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Phillies To Re-Sign J.T. Realmuto

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The Phillies and J.T. Realmuto have an agreement in place to reunite on a new deal. It’s reportedly a $45MM guarantee over three years for the CAA Sports client, with incentives worth $5MM annually. The Phils have a full 40-man roster and will need a corresponding move to make this official.

At the beginning of the offseason, it seemed likely that Realmuto and the Phils would get back together. That has come to pass but there were some notable twists and turns along the way.

Back in early December, it was reported that the Phils had an offer out to Realmuto. No specifics of that offer were reported but it the two sides were apparently far enough apart to explore other options. Just over a week later, it was reported that the Phils were looking into other potential solutions behind the plate. An even more ambitious pivot came to light in January. With infielder Bo Bichette unsigned, the Phils seemed to genuinely pursue him. Various reports suggested that if the Phils signed Bichette, they would have to move on from Realmuto and third baseman Alec Bohm.

That appears to check out from a financial point of view. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phils thought they were going to sign Bichette for $200MM over seven years, an average annual value of $28.57MM. Realmuto was projected for something around $15MM annually, with MLBTR predicting him for a $30MM deal over two years at the beginning of the offseason. Bohm is going to make $10.2MM in his final season of club control.

Essentially, it seems the Phils were willing to spend another $15MM to $20MM on upgrading the lineup. Signing Bichette and then trading Bohm would have added about that much. But the Mets swooped in and have an agreement in place with Bichette, a three-year deal with huge average annual values and opt-outs after each season. That not only deprived the Phillies of Bichette but also landed him with a division rival. Barely an hour later, the Phils have quickly pivoted to the more straightforward path, bringing back their longtime stalwart behind the plate.

Though it is somewhat straightforward to bring back Realmuto, this is still a notable commitment. Realmuto turns 35 in March and will therefore play this deal through his age-37 season. There’s decline risk with any position player that age but particularly with catchers. Every backstop in the majors in 2025 was in his age-36 season or younger, except for Martín Maldonado, who is now retired. Realmuto was already one of the oldest full-time catchers in the league last year. Salvador Perez is one year older but even he has started to spend more time at first base or as the designated hitter in recent seasons.

Realmuto and Perez have been the two workhorses of the position over the past decade-plus. Dating back to the start of the 2015, Realmuto has appeared in 1362 games and Perez 1304. However, Realmuto actually appeared as a catcher in 1,252 of those contests whereas Perez only put on the gear for 980. That kind of workload can be an argument for or against Realmuto. His ability to shoulder a massive workload relative to his peers is right there in the numbers but that could also be the very thing that works against him as he ages.

The signs of decline are already somewhat apparent. At the plate, Realmuto has clearly fallen from his peak. From 2018 to 2022, when he was in his late 20s and early 30s, he produced a combined .272/.339/.476 batting line. That resulted in a 118 wRC+, indicating he was 18% better than the league average hitter for that span. Over the past three years, he has slashed .257/.315/.421 for a wRC+ of 100. In 2025, he hit .257/.315/.384 for a wRC+ of 94. That’s still pretty good for a catcher, as backstops generally hit about 10% worse than the league-wide average, but the trend lines aren’t great.

There are yellow flags on the defensive side as well. Outlets like FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus and Statcast ranked him as an above-average pitch framer from 2018 to 2022 but with negative grades over the past three years. His grades for controlling the running game and blocking pitches haven’t declined as consistently across all out those outlets but there has been a bit of downward creep. Statcast, for instance, had him as a subpar blocker in the past two years.

Taking the Perez route and coming out from behind the plate isn’t a likely in Philadelphia. As mentioned, Realmuto’s offense has been declining, which wouldn’t be ideal for him if he were at first base or in the designated hitter slot. The Phils don’t have those opportunities available for him regardless, with Bryce Harper locked in at first base and Kyle Schwarber essentially a full-time DH. Harper is signed through 2031 and Schwarber 2030.

All those concerns are presumably things the Phillies are aware of, thus explaining why they toyed with the idea of a future without Realmuto. But despite all the concerns, Realmuto was still the best free agent catcher available this winter and the Phils clearly needed to do something. Rafael Marchán and Garrett Stubbs are on the roster but neither would have been an ideal everyday option behind the plate. Stubbs has 203 big league games under his belt with subpar offense and defense. Marchan’s big league numbers are a bit more encouraging but he has just 82 games under his belt.

In the end, the Phils are sticking with the devil they know. Though there are real concerns in the numbers, there are also the unquantifiable things to consider with a catcher. The Phils have seen Realmuto work with their pitchers for seven years now and presumably are happy to have him continue doing that for another three years.

It appears the 2026 Phillies are going to look a lot like the previous versions of the team, with a few modifications. Adolis García will take over in right field, with Nick Castellanos likely to be jettisoned at some point. Ranger Suárez is gone, having an agreement in place with the Red Sox, but the Phils will hope Andrew Painter can step up to replace him on the pitching chart. Justin Crawford will hopefully take over center field. Their two big free agents this winter, Schwarber and Realmuto, have been re-signed.

That leaves the Phils with the same core, which can be argued to be good or bad going forward. It has certainly been a good core in the past. They’ve won at least 87 games in four straight seasons. They made the World Series in 2022 and won the National League East in the past two campaigns. But Schwarber will turn 33 this year, as will Trea Turner and Aaron Nola. Harper’s already that age. Zack Wheeler turns 36 this year. As mentioned, Realmuto will be 35 in a few months. Everyone in that group is signed for at least two more seasons but often far more.

Spending so much money on that veteran core has pushed the payroll up. RosterResource estimates the Phils to have a $281MM payroll and $317MM competitive balance tax figure. The annual breakdown of Realmuto’s deal hasn’t yet been reported but the CBT won’t be impacted by that, since that number is calculated based on AAV. The Phillies are in the highest possible realm of taxation, both because they have paid the tax in at least three straight years and because their CBT number is above the top threshold of $304MM.

They were just under that top line coming into today, facing a 95% tax rate. The Realmuto deal has blown them past it, well into the area where they pay a 110% tax on new spending. This will therefore add roughly $15MM to their tax bill this year on top of the money going to Realmuto himself.

Realmuto had a fairly quiet market but was connected to the Red Sox at one point. With Realmuto and Danny Jansen signed, the top remaining catcher free agents include Victor Caratini, Jonah Heim and others.

Ken Rosenthal and Matt Gelb of The Athletic first reported the two sides were close. Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Robert Murray of FanSided reported the agreement was in place and provided specifics of the contract. Photos courtesy of Kyle Ross, Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Twins To Sign Victor Caratini

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The Twins and catcher Victor Caratini are reportedly in agreement on a two-year, $14MM deal. Minnesota has a full 40-man roster and will need a corresponding move to make this official. Caratini is an ACES client.

Caratini, now 32, was a free agent a couple of years ago. He signed a two-year, $12MM deal with the Astros at that time. That pact ended up working out fairly well for Houston. The switch hitter got into 201 games over those two seasons and stepped to the plate 660 times. His 7% walk rate was on the low side but he hit 20 home runs and kept his strikeout rate down to a modest 17.9% clip. He had a combined .263 /.329/.406 line with the Astros, production which translated to a wRC+ of 108.

His work behind the plate has been more of a mixed bag. Outlets like FanGraphs, Statcast and Baseball Prospectus give him solid framing grades. FanGraphs and Statcast don’t look kindly on his work with the running game but both BP and Statcast are fond of his blocking skills.

The overall package was still worth 2.7 wins above replacement over the past two seasons, according to FanGraphs. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Caratini for a $14MM deal over two years. He has hit that mark exactly.

The Twins already have a pretty strong catcher in Ryan Jeffers but it’s possible to see how he and Caratini could co-exist on the same roster. Jeffers hits from the right side and has pretty noticeable platoon splits in his career. He has a .270/.371/.475 line and 138 wRC+ against southpaws but a .226/.299/.396 line and 94 wRC+ otherwise. The switch-hitting Caratini has generally been more balanced. He had a .208/.306/.434 line and 108 wRC+ against lefties last year and a .268/.327/.399 line and 104 wRC+ against righties.

Caratini has also dabbled at first base, with 463 2/3 innings at that spot in his career, including 97 last year. The Twins project to have Josh Bell at first base, another switch hitter. Bell has pretty neutral career splits but hit just .151/.250/.302 against lefties last year. A tiny .162 batting average on balls in play surely hurt him in the split but the Twins might want to at least have a contingency plan in place in case Bell’s struggles against southpaws continue.

Perhaps the plan is for Caratini to share time with Jeffers behind the plate, occasionally protecting him from tough righties, while also playing first on occasion. With Jeffers an impending free agent, Caratini could then take on a more prominent role in 2027.

It’s also possible that Jeffers ends up on the trade block. He will make $6.7MM in his final year before hitting the open market. Signing Caratini and then flipping Jeffers would be a relatively cash-neutral move for the Twins, which would bring back whatever Jeffers could get on the trade market.

The Twins also have Alex Jackson on the roster. He was acquired from the Orioles in November. He and the Twins avoided arbitration earlier this month by agreeing to a $1.35MM salary. Jhonny Pereda is also on the 40-man but he is still optionable and could be kept in Triple-A.

If the Twins plan to hang onto both Caratini and Jeffers, then Jackson could get squeezed from the roster, since he is out of options. If he were to be passed through waivers, he would likely stick around as non-roster depth. He has more than three years of service time but less than five. That means he would have the right to elect free agency but would have to forfeit his remaining salary commitments in exercising that right.

Time will tell about the domino effects. For now, the Twins have made a modest upgrade to their roster. Minnesota is looking to scale back payroll relative to 2025 but have some powder dry. They cut a lot of money from the budget last year by trading Carlos Correa and almost their entire bullpen. It’s been suggested they could look to start the 2026 season in the range of $115MM. RosterResource pegs them at $107MM, assuming the Caratini guarantee is evenly distributed.

The bullpen could still use a bit of help and maybe they still have some spending capacity for that. Trading Jeffers would give them a bit more breathing room, while also potentially bringing back something useful.

For the catching market more generally, it’s possible there’s a mini run happening here in the middle of January. The offseason started with J.T. Realmuto as the top available free agent, followed by Caratini and Danny Jansen. The Rangers non-tendered Jonah Heim in November and then signed Jansen in December but the market stayed on the quiet side for a while, perhaps due to the Phillies exploring the possibility of signing Bo Bichette. Going down that road likely would have prevented the Phils from having enough money to re-sign Realmuto.

In the past 24 hours, a lot has changed. The Dodgers reached a deal with Kyle Tucker. The Mets, who were hoping to sign Tucker, pivoted to Bichette via a short-term deal with big average annual values. The Phils, who offered Bichette a longer deal with less annually, then pivoted to reaching a new agreement with Realmuto.

That left Caratini as the clear top option remaining in free agency. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Phils viewed him as a backup plan if they didn’t get something done with Realmuto. It is perhaps not a coincidence then that the Twins have snatched up Caratini just a few hours after the reported of Realmuto going back to Philly.

The Astros had some interest in bringing Caratini back but figured he would get a better paycheck and a bigger role elsewhere, reports Chandler Rome of The Athletic. Just before this reported agreement with the Twins, Chris Cotillo of MassLive floated Caratini as a potential fit for the Red Sox. There are presumably other teams looking for catching upgrades as well.

With Realmuto and Caratini both coming off the board today, the market looks noticeably less exciting. Heim is one of the more notable free agents still available, alongside Luke Maile, Elias Díaz, Reese McGuire, Christian Vázquez, Mitch Garver and Gary Sánchez. Perhaps that will work to Minnesota’s advantage if they are looking to make Jeffers available.

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported the Twins and Caratini had a two-year deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the $14MM guarantee. Photos courtesy of Brett Davis, Tim Heitman, Imagn Images

Phillies Reportedly Made Seven-Year Offer To Bo Bichette

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The Mets and Bo Bichette reportedly have a deal in place, a three-year deal with a huge average annual value and opt-outs after each season. It seems he almost went the more traditional route. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that the Phillies thought they were going to land Bichette with a $200MM deal over seven years until the Mets swooped in with their offer after losing Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers last night. Matt Gelb of The Athletic says the offer was between $190MM and $200MM.

The full breakdown of the offer from Philly isn’t known, so it’s hard to fully compare the two paths. For instance, the Philly offer may or may not have contained deferred money or opt-outs, which could change the perception of its value.

But the basic structure is more in line with expectations from the beginning of the offseason. Back in November, MLBTR predicted Bichette for a $208MM deal over eight years, an average annual value of $26MM. Philly’s offer, assuming no deferrals were involved, would have been a slightly lower guarantee but at a higher AAV of $28.6MM.

That kind of deal would have been in line with other deals received by All-Star middle infielders in recent years. Willy Adames, Dansby Swanson, Marcus Semien, Javier Báez and Trevor Story all received guarantees between $140MM and $182MM in recent years, on deals of either six or seven years in length.

Bichette has decided to go a different route and it’s understandable why he would. He is still quite young, only 27 years old, turning 28 in March. With this Mets deal, the specific structure hasn’t yet been reported, but it’s a $42MM average annual value. If he stays healthy and productive, he can bank more than 20% of what the Phils offered him in one year, then return to the open market in search of another long-term offer. If he has an injury-shortened season or his performance takes a downturn, he can decline his opt-out and continue earning at a high rate. Even if he plays out all three years of his deal with the Mets, he will have earned almost two thirds of the Philly offer. He’ll be going into his age-31 season and could look to make up the difference then.

He can also re-evaluate the spending environment more generally. The current collective bargaining agreement expires next winter. The industry is expecting a lockout, just as there was the last time a CBA expired, but that lockout resulted in gains for free agents. The competitive balance tax thresholds went up, which helped spur spending over the past few years. The owners are expected to push for a salary cap next winter but that’s nothing new for them. They’ve pushed for that before without the players agreeing to it, so it’s entirely possible the players make gains in the CBT area again.

Both Tucker and Bichette decided to go the short-term, high-AAV route. Usually, top free agents go out looking for the security of a long-term deal but pivot to these kinds of arrangements when they don’t find what they’re looking for. In at least Bichette’s case, it appears he didn’t have to go this way but chose to. It’s possible Tucker did as well. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that he had long-term offers, getting up to even ten years. No specifics have been reported on those offers but they may have come from the Blue Jays. Recent reporting has suggested they were more willing to go long-term than the Mets or Dodgers.

It’s difficult to say if this is indicative of some sort of trend from the team perspective. Ultimately, we’re talking about two data points here with Tucker and Bichette. It’s understandable why the teams would want to avoid long-term commitments. Signing a top free agent often involves offering him a longer deal than other teams are willing to do. Those later years can be painful as a player pushes into his late 30s and his production declines.

But convincing a player to go the short-term route usually means cranking up the AAV levels. The teams who can most afford to do that usually have high payrolls to begin with, and therefore high tax bills. With the Tucker deal, the Dodgers are not going only to pay him a $57.1MM AAV, factoring in deferrals. They’re also going to pay a 110% tax on that AAV, leading to a tax bill of almost $63MM. That means they’re valuing Tucker’s 2026 campaign around $120MM. Unless they dip below the top tax bracket in 2027, the same will be true for that season.

The Dodgers seemingly preferred this route due to various circumstances. They have a relatively old roster, with many of their core players in their mid-30s. They presumably know that they can’t field a successful team like that forever and need younger players to step up. Many of their top prospects are outfielders who have not yet reached Triple-A and are therefore still a bit over the horizon. Tucker’s short-term deal is therefore a perfect bridge to that next era.

For the Mets, president of baseball operations David Stearns got his job with the club already having a lot of money on the books and he seemingly has a reluctance to adding to it. Despite having access to Steve Cohen’s checkbook, he has mostly capped the club at three-year deals. An exception was made for Juan Soto’s epic deal, though he was a special case as a free agent going into his age-26 season.

Apart from Soto, Stearns hasn’t given anyone a deal longer than three years. They reportedly stretched a bit by offering Tucker four years, though he took a very similar offer from the Dodgers. The Mets then pivoted to give a strong three-year deal to Bichette. It seems the club would rather spend more money now, both in terms of salary and taxes, in order to not bog down the long-term picture with deals for aging players. The full details of the Bichette deal with the Mets haven’t been released but the Mets will probably pay more than $40MM in annual taxes, on top of what Bichette will receive.

That’s consistent with some of their other pursuits. They swapped out the five years remaining on Brandon Nimmo’s deal for Marcus Semien, signed for three years but at a higher rate. They seemed unwilling to go beyond three years for either Pete Alonso or Edwin Díaz, who both signed elsewhere. The Mets have also been on the lookout for starting pitching but reportedly have a preference to avoid long-term deals there as well.

It’s unclear if these kinds of preferences are going to be fairly permanent or if they’re due to current circumstances. TheMets have a decent veteran contingent on the roster but are waiting for younger guys like Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong, Brandon Sproat, Carson Benge, Jett Williams and others to form a new young core. Perhaps as those players become established at the big league level, and big-money contracts expire, the front office will be more willing to make long-term investments.

Whether or not this is a trend will surely depend on the upcoming collective bargaining agreement. The current CBA, negotiated during the 2021-22 lockout, saw the tax brackets get pushed up noticeably. That has seemingly worked out fairly well for players, as spending has stayed robust since that CBA was signed. Some teams will argue that this kind of spending is why a salary cap is necessary but they benefit from the current arrangement. Half of the tax money collected from big-spending clubs gets redistributed to other teams, alongside other revenue-sharing payments.

The players seem unlikely to agree to a salary cap regardless. They would also likely point out that a cap system would probably still see marquee free agents paid well, whereas the middle tier and lower free agents would be more likely squeezed out.

If this does turn out to be a trend, it will be notable to watch it play out in the long run. Perhaps onerous deals like those for Kris Bryant or Anthony Rendon will become less common but players who stay productive could earn far more by continually commanding premium salaries.

The Phillies were less keen on the Dodgers/Mets path. Gelb reports they were not willing to offer Bichette a short-term, high-AAV deal because of their tax situation. Like the Dodgers and Mets, they are repeat tax payors in the top CBT bracket, which means a 110% tax on additional spending. They therefore preferred to make a longer offer, signing Bichette into his mid-30s at a lower annual rate.

It seems they’ve already pivoted and spent the money that Bichette didn’t take. They reportedly have a three-year, $45MM agreement in place to bring back J.T. Realmuto. The $15MM AAV on that deal is well south of what they offered Bichette, but the Bichette deal was likely going to lead to a trade of third baseman Alec Bohm, who is going to make $10.2MM this year. The Phils will be sticking with Realmuto and Bohm for roughly the same annual price as they would have paid to Bichette.

It would have been an interesting alternate path for the Phils. A seven-year commitment would have added another long-term deal for a club that already has a number of those. But on the other hand, Bichette would have been a welcome infusion of youth. Most of the core players on the Phillies are both in their mid-30s and signed long term. Tagging in the 28-year-old Bichette would have counteracted that but he has gone a different path, leaving the Phils to stick with Realmuto and a very similar club to last year’s.

Photo courtesy of Dan Hamilton, Imagn Images

White Sox Interested In Michael Conforto

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The White Sox have some interest in free agent outfielder Michael Conforto, according to Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Conforto was with the Dodgers in 2025 but never seemed likely to return there even before Los Angeles made their stunning agreement with Kyle Tucker last night.

Conforto, 33 in March, is coming off a few down years. His best stretch of play was with the Mets earlier in his career. Through the end of the 2020 season, he had 623 games under his belt, with a .259/.358/.484 line and 128 wRC+. He was good for 30ish home runs from 2017 to 2019 and then hit nine over the fence in the shortened 2020 season.

He hasn’t really been at that level since. His production scuffled in 2021, with just 14 home runs and total offense closer to league average. Shoulder surgery wiped out his 2022 season entirely. He then signed a two-year deal with the Giants. In 2023, he was again around league average overall, with 15 home runs for the year.

The second year of that pact was a bit more encouraging. Conforto hit 20 home runs and slashed .237/.309/.450. That line was 12% better than league average by measure of wRC+. That wasn’t up to his prime years with the Mets but was his best showing in a while.

It was also possible to squint and see the potential for more. His first half was interrupted by a hamstring strain and he never seemed to get into a groove. He stayed healthy in the second half and caught fire, with a .272/.337/.543 line and 143 wRC+ in his final 169 plate appearances.

The Dodgers decided to make a bet on that hot finish, signing Conforto to a one-year pact worth $17MM but with deferrals. That didn’t work out. Conforto slashed .199/.305/.333 on the year for an 83 wRC+. The Dodgers did not carry him on the roster into the postseason.

After that down season, his earning power should be lower than it was a year ago. He would therefore make sense for the White Sox as a buy-low option who theoretically has some upside. He has only sporadically shown that upside lately but even his down 2025 season had some theoretical reasons for optimism.

His 11.5% walk rate last year was quite strong. His 24.9% strikeout rate a tad high but pretty normal for him. His .247 batting average on balls in play was quite low, so he may have had poor luck on the year. His Statcast data wasn’t elite but wasn’t poor either. His bat speed was in the 77th percentile of big leaguers. His barrel rate was 56th, his hard hit rate 53rd and his average exit velocity 48th.

The Sox are deep in a rebuild and won’t be contending soon. They would be one of the clubs best suited to take a flier on Conforto and hope for a return to form, as a contending club would presumably prefer a player with a more impressive recent track record. If he has a strong first half, he could then be flipped at the trade deadline for a prospect or two.

Chicago’s outfield currently projects to include Luis Robert Jr. and Andrew Benintendi in two spots. Those two are themselves candidates to be traded this year. They could each also stand to spend some time in the designated hitter slot, given their injury histories.

Brooks Baldwin, Tristan Peters, Derek Hill, Everson Pereira and some other young players should be in the mix for outfield playing time. Baldwin and Peters still have options and could be sent to the minors. Hill and Pereira are out of options but are the kind of fringe roster players who could clear waivers and be outrighted to the minors as non-roster depth.

With Tucker now signed, the outfield free agent market has Cody Bellinger up top and then a notable gap to the other options. Harrison Bader would arguably be the second-best option, with guys like Conforto, Mike Tauchman, Austin Hays, Miguel Andujar and others forming the next tier. Max Kepler would have been in this cluster somewhere but he recently received an 80-game PED suspension. That cuts into his appeal both because he’ll miss the first half of the season and then wouldn’t be eligible for the postseason.

Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images

Red Sox To Sign Ranger Suárez

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January 15: The contract includes a mutual option for 2031, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. That doesn’t change much about the deal beyond allowing the Red Sox to kick some of the money back to the end of the 2030 season in the form of an option buyout.

January 14: The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Suárez to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a five-year deal worth $130MM for the Boras Corporation client. It appears to be fairly straightforward, reportedly not containing any deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40-man and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in the Willson Contreras swap.

Gray is arguably the kind of #2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes.

The club has hit a bit of a wall there. Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don’t seem to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to go to the lengths necessary to sign him. Donovan should still be available but the Sox haven’t met their asking price, at least not yet.

In the wake of Bregman’s agreement with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI as well as Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggested Boston could switch their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford suggested the club was getting more aggressive on the trade market but the Sox have gone to free agency instead.

The contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

But his velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph last year.

He also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise. Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason.

As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. But with this deal, Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but has surpassed it. He has matched the length with an extra $3MM in terms of average annual value, getting to $26MM AAV.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the #5 spot but he would also have competition from guys like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

But it also seems fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte a bunch this winter. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market but perhaps there’s some scenario where Breslow puts some big prospect names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. If the Phillies can sign Bichette, they are expected to trade Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott to make room. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is far more marginal. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more okay than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $216MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $266MM. That’s assuming the Suárez deal is broken down evenly at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown hasn’t been publicly reported yet. If it’s front-loaded or back-loaded, that could alter the actual payroll. However, the CBT is calculated based on a player’s AAV, so that won’t change.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post. first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Mariners Acquire Yosver Zulueta

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The Mariners and Reds announced a trade sending reliever Yosver Zulueta to Seattle for minor league pitcher Dusty Revis. Zulueta was just designated for assignment by Cincinnati a few hours ago when they made their Pierce Johnson signing official. Seattle designated infielder Samad Taylor for assignment in a corresponding move.

Zulueta, who turns 28 next week, has a limited major league track record. He has thrown 23 2/3 innings for the Reds over the past two seasons. In that time, he has allowed 5.32 earned runs per nine frames. His 10.9% walk rate is on the high side but his 24.8% strikeout rate and 54% ground ball rate are both strong figures.

Despite the short résumé, the stuff is intriguing. His four-seamer and sinker have both averaged in the upper 90s during his time as a big leaguer. He has also thrown a slider and changeup in the upper 80s. His minor league numbers are also enticing, though with similar control issues as his time in the majors. At Triple-A last year, he tossed 60 1/3 innings with a 3.28 ERA, 31.2% strikeout rate and 56.5% ground ball rate but a 12.8% walk rate.

Zulueta first got a 40-man spot from the Blue Jays in November of 2022. He has mostly been on optional assignment in the three seasons since then, with a waiver claim by Cincinnati along the way.

That would normally position him to be out of options but he may qualify for a fourth option. A player can qualify for a fourth option if he doesn’t have five “full” seasons as a professional, with a “full” season usually consisting of 90 days on an active roster. Zulueta made his professional debut in 2021 but only made one appearance in Single-A that year, so he may only have four “full” seasons. That’s likely why his FanGraphs page lists him as still having an option.

The Mariners have a pretty good reputation of getting good results from unheralded relievers. That doesn’t mean they succeed with every guy they pick up but Zulueta clearly has a powerful arm, so perhaps Seattle can figure out a way to make good use of it. If things go well, Zulueta has less than a year of service time and can be affordably controlled into the foreseeable future.

Cincinnati takes a flier on Revis, whom Seattle drafted in the 11th round last summer. The 6’2″ righty turned in a 4.04 ERA across 15 starts during his final season at Western Carolina University. He didn’t pitch after the draft. Josh Kirshenbaum of MLB Pipeline wrote on draft day that he held his fastball velocity in the mid-90s while working out of the Catamounts rotation.

Francys Romero of BeisbolFR.com first reported that Zulueta was being traded to Seattle. Photo courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images

Cubs Could Use Matt Shaw In Outfield

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The Cubs made a big addition to their infield this week by signing Alex Bregman to a five-year deal. That has led to speculation about the club then pivoting to a trade of another infielder, such as Nico Hoerner or Matt Shaw. At Bregman’s introductory press conference today, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer admitted that they have received more calls from other clubs about Hoerner and Shaw this week, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. But that doesn’t mean they plan to trade either and Hoyer said Shaw could spend some time in the outfield this year, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN, which would help him get into the lineup more.

The Cubs came into the winter with a projected infield alignment of Shaw at third, Dansby Swanson at short, Hoerner at second and Michael Busch at first. Adding Bregman at third blocks Shaw from a regular role. He has primarily been a third baseman but has dabbled in the middle infield as well. That has contributed somewhat to the Hoerner trade speculation. Since Hoerner is an impending free agent, there’s an argument for flipping him now and putting Shaw at second base.

But Hoerner is far more established as a useful big leaguer than Shaw. The latter just made his debut last year and has 126 big league games under his belt. In that time, he produced a subpar batting line of .226/.295/.394, leading to a 93 wRC+. He was better in the second half, with a .258/.317/.522 line and 130 wRC+, but in a fairly small sample of 205 plate appearances.

Hoerner, on the other hand, has been a regular for years. He played in at least 135 games in each of the past four campaigns. He doesn’t have huge power but is tough to strike out and has consistently been an above-average hitter with that contact approach. He also has excellent defense and speed. The combination has been worth at least 3.9 wins above replacement for four straight years, per FanGraphs.

Subtracting Hoerner and subbing in Shaw would run the risk of noticeably downgrading the team in 2026, a year in which the Cubs clearly want to compete. They just made the postseason in 2025 and have been aggressively adding to the club this winter via their Bregman signing and the Edward Cabrera trade.

If some team gives them a strong offer, they would naturally have to consider the pros and cons. Just in the past week, the Giants, Mariners and Yankees have been connected to Hoerner in rumors. But it also appears the club could be leaning towards using Shaw in a utility capacity this year. If Hoerner is not extended, he would depart after 2026, opening up second base for Shaw to have a more regular role.

Shaw doesn’t have outfield experience as a professional. Since being selected 13th overall in 2023, he has played third base and the two middle infield spots in the minors. In the big leagues last year, he mostly played third with just six innings at the keystone and none at shortstop. He did play a bit of outfield in the early parts of his collegiate career but was mostly kept in the middle infield as time went on.

During his major league time last year, Shaw’s sprint speed was ranked in the 90th percentile of major leaguers. That athleticism gives him a nice head-start in terms of being a viable outfielder but the Cubs will presumably want to get him reps in spring if they plan to follow through on using Shaw as a super utility guy.

Teams love that kind of versatility and there could be clear benefits for the Cubs in terms of playing matchups. Shaw hits from the right side and had noticeable platoon splits in his first big league season. He had a .218/.287/.362 line and 82 wRC+ against righties but a .250/.318/.490 line and 125 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.

The Cubs project to have a few lefty bats in their regular lineup, with Pete Crow-Armstrong in center, Busch at first base and Moisés Ballesteros likely doing some catching and serving as the designated hitter. They all have fared better against righties in their respective careers, with Crow-Armstrong having particular struggles against southpaws. Ian Happ is also a switch-hitter who has had more success as a lefty bat in his career.

There’s also the fact that Seiya Suzuki could spend more time in the outfield with the way the roster is currently constructed. He was largely the designated hitter last year but the departure of Kyle Tucker means he is slated to take more time on the grass. Outs Above Average has ranked Suzuki as six outs below par in his career and Defensive Runs Saved has put him at negative five. Even if he gets a lot of starts, the Cubs could look to replace him defensively late in games. Having another viable outfielder on the roster naturally helps there.

This is all contingent on everyone being healthy, as one injury quickly changes the whole picture, but that also underscores the importance of having some versatility. If Shaw is able to viably play the outfield, then it makes it easier to rotate players around based on health and matchups. Currently, the bench projects to have backup catcher Miguel Amaya and first baseman Tyler Austin alongside Shaw and outfielder Justin Dean. The latter is a strong defender and baserunner but has bigger questions about his bat. He is also still optionable.

Getting into the lineup regularly would also be good for Shaw from a developmental perspective. As mentioned, he only just made his major league debut last year. He was subpar at the plate overall but seemingly got better as the season progressed. Going into a part-time role and missing reps wouldn’t be ideal for the long term, especially if he’s to take over for Hoerner at second base a year from now. Finding a way for him to take 400 to 600 plate appearances, even though he doesn’t have a clear position, would be good for both him and the club.

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

Rockies To Sign Willi Castro To Two-Year Deal

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The Rockies and utility player Willi Castro have reportedly agreed to a two-year deal that guarantees the ISE Baseball client $12.8MM. Colorado has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

Castro, 29 in April, just finished a strong three-year run as one of the better multi-positional players in the sport. That run ended with a deep slump just before he hit free agency but he has still secured a nice deal for himself.

He was non-tendered by the Tigers after the 2022 season and then landed with the Twins via a minor league deal ahead of the 2023 campaign. That minor league pact turned into a huge win for Minnesota. Castro cracked the Opening Day roster in 2023 and went on to have a strong season, getting into 124 games and stepping to the plate 409 times. The switch-hitter launched nine home runs and drew walks at an 8.3% clip. His .257/.339/.411 batting line led to a 107 wRC+, indicating he was seven percent above average at the plate overall. He also stole 33 bases in 38 attempts.

Defensively, he bounced all around the diamond, spending time in all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base. He got strong marks almost everywhere the Twins put him. He even got a few mop-up appearances on the mound. The total package added up to 2.5 wins above replacement on the season, according to FanGraphs.

His 2024 season ended up being quite similar. He slashed .247/.331/.385 for a 106 wRC+, swiped 14 bags and played every position except for catcher and first base. His fWAR total nudged up to 2.9 in slightly more playing time.

Last year, he was on essentially the same pace through the trade deadline. He got into 86 games for the Twins, had a .245 /.335 /.407 batting line, 109 wRC+, and nine stolen bases while moving all around.

The Twins fell out of the race and pivoted to selling at the deadline. They flipped Castro to the Cubs for minor league pitchers Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong. Castro’s performance plummeted after the swap. He slashed .170/.245/.240 for a wRC+ of just 40. He wasn’t helped by a .222 batting average on balls in play but the Cubs scaled back his playing time regardless. He only started two of the final 11 games of the regular season. He appeared in two playoff games for the Cubs but without getting sent to the plate.

That was unfortunate timing, with Castro just heading to the open market, but it was also only 110 plate appearances. It seemed possible that clubs would still value his versatility and would focus more on the positives of that three-year run, overlooking the poor finish. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Castro for a two-year, $14MM deal. In December, it was reported that Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Colorado were interested in Castro. The Rockies have landed him by giving him a solid two-year deal just below MLBTR’s prediction.

The Rockies don’t have a lot of certainty on their roster, which is to be expected for a team that just lost 119 games, getting to the century mark in the loss column for a third straight year. They tried bolstering the roster last winter with veteran utility signings. They gave Thairo Estrada $4MM and Kyle Farmer $3.25MM, both on one-year deals. Neither panned out. Estrada was injured for most of the year and hit just .253/.285/.370 in the 39 games he was able to play. Farmer avoided the injured list but put up an even less impressive line of .227/.280/.365.

Ideally, Castro will move past his struggles with the Cubs and return to form. Where he plays will depend upon what happens with the other young players on the Colorado roster. The outfield playing time will likely be divvied up to some combination of Brenton Doyle, Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck.

Ezequiel Tovar will be the regular at shortstop but the rest of the infield is fairly wide open. Adael Amador could play second but he also has just 164 big league plate appearances with a .176/.242/.250 line. Third baseman Kyle Karros got 156 plate appearances last year but hit just .226/.308/.277. Tyler Freeman will be in the mix somewhere as another multi-positional guy but he’s also coming off a subpar season. Ryan Ritter can also bounce around a bit but he has a .241/.296/.337 line in his 207 big league appearances.

With the Rockies so far from contention, they will be focused on development and will want to have playing time open for anyone in that group who earns it. Castro will likely change positions throughout the year depending on the health and performance of all those other guys. If his offense gets back to where it was during his time in Minnesota, then the Rockies will likely make him available on the trade block this summer, as they aren’t likely to return to contention during the course of this contract.

RosterResource now estimates the Rockies for a payroll of $110MM, assuming the money on this deal is equally distributed across the two years. They spent $124MM on last year’s club and could still have some powder dry if they’re planning for a similar level of spending this year. Earlier this month, general manager Josh Byrnes expressed a desire to add a couple of veterans to the rotation. They have since signed Michael Lorenzen but could still have room for one more starter. It’s also possible to see room for some relief pitchers or perhaps another infielder.

For clubs who missed on Castro, the free agent market still features a couple of other utility guys, including Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ramón Urías, Adam Frazier, Enrique Hernández, Jon Berti, Jorge Mateo and others.

Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the Rockies and Castro had a two-year deal. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the $12.8MM guarantee. Photo courtesy of Jordan Godfree, Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images

Guardians Acquire Franklin Gomez From Mets

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The Guardians have acquired minor league left-hander Franklin Gomez from the Mets, according to announcements from both clubs. The Mets receive international bonus pool space in return. The pool space changing hands is $1.5MM, reports Mike Mayer of Metsmerized. Gomez does not have a 40-man roster spot, so no corresponding moves are necessary.

Today marks the start of the 2026 international signing period. Ben Badler of Baseball America is tracking all of the signings as they become known. Under this pool system, each team has a finite amount of money they can spend on international amateurs. This year’s pools are all between $5MM and $9MM. Broadly speaking, the smaller-market clubs get bigger pools and the larger-market clubs get smaller pools.

The Mets were initially allocated a pool of $5.44MM and the Guardians $8.03MM. Teams are allowed to trade pool space in $250K increments, but a team can’t increase its initial pool size by more than 60%.

Adding pool space was important for the Mets. Most teams make verbal agreements with prospects years in advance of the official signings, so they have usually agreed to allocate most of the pool space ahead of time. The Yankees had a verbal agreement in place with Wandy Asigen, an infielder from the Dominican Republic, but reports emerged in December that he was going to sign with the Mets instead. Francys Romero of BeisbolFR and Badler covered the development at the time. Asigen officially signed with the Mets today for $3.9MM.

That signing bonus would have taken up the majority of the Mets’ initial pool. That may have necessitated the Mets breaking their verbal agreements with other prospects. Mayer suggests this deal with Cleveland allowed the Mets to have enough pool space to also sign Venezuelan outfielder Cleiner Ramirez as part of this year’s class.

For the Guardians, it seems they would rather have Gomez than the pool space. The 20-year-old Venezuelan was himself an international signee a few years ago, securing a bonus of just $10K from the Mets in 2022. He has raised his stock since then. Matt Eddy of Baseball America just recently wrote about Gomez earlier this month, noting that his fastball velo ticked up in 2025, going from the 89-90 mph range in 2024 to 92-93 last year. His other pitches also made similar jumps.

He finished the year having thrown 71 2/3 innings split between Single-A and High-A, allowing 2.76 earned runs per nine. He struck out 22.1% of batters faced, gave out walks at an 11.1% clip and induced grounders on 48.4% of balls in play. BA recently listed him as the #22 prospect in the Mets’ system, noting that he has a chance to be a future starter, with a relief role as a fallback.

The Guards have undercut their ability to use this year’s pool of unsigned players but Gomez should have more ability to help them in the near term. Most international signees today are 16 years old whereas Gomez is four years older than that and has already climbed a few rungs of the minor league ladder.

Photo courtesy of Ken Blaze, Imagn Images

Cubs Promote Garrett Chiado To Assistant General Manager

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The Cubs announced a series of internal promotions within their baseball operations department yesterday, as relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Among them, Garrett Chiado is now an assistant general manager.

Chiado was first hired by the Cubs in 2016 in the research and development department. He subsequently served as director of pro strategy and director of pro analytics. Now he gets a bump up the chain to the assistant general manager position.

Chicago’s front office is headed by Jed Hoyer, who is the president of baseball operations. Just beneath him is general manager Carter Hawkins. With Chiado’s promotion, they now have three assistant general managers. Ehsan Bokhari was hired away from the Astros in October of 2021. Jared Banner was promoted from the vice president of player development role in November of 2023.

Hoyer took over in November of 2020 and the club has largely been focused on player development in his time. The big league team hovered around .500 from 2021 to 2024 but took a big step forward in 2025 by winning 92 games and beating the Padres in the Wild Card round, before falling to the Brewers in the NLDS. They have recently made some aggressive moves to build out the 2026 roster, trading for Edward Cabrera and signing Alex Bregman.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

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