The Yankees and outfielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger are going to reunite on a new contract. The Boras Corporation client reportedly gets a five-year deal with a $162.5MM guarantee, with no deferrals. He gets a $20MM signing bonus followed by salaries of $32.5MM in each of the first two years, $25.8MM in each of the next two, then $25.9MM in the final season. Bellinger can opt out after the second or third season, though those opt-outs are pushed by a year if the 2027 season is canceled by a lockout. Bellinger also gets a full no-trade clause. The Yanks currently have a 40-man vacancy and won’t need to make a corresponding move unless they fill that spot before this agreement becomes official.

It always seemed like a good bet that Bellinger would return to the Yankees, since their first season together was a success. But there was a standoff recently, as the club and Bellinger’s camp had a bit of a gap. It was reported earlier this month that the Yankees had an offer out to Bellinger. No details on that offer were revealed but it was reported a few days later that they had made a second offer.

Subsequent reporting on the negotiations suggested the Yanks had put forth a five-year offer worth more than $150MM, but with Bellinger’s camp hoping to get the length pushed to seven years. That gap seemingly put things on ice for a moment, with alternative paths available to both parties. The Yankees showed interest in other players, including outfielder Luis Robert Jr., while Bellinger still had potential fits with teams like the Dodgers and Mets.

But the market has changed quite a bit in the past week. The Dodgers and Mets got into a bidding war over Kyle Tucker, with the Dodgers coming out on top. The Mets then pivoted to signing Bo Bichette to bolster their infield, followed by trading infielder Luisangel Acuña to the White Sox as part of their package to land Robert.

Those moves took away some alternate paths from the Yankees but also removed a couple of logical landing spots for Bellinger. He had also been connected to the Blue Jays, Giants and Phillies throughout the winter but none of those clubs seemed to be strongly in the mix. The Yanks seemingly didn’t budge far from where their reported offer was a few weeks ago, though they did add the opt-outs. It was reported a few days ago that they were willing to include those.

Though Bellinger and Boras didn’t quite get the seven years they were looking for, the deal comes in fairly close to expectations from the beginning of the offseason. For instance, MLBTR predicted Bellinger to land a guarantee of $140MM over five years. Bellinger has secured himself a floor just above that. There’s also a path to boosting his future earnings again with more opt-out opportunities down the line.

He is now 30, turning 31 in July, so he will be 32 years old by the end of the 2027 season. Alex Bregman and Kyle Schwarber both just got five-year deals this offseason, with Schwarber going into his age-33 season and Bregman age-32. Schwarber got a $150MM guarantee and Bregman $175MM, though Bregman’s deals had deferrals which pushed the net present value pretty close to Schwarber’s guarantee.

For Bellinger, he can bank $85MM over the next two years, when factoring in the signing bonus and the front-loaded salaries. When his first opt-out decision comes around, he would still have three years and $77.5MM left on this deal. If he continues to be a productive player between now and then, he should be in a good position to opt out. The lockout-specific provision of the opt-outs appears to be a way for the Yankees to get at least two years of Bellinger’s services.

While Bellinger has maintained some future earning potential, he has also secured himself a strong base after a few years of uncertainty. When he first hit the open market, he had shown both huge upside and a massive downside. In 2019, then with the Dodgers, Bellinger was the National League MVP. He hit 47 home runs that year. Offense was up all around the league thanks to some juiced balls but Bellinger also drew walks at a 14.4% clip and only struck out 16.4% of the time. His .305/.406/.629 line led to a 161 wRC+, even in the heightened offensive environment of that season. He stole 15 bases and got strong reviews for his defense. FanGraphs credited him with 7.8 wins above replacement.

But his production backed up a bit in 2020 and he infamously injured his shoulder in the NLCS during a post-homer celebration with teammate Enrique Hernández, as seen in this video from MLB.com.

Bellinger underwent surgery after the season and his performance was awful for two years after. He slashed .193/.256/.355 over 2021 and 2022, getting non-tendered by the Dodgers after the latter campaign. He latched on with the Cubs for 2023, signing a one-year deal worth $17.5MM. He had a strong bounceback season in Wrigley, hitting 26 home runs and slashing .307/.356/.525 for a 135 wRC+.

Going into 2024, Bellinger and his reps at the Boras Corporation were hoping to cash in. He had seemingly put the low points behind him. He was still young, going into his age-28 season, and had shown MVP upside. The previous offseason, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts had both secured 11-year deals. This was seemingly a way to lower the competitive balance tax hit of those deals, as a player’s CBT hit is calculated based on a deal’s average annual value.

MLBTR expected this trend to continue with Bellinger, predicting him for a 12-year deal worth $264MM. That seemed to be at least somewhat aligned with what Bellinger and Boras felt he could get, as they reportedly went out looking to top $200MM.

It did not play out that way. Though Bellinger’s 2023 season was a success, there was seemingly some concern about some lackluster batted-ball data. And with the injury-marred seasons still somewhat fresh in the collective memory, his market never quite developed as hoped.

It wasn’t just Bellinger, as several other players lingered unsigned that season. They came to be known as the “Boras Four”, as they were all repped by the same agency. Bellinger, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman and Jordan Montgomery all settled for short-term deals well below expectations. Bellinger returned to the Cubs on a three-year deal with an $80MM guarantee, with chances to opt out after each season.

The first season of that pact wasn’t a roaring success, as Bellinger was good but not great. He hit 18 home runs and slashed .266/.325/.426 for a wRC+ of 108. Bellinger decided to forgo the first opt-out opportunity and stick with the Cubs. The team didn’t hold up their end of the reunion, however, as they shipped Bellinger to the Yankees. It was effectively a salary dump. The Cubs got Cody Poteet in return, whom they designated for assignment a few months later.

The Cubs ate $5MM in the swap, leaving the Yanks theoretically on the hook for $47.5MM over two years, though with Bellinger still having another opt-out remaining. As mentioned earlier, the Yankees and Bellinger turned out to be a great match. He hit 29 home runs on the year and slashed .272/.334/.480 for a 125 wRC+. Yankee Stadium and its short porch in right field seemed to be a good fit for him, as he slashed .302/.365/.544 at home on the year. He stole 13 bases overall and continued to get good grades for his glovework, earning 4.9 fWAR.

Bellinger triggered his opt-out and took another crack at free agency, which led to this pact. As mentioned, it’s possible that Bellinger will return to the open market yet again in the future. For now, though it came about in circuitous fashion, he has pushed his earning floor above the $200MM he was looking for a few years ago.

His three-year deal with the Cubs paid him $27.5MM in each of the first two years. He collected a $5MM buyout when he opted out of the final season, meaning he banked $60MM on the pact. Combined with this deal with the Yankees, he’ll earn $222.5MM even if he doesn’t trigger either of the opt-outs in this deal.

For players taking the short-term route and hoping for more earnings later, this is another example of how the path is viable. It doesn’t always work out, as Montgomery will surely tell you, but the hit rate is pretty decent. Chapman, Snell, Bellinger, Bregman, Carlos Rodón, Pete Alonso and Carlos Correa have all signed two- or three-year deals with opt-outs and then later signed a longer deal worth nine figures.

For the Yankees, this gets their outfield back to its 2025 level. Both Bellinger and Trent Grisham became free agents at the end of last season but both have now re-signed. They project to line up in two outfield spots with Aaron Judge in another and Giancarlo Stanton in the designated hitter slot. Bellinger can also play a bit of first base but the Yanks could give Ben Rice the regular job there after his breakout season. Rice can also catch, so perhaps Bellinger would slide to first base if Rice is needed behind the plate.

It’s possible the Yankees now look to move some outfield depth in the wake of this deal. Jasson Domínguez was once a top prospect but had an underwhelming season in 2025. He was roughly league average at the plate but with poor defensive metrics. The Yankees also have Spencer Jones pushing for a job after he hit 35 home runs in the minors last year but he also struck out in 35.4% of his plate appearances.

Neither Domínguez nor Jones has a great path to playing time right now. That could change as the season goes along. Stanton is 36 years old and has made at least one trip to the injured list in seven straight seasons now. Judge will turn 34 soon. Even if he himself stays healthy, the Yanks may want to put Judge in the DH slot if Stanton is hurt.

Perhaps the Yankees will keep both Domínguez and Jones around as depth for such situations, as both players are still optionable, but either or both could also be trade fodder. Club owner Hal Steinbrenner has previously expressed a desire to keep the payroll beneath $300MM. The Yanks are now a bit over that. RosterResource has them at $304MM in terms of pure payroll, with a $318MM CBT number.

That CBT number is over the top tier, which is $304MM. Since the Yankees have paid the tax in at least three consecutive years, that puts them in the highest possible tax bracket. They were at about $285MM or so before the Bellinger deal, so they paid a 95% tax on the part of the deal pushing them to the top line and then a 110% tax on the part that went beyond it. In the end, they’re adding more than $30MM in taxes to their ledger, on top of what they are paying Bellinger. They still arguably need some pitching help, so perhaps they would trade from their outfield depth instead of adding more money via free agency.

For the other clubs in the league, this further narrows down the list of available options. As of the start of the year, there were still many players available in free agency or in trade, but the dominos have been falling in quick succession lately. The Cubs got a deal done with Bregman, which prompted the Red Sox to sign Ranger Suárez and the Diamondbacks to get Nolan Arenado. The Tucker deal pushed the Mets to Bichette and Robert, which may have helped the Phillies reunite with J.T. Realmuto and pushed Bellinger to get back together with the Yankees. The Realmuto deal seemingly led to Victor Caratini signing with the Twins. All that happened in the past 11 days.

Pitchers and catchers will be reporting to spring training in less than three weeks. With Bellinger now off the board, the top unsigned free agents include Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, Eugenio Suárez, Harrison Bader, Chris Bassitt and others. There are still a few theoretical trade candidates out there, including Brendan Donovan and MacKenzie Gore.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the Yanks and Bellinger were in agreement on a deal. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the five-year length and guarantee. Brendan Kuty of The Athletic first reported the lack of deferrals. Passan then reported the opt-outs, signing bonus and no-trade clause. Nightengale then reported the salary for the first two seasons. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported the full salary breakdown. Nightengale added the detail of the opt-outs being pushed in the event of the 2027 season being canceled. Photos courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Vincent Carchietta, Imagn Images