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Tejada Could Still Be Dealt By April

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We thought the Miguel Tejada rumors had died down.  He seemed fairly content, and said all the right things.  However, Daily Herald columnist Barry Rozner has reignited the Miggy hot stove talk.

In Washington DC to cover the White Sox ceremony, Rozner ran into all sorts of DC media types.  According to Rozner:

"They’re hearing the Orioles would love to move the unhappy Tejada out of Baltimore before the season even begins."

He adds that he expects Tejada to be moved before the season starts or right before the July trading deadline.  As a refresher, MLBTradeRumors has reported that the Red Sox, Cubs, White Sox, and Astros have all been involved in talks for Tejada this offseason.

New Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez can still be cut by March 15th, in which case Boston would owe him $500,000.  The Cubs seem quite likely to give Ronny Cedeno his shot, though he’d probably be part of any package for Tejada.

The White Sox have previously offered Juan Uribe, Jose Contreras, and a prospect for Tejada, but the clubs could not agree on the last prospect.  Recent word is that the team plans to wait until after the World Baseball Classic before trading Contreras.  Houston has some top-notch pitching prospects in the fold, so look for them to re-enter the fray once the Clemens saga is resolved.   

Cubs Sign Carlos Zambrano

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According to Bruce Levine of ESPN Radio 1000, the Cubs have agreed to a one-year, $6.5MM contract with starter Carlos Zambrano.  With the signing, the Cubs are done with their arbitration-eligible players.

Zambrano enters his age 25 season with a 3.26 career ERA and 1.27 WHIP.  He has steadily improved his baserunners per inning, from 1.45 in his rookie season to 1.15 last year.  While he’s already one of the best 15 pitchers in baseball, Zambrano could enter the truly elite if he’s able to further trim his walk rate.

Baseball Prospectus projects Zambrano to be worth $15,275,000 in 2006 and at least a $10MM pitcher annually through the end of the decade.

What’s Derrek Lee Worth?

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Baseball Prospectus has a cool new stat called MORP.  I know what you’re thinking – "What the hell is MORP?  It sounds made up."  Well, bear with me because it’s interesting stuff and it may be at least one point of data considered by Jim Hendry when drawing up Derrek Lee’s next contract.

MORP stands for Market Value Over Replacement Player, and it’s an attempt to place a dollar value on a player’s total offensive and defensive production.  Today I think it’d be cool to look at the projections for Derrek Lee for the next several years and try to determine a fair amount for his contract extension.

First, let’s start off by looking at Lee’s 2005.  He hit .335/.418/.662 in 691 plate appearances, perhaps the best offensive performance in baseball.  He also played plus defense at first base.  The sum total of his efforts was 10.6 wins.  That’s right – Lee was worth more than ten wins for the Cubs all by himself.

No one expects Lee to sustain that level of production as he enters his 30s.  But Jim Hendry and Co. are going to need to project Lee’s production and place a dollar value on it for his contract offer.  Now, Paul Konerko is a similarly aged first baseman, and he just received a five-year contract for $60MM.

Let’s look at a five-year deal for the first scenario.  Over the next five seasons, Lee is projected to be worth 27 wins (combining offense and defense).  If you factor in inflation and assign the proper value to each win he earns, Lee will be worth about $45MM over the next five seasons.  We all know that Lee and his agent wouldn’t dream of accepting a contract averaging $9MM coming off the season he had.  He’ll want Konerko money and then some, perhaps $65-75MM.  That would put the Cubs out at least $20MM, so let’s get creative.

What about offering a three-year extension? Lee is projected to be worth $36,575,000 over the next three seasons.  Significant decline shouldn’t set in until his age 33 season three years from now.  How about an offer of $42MM for 2006-2008?  The deal would replace his $8MM salary for 2006.  Lee would average a healthy $14MM annually, and the Cubs would finish up before major decline sets in.  Perhaps it’d be necessary to offer no-trade protection to seal the deal.

It’s expected that after the 2008 season, the 33 year-old Lee would start to slip measurably on both offense and defense.  On the face of it, he’d still look like a .290-30-100 hitter and could command a massive free agent contract elsewhere.  All of these projections and speculation come with the usual disclaimer: obviously no one has a crystal ball and Baseball Prospectus could be dead wrong on this stuff.  No one can project five years into the future.  But the three-year, $42MM proposal here seems like the ideal course of action for Cubs management. 

Cubs Still Interested In Soriano?

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Interesting column from Dave Van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune yesterday.  The gist: a decent spring by Sammy Sosa for the Nationals could make Alfonso Soriano or Jose Vidro more expendable.

Van Dyck’s column assumes that the Nationals actually were counting on Soriano to fill an outfield spot, and that Sosa could take that spot instead.  My take: Soriano is seriously not moving to the outfield.  He’s said it over and over and my sources said the same before that.  The column also assumes a healthy Jose Vidro.  Despite some positive reports, I’m nowhere near convinced of that.  I don’t think the outfield situation affects the second base situation for the Nats.  The only variable is Vidro’s health.  If he’s in great shape this spring, they have a surplus.

Both Soriano and Vidro’s contracts are terribly bloated.  Can Soriano possibly provide $11MM worth of value in 2006?  Highly unlikely.  He’s been less than a four win player each season since joining Texas.  According to Baseball Prospectus’s Marginal Value Above Replacement Player,  Soriano will be worth around $7MM in this season.

The same system has Vidro worth about $3.5MM in ’06 and $2.5MM in ’07.  Given that he’s owed $16MM over the next two seasons, Jim Bowden would have to kick in some major cash for it to make sense for Chicago.

The Cubs’ apparent infatuation with various overpaid second basemen doesn’t gel with the supposed new organizational philosophy.  I thought the Cubs were shifting towards OBP and defense, two attributes not found in Soriano’s repertoire.  The Cubs would be well served to put their efforts towards Julio Lugo, who is available and was a seven win shortstop in 2005.  Even the most optimistic projection of Ronny Cedeno doesn’t call for that kind of production, and three or four extra wins could make all the difference.

The Mets seem content with their internal options for second base, so the Cubs probably are the only team interested in Soriano at this point. 

Carlos Lee Trade Possibilities

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There are all sorts of reasons to expect Carlos Lee to get traded sometime between now and the July deadline.

1.  He’s an impending free agent making $8.5MM.

2.  Doug Melvin is a savvy GM, and knows when to sell high (see Dan Kolb).

3.  The Brewers have an able replacement left fielder in Corey Hart, who is projected by PECOTA to hit .272/.337/.475 in 2006.  Lee is projected by the same system to hit .282/.347/.506.  Accepting that difference in production would allow Melvin to net a top prospect or two.

4.  Lee may be overrated in some circles because of his 114 RBIs.  According to VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), Lee was worse offensively in 2005 than guys like Emil Brown and Raul Ibanez.

The Brewers will have plenty of trade partners for Lee.  Phil Rogers mentions both the White Sox and Cubs by name.  Here’s my own analysis of the possibilities.

Red Sox – If the Sox end up trading Manny for young players, Lee could fill the power void with 35 HR.

Blue Jays – Ricciardi dealt amicably with Melvin for Lyle Overbay, and the Jays don’t have much going on in LF.  If they’re hovering near contention in July it makes a ton of sense.

White Sox – I don’t see it.  They didn’t part on the best of terms, and the Sox have good outfield depth.  I’m for any move that relegates Podsednik to the bench, but I don’t think reacquiring Lee would be the first choice.

Angels – It would involve shuffling outfielders around, but Lee would be a more reasonable addition than Manny.  Maybe the Halos would consider dealing Dallas McPherson for him.

Braves – The Braves have definitely dealt for big-name sluggers in the past as opposed to acquiring them via free agency.  J.D. Drew, Gary Sheffield, and Fred McGriff come to mind.  They have the stacked minor league system to get it done.

Cubs – Both clubs might be contending in the Central division, so it makes a trade less likely.  Back in January, though, Sun-Times writer Greg Couch proposed the Cubs try to entice the Brewers with both Felix Pie and Rich Hill.

Cardinals – They have the need, but the same division thing would have to prevent a trade.

My ranking of the most likely suitors:  Blue Jays, Braves, Angels, Cubs.  I’d like to see your thoughts in the comments.

Odds And Ends: Abreu, Manny

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In very minor news, ESPN is reporting that the Cubs have signed righthanded pitcher Jason Simontacchi to a minor league deal. He was slightly less than terrible for Triple A Memphis last year and saw 15 ugly innings in the Majors.  He’s not young, but did win 11 games for the Cards back in ’02.

Bill Conlin of the Philadelphia Daily News acknowledged the Abreu to the White Sox trade rumor, branding it an "Internet rumor."  Fair enough; I could’ve sworn Howard Eskin started this one though.  Regardless, I think we should start referring to rumors from the Philadelphia Daily News as simply "newspaper rumors."  Why try to identify the source?  Too much work. 

According to Conlin, "officials from both teams deny any such talks."  OK.  But I promise that the White Sox have interest in Abreu.  Whether they have the goods for it, I’m not sure.  While Conlin indicates the White Sox would be settling by adding Gavin Floyd to the deal, my sources and most Phillies fans feel that Floyd as a throw-in is overpayment by the Phils.

If this newspaper rumor about Manny Ramirez is to be believed, the Red Sox have no concept of trading players for equal value.  They might as well have asked for John Lackey and Vlad while they were at it.

Alfonso Soriano Trade Possibilities

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Ken Rosenthal’s latest article mentions that a trade of Alfonso Soriano could happen, but Nationals are more likely to offer Soriano a long-term deal to convince him to become an outfielder.  I don’t doubt Rosenthal, but let’s take a look at some possible suitors for the second baseman.  I’ll assume that a trade signifies no position change.

First off, let’s narrow the field by looking at which teams lack an established 2B.

Blue Jays – Looks like Aaron Hill is the man at second base for 2006, and he’s a fairly solid hitter already.  Plus, Soriano probably isn’t Ricciardi’s type of player.

Mariners – Jose Lopez will get the nod entering this season, and he slugged .505 during a couple of stints at Triple A.  Giving him a full-time shot makes way more sense than trading for Soriano.

Marlins – Obviously the Fish aren’t dealing for Sori.

Mets – The Mets have made all sorts of splashes this winter, and adding a 2B isn’t top priority.  They’d like to cut their losses with Matsui, but Jeff Keppinger and Anderson Hernandez are viable in-house candidates.

Cubs – The Cubs have a three-headed monster at second base, and Soriano probably doesn’t fit into the budget at $12MM+ over several years.  The Cubs have a tradition of free swinging, and I could see Hendry trying this for 2006 if A)The Nationals win their arbitration case and/or eat some salary and B)the price is low.

Cardinals – St. Louis seems content with a battle between Junior Spivey and Aaron Miles for the 2B job.  Plus, Soriano doesn’t seem like the typical St. Louis team player. 

Padres – They’re going to let Mark Bellhorn, Eric Young, and Josh Barfield have a crack at 2B.  Plus, I can’t see how Soriano would fit into the budget.

Of course, the Nationals already had an established 2B when they traded for Soriano, so maybe this isn’t the best guide.  Rosenthal’s suggestion that Soriano will stay put is entirely logical once you break down the potential trade partners.  If a deal was struck, it’d mostly be a salary dump and I think the only teams with mild interest would be the Cubs and Mets.  Just my opinion. 

Recruiting Writers For New Cubs Blog

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Well, the time has come.  This website is bursting at the seams with Cubs fans who need another outlet for their Cub-centric minds.  A place where it’s OK to argue about Matt Murton’s HOF chances.  A place where it’s acceptable to profess your undying love for Joe Kmak.  A website where Cubs fans can congregate before, during, and after every game.  An outlet where the wackiest, most lopsided Cubs trade proposals are tolerated.

AllCubs.com should be live within a couple of weeks.  It’ll be a full-service Cubs blog, with perhaps dozens of established, unique, Cub-savvy authors chiming in on every topic imaginable.  It’ll be a place for Cubs fans to check three times daily and spend even more hours debating Cubs issues when you’re supposed to be working.

The bottom line is that I’m going to recruit writers for this blog for the next couple of weeks.  I’ll probably cap it at a dozen authors.  I can’t pay you for your efforts, as I have no idea if this blog can even bring in a couple of bucks a month.  Here’s what I’m looking for:

– Strong writing background.  Journalism or English majors preferred.  Impeccable grammar and spelling are required.  Blogging experience a plus but not at all required. 

– Ability to make at least three posts per week.

– In-depth Cubs knowledge and commitment.

– Ability to select and cover the hell out of a Cubs-related niche.  For example, maybe you want to be the Ballpark Guy (or gal!), who simply focuses on Wrigley Field itself.  Maybe you’re the contracts, stats, scouting, humorous, or depressing person.  I want to cover this ballclub from every angle, and diverse viewpoints are what will make this blog stand out and attract readers.

– Love for the Cubs is all well and good, but I’m not looking for writers blinded by their Cub obsession.  Optimism is fine, I’m not looking for someone who thinks Ronny Cedeno is the next A-Rod.  Or that Kerry Wood is a lock for 230 innings.  Cubs bias will come with the territory, but you have to have a sense of reality too.

– Current or former employment with the ballclub would be a plus.  Peanut vendors, retired sportswriters, and Shawon Dunston himself could all provide their own unique viewpoints developed during their time spent with the Cubs.

– Writers living close to minor league affiliates (Iowa, for example) could be a great asset to the site.  Somebody’s gotta get the scoop on Kerry Wood’s latest rehab assignment.

– An eagerness to help AllCubs become the best Cubs blog out there.  That might mean chasing down Brian Dopirak for an interview in Daytona, or just telling everyone in your office to check out the site.  I want this thing to be huge, but I need your help.

If what I just described reads like your resume, email me at allcubs@gmail.com and make your case.  I’m guessing we’ll get around 100 applicants, so I’ve created an email address just for this purpose.  Please don’t inquire about it at my regular email address; I won’t reply to those.  That’s all; this should be a lot of fun and I can’t wait to get the site rolling.

Trade Candidates Part 1

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With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future.  Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.

Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him.  But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards.  Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.

We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt.  Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else.  On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.

One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux.  I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline.  I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left.  Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams.  If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.

Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings.  He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30.  I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.

Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons.  It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?

It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what.  Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.

I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal.  Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic.  Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.

Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt.  I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.

More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…

Piazza And Cubs A Match?

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Surprising bit of info out of the Philadelphia Inquirer this morning courtesy of Todd Zolecki.  According to the article:

"The Phillies have talked with free-agent catcher Mike Piazza about a possible contract, a baseball source said, but it seems Piazza might have better options with the San Diego Padres or Chicago Cubs. Piazza could make a decision before the end of the week."

The extent of Jim Hendry’s talks, if any, with Piazza’s agent (Dan Lozano) is unknown currently.  For what it’s worth, Lozano also represents Jacque Jones. 

My thoughts on this: if it was for $4MM or so for a year, the Cubs should bring Piazza aboard and worry about his role later.  Hendry did the same with Todd Walker a couple of years ago because the price was right.  Maybe Piazza spells Derrek Lee at first for ten games, DHs in interleague games, and catches 40 times.  Piazza’s three-year splits don’t really indicate a big platoon advantage, so it would likely just be a matter of working him into the lineup whenever possible.

I’m poking around to try to find some more information and determine whether the Cubs are seriously considering Piazza.

UPDATE:  The Tribune’s Dave van Dyck debunked the Piazza rumor today:

"Cubs general manager Jim Hendry was surprised at the report, admitting he had jokingly said to Piazza’s agent that he could use a pinch-hitter like the future Hall of Famer, but that ’I think he can get a better job than that.’"

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