8 Potential Closers For 2011
Those in keeper fantasy baseball leagues are already trying to figure out which current setup men might be given closing jobs in 2011. RotoAuthority has you covered with eight potential closers for next year.
Odds & Ends: Draft Signings, K-Rod
Links for Wednesday, as newly acquired catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia joins the Red Sox…
- The Rays signed ninth-round draft pick Jake DePew for $460K, reported Norm Sanders of the Belleville News-Democrat yesterday. DePew, a catcher, was drafted out of Granite City High School.
- The Yankees inked 12th-rounder Daniel Burawa for $300K, reports Aaron Fitt of Baseball America. The righty came out of St. John's as a draft-eligible sophomore.
- A healthy, somewhat effective 2011 season by Mets closer Francisco Rodriguez could trigger a $17.5MM option for 2012, explains Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
- SI's Tim Marchman outlines the limitations of advanced defensive stats.
Adam Dunn Stays Put
An unknown team claimed Nationals slugger Adam Dunn off waivers on Thursday, reported Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. The teams had 48.5 business-day hours to work out a deal, so the window closed around Monday afternoon. Dunn will remain with the Nationals through the end of the season.
The Nationals may still attempt to sign Dunn to an extension. Failing that, they can at least offer arbitration. With a 76.000 rating, Dunn remains a Type A free agent in our latest Elias rankings projections. The highest Type B in the NL 1B/OF group is Shane Victorino at 72.791. There's a pretty good chance the Nationals offer Dunn arbitration even if they think he might accept, as getting him back on a one-year deal worth $15MM or so wouldn't be that bad.
Two years ago today, Reds GM Walt Jocketty traded Dunn to the Diamondbacks for Dallas Buck, Wilkin Castillo, and Micah Owings. Castillo and Owings were named later. Josh Byrnes was behind the deal from Arizona's side. At the time of the deal Dunn sported a .233/.373/.528 line with 32 home runs, good for a .383 wOBA. This year he's hitting .272/.359/.573 with 30 home runs and a .393 wOBA. Dunn was a Type A free agent after that season too (81.250 rating) but Byrnes chose not to offer arbitration. Byrnes explained that decision in a March 2009 interview with MLBTR.
Nationals Interested In Carl Crawford
The Nationals have "strong organizational interest" in Carl Crawford, reports MASN's Ben Goessling. The Rays' left fielder will be eligible for free agency as a 29-year-old this offseason.
Goessling's blog post speculates on the look of the Nationals' outfield next year. They seem to have Josh Willingham locked in as the left fielder, and Goessling says there's some sentiment to trying Roger Bernadina as the regular center fielder and using Nyjer Morgan in a utility role. Michael Morse also merits consideration – he's raked in 126 plate appearances this year.
Crawford has never played right field in his career, though Willingham played a decent amount last year and could theoretically shift over. Crawford also hasn't dabbled much in center field since 2004, and it's hard to picture him changing positions now that he gets to pick his next team.
It being August and all, the market for Crawford has yet to take shape. Last week MLBTR's Ben Nicholson-Smith named more than a dozen clubs that could pursue the speedy left fielder, including the Nationals.
The Athletics’ 2011 Offense
The Athletics' pitching staff is second in the AL with a 3.65 ERA, but their offense ranks 11th with 4.08 runs scored per game. It's time to find some bats!
A's assistant GM David Forst told ESPN's Jayson Stark on July 29th the team is considering "bringing back the same 25 guys next year." That approach doesn't make sense regarding the offense. Let's go around the diamond.
Kurt Suzuki is locked up through at least 2013. He hits pretty well for a catcher. If lineup changes are made, they'll happen elsewhere.
Daric Barton has been the regular first baseman, and he leads the American League with 68 walks. His job appears safe, though he does not provide traditional first base power. Forst told Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle last week that Barton "really established himself at first base," one reason top prospect Chris Carter has been playing left field recently.
The A's retained second baseman Mark Ellis and center fielder Coco Crisp at the trade deadline. Both players have club options for 2011 – $5.5MM net for Ellis, $5.25MM for Crisp. Both are defensively-talented players with extensive injury histories. They generally lack power, though Crisp is flashing some pop in a limited sample this year.
Ellis figures to be paired up with shortstop Cliff Pennington again next year. Pennington is not playing badly, and it's not as if shortstops are in abundance. Still, bring him back and you've locked up yet another lineup spot with a slugging percentage of .400 or less.
Non-tendering third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff must be considered. Can the A's really give him a raise on this year's $3.1MM salary despite a .266/.299/.400 batting line? It'd be tough to pursue free agent Adrian Beltre again now that he'll be coming off a great season, but there has to be a way to get offensive production at third base. Perhaps the Cubs and Diamondbacks will entertain offers on Aramis Ramirez and Mark Reynolds this winter.
Jack Cust has been a bright spot at designated hitter. It'd be wise to bring him back for around $3MM again, though the A's have jerked him around a bit the last few years. It shouldn't be that difficult to find a free agent DH type who can slug .450 or better.
The A's have tons of outfield corner options, most of them lacking pop aside from Carter. Will the A's go with Ryan Sweeney and Rajai Davis again, given the lack of power from other lineup spots? The A's were surprise suitors for Matt Holliday a couple of years ago. If they don't want to pursue big names this winter maybe they can get creative and put together a Cody Ross–Jim Edmonds platoon or something of that nature. The A's haven't put together a lineup with multiple 20 home run bats since 2007. Even a middling offense might put them in the playoffs in 2011.
Left-Handed Relief Options For Phillies
The Phillies have acknowledged their need for a reliable left-handed reliever. We mentioned the recently recalled Antonio Bastardo and free agent Scott Eyre yesterday, but who else is out there?
If we exclude the Rockies as sellers, six potential left-handed relief trade candidates jump out: Mark Hendrickson (Orioles), Pedro Feliciano (Mets), Doug Slaten (Nationals), Brian Tallet (Blue Jays), Brian Fuentes (Angels), and Mike Gonzalez (Orioles). Gonzalez has been injured much of the season so we won't look at his numbers. The samples are otherwise tiny for the other five southpaws, but all have pitched well against lefties in 2010 (xFIPs below 4.00).
Tallet, Fuentes, and Gonzalez are well-paid and likely to clear waivers. That might make trading them easier, if their clubs are willing to assume significant salary. Feliciano can probably be ruled out for two reasons: the Mets will be reluctant to help the Phillies, and as a Type B free agent he brings the possibility of draft pick compensation after the season. Hendrickson and Slaten are the best fits – they're cheap and controllable for next year. However, Hendrickson could be claimed by an American League team and Slaten would have to make it past the Dodgers, among others.
The Nationals’ 2011 Rotation
The Nationals currently rank 13th in the NL with a 4.41 rotation ERA. They've given starts to a dozen different pitchers, but let's try to figure out next year's top rotation candidates.
We know 22-year-old phenom Stephen Strasburg will head up the rotation next year, and baseball fans everywhere have to hope his shoulder inflammation is a non-issue. Though he's only made four starts this year due to minor elbow surgery, veteran Jason Marquis also probably has a spot locked up given his $7.5MM salary.
24-year-old righty Jordan Zimmermann is being handled carefully as he returns from Tommy John surgery; he has dominant numbers across eight minor league rehab starts this year and should be back next month. He's in.
Yunesky Maya is an intriguing wild card. The 28-year-old Cuban recently signed a four-year, $8MM deal, and last month GM Mike Rizzo suggested to MLB.com's Bill Ladson Maya is not far from a big league rotation.
Opening Day starter John Lannan has dealt with an elbow issue and was optioned to Double A in June. He stayed there for about a month. Lannan should be arbitration-eligible after the season and could earn a couple million bucks if tendered a contract.
Livan Hernandez, Scott Olsen, and Chien-Ming Wang are possibilities for 2011. Hernandez made it known he wants to re-sign. Olsen could be non-tendered again as the Nationals try to maintain their flexibility in December. He's done solid work but has dealt with a shoulder injury for much of the season. Wang is another non-tender candidate – he still has no timetable in his recovery from shoulder surgery. The Nationals have gotten nothing from this $2MM investment; will they pull the plug?
At least four more pitchers will be in the mix for 2011: Craig Stammen, Luis Atilano, J.D. Martin, and Ross Detwiler. Atilano, Martin, and Detwiler have dealt with serious injuries this year. Stammen was recently sent to the bullpen, though he's pitched much better than his 5.05 ERA.
Despite all these options, we know Rizzo wants more. Back in June, he told the Washington Post's Adam Kilgore, "our biggest need is starting pitching." Rizzo seemingly flirted with the idea of acquiring Edwin Jackson from the Diamondbacks or White Sox at the trade deadline. It's reasonable to expect the Nationals to be active in the free agent and trade markets. One more front-rotation pitcher complementing Strasburg and Zimmermann would go a long way. On paper, the Nats could have one of the better rotations in the league entering next season.
Elias Rankings Update
After the season the Elias Sports Bureau will take all players over the 2009-10 period, divide them into five groups for each league, and rank them based on various statistics. Then each player will be labeled a Type A, B, or none. Those designations and the possible accompanying arbitration offers determine draft pick compensation (click here for a refresher).
Eddie Bajek has reverse-engineered the Elias rankings, and he's providing that information exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors. Here's a look at how the players rank for the period beginning with the 2009 season running through August 9th, 2010. The Google spreadsheet below has separate tabs for each position group. You can also go directly to the Google spreadsheet here. Our last set of Elias projections is here, in case you want to see what changed.
Dodgers Interested In Jose Guillen
3:23pm: The Dodgers' interest in Guillen is "thin," according to Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times (on Twitter).
1:32pm: The Dodgers have "strong interest" in Jose Guillen for a part-time role, tweets ESPN's Enrique Rojas. He adds that the Dodgers might wait for Guillen to be released, as the DH/outfielder was designated for assignment by the Royals five days ago. The Giants are the only other team known to have some measure of interest in Guillen.
The Dodgers are 5.5 games out of the wild card, but it is surprising to see them showing interest in another outfield type. The current group includes Scott Podsednik, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Reed Johnson, and Jay Gibbons. Manny Ramirez is on the DL with a calf injury.
Guillen, 34, is hitting .255/.314/.429 with 16 home runs in 437 plate appearances this season. The Royals are expected to assume most of his remaining pay one way or another.
The Tigers’ Offseason
Tigers owner Mike Ilitch appears willing to spend some money this offseason to return his team to prominence. Let's take a look at the team's commitments and needs.
The Tigers would have a payroll in the $65MM range if they filled all their needs internally. This club could easily add $50MM worth of 2011 salaries to the payroll during the offseason.
At catcher, Gerald Laird and Alex Avila have split time this year. Avila could take on a larger role in Laird's absence. In that case GM Dave Dombrowski could just bring in a veteran backup. If Dombrowski changes his mind, Victor Martinez is the big name on the free agent market.
Aside from Miguel Cabrera at first base, the Tigers' infield picture is uncertain. Carlos Guillen and Ramon Santiago are signed, while Scott Sizemore, Will Rhymes, and Don Kelly may play roles. The free agent market offers plenty of middling veterans, but the one big name will be third baseman Adrian Beltre.
Outfield holdovers will include Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Ryan Raburn, and Kelly. If Magglio Ordonez and Johnny Damon depart, the Tigers could be in the outfield market. Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth are the premium choices.
The rotation needs work, with question marks after Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. Maybe the Tigers will join the Cliff Lee bidding, but otherwise secondary hurlers like Jorge de la Rosa, Hiroki Kuroda, Ted Lilly, Carl Pavano, and Javier Vazquez might help. The problem is that not all of those guys translate well to the American League. The Tigers' bullpen might only require tinkering.
The Tigers have a ton of money to spend this winter, but their needs are abundant too. Dombrowski will need to break his recent pattern of avoiding multiyear free agent deals if he's to bring in any top free agents. Of course, he does have a penchant for big trades.