last Thursday, marking the first instance of discussion between the two sides on any especially contentious issues since MLB instituted a lockout on December 2. The league’s offer didn’t address all the most pertinent issues, though, with no mention of free agency eligibility or the competitive balance tax. Instead, MLB’s proposal focused on such topics as the draft order, arbitration, possible solutions to service time manipulation and playoff expansion, among others.

According to various reports, the players were generally dissatisfied with the league’s decision not to cover free agency or the luxury tax. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the union try to reignite discussions on those issues, as the MLBPA is seeking earlier paths for players to potentially reach the open market and dramatically heightened tax thresholds.

Time is dwindling for the parties to make significant progress in talks if they’re to avoid interruptions to Spring Training, as Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic wrote this morning. Exhibition play is scheduled to begin February 26, and Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote a few weeks ago that Spring Training would likely be delayed if there weren’t notable developments by the start of next month.

Draft Prospect Peyton Pallette To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Peyton Pallette, a pitcher at the University of Arkansas, has sustained a UCL injury that’ll require Tommy John surgery, as first reported by Kendall Rogers of D1 Baseball. That’ll obviously end Pallette’s third season in Fayetteville before it begins, with TJS procedures typically requiring a recovery timeline in the 14-16 month range.

It’s a crushing blow for the Razorbacks, as Pallette had been the expected ace of a team with legitimate national championship aspirations. It’s also a very notable development for major league teams, with the 6’1″ right-hander projecting as one of the top pitchers in the upcoming amateur draft. Earlier this week, Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo slotted Pallette as the class’ #13 overall prospect. Among college pitchers, only Tennessee’s Blake Tidwell (#12) ranked higher.

Pallette boasts a power arsenal, with Collazo writing that he typically sits in the 93-95 MPH range and has been clocked up to 99. His top secondary weapon is an impressive curveball with elite raw spin rates, while he also generates some promising arm-side action on his changeup. Pallette only made four relief appearances before the 2020 college season was canceled due to the pandemic, but he emerged as a key member of the Hogs’ starting staff last year.

Across 15 appearances (including 11 starts), Pallette worked 56 innings with a 4.02 ERA. He fanned 27.2% of opposing hitters against an 8.1% walk rate. He suffered a season-ending elbow injury last May, however, missing out on Arkansas’ run to super regionals. While it looked for a while as if he’d be able to rehab from that issue and return to the mound this season, that’ll unfortunately prove not to be the case.

It remains to be seen how significant a blow the surgery will prove to Pallette’s draft stock. Upon learning of the procedure, BA dropped him to 29th in their overall rankings. As that suggests, it’s not out of the question he still comes off the board in the first round. Last summer, the Blue Jays selected Ole Miss righty Gunnar Hoglund 19th overall, despite the fact that he’d undergone his own Tommy John procedure two months prior. Hoglund had a lengthier track record of success as a starting pitcher than Pallette has compiled, though. Perhaps a more apt reference point may be former LSU hurler Jaden Hill, selected 44th overall by the Rockies despite undergoing TJS after seven starts during his first season as a full-time rotation member.

CPBL’s Wei Chuan Dragons Sign Ronny Rodriguez

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The Wei Chuan Dragons of Taiwan’s Chinese Professional Baseball League announced this afternoon they’ve agreed to a deal with infielder Ronny Rodríguez (h/t to CPBL Stats). It’ll be the first CPBL action for the 29-year-old, who spent some time in Japan last season as a member of the Nippon-Ham Fighters.

Rodríguez has two seasons of big league experience, logging time at all four infield positions with the Tigers between 2018-19. After seven seasons in the Indians organization, Rodríguez signed with Detroit as a minor league free agent over the 2017-18 offseason. He earned his first MLB call in May 2018 and tallied 206 plate appearances across 62 games as a rookie.

Despite hitting just .220/.256/.335 during his debut campaign, the right-handed hitting Rodríguez received fairly significant run the following season. He appeared in a bit more than half of Detroit’s games and showed intriguing power, popping 14 home runs with an impressive .217 ISO (slugging minus batting average). Yet Rodríguez also punched out at an alarming 27.9% clip while walking in only 4.4% of his plate appearances, contributing to an untenable .252 on-base percentage.

The Brewers claimed Rodríguez off waivers the following offseason, but he never appeared in a game with Milwaukee. He spent the bulk of the 2020 campaign at their alternate training site before being outrighted off the roster that September. Rodríguez’s jump to NPB last season proved unsuccessful, as he stumbled to a .197/.216/.426 mark across 125 plate appearances with the Fighters. He’ll try to more closely approximate the .293/.324/.473 line he’s compiled in parts of four Triple-A seasons during his first year with the Dragons.

MLBTR Poll: Carlos Rodon’s Contract

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The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly before the transactions freeze. Carlos Rodón and Clayton Kershaw are the clear top two starters remaining, and it seems Kershaw’s market could be limited by geographical concerns. That’d leave Rodón as the lone potential top-of-the-rotation arm available in free agency, but his status is complicated by health questions.

Rodón’s story has been covered a few times this offseason. After a few injury-plagued years, the former #3 overall pick broke out with an ace-caliber first half. He was a deserved All-Star and on a potential Cy Young pace until hitting the injured list with discomfort in his throwing shoulder in August. He missed a few weeks — albeit after it was apparent the White Sox were coasting to an AL Central title — before returning to make a few starts at the end of the season.

While Rodón continued to be effective after that IL stint, the average velocity on both his fastball and slider ticked down a couple miles per hour. Rodón’s fastball velocity ramped back up during his lone postseason start (his slider speed did not), but he was knocked out after just 2 2/3 innings during a rough outing against the Astros. The White Sox were eliminated before he got another opportunity to take the hill.

It wasn’t an ideal finish, but Rodón’s season-long production was excellent. He posted a 2.37 ERA with a massive 34.6% strikeout rate over 132 2/3 regular season innings, showcasing dominant swing-and-miss stuff at his best. Yet the White Sox declined to make the 29-year-old a qualifying offer, perhaps indicating some trepidation on the club’s part about his health. Given that durability uncertainty, MLBTR forecasted Rodón to take a one-year, $25MM deal in hopes of duplicating his excellent 2021 numbers in search of nine figures next offseason.

That doesn’t seem to be a course of action Rodón’s considering — or, at least, it wasn’t on the table early in the offseason. Agent Scott Boras told reporters in November they’d have rejected a QO had the Sox made one, saying the southpaw was on the hunt for a multi-year deal. Yet there were essentially no substantive rumors regarding Rodón in the weeks leading up to the lockout, leaving his market highly uncertain. MLBTR’s Steve Adams examined his best potential landing spots last month.

What kind of deal might Rodón command? Perhaps the market’s other starters can provide some idea. Max Scherzer landed the biggest contract of any starter this offseason, signing for a whopping $130MM over three years. He’s a unique case, with the next couple tiers offering cleaner possible comps. Robbie Ray received five guaranteed years and $115MM, with an opt-out possibility after the third season. Kevin Gausman signed for five years and $110MM.

Aside from that trio of nine-figure hurlers, the biggest starting pitching deals went to Eduardo Rodríguez (five years/$77MM, with an opt-out clause after the second season), Marcus Stroman (three years/$71MM, with an opt-out after the second season) and Jon Gray (four years/$56MM). Below them are Steven Matz (four years/$44MM) and Anthony DeSclafani (three years/$36MM).

Where will Rodón fit into that mix? What does the MLBTR readership think his post-lockout contract will be?

(poll links for app users)

 

 

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