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Carl Pavano

Interest In Pavano

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Yesterday I mentioned that Carl Pavano had his first healthy effort this spring, a major step towards a trade.  The Cards, Rockies, and Mariners have expressed interest in the past.

Today, a George King report indicates some other possible suitors.  King mentions that scouts from the Braves, Mets, and White Sox attended the game at which Pavano pitched.  Whether they were there to watch him is an open question, but it is reasonable.

A cross-town trade would be particularly interesting, although the Mets are not short on Pavano-like options.

First Step Toward Pavano Trade

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As George King writes, Carl Pavano had the chance today to show all the pitching-starved teams in baseball that he’s finally healthy.  If the Yanks will swallow $15MM or so of Pavano’s $23MM over the next two seasons, they can clear a spot for Phil Hughes and pick up a prospect.

Pavano didn’t embarrass himself or get injured facing the tough Phillies lineup this afternoon.  He faced off with Cole Hamels, allowing one run in two innings of work.  The Cardinals and Rockies have shown interest in the past, though the Rockies don’t need him with their current depth.

Tim’s take: Chance of Pavano staying healthy and getting traded by July – 40%.

Cards Hope To Woo Clemens

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UPDATE: Hendricks squashed the rumor.

The big story this morning: Walt Jocketty and co. met at length with Roger Clemens’s agent Randy Hendricks yesterday.  Other clients’ of Hendricks were the main topic, but Roger’s name came up.  Unlike this winter’s Barry Bonds rumor, Jocketty isn’t denying interest. 

The Cardinals have some extra money after missing out on various pitching targets this winter.  Clemens is quite a longshot, but it’s certainly fun to speculate.  This is the single move with the largest possible impact for St. Louis.  Adding 100 innings of the Rocket would probably improve the Cardinals by 3-4 wins, based on PECOTA’s projected WARP.  And Murray Chass just stopped reading this post.

Aside from Clemens, the Cards could pursue Carl Pavano, Jon Lieber, or Brad Penny.  Penny is the possible impact arm and of course would draw much more interest if he’s available.  His overall impact would probably be similar to that of Clemens, but the bounty is to be paid in prospects.  Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, and Chris Duncan could be targets of L.A.

Rockies Monitoring Pavano

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Troy Renck of the Denver Post reports that the Rockies are keeping a close eye on Carl Pavano’s situation in New York, prepared to swoop in if he’s pushed out.  Colorado will be scouting the 31 year-old righthander this spring. 

Renck believes the Rockies might only have to pay $10-12MM of Pavano’s remaining $22MM for the next two seasons. Dan O’Dowd could ship out Josh Fogg or Byung-Hyun Kim to further balance salaries as well as create some room for Pavano.  As it stands, the Rockies have quite a bit of starting pitching depth.  Several promising youngsters might not be able to crack the rotation this spring unless some trades are made. 

Pavano On The Trade Market

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Pretty much anyone you ask would tell you Philip Hughes is likely to outpitch Carl Pavano this year.  Any projection system or scout would tell you that the Yankees will win more games with Hughes as the fifth starter than Pavano.  Why then is Pavano, and not Hughes, penciled in as the team’s fifth starter?  The reason is that Pavano is due $23 million over the next two seasons. The Yankees want to get something out of him.

Best move for everyone would be to trade him.  Jon Heyman of SI.com tells us that the Rockies wanted the Yankees to cover $15MM of the $20MM remaining on his deal.  (Although I do believe Pavano is owed $23MM if you include his buyout).  Maybe that means Colorado would take Pavano at the price of $8MM over the next two seasons?  Who wouldn’t?  Ramon Ortiz just got three mil.  However, at this point the Rockies don’t need any more starters.

Heyman goes on to say that if Pavano can show promise this spring, the Yanks might get a team to take on $12-13MM of the money owed to Pavano.  So, the team would pay $10MM over the next two seasons.  Still not too bad, especially for an NL club looking to get creative (Cardinals?) 

Pavano is on a rigorous workout regimen in hopes of returning to a Major League mound and redeeming himself.

Pavano On The Trade Market

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Pretty much anyone you ask would tell you Philip Hughes is likely to outpitch Carl Pavano this year.  Any projection system or scout would tell you that the Yankees will win more games with Hughes as the fifth starter than Pavano.  Why then is Pavano, and not Hughes, penciled in as the team’s fifth starter?  The reason is that Pavano is due $23 million over the next two seasons. The Yankees want to get something out of him.

Best move for everyone would be to trade him.  Jon Heyman of SI.com tells us that the Rockies wanted the Yankees to cover $15MM of the $20MM remaining on his deal.  (Although I do believe Pavano is owed $23MM if you include his buyout).  Maybe that means Colorado would take Pavano at the price of $8MM over the next two seasons?  Who wouldn’t?  Ramon Ortiz just got three mil.  However, at this point the Rockies don’t need any more starters.

Heyman goes on to say that if Pavano can show promise this spring, the Yanks might get a team to take on $12-13MM of the money owed to Pavano.  So, the team would pay $10MM over the next two seasons.  Still not too bad, especially for an NL club looking to get creative (Cardinals?) 

Pavano is on a rigorous workout regimen in hopes of returning to a Major League mound and redeeming himself.

Cardinals Checking On Carl Pavano

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Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that the Cardinals are "doing some advance work to check out Carl Pavano’s physical status."  He later notes:

"PLEASE do not say something like, ’Bernie says the Cardinals are getting Pavano.’ Because I’m NOT saying that."

It sounds like the Cards are at least kicking the tires a little bit.  Pavano makes $10MM in 2007 and $11MM in 2008 with a $13MM club option for 2009 with a $1.95MM buyout.  Basically, he’s owed $23MM for his age 31-32 seasons.

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