Jeff Weaver’s Value Plunges
My best Angels source indicates that scouts from as many as eight teams were in attendance Tuesday night to watch Jeff Weaver pitch. Weaver didn’t rise to the occasion, taking his tenth loss after allowing six runs in just two innings to the Rockies.
Weaver’s been an absolute mess this year, thwarting Scott Boras’s attempt to replicate his success with Kevin Millwood. Boras didn’t find the right multiyear deal for Millwood before the 2005 season, so he settled for one year with the Indians. After Millwood had a career year, Boras got him a massive five-year contract. Weaver makes $8.3MM this year in a deal that seemed wise at the time.
The 29 year-old righty has given up a ridiculous number of hits this year in conjunction with way too many home runs. His strikeout and walk rates have remained fairly stable. Can any of his problems be attributed to team defense and/or bad luck? Weaver’s .332 BABIP exceeds his team’s .293 mark, so some of those extra hits could be random.
Another stat to check out is home runs per flyball. Ron Shandler’s work tells us that "pitchers do not have much control over the percentage of fly balls that turn into home runs." This figure tends to be about 10%, whereas Weaver is at 16.8% in 2006. That mark is the 9th worst in the game (browsing this list helps explain the unexpected misfortunes of several fine hurlers this season). Pitchers do control the number of flyballs they allow overall, and Weaver’s 2006 level does not differ dramatically from career norms.
Maybe this is a stretch, but if we substitute Weaver’s hit and HR rates with league average levels but hold everything else constant, his expected ERA comes all the way down to 3.84 with a 1.28 WHIP. That’s right about where we expected him to be this season, and it would’ve been a bargain. I have to think several teams realize that Weaver has not pitched as badly as it seems. Acquiring Weaver still makes sense for savvy teams like the Red Sox or Cardinals.
Weaver Signs With Angels
The Angels’ deal for Jeff Weaver is finalized for one year and $8.5MM, $9MM with incentives. He’ll be joining Angels pitchers and catchers in Phoenix on Thursday, according to the L.A. Times.
The article also mentions that Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras, said Weaver left better offers on the table. No doubt Boras and Weaver are trying to execute the strategy that worked so well for Kevin Millwood. The move pushes Hector Carrasco to the bullpen.
Halos Heaven Holds Steady On Weaver
The author of the Halos Heaven blog still says "the ink is dry" on Jeff Weaver‘s contract with the Angels. The blog originally reported that the announcement would be made on February 6th, and now states that negotiations over the second year have held up the deal. I know from experience that assigning a date to a rumored signing really brings out the critics if it doesn’t hold.
Anyway, I just wanted to pass along the info.
Angels Sign Weaver?
I’m not entirely familiar with the Halos Heaven blog quite yet, but the author is saying Jeff Weaver signing with the Angels is a done deal. In their words: "the ink is dry."
Also, check out the latest Manny rumor in the same post. While not quite the polar opposite of supposed offer that heavily favored the Red Sox, this one would definitely be a win for Los Angeles. But if the Angels were willing to take on Manny’s entire contract, an offer of Escobar, Shell, and Rivera plus one top Angels prospect seems equitable.
Choices Narrowing For Weaver
Back on January 12th, we were able to reason our way towards determining six possible suitors for Jeff Weaver. Here was the list:
"In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels."
Since then, the Orioles traded for Kris Benson and the Cubs signed a much cheaper option in Wade Miller. The remaining four can be re-ranked as Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Astros. You can almost cross Houston off the list; there hasn’t been talk of them pursuing Weaver as Jose Contreras remains high on their wish list.
The Los Angeles Times reports that the Angels may offer Weaver a one year contract with an option for 2007. It’d be wise for the Angels to lock in the innings eater after losing Jarrod Washburn and Paul Byrd, who combined for 381 innings in 2005.
I’d put the Angels chances of signing Weaver at 75%. The Mets really aren’t looking to take on Weaver; he may not perform under the spotlight again and isn’t significantly better than Benson (he’s maybe about one win better). The Cards would be mad to add Weaver to a rotation of Chris Carpenter, Jason Marquis, Mark Mulder, Jeff Suppan, and Sidney Ponson/Anthony Reyes. The club is wavering on starting Reyes, and he’s already better than Weaver. Weaver is barely an improvement over Marquis, so dealing him and signing Weaver would be a curious decision. I suppose it could happen if the right outfield bat came along in return for Marquis though.
More Jeff Weaver
I was wondering whether the Cardinals could fit Jeff Weaver into their payroll if they moved some parts around, and called upon Viva El Birdos to determine the answer. Lboros thoroughly dissected the issue yesterday. The verdict:
"So I guess my answer is: yes, there are knots the Cardinals could tie themselves into in order to fit Jeff Weaver into the payroll; but no, I don’t think they would be inclined to go that route."
Read the post and you’ll probably be inclined to agree.
In addition, I spoke to my Mets source today. He said the club is not interested in Weaver. Commenters in my Weaver post from the other day pointed out that with Mike Pelfrey on the fast track, there’s really no place for Weaver on the Mets.
Looks like the Orioles, Cubs, Astros, and Angels are the major players here. However, the Phillies could be in the mix given that Ryan Madson is no lock for the rotation. (This is why I love open comments – with enough smart people, all options get uncovered).
Jeff Weaver: Last Man Standing
I ranked Jeff Weaver 18th overall on my Top 50 Free Agents for 2006, and he’s easily the best remaining starting pitcher (Roger Clemens aside). After Weaver the dropoff is huge – it’s Kevin Brown or Lima Time. Kind of remains me of this, a memory I’ve been trying to repress for ten years.
For a while it seemed like Weaver was being strangely undervalued in the market. He’s a very dependable starter and he’s still 29. He’s thrown 444 innings over the past two seasons with the Dodgers, compiling a 4.11 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 6.3 K/9 during that span.
Ken Rosenthal cleared this muddy picture for us yesterday after speaking with Weaver’s agent, Scott Boras. We now know that Weaver hadn’t actually hit the market until now. Boras delayed Weaver’s release date to give the Dodgers first crack at him. It seems that a three-year contract with an option would’ve gotten the job done, but it might take four years at this point.
Last week, Weaver was looking like a potential free agent bargain in the vein of Kevin Millwood last year for the Indians. If nobody wanted to give him three years and $30MM (or whatever), he’d just take a one-year, $8MM deal or something. However, what this potential bargain has taken a 180. It’s fairly obvious that once a ton of people want something, it becomes overvalued. Such will be the case with Weaver, who has eight teams after him.
Rosenthal’s speculation on that front: the Red Sox, Cardinals, and Orioles. Let’s expand on that and try to nail the possibilities.
Orioles – Given Weaver’s recent durability, we know Peter Angelos’s injury hangups probably won’t come into play here. And let’s not rule out the ballclub just because Angelos and Boras aren’t best buddies. The club talks to all agents and is a good fit for Weaver.
Red Sox – I can’t help but doubt the Sox want to bring Weaver back into the AL East. His 5.99 ERA with the Yankees in ’03 looms large.
Tigers – No one seems to think the Tigers would bring Weaver back. Their rotation is pretty much set anyway.
Angels – Maybe he’d love to play with his brother Jered one day, et cetera et cetera. This is cited as a pretty big reason for the Angels to be in play, but a lot of us thought the Braves would end up with Brian Giles for the same reason. According to Bill Stoneman, signing Weaver is "not a likely thing."
Mets – Sure, why not? Pedro, Glavine, Weaver, Benson, Trachsel. You could do worse.
Phillies – Let’s see how this rotation looks so far: Lieber, Lidle, Madson, Myers, Ryan Franklin. I think they’re set, especially with a few options in-house for replacements.
Nationals – It’s looking like they’re going with John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Ramon Ortiz, Brian Lawrence, and Tony Armas. Ryan Drese is floating around as well. I know they’re mentioned as a main suitor, but I don’t see it.
Cubs – Certainly seems like a legit possibility. No Boras reservations. Possible rotation: Zambrano, Prior, Maddux, Wood, Jerome Williams. Not counting on Wood probably means Glendon Rusch or Rich Hill though. Despite the surplus, the Cubs have been making noise about adding another starter. Perhaps Williams would be dealt (although this seems like an unwise course of action to me).
Astros – Weaver would definitely solidify things and relieve their dependency on Roger Clemens.
Cardinals – They will be going with Carpenter, Mulder, Suppan, Marquis, and Reyes in the rotation. If Marquis is traded and Ponson does not take his spot, it would make sense to add Weaver to the mix. After all, Jocketty has pursued Javier Vazquez, Matt Morris, and A.J. Burnett this winter. Perhaps the Cardinal faithful can tell us whether he’d fit into the payroll.
Diamondbacks – No plans to pursue Weaver, according to Josh Byrnes.
I think that pretty much sums it up. In order of likelihood, Orioles, Cardinals, Mets, Cubs, Astros, Angels. Just my best guess. I’d like to hear your thoughts in the comments.