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Marlins Acquire Jonathan Villar

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The Marlins have acquired infielder Jonathan Villar from the Orioles, as Craig Mish of MLB Network first reported (via Twitter). Lefty Easton Lucas is going back in return.

The Marlins have designated JT Riddle and Tayron Guerrero to create roster space. Previously dropped from the Baltimore 40-man, Villar was projected by MLBTR to earn $10.4MM in arbitration.

Villar enters his final season of arbitration control, so he’s not necessarily a long-term asset for the rebuilding Marlins. That said, it’s not hard to understand the thought process here. Villar has been a productive player the past few seasons, especially in 2019. Last year, he slashed .273/.339/.453 (107 wRC+) while playing in all 162 games for Baltimore. He started 158 of them somewhere on the middle infield. Between that durability, defensive profile and offense (bolstered by elite baserunning), Villar was worth exactly 4 wins above replacement, per Fangraphs. Finding that level of player for around $10MM isn’t easy.

Miami has Miguel Rojas and prospect Isan Díaz ticketed for much of the club’s middle infield work, so it’ll be interesting to see how manager Don Mattingly deploys Villar. Rojas, while a gifted defender, has never hit much, so it’s possible he’ll take on more of a utility role with Villar in the fold. It’d be a bit more surprising to see Villar cut into Díaz’s playing time. Speculatively, though, Díaz has faced some questions about his ability to stick at second base coming up through the minors. Perhaps Miami could look to expose him to other positions as they identify who shapes up as a long-term piece.

Riddle and Guerrero, meanwhile, will head out to make way for Villar and Jesus Aguilar, who was acquired from Tampa Bay on waivers. Riddle, a 28-year-old infielder, has never hit in parts of three seasons in Miami, combining for a .229/.269/.368 slash over 718 plate appearances. Guerrero, also 28, flashed power stuff out of the bullpen but never got quite as many swings and misses as one might expect. With an untenable 13.6% career walk rate, he ran out of leash in Miami.

It’s possible Villar and Aguilar could themselves wind up as trade candidates next season. If they produce, Miami could be motivated to flip them off to a team more positioned to contend in the short-term. Given the low acquisition costs of today’s moves, it’s hard to question the logic.

In Lucas, Baltimore brings aboard a recent 14th round pick out of Pepperdine. GM Mike Elias voiced an expectation that Lucas could someday mature into a back-end starter  (via Roch Kubatko of MASN), but he was not rated among the Marlins’ top prospects. Instead, the decision to waive, and eventually trade, Villar seems motivated almost entirely by a desire to clear his projected salary off the books.

Reds Non-Tender Kevin Gausman

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The Reds have non-tendered Kevin Gausman, reports Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twtter). The righty’s $10.6MM arbitration projection apparently proved too lofty.

Cincinnati grabbed Gausman off waivers from Atlanta in August and let him work out of the bullpen down the stretch. While he did some solid work for the Reds, he never seemed especially likely to return at that price. Gausman struggled mightily to keep runs off the board as a starter with the Braves over the season’s first four months.

That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the veteran draw strong interest as a free agent. He’ll presumably attract teams in need of starting and relief depth. He is coming off a career-best strikeout rate (25.3%), although some of that was a reflection of his quality work in shorter stints.

With five-plus years of service, Gausman would’ve been ticketed for free agency at the end of next season. He’ll hit the open market a year earlier than expected, entering his age-29 season.

Giants Non-Tender Kevin Pillar

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The Giants have non-tendered center fielder Kevin Pillar, according to Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). He’ll head onto the open market.

Set to reach his 31st birthday in January, Pillar was slated to earn a projected $9.7MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. That proved too rich for the San Francisco organization, which played Pillar regularly after picking him up early in the 2019 season from the Blue Jays.

Frankly, it’s not surprising to see the Giants pass at that price. Pillar is a gritty performer who still makes his share of highlight-reel plays and has good pop for an up-the-middle player. But advanced analysis suggests he has lost a step in the field and he continues to turn in cringeworthy on-base numbers.

Last season, Pillar slashed just .259/.287/.432 (85 wRC+). That marked his fourth consecutive season of offensive performance more than ten percent below league average. When Pillar was an elite defender in center, that perhaps would have sufficed, even at a relatively lofty price point. However, he’s rated as a mere average center fielder the past two season, combining for -7 defensive runs saved and +2 runs per Ultimate Zone Rating. Statcast, meanwhile, pegged him as a 51st percentile outfielder in 2019. Combined with his lackluster bat, that defensive downturn proved too much for the Giants.

A’s Non-Tender Treinen, Phegley, Buchter

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The A’s have non-tendered reliever Blake Treinen, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle (via Twitter). He’d been projected for a $7.8MM salary, which the low-payroll A’s evidently found too steep. Additionally, the club is parting ways with reliever Ryan Buchter and catcher Josh Phegley, Slusser adds (via Twitter). Phegley had been projected for $2.2MM, while Buchter was in line for around $1.8MM.

Today’s news perhaps isn’t too surprising; MLBTR’s Jeff Todd and Steve Adams identified Treinen as a non-tender candidate last week. Oakland doesn’t figure to have much wiggle room in the budget this offseason, no doubt contributing to their efforts to find a taker for Treinen, Jurickson Profar ($5.8MM projection), and Phegley before tonight’s non-tender deadline. Profar ultimately landed in San Diego, while Treinen and Phegley were let go. Despite some late interest from the Yankees, though, the A’s were unable to match up on a Treinen deal.

Such an outcome would have been unthinkable a year ago. Treinen finished sixth in AL Cy Young voting in 2018, reflecting his otherworldly season. That year, he tossed 80.1 innings with a 0.78 ERA and sparkling peripherals. His 31.8% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk rate were easily the best numbers he’d put up since moving to the bullpen for good in 2015. Toss in Treinen’s typically strong ground ball ability (51.9% ground ball rate) and he was quite arguably baseball’s best reliever just a season ago.

Unfortunately, everything went backwards in 2019. Treinen’s ERA jumped more than four runs per nine to an unsightly 4.91. His strikeout rate regressed to a pedestrian 22.2%, while his walk rate more than doubled to a career-worst 13.9%. On top of all that, Treinen’s ground ball rate- his calling card dating back to his time as a National- fell nearly ten points. All that said, Treinen still boasts a high-90’s fastball and is one year removed from utter dominance, so he’ll surely attract interest. New York could be expected to touch base with his camp now that he’s a free agent, but almost any team in baseball could seek to add his upside to their bullpen.

Phegley, like Treinen, evidently failed to drum up significant trade interest. The 31-year-old slashed .239/.282/.411 (82 wRC+) in 342 plate appearances this season. While that’s actually solid for a catcher, he rated extremely poorly as a pitch framer, per Baseball Prospectus, which placed him 107th out of 113 backstops leaguewide. With the A’s acquiring Austin Allen to back up Sean Murphy in today’s Profar trade, the writing was on the wall for Phegley.

Buchter, meanwhile, pitched to a 2.98 ERA, making today’s news a bit surprising at first glance. However, that was the product of an unsustainable 91.4% strand rate, as Buchter’s 4.96 FIP suggests. His walk rate spiked to an alarming 11.6%, and Buchter’s always been a fly-ball pitcher. The home run finally caught up to him in 2019. Nevertheless, he comes with an additional season of arbitration control beyond 2020 and has sported an above-average strikeout rate in four consecutive seasons, so teams looking for left-handed bullpen help could certainly take an interest in him in free agency.

 

Indians Non-Tender Kevin Plawecki, James Hoyt

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The Indians have non-tendered catcher Kevin Plawecki and reliever James Hoyt, tweets Zack Meisel of the Athletic. Plawecki had been projected for a $1.5MM salary, while Hoyt was not yet arbitration-eligible.

The end of Plawecki’s tenure with the Indians looked like a formality after they acquired fellow backstop Sandy Leon from the Red Sox earlier Monday. Of course, it wasn’t what Cleveland had in mind when it acquired Plawecki, a former top 100 prospect, from the Mets last offseason. But the 28-year-old Plawecki wound up making for an unproductive backup to Roberto Perez in 2019, as he hit a subpar .222/.287/.342 with three home runs in 174 trips to the plate.

The Indians designated Hoyt when they traded for Leon, making it no surprise he’s on their non-tendered list. The former Astro fared well over an 8 1/3-inning sample size with the Indians in 2019, but the majority of the right-hander’s work came with Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate. Hoyt posted a 3.43 ERA/3.98 FIP with 10.29 K/9, 4.29 BB/9 and a 53.4 percent groundball rate in 42 innings at the minors’ highest level this year.

Rays Non-Tender Guillermo Heredia

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The Rays have non-tendered outfielder Guillermo Heredia, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). He’ll head onto a market that’s hurting for center field capable players.

Heredia had projected to earn a relatively modest $1.1MM salary. But the Rays decided against paying it and obviously weren’t able to find another team that was interested in doing so instead.

Heredia lasts just one season in Tampa after coming over alongside Mike Zunino in a trade with the Mariners. In 231 plate appearances as a Ray, Heredia slashed just .225/.306/.363 (82 wRC+), right in line with his career body of work.

While defensive metrics have never loved Heredia in center field, he’s typically rated quite well in the corners and continues to garner some time up the middle. Prior to last season, he’d shown strong bat-to-ball skills, and he’s always been a patient hitter. Teams presumably won’t view Heredia as an everyday option, but it’s not hard to imagine him generating interest from teams in search of outfield depth. If Heredia gets on track elsewhere, he’ll be arbitration-eligible twice more.

KBO’s KT Wiz Re-Sign William Cuevas

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The KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization announced they have re-signed right-hander William Cuevas (h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO). The deal comes with a $900K guarantee, with an additional $100K available in incentives.

Cuevas, 29, pitched in parts of three MLB seasons with the Red Sox and Tigers, although he combined for only 22.1 innings at the highest level. He’d typically been on hand as high minors starting pitching depth between 2015-18. Cuevas is probably most well-known for his time with the Red Sox, who originally signed him out of Venezuela a decade ago. In addition to Detroit and Boston, Cuevas briefly pitched in the Marlins’ system, although he never made the big leagues with Miami.

Cuevas made the jump to Korea after the 2018 season. In his first season with the Wiz, he tossed 184 passable innings. His 3.62 ERA ranked 14th among 27 qualifiers, per MyKBO Stats, while his 17.8% strikeout rate (11th) and 8.3% walk rate (22nd) were more serviceable than remarkable. Nevertheless, the Wiz were evidently encouraged enough to commit one of their three roster spots available for foreign-born players to Cuevas in 2020.

Brewers Willing To Listen On Josh Hader Trade

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Brewers’ star reliever Josh Hader is “available” in trade, reports the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. While Rosenthal indicates that no deal is close, Hader’s inclusion on the trade market could make for one of the more fascinating storylines of the coming months.

The 25-year-old southpaw has emerged as perhaps the best reliever in baseball since making his MLB debut in 2017. For his career, Hader has tossed 204.2 relief innings with a 2.42 ERA and an otherworldly 44.6% strikeout rate. Working without a set role and capable of handling multiple innings in an outing, Hader has exceeded 75 innings each of the last two seasons, all the while recording dominant strikeout numbers.

If there’s a blemish on Hader’s resume, he was a bit home run prone in 2019. He was hardly unique in that regard, of course, but Hader’s 15 home runs allowed pushed his ERA to a career-worst (albeit still stellar) 2.62. That’s not to diminish, though, just how dominant Hader has been. His 47.8% strikeout rate last year was easily the league’s best (minimum 50 innings); the 6.1 percentage point gap between Hader and second-place Nick Anderson equaled the gap between Anderson and fifteenth-place Chris Sale.

Why would the Brewers consider moving Hader coming off back-to-back playoff berths of which he was an integral part? Rosenthal argues it’s simply the nature of being a low payroll organization; the front office can never afford to completely shut itself out from any opportunity. That’s not to say Hader’s priced himself out of Milwaukee. Hader qualified for Super Two and is projected for an extremely affordable $4.6MM salary, although Rosenthal notes that Hader’s reps at CAA figure to argue for something a bit greater based on Hader’s status as a player of “special accomplishment.”

Regardless of whether that argument proves successful, Hader certainly remains a bargain. He won’t be eligible for free agency until after the 2023 season. His employer, be it the Brewers or some eventual trade partner, wouldn’t be committed to any long-term expenditure if he were to regress and/or suffer an injury. Perhaps no reliever in history can boast of Hader’s recent combination of dominance and volume.

One speculative target whom Rosenthal points to is the Mets, although he adds it’s unclear if New York and Milwaukee have actually discussed a Hader trade. New York is certainly on the hunt for bullpen help, and Mets’ GM Brodie Van Wagenen co-represented Hader at CAA before taking over in Flushing. As Rosenthal notes, Van Wagenen has shown an affinity for pursuing his former clients in trade and/or free agency. While the Mets’ farm system has been depleted in recent months (most notably when Van Wagenen parted with Jarred Kelenic and Justin Dunn to bring in former client Robinson Canó), Rosenthal speculates that New York could move pieces directly off its big league roster to facilitate a deal.

That said, virtually every present contender- or team angling towards contention in the near future- figures to have some level of interest in Hader. He’s affordable enough to fit into any team’s budget, and he would be the biggest weapon in essentially any bullpen he’s part of. As Rosenthal notes, some clubs could have concerns that Hader’s unconventionally high volume might eventually catch up with him. To this point, though, Hader’s shown no sign of letting up. Any slight downturn in performance in 2019 can be explained by the liveliness of the baseball, and he’s never had a stint on the injured list.

With all the appeals in Hader’s profile, Milwaukee has little urgency to make a move. If no one meets their exorbitant asking price, the Brewers could certainly bring Hader back and hope for similar dominance moving forward. Listening to offers is hardly the same as aggressively shopping a player. Perhaps nothing will come together in the long run.

Yet Hader’s situation will be fascinating to follow. With free agency starved for relievers, teams set on acquiring one with a high-end track record will have to work the trade market. No one can quite match the track record Hader’s put together over the past few seasons, setting the stage for a potential blockbuster.

Dodgers, Scott Alexander Avoid Arbitration

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The Dodgers have agreed to terms with left-hander Scott Alexander on a one-year, $875K contract to avoid arbitration, reports Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Alexander falls a bit shy of his $1MM projected salary.

The 30-year-old looked like a potential non-tender candidate, perhaps explaining his decision to settle for slightly less than expected. An integral part of the Los Angeles bullpen in 2018, Alexander was limited to just 28 games last season, none after June 5. Alexander suffered a season-ending forearm issue in his throwing arm, which culminated in surgery to relieve nerve irritation in September.

Alexander’s time in LA has been a bit of a mixed bag. Over the past two years, he’s given the Dodgers 83.1 innings with a 3.67 ERA and mediocre strikeout (18.9%) and walk (9.9%) rates. Alexander’s an elite ground-ball specialist, though. His 68.5% ground ball rate the past two seasons trails only Zack Britton among still-active pitchers (minimum 50 innings). The former sixth-round pick turned those worm-burners into stellar results with the 2017 Royals, spurring the Dodgers to part with fairly well-regarded pitching prospect Trevor Oaks to bring Alexander aboard.

Predictably, Alexander has been a bit better retiring lefties (.250/316/.328) than righties (.253/.325/.363) over the course of his career. The Dodgers already have Adam Kolarek on hand as a more extreme lefty specialist, although the three-batter minimum rule likely to be instituted in 2020 could adversely affect both hurlers.

Today’s news doesn’t cement Alexander’s status with the Dodgers. Arbitration salaries don’t become fully guaranteed until the start of the regular season, so LA could yet choose to part ways later on at minimal cost. Alexander will, though, at least keep his 40-man roster spot for the time being. If he sticks on the roster for the winter, he comes with two option years, giving the Dodgers some coveted flexibility.

Quick Hits: Rangers, Andujar, Nishikawa, Giants, Bleier

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We’ll check out a few notes as we wrap up a quiet weekend around baseball.

  • The Rangers are “definitely intrigued” by the idea of acquiring Miguel Andújar from the Yankees to fill their third base vacancy, hears T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. The Yankees have gotten numerous hits on Andújar this offseason, with interested teams perhaps looking to buy low after a labrum tear ended the 24-year-old’s season in April. With Gio Urshela having supplanted Andújar at the hot corner in the Bronx, the 2018 AL Rookie of the Year runner-up now looks like an interesting trade candidate. Free agency remains an option for Texas, too; Sullivan hears the Rangers are still interested in Josh Donaldson, whom the MLBTR staff guessed would end up in Arlington on a three year, $75MM deal.
  • Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters outfielder Haruki Nishikawa hopes the team will make him available to MLB clubs via the posting system next offseason, reports Jason Coskrey of the Japan Times. Nishikawa, whom Coskrey describes as a “speedy, left-handed hitter,” has a cumulative .284/.376/.393 line in parts of eight NPB seasons. 2019 marked a bit of a step back from the past few years for the 27-year-old, as he slashed .288/.393/.385 with 19 stolen bases. Every year between 2016-18, though, Nishikawa stole at least 39 bags with an OPS north of .790. Nishikawa’s entering his final year under contract with the Fighters, but he won’t qualify for international free agency. Thus, he will need the Fighters, whom Coskrey notes has historically been the most amenable NPB team to posting its top players, including Shohei Ohtani, to agree to post him if he’s to gauge MLB interest in 2020.
  • The Giants are negotiating a deal with Indians’ infield coach/defensive coordinator Kai Correa, reports Andrew Baggarly of the Athletic (via Twitter). San Francisco manager Gabe Kapler is a “huge fan” of Correa’s, Baggarly adds. Correa has spent the past two years working with infielders in the Cleveland organization. He’d previously spent seven seasons coaching at the college level, including four at the University of Northern Colorado.
  • The Orioles are nearing a deal with reliever Richard Bleier to avoid arbitration, reports Roch Kubatko of MASN (via Twitter). Bleier is projected for a modest $1.1MM award in his first foray through the process. The left-handed sinkerballer has consistently posted an elite ground ball rate and been particularly stingy with walks, helping to overcome one of the game’s worst strikeout rates. Unfortunately, Bleier’s 5.37 ERA last season was over three runs per nine higher than the 1.97 career mark he carried entering the year.

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