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Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

By Anthony Franco | October 21, 2025 at 10:02pm CDT

The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

Yesterday, MLBTR looked at a relatively light class of expected recipients on the position player side. There’s more intrigue with the pitching, which could feature a handful of borderline cases depending on option decisions and health questions.

No-Doubters

  • Dylan Cease (Padres)
  • Edwin Díaz (Mets)
  • Ranger Suárez (Phillies)
  • Framber Valdez (Astros)

This group is straightforward. Valdez and Suárez should easily land nine-figure contracts. Cease will probably begin the offseason with a nine-figure ask of his own based on his durability, plus stuff, and excellent strikeout potential. His 4.55 ERA and general inefficiency in the second half might prevent him from cashing in to that level, but he’d at least be able to command a two- or three-year deal with opt-outs even if his market doesn’t materialize as hoped. There’s no reason for him to accept a one-year deal.

Díaz is expected to opt out of the remaining two years and $38MM on his contract. He wouldn’t do that only to accept a one-year offer at $22MM. He’ll decline the qualifying offer and could look for a four-year deal that pays around $20MM annually.

Likely Recipients

  • Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks)
  • Michael King (Padres)
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers)

All of these pitchers seem like comfortable recipients as well, though it’s not 100% certain they’d each decline as the top tier would. Gallen had an up-and-down season that concluded with a 4.83 earned run average over 192 innings. His 21.5% strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, and he struggled with the home run ball for the first time in four seasons. It’s not an encouraging walk year, but he’s only 30 years old and is a few months removed from having a case for a $150MM contract. While he’s not going to get there now, he should be able to land a two-year deal with an opt-out if no team is willing to pay nine figures.

King and Woodruff would’ve been locks to reject the QO had they finished the season at full stride. King missed a couple months with a pesky nerve injury in his throwing shoulder, then lost a few weeks to a knee issue. He returned in the middle of September but didn’t make it beyond five innings in any of his final four starts. The Padres carried him on the playoff roster but had pushed him far enough down the depth chart that they turned to a diminished Yu Darvish to start an elimination game while keeping King in the bullpen. It’s still likely that he’ll decline the qualifying offer and command a multi-year deal, but it’s an uphill battle to the nine-figure money that once seemed to be in the cards.

Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain. He’d missed all of 2024 and the first half of this past season rehabbing from a shoulder surgery. In between, he was one of the best pitchers on the planet. He turned in a 3.20 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate across 12 starts. Teams are always on the hunt for playoff-caliber starters, and Woodruff certainly has that kind of ceiling. The durability questions and his age (33 in February) are likely to keep him at two or three years, but he should command a multi-year contract that pays at or above the qualifying offer price.

Borderline Calls

  • Jack Flaherty (Tigers)

Flaherty has a $20MM player option. He’ll only become a free agent if he believes he’s going to beat that on the open market. Would he decline the option just to accept a qualifying offer for an extra $2MM if the Tigers offered it? That seems unlikely but isn’t impossible. He’d have the approximate two-week window after receiving the QO to gauge the market, and if he’s not finding the kind of early interest he’d hope, it could make sense to accept the offer.

The Tigers would need to decide whether it’s worthwhile to take that chance. Flaherty is coming off a middling 4.64 ERA but took the ball 31 times and struck out 27.6% of opponents. There are some similarities to where Nick Pivetta was at this time last year: a reliable source of innings with a plus strikeout/walk profile but concerns about his home run tendency. It was a little surprising that the Red Sox made Pivetta a qualifying offer and even more so that he turned it down. That gamble ended up netting the Sox the #75 pick in the draft. The Tigers, as revenue sharing recipients, would get a pick after the first round if Flaherty declines a QO and still pulls a $50MM+ guarantee from another team (as Pivetta did).

  • Lucas Giolito (Red Sox)

Giolito lost the 2024 season to internal brace surgery. He began this year on the injured list after suffering a Spring Training hamstring strain. He posted an ERA near 5.00 in May before settling in as a productive mid-rotation arm over the next few months. Giolito turned in a 3.03 earned run average across 20 starts and 113 innings from June onward.

A sub-20% strikeout rate raised some doubts about the sustainability of that kind of run prevention. Still, he looked like a reliable third starter who would do well on the open market once he crossed the 140-inning threshold to convert a $14MM team option into a $19MM mutual provision. Luis Severino had a similar profile and commanded three years and $67MM with an opt-out after declining a qualifying offer last winter. While that contract was an overpay to get a free agent starter to pitch at Sutter Health Park, a three-year deal in the mid-$50MM range is still preferable to accepting a QO.

Then came another injury. Giolito suffered flexor irritation and a bone issue in his throwing elbow at the end of the regular season. He did not make the Wild Card roster and would not have been available even if the Red Sox had made a deep postseason run. Giolito told Chris Cotillo of MassLive that there’s no ligament damage and the issue should heal with rest. Whether to make the QO will come down to Boston’s risk tolerance on the elbow.

The Sox’s luxury tax status should also be a consideration. Unofficial public estimates have them narrowly above the $241MM base threshold. If that’s the case, they’d only get a compensatory pick after the fourth round if Giolito rejects a QO and signs elsewhere. It’d fall in the #75 overall range — like the Pivetta pick — if they had stayed below the tax threshold. That won’t be known publicly until MLB releases its final payroll tallies in December, but the team surely has an idea of where they stand.

  • Shota Imanaga (Cubs)

Imanaga has a complex option setup that might keep him from getting to free agency. The Cubs first need to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57MM option covering the 2026-28 seasons. If they decline, Imanaga has the right to opt out of the remaining two years and $30MM on his deal. If both sides decline their end of the option structure, he’ll be a free agent. The Cubs would then need to decide whether to make the qualifying offer or be content to let Imanaga walk.

The longstanding assumption has been that the team would exercise the three-year option. Imanaga was fantastic in 2024 and carried a 3.08 ERA over 20 starts through the end of August this season. Then he got torched in September (6.51 ERA) and gave up six runs over 6 2/3 innings during two postseason starts. He gave up at least one home run in each of his last nine regular season starts, as well as in both playoff outings. Imanaga surrendered an MLB-worst 20 longballs in the second half.

That’s likely to continue to be a problem. Imanaga’s fastball sits around 90 MPH and he’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher. After striking out more than a quarter of batters faced during his rookie season, that dropped to a slightly below-average 20.6% mark this year. There are a lot of red flags, but he also owns a 3.28 ERA over 318 MLB innings in the last two seasons. How much has the final six weeks soured the Cubs on his future projection?

Unlikely/Long Shots

  • Brad Keller (Cubs)
  • Tyler Mahle (Rangers)
  • Robert Suarez (Padres)
  • Luke Weaver (Yankees)
  • Devin Williams (Yankees)

This group gets a cursory mention largely because there’s often one or two long shot recipients each year. Pivetta and especially Nick Martinez fell into this bucket last winter. Still, it’d register as a major surprise if anyone from this group receives the QO.

Suarez probably has the best chance. He’s one of the game’s best closers and should command a strong two-year deal for his age 35-36 seasons. The Padres have been navigating short-term payroll questions for the past few years, though, and they have Mason Miller as an obvious alternative to handle the ninth inning. Even if they want to give Miller a chance to start, Jeremiah Estrada or Adrian Morejon could close. With bigger needs in the rotation and at first base, they should let Suarez walk.

Mahle had a sterling 2.18 ERA across 16 starts but didn’t miss many bats. He then suffered a rotator cuff strain that cost him three months between mid-June and September. He has battled various shoulder injuries over the past two seasons and underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023. The Rangers are cutting payroll and need to overhaul their lineup. Committing $22MM to Mahle wouldn’t make much sense.

Williams, Keller and Weaver are three of the top relievers in the class. Teams generally reserve the QO for established high-end closers (e.g. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias). Williams would’ve been in that group if he’d had a typical platform year, but he finishes his first and probably only season in the Bronx with an ERA near-5.00.

Ineligible

  • Chris Bassitt
  • Shane Bieber
  • Raisel Iglesias
  • Merrill Kelly
  • Zack Littell
  • Nick Martinez
  • Justin Verlander

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Bassitt, Iglesias, Martinez and Verlander. Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bieber, Kelly and Littell (who would’ve been unlikely anyway) were all traded at the deadline.

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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Designated Hitter

By Anthony Franco | October 21, 2025 at 7:30pm CDT

MLBTR continues its position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class. Before we move on to the pitching, we’ll wrap up the offensive group by looking at the designated hitters. Every position player technically could play DH, of course, but the vast majority of the class has been covered in one of our prior positional previews. We’ll limit this look to players who are either primary designated hitters or took at least 200 plate appearances at the position this year. Player ages, listed in parenthesis, are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield

Top of the Class

Kyle Schwarber (33)

With the exception of Shohei Ohtani, Schwarber is the top free agent designated hitter in years. He’s going to become the first pure DH to sign a nine-figure contract after blasting an NL-best 56 home runs and leading MLB with 132 runs driven in. Schwarber played in all 162 games and batted .240/.365/.563 over 724 trips to the plate.

Schwarber hit 38+ homers in all four seasons of the free agent contract he’d signed with Philadelphia. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he’s among the five best power hitters in the sport. He’s also adored in the Philly clubhouse, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has made no secret about their desire to keep him. Schwarber is going to decline a qualifying offer and should be in position for a four-year contract that pays more than $25MM annually. There’s a non-zero chance that a team stretches to five years to push the overall guarantee above $130MM.

Regular DH Options

Josh Bell (33)

The ever streaky Bell alternated bad and excellent months throughout the season. He had a .730 OPS or below in each of April, June and August while posting an .860 or better in May, July and September. The end result was a .239/.326/.421 batting line with 22 home runs across 533 plate appearances. For all his inconsistency within seasons, Bell has reliably ended up as a slightly above-average hitter in each of the past three years. He should command another one-year deal.

Starling Marte (37)

After consecutive seasons of declining production, Marte had a bit of a rebound in a part-time role for the Mets. He hit .270/.335/.410 over 329 plate appearances. Marte only hit seven homers and isn’t the kind of power bat that teams will want as an everyday DH, but he can take 250-300 at-bats while playing a part-time corner outfield role.

Andrew McCutchen (39)

Cutch has signed a series of one-year, $5MM deals with the Pirates over the past few seasons. This year’s .239/.333/.367 line with 13 homers is his worst production of his three-year second stint in Pittsburgh. McCutchen still has a strong awareness of the strike zone, but he’s no longer a threat for 25-30 homers at this stage of his career. It seems likely he’ll work out another cheap one-year deal with the Bucs.

Marcell Ozuna (35)

Ozuna is the cheap alternative to Schwarber as a true everyday designated hitter. He’s only one season removed from being one of the sport’s best offensive players. Ozuna combined for 79 home runs with a .289/.364/.552 slash between 2023-24. He’s coming off an underwhelming walk year at age 34, as he regressed to a .232/.355/.400 batting line with 21 homers over 592 trips to the plate. It’s still above-average offensive output but not great production for a player who hasn’t logged a single inning on defense in two years.

The in-season trend lines were not encouraging. Ozuna hit .280/.426/.457 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts through the end of May. For a while, he looked as if he’d be one of the best rental hitters available at the trade deadline. He then went through a three-month slog in which he hit .185/.300/.362 over 278 plate appearances. That killed any chance of the Braves getting more than marginal salary relief, so they kept him for the stretch run. Ozuna rebounded somewhat to hit .261 in September, but he struck out at a 32% clip and only connected on one home run in the season’s final month. He’ll be limited to a one-year deal that might be half of the $16MM salary he collected this past season.

Jorge Polanco (32)

Polanco’s contract technically contains a $6MM player option, but he’s going to decline that and hit free agency. The Mariners surprisingly re-signed him on the heels of a disappointing 2024 season. Seattle attributed the down year to a knee injury through which he’d played that required postseason meniscus surgery. They’ve been proven right with a resurgent year from the switch-hitting infielder. Polanco drilled 26 homers and 30 doubles with a .265/.326/.495 line.

While Polanco can still hit, he’ll face questions about his defensive workload over 162 games. Seattle initially planned to play him at third base, believing that not needing to navigate the second base bag would be easier on his knee. That lasted five games before renewed soreness and an oblique injury led the M’s to use him as a full-time designated hitter for a while. He began mixing in second base work in June and played there regularly for the final three weeks of the season. He’s a long shot candidate for a qualifying offer but will likely hit free agency without draft compensation. He should get at least a two-year deal and has a chance for three.

Bench Bats

Wilmer Flores (34)

Flores got out to a strong start to the season, popping seven home runs with a penchant for clutch hits in April. He had a pedestrian .245/.315/.365 batting line from the beginning of May onwards. Flores has made a career as a versatile defender who hits left-handed pitching, but he’s essentially limited to DH and first base at this point. He only has a .228/.278/.371 slash against southpaws over the past two seasons and may need to take a minor league deal.

Mitch Garver (35)

Garver logged nearly 400 innings behind the plate as Cal Raleigh’s backup. The Mariners signed him with the expectation that he’d be their primary designated hitter, but he hit .187/.290/.341 in 201 games over two seasons in the Pacific Northwest.

Justin Turner (41)

Turner got $6MM from the Cubs last offseason to work as a veteran righty bat off the bench. He hit .219/.288/.314 over 80 games in his age-40 season and is probably looking at a minor league deal if he continues playing.

Jesse Winker (32)

Winker landed a $7.5MM guarantee to re-sign with the Mets last offseason. He’ll probably be limited to minor league offers this winter after oblique and back injuries limited him to 26 games.

Player Options

Joc Pederson (34)

Pederson will exercise a $16.5MM player option with Texas after hitting .181/.285/.328 over 306 plate appearances. The Rangers will need a huge rebound from a player who’d hit .275/.393/.515 with the Diamondbacks in 2024.

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Previewing Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

By Anthony Franco | October 20, 2025 at 6:45pm CDT

The World Series looms and the offseason will begin around two weeks from now. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $22.025MM. Players who receive the QO have around two weeks to get an early feel for the market before deciding whether to accept. If they do, they cannot be traded without their consent until at least June 15 of the following season — as is the case for any MLB free agent who signs a major league deal.

If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We’ll start with a look at the position players, with a preview of the pitchers to come later in the week. While there may be some close calls on the pitching side, there shouldn’t be a ton of intrigue with the hitting decisions. Many of this year’s top free agent hitters are ineligible for a qualifying offer, meaning there’ll probably only be four who receive it — each of whom would have a relatively easy decision to decline.

No-Doubters

  • Bo Bichette (Blue Jays)
  • Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)
  • Kyle Tucker (Cubs)

There’s not much to say about this trio. They’ll all receive and reject a QO. Tucker could seek a contract north of $400MM, while Bichette should aim for $200MM+ despite a late-season knee sprain. Schwarber’s age and lack of defensive value will keep him below $200MM, but he’s going to easily beat $22MM per season on what should at least be a four-year contract.

Likely Recipient

  • Trent Grisham (Yankees)

Grisham is a safe bet to receive the qualifying offer as well, though that’s perhaps more of a 90-95% likelihood than the absolute locks of the top tier. It should be an easy call for him to decline on the heels of a 34-homer breakout that is supported by impressive batted ball metrics. Even with a dip in his typically strong defensive grades, Grisham has a shot at a four- of five-year deal going into his age-29 season. He’s the top center fielder in the class.

The only argument against the Yankees issuing the QO is that they’d receive the lowest compensation as a luxury tax payor: a pick after the fourth round. If they feel there’s even a 10% chance of Grisham accepting, maybe they’d rather not risk committing $22MM and an accompanying $24MM in luxury taxes within the first two weeks of the offseason. Still, one imagines they’d happily take Grisham back on the off chance that he were willing to accept a one-year guarantee.

Long Shots

  • Jorge Polanco (Mariners)
  • Gleyber Torres (Tigers)

Polanco has had a huge second season in Seattle. He hit 26 homers with a .265/.326/.495 slash across 524 regular season plate appearances. His .703 OPS in the postseason isn’t great overall, but he has drilled three more home runs (including two off Tarik Skubal in a Game 2 victory in the Division Series). It’s arguably the best offensive performance of his career after accounting for the difficulty of hitting at T-Mobile Park. All that said, it’s difficult to see the Mariners offering $22MM to a 32-year-old whose defensive home is in question because of knee injuries. There’s a strong chance Polanco would accept, as his age and durability issues should cap him at a three-year deal even if he’s not attached to draft compensation.

Torres was on track to receive a qualifying offer after hitting .281/.387/.425 in an All-Star first half. He subsequently hit .223/.320/.339 and underwent postseason sports hernia surgery. While the injury offers an explanation for the late-season drop in production, it’s likelier that Torres is who he is: an above-average but not great hitter who plays a mediocre second base. He finished his lone season in Detroit with a .256/.358/.387 line with 16 homers, similar numbers to those he posted (.257/.330/.378) during his walk year with the Yankees. That got him a $15MM free agent deal. It’s tough to see Detroit offering him an extra $7MM and potentially locking that money up by mid-November.

That’s essentially it for any hitters with an outside chance to receive a QO. The only other player who even received consideration in this tier is Luis Arraez. While he still has the game’s best contact skills and is a good bet to hit .300, there’s just not enough overall impact to justify a $22MM salary. Of the 32 first basemen who tallied 400+ plate appearances, Arraez ranked 19th in on-base percentage (.327) and 26th in slugging (.392).

Ineligible

  • Pete Alonso
  • Harrison Bader
  • Cody Bellinger
  • Alex Bregman
  • Ha-Seong Kim
  • Josh Naylor
  • Ryan O’Hearn
  • J.T. Realmuto
  • Trevor Story
  • Eugenio Suárez

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer in their careers cannot be tagged with a second one. That rules out Alonso, Bellinger, Bregman, Realmuto and Story (who seems unlikely to opt out anyway). Teams can only make the offer to players who spent the entire preceding season on their roster. Bader, Naylor, O’Hearn and Suárez were all traded at the deadline. The Braves claimed Kim off waivers from Tampa Bay in September.

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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

By Anthony Franco | October 20, 2025 at 4:51pm CDT

The Rangers failed to score enough runs for the second straight year. After making a few unsuccessful changes around the core last winter, they should be up for a more radical overhaul of the lineup.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Corey Seager, SS: $186MM through 2031
  • Jacob deGrom, RHP: $75MM through 2027 (deal includes club/vesting option for '28)
  • Marcus Semien, 2B: $72MM through 2028
  • Nathan Eovaldi, RHP: $57MM through 2027 (including $12MM in unpaid signing bonus)
  • Joc Pederson, DH: $18.5MM player option
  • Kyle Higashioka, C: $7.75MM through 2026 (including buyout of '27 mutual option)

Option Decisions

  • DH Joc Pederson haș $18.5MM player option (deal includes matching mutual option for '27)

2026 guarantees (assuming Pederson opts in): $146.25MM
Total future commitments: $416.25MM through 2031

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projected salaries courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Jonah Heim (5.097): $6MM
  • Adolis García (5.095): $12.1MM
  • Josh Sborz (5.055): $1.1MM
  • Jacob Webb (5.046): $2MM
  • Sam Haggerty (5.007): $1.4MM
  • Josh Smith (3.129): $3MM
  • Jake Burger (3.127): $3.5MM
  • Ezequiel Duran (3.050): $1.4MM
  • Josh Jung (3.023): $2.9MM

Non-tender candidates: Heim, García, Sborz, Haggerty, Burger, Duran

Free Agents

  • Merrill Kelly, Patrick Corbin, Tyler Mahle, Hoby Milner, Shawn Armstrong, Phil Maton, Chris Martin, Danny Coulombe, Rowdy Tellez, Jon Gray, Dylan Moore, Donovan Solano

The Rangers followed up their championship season with a 78-84 showing in which they finished 18th in scoring. They signed Joc Pederson and swapped out Nathaniel Lowe for Jake Burger, hoping to add some power and do more damage against fastballs. Neither Pederson nor Burger stepped up, and the Rangers dropped to 22nd in scoring this year. An improved pitching staff pushed them to .500, but they finished with a whimper despite buying at the trade deadline.

Bigger changes are in order. That already began in the manager's office. The Rangers parted ways with Bruce Bochy after three seasons. It took less than a week to hammer out a four-year contract with Skip Schumaker, a former NL Manager of the Year who returns to the dugout after a season working as a special assistant in the Texas front office. Schumaker should be working with a much different lineup than the one that closed Bochy's tenure.

The broad focus is to improve the offensive approach. Only the Rockies, Guardians, Angels and White Sox had a lower on-base percentage. Texas was in the bottom third of MLB in walk rate. At the end-of-season press conference, general manager Ross Fenstermaker said the team could prioritize "stable skills, on-base percentage, the ability to make contact, execute situationally" in their external additions (link via Shawn McFarland of The Dallas Morning News).

Before that can happen, they'll need to move on from a few players. Rowdy Tellez is their only impending free agent hitter of any note, so the significant work will happen via trades and/or non-tenders. They're unlikely to find a taker for Pederson, who'll exercise a $16.5MM player option after hitting .181/.285/.328 during his first season in Texas. It's hard to imagine they'd move Corey Seager, who remains the team's best hitter and whose contract (another six years at $31MM annually) would only work for a couple large-market teams. Wyatt Langford, Josh Smith and Evan Carter should be back as affordable building blocks.

The Rangers might try to get out from under a portion of the Marcus Semien contract. He's owed $72MM over the final three seasons of his seven-year free agent deal. Semien was phenomenal during the World Series season but has tailed off over the past two years. He's coming off a career-worst .230/.305/.364 slash line with 15 homers and ended the year on the injured list with a Lisfranc issue in his left foot.

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Previewing The 2025-26 Free Agent Class: Center Field

By Anthony Franco | October 18, 2025 at 8:22am CDT

A number of teams (and their fanbases) have already turned their attention towards the offseason. Identifying free agent targets is a big part of that prep work, so it’s worth taking a look at the players who’ll be available at each position.

We’re moving to center field, a position that has been weak in free agency for the past few years. That’s again the case this winter, as the handful of potential regulars face questions about their offensive consistency and/or how long they can play up the middle. Ages listed are for the 2026 season.

Previous entries in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop

Everyday Players

Trent Grisham (29)

Grisham has gone from fourth outfielder to the top center fielder in the class within six months. He picked a great time for the best season of his career. Grisham connected on 34 home runs, doubling his previous season high. He pushed his already strong walk rate to a career-high 14.1% clip while cutting his strikeouts (23.6%) to the lowest mark in four years. The end result was a .235/.348/.464 slash line across 581 plate appearances. He spent most of the season hitting atop the Yankee lineup in front of Aaron Judge.

It’s not entirely fair to say that came out of nowhere. Grisham is a former top prospect who had a couple strong seasons with the Padres early in his career. He had hit just .191/.298/.353 in nearly 1300 trips to the plate from 2022-24, however, so almost no one would have seen a season like this coming.

The breakout was neither a product of batted ball luck nor Yankee Stadium. Grisham posted well above-average marks in hard hit rate, barrels and average exit velocity. Statcast’s expected batting average and slugging percentage (based on his plate discipline, exit velocities and launch angles) were even better than his actual production. That doesn’t necessarily mean the numbers are sustainable. Even if this year’s results were “deserved,” there’s no guarantee he’ll continue swinging the bat as well as he did.

While this was a career year offensively, Grisham’s defensive grades went the other way. Both Statcast and Defensive Runs Saved had graded him as an average or better defender in every previous season. That was not the case this year, with DRS (-11) particularly down on his work. Grisham’s speed has trended down over the past few seasons and he’s now one of the slower center fielders in MLB.

It leaves teams with a difficult evaluation. Will Grisham remain an impact bat at the top of a lineup? How much longer will he stick in center field? He’s one of the most high-variance players in the entire free agent class. The Yankees should make him a qualifying offer, which he’d almost certainly decline. That’d entitle them to a compensatory pick after the fourth round while costing a signing team draft (and potentially international bonus pool) compensation. A four- or five-year deal could be on the table.

Cody Bellinger (30)

Bellinger is opting out of the final year on his contract with the Yankees. New York won’t be able to make him a qualifying offer because he already received one from the Cubs after the 2023 season. Bellinger won’t be attached to draft compensation and should pull a larger contract than Grisham, potentially in the nine figures.

It’s unclear if any team would make that kind of offer for Bellinger to play center field every day. He hasn’t reached 500 innings at the position in either of the past two years. The Cubs split him evenly between center and right in 2024. The Yankees gave him 38 starts and a little over 300 innings in center while playing him more often in the corners. Bellinger still runs well and grades as a strong corner defender, though the hope would probably be for league average glovework if a team plays him in center.

Bellinger hit 29 homers while slashing .272/.334/.480 across 656 plate appearances. His left-handed swing seemed tailor made for Yankee Stadium, as he hit .302/.365/.544 with 18 longballs at home. His pedestrian road numbers (.241/.301/.414) could give some teams pause, and Belllinger’s middling exit velocities have been a talking point for the past few years. He very rarely strikes out, though, and he’s coming off his second well above-average offensive season in the past three years.

Harrison Bader (32)

Bader will decline his end of a $10MM mutual option in favor of a $1.5MM buyout. He hits the market for a third consecutive offseason. His past two trips resulted in one-year deals. Bader should find a multi-year pact this time around, and there’s an outside chance he commands a three-year deal.

A plus runner with excellent range and a strong arm, Bader has been a fantastic defender throughout his career. Even at 32, he’s the best defensive center fielder on the open market (assuming the White Sox pick up their option on Luis Robert). Bader split his 2025 season almost equally between left and center, but that was only because he spent the first half playing in the same Minnesota outfield as Byron Buxton. He was a full-time center fielder after being traded to the Phillies at the deadline.

The question is how much of this year’s personal-best offensive output is sustainable. Bader slashed .277/.347/.449 with a career-high 17 home runs in 501 plate appearances. He set new high water marks in batting average and on-base percentage. His slugging output was the second-best of his career behind his 2021 season with St. Louis.

Bader’s underlying offensive metrics are not as encouraging. He struck out at a 27.1% clip, his highest rate in five seasons. He made more hard contact than he had in prior years, but Statcast estimators feel he dramatically outperformed his expected batting average and slugging percentage. He’s unlikely to hit .359 on balls in play again. Teams will expect him to take a step back offensively. He should land somewhere in between this year’s production and the .239/.284/.360 slash he posted over the prior three seasons.

Low-End Regulars/Fourth Outfielders

Cedric Mullins (31)

A few months ago, Mullins had an outside chance at a nine-figure deal. He started the year on fire, hitting .278/.412/.515 with six home runs through the end of April. He was on pace for his best season since he was a top ten MVP finisher four years ago.

Things fell apart. Mullins had a sub-.650 OPS in four of the final five months. He hit .198/.263/.355 in 379 plate appearances from May 1 onward. A deadline trade to the Mets didn’t serve as the turning point they’d hoped. Mullins hit .182/.284/.281 over 42 games in Queens. He was essentially relegated to fourth outfield work as the team squandered a playoff berth.

Mullins still logged over 1000 innings in center field. Defensive metrics have been mixed on him throughout his career. Statcast grades him as a generally rangy defender but rates his arm as one of the worst in the league. He’ll probably find a team willing to play him every day, but he’s likely looking at a one-year deal.

Lane Thomas (30)

While Thomas is probably better suited for right field, the Guardians mostly used him in center. Cleveland paid a decent prospect price to acquire Thomas from Washington at the 2024 deadline. It didn’t work out (postseason homer off Tarik Skubal aside), as he hit .189/.258/.340 over 329 plate appearances with the Guardians. That includes a .160/.246/.272 slash over 39 games this season. Thomas dealt with a right wrist injury early in the season and tried to play through plantar fasciitis in his right foot. He had three separate injured list stints overall.

Thomas is only two seasons removed from hitting 28 homers and stealing 20 bases for the Nats. He was an above-average regular who feasted on left-handed pitching at his best. He’ll need to take a one-year deal after how poorly things went in Cleveland.

Team Options

Luis Robert Jr. (28)

Robert isn’t likely to get to the market. The White Sox hold a $20MM club option that comes with a $2MM buyout. The $18MM difference is substantial for a player who has been a below-average hitter in consecutive seasons. The White Sox maintained a high asking price on Robert in trade talks, though, and GM Chris Getz has implied that they’ll exercise the option. There’s another $20MM option for 2027, so there’s still some long-term upside if Robert recaptures the form he showed earlier in his career.

Minor League Deal Candidates

  • Garrett Hampson (31)
  • Travis Jankowski (35)
  • Jorge Mateo (31)
  • Jose Siri (31)
  • Leody Taveras (27)
  • Chris Taylor (35)
  • Tyler Wade (31)
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Rockies To Narrow Front Office Search To Finalists Next Week

By Anthony Franco | October 17, 2025 at 10:35pm CDT

With the Nationals hiring Paul Toboni as president of baseball operations, the Rockies are the only team searching for a new front office head. That could soon be coming to an end, as Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports that the Rox will narrow to a group of finalists next week.

Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post hears similarly and writes that the Rox still have yet to determine whether the new hire will be given the title of general manager or president of baseball operations. That could be based on whomever they hire. If they tab a GM from another club, they’d need to give that person the president of baseball ops title to represent a promotion.

There are three known interviewees for the Rox’s top job: Royals assistant GM Scott Sharp, Guardians AGM Matt Forman, and Blue Jays vice president of baseball strategy James Click. It’s not clear how many other candidates are under consideration. Click is the only one of those three who has experience running a baseball operations department. He led the Astros between 2020-22, winning a World Series in the last of those seasons. He clashed with owner Jim Crane, though, and the Astros moved on after Click rejected a one-year extension offer on the heels of the championship.

While the front office leader is the most significant hire, Saunders reports that the team is also set to hire a chief revenue/strategy officer. That person will work mostly on the business side, though the stated goal is for increased revenues to be reinvested back into the team’s notoriously thin baseball operations infrastructure.

According to Saunders, the front office search is being headed by executive vice president Walker Monfort — the son of owner Dick Monfort. It’s not entirely clear how the baseball operations staff is structured in the interim. Former GM Bill Schmidt and assistant GM Zack Rosenthal are both out, and the team did not name an interim general manager. It stands to reason they’ll want their new top executive in place by the end of the month. The World Series could end as soon as October 28 in the event of a sweep. The trade market reopens the day after the World Series and the first few days of the offseason see plenty of waiver activity.

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Giants Interview Vance Wilson In Manager Search

By Anthony Franco | October 17, 2025 at 8:21pm CDT

The Giants interviewed Royals third base coach Vance Wilson as part of their managerial search earlier this month, reports Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Wilson is also a candidate to interview for the Twins’ position, Rogers adds.

The 52-year-old has worked as K.C.’s third base coach for the past six seasons. He’d spent the preceding two years as bullpen coach, giving him eight seasons on an MLB staff. Wilson has worked under each of Ned Yost, Mike Matheny and Matt Quatraro.

The Royals interviewed him during the hiring cycles that resulted in the Matheny and Quatraro hirings. While Wilson didn’t get the top job on either case, Kansas City has valued him enough to keep him on staff through multiple managers.

Wilson has never managed in the major leagues, but he has seven seasons of managerial experience in the K.C. farm system. He played parts of eight MLB seasons as a backup catcher with the Mets and Tigers. He’s one of a few former catchers on the radar for the Giants. Nick Hundley and Kurt Suzuki have also interviewed, with Hundley reportedly viewed as a favorite. Minnesota is known to have spoken with Nick Punto, Derek Shelton, James Rowson and Ramón Vázquez as part of their search to replace Rocco Baldelli.

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Anthony Franco | October 17, 2025 at 3:29pm CDT

Anthony Franco

  • Good evening everyone, hope you've enjoyed your week!
  • Looking forward to another of these, let's get it started

Twins

  • They can say its not a rebuild all they want but what we're seeing seems clear. Why not just rip the band aid off, trade Pablo and Joe Ryan for a ton, and start over?

Bradke Hrbek

  • Imagine a world where the Twins aren't inclined to continue their trade deadline fire sale this offseason... what kind of trade offer would convince them to give up Joe Ryan anyway?

Anthony Franco

  • Yeah I expect both Ryan and Pablo to go by the deadline at the latest. Two years on each and even if they're hoping for an accelerated rebuild, the bullpen and bottom part of the lineup are in such bad shape that it's not fixable in one offseason
  • As far as Ryan goes, I assume it looks pretty similar to the Crochet deal. I was a little lower on that one for the White Sox because I'm not a huge Braden Montgomery fan. But I assume Chicago viewed that as two of the 50-60 best prospects in MLB with Teel/Montgomery, a solid third piece in Meidroth, and then a lottery ticket reliever in Gonzalez
  • Ryan's not as good as Crochet is now but I think it's debatable whether he's as valuable as Crochet was then. Higher ceiling with the lefty working in the upper 90s with huge strikeout rates, but Crochet had yet to show he could hold that level over a full season with an ace workload

Astros fan

  • If Alonso leaves, do you think the Mets would have any interest in Christian Walker? How much of his salary do you think they would be willing to pay?

Anthony Franco

  • I'd rather just see what Vientos can do there, but I'm probably lower on Walker than the rest of the MLBTR staff. I'd need the Astros to pay him into the $8-10M range annually to consider it, and only after I've exhausted other options on the FA market
  • The defensive grades collapsed. He was essentially unplayable in the first half, very good in July and August, then pretty bad again in September. Chase up a little bit, contact way down. The trend lines are rough

Guarded Indian

  • Not so much a question as a statement, but I really hope you guys are wrong about Nick C. coming to Cleveland.  I'd rather run it with Kwan, Delauter, Valera in the OF, Manzardo at DH with Kayfus at first.  Unfortunately, this does seem exactly like the kind of move my Guards would do.

Anthony Franco

  • I agree, don't love the fit there and would rather have Kayfus/Manzardo split 1B/DH. Seems like Nick feels differently (though he's also just highlighting a few possibilities for a low-stakes poll) and it's true that they need better out of right field, but I assume DeLauter's going to end up there. I wouldn't want Castellanos playing the outfield every day

Omar Minaya

  • Seems to be increasing smoke around a potential Skubal trade. How would you rank the potential suitors?

Alex

  • For so many reasons, I don't think it particularly likely from either side, but out of curiosity, if the Tigers were to make Skubal available, what sort of cost would teams be looking at? For my frame of reference, let's say it's the Cubs inquiring. It seems like something that would be so astronomical that no team would consider it, but to reference the Yankees/Soto trade a few years ago (which feels like a similar situation) it's not like that set the Yankees back too much. Is Skubal in another tier than Soto, or would we be looking at something similar?

Anthony Franco

  • I disagree that there's increased smoke about Skubal getting traded. They lowballed him on an old extension offer. It doesn't look great, but it's not like it impacted his 2025 performance
  • Doubt they're getting an extension done but I never expected them to. I'd be floored if they didn't hold him into next season and be prepared to QO him after what they hope is a long playoff run
  • If they did trade him, I think it's a better return than what San Diego got for Soto. He's making half the arbitration salary that Soto was and top-end pitchers take on an increased importance in the playoffs. A team is only trading for Skubal if they think they're inner circle contenders
  • But the Tigers are coming off consecutive playoff berths. They have an elite farm system already. They just squandered the division in part because they were too conservative at the deadline, and they're not under any short-term financial constraints with Skubal/Baez as their only notable contracts. If they trade Skubal now, at what point are they actually trying to win?

Tony Torcato

  • Should the Giants pull the plug on Marco Luciano, and possibly even Luis Matos? Heliot Ramos might also be on the bubble for his subpar defense in LF and regression at the plate, would you agree/disagree? Giants need to remake their outfield, and concentrate on pitching and defense to get back to a championship level, imo.

Anthony Franco

  • Pretty close to it. I probably wouldn't keep Luciano on the 40 all offseason, it's just not going to work. I still have a semblance of hope for Matos as a decent role player but he's out of options so he might get squeezed out during Spring Training
  • They're not cutting Ramos though. Even if they wanted to focus on outfield defense, they could trade him

Dan S.

  • Trent Grisham and Harrison Bader are coming off very good platform years, but both looked more like second-division regulars or part-time/platoon guys in recent seasons. Grisham's offensive breakout came with an alarming defensive drop and Bader's wOBA outperformed is xwOBA by a massive .043 points. What kind of contracts are they looking at this winter?
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Latest On Tigers, Tarik Skubal

By Anthony Franco | October 17, 2025 at 8:00am CDT

October 17th: Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press reports that Detroit’s offer after 2024 was for four years and less than $100MM.

October 16th: The Tigers are now down to their final season of control over the American League’s best pitcher. Tarik Skubal is entering his last year of arbitration and trending towards the largest pitching contract in history if he stays healthy.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote this evening that Skubal could seek a deal of at least $400MM. Heyman reports that Detroit’s extension offer last offseason was shy of the $170MM which Garrett Crochet received from the Red Sox in April. Heyman specifies that the Tigers’ offer came before Crochet’s extension.

Much will be made of the more than $200MM gap between those two numbers, but that doesn’t consider the timing of Detroit’s offer. The front office certainly wouldn’t be under any illusions now that a sub-$200MM proposal would be close. Their previous offer came when Skubal was two years from free agency and before the Crochet precedent.

It wasn’t clear last offseason that Crochet would command as strong a deal as he did. That contract was nearly $50MM above the previous top extension for a pitcher with between four and five years of service time (Jacob deGrom’s $120.5MM deal with the Mets from 2019). The Red Sox certainly don’t have any regrets after Crochet’s dominant ’25 season, but that deal pushed the extension market dramatically forward. While it’s not clear precisely what Detroit had offered, it’s safe to presume it was north of the deGrom extension and would have been a record within his service class before the Crochet signing.

Skubal bet on himself and is in position to truly cash in as a result. He’s going to win his second consecutive AL Cy Young Award after posting a 2.21 ERA with 241 strikeouts across 31 starts. He is two and a half seasons removed from the flexor surgery that ended his 2022 campaign. Most importantly, he’s now 12 months away from the open market.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto received the largest guarantee for a pitcher in MLB history when he signed with the Dodgers for $325MM. That was in large part due to his unusual circumstances coming over from Japan. He was an established ace in NPB and widely viewed as one of the two best pitchers (alongside Paul Skenes) who had yet to pitch in MLB at the time. Yamamoto came over before his age-25 season — earlier than any MLB ace could accrue the necessary six years of service time to hit free agency. He commanded a 12-year deal that was three years longer than any other pitching contract.

Among domestic free agent pitchers, Gerrit Cole has the record on his nine-year, $324MM contract with the Yankees. Cole had yet to win a Cy Young but was coming off two straight top five finishes. He hit the market at age 29, while Skubal is on track to become a free agent at 30. Cole’s deal is six years old, so there’ll surely be an adjustment for inflation.

Cole’s $36MM average annual value was a record for a pitcher at the time. It’s now down to sixth — not including the Shohei Ohtani deal — on an annual basis. Late-career aces Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer and Zack Wheeler have each reached or topped $42MM on two- or three-year contracts. deGrom received $37MM annually on his five-year deal with Texas, while Blake Snell is making $36.4MM per season from the Dodgers (albeit with deferrals that drop the net present AAV to the $31-32MM range).

Those are all free agent precedents. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Skubal for a $17.8MM salary in his last arbitration year. Detroit wouldn’t get much of a discount on an extension, but a long-term deal this offseason would come with the risk that he suffers an injury next year.

The Tigers have signed two contracts above $200MM: Prince Fielder’s free agent deal and Miguel Cabrera’s franchise-high $248MM extension. They’re each more than a decade old and came under the ownership tenure of the late Mike Ilitich. Since his son Christopher Ilitch took control of the organization in 2017, they’ve signed one nine-figure deal — the $140MM Javier Baez addition. Detroit has a relatively clean long-term payroll outlook aside from Baez’s $24MM salaries over the next two seasons. Jack Flaherty has a $20MM player option for 2026, while Colt Keith is signed for $4-5MM for the next four years.

[Related Poll: Should The Tigers Consider A Skubal Trade?]

There’s enough payroll space that it’s conceivable the Tigers could make a competitive extension offer to Skubal. If talks don’t gain traction, they’d need to decide whether to hold him for a final season or entertain trade possibilities. Detroit is coming off consecutive playoff berths and spent most of the ’25 season in control of the AL Central. It’s difficult to envision the Tigers being legitimate contenders in 2026 if they were to trade Skubal, even if they built a return around controllable big league talent. There’s a strong argument for simply holding Skubal in the hope that he carries them to a deep postseason run and making a qualifying offer next winter. If they struggle in the first half, he’d be a marquee deadline trade chip.

The alternative this offseason would be to follow the respective Red Sox, Padres and Astros precedents with Mookie Betts, Juan Soto and Kyle Tucker. Those teams all traded their superstar before his final season of arbitration. That went terribly for Boston. San Diego did very well on the Soto return and has won at least 90 games in each of the past two seasons. The jury is still out on Houston’s trade of Tucker. They got a strong three-player return but came up shy of the postseason this year. Those teams were all navigating short-term payroll restrictions from ownership that shouldn’t be an issue for Detroit with how little money they have on the books.

President of baseball operations Scott Harris gave a non-answer when asked about Skubal’s future during the Tigers’ end-of-season presser on Monday. “I can’t comment on our players being traded … so I’m going to respond by not actually commenting on it,” Harris said. “Tarik is a Tiger. I hope he wins the Cy Young for the second consecutive year. He’s an incredible pitcher and we’re lucky to have him.”

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Phillies Expected To Trade Or Release Nick Castellanos

By Anthony Franco | October 16, 2025 at 11:10pm CDT

The Phillies are likely to trade or release Nick Castellanos this offseason, reports Matt Gelb of The Athletic. The veteran outfielder is owed $20MM for the final season of a five-year, $100MM free agent deal.

It has been apparent for the past few months that Castellanos’ time with the organization would probably come to an end this winter. He hasn’t performed up to expectations for most of his time in Philly. He’s coming off a career-worst .250/.294/.400 batting line and lost playing time in the second half.

Castellanos has also had a couple public spats with manager Rob Thomson. The skipper benched Castellanos for a game in June after the player made what Thomson considered “an inappropriate comment” when being lifted for a defensive replacement (ESPN link). Late in the season, Castellanos publicly criticized Thomson for what he called “questionable” communication on players’ roles.

The Phillies have not announced any decisions. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was asked about the situation at this morning’s end-of-season press conference. “I don’t know. I’m not going to get into specific players that are on our roster under contract. The [incidents] that you talked about are accurate, but we’ll see what happens,” he replied (link via Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer).

Obviously, the Phillies would prefer to find a trade partner than to simply release Castellanos. That won’t be easy. Other teams will be aware of the soured relationship. Even if things hadn’t gone south off the field, he’s coming off a season in which both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference felt he was below replacement level. Castellanos ranked among the bottom 20 hitters (minimum 500 plate appearances) in on-base percentage. He tied with Jo Adell and Juan Soto for an MLB-worst 12 outs below average among outfielders. He probably would have been a primary designated hitter if he weren’t teammates with Kyle Schwarber.

Castellanos did connect on 17 homers while driving in 72 runs. He’d topped 20 homers in each of the previous two seasons. He has not gone on the injured list in three seasons and has hit .282/.329/.463 against left-handed pitching over the past four years. He’d still be an offensive upgrade for some teams as a part-time outfielder/DH.

Teams aren’t going to assume a notable portion of a $20MM salary for that kind of role. The Phils will hope to find a club willing to take $3-5MM off their hands for a nominal return. Failing that, it seems they’d simply eat the contract and release him. Castellanos could then sign anywhere for the league minimum with the Phillies on the hook for the rest of the money. The Guardians, Royals, Rangers and Padres are among the teams that need more production out of the outfield and/or designated hitter.

Moving on from Castellanos will be one of multiple changes to the Phils’ outfield. Harrison Bader and Max Kepler are headed to free agency. (Bader will decline his end of a mutual option and sign a multi-year deal.) That leaves Brandon Marsh as the only returning regular. Kepler had a poor season after signing a $10MM free agent deal. Dombrowski acknowledged that he’s unlikely to be re-signed.

The Phils will presumably make an effort to bring Bader back, but they’re also facing the impending free agencies of Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Ranger Suárez. While Dombrowski said the Phillies have interest in re-signing each of those players individually, he called it “probably impractical” to get all four of them done. Schwarber and Realmuto feel like the bigger priorities.

That points to a potential Opening Day roster spot for former first-round pick Justin Crawford. The Phillies were mulling a midseason call-up for the 21-year-old outfielder. Crawford probably would’ve debuted had they not managed to acquire Bader from Minnesota at the deadline. He instead spent the season at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he hit .334/.411/.452 and stole 46 bases in 112 games.

Crawford remains a somewhat divisive prospect. He has excellent bat-to-ball skills, but his power is limited by a swing designed to hit the ball on the ground. While he has the pure speed for center field, his arm and defensive routes lead many evaluators to project him as a left fielder. That could push Marsh back to center field, perhaps in another platoon with righty-swinging Johan Rojas.

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