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2025 Non-Tender Candidates

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The non-tender deadline is Friday evening. Teams need to decide whether they want to offer contracts to their arbitration-eligible (and pre-arbitration) players. Those who are not tendered contracts are sent directly into free agency without exposing them to waivers.

As is the case each winter, MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz has projected salaries for the arbitration class. Some of those players have already been dropped from the roster. A few of the most obvious cuts were dropped within the first five days of the offseason as teams needed to get their offseason roster counts back to 40 without the benefit of the injured list.

Some more were designated for assignment on Tuesday as teams opened space for prospects whom they wanted to keep out of the Rule 5 draft. Those players remain in DFA limbo and are marked below with an asterisk. There’s still a scenario in which they’re tendered a contract. The club that DFA them could trade them before Friday to a team that is fine with the projected arbitration price and keeps them around. While that might happen for a player or two, the vast majority of them will just be non-tendered.

Not everyone who is tendered a contract will know their salary this week. Some players will sign “pre-tender” deals that lock in guaranteed money. Many of them are borderline non-tender candidates who will take salaries below their projection to ensure they stay on the roster at all. (A’s catcher Austin Wynns has already taken this kind of deal.) Those who don’t sign but are tendered a contract could have a few months of uncertainty. They’re free to continue negotiating with their clubs to find a mutually agreeable salary until the date of their arbitration hearing.

The collective bargaining agreement incentivizes borderline roster players to settle without a hearing even if they’re tendered a contract. Arbitration settlements are fully guaranteed. Salaries determined at a hearing (regardless of whether the arbitrator chose the club’s or player’s filing figure) are not locked in until the beginning of the regular season. If a player whose salary was determined at a hearing is released during the offseason or in Spring Training, they’re only entitled to termination pay. That’d be 30 days at their prorated salary if the release occurs more than 15 days before Opening Day and 45 days of termination pay if the release happens within 15 days of the start of the season.

As we do each offseason, we’ll take a look at arb-eligible players we believe have a realistic shot at being let go. To be clear, this is not a list of players we think are likelier than not to be non-tendered. These are players we consider to have at least a 10-20% chance of being cut — a broad group who wouldn’t strike us as completely surprising. We’re only looking at players who are eligible for arbitration. There’ll be plenty of pre-arbitration players from the back of teams’ rosters who are dropped (often to immediately re-sign on minor league deals), but those are outside the scope of this post.

Onto the list, with Matt’s projected salaries:

Catchers

First Basemen

Second Basemen

Third Basemen

Shortstops

Center Fielders

Corner Outfielders

Designated Hitters

Starting Pitchers

Right-Handed Relievers

Left-Handed Relievers

* Indicates player is currently in DFA limbo
^ Traded for one another since the list was published

Braves, Astros Swap Mauricio Dubón For Nick Allen

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The Astros and Braves announced a one-for-one swap of middle infielders. Utility player Mauricio Dubón is headed to Atlanta with defensive specialist Nick Allen on his way to Houston.

Atlanta takes on a few million dollars to upgrade their infield. Dubón, 31, spent nearly four seasons in Houston. The Astros acquired him from the Giants in a minor trade early in 2022. It was a nice pickup, as he developed into a versatile and generally reliable piece off the bench. Dubón won two utility Gold Glove awards while playing all three infield positions to the left of first base and a decent amount of center and left field.

The righty-swinging Dubón was a league average hitter a couple seasons ago, batting .278/.309/.411 with 10 homers in nearly 500 trips to the dish. His offense has declined in each of the past two years. He’s coming off a .241/.289/.355 showing with seven longballs through 398 plate appearances and carries a .256/.293/.358 line over the past two seasons. He’s very difficult to strike out but rarely walks and has well below-average power.

Still, that light bat is a significant upgrade over what Allen brings to the table offensively. The 27-year-old Allen didn’t hit a single home run in 416 trips to the dish this year. He turned in a .211/.284/.251 line that made him easily the worst hitter to take 400+ plate appearances. Allen ranked in the bottom 20 hitters in on-base percentage, while his slugging mark was more than .040 points lower than the second-lowest in MLB (.296 by Victor Scott II). He owns a .213/.265/.272 slash in nearly 1200 plate appearances over parts of four seasons.

Allen has continued to get playing time because of his superlative glove. He has been touted as an excellent infielder dating back to his high school days. Allen has posted fantastic defensive marks in every season of his career. Defensive Runs Saved graded him as the third-best shortstop in MLB this year behind Mookie Betts and Zach Neto. Statcast’s Outs Above Average also had him third, albeit behind Bobby Witt Jr. and Masyn Winn.

Dubón is unlikely to be that caliber of defender if he were pressed into everyday shortstop work. Statcast has graded him as a plus defender in his 721 career innings at the position though. Defensive Runs Saved has him right around league average. Dubón should be capable of playing there every day, and he’s not a complete zero offensively. That’s particularly true in favorable platoon matchups, as he’s a .288/.329/.417 hitter versus left-handed pitching over the past three years.

The Braves couldn’t afford to enter next season with Allen atop the shortstop depth chart. Dubón would be a low-end regular but provides a higher floor. This shouldn’t detract from Atlanta’s interest in re-signing Ha-Seong Kim. Dubón has the versatility to provide cover behind Ozzie Albies and Austin Riley at second and third base while complementing lefty-hitting Michael Harris II in center field. Still, he’s at least a reasonable one-year fallback if Kim signs elsewhere in a market devoid of shortstop alternatives in free agency or trade.

Dubón is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $5.8MM salary. Allen is eligible for arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and under control for four years. He’s projected at $1.5MM. Houston cuts a little more than $4MM from the books while downgrading in the utility role.

Allen isn’t going to play shortstop barring an injury to Jeremy Peña, but he can offer a glove-only option at second base. Jose Altuve is the primary starter there for now, but the Astros hope to continue splitting his playing time between the keystone, left field, and designated hitter. They’ve been tied to Brendan Donovan in trade conversations and could consider other possibilities (e.g. a Brandon Lowe trade, Jorge Polanco in free agency) if the Cardinals deal Donovan elsewhere. They’ll ideally add a left-handed bat to balance a righty-heavy lineup. Allen is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to be on the active roster or designated for assignment.

Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reported that Dubón had been traded to the Braves just before the announcements. Respective images courtesy of Jerome Miron and Brett Davis, Imagn Images.

Braves Re-Sign Raisel Iglesias

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The Braves announced they’ve re-signed free agent closer Raisel Iglesias to a one-year, $16MM deal. The PRIME client returns for what’ll be a fifth season in Atlanta on the same salary he made in 2025.

As is often the case with Braves moves, the signing comes out of the blue. President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested at the GM Meetings the team was more focused on addressing shortstop and upgrading the starting rotation while keeping the bullpen on the back burner. That apparently changed with the opportunity to keep Iglesias, who remains a high-end reliever as he enters his age-36 season.

The 11-year veteran carries a 2.35 earned run average in 218 2/3 innings since the Braves acquired him from the Angels at the 2022 trade deadline. He’s fourth in MLB with 113 saves since the start of that season. Iglesias posted a sub-3.00 ERA each season between 2020-24 as one of the steadier closers in the league.

Things seemed as if they might come off the rails early in 2025. Iglesias gave up an early-season home run barrage, including five longballs in April alone. He surrendered seven round-trippers before the end of May and carried an ugly 5.91 ERA through the first two months. The switch flipped over the summer, as Iglesias was one of the league’s best late-game arms from the beginning of June onward. He reeled off 46 frames of 1.96 ERA ball while striking out 29.3% of opponents over the season’s final four months. Iglesias only gave up one home run in that time despite a massive 54.5% fly-ball rate.

The truth certainly lies somewhere between those two extremes. Iglesias wasn’t going to continue giving up homers on a quarter of fly-balls, as he did early in the year, nor will he maintain the sub-2% homer/fly rate he posted later in the season. That’ll be the main concern moving forward, but his strikeout and walk profile remains strong. Iglesias punched out 27.4% of opponents against a tidy 6% walk rate. He turned in a 3.21 ERA overall while going 29-34 in save chances — coming up just shy of the sixth 30-save showing of his career.

MLBTR ranked Iglesias as our #32 free agent and the #5 reliever in the class in predicting a two-year, $26MM contract. He did not command the second year for what would have been his age-37 campaign. The Braves were apparently one of at least two teams that offered a sizable one-year deal. Francys Romero reports that the Dodgers also made an offer around $16MM but Iglesias declined to remain in Atlanta. L.A. and the Blue Jays were the only other teams publicly linked to Iglesias in what turned out to be a brief stay on the open market.

Toronto and Los Angeles are two of a number of teams that remain in the market for a late-inning reliever. Edwin Díaz is almost certainly going to command the largest contract in the class despite rejecting a qualifying offer from the Mets. Devin Williams has gotten a lot of attention in the first few weeks of the offseason. Robert Suarez should command a multi-year deal at a hefty salary. Ryan Helsley, Kyle Finnegan, Emilio Pagán and Kenley Jansen are among the many other unsigned closers.

Iglesias returns at the back of an Atlanta bullpen that still needs a lot of work. They’re getting Joe Jiménez back after he missed the entire ’25 season recovering from knee surgery. Dylan Lee is a high-end option from the left side. Atlanta dropped right-handed setup arms Pierce Johnson and Tyler Kinley at the beginning of the winter, so another righty alongside Jiménez in the late innings is a must. They’ll balance that against the yet to be addressed starting pitching and shortstop holes.

The Braves now have 13 players on guaranteed contracts that’ll combine for $192.5MM next season. They’re operating with a very light arbitration class that features a number of non-tender candidates. That group is unlikely to add more than $4-8MM to the books. The Braves opened last season with a player payroll around $208MM. They’d likely need to go beyond that mark to address the rotation and shortstop, especially if they fill the latter position by re-signing Ha-Seong Kim. RosterResource projects them for roughly $208MM in luxury tax commitments, putting them well shy of the $244MM base threshold. The Braves are believed to have stayed below the CBT line this year but had paid the tax in 2023 and ’24.

Image courtesy of Dale Zanine, Imagn Images.

Mariners Remain Interested In Jorge Polanco After Naylor Deal

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The Mariners have made the biggest move of free agency to date, re-signing Josh Naylor to a five-year deal. The $92.5MM commitment was handily their biggest to a free agent hitter in the decade that Jerry Dipoto has run baseball operations. Seattle’s goal of retaining as much of their 2025 roster as possible continues, as Dipoto told reporters at the press conference announcing the Naylor deal that the team is still interested in re-signing Jorge Polanco.

“Polo’ is a great guy, and we have been in touch with him and his (agency),” Dipoto said (link via Adam Jude of The Seattle Times). “I don’t imagine that it’s going to move as fast as it moved with Josh.” Seattle also hasn’t closed the door on bringing Eugenio Suárez, Jude writes, but it appears Polanco is more of a primary focus.

Seattle brought the switch-hitting Polanco back on a $6MM deal last winter. They were rewarded for their faith that his down 2024 season was due to playing through a meniscus injury in his left knee. Polanco popped 26 homers with a .265/.326/.495 batting line over 524 plate appearances. He spent most of his time at designated hitter to keep him healthy but got more regular run at second base in September and into the postseason.

Polanco is going to command a much stronger contract this time around. He’s a lock for at least two years. MLBTR predicted a three-year, $42MM contract covering his age 32-34 seasons. That price point would have been the M’s largest deal for a free agent hitter under Dipoto until the Naylor signing. It seems there’s still room in the budget for a mid-tier free agent deal of that ilk even with Naylor on the books for $16.5MM next season ($10MM salary plus a $6.5MM signing bonus).

Ryan Bliss, Cole Young and Leo Rivas are the second base options for the time being. Top infield prospect Colt Emerson is looming after hitting .285/.383/.458 between the top three minor league levels as a 19-year-old. Emerson seems likelier to break in at third base, where light-hitting Ben Williamson projects as the starter. That could change if the Mariners are unable to re-sign Polanco and wind up focusing on Suárez instead.

Joe Jiménez Recently Underwent “Cleanup” Knee Procedure

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Braves reliever Joe Jiménez underwent a “cleanup” surgery on his left knee, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos told reporters (including David O’Brien of The Athletic). The right-hander missed the entire ’25 season after undergoing surgery to repair cartilage damage in that same knee last November.

While the framing of the surgery as a “cleanup” doesn’t sound especially alarming, the timeline isn’t clear. Anthopoulos said the team won’t know how long he’ll miss until late December at the earliest. That raises some question about his availability for the start of the season, which would be a tough blow for a bullpen that is already lacking right-handed setup options.

Atlanta acquired Jiménez from the Tigers going into the 2023 season. He turned in a 3.04 ERA and re-signed on a three-year, $26MM free agent deal. The first season was a success, as the 6’3″ hurler fired 68 2/3 frames of 2.62 ERA ball. Jiménez wasn’t able to build off that two-year run last season and evidently didn’t recover as smoothly as hoped from last fall’s procedure.

The Braves re-signed Raisel Iglesias to a $16MM deal this evening. He’ll be back in the ninth inning. Jiménez projects as their top right-handed setup man if healthy. Atlanta declined options on Tyler Kinley and Pierce Johnson to keep as much financial breathing room as possible with needs in the rotation and at shortstop. They brought in a potential stopgap at the latter position with tonight’s acquisition of Mauricio Dubón from Houston. They remain in the market for a better shortstop and still need at least one starter. Uncertainty with Jiménez only magnifies their need for a righty leverage piece in front of Daysbel Hernández.

Yankees, Jonathan Ornelas Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Yankees are in agreement with infielder Jonathan Ornelas on a minor league contract, as first reflected on the MLB.com transaction tracker. According to Francys Romero, he’ll get a non-roster invitation to MLB Spring Training and could opt out midway through the season if he’s not on the 40-man roster.

Ornelas divided this past season between the Rangers and Braves. He spent most of the year in Triple-A, where he limped to a .196/.295/.303 batting line in nearly 400 plate appearances. Ornelas combined for six big league appearances and has gotten into 32 MLB contests over the past three seasons. He’s a .208 hitter with a .263 on-base percentage and no home runs in that limited body of work.

A former third-round draft choice, Ornelas hasn’t been much of a hitter in the minor leagues either. He owns a .233/.331/.331 slash over parts of three Triple-A seasons. The Yankees are signing him for his glove and defensive versatility. Ornelas has logged more than 3500 minor league innings at shortstop. He has ample second and third base experience and has gotten some work in center and left field.

Anthony Volpe is likely to begin the season on the injured list as he works back from shoulder surgery. José Caballero will enter the year as the starting shortstop barring an offseason acquisition. Braden Shewmake, Jorbit Vivas and Oswaldo Cabrera are their current backup infielders. Shewmake is the only natural shortstop of the group, and he’s coming off a .244/.318/.362 showing in Triple-A. They’ll probably add at least one more established depth infielder, but it’s a decent landing spot for Ornelas as he tries to battle for an Opening Day job.

Rays, White Sox Complete Four-Player Trade

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The Rays and White Sox announced a four-player trade sending middle reliever Steven Wilson and swingman Yoendrys Gómez to Tampa Bay for outfielder Everson Pereira and minor league infielder Tanner Murray.

Wilson is the most established of the group. The 31-year-old righty landed in Chicago as part of the Dylan Cease trade during the 2023-24 offseason. Wilson had posted a 3.48 ERA over his first two MLB seasons with the Padres. His numbers tanked during his first year with the Sox, leading them to run him through waivers last winter. Wilson pitched his way back to the big leagues by the middle of April and turned in a quietly solid year.

Over a career-high 55 1/3 innings, Wilson pitched to a 3.42 earned run average. He punched out 21.1% of opposing hitters against a personal-low 9.1% walk rate. Wilson leans heavily on his slider and sits in the 93-94 MPH range with his fastball. He came up just shy of four years of service and is under arbitration control for the next three seasons. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $1.5MM salary. Wilson has a full slate of options, so the Rays could send him between Tampa Bay and Triple-A Durham for the foreseeable future.

Gómez, 26, got a late-season look in the Sox’s rotation. He started nine of 12 appearances overall and turned in a 4.84 ERA through 48 1/3 innings. A former Yankees prospect, Gómez has bounced around the league on waivers. He’s out of options, which spurred the roster shuffling. Gómez sits in the 93-94 MPH range and has a deep arsenal but has never had pristine control. He’ll compete for a rotation or long relief role and will either need to break camp or again be designated for assignment.

The Sox swap Gómez for one of his former teammates coming through the Yankees’ system. Pereira, a righty-hitting outfielder, was once a notable international signee and solid prospect. The 24-year-old native of Venezuela has a career .271/.362/.519 batting line over three Triple-A seasons. Pereira’s solid power-speed combination has been undercut by strikeout concerns, though. He punched out at a 29% clip in the minors this year and struck out 28 more times in 73 big league plate appearances after the Rays acquired him from the Yankees at the deadline for José Caballero.

Pereira is also out of options. He’ll need to crack Chicago’s Opening Day roster or be designated for assignment. The Sox parting with a useful middle reliever for him suggests they’re likely to carry him in the big leagues. Pereira would slot behind Luis Robert Jr., Mike Tauchman and Andrew Benintendi as a fourth outfielder if the Sox keep all three of those players over the winter.

Murray, a 26-year-old non-roster utility player, rounds out the return. A fourth-round pick in 2020, Murray has gone unselected in the Rule 5 draft a few times. He’ll be eligible again this offseason unless the White Sox put him on the 40-man roster. He hit 18 homers but struck out at a 24.1% clip this past season with Tampa Bay’s Triple-A affiliate. He hit a below-average .241/.299/.400 across 572 plate appearances overall. The Sox figure to have him open the year with their top farm team in Charlotte.

Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase first reported that Gómez was being traded to Tampa Bay in a deal sending Pereira to Chicago. James Fegan of Sox Machine had the two-for-two swap. Respective images courtesy of Gary Vasquez and Kim Klement, Imagn Images.

Dodgers Select Ronan Kopp

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The Dodgers selected the contract of left-handed pitcher Ronan Kopp. That’s their only move for Tuesday’s Rule 5 protection deadline. L.A. had two openings on the 40-man roster and didn’t need to make a corresponding move.

Kopp, 23, is a reliever who divided the 2025 season between Double-A Tulsa and Triple-A Oklahoma City. He turned in a combined 3.43 earned run average across 57 2/3 innings. Kopp fanned a massive 36% of opposing hitters but walked almost 17% of the opponents he faced. He has a mid-90s fastball and a cutter-slider that he used almost equally in Triple-A.

It’s plus stuff with obvious command woes from the left side. Neither left nor right-handed hitters could do much damage against Kopp, but they each reached base around a .350 clip by waiting out the free passes. While he’ll need to dial in the command, the Dodgers obviously feel he’s talented enough to factor in as bullpen depth in 2026. He joins Alex Vesia, Tanner Scott, Justin Wrobleski, Jack Dreyer and Anthony Banda as lefty relievers on the 40-man roster.

Cubs Select James Triantos, Pedro Ramírez, Riley Martin

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The Cubs announced that they have selected infielders James Triantos and Pedro Ramírez as well as left-hander Riley Martin. Those three are now protected from being selected in next month’s Rule 5 draft. The club’s 40-man roster count is now at 32.

Triantos, a second-rounder out of high school in 2021, has been one of the more promising pure hitters in the system for the past few seasons. His stock is down after a poor season with Triple-A Iowa. Triantos only managed a .259/.315/.370 slash over 480 trips to the plate. He continued to put the ball in play at a high rate but without much authoritative contact. He hit seven homers and posted well below-average exit velocities. Triantos stole 31 bases while bouncing between second base and the outfield, so perhaps he can factor in as a utility piece in 2026.

Ramírez, a 21-year-old infielder out of Venezuela, is now the superior prospect in the eyes of Baseball America. He’s the only member of this trio to crack Chicago’s top 10 prospects on their recent update of the system. He’s a switch-hitting second/third baseman who batted .280/.346/.386 while stealing 28 bags in 563 plate appearances at Double-A Tennessee this year. Ramírez is also light on power but has excellent contact skills. He’ll probably get the bump to Iowa to begin 2026.

Martin is an Illinois native who was a sixth-rounder in 2021 out of Division II Quincy University. The 6’1″ southpaw has spent the past two seasons pitching out of the bullpen in Triple-A. He fired 63 2/3 innings of 2.69 ERA ball with a near-31% strikeout rate over 47 appearances. Martin struggles with walks and dished out free passes at a 13.4% clip. He works with a 94 MPH fastball and uses a mid-80s curveball as his favored secondary pitch.

Twins Acquire Eric Orze From Rays

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The Twins announced they’ve acquired reliever Eric Orze from the Rays for minor league pitcher Jacob Kisting. Minnesota takes a flier on the 28-year-old righty as they overhaul a bullpen that they decimated at the trade deadline.

Tampa Bay acquired Orze from the Mets last winter in the trade that sent center fielder Jose Siri to New York. They used him as an up-and-down middle innings arm. The former fifth-round pick tossed 41 2/3 innings of 3.02 ERA ball across 33 appearances. His 22.5% strikeout percentage and 10.7% walk rate weren’t as impressive, but he missed bats on a strong 13.2% of his offerings overall.

Orze has a three-pitch mix led by a mid-80s splitter. He sits in the 93-94 MPH range on his fastball and mixes in a slider as his breaking pitch. The University of New Orleans product has an ERA just under 4.00 in parts of five Triple-A seasons and still has an option year remaining. He won’t reach arbitration for three seasons in all likelihood and should have plenty of opportunity to stake a claim to a significant role in Derek Shelton’s bullpen.

Kisting, a 6’5″ right-hander, was a 14th-round pick out of Bradley University in 2024. He has worked mostly as a reliever in the low minors. The 22-year-old struck out more than a quarter of opposing hitters against a solid 7.7% walk rate, albeit as a college arm against generally younger competition. He won’t be eligible for the Rule 5 draft for two seasons.

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