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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Los Angeles Angels

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Angels.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 15th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions:  Brian Fuentes, Bobby Abreu, Juan Rivera (re-signed), Darren Oliver (accepted arbitration)

Subtractions: Francisco Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Garret Anderson, Jon Garland, Darren O'Day.  Midseason: Casey Kotchman

The Angels were 10th in the AL last year with 4.72 runs scored per game.  GM Tony Reagins wasn't able to retain Teixeira, but Abreu for less than 3% of the guaranteed money ain't bad.  CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool suggest this team will score 5.16 runs per game in '09.  The Angels' offense is better than I realized.

If last year's run prevention holds up, the Angels project to win around 95 games.  Let's take a closer look.

The '08 rotation posted a 4.14 ERA in 1012 innings, and they've since subtracted Garland and his 4.90 mark in favor of Kelvim Escobar (once he's ready).  Throw in Dustin Moseley as the sixth man and the rotation projects around 4.10.  The problem is that Ervin Santana and John Lackey are ailing and may not combine for 56 starts again.  Still, if Santana and Lackey can combine for 300 innings the Angels should be fine.  Nobody is out for the season currently.  The Angels' toughest division rival, the Athletics, have at least as much rotation uncertainty.

Last year's bullpen posted a 3.69 ERA in 439.3 innings.  I liked the Fuentes signing.  Natural regression probably puts the bullpen closer to 4.00, but that's not too bad.

Defensively the Angels ranked 9th in the AL according to The Fielding Bible II.  They may slip a bit further without Kotchman and Teixeira at first base.

All in all I see the Angels winning 90-91 games as presently constructed.  Obviously the health of the rotation is a huge variable, but I imagine Reagins will make an acquisition if one of the injuries turns out to be major.

Bottom line: The Angels patched over their free agent losses with more affordable players in Fuentes and Abreu.  The Halos again have a strong club barring a rotation catastrophe.

Offseason In Review: New York Mets

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Mets.  Here's what we wrote about the team on October 14th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions:  Francisco Rodriguez, J.J. Putz, Sean Green, Darren O'Day, Oliver Perez (re-signed), Tim Redding, Connor Robertson, Alex Cora, Carlos Delgado (exercised option), Jeremy Reed, Cory Sullivan, Fernando Tatis (re-signed), Freddy Garcia, Casey Fossum, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Martinez, Bobby Kielty, Rob Mackowiak

Subtractions: Pedro Martinez, Moises Alou, Aaron Heilman, Duaner Sanchez, Scott Schoeneweis, Claudio Vargas, Jorge Sosa, Luis Ayala, Joe Smith, Damion Easley, Endy Chavez

Last year the Mets tied for 2nd in the NL with 4.93 runs scored per game.  Despite a similar lineup, CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool put them at 4.69 per game for '09.  Rather than any one player, the projection system sees small declines for multiple guys.  Should Omar Minaya have brought in a corner outfielder?

The rotation hasn't changed much either.  Last year's group posted a 3.98 ERA in 971 innings, 5th in the NL.  The front four of Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, Perez, and John Maine may again be followed by a revolving door of fifth starters.  This time the candidates are Hernandez, Redding, Garcia, and Jon Niese.  It's inexact, but using CHONE I have the Mets starters around a 4.20 ERA in '09.  The system does not see Santana and Pelfrey repeating their ERAs (2.53 and 3.72).

The focus of the offseason was to revamp the bullpen.  Minaya signed K-Rod and traded for Putz and Green.  These improvements should make up for any slippage by the rotation.  The Mets played strong defense in '08, and that should hold true in '09.

The bullpen should add a few wins, but will that improvement be balanced out by a slightly worse offense and rotation?  If so, the Mets are an 86 win team.

Bottom line: Minaya may not have done enough by revamping his bullpen and bringing in a new fifth starter cast.  The Mets could be players at the trade deadline.

Offseason In Review: New York Yankees

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Yankees.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 13th.

Additions: Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, Nick Swisher, Damaso Marte (re-signed), Jason Johnson, Sergio Mitre, Brett Tomko, Kevin Cash, Angel Berroa, Todd Linden, John Rodriguez.  Midseason: Xavier Nady.

Subtractions:  Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Bobby Abreu, Kyle Farnsworth, Darrell Rasner, Sidney Ponson, Wilson Betemit, Ivan Rodriguez, Chad Moeller.  Midseason: Morgan Ensberg, LaTroy Hawkins, Ross Ohlendorf

Back in October I wrote, "If the Yankees somehow sign Sabathia, Teixeira, and another starter, they'll be looking fantastic for 2009."  Well, they did that and then some.  Let's see what the spending spree will get them.

Last year's offense was unimpressive – 7th in the AL with 4.87 runs per game.  The new lineup, even with A-Rod projected to miss a quarter of the season and play at less than 100%, projects at 5.41 runs per game using CHONE and the lineup analysis tool.  That level of offense would've ranked second in the AL last year.  And that projection doesn't include Swisher, who projects to outhit Nady.

Last year's rotation posted a 4.58 ERA in 898.3 innings, with only Pettitte and Mussina making more than 20 starts.  They won't be giving starts to guys like Rasner and Ponson in 2009.  This year's group: Sabathia, Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Pettitte, Joba Chamberlain, and Phil Hughes, projects at a 3.90 ERA in 862 innings.  And Wang figures to top the projected 133 innings.

The '08 bullpen had a 3.79 ERA in 543.3 innings.  This year's group has more Marte, Bruney, and Coke and no Farnsworth, Hawkins, Ohlendorf, or Chamberlain.  CHONE says it will shake out to a cumulative 3.71 ERA for the '09 pen.  At the least, the bullpen shouldn't be worse.

The Yankees were the second-to-worst defensive team in the AL last year according to The Fielding Bible II.  They could gain 40 runs on defense by employing Teixeira and Nady over Giambi and Abreu.

All of these offseason in review pieces have skewed toward the optimistic side.  I guess I am just a glass-half-full kind of guy.  If you agree with what I wrote above and peg the Yanks for 870 runs scored and 640 allowed, that's a 105 win team.  That's extreme, but it would not surprise me to see this team win 100 games.

Bottom line: In a dream offseason for Yankees fans, Brian Cashman improved the offense, rotation, and first base defense drastically by signing three top free agents and more.

Offseason In Review: Houston Astros

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Astros.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 10th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Mike Hampton, Ivan Rodriguez, Jason Michaels, Doug Brocail (re-signed), LaTroy Hawkins (re-signed), Jose Capellan, Clay Hensley, Russ Ortiz

Subtractions: Randy Wolf, Ty Wigginton, Mark Loretta, Brad Ausmus, David Newhan.  Midseason: Shawn Chacon, Oscar Villarreal, Dave Borkowski, Jack Cassel.

The Astros' offense was an issue last year, ranking 11th in the NL with 4.42 runs per game.  Losing Wigginton hurts, but getting a full season from Lee helps.  Also, Pence and Tejada are projected to have better seasons.  And even a declining Pudge offers 100 points in slugging over Ausmus.  The end result: a lineup that will score 4.46 runs per game, using Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool and CHONE projections.  Sure, they'd score more with Wiggy at third, but in hindsight it was right to non-tender him.  You'd just like to see a better solution than Blum at the hot corner.

Coupled with last year's 743 runs allowed, the Astros would profile as a 79 win team.  Can they improve in run prevention?

Last year's starters were good for 908.3 innings of 4.56 ball.  Wolf and Chacon are gone.  Brandon Backe will start the season on the DL, and Chris Sampson may not have a chance to start again.  The Opening Day rotation of Roy Oswalt, Wandy Rodriguez, Hampton, Brian Moehler, and Ortiz projects at a similar ERA, especially if Oswalt beats the projection of a career-high 3.83 mark.  But this group does carry a lot of health risk and lacks depth.  The Astros' middle of the pack bullpen should be a little better in 2009 given the re-signings of Hawkins and Brocail and the lack of Villarreal and Borkowski.

According to The Fielding Bible II, the Astros' defense ranked 7th in the NL last year.  Less Wigginton is good for the defense, but more Matsui is bad.  Otherwise it's a similar cast of characters.

The Astros seem like a team that will be average at everything and fall a few wins short of .500.  Thinking optimistically, perhaps they can contend if everyone stays healthy while Ed Wade finds a third baseman and starting pitcher on the trade market.

Bottom line: Strapped for cash, the Astros went for bargains on the free agent market.  They don't seem to have the talent to match last year's 86 wins.

Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the White Sox.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 9th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Bartolo Colon, Dayan Viciedo, Brent Lillibridge, Jeff Marquez, Wilson Betemit, Jayson Nix, Kelvin Jimenez, Ryan Braun, Franklyn German, John Van Benschoten, Tyler Flowers, Ben Broussard, Bryan Myrow, Josh Kroeger, Michael Restovich

Subtractions: Nick Swisher, Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Juan Uribe, Ken Griffey Jr., Toby Hall, Pablo Ozuna.  Midseason: Nick Masset, Danny Richar

The '09 squad will be appreciably different, especially the offense.  How will they compare to the 4.98 runs per game scored last year?  CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool suggest 5.07 runs per game, which would again rank 5th in the AL.  This simulation has Chris Getz leading off and DeWayne Wise splitting time evenly with Brian Anderson.  Gone are the 2,075 ABs given to Cabrera, Swisher, Crede, Uribe, Griffey, and Hall.

If the White Sox score 820 runs and hold steady at last year's 729 allowed, they'll be projected to win 90 games.  Is that level of run prevention (7th in the AL) possible again?

Last year's rotation posted a 4.09 ERA in 998.3 innings, 4th in the league.  Vazquez contributed 21% of those innings, but at a 4.67 ERA.  Once again, the White Sox will have to prove projection systems wrong.  CHONE sees a Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Contreras/Colon/Richard/Marquez rotation posting a 4.91 ERA in 934 innings.  There is a good case to be made that projection systems are selling the newly-locked up Floyd short by calling for a 5.00+ ERA.  And based on gut feel it's hard to believe no one gets under Buehrle's projected 4.57 mark.  Still, it would've been nice to see the Sox add more starting depth or hang on to Vazquez.

Logan's 5.95 ERA is gone from the bullpen; the core group returns.  Projections suggest that as a whole, the pen is capable of repeating its 4.13 ERA.

Defensively, the White Sox ranked 12th of 14 AL teams according to The Fielding Bible II.  The book says the poor fielding was spread across the diamond, with above-average work only at shortstop, third base, and left field.  Fields can't match Crede at third, and the Getz/Ramirez middle infield is an unknown.  Not having Swisher and Griffey in center should help.

GM Ken Williams took a gamble dealing Vazquez, as the '09 rotation is not necessarily a strength.  As presently constructed, even with a quality offense, this team seems destined to win 84 games at best.  The standard disclaimer: the Ken Williams' White Sox have never been predictable.

Bottom line: The White Sox will again need multiple unexpected performances to repeat their 89 wins of '08.

Offseason In Review: St. Louis Cardinals

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Cardinals.  Here's what we wrote about the team on October 8th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Khalil Greene, Dennys Reyes, Trever Miller, Royce Ring, Jason LaRue (re-signed).  Midseason: Charlie Manning, Kyle Lohse extension

Subtractions: Felipe Lopez, Cesar Izturis, Braden Looper, Russ Springer, Ron Villone, Jason Isringhausen, Adam Kennedy, Tyler Johnson, Randy Flores, Aaron Miles, Mark Worrell, Luke Gregerson, Mark Mulder.  Midseason: Josh Phelps, Matt Clement, Anthony Reyes

The Cardinals needed help in the middle infield and bullpen.  GM John Mozeliak's solution was to trade for Greene and sign about $4MM worth of lefty relievers.  Many of the departed played significant roles (good or bad) last year, so the Cards may be hoping for addition by subtraction to a certain extent.

Last year's offense scored 4.81 runs per game, 4th in the NL.  Using CHONE projections and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool, the '09 lineup projects at 5.00 runs per game.  This particular simulation doesn't include Colby Rasmus, has the pitcher batting ninth, and doesn't account for time missed by Troy Glaus.  But even if Ludwick takes a step back, the team may score more runs than last year.

The '09 rotation features familiar names Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Pineiro.  The difference is that Braden Looper's 199 innings of 4.16 ball are gone, and Wainwright, Carpenter, and Pineiro will hopefully double last year's 292 combined innings.  Last year the Cards had 16 starts from Mitchell Boggs, Brad Thompson, Mike Parisi, Jaime Garcia, and Mark Mulder at a combined 7.31 ERA.  This year's backup crew seems more capable.  The 4.20 collective ERA of last year's rotation was pretty good, and if Carpenter makes a big contribution they should be able to at least match it.  The Lohse extension, signed on September 29th for four years and $41MM, doesn't look good.  On the other hand, the Cardinals are presumably still happy they have Lohse to pencil in for 33 starts.

The bullpen will be better for the losses of Villone, Isringhausen, and Flores, but they didn't do much to replace Springer.  Mozeliak did add two decent lefties, and from the right side it'll be up to youngsters Jason Motte and Chris Perez to step up.

Defensively, the Cardinals ranked 2nd in the NL according to The Fielding Bible II.  The success of the rotation will be closely tied to the team's ability to repeat its stellar defense.  The Cards figure to lose ground defensively in the middle infield, though, replacing Kennedy/Izturis with Schumaker/Greene.

With last year's run prevention the Cardinals look like an 89 win team.  The concern is that a defensive slip or rotation injury could shave 4-5 wins off that projection.

Bottom line: The Cardinals switched up their middle infield and added lefty relievers, and hope a healthy rotation can keep them in contention in '09.

Offseason In Review: Minnesota Twins

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Twins.  Here's what I wrote about them on October 6th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Joe Crede, Luis Ayala, Nick Punto (re-signed)

Subtractions: Dennys Reyes, Adam Everett.  Midseason: Mike Lamb, Livan Hernandez, Brian Bass, Juan Rincon, Craig Monroe

The Twins entered the offseason with the left side of their infield open and a desire for relief help.  They paid the market rate to retain Punto in December, and then waited out Scott Boras and signed Crede for $2.5MM in late February.  Ayala was the bullpen choice at $1.3MM.  Additionally, GM Bill Smith locked up young starter Scott Baker at a reasonable $15.25MM with an option on his first free agent year.

The Twins ranked a surprising 3rd in the AL last year with 5.09 runs per game.  Credit goes to the .340 team OBP, which included a .279 team average.  The Twins were second in the league with an .826 OPS with runners in scoring position and didn't have much power.

The '09 Twins project to score 4.79 runs per game, using CHONE projections and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool.  That would've been 9th in the AL last year.  The projection adds Crede but doesn't account for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris, who received significant playing time in '08.  Joe Mauer's injury will be a big factor, since he's a .410 OBP in the middle of their lineup.

The Twins' rotation posted a 4.32 ERA in 959 innings last year, including 206 innings of 5.64 ball from Livan Hernandez and Boof Bonser.  Note that the Twins' front four – Baker, Kevin Slowey, Francisco Liriano, and Glen Perkins – totaled only 559.6 innings last year (an average of 140 each).  This rotation should be the class of the AL Central if healthy.

The bullpen lost Dennys Reyes, but also subtracts poor performances from Bass, Bonser, and Rincon.  I still think they could've done better than Ayala.  A big year from Jose Mijares would go a long way.

Defensively, the Twins ranked 7th in the AL according to the Fielding Bible II.  Crede has the potential to make a big difference at third base; that's his main source of value.  Young played an ugly left field last year, but he still has breakout potential on both sides of the ball.  The Twins' best defensive outfield will involve Gomez in center and Denard Span in left.

The Twins allowed 745 runs last year, and as you can see there's some potential for improvement in both pitching and defense.  With the same run prevention they look like an 84 win team.  But with a healthy rotation and seasons from Crede and Mauer, 88 wins seems possible.

Bottom line: Bill Smith could've done more with the bullpen, but the Crede addition and the Twins' young pitching should keep them in contention in the AL Central.

Offseason In Review: Florida Marlins

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Marlins.  Here's what we wrote about them on October 5th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor, Kiko Calero, Jose Ceda, John Koronka,  Emilio Bonifacio, Dan Meyer

Subtractions: Mike Jacobs, Kevin Gregg, Josh Willingham, Scott Olsen, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Treanor, Mark Hendrickson, Doug Waechter, Joe Nelson, Justin Miller

The Marlins' offense features changes for 2009.  They subtracted cleanup hitter Jacobs, who supplied 32 home runs but also a .299 OBP.  Gaby Sanchez may take his place.  Outfielders Gonzalez and Willingham are gone, with their ABs to be picked up by Cameron Maybin.  And Treanor is out at catcher, with John Baker assuming full-time duties.  Last year's offense ranked 5th in the NL with 4.78 runs per game.  The '09 crew projects to score 4.51 per game, based on CHONE projections and Baseball Musings' lineup analysis tool.  Baseball Prospectus is more optimistic on Maybin; plugging in their projection brings the Fish to 4.62 runs per game.

The rotation, which posted a 4.66 ERA in 916 innings last year, will subtract the 52 starts made by Olsen and Hendrickson in favor of more innings for Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Andrew Miller, and Anibal Sanchez.  Staff ace Ricky Nolasco will get the Opening Day assignment.  These five are projected to post an aggregate ERA of 4.26, so it'll be a solid rotation if healthy.  I think the Marlins can handle the loss of Olsen, though I wasn't particularly impressed with the trade bounty received.  The trade of Olsen and Willingham was yet another Marlins salary dump.

The bullpen lost several key players, so the Marlins will need strong (and healthy) years from closer Matt Lindstrom as well as imports Nunez and Proctor.  It really wouldn't have cost much to have retained Nelson.

According to The Fielding Bible II, the Marlins' defense ranked 8th in the NL last year.  Replacing Jacobs with Sanchez would be an obvious gain.  Same goes for the addition of Maybin and subtraction of Gonzalez in the outfield (Maybin will play center). 

The Marlins allowed 767 runs last year.  Assuming the bullpen does not implode and the rotation stays semi-healthy they should be able to improve on that.  I can see the Fish winning 83-84 games again, improving in pitching and defense but losing a bit offensively.

Bottom line: It's the typical Marlins refrain: good team, imagine what they could do with a payroll.  They still have enough above-average young players where 3-4 well-timed breakouts could push them into contention. 

Offseason In Review: Toronto Blue Jays

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Blue Jays.   Here's what we wrote about the team on October 3rd.  Changes for 2009:

Additions:  Matt Clement, Mike Maroth, Ken Takahashi, Michael Barrett, Raul Chavez, Brandon Fahey, Kevin Millar, Jason Lane, Dirk Hayhurst, Adam Loewen, Rod Barajas (option exercised).  Midseason: Jose Bautista

Subtractions:  A.J. Burnett, Gregg Zaun, Brad Wilkerson.  Midseason: Matt Stairs, David Eckstein, Shannon Stewart, Kevin Mench, Frank Thomas

It was a quiet offseason for the Blue Jays, a team that won 86 games last year and might've had the talent to win 93.  Can the in-house talent push them into contention in 2009?

Let's start with the offense.  The Jays ranked 11th in the AL last year with 4.41 runs per game.  Better health should lead to some changes for '09; this year's offense projects to score 4.63 runs per game.  That, unfortunately, still would've ranked 11th in the AL.  I upgraded Snider's projection by using his PECOTA numbers and that brought us to 4.76 runs per game.

Did you know the Blue Jays led the AL last year with 610 runs allowed?  If they could score 770 runs and duplicate last year's run prevention, they'd project as a 98 win team!  I don't know how to statistically account for the Jays' high quality of competition, however.

How did Toronto manage to allow only 610 runs in 2008?  The league's best pitching and second-best defense blended to produce this result.  The defense was particularly stellar at third base and right field, and Scott Rolen and Alex Rios haven't gone anywhere.  More Marco Scutaro and less Eckstein shouldn't hurt.  And Hill seems healthy.  So maybe the Jays can repeat on defense.

The rotation is once again fronted by Roy Halladay.  But after that Burnett is gone, Jesse Litsch will regress, Dustin McGowan may not contribute, and Shaun Marcum is out for the season.  Non-Halladay Blue Jays starters had a 4.00 ERA in 2008.  It's hard to see David Purcey, Casey Janssen, Scott Richmond, Brad Mills, and Clement pulling that off, even if there is some promise in the group.  The bullpen returns the same key players, so that should be a strength again.  Had Scott Downs' elbow not started barking it might've made sense to try him in the rotation.

It would've been perfect to sign Jason Giambi to DH, as he would've been an improvement over Lind and wouldn't have upset the team's excellent defense.  Instead the Blue Jays' hopes rest on excellent performances in the rotation behind Halladay.  Even at a still-solid 715 runs allowed this club would win 86 games and miss the playoffs.

Bottom line: The Blue Jays could have been a sleeper with the addition of a decent starter and a bat, but they chose to stand pat this winter.

Offseason In Review: Arizona Diamondbacks

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Diamondbacks.  Here's what we wrote about the team on October 2nd.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Jon Garland, Felipe Lopez, Tom Gordon, Scott Schoeneweis, Bobby Korecky, Tony Clark (re-signed).  Midseason: Jon Rauch

Subtractions: Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Lyon, Juan Cruz, Randy Johnson, Chris Burke, Jeff Salazar, Edgar Gonzalez.  Midseason: Micah Owings, Emilio Bonifacio

Offensively, Lopez replacing Hudson is the main change.  As GM Josh Byrnes told Nick Piecoro, "On a given day we should have one through eight, all good hitters."  The D'Backs don't have any hitter who projects at less than a .333 OBP or less than a .400 SLG (according to CHONE).  Their lineup projects at 4.71 runs per game, better than last year's 4.44.  4.71 would've ranked sixth in the NL last year.  Plus, Drew and Upton certainly have the potential to crush their projections.

With last year's strong run prevention, the D'Backs would be in line for 87 wins.  But can they match the 706 runs they allowed in '08?

Last year's rotation posted a 3.95 ERA in 978.6 innings.  They've subtracted a full season of fine work from Johnson and a half season of bad work from Owings.  Garland and Max Scherzer will be the main replacements.  CHONE has the pair combining for a 4.60 ERA in 270 innings, most of which comes from Garland at a 5.01 ERA.  Still, that beats the 4.74 mark from Johnson and Owings combined last year.  In a perfect world it would've been Johnson over Garland, but unfortunately at the time of the Johnson negotiations the D'Backs couldn't afford him.  It would've been nice to see them stretch the budget and offer $4-5MM to the Big Unit.

The Chris Snyder extension was a smart move, and it left catcher Miguel Montero as a valuable trade chip.  Swapping him for an MLB-ready starter would be big.

As far as the bullpen goes, I think a decent year from Rauch can make up for the loss of Cruz.  Defensively, the D'Backs ranked 11th in the NL last year according to The Fielding Bible II.  Lopez is a downgrade on Hudson even if Hudson had an off year in '08.  But maybe Drew can make up the difference at short.

Since run prevention looks like a wash, 87 wins seems like a reasonable projection for the '09 D'Backs.  Drew, Upton, and Scherzer are all capable of beating forecasts and carrying this team to a 90 win season.

Bottom line: The D'Backs lost many free agents this winter, and replacing Johnson with Garland was unfortunate.  Arizona should still battle for a division title if their 3-4-5 starters are decent.

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