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Will The Imai Signing Spur An Astros Trade?

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The Astros finalized their three-year, $54MM deal with Tatsuya Imai this afternoon. It came as a surprise that the Japanese righty ended up in Houston — not because the Astros didn’t need a starter, but due to what appeared to be a tight budget.

Imai settled for an $18MM average annual value that landed below most projections. Houston got a short-term deal at a reasonable salary by offering opt-out chances after each of the first two seasons. RosterResource projects their Opening Day payroll around $242MM. They’re at an estimated $238MM in luxury tax commitments. The Astros also need to pay a $9.975MM release fee to Imai’s NPB club, the Seibu Lions. That does not count against their luxury tax ledger, though it’s a not insignificant sum for what could amount to one year of Imai’s services if he opts out.

The Astros opened the 2025 season with a $220MM payroll. Their season-ending luxury tax number landed just shy of $246MM, subjecting them to a modest ($1.5MM) bill for exceeding the $241MM base threshold. Next season’s cutoff is $244MM. They’re already projected within $6MM of that number. A team’s luxury tax payroll is not finalized until the end of the year, meaning in-season acquisitions count on a prorated basis towards that sum. So do any unlocked incentives and contracts for players on minor league deals who are selected onto the MLB roster.

Early offseason reporting indicated that Houston owner Jim Crane was reluctant to go beyond the tax line for what would be a third straight season. Chandler Rome of The Athletic wrote this morning that remains the case even with Imai on the books.

Will that be a firm mandate? Crane was loath to pay the CBT in each of the past two offseasons as well. That changed quickly in 2024, when they responded to a season-ending injury to Kendall Graveman by signing Josh Hader — a deal that rocketed them into tax territory. Houston stayed below the CBT line entering the ’25 season. Then came an opportunity to reacquire Carlos Correa at the deadline, again pushing them above. The owner has changed his mind before.

As it stands, it’s difficult to see the Astros staying below the tax line throughout the 2026 season. They’d be very limited in what they can accomplish at the trade deadline. RosterResource’s calculation is unofficial and pending resolution on a number of arbitration cases, so there are decent-sized error bars in the $238MM estimate, but the broader point remains that they’re not far below the CBT line. Some clubs prefer to have more than $10MM in payroll room for in-season additions.

That could lead the front office to clear a few million in an offseason trade. Let’s look at how their payroll is shaping up.

Players on Guaranteed Contracts (10)

Correa, Altuve and Alvarez obviously aren’t getting traded. Hader anchors the bullpen and is headed into the third season of a five-year deal; he’s not going anywhere. Imai, Weiss and Pearson signed free agent contracts this offseason. That only leaves three possibilities from this group.

Javier is headed into the fourth season of a five-year, $64MM extension. His deal comes with a $12.8MM luxury tax hit. Tommy John surgery wiped out most of his last two seasons. He made it back for eight starts at the end of last year. His whiff rate was down compared to pre-surgery levels but the raw stuff didn’t look much different. It’s fair to attribute his inconsistency to some rust off the layoff. A team with a deeper rotation might consider selling low in this situation, but that’s not a luxury the Astros can afford. They’d need to replace him in the middle of the rotation and are unlikely to find anyone better in free agency for less than $13MM annually.

McCullers is making $17MM in the final season of his five-year extension. Injuries cost him all of 2023-24. He pitched to a 6.51 ERA around three more IL stints last year. He might be looking at minor league offers if he were a free agent. No one is taking any of this contact unless the Astros attach a prospect to convince a team to pay down a small percentage. Maybe that’d work for a rebuilding club, but McCullers also locked in full no-trade rights when he crossed the 10-year service threshold last season. There’s probably not much to be done about this one.

Of the players on guaranteed deals, that only leaves Walker. He’s owed $40MM over the next two seasons and counts for $20MM against the tax ledger. His first year in Houston was a disappointment. Despite hitting 27 homers, he had a below-average .238/.297/.421 batting line over 640 plate appearances. Walker’s typically excellent defensive metrics tanked. He picked things up offensively with a near-.800 OPS in the second half, though even that narrative is clouded by a .277 on-base percentage in September.

Altogether, Baseball Reference graded Walker as a replacement level player. FanGraphs credited him with one win. He wouldn’t come close to $40MM for his age 35-36 seasons if he were a free agent. Even getting another team to cover half the contract would be a stretch. (Ryan O’Hearn, who is two years younger, just signed a two-year deal at $14.5MM annually coming off a .281/.366/.437 season that was valued between 2-3 WAR.) The Astros could probably find a taker if they paid Walker down to $7-8MM per season, yet that’d be a lot of dead money to eat a third of the way into the contract. General manager Dana Brown downplayed the chance of moving Walker at the GM Meetings in early November, calling him the team’s “everyday first baseman.”

Arbitration-Eligible Players (12)

There’s no chance of a Hunter Brown trade. Dana Brown said at the Winter Meetings that teams weren’t even asking about Peña because they’re aware “there’s no way” they’d move their franchise shortstop (via Rome).

De Los Santos will make $1.6MM after avoiding arbitration. The Astros could have non-tendered him if they just wanted that small amount off the books. Okert, Allen, Sousa and Wesneski are all projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for $2MM salaries or less. Savings compared to the $780K minimum would be negligible. They’re useful role players or, in Wesneski’s case, a potentially valuable long-term piece.

Abreu ($5.9MM projection) and Diaz ($4.5MM projection) are probably too valuable to trade. The former is their best setup man, the latter their starting catcher. While there’d be significant interest in both, they’re not easily replaced by someone making the league minimum. That leaves three players: Paredes, Meyers and Sánchez.

Paredes is projected for a $9.3MM salary and has two years of remaining control. The GM said in November that the team had “no interest” in moving him. Paredes had an excellent start to his Astros tenure, hitting 20 homers with a .254/.352/.458 line over 438 plate appearances. He missed most of the second half with a significant hamstring injury. The Astros responded by acquiring Correa to play third base. Paredes could factor in at second base but is unlikely to be a strong defender there. Walker is penciled in at first for now with Alvarez and Altuve splitting left field and designated hitter.

The Astros dangled Meyers for a controllable starter early in the offseason. It would’ve been a bit of a sell-high situation on the heels of a career-best .292/.354/.373 showing at the plate. He’s less likely to move now that the Astros dealt outfield prospect Jacob Melton to Tampa Bay in the three-team trade to land starter Mike Burrows. Meyers’ $3.5MM projection isn’t onerous, and trading him would place a lot of faith in rookie Zach Cole to step up as an everyday center fielder.

That may leave Sánchez as their top candidate for a pure salary dump move. He’s projected for a $6.5MM salary, and it came as a surprise that Houston tendered him a contract at all. Sánchez was a disappointment after a deadline deal from Miami, batting .199/.269/.342 over 160 plate appearances while making a handful of defensive lapses. They could shop Sánchez and add a cheaper left-handed free agent outfielder (e.g. Mike Tauchman, Michael Conforto) to compete with Cole and Cam Smith for right field playing time.

The Rockies’ Outfield Trade Possibilities

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The Rockies have yet to make any significant moves since Paul DePodesta assumed control of baseball operations two months ago. They’re one of two teams that has yet to sign a free agent to a major league deal. Unlike the Red Sox (the other team for which that’s the case), Colorado hasn’t done much via trade either. Their only moves on the trade front were to acquire lefty reliever Brennan Bernardino from Boston and to deal former first-round pick Ryan Rolison away for cash.

A quiet offseason was always to be expected for a new executive working with one of the worst rosters in MLB history. The Rox aren’t going to invest much in the 2026 team. They don’t have many productive veterans to dangle on the trade market. The exception might be in the outfield, as DePodesta hinted that he could subtract from that area to try to add controllable pitching.

Let’s look at the possibilities.

Brenton Doyle

Doyle probably has the highest ceiling of Colorado’s outfielders. He may also be the least likely to move. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported last month that the Rox were reluctant to sell low on the 27-year-old center fielder. Doyle is under arbitration control for four seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $3.2MM salary.

A stellar defensive player, Doyle has been a target for teams looking for help in a thin center fielder market. The question is whether he’s capable of providing anything at the plate. Doyle looked to have taken a step forward in 2024. He hit 23 homers while cutting his strikeout rate nearly 10 percentage points from his 35% mark as a rookie. The bat dramatically regressed last year, as he stumbled to a .233/.274/.376 line with 15 homers. He kept his strikeout rate around 25% but hit more ground balls and made less of a power impact than he had the previous year.

Mickey Moniak

Moniak is coming off his best year at the plate. Signed to a $1.25MM contract after being released by the Angels in Spring Training, the lefty hitter popped a career-high 24 homers for Colorado. He batted .270/.306/.518 across 461 trips to the dish. Moniak made hard contact (a 95 MPH+ exit velocity) on 45% of his balls in play, easily the best mark of his six MLB seasons.

The surface numbers would seem to make the former first overall pick a strong trade chip for a rebuilding team. The underlying splits aren’t so flattering. Moniak did the vast majority of his damage at Coors Field, where he hit .303/.348/.598 with 15 longballs. His .230/.255/.425 slash away from Denver is a lot less encouraging. Moniak’s rate stats are inflated by his usage, as the Rox shielded him to 60 plate appearances against left-handed pitching.

There was also a dramatic dip in Moniak’s defensive grades. He had graded as a solid, albeit not exceptional, defender who could handle all three outfield spots with the Angels. His numbers in Colorado were well below average no matter where he played. Moniak remains a plus runner with an average arm, so the tools are there to be a competent defender, but it’s another question for interested clubs.

Moniak has between four and five years of service time. He’s controllable through 2027 and projected for a $4.2MM arbitration salary.

Tyler Freeman

Colorado landed Freeman in last offseason’s Nolan Jones trade with the Guardians. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each graded him around a win below replacement level in his first year in Colorado. However, he showed more or less the same profile he had in Cleveland that made him a trade target for the Rox a year ago.

Freeman hit .281/.354/.361 while striking out in fewer than 12% of his 428 plate appearances. He was easily the team’s most consistent on-base threat. The 26-year-old has zero power but he puts the ball in play and has plus speed. As was the case with Moniak, Freeman’s WAR was depressed by dreadful defensive metrics that don’t fully align with his athleticism and arm strength.

A team that views the defensive grades as a one-year blip could still be in on Freeman as a utility piece for whom they’re willing to swap a depth arm. He’s controllable for three seasons with a $1.8MM arbitration projection and has a minor league option remaining.

Jordan Beck

A supplemental first-round pick in 2022, Beck got his first look at MLB pitching two years later. He had a rough go as a rookie, striking out at a 35% clip while hitting .188 over his first 55 games. His sophomore season was more promising. Beck spent a couple weeks in Triple-A in April but was otherwise on the MLB roster for the entire season. He worked as Colorado’s primary left fielder and put up decent counting stats. Beck hit 16 home runs, 27 doubles, and five triples while stealing 19 bases.

Beck’s .258/.317/.416 batting line was worse than league average after accounting for Coors Field. He whiffed on nearly 30% of his swings and struggled down the stretch, hitting .250/.316/.377 with a 32% strikeout rate after the All-Star Break. Beck’s physical tools are intriguing. He has above-average bat speed, runs well, and has a strong arm. The approach and pure hitting ability have been questions dating back to his college days, though, and the Rockies are probably better holding onto him to see if he makes any strides at age 25.

Yanquiel Fernández/Zac Veen

Veen and Fernández are left-handed hitting corner outfielders who once ranked among the top offensive prospects in the Colorado system. Both players hit well in the low minors but have seemingly plateaued against upper level pitching. Neither has any kind of MLB track record. Veen has only played in 12 big league games. Fernández hit .225/.265/.348 over 147 plate appearances as a rookie.

Both players have options remaining. They’re probably ticketed for Triple-A Albuquerque as things stand. They’re each young enough to be change of scenery candidates if Colorado’s new regime isn’t as bullish on them as the previous front office had been. That’s theoretically also true of prospect Sterlin Thompson, the only other outfielder on the 40-man roster. Thompson seems likelier to get a chance to play his way into Warren Schaeffer’s outfield next season on the heels of a .296/.392/.519 showing in Albuquerque.

Which Team Will Sign Kazuma Okamoto?

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There are less than 48 hours until the posting window closes for NPB slugger Kazuma Okamoto. His first MLB contract needs to be finalized by Sunday at 4:00 pm Central. There’s a good chance Okamoto agrees to terms by tomorrow. Tatsuya Imai agreed to a three-year deal with the Astros yesterday to leave a day for a standard physical before his own signing deadline this afternoon.

The right-handed hitting Okamoto is one of the more interesting mid-tier free agent bats. He’s a career .277/.361/.521 hitter over parts of 11 seasons at Japan’s highest level. Okamoto was limited to 69 games last year by an elbow injury. That kept his counting stats down, yet his .327/.416/.598 slash line was the best rate production of his career. He has six 30-homer seasons on his résumé and walked as often as he struck out last year.

Okamoto is headed into his age-30 season. It’s unlikely that he’ll command a long-term deal, especially after younger Japanese stars Imai and Munetaka Murakami found cold enough markets to take short contracts. He should land with a club that views him as a potential middle-of-the-order bat for the next few seasons. While Okamoto doesn’t have the eye-popping power that Murakami brings to the table, he should have a higher floor based on his superior bat-to-ball skills. Okamoto made contact on 80.4% of his swings last year; Murakami’s contact rate has been below 64% in consecutive seasons.

Both players are corner bats. Murakami is expected to be a first baseman for the White Sox. Okamoto’s position probably depends on his landing spot. One scout with whom MLBTR spoke at the beginning of the offseason opined that he could play a serviceable but unspectacular third base. Okamoto made 52 appearances at the hot corner and played 27 games at first base for the Yomiuri Giants last season. He was primarily a first baseman the year before that, making 130 appearances there against 39 outings at third.

Okamoto was a full-time infielder last year. He has 164 career appearances on the outfield grass, though, including 15 two seasons ago. Will Sammon of The Athletic floated the possibility of an MLB team giving Okamoto some work in left field as another way to get his bat in the lineup.

The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates, Padres, Angels and Cubs have been at least loosely connected to Okamoto during his posting window. San Diego’s and Pittsburgh’s interest has come up most frequently, though it’s unclear how much to take from that. The White Sox weren’t tied to Murakami until very late in the process, while it wasn’t publicly known that the Astros were involved on Imai at all until an agreement was done.

Where will Okamoto end up?

 

Astros Designate Kaleb Ort For Assignment

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The Astros announced they’ve designated reliever Kaleb Ort for assignment. That opened the 40-man roster spot to finalize their three-year free agent deal with Tatsuya Imai.

Ort landed in Houston on a waiver claim from Baltimore early in the 2024 season. He turned in a 2.55 earned run average across 22 games the rest of the way. Ort made a career-high 49 appearances last year but was unable to maintain the numbers he showed in a smaller sample. He allowed 4.89 earned runs per nine across 46 innings.

The righty missed bats at an above-average clip and struck out more than a quarter of opposing hitters. That came alongside a near-14% walk rate, however, well above the 4.3% mark he’d posted in his MLB work a year earlier. Ort also allowed a higher than average home run rate for a third consecutive season. While manager Joe Espada preferred to use him in the middle innings, he was pressed into a few higher-leverage spots when Josh Hader and Bennett Sousa were lost to injury in August. That pushed Bryan Abreu into the closing role and left Ort as one of their more established right-handed setup arms.

It unfortunately didn’t take long before Ort joined his bullpen mates on the injured list. He went down with elbow inflammation at the beginning of September. That knocked him out for the rest of the season. There’s no indication he won’t be ready for Spring Training, but he was already on the roster bubble. Ort is out of minor league options and approaching his 34th birthday.

Houston has Hader, Abreu, Sousa, Steven Okert and Bryan King in the season-opening bullpen, assuming health. Enyel De Los Santos and Nate Pearson are out of options and near-locks to break camp. Pearson signed a $1.35MM free agent deal, while De Los Santos is guaranteed a $1.6MM salary after avoiding arbitration. There wouldn’t have been much flexibility for in-season maneuvering if they also carried Ort. He’ll be traded or placed on waivers within the next five days. Ort has less than three years of MLB service and no prior outright assignments, so the Astros could keep him around as a non-roster invitee if he gets through waivers unclaimed.

Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

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Anthony Franco

  • Good afternoon, hope you've all had a good holiday season!
  • Lots in the queue today, let's get rolling

Natitude Dude

  • Is M Gore getting dealt this off-season? If so, what kind of return can be expected after the Baz deal?

Anthony Franco

  • I still think he'll get moved this offseason. Would expect a better headliner than Tampa Bay got in the Baz trade and a slightly stronger package overall. Think Gore's more valuable despite Baz have the extra year of arbitration control

KerryFam4

  • We’ve now had two Japanese players sign short term deals with opt-outs at lower than expected rates.  Do you think that will impact the remaining unsigned Japanese player(s)?  Should we read anything from that into the markets for Tucker, Bichette, Bregman, Valdez, etc?

Anthony Franco

  • Not reading a whole lot into it. Seems more that MLB teams didn't think Murakami or Imai are particularly good
  • If all the top free agents are still unsigned two or three weeks from now, I'd come more around to the idea that of shorter-term contracts with outs for them

gavin

  • should the padres trade pivetta to the cubs/mets/yankees for prospects and sign basset or giolito?

Anthony Franco

  • I think it's too cute. Pivetta's just much better than those guys and the rotation is pretty weak beyond the top three. I understand the concern about potentially losing Pivetta and King next offseason, but the Padres are almost always operating in some kind of chaos like that because they overpaid Bogaerts, Darvish and Cronenworth

Guest

  • In your opinion, which outlet is the best for prospect coverage? Is there one you guys typically use?

Anthony Franco

  • Baseball America's the gold standard for me, but there's obviously a lot of good work out there and value in getting different outlets' opinions on players. We'll reference BA, FanGraphs, Kiley McDaniel's work at ESPN, Keith Law at The Athletic and MLB Pipeline

Arise, Sir Loin of Beef

  • Are there any upper tier OFs available in a trade this year?

Anthony Franco

  • It's not great, especially if Boston holds everybody. Donovan could kind of fit that description even though he's more impactful at second base and/or bouncing around the infield. We've seen that kind of ceiling from Robert and Nootbaar before but not recently
  • I think it's more likely to come available at the deadline. Red Sox are pretty well positioned on the pitching staff now but injuries could change that by the summer. If Cleveland struggles, Kwan should go in July. Maybe Minnesota reevaluates on Buxton and their top starters at that point if their half-in hope of competing this year blows up

A's or Marlins?

  • Between the A's and Marlins, which team do you believe is in a stronger position to compete for a wild card spot this season?

Anthony Franco

  • I'd take Miami's roster right now but that probably flips if the A's add a mid-rotation caliber starter. Still think they're both long shots but more realistic dark horses than they've been entering any of the past couple seasons

Confused

  • Why is Brendan Donovan so highly-sought after? Minimal power and he doesn’t have the .300 batting average to offset that?

Anthony Franco

  • Almost no one hits .300 anymore. There were seven qualified hitters who have done that in each of the past two seasons. Donovan's a reliable bet to hit .280 with an OBP above .350. Not huge power but enough for double-digit homers and 30 doubles
  • It's really tough to find players who do that while playing up the middle. The league average second baseman last year hit .243/.310/.371

Chris

  • Who is one player you think could possibly be traded this offseason who has not been speculated in trade discussions?

Anthony Franco

  • Still think the Giants should trade Robbie Ray to clear $25M next year for a move at second base or in right field

Giacomo Puccini

  • Who’s the best active player not to win an MVP?

  • Unlock Subscriber-Exclusive Articles Like This One With a Trade Rumors Front Office Subscription

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Will The Royals Trade A Starter?

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Early in the offseason, Royals president of baseball operations J.J. Picollo said the team was open to trading a starting pitcher for offense. That would have been focused on the outfield, which has been a problem for the club for years.

Kansas City has acquired a pair of outfielders in the month since Picollo’s comments. They signed Lane Thomas to a reclamation $5.5MM free agent deal, then swapped lefty reliever Angel Zerpa to Milwaukee for Isaac Collins and middle reliever Nick Mears. Those moves raised the floor relative to where the outfield stood at the end of the 2025 season, yet it remains one of the weaker on-paper groups in MLB.

Kyle Isbel is a low-end regular in center field. Collins had a strong season but was a 27-year-old rookie whose results outpaced mediocre batted ball metrics. The Royals probably don’t expect him to be more than an average regular in left field. Jac Caglianone has the highest ceiling of the group, but MLB pitchers exploited his aggressive plate approach in his first 62 games. Caglianone so thoroughly dominated the minor leagues that the Royals might feel he has little to learn by going back to Triple-A. Still, there are sure to be peaks and valleys even if he takes a step forward in his first full MLB season. Thomas battled injuries and was mostly unproductive after being traded from the Nationals to the Guardians at the ’24 deadline.

Depth options John Rave, Dairon Blanco, Drew Waters and Kameron Misner (acquired in a DFA trade with Tampa Bay) have shown very little at the big league level. That makes it unsurprising that the Royals continue to monitor the outfield market after the Collins/Thomas deals. Working with seemingly limited payroll space and a weak farm system, trading a starter could still be on the table — even if it seems less likely than it did a month ago.

Picollo has strongly downplayed the chance of moving Cole Ragans. He’s controllable for three seasons and has shown ace upside but is coming off a significant rotator cuff injury. They extended Michael Wacha last offseason and Seth Lugo before the trade deadline. It’s hard to see either veteran righty going anywhere.

Left-hander Kris Bubic is headed into his final season of arbitration control. He pitched at a top-of-the-rotation level but suffered a season-ending rotator cuff strain not long after the All-Star Break. Southpaw Noah Cameron had a sub-3.00 ERA over his first 24 career starts despite a below-average 20.5% strikeout rate. Controllable depth arms Ryan Bergert and Stephen Kolek have drawn interest but have minor league options and could be key injury insurance in Triple-A. They’re presumably open to moving Bailey Falter, but he’d have minimal trade value. Alec Marsh has gotten interest in the past but underwent labrum surgery in November and will likely miss the entire season.

Will anyone from that group be on the move before Opening Day?

 

The Rays’ Second Base Options

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The Rays made a pair of significant trades last month, shipping Shane Baz to Baltimore and Brandon Lowe to Pittsburgh on the same day. The Baz move probably means they’re going to dip back into free agency for a cheap back-end starter after signing Steven Matz to a two-year deal. It’s less clear what they have planned at second base, a position that Lowe has locked down (when healthy) for the past seven years.

Free agency doesn’t offer much excitement. It seems safe to assume the Rays aren’t signing Bo Bichette. The open market options beyond that include Willi Castro, Ramón Urías and Luis Rengifo. The biggest swings they could take are on the trade market.

Tampa Bay hasn’t been prominently tied to Brendan Donovan. They’ve had conversations with the Diamondbacks about Ketel Marte going back to the Winter Meetings. Those preliminary talks involved both Baz and Ryan Pepiot. That framework is obviously no longer an option, and while the Rays could make a compelling package involving Pepiot and controllable relief help, Arizona GM Mike Hazen indicated earlier this week that they could soon cut off talks regarding Marte altogether. Each of Jake Cronenworth, Nico Hoerner and Jazz Chisholm Jr. feel like long shot trade candidates.

If the Rays don’t find a clear answer outside the organization, where could they turn at the keystone?

Richie Palacios

Marc Topkin of The Tampa Bay Times wrote last month that Palacios was likely to be the top internal option. Acquired from the Cardinals over the 2023-24 offseason, the left-handed hitter turned in a .223/.346/.318 line over 316 plate appearances in his first season with the club. He batted .333 with a .396 on-base percentage last year but was limited to 17 games. Palacios fractured his right ring finger during Spring Training and began the season on the injured list. He returned in April but quickly suffered a right knee sprain that kept him out until September.

Palacios had missed two months late in the ’24 campaign with a sprain of the same knee. He has played in barely more than a third of the team’s games over the past two seasons. “(He’s) a player we really appreciate, but he’s got to prove healthy,” president of baseball operations Erik Neander told Topkin in December. “He’s certainly a candidate internally, but we’re going to give ourselves a little bit of time to sort through it.”

At his best, Palacios shows the makings of a potential high-OBP bat. He takes a lot of pitches and has good contact skills with solid line drive rates. Palacios doesn’t have huge power but has a .370 on-base percentage over five Triple-A seasons. While the Rays haven’t given him much of a look against lefty pitching in the big leagues, he has more than held his own in his limited opportunities.

Taylor Walls

Walls is a more well-known commodity. He’s a 29-year-old who owns a .195/.286/.298 career batting line in more than 1500 plate appearances. He’s not going to produce at the plate. The Rays love Walls as an up-the-middle defensive player. Public metrics have been bizarrely divided on his work. Statcast’s Outs Above Average grades him below average, yet Defensive Runs Saved annually rates him as a Gold Glove caliber infielder.

The Rays’ internal evaluation must align much more closely to the DRS view. They wouldn’t continue bringing Walls back via arbitration if they didn’t consider him a defensive asset. He’ll play next season on a $2.45MM salary and is controlled for 2027 via $3.1MM team option. Walls will get a lot of action in the middle infield, but he’s likely to begin the season on the left side of the bag.

Tampa Bay waived Ha-Seong Kim in August and used rookie Carson Williams as their shortstop for the final month of the 2025 season. The 22-year-old was overmatched, striking out 44 times and batting .172 in 32 games. Williams also struck out in more than 34% of his Triple-A plate appearances. He has power and is a plus defensive shortstop but is likely to head back to Triple-A to continue working on getting his contact rate to a manageable level.

That’d leave Walls as the only real choice to play shortstop in the early going. Free agency and the trade market are even thinner there than they are at second base. Walls could kick over to second base midseason if Williams plays his way back to the majors.

Position Change Hypotheticals

While the Rays generally have a stockpile of multi-positional players, that’s not so much a strength of the current roster. Jonathan Aranda came up as a second baseman but moved off the position for defensive reasons. He has only played 141 innings there in the big leagues and was a full-time first baseman last year. Aranda is a below-average athlete and runner who probably isn’t moving back up the defensive spectrum.

Chandler Simpson was a middle infielder in college but has been a full-time outfielder since being drafted in 2022. Topkin notes that the 25-year-old took some pregame infield drills late in the season, though it’s not clear if the Rays will continue that next year. Despite being one of the fastest players in the sport, Simpson isn’t an especially gifted defensive outfielder. Maybe that’ll lead the coaching staff to give serious consideration to testing him on the dirt in 2026. Simpson stole 44 bases while batting .295/.326/.345 with zero home runs in 109 games as a rookie.

Cubs Notes: Imai, Okamoto

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Tatsuya Imai came off the board this afternoon. He agreed to terms with the Astros on a three-year, $54MM guarantee with opt-outs after the first two seasons. It was both a surprise landing spot and contract, as the NPB right-hander had generally been expected to pull a nine-figure deal that probably would have priced him out of Houston.

The Cubs were among the teams most commonly speculated as a fit for Imai over his 45-day posting window. Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote last month that Chicago was involved but reluctant to make a long-term commitment that valued him as a top-of-the-rotation arm. The rest of the market evidently shared that trepidation.

Mark Feinsand of MLB.com writes that the Cubs appear to have been the top competition to Houston by the end of the signing period. Both Feinsand and Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggest that neither the Yankees nor Mets were heavily involved. The Yankees may be more focused on the lineup — they reportedly have an offer out to Cody Bellinger — while previous reporting has indicated the Mets aren’t eager to make a long-term investment in a free agent starter. Imai apparently was not going to be an exception, as Feinsand writes that the Mets weren’t convinced he’d be a top-of-the-rotation starter.

An upper mid-rotation starter has been the Cubs’ biggest need all offseason. They’ve yet to make any moves in the rotation aside from declining their option on and then retaining Shota Imanaga via the qualifying offer. They’re still lacking a high-end complement to Cade Horton at the top of the staff, at least until Justin Steele returns from April’s elbow surgery.

Imanaga had a terrible final few weeks as his home run rate spiked. Matthew Boyd was excellent in the first half but appeared to wear down as the season went along. His 179 2/3 innings pitched were 101 more than he’d thrown in any MLB season since 2019. Boyd took a 2.34 earned run average into the All-Star Break but allowed a 4.63 mark over his final 12 appearances. His strikeout rate dropped more than four percentage points in the second half. He’s headed into his age-35 season. Jameson Taillon, Colin Rea and Javier Assad profile as back-end or swing options.

The Cubs could still pursue any of Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez or Zac Gallen if they want to add a starter via free agency. Teams have set significant asking prices in talks involving starting pitching, though the likes of MacKenzie Gore or Kris Bubic remain trade candidates.

RosterResource calculates Chicago’s luxury tax projection around $210MM. That leaves them almost $35MM below the base threshold and $21MM shy of their season-ending mark from 2025. They should have some payroll flexibility. If they don’t like the value on any available starting pitchers, they could potentially turn their attention to the offense as a way to replace some of the production lost from Kyle Tucker (whom they’re not expected to re-sign).

The Cubs have been loosely linked to third basemen, in particular. Reports have tied them to Alex Bregman and Eugenio Suárez, though president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer gave a firm vote of confidence to in-house third baseman Matt Shaw. This evening, Heyman listed the Cubs among a number of teams that have shown some interest in NPB star Kazuma Okamoto. The right-handed hitting corner infielder has until Sunday afternoon to sign.

Okamoto has been also been tied to the Padres, Pirates, Blue Jays, Red Sox and Angels this offseason. Most of those teams make more sense as landing spots than the Cubs, who have Shaw and Michael Busch at the corners. Plugging Okamoto in at designated hitter would block the path to at-bats for young hitters Moisés Ballesteros and Owen Caissie. Okamoto could take at-bats against lefty pitching from Busch but would have a cleaner path to everyday playing time with a team like Pittsburgh (at third base) or San Diego (at first base).

Yankees Have Reportedly Made Offer To Cody Bellinger

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The Yankees made a formal contract offer to Cody Bellinger this week, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Specifics of the proposal aren’t known.

General manager Brian Cashman has made no secret of the team’s desire to keep Bellinger. The former MVP’s first year in the Bronx was excellent. He hit .272/.334/.480 with 29 home runs, his most in a season since 2019. Bellinger’s bat played very well at Yankee Stadium, where he put up a .302/.365/.544 line with 18 longballs.

New York acquired Bellinger from the Cubs last winter in what amounted to a salary dump. They parted with journeyman righty Cody Poteet while assuming all but $5MM of the remaining two years and $52.5MM on Bellinger’s contract. As he ended up opting out, the Yankees paid $27.5MM for that excellent year. It might require a five- or six-year commitment to bring him back as he enters his age-30 season.

The Yankees have had a quiet first couple months of the offseason. Their only move of significance was issuing the qualifying offer to Trent Grisham. He surprisingly accepted and is back in center field on a one-year deal at $22.025MM. Bellinger was ineligible to receive the QO after getting one from the Cubs over the 2023-24 offseason.

Grisham’s salary accounts for the majority of the $29.025MM they’ve spent in free agency so far. The remaining $7MM has been divided among a trio of one-year deals to bring back Paul Blackburn, Amed Rosario and Ryan Yarbrough. Their only MLB acquisition from outside the organization has been Rule 5 pick Cade Winquest.

That certainly won’t be the Yankees’ entire offseason. They presumably expected Bellinger’s free agency to carry well into the winter. The top two free agent hitters, Kyle Tucker and Bo Bichette, each make sense on paper if Bellinger heads elsewhere. Signing one of Tucker or Bellinger would allow them to rotate their outfielders through the designated hitter spot if Giancarlo Stanton spends any time on the injured list. Bellinger could spell Ben Rice at first base and/or take playing time in left field from Jasson Domínguez, who still has a pair of options remaining.

An outfielder isn’t an absolute necessity, but it’s probably the cleanest path to adding an impact position player. Shortstop would be the primary alternative. Bichette is the only real solution there and faces questions about his defensive fit. He could be an option to handle shortstop for a season and move over to second base once Jazz Chisholm Jr. hits free agency a year from now. The Yankees have reportedly made Chisholm available in trade conversations, but that’d swap out one of their better all-around position players in the process.

The other option would be to make a rotation splash with Gerrit Cole, Carlos Rodón and Clarke Schmidt opening the season on the injured list. Framber Valdez, Ranger Suárez and Zac Gallen are the best remaining free agent starters now that NPB righty Tatsuya Imai is off the board on a three-year deal with Houston. The Yankees were one of the teams linked to Imai when he was a free agent, but both Heyman and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote after the signing that the Yanks were not seriously involved in the bidding.

RosterResource projects the Yankees for a $286MM luxury tax number. Owner Hal Steinbrenner has spoken generally about a desire to stay below the $300MM mark in the past, though Cashman suggested in November that’s not a firm limit this offseason. The Yankees had a $320MM luxury tax payroll at the end of the 2025 season.

The Best Fits For Tatsuya Imai

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Decision time nears for Japanese right-hander Tatsuya Imai. He needs to finalize a contract with an MLB team by Friday at 4:00 pm Central if he's to make the move stateside this year. There's no indication that he's considering sticking with the Seibu Lions, meaning an agreement should be imminent. While there's a little over 48 hours to make the deal official, Imai must agree to terms with enough margin to complete a standard physical.

The 27-year-old (28 in May) is conducting in-person meetings with interested teams in Los Angeles this week. The 5’11” righty has been one of Japan’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. He’s coming off a 1.92 ERA showing with 178 strikeouts across 163 2/3 innings. Imai has an NPB-best 27% strikeout rate since the start of 2024. He sits in the mid-90s with a promising slider. Command was an issue earlier in his career, but his strike-throwing has progressed as he has gained experience. This past season’s 7% walk rate was a personal low and better than the MLB average.

Whichever team that signs Imai will owe a release fee to the Lions. That’s proportional to the contract value: 20% of the first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of all further spending. Imai isn't expected to come close to the $325MM deal that Yoshinobu Yamamoto commanded two offseasons ago. He's a few years older and simply not as good. Yet it's generally believed that he'll command a nine-figure guarantee, perhaps into the $150MM range, from a team that feels he's a mid-rotation arm.

Which clubs are best positioned to make that investment? Salary projections are courtesy of RosterResource.

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