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Offseason In Review

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians are next in our Offseason In Review series.  Here's what we wrote about them on September 30th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Kerry Wood, Mark DeRosa, Carl Pavano, Luis Valbuena, Juan Salas, Joe Smith, Greg Aquino, Jack Cassel, Vinnie Chulk, Matt Herges, Tomo Ohka, Kirk Saarloos, Tony Graffanino, Jamey Carroll (exercised option). Midseason: Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, Zach Jackson, John Meloan, Anthony Reyes, Carlos Santana

Subtractions: Franklin Gutierrez, Juan Rincon, Matt Ginter, Jorge Julio.  Midseason: Casey Blake, Paul Byrd, C.C. Sabathia, Jason Michaels

The Indians' offense ranked 6th in the AL last year with 4.97 runs per game.  The infield was the obvious area for improvement, and GM Mark Shapiro acquired DeRosa.  CHONE projections suggest bounceback years for Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, resulting in 5.37 runs per game for Cleveland.  That level of scoring would've ranked second in the AL last year.

Defensively, The Fielding Bible II ranked the Indians third in the league last year.  Much of that run prevention came from the departed Gutierrez, however.

The Indians set out to get a closer, and Shapiro signed Wood in mid-December.  The move is risky, given Wood's injury history.  Still, he was among the best relief arms available and did not cost a draft pick.  The pen was also bolstered by the addition of sidearming groundballer Smith.

The big question for the 2009 Indians is the rotation.  Cliff Lee is the only safe bet.  They'll need Fausto Carmona to bounce back, and healthy, decent performances from Pavano and Reyes.  The Indians might've been able to get a more reliable pitcher than Pavano on a one-year deal.  There are several decent options for the fifth starter job, and Jake Westbrook should be back midseason.

If the Indians match last year's 761 runs allowed, they're a 92 win team.  But with the loss of Gutierrez's defense, regression from Lee, and no contribution from Sabathia, that's a tall order.  Still, with a middling 780 runs allowed they'd project for 90 wins.

Bottom line: Shapiro succeeded in adding an infielder and improving the bullpen.  2009 may rest on four variables: Martinez, Hafner, Pavano, and Reyes.

Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Reds.  Here's what we wrote about them on September 26th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Ramon Hernandez, Willy Taveras, Arthur Rhodes, Jonny Gomes, Aaron Fultz, Humberto Cota, Daryle Ward, Jacque Jones, Laynce Nix, Mike Lincoln (re-signed), Jerry Hairston Jr. (re-signed), David Weathers (accepted arb).  Midseason: Nick Masset, Danny Richar, Micah Owings

Subtractions: Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Gary Majewski, Matt Belisle, Ryan Freel, Corey Patterson, Paul Bako, David Ross, Javier Valentin, Jolbert Cabrera.  Midseason: Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey Jr., Todd Coffey

In September I mentioned the Reds as a sleeper candidate for '09, given their rotation depth.  Last year's front four are returning.  Bronson Arroyo, Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, and Johnny Cueto combined for a 4.38 ERA in 754.3 innings.  Even with regression from Volquez, I expect them to maintain that performance level.  Owings and Homer Bailey are strong fifth starter options.  The bar is low – Reds' fifth starters combined for a 7.47 ERA in 140 innings last year.

The bullpen was decent last year, and the loss of relief innings leader Affeldt was treated with the Rhodes signing.  Subtract out bad performances from Majewski and Coffey and the pen shouldn't be worse.

Defensively the Reds ranked dead last in the NL according to The Fielding Bible II.  The worst culprits: third base (Edwin Encarnacion), shortstop (Jeff Keppinger, Hairston), and left field (mainly Dunn).  Reports on shortstop Alex Gonzalez have been positive, and the subtraction of Dunn will help in left field.  Last September I pushed for Walt Jocketty to make an aggressive offer for Adrian Beltre, but Encarnacion will stay at the hot corner for '09.  Taveras has the tools to play a great center field and help the corner outfielders.

The Reds scored 4.35 runs per game in '08, 12th in the NL.  How will they fare in the post-Dunn/Griffey era?  Keep in mind that it's also the post-Patterson/Bako era, and the Gomes/Chris Dickerson platoon should be effective.  CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool call for 4.42 runs per game which unfortunately still would've ranked 12th last year.  This team still falls short offensively, even with strong years from the team's young sluggers.

Even if I generously put the Reds at 750 runs allowed, they project to win 77 games.  It's difficult to see this team cracking .500 as it's presently constructed.

Bottom line: The Reds' rotation looks strong, but Jocketty failed to add the needed offense.

Offseason In Review: Texas Rangers

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Rangers.  Here’s what we wrote about them on September 23rd.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Hank Blalock (exercised option), Omar Vizquel, Andruw Jones, Kris Benson, Brendan Donnelly, Eddie Guardado (re-signed), Jason Jennings, Derrick Turnbow, Greg Golson, Elizardo Ramirez, Guillermo Moscoso, Adam Melhuse

Subtractions: Milton Bradley, Ramon Vazquez, Gerald Laird, Chris Shelton, Franklyn German, Sidney Ponson (midseason), John Mayberry

GM Jon Daniels gave the middle finger to free agency this winter, signing players only on minor league deals (he did come close on Ben Sheets though).  The main offseason change was the losses of Bradley and Laird.  For Bradley the Rangers received the 44th pick in the June draft, and for Laird they snagged two pitching prospects from Detroit.

The ’08 Rangers led the AL by a wide margin with 5.56 runs scored per game.  The ’09 squad won’t match that, but CHONE projections and the lineup analysis tool suggest the team could score 5.07 per game with good health.  That would’ve ranked fourth in the league.

The problem, of course, is the pitching staff.  It was the worst in the league in ’08 and doesn’t look much better for ’09.  The Rangers have the best farm system in baseball, but advanced pitching prospects Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland can’t be expected to lead the staff as rookies.  The bullpen will have a somewhat different look in ’09, but it’s a crapshoot.

The Rangers did not profile well defensively last year, ranking 11th in the AL according to The Fielding Bible II.  There are gains to be made by switching Young to third base and using Andrus or Vizquel at shortstop.

If the Rangers allow runs like they did last year, they’re looking at 68 wins.  But just with better defense at a few positions and a couple of halfway decent starting pitching performances they could trim 100 runs allowed and win 77 games.  They still seem a long shot for .500 ball though.

Bottom line: Knowing the fruits of his top-ranked farm system won’t be realized in 2009, Jon Daniels held off on spending money this offseason.  Veterans such as Blalock, Guardado, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Frank Catalanotto, and Marlon Byrd may serve as midseason trade bait.

Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Rockies.  Here’s what we wrote about the team on September 22nd.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Alan Embree, Jason Marquis, Matt Murton, Matt Belisle, Randy Flores, Josh Fogg, Glendon Rusch (re-signed), Sal Fasano, Dan Ortmeier, Scott Podsednik (re-signed)

Subtractions: Matt Holliday, Brian Fuentes, Willy Taveras, Luis Vizcaino, Matt Herges, Mark Redman, Livan Hernandez.  Midseason: Kip Wells

The Rockies are not a rebuilding club, and I would’ve liked to see them retain Holliday for an ’09 run or at least swap him for something better.  GM Dan O’Dowd did not bring back star-level talent in return.  The Fuentes loss I understand, and the others were negligible.

The ’08 Rockies ranked 8th of 16 NL clubs with 4.61 runs per game.  As crazy as it sounds, though, it’s possible the Rockies improve to 4.86 runs per game in ’09 despite the loss of Holliday (using the trusty lineup analysis tool and CHONE projections).  Here’s why: Atkins and Tulo bouncing back, no more Taveras, and more Iannetta/Helton/Stewart/Spilborghs/Smith.  Even 4.81 runs per game would’ve ranked fourth in the NL last year.

The Rockies’ defense was poor last year – 14th in the NL according to The Fielding Bible II.  The hope is that a healthy Tulo recreates his ’07 wizardry and Hawpe is less brutal in right.

Ah, pitching.  Obviously Rockies pitchers are in a rough situation with Coors Field, but they did have strong showings from Aaron Cook and Ubaldo Jimenez.  Jeff Francis went under the knife, so it’ll be up to guys like Marquis, Jorge de la Rosa, Smith, Jason Hirsh, and Franklin Morales to post ERAs under 5.00 from the #3-5 slots.  The bullpen will need Street to fill Fuentes’ void, a healthy Taylor Buchholz, and a resurgent Manny Corpas.

If the Rockies pitch and play defense like they did last year, I have them around 77 wins for ’09.  Even if they prevent runs like they did in ’07 (their best effort of the decade) it’s still an 83 win team.

Bottom line: O’Dowd may have been right in assuming that the Rockies’ offense can withstand the loss of Holliday, but he failed to obtain the quality starting pitching the team requires.

Offseason In Review: Detroit Tigers

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Tigers.  Here’s what I wrote about them on September 18th.

Additions: Edwin Jackson, Brandon Lyon, Gerald Laird, Matt Treanor, Adam Everett, Juan Rincon, Scott Williamson, Alexis Gomez, Timo Perez

Subtractions: Edgar Renteria, Matt Joyce, Kenny Rogers, Aquilino Lopez, Todd Jones, Casey Fossum, Gary Glover, Kyle Farnsworth.  Midseason: Ivan Rodriguez

In September we were talking about the Tigers slashing payroll drastically, but they’re in the $125MM range to start ’09.  The club remains saddled with multiple bad contracts.

While the Tigers’ offense last year didn’t quite meet expectations, the team did rank fourth in the AL with 5.07 runs per game.  The ’09 lineup has new regulars Laird and Everett and will be without Joyce at the outfield corners.  Using CHONE projections and Baseball Musings’ lineup analysis tool, it seems that this crew can match last year’s performance.

The question mark remains on the runs allowed side of things.  Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski took steps to improve the team’s defense (8th in the AL last year according to the Fielding Bible II) by bringing in Everett and Laird.  Using Inge at third base all year will help as well.

The Tigers had lousy pitching last year, in both the rotation and bullpen.  Jackson is an improvement over Kenny Rogers, while Justin Verlander and Nate Robertson should bounce back to some extent (though Armando Galarraga should regress).  30 healthy starts from Jeremy Bonderman would go a long way toward solidifying this group, but it almost has to be better than the ’08 rotation.

I feel similarly about the bullpen.  Lyon is better than Todd Jones, and Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney are hopefully healthy.  The pen should be better, we can say that much.  It’s hard to predict, but if the Tigers are able to get to around 775 runs allowed they should be on track for 85-86 wins.

Bottom line: Dombrowski trimmed payroll but still made improvements to the Tigers’ defense and pitching.  If a few of the many wild cards in the rotation come through they’ll be in contention.

Offseason In Review: Atlanta Braves

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Braves.  Here’s what we wrote about them on September 18th.  The changes for 2009:

Additions: Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami, Tom Glavine (re-signed), Boone Logan, Eric O’Flaherty, David Ross, Garret Anderson, Greg Norton (re-signed), Brooks Conrad.  Midseason: Casey Kotchman, Stephen Marek

Subtractions: Mike Hampton, Will Ohman, Julian Tavarez, Chuck James, John Smoltz, Royce Ring, Ruben Gotay, Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers. Midseason: Mark Teixeira, Mark Kotsay

I’ll kick things off by annoyingly quoting myself from September:

Manager Bobby Cox expects to add two quality starters, whether via free agency or trade.  I would target Derek Lowe due to his strong health record.  He might cost $14-15MM per year.  After that I’d ink a more affordable veteran like Paul Byrd, Freddy Garcia, or Randy Wolf.  That bargain starter may come from Japan, with Koji Uehara and Kenshin Kawakami considered the top names.

Granted the market shifted, but the Braves got Lowe at exactly $15MM per and Kawakami at $23MM over three years.  On top of that GM Frank Wren added one of the game’s most reliable innings eaters in Javier Vazquez.  The Jake Peavy talks didn’t work out, but Wren shifted gears and did a great job bringing in three solid starters as well as Glavine.  Throw in Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson at midseason, and many others, and Wren turned a deficit into a surplus.  The loss of Smoltz was surprising and disappointing but not really a big deal for the 2009 Braves.

The Braves had more drama with the near-Rafael Furcal signing, but they were already respectable in the middle infield.  Anderson isn’t spectacular as the left field import, but he’ll help (and isn’t any worse than Ken Griffey Jr.).  Presumably the Braves have some cash left over for a possible midseason addition.  But using CHONE projections, their lineup projects to score a healthy 4.93 runs per game.  The Mets and Phillies tied for second in the league last year with that same figure.

The Braves should have a pretty good defense again; last year’s was rated seventh in the game in The Fielding Bible II.  Last year’s bullpen wasn’t great, but more pitchers are healthy this time around.  Overall, this looks like a 90 win team to me.

Bottom line: Despite the offseason drama, Wren assembled a deep, revamped rotation to go with an already-above average offense.  The Braves should return to their contending ways in ’09.

Offseason In Review: Oakland A’s

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the A’s.  Here’s what we wrote about the team on September 16th.  Changes for 2009:

Additions: Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera, Russ Springer, Mike Wuertz, Nomar Garciaparra, Edgar Gonzalez, Jerome Williams, Corey Wimberly, Chris Schroder, Ben Copeland, Kevin Cameron.  Midseason: Eric Patterson, Sean Gallagher, Adrian Cardenas, Josh Outman

Subtractions: Greg Smith, Emil Brown, Alan Embree, Carlos Gonzalez, Huston Street, Frank Thomas, Mike Sweeney, Donnie Murphy, Keith Foulke, Dan Meyer, Kirk Saarloos. Midseason: Joe Blanton, Rich Harden, Chad Gaudin.

The A’s had the worst offense in baseball in 2008, so GM Billy Beane added sluggers Holliday and Giambi.  They also upgraded at shortstop with Cabrera.  Last year the A’s gave over 2,100 at-bats to Bobby Crosby, Daric Barton, Jack Hannahan, Emil Brown, and Carlos Gonzalez.  Brown’s .682 OPS led the group, so subtracting or reducing the playing time of these guys will make a huge difference.

Last year the A’s scored just 4.01 runs per game, worst in the league.  I plugged CHONE projections into David Pinto’s lineup analysis tool, and their 2009 estimate is about 5.04 runs per game.  Such production would’ve ranked fifth in the AL in 2008.

Last year Oakland’s starters posted a 4.29 ERA, 7th in the AL.  From that they subtracted 204 innings of 3.97 ball provided by Joe Blanton and Rich Harden (Blanton was actually at 4.96 though).  Oakland starters have typically fared better; here’s how their ERA ranked in the AL in years past: 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 1st, 3rd.  So this was actually the A’s worst rotation this decade and it was still middle of the pack.  Even though the ’09 rotation lacks household names, Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill may emerge and Beane may again find a way to get by.

The bullpen should be solid, with Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler flanked by new additions Springer and Wuertz.  The team’s defense was very strong overall last year, and that should be the case again in ’09.

Bottom line: The remade Oakland team now has at least an average offense, and if the pitching and defense hold steady this team should win more than 90 games.

Offseason In Review: Pittsburgh Pirates

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Pirates.  Here’s what I wrote about the team on September 12th.  The changes for 2009:

Additions: Pedro Alvarez, Eric Hinske, Ramon Vazquez, Chris Bootcheck, Donald Veal, Craig Monroe, Andy Phillips, Jeff Salazar, Virgil Vasquez, Jason Jaramillo.  Midseason: Robinzon Diaz, Craig Hansen, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, Andy LaRoche, Brandon Moss, Jose Tabata

Subtractions: Doug Mientkiewicz, Jason Michaels, Luis Rivas, Chris Gomez, Ronny Paulino, Franquelis Osoria, Raul Chavez, T.J. Beam, John Van Benschoten.  Midseason: Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, Jose Bautista, Damaso Marte, Matt Morris

Extensions: Ryan Doumit, Nate McLouth, Paul Maholm

Pirates GM Neal Huntington had two main tasks this winter: test the trade market for his remaining veterans, and sign certain young players to extensions.  Adding free agents was never top priority, and the Bucs sensibly kept those commitments low.  They still could bring in a cheap veteran free agent starting pitcher like Pedro Martinez or Odalis Perez.

Much of Huntington’s veteran purge was accomplished last summer, with the trades of Bay, Nady, and Marte.  He shopped Jack Wilson this winter, but couldn’t find a match.  Hindsight being 20/20, perhaps he should’ve been more flexible in the December dealings with Detroit.  As for LaRoche, it makes sense to wait given his history of slow starts.

With the new extensions, the Pirates can have Maholm and McLouth through 2012 and Doumit through 2013.  The extensions don’t necessarily add trade value in all three cases, so hopefully the Pirates will contend in 2010, ’11, or ’12.

Bottom line: Rather than free agents, the Pirates chose to invest in their own youth this winter.  Now Huntington’s focus will be on maximizing the return for Wilson, LaRoche, and John Grabow.

Offseason In Review: Kansas City Royals

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Royals.  Here’s what I wrote about the team on September 11th.  The changes for 2009:

Additions: Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs, Juan Cruz, Kyle Farnsworth, Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Olivo (re-signed), Jamey Wright,  Horacio Ramirez, Bruce Chen, Tug Hulett, Doug Waechter, Franquelis Osoria, J.R. House

Subtractions: Mark Grudzielanek, Joey Gathright, Esteban German, Ramon Ramirez, Brett Tomko (midseason), Leo Nunez

For all of Dayton Moore’s tinkering, are the Royals any better this year?  His best move was signing Zack Greinke to an extension, but several of the other transactions were questionable.  You can say the market dropped out after the Farnsworth signing, but no one liked that commitment at the time.  Jacobs is OBP-challenged and terrible with the glove, and it’s a shame that Kila Ka’aihue won’t get a shot.  On the plus side, the acquisitions of Cruz and Crisp were solid.

Another GM might have passed on Farnsworth, Ramirez, Olivo, and Jacobs and non-tendered Mark Teahen.  That would’ve left about $15MM to spend on some combination of a middle infielder, an on-base/power bat, or a starting pitcher.  Those remain the team’s needs, if they are to sneak into contention this year.

The improvements will mainly have to come internally, which is possible.  Guillen could play like he did in ’07, and Gordon and Butler could continue to grow.  DeJesus and Aviles could mostly hold the line and the team should get more than last year’s .277/.324/.396 line at first base.  The outfield defense should be better, with DeJesus moving to left and Crisp ranging over to help Guillen.

The retooled bullpen should be fine, and maybe Brian Bannister, Luke Hochevar, and Kyle Davies can provide league average innings behind Greinke and Gil Meche.  Admittedly, that’s a lot of maybes and ifs.

Bottom line: Moore didn’t do much to augment the Royals’ OBP or rotation, so improvements will have to come from young holdovers.

Offseason In Review: Washington Nationals

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Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the Nationals.  Click here to read what I wrote about the team on September 10th.

Additions:  Adam Dunn, Scott Olsen, Josh Willingham, Daniel Cabrera, Javier Valentin, Alex Cintron, Wil Ledezma, Josh Towers, Freddie Bynum, Brad Eldred, Joel Guzman, Terrell Young, Gary Glover, Gustavo Chacin, Jorge Sosa, Jose Castillo, Corey Patterson

Subtractions: Jim Bowden, Tim Redding, Odalis Perez, Luis Ayala, Jon Rauch (midseason) Emilio Bonifacio, Felipe Lopez, Aaron Boone, Paul Lo Duca (midseason), Charlie Manning

Nationals starters tossed 880.6 innings last year, with Redding and Perez accounting for nearly 40% of that.  The Nats paid those veterans $1.85MM.  This year, they’ll spend $5.4MM on Olsen and Cabrera, younger hurlers with upside.  It’s a solid swap.  With the return of John Lannan and the emerging Jordan Zimmermann, it’s a younger, more interesting rotation.

I wrote in September:

Hopefully Jim Bowden won’t become too obsessed with Adam Dunn this winter (assuming Bowden keeps his job).  Dunn doesn’t fit on this team. They’re in the beginning of a long rebuilding process.

It turns out Bowden kept his job just long enough to sign Dunn, who probably won’t be a part of the next good Nationals team.  The money would’ve been better spent on the June draft – the Nats have the #1 and #10 picks.  The Nationals’ new GM will have to hit a home run with that draft, and may also be charged with trading Nick Johnson and signing Ryan Zimmerman long-term.

If a $20MM commitment to Dunn was Bowden’s worst winter move, though, that’s not too bad in the grand scheme of things.  And Bowden does deserve a parting gift for his acquisition of Olsen and Willingham.

Bottom line: Bowden’s out; 2009 is about finding the right GM and stocking the farm system.

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