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Rookie Radar: NL East

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has recently taken a look at some potential impact rookies throughout the AL Central and AL West. Steve Adams handled the NL West. Now let’s move on to the NL East, which was one of the strongest divisions in baseball in 2019, with four teams finishing .500 or above. 2020 figures to be just as competitive. Perhaps a strong rookie season could be a difference-maker for one of these teams. Who could it be? Let’s take a look at some of the contenders.

Braves

The Braves already have a crowded outfield at the big league level. But if any kind of opportunity should present itself, Cristian Pache is going to be waiting in the wings. The 21-year-old has received more praise for his defense and speed than for his offense. But his bat seemed to turn a corner in 2019. Over 433 plate appearances at Double-A, he put up a slash line of .278/.340/.474, good enough for a wRC+ of 134. His Triple-A numbers aren’t as strong, with a line of .274/.337/.411 and a wRC+ of 92. That was over a smaller sample of 105 plate appearances, though, and he was only 20 years old.

Pache could have competition in the form of fellow outfield prospect Drew Waters, who is following a similar trajectory. Waters was also 20 last year and spent the bulk of the season at Double-A, where he managed a lofty 144 wRC+. He also had a cup of coffee at Triple-A, where his wRC+ dropped to 84 at Triple-A. While both Pache and Waters while played 26 games at Triple-A, Waters dwarfed Pache in the strikeout column, 43 to 18.

On the pitching side, the Braves have a pile of young arms who are slated to be in Triple-A to start the year, fighting to be the first one to get the call. The 24-year-old Kyle Wright has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to translate it into success at the big league level yet. It’s a similar story for 22-year-old Bryse Wilson. Ian Anderson is only 21 and isn’t on the 40-man, but he has already been bumped up to Triple-A after dominating in Double-A.

Marlins

The rebuilding Marlins already have lots of promising youngsters on the roster right now, and there are more on the way. Sixto Sanchez hasn’t reached Triple-A yet, but after dominating in Double-A with a 2.53 ERA over 103 innings, it’s possible he won’t need too much time there. Same goes for Edward Cabrera, whose Double-A ERA was just a smidge higher at 2.56, though in a smaller sample of 38 2/3 innings. Evaluators are split as to which of the two should be ranked higher. If you’re the Marlins, that’s a good problem to have.

In terms of position players, the most exciting options are outfielders. Jesus Sanchez has a tremendous bat but lacks plate discipline. Monte Harrison’s defensive skills give him a decent floor. But the bat will need to take another step for him to reach his ceiling. He put up a decent line of  .274/.357/.451 in Triple-A in 2019, good enough for a wRC+ of 97, just below league average.

Mets

The Mets’ rotation took a big hit when it was announced that Noah Syndergaard will undergo Tommy John Surgery. And while they may turn to veterans like Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo to pick up the slack, they could also look to some of the rookies they have in the minors. David Peterson hasn’t reached Triple-A just yet, but he threw 116 Double-A innings in 2019, with an ERA of 4.19 and 9.47 K/9. Franklyn Kilome missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, but he was the Mets’ fifth-best prospect at that point. Stephen Gonsalves was once a highly-touted prospect in the Twins’ system, though an injury-plagued 2019 led to them losing him to the Mets on waivers. He’s still 25 and could be a wild-card factor if he can get healthy and regain his form.

As far as position players go, shortstop Andres Gimenez is an exciting prospect (mostly because of his speed and defense). The 21-year-old swiped 66 bags from 2018-19, so the big question is how he’ll do with the bat. Gimenez spent 2019 at Double-A, slashing a mediocre .250/.309/.387, but he’s still young. And since the Mets have plenty of middle infield options such as Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil and maybe even Jed Lowrie, it will be difficult for Gimenez to contribute as soon as 2020.

Nationals

For the Nats, the most important rookie is definitely Carter Kieboom, one of the best prospects in baseball. The infielder had an excellent 2019 at the Triple-A level, slashing .303/.409/.493 for a wRC+ of 123. The 22-year-old wasn’t able to carry those numbers into his MLB debut last season, but it was only an 11-game sample size.

With Anthony Rendon moving to California, there’s an opening for Kieboom to be the everyday third baseman. He’ll have to earn it because the Nats brought back Asdrubal Cabrera as a fallback option, but they’d surely prefer for the 22-year-old Kieboom to take the job. That would enable the Nats to use Cabrera in a utility role.

Phillies

Alec Bohm’s calling card is his bat. As a 22-year-old in 2019, he played 22 games in A-ball and produced a wRC+  of 196. In A+, he played 40 games with a wRC+ of 165. In 63 games at Double-A, the wRC+ was 146. If he can keep hitting in Triple-A, the question will be where to put him. Bohm mostly plays third, but many evaluators feel that his defense is too weak for the hot corner and suggest a move to first. The Phillies would surely love for Bohm to prove those evaluators wrong because they have Rhys Hoskins entrenched at first. Their current plan for the rest of the infield is to deploy Jean Segura at third, Didi Gregorius at short and Scott Kingery at second. But since Segura can also play shortstop or second, Bohm could nudge his way into the picture if any one of them goes down with an injury.

On the mound, the big name to watch is Spencer Howard. Despite injuries limiting his total output in 2019, he still put up great numbers when healthy. In 30 2/3 innings at Double-A, his ERA was 2.35. And Howard, 23, capped off his season with 21 1/3 innings of 2.11 ERA ball in the Arizona Fall League. The Philly rotation is a bit flimsy, with guys like Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin keeping a tenuous hold on back-end spots, so a healthy Howard could shove his way into the equation.

Rockies Option Four Players To Triple-A

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The Rockies announced on Thursday that they have optioned right-handed pitchers Jose Mujica, Ryan Castellani and Jesus Tinoco, as well as outfielder Yonathan Daza to Triple-A Albuquerque (Twitter link).

The most noteworthy name in the bunch is Mujica, as he was the only free agent signing for the Rockies this past offseason. Mujica had Tommy John surgery in September of 2018 and was cut loose by the Rays shortly thereafter. After missing all of 2019, the Rockies signed him in November. However, it appears the team viewed that signing as more of a long-term investment, given that he doesn’t have a spot in the rotation for the short term. But since he’s still only 23 years old, there’s still time for him to force his way into the picture.

Castellani should also be in the Triple-A rotation, battling Mujica for position on the depth chart. The 24-year-old will be looking to get back on track after a miserable 2019, during which injuries limited him to 43 1/3 innings of 8.31 ERA ball. Castellani did have an encouraging conclusion to his season in the Arizona Fall League, though, as he put up a 2.16 ERA through 16 2/3 innings.

Tinoco logged decent bottom-line production in 2019, with an ERA of 4.75 in 36 innings out of the bullpen. But FIP and xFIP weren’t nearly as impressed, pegging him at 7.91 and 5.84, respectively. He was optioned and recalled three times over the year and seems poised for a similar fate in 2020.

As for Daza, the 26-year-old has put up solid numbers in the minors but didn’t impress during his 105 plate appearances at the big league level in 2019. He slashed .206/.257/.237 for a wRC+ of 19.

Phillies Option Six Players To Triple-A

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The Phillies shuffled six players off of their 26-man roster, according to a team announcement. They are lefties Austin Davis and Cole Irvin, righties Edgar Garcia and Reggie McClain and outfielders Kyle Garlick and Nick Williams

On what was originally scheduled to be Opening Day, the big baseball action of the day has instead been reruns of past games and procedural moves such as this one. None of these moves are particularly surprising.

The four pitchers all saw some time in MLB in 2019. But since they all posted ERAs north of 5.75 in their respective seasons, they will all have to go back down to the minors and wait for their next opportunity.

As for Garlick and Williams, they each had a decent shot of earning a roster spot a couple of weeks ago. But that was because Andrew McCutchen was not going to be ready to rejoin the team until April and therefore open the season on the IL. Now that the start to the season has been delayed until at least May, McCutchen should be able to get healthy in time to reclaim his regular role in left field. And with Bryce Harper, Adam Haseley, Jay Bruce and Roman Quinn also on the roster, that seems to push Garlick and Williams down the depth charts and into the minors.

Latest on Shohei Ohtani, Griffin Canning

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Angels two-way player Shohei Ohtani has progressed in his rehab to throwing off of flat ground, Angels GM Billy Eppler tells reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic (Twitter link). This seems to be in line with the timeline laid out last month, where he was expected to be able to rejoin the rotation by mid-May. Ardaya says that Ohtani could try throwing off a mound again in a couple weeks, which would be early April. And given that mid-May is the earliest the season could start, it’s seeming likely that Ohtani could be ready to go by Opening Day, regardless of when it is.

Griffin Canning, on the other hand, seems to be behind his rotation mate in terms of his rehab timeline. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports on Twitter that Eppler says Canning is still about a week away from throwing. Canning’s timeline after that is less clear. Unlike Ohtani, who is following a fairly well-understood rehab process to come back from Tommy John surgery, Canning is seemingly trying to avoid an extended absence. His initial diagnosis last month did involve “chronic changes” to his ulnar collateral ligament, but no tearing. Shortly after that, he received “biological injections” to treat his elbow. (Fletcher’s tweet refers to PRP, or a platelet-rich plasma injection.) Whether this path back to health will be effective remains to be seen, but next week’s throwing sessions will be the first step in ascertaining as much.

As recently laid out by Connor Byrne of MLBTR, the delayed start to the season could actually be a boon to the Angels precisely because it reduces the amount of time that the team would need to hobble along with a weakened rotation. It’s now possible that the rotation could consist of Ohtani and Canning, along with Andrew Heaney, Julio Teheran and Dylan Bundy. This would potentially bump Patrick Sandoval, Matt Andriese, Jaime Barria and Dillon Peters into the bullpen or depth positions in the minors.

Red Sox Minor Leaguer Tests Positive For Coronavirus

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An unnamed Red Sox minor leaguer has tested positive for COVID-19, the team announced Tuesday. According to the statement:

His positive test occurred on March 23rd following his return home and he was last at the Fenway South Player Development Complex on March 15th.  Given the timing of the player’s positive test and travel, we believe it is more likely that he contracted COVID-19 after he left Fort Myers.  Nevertheless, out of an abundance of caution, the club is shutting down Fenway South from all activity effective today, for at least two weeks.

The statement goes on to say that the facility will now receive a “deep cleaning” and that anyone who came into contact with this player has been instructed to go into self-quarantine for two weeks.

This illustrates the potential dangers of attempting to maintain camps and group workouts during the pandemic. According to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, many Red Sox players, including major leaguers, had still been working out at the facility (Twitter link). Hopefully, the team is correct in its assessment that the player in question contracted the virus after leaving.

This is now the fourth case of a positive test for COVID-19 for someone connected to Major League Baseball, joining a Reds employee and two minor leaguers in the Yankees system. The statement notes that the player in question is “doing well” but does not elaborate because of privacy concerns.

Extension Candidates: AL East

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There’s no baseball in the present, which has many fans turning to the past, as broadcasters are helping us addicts get our fix by filling the air with classic games from days gone by. But what about the future? Which players are logical fits for contract extensions for the days yet to come?

We’ve already checked in on the NL East, NL Central and NL West. Now it’s time to switch over to the Junior Circuit and check in on the AL East.

Blue Jays

The youth movement is in full effect north of the border, as the team currently has no position players on the 40-man roster who have reached their 30th birthday. That means there are extension candidates up and down the line. From the team’s perspective, they would surely love to lock up their young core players of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio, all of whom have less than a year of service time and are therefore at least two years away from arbitration. However, since all three are the sons of retired big leaguers who made millions during their playing days, they might not be as motivated as some other players to sign away years of free agency in exchange for the security of having guaranteed money in the bank.

One promising youngster without a famous lineage is catcher Danny Jansen. The team could have some desire to lock him up if they think he’s their catcher of the future. But does the team still believe that after his lackluster offensive numbers in 2019?

On the pitching side, the most promising young arm is prospect Nate Pearson, who hasn’t even made it onto the roster yet. We’ve seen some recent extensions given to players before their MLB debuts, such as Luis Robert, Evan White and Eloy Jimenez, but none for pitchers just yet. One wild card is Ken Giles. The 29-year-old has been lights out since leaving Houston and is one year away from free agency. But because of injury concerns, perhaps the right deal could give him enough peace of mind to forgo the open market.

Orioles

The Orioles are about as full into rebuild as a team can be. And the path out of the AL East basement seems to be long and arduous. But one way to brighten the light at the end of the tunnel would be to lock in some quality players for the happier days down the road. Unfortunately, there’s not a lot of guys that currently meet that description.

The team had four players produce more than 2.0 fWAR in 2019. Two of them are now on different teams (Dylan Bundy and Jonathan Villar). And another, Trey Mancini, is suddenly in an uncertain position after recently undergoing surgery to remove a malignant tumor from his colon.

That leaves only hurler John Means, who had a fantastic breakout season in 2019. And since he’s about to turn 27 and is two years away from arbitration, he might want to lock up some cash while he can. But from the team perspective, Means might not be worth betting on at this stage. His 2019 ERA of 3.60 was nice, but FIP and xFIP are less bullish, pegging him at 4.41 and 5.48, respectively. It would be prudent for the Orioles to be patient and see if he has the ability to find repeat success.

Rays 

The cash-strapped Rays are big fans of the extension, having signed 11 of them in the decade that just ended. Since they almost never reel in big fish in free agency, Charlie Morton notwithstanding, extensions are the best way for them to get bang for their buck and keep talent on the roster. Just a few weeks ago, they were reportedly discussions extensions with Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows.

As for Glasnow, he finally had his long-awaited breakout in 2019. He just reached arbitration as a Super Two and could conceivably make some decent money with four trips through arbitration. The club would surely prefer to put a cap on his earnings ceiling if they could. And since Glasnow struggled through his first few years in Pittsburgh, he might welcome the security of guaranteed cash to insure himself against those struggles returning. But because of injuries, he only logged 60 2/3 innings last year. He still hasn’t proven he can maintain his abilities over a full season. Until he does, that limits his leverage in negotiations.

As for Meadows, he had a tremendous season in 2019, putting up the kind of classical power numbers that should reward him well in arbitration. As long as he can stay healthy and repeat them. But since arbitration is still two years away, perhaps a compromise could be worked out wherein he gets more money now but sacrifices the top end of his earning power.

In terms of other guys, there are a whole whack of them that the Rays could try to nail down before they start getting paid real money. The list includes Joey Wendle, Willy Adames, Ryan Yarbrough, Manuel Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a big batch of relievers. But of course, with the Rays, there’s always a decent chance they’ll just trade a guy as soon as they get uncomfortable with his cost.

Red Sox

After trading away Mookie Betts and David Price and then losing Chris Sale to Tommy John surgery, it might feel like the Red Sox are a hollowed-out husk. But there’s still a lot of talent on the roster that they should want to keep around. And now that they’ve accomplished their goal of getting under the luxury tax barrier, they should have some room on the payroll to actually do it.

Andrew Benintendi recently signed a two-year deal. But he will still have one arbitration year remaining after that. That means he would hit the free agent market as a 28-year-old, potentially lining himself up for a nice payday, unless the Sox pay him first. Eduardo Rodriguez just had his best season and could also reach free agency at 28. He’s making $8.3MM in 2020 and still has one more pass through arbitration remaining. With Price and Sale gone, and Eovaldi’s injury history, it could make sense to keep Rodriguez around for a few more years for some rotation stability.

Rafael Devers won’t even get into arbitration until after this season. And since he’s only 23, he could bank some cash, give away a few free agent years and still reach the open market before he turns 30. Alex Verdugo is just a bit older but has one more year of team control than Devers. If Boston believed in him enough to make him the centrepiece of their return for giving up a franchise player like Mookie Betts, they must believe he’s capable of helping them down the road.

Yankees

The big-spending Yankees of old seem to have returned, after they blew way past the luxury tax for 2020. But you can never rule out another dump truck of money coming around the corner. They’re the Yankees, after all.

They already struck gold with the first time they signed DJ LeMahieu. He somehow managed to have his best offensive output during a season in which he turned 31, and after leaving the friendly confines of Coors Field. Last month, it didn’t seem like anything was imminent. But that doesn’t mean a deal couldn’t be reached at some point this year to prevent him going on the block. James Paxton is also just one year away from free agency. But given his persistent injuries, would the Yankees bet on him in a big way?

Of course, the 6’7″ elephant in the room is Aaron Judge. The delayed start to the season is giving him a chance to convalesce and approach full health. The slugger will make $8.5MM in 2020 and still has two passes through arbitration remaining before he hits free agency as a 30-year-old. Will the Yankees shell out the big bucks to keep the fan favorite around? Or does his injury history give them pause? Gary Sanchez is in a similar position, but just a few months younger than Judge and with a slightly smaller salary at $5MM.

In the pre-arb department, Gleyber Torres is the shining star. He is sure to reach arbitration after 2020 as a Super Two, meaning he’ll have four chances to get a raise through arbitration unless the Yanks can fork over enough to get him not to. Since he’s on pace to reach the open market at 27, he could give up a few free agent years and still become a free agent at a relatively young age.

Pirates Option Cole Tucker, Six Others

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The Pirates have optioned seven players, the team announced on Twitter. They include relief pitchers Geoff Hartlieb, Sam Howard, Edgar Santana and Yacksel Rios, as well as outfielder Jason Martin and third base prospect Ke’Bryan Hayes. But the most notable name in the bunch is shortstop Cole Tucker. The 23-year-old had been hitting well in spring training before the league-wide shutdown, putting up a slash line of .296/.387./.667, much better than his 2019 big league output of .211/.266/.361.

Tucker was a well-regarded prospect going into 2019, coming in at #83 on the FanGraphs Top 100 Prospects. He went on to have an up-and-down year, getting called up and making his big league debut on April 20 before being optioned and recalled twice more as the season wore on. He ended up getting into 56 games and producing a lackluster 61 wRC+ at the plate , but balancing that out with solid enough defense at short to break even in the WAR department with 0.0, according to FanGraphs. The numbers at Baseball Reference are slightly kinder, pegging him at 64 OPS+ and 0.2 WAR.

The shortstop position in Pittsburgh is currently occupied by Kevin Newman, who put together a very nice season in 2019, with a wRC+ of 110 and 2.4 fWAR. Erik Gonzalez should be slotted into the backup role, although JT Riddle could also play some shortstop in a pinch. It seems the team thinks the best path forward for Tucker is to get regular playing time in AAA and try to force his way into the picture. “We definitely believe in Cole as an every-day player”, said Pirates general manager Ben Cherington, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports on Twitter. “He’s young enough where we think he should be playing every day still. Certainly see him contributing at the major league level really soon.”

Eugenio Suarez To Ramp Up Rehab Next Week

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Amidst all the tragedy and misfortune being caused by COVID-19, one tiny silver lining in the baseball world is that the delayed start to the season gives injured players more time to recuperate. One such player is Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who underwent right shoulder surgery in January.

Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer spoke to Reds manager David Bell about various injured Reds players and how they are handling their rehab programs in isolation. (The team shut down their spring training facility after an employee tested positive for COVID-19, meaning that the players have all gone home, or wherever it is they prefer to train.) When asked about Suarez, Bell had this to say. “Right on track, and by next week he will be resuming all his throwing, fielding and swinging. He’s a guy that we were pretty optimistic that he had a strong chance to be ready for Opening Day. Now, he’ll have a lot more time.”

Just before spring training was suspended on March 12, Suarez was set to DH in a game, with his readiness for Opening Day still in question. Now that the season has been pushed back, he should have ample opportunity to get into shape for when games resume, whenever that may be.

And while it is surely welcome news for the Reds that one of their best players is getting healthy, this could have the side effect of further crowding the battle for playing time and roster spots among some of the less-experienced members of the team. Players such as Nick Senzel, Aristides Aquino, Josh VanMeter, Phil Ervin, Kyle Farmer, Alex Blandino, Travis Jankowski and Scott Schebler could be battling for just four seats on the bench next to backup catcher Curt Casali.

Carter Stewart To Face NPB Hitters In Practice Game

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Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks pitching prospect Carter Stewart will face NPB hitters for the first time on Friday, according to a blog post from reporter Jim Allen. Stewart is scheduled to pitch as the Hawks will face the Chiba Lotte Marines in a practice game. (COVID-19 concerns have delayed the opening day in Japan’s MLB equivalent from March 20 until April 10, at the earliest. But the fact that they are even playing “practice” games is more than can be said about North American baseball.)

Stewart’s story is one that has already been full of surprises. After he wowed the scouts as a high-schooler, he was selected by the Braves eighth overall in the 2018 draft. However, they were unable to come to an agreement on a contract after the team became concerned about his medicals and offered him a deal so far below his slot value that it caused the MLBPA to file a grievance on his behalf. After the Braves won that grievance, Stewart ultimately decided to take the unprecedented step of signing with the Hawks in May of 2019, just days before that year’s draft.

In his post, Allen writes that Stewart only pitched to lower level opponents in 2019, similar to how drafted prospects go on to face minor league competition before working their way up to the majors. So, this will be a noticeable jump in competition for the young hurler. “Obviously, they can hit a little bit better,” Stewart says, “so maybe they’re going to put me in a little bit tougher situations, but obviously, you’ve still got to perform.”

How Stewart’s trajectory plays out from here will be fascinating to watch. His six-year contract comes with a base of $6.2MM but with incentives that can push it into the $11MM-$12MM range. That means there are a wide range of outcomes in terms of his earnings, and the consequences of those earnings could be vast. If the industry perspective is that Stewart made a wise financial decision and earned more than he would have by staying in North America, it might cause other youngsters to follow in his footsteps, or make MLB reconsider how younger players are compensated. That’s a topic which has often come up in relation to the tense relationship between the players and the league. With no games currently scheduled in North America, baseball-hungry fans can at least look overseas for an intriguing story with potentially far-reaching implications.

Giants Sign Prospect Javier Alexander Francisco

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The Giants have signed shortstop Javier Alexander Francisco, a prospect from the Dominican Republic, as @GiantsProspects first reported (Twitter link; hat tip to John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle). The value of the bonus is unknown at this time.

Shea notes that the 16-year-old has been working with former big leaguer Fernando Tatis Sr., who compares Francisco to his son, Padres star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. This comparison seems at least somewhat suspect, given the timing of this agreement. Many well-regarded international prospects have handshake deals worked out in advanced of their eligibility and then sign on the dotted line as soon as the signing period begins each year on July 2. Tatis Jr., for instance, signed with the White Sox on July 2, 2015, receiving a bonus of $700K. If Francisco is indeed at that skill level, he could have theoretically received a larger bonus by waiting another few months until teams would have their bonus pools reset to their full amounts.

Regardless of how Francisco develops personally, this move is consistent with a larger push in the Giants organization to focus on improving their farm system. Since Farhan Zaidi became the president of baseball operations in November of 2018, there has been a greater emphasis on upgrading the talent pipeline that flows into the major league club. Baseball America recently ranked the Giants farm system as the 14th best in the majors, after it checked in at 28th going into the 2019 season.

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