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Rangers To Select Curtis Terry

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The Rangers are expected to select the contract of first baseman Curtis Terry to the big league roster this weekend, according to Kennedi Landry of mlb.com.

Terry, a 13th round pick in the 2015 draft, is currently ranked the 26th best prospect in the Rangers’ system, according to MLB Pipeline. FanGraphs has him further down, at number 61 among Texas farmhands. The 24-year-old first baseman is having an excellent year at the plate. Through 269 plate appearances at Triple-A, he’s slashing .294/.375/.583, producing a wRC+ of 129. This is his first year in the upper levels of the minors, having reached High-A in 2019, before the 2020 minor league season was wiped out.

Terry has consistently put up great offensive numbers in his minor league career, with that being his most exciting tool. The scouting report at MLB Pipeline describes him as “an all-bat player” because he is a “well below-average runner with limited range at first base.” With a profile like that, Terry will have to be well above-average hitter to stick in the big leagues. The scouting report at FanGraphs has similar concerns about the overall profile but notes that he could have a saving grace with “his excellent breaking ball recognition.”

For the Rangers, there’s no harm in calling him up and seeing how he handles big-league pitching. The team is in last place in the AL West and fully in rebuild mode. Nate Lowe has been getting the bulk of first base playing time this year and has been hitting well, with a wRC+ of 115 on the year. But since the team doesn’t have a regular DH and has been using that lineup slot on a rotating basis, it should be easy enough to get both Lowe and Terry into the lineup when they want to. And speculatively speaking, it’s possible they could split time on a platoon basis, as Lowe hits from the left side and Terry from the right. It’s also possible that the lineup could lose Joey Gallo this week, as he has been one of the hottest names on the trading block this year, with the Padres and Yankees among the team to have known interest.

Regardless of whether a trade is in the works or not, a transaction of some kind will be required since Terry is not currently on the 40-man roster.

Dodgers Considering Ian Kennedy

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The Dodgers are interested in acquiring Ian Kennedy, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.

This isn’t terribly surprising news, as every contending team is always interested in improving their pitching arsenal as the trade deadline approaches. What is surprising is that the Dodgers find themselves three games behind the Giants in the NL West, a team that few picked as division favorites at the start of the season. And that divisional alignment is at least somewhat attributable to the fact that the Dodgers have lost to the Giants by blowing ninth-inning leads the past two nights.

Overall, the bullpen hasn’t been a glaring weakness for the club this year. The Dodgers’ relievers, as a whole, have an ERA of 3.73, the 10th best in the Majors. But they’ve also taken some hits lately, with Jimmy Nelson and Scott Alexander heading to the Injured List. David Price has also had to move from the bullpen to the rotation, in order to cover for the recent injury to Clayton Kershaw.

For Kennedy, it seems to be a foregone conclusion that he will be changing jerseys in the coming week. He is a free agent at year’s end and is currently playing for a Rangers team that is 35-62, behind every team in the American League except the Orioles. Thus far, he’s pitched 31 1/3 innings for Texas, accumulating 15 saves with an ERA of 2.59. Advanced metrics are somewhat skeptical, with xERA, FIP and xFIP pegging him at 3.40, 3.80 and 3.88, respectively. But he has excellent strikeout and walk rates of 26.8% and 5.7%.

Kenley Jansen has been the Dodgers closer for a decade now, and will probably continue in that role. But there are reasons for pessimism in his profile this year. Despite 21 saves, an ERA of 3.05 and a strikeout rate of 27.2%, Jansen has a ghastly walk rate of 16%, more than double his career rate. That’s probably why some advanced metrics think his ERA is a mirage, with xFIP placing him at 4.79 and SIERA at 4.56.

It’s possible this is just small sample noise, since we’re only talking about 38 1/3 innings and Jansen’s Statcast profile still looks quite healthy. But since Jansen is in the last year of his contract and will be 34 years old by season’s end, the Dodgers don’t have to be invested in Jansen for the long term and could certainly pivot to an alternative such as Kennedy if they felt they had to.

On the money side, Kennedy’s is playing on a salary of $2.15MM this year, leaving less than a million still to be paid out. The Dodgers don’t have to worry about tiptoeing under the luxury tax, since they’ve already blown past the top threshold of $250MM. (Roster Resource currently has their luxury tax calculation at $262MM.) But that means that they’re paying a whopping 62.5% tax on any additional salary they take on, which could make a modest contract like Kennedy’s more appealing than a costlier addition such as Craig Kimbrel, who is still owed over $6MM of his $16MM salary this year.

Mariners Place Jake Fraley On COVID-19 IL

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Mariners outfielder Jake Fraley is going on the COVID-19 injured list, with fellow outfielder Dillon Thomas being recalled to take his place on the active roster. Manager Scott Servais revealed that Fraley has tested positive for COVID-19 and also has symptoms, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. Servais said the majority of players with whom Fraley was in close contact have been vaccinated, so they’re hoping that will stop the virus from spreading further.

This is a very unfortunate development for what had previously been a breakout year for Fraley. He has thus far put up a line of .237/.409/.439, with a wRC+ of 143 and 1.1 fWAR. Now he will have to isolate for at least 10 days, per league protocols, and attempt to convalesce.

For Thomas, this will be his second stint with the team after a two-game cup of coffee last month. At Triple-A this year, he is slashing .260/.376/.429, good enough for a wRC+ of 103.

Yankees Place Tim Locastro On Injured List, Select Ryan LaMarre

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The Yankees announced they’ve placed outfielder Tim Locastro on the 10-day injured list and selected the contract of fellow outfielder Ryan LaMarre.

The Locastro move isn’t a surprise, as he unfortunately tore his ACL last night, just a few weeks after coming over to the Bronx in a trade with the Diamondbacks. It was hoped that Locastro could shore up an outfield that had already been beset by injuries to Aaron Hicks and Clint Frazier. Sadly for both Locastro and the team, that will not be the case, as the injury will keep him out for the remainder of the season.

As for LaMarre, this is yet another swing in an up-and-down year with the club. His contract was selected back in May, though he wound up on the IL a few days later with a hamstring strain. In three games at the big league level, he couldn’t muster a hit in eight plate appearances.

After recuperating from the injury, he was then outrighted off the roster in June. At Triple-A this year, he has slashed a healthy .310/.403/.483, good enough for a wRC+ of 140. He will provide some depth behind an already-weakened outfield, competing for playing time with Brett Gardner, Greg Allen, Trey Amburgey, Tyler Wade and Hoy Jun Park.

A corresponding move will not be needed to create room on the 40-man for LaMarre because players on the COVID IL do not take up a roster spot. The Yankees’ recent outbreak of the virus led to six players being placed on the COVID IL, creating ample roster space.

Scott Kingery Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Phillies’ infielder/outfielder Scott Kingery recently underwent surgery on his right shoulder to repair a torn labrum, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Kingery will be out of action for the remainder of this season, though Zolecki notes it’s hoped he’ll recuperate by next year’s spring training.

This marks yet another disappointing chapter in the story of Kingery and the Phils. The team signed Kingery to a six-year $24MM contract prior to the 2018 season, before he had even played a game in the big leagues. The hope at the time was to secure the services of a highly-touted prospect at team-friendly rates, before he made himself more expensive through his production.

Unfortunately, Kingery has never been able to deliver on his initial promise in a sustained manner, producing a meager slash line of .229/.280/.387 in 1,127 plate appearances over the past four seasons and getting outrighted off the roster last month. This latest injury only further dims any hopes of the club reaping any rewards from their initial leap of faith with Kingery. The aforementioned contract still guarantees him $6.25MM and $8.25MM for 2022 and 2023, respectively, along with $1.75MM in buyouts for three club options the Phils hold over Kingery for 2024-2026.

If there is any chance of the utilityman righting the ship in the next few years, the first step will be what sounds like a lengthy rehab process after a significant medical procedure.

Athletics’ GM David Forst On Deadline Approach

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Athletics’ general manager David Forst recently spoke to Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle to discuss the state of the team coming out of the All-Star break and moving towards the July 30 trade deadline. The club is planning on making additions, which is unsurprising given that they are currently holding down a wild card spot and are also just 3 1/2 games behind the first-place Astros in the AL West.

More specifically, the team seems to be focused on bullpen upgrades, a need that was recently exacerbated by Trevor Rosenthal’s season-ending surgery. “It’s a little different math now that Trevor’s not going to be part of this group in August and September,” Forst said. “But I think we still see the bullpen as a place we would hope to augment.” Forst and the A’s will seemingly be quite open-minded as to the kind of relievers they target, not worrying about specific roles they have played. “I think our focus is just on best pitchers available and not necessarily guys who have experience closing.”

Even without Rosenthal, the bullpen has held relatively steady in Oakland. Their collective 3.92 ERA is good enough for 11th in the league. But advanced metrics are a bit more skeptical of that mark, with FIP putting them at 4.27 and xFIP at 4.73.

And there could be some help coming from their minor league clubs. Forst says he sees A.J. Puk as “being someone that gets called on up here” and Jesus Luzardo could be an option but “he obviously needs to get some things straightened out down there before he’s a consideration to come back.”

Of course, with the A’s, the budget is always a question. Roster Resource currently estimates the payroll to be $86MM. The team has gone above that in recent years, but not by much. According to Cot’s Contracts, they’ve gone as high as $95MM, in 2019. If the team is willing to go to that range again, that certainly leaves room for shrewd bullpen additions.

But what about a bigger splash? Shortstop stands out as an area of need. Oakland’s shortstops have produced a wRC+ of 61 and an fWAR of -0.1, both numbers putting the team near the bottom of the league. And those are primarily attributable to Elvis Andrus, who has started 87 of Oakland’s 94 games thus far. However, Forst seems uninterested in entertaining the idea of moving on from Andrus. “Elvis is the shortstop,” Forst said. “His defense has been outstanding, his energy and positivity in the clubhouse never waned. I know Bob will tell you how valuable he’s been off the field and his on-field play the last six weeks has absolutely matched that.” These statements always have to be taken with a grain of salt, of course. A public statement could be part of a negotiation strategy that belies the club’s true intents.

But even if the A’s do try to find a new shortstop, it will be more challenging than upgrading the bullpen, given their aforementioned budget-consciousness. Trevor Story is widely believed to be traded this month. But he’s still owed more than $6MM of his $18.5MM salary. Javier Baez is slightly more affordable, with about $4MM remaining of his $11.65MM salary. But it’s still possible the Cubs could retain and extend him. Andrelton Simmons has a salary of $10.5MM but isn’t a huge upgrade over Andrus, given his wRC+ of 73 and fWAR of 0.1 this year. Of course, Andrus himself is making $14MM this season, which could allow the A’s to include him as ballast and increase the prospect payout to keep a deal relatively financially-neutral.

Adding a reliever would be much simpler. Looking at the trade candidates laid out last month by MLBTR’s Steve Adams, the top relievers on the list are Richard Rodriguez, Ian Kennedy, Kendall Graveman and Yimi Garcia. Of that group, the highest paid is Kennedy, with a salary of $2.15MM this year, leaving less than a million to be paid out. A slight shakeup in the bullpen could help the A’s strengthen the relief corps as they try to charge into a pennant race.

Chris Sale To Begin Rehab Assignment; Red Sox To Recall Tanner Houck

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3:25PM: Sale threw three innings of work rather than his scheduled two in his first rehab outing today, Alex Speier of The Boston Globe reports.  The left-hander allowed three singles in his three shutout frames, and threw his fastball in the 94-95mph range, reaching as high as 97mph.  As for Houck, manager Alex Cora told Speier and other reporters that Houck will probably start against the Blue Jays on Wednesday, and be used in the bullpen for Boston’s current series against the Yankees.

11:37AM: Chris Sale is going to begin a rehab assignment today, according to Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic. Additionally, the Red Sox are planning on recalling Tanner Houck today, according to Dan Roche of WBZ.

As noted by Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe, this would be Sale’s first game since August 13th, 2019. Shortly after that, he was shut down with elbow inflammation but was not recommended for Tommy John surgery. Sale tried to come back for the 2020 season but eventually did require Tommy John and underwent the procedure in March of 2020, missing the entirety of that season.

Without Sale, the Red Sox floundered and wound up last in the AL East, finishing the shortened season with a record of 24-36. However, 2021 has been a complete reversal so far, as the club finds itself atop the division with a record of 55-36. Despite their strong placement in the standings, the rotation has not been a strong suit for them. The starters as a whole have produced an ERA of 4.47, 21st-best in the majors, although advanced metrics are a bit more charitable, with a FIP of 3.86, xFIP of 4.11 and a SIERA of 4.20. Concerns over the rotation have also become heightened lately. Garrett Richards has put up an ERA of 6.45 and Eduardo Rodriguez one of 5.35 since the start of June. Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta have not been much better, at 4.76 and 4.85 during that same timeframe, respectively. Nathan Eovaldi has been excellent but always comes with injury concerns. He’s he hasn’t surpassed 125 innings in a season since 2015 and has already tallied 103 1/3 this year.

Sale has been one of the best pitchers in baseball during his career and, if healthy, he would be a gamechanger for any rotation. From 2012 to 2019, Sale hurled 1535 1/3 innings with an ERA of 3.05, a strikeout rate of 30.8% and walk rate of 5.5%, which produced 42.8 fWAR and helped the Red Sox win the 2018 World Series in the process.

As the trade deadline approaches, the health and performance of Sale could impact the urgency with which Boston pursues rotation upgrades. The club has stayed under the luxury tax line so far, but just barely. (According to Roster Resource, their luxury tax hit is $208MM, just below the first threshold of $210MM.) That doesn’t leave a lot of wiggle room, if they insist on limboing under that line. But a healthy Sale would be a bigger upgrade than any trade acquisition they could hope to land in a trade.

In the meantime, the pitching staff is hoping for a boost from Houck as they begin an important series against the Yankees. Houck has put up a 3.07 ERA with 19 Ks and 3 BBs in 14 2/3 innings in Triple-A since returning from a flexor tendon strain.

Mariners To Recall Jarred Kelenic

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2:15pm: Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto confirmed in an appearance on 710 ESPN this morning that Kelenic will open the second half back with the big league club (link via 710’s Brandon Gustafson).

“We sent him back, he had a plan to work on,” said Dipoto. “Some of it was how to approach the game and some of it was more skills development-based, and he did everything we asked him to do. …  We think it’s the right time to give it another shot. He’s just too talented to allow him to not gain this exposure and these at-bats at the big league level.”

Presumably, the Mariners will make a formal announcement and corresponding roster move tomorrow.

10:03am: The Mariners are recalling outfielder Jarred Kelenic for the start of the second half, according to Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times.

After much controversy earlier this year about service time manipulation and the resignation of Mariners President Kevin Mather, the star prospect was initially promoted in May. However, he struggled in his first 23 games to a line of .096/.185/.193, producing a measly wRC+ of 11. This slump caused the Mariners to option the rookie back to Triple-A Tacoma in June. But since that time, Kelenic has fared much better against Triple-A pitching, with a line of .306/.386/.622, for a wRC+ of 135. One very encouraging sign is Kelenic’s strikeout rate. After striking out in 28.3% of his plate appearances at the big league level, he has cut that essentially in half, to 14.3% since his demotion.

If Kelenic can carry that offensive production to the big league level, it would be a tremendous help to a Mariners team that finds itself in playoff contention, seven games behind the Astros in the AL West and 3.5 behind Oakland for the second wild card spot. The club has a record of 48-43, despite a run differential of -50, which is largely due to only scoring 4.08 runs per game, a rate which ranks 26th out of the 30 MLB clubs.

Kelenic’s initial delay in getting promoted had already prevented him from reaching free agency until after the 2027 season. But this second stint almost certainly prevents him from acquiring Super Two status and reaching arbitration after the 2023 season, which will suppress his earning power during his arbitration years.

With Mitch Haniger and Jake Fraley playing well, Kelenic could potentially take at-bats away from Shed Long Jr., who has limped to a subpar .188/.233/.400 line and wRC+ of 73 so far this year. If Kelenic can hit enough to stay in the mix, Seattle could be facing an outfield logjam in the future. Kyle Lewis tore his meniscus in June but was was playing well before then. And there is also the fast-approaching star prospect Julio Rodriguez, who was recently promoted to Double-A. Haniger is only controlled through 2022 and has often been mentioned as a potential trade chip for the Mariners, as they have been rebuilding in recent years. But that could change if the team continues playing well and maintains contender status.

Carlos Carrasco To Begin Rehab Assignment

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New York Mets’ right-hander Carlos Carrasco will begin a rehab assignment tonight, according to the Brooklyn Cyclones, the Mets’ High-A affiliate.

The return of a healthy Carrasco would be a huge boon to a Mets team that is gearing up for a pennant race over the season’s final months. They currently sit atop the NL East, but have both Philadelphia and Atlanta within 3.5 and 4 games, respectively. The rotation, despite an excellent front three in Jacob deGrom, Marcus Stroman and Taijuan Walker, has taken some hits with the losses of David Peterson,Jordan Yamamoto, Thomas Szapucki and Joey Lucchesi to injuries, the latter two being done for the year. As a clear contender, the Mets will surely be looking into making additions at the deadline and were recently connected to Cole Hamels. The status of Carrasco could have an impact on how aggressively the Mets pursue starting pitching.

Acquired in the offseason blockbuster that also brought over Francisco Lindor, the Mets have not yet seen Carrasco take the mound this season. The righty tore his hamstring during Spring Training and has been out since. Carrasco has been through a lot in recent years, having battled leukemia, returning healthy, being traded and then the aforementioned hamstring injury. But when on the mound, he has been a very effective starter. With Cleveland from 2014 to 2020, “Cookie” threw 1004 innings with an ERA of 3.41, K% of 28.1 and a BB% of 5.9%, and accumulated 23.4 fWAR in that span.

The Mets will surely be hoping to have that level of production back in the mix, both for this year’s stretch run and the future, as Carrasco is under contract for 2022 at $12MM, with a $14MM vesting/club option for 2023.

Rookie Radar: NL East

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MLBTR’s Jeff Todd has recently taken a look at some potential impact rookies throughout the AL Central and AL West. Steve Adams handled the NL West. Now let’s move on to the NL East, which was one of the strongest divisions in baseball in 2019, with four teams finishing .500 or above. 2020 figures to be just as competitive. Perhaps a strong rookie season could be a difference-maker for one of these teams. Who could it be? Let’s take a look at some of the contenders.

Braves

The Braves already have a crowded outfield at the big league level. But if any kind of opportunity should present itself, Cristian Pache is going to be waiting in the wings. The 21-year-old has received more praise for his defense and speed than for his offense. But his bat seemed to turn a corner in 2019. Over 433 plate appearances at Double-A, he put up a slash line of .278/.340/.474, good enough for a wRC+ of 134. His Triple-A numbers aren’t as strong, with a line of .274/.337/.411 and a wRC+ of 92. That was over a smaller sample of 105 plate appearances, though, and he was only 20 years old.

Pache could have competition in the form of fellow outfield prospect Drew Waters, who is following a similar trajectory. Waters was also 20 last year and spent the bulk of the season at Double-A, where he managed a lofty 144 wRC+. He also had a cup of coffee at Triple-A, where his wRC+ dropped to 84 at Triple-A. While both Pache and Waters while played 26 games at Triple-A, Waters dwarfed Pache in the strikeout column, 43 to 18.

On the pitching side, the Braves have a pile of young arms who are slated to be in Triple-A to start the year, fighting to be the first one to get the call. The 24-year-old Kyle Wright has electric stuff but hasn’t been able to translate it into success at the big league level yet. It’s a similar story for 22-year-old Bryse Wilson. Ian Anderson is only 21 and isn’t on the 40-man, but he has already been bumped up to Triple-A after dominating in Double-A.

Marlins

The rebuilding Marlins already have lots of promising youngsters on the roster right now, and there are more on the way. Sixto Sanchez hasn’t reached Triple-A yet, but after dominating in Double-A with a 2.53 ERA over 103 innings, it’s possible he won’t need too much time there. Same goes for Edward Cabrera, whose Double-A ERA was just a smidge higher at 2.56, though in a smaller sample of 38 2/3 innings. Evaluators are split as to which of the two should be ranked higher. If you’re the Marlins, that’s a good problem to have.

In terms of position players, the most exciting options are outfielders. Jesus Sanchez has a tremendous bat but lacks plate discipline. Monte Harrison’s defensive skills give him a decent floor. But the bat will need to take another step for him to reach his ceiling. He put up a decent line of  .274/.357/.451 in Triple-A in 2019, good enough for a wRC+ of 97, just below league average.

Mets

The Mets’ rotation took a big hit when it was announced that Noah Syndergaard will undergo Tommy John Surgery. And while they may turn to veterans like Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo to pick up the slack, they could also look to some of the rookies they have in the minors. David Peterson hasn’t reached Triple-A just yet, but he threw 116 Double-A innings in 2019, with an ERA of 4.19 and 9.47 K/9. Franklyn Kilome missed all of last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018, but he was the Mets’ fifth-best prospect at that point. Stephen Gonsalves was once a highly-touted prospect in the Twins’ system, though an injury-plagued 2019 led to them losing him to the Mets on waivers. He’s still 25 and could be a wild-card factor if he can get healthy and regain his form.

As far as position players go, shortstop Andres Gimenez is an exciting prospect (mostly because of his speed and defense). The 21-year-old swiped 66 bags from 2018-19, so the big question is how he’ll do with the bat. Gimenez spent 2019 at Double-A, slashing a mediocre .250/.309/.387, but he’s still young. And since the Mets have plenty of middle infield options such as Amed Rosario, Robinson Cano, Jeff McNeil and maybe even Jed Lowrie, it will be difficult for Gimenez to contribute as soon as 2020.

Nationals

For the Nats, the most important rookie is definitely Carter Kieboom, one of the best prospects in baseball. The infielder had an excellent 2019 at the Triple-A level, slashing .303/.409/.493 for a wRC+ of 123. The 22-year-old wasn’t able to carry those numbers into his MLB debut last season, but it was only an 11-game sample size.

With Anthony Rendon moving to California, there’s an opening for Kieboom to be the everyday third baseman. He’ll have to earn it because the Nats brought back Asdrubal Cabrera as a fallback option, but they’d surely prefer for the 22-year-old Kieboom to take the job. That would enable the Nats to use Cabrera in a utility role.

Phillies

Alec Bohm’s calling card is his bat. As a 22-year-old in 2019, he played 22 games in A-ball and produced a wRC+  of 196. In A+, he played 40 games with a wRC+ of 165. In 63 games at Double-A, the wRC+ was 146. If he can keep hitting in Triple-A, the question will be where to put him. Bohm mostly plays third, but many evaluators feel that his defense is too weak for the hot corner and suggest a move to first. The Phillies would surely love for Bohm to prove those evaluators wrong because they have Rhys Hoskins entrenched at first. Their current plan for the rest of the infield is to deploy Jean Segura at third, Didi Gregorius at short and Scott Kingery at second. But since Segura can also play shortstop or second, Bohm could nudge his way into the picture if any one of them goes down with an injury.

On the mound, the big name to watch is Spencer Howard. Despite injuries limiting his total output in 2019, he still put up great numbers when healthy. In 30 2/3 innings at Double-A, his ERA was 2.35. And Howard, 23, capped off his season with 21 1/3 innings of 2.11 ERA ball in the Arizona Fall League. The Philly rotation is a bit flimsy, with guys like Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin keeping a tenuous hold on back-end spots, so a healthy Howard could shove his way into the equation.

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