The Phillies announced that Harrison Bader has declined his end of a $10MM mutual option for 2026. He will now return to free agency, collecting a $3MM buyout on his way back to the open market.
Bader, 32 in June, is coming off a strong season. One of the top outfield defenders in the game, his offense has been inconsistent. 2024 was his third straight season with subpar offense, by measure of wRC+.
He settled for a one-year, $6.25MM deal with the Twins coming into 2025. That broke down as a $750K signing bonus, a $4MM base salary and a $1.5MM buyout on a $10MM mutual option. He could also increase the value of the buyout via plate appearance bonuses. By making 501 appearances this year, he hit all the bonuses and added another $1.5MM to the buyout value.
Those plate appearances were split between the Twins and Phillies, as Minnesota fell out of the playoff race and turned into deadline sellers, flipping Bader to Philadelphia. Bader’s deal also had a $500K assignment bonus for getting traded, so he unlocked that as well.
Overall, he performed well. He hit .277/.347/.449 for a 122 wRC+. Thanks to that offense joining forces with his typically strong baserunning and defense, FanGraphs credited him with 3.2 wins above replacement on the year.
The offense probably isn’t wholly sustainable. He had a .359 batting average on balls in play this year. That’s higher than his .305 career rate and the .291 league average in 2025. Regardless, he may have played himself into a nice multi-year deal this winter. It’s possible that could come with the Phillies but they are reportedly looking to make an outfield shake-up, which figures to include moving on from Nick Castellanos. Whether Bader can fit into the plans might depend on how that shuffle plays out.
Photo courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images
Did he do that while on the IL?
I mean, he’s not worth much more in my opinion (per year) but he likely can get a multi year deal worth north of $10 mil.
Good to know that’s what you mean.
Easiest 3M he’s made. He probably gets a 2/16 to a 3/36 deal from someone else. I don’t think the Phillies go above 2 years and I think they would factor that 3M into the new deal… 2/17 or something along those lines. I think he gets a 3rd year option from someone else tho.
Why would they factor in the buyout when no other team would? It was essentially 2025 salary, something they knew they’d have to pay under the contract when they traded for him.
They can factor it in but the other teams bidding against them won’t. He’ll sign elsewhere
I think it will be factored into their calculus which is why I don’t think he’ll be back. Other team won’t a 10M a year deal is just 10M to them, and in reality a 10M to the Phillies is 13M in 2026. If they have to top some other team that offers him say 2/20 they’re going to be asking themselves is Bader really worth more than 10M a year and the 3M buyout hit to our luxury bill or do we go with a similar maybe not as good if a fielder but similar bat option for less money AVV and maybe only a 1 year deal.
If they don’t go after Tucker or Bellinger… I don’t see them spending more than 10M per season or 13M if you factor in the buyout to Bader to fill one of the OF spots. On top of paying Casty to go away? For a guy that will turn 32 and had probably his best offensive year as a pro?
So ultimately I think they go elsewhere and trade for an OF, they bring up Crawford and split Marsh/Kemp.
Why would it be factored in?
So you are saying if they are looking at 2 Free Agents. OFers.
They think they are equal and one is Bader.
Bader is willing to Sign for $11m
The other is willing to sing for $13m
They would spend $2m more to sign the other player because they had to pay a Buyout to Bader?????
The buyout counts towards the 25 tax, so not sure why they would factor that into the next year contract
Anyone who hands 32 year old Harrison Bader and his .359 BABIP on only 87.2 EV a 3/$36 million contract is smoking crack. This is Bader’s first good season in four years. The defense is still stellar but that offensive output screams regression. His Savant page offensively is a nightmare.
Two years absolute maximum but in reality he should only get a one year deal with an option.
Bader: OPS+
2022 – 85
2023 – 69
2024 – 86
2025 – 117
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100% Agree that expecting if one expects more than a mid 80s OPS+ in 2026 by the 32yr old Bader is not being realistic. Even one in the 70s would not be unexpected….Maybe he found something he can repeat….but its the extreme exception and not the rule that players in their 30s suddently improve outside of a single year blip.
He’s easily worth 1yr – 7m, which is all he needs to make to break even after opting out….Totally agree that logically….but we all know GMs get infatuated with last years stats….and at least one is going to over pay.
Cards need him back
In this year’s free agent market, Tots is easily going to cash in better than any other player.
2/16 or 2/17 seems reasonable, I think 3 years could happen but only if a team gets desperate and has lost out on their top choice. I hope you can stay healthy. He seems like a good fit for the Orioles
That’s quite a low AAV since he turned down 1/10. Kevin Kiermaier got more than that at the same age.
I figure he’ll get $20MM over 2. No less than that.
While I think it’s low….He technically turned down 1/7 since he got $3m for opting out. If he signs a contract for 1 year at $8m, he will have made $1m more than if he had not opted out.
That being said….I certainly think he will make more than 2/16. He had a “career’ year last year, and there is always at least 1 GM who thinks last year’s blip will turn into the new normal…or at least is willing to gamble a few extra mil.
I have doubts he’s going to get much more.
Royals
I’d like to see the Cubs make a run for him. He’d be able to give Happ and PCA days off against LHP as well as play some RF when Suzuki is DHing. (I’m assuming Tucker will not re-sign..)
He would also be a serious upgrade as the “bench RH PH” over Justin Turner. He may not be willing to settle for a 4th OF roll, but the Cubs have to improve their three non-C bench positions over the Jon Berti/Vidal Brujan/Willi Castro nonsense of 2025.
Castro really turned into a pumpkin in Chicago after a couple quality years in Twins Territory. Leaves me some hope he might come back, even with Rocco not being there
His market is, for me, more variable than most. His age and history would indicate a one or possibly two year deal, but last season was an outlier. Combine an incredibly weak CF supply with high demand; add a strong dose of optimism by some GM out there; add a few tequila shots and he will potentially be priced far out of a comfortable range.
I would love to see him back in Philly, but his real value is closer to that of a top 4th OF / platoon guy rather than that which we saw for two months. At a certain point a sane GM will have to punt.
A 2/16 deal would be as high as any sane GM should go. His 2025 is probably more of an outlier.
Might have been the worst at bat that I’ve ever seen against the Dodgers. 10 pitches and not one swing at a strike with a tying run on 2nd.
Let him go. Traditional journeyman.
Mistake on his part. He will not get a multi year contract that’ll pay him more then 10M he shoulda agreed on his mutual option
With the $3 million buyout, he only needs to clear 1-year/$7 million to come out ahead. I would think even the most pessimistic projections have him surpassing that..
He would look great in a Brewers’ uniform. Chourio simply can not play CF and the Brewers can’t afford two dead spots at the end of the order. Blake Perkins needs a rest. Bader has always had great games in Milwaukee.
Come join the Giants. Push Lee to RF. Lee and Ramos both ranked as the worst defensive players at their respective positions this year. Bader would help. And it’s right in Charles Johnson’s price range.
His cup of coffee with the phils actually gave the team a needed dose of caffeine…his presence was a nice change from the too cool to care facade they present. Wish him luck…
Mets can make up for not getting him at deadline & not trying to get him instead of Siri who was a big bust & too much of a hit dog.
If the organization could give a guy like Kingery 24 mil, they can find 24 mil for Bader. Middleton needs to not let the big contacts that will cross his desk blind him regarding the smaller contract at that guts like Bader bring an impact t.
@LB444 – There is certainly a deal that works to bring Bader back, but trying to compare his potential deal to a somewhat long ago prospect upside and control play is faintly ridiculous.
I strongly disliked Klentak but never faulted him for that contract. How they handled Kingery is quite another discussion – player development arrogance was one of Klentak’s crucial flaws.
The concept behind the Kingery signing wasn’t necessarily the flaw. Take a future star, lock him down at a reasonable and fair price for both sides.
The issue was a combination of player evaluation and development approach. Kingery wasn’t the star at the ML level that he appeared to be at the minor league level, and then they started to pinball him around the place. Establish him at one position, lock him in the lineup, and generally work with him – refine his plate approach, refine him in the field.
Come on home to StL.
Play CF against LHP and get starts in the corners on other days. 400/500 ABs.
He seems like the best (realistic) free agent target for Cleveland.
Any team will be concerned around the injury history.. but the “6 teams in 8 years” will not. There is a lot of simple context around that.
Traded from STL to NYY for Jordan Montgomery.
As an impending FA, placed on waivers by NYY after they fell out of contention.. picked up by the Reds, who were still in the playoff picture.
Hit FA and signed a fairly lucrative deal with a contender, NYM. Mets went a lot bigger the next year with Soto, of course.
Hit FA again and signed another one-year deal.. flipped to a contender at the deadline.
6 teams in 8 years and injury prone
Bader is up for a BIGG payday and get this moneyyyy