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Archives for August 2008

Rockies Intensify Search For Fifth Starter

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The Rockies and Pirates were in discussions about starter Ian Snell before the non-waiver trade deadline, but Pittsburgh’s asking price of Franklin Morales was to high for the Rox to match, effectively killing the deal.

After another bad outing from one of their starters this week, however, and knowing they will look for a fifth starter via the waiver wire, the Rockies may have to revisit the Snell talks, as Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post thinks he would’ve been a "tantalizing option;" Renck also mentions Josh Fogg as an alternative for the Rox.

Fogg pitched for the Rockies in 2006 and Snell drew some interest from the Mets before the deadline.

Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Post-deadline rumors? Comments? alexo05 [at] umpbump [daught] com.

Keith Law’s Latest: Players On The Move

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Keith Law drops some science on some big name players that could still be on the move if they clear waivers. To wit:

Paul Byrd: Law argues that Byrd would be better served pitching in the National League where a "finesse" hurler like him would have an easier time. Byrd was a Type B free agent in 2007, which means he could slip to non-compensation status this year, an incentive for the Indians to try and trade him if he clears waivers.

Greg Maddux: The Bulldog will only waive his no-trade clause for a team on the West Coast, meaning it’s the Dodgers or the Dodgers. The Padres tried to make a deal with L.A. prior to the deadline, but it fell through.

Andruw Jones/Juan Pierre: Speaking of the Dodgers, Law thinks that both Pierre and Jones would sail through waivers due to their hefty salaries and bad performance at the plate.

Aubrey Huff: Ditto for Huff, who’s owed more than $10MM between now and the end of his contract in 2009.

Law makes the case that Brian Fuentes and Adam Dunn would not clear waivers. It’s no secret Fuentes was one of the most coveted relievers before the deadline, but the Rockies were holding out for the perfect offer that never came (never mind that they’re showing signs of life in a mediocre NL West).

Dunn should still draw interest from teams looking for a corner outfielder that can hit .385/.550, argues Law, and a direct rival could place a claim on Dunn to make sure other contending teams don’t.

Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Post-deadline rumors? Comments? alexo05 [at] umpbump [daught] com.

Odds And Ends: Royals, Rockies, Rhodes, Braves

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Let’s round up some remaining links in this lazy Saturday afternoon:

  • The Royals DFA’d Yasuhiko Yabuta. The White Sox had tried to sign the Japanese reliever last winter but were unsuccessful. Yabuta was 1-3 with a 5.46 ERA and had signed a two-year, $6MM deal with Kansas City.
  • The Rockies tried desperately to acquire a fifth starter before the non-waiver deadline but couldn’t match-up with the Mariners for Jarrod Washburn or the Nationals for Tim Redding; and Paul Byrd had Colorado on his no-trade list. The Rockies will continue to look for a starter via waiver wire claims.
  • Arthur Rhodes was shocked when he learned he had been traded to the Marlins. ”There had been a lot of talk about me being traded to a couple of other teams, but I guess Florida wanted me more."
  • The Braves DFA’d back-up catcher Corky Miller yesterday, and Royce Ring today.
  • Also today (and in that Ring link), the Astros DFA’d Chad Paronto.

Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Post-deadline rumors? Comments? alexo05 [at] umpbump [daught] com.

Manny Wanted To Stay?

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The never-ending soap opera that was Manny Ramirez in a Red Sox uniform has one final gasp this morning. Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe is reporting that an hour after the trade had been completed and the veteran had been informed he was L.A.-bound, Manny’s agent, Scott Boras, called the Sox with one final offering:

"If the Sox dropped the option years on his contract – which they had agreed to do if they traded him – Boras said Ramírez would not be a problem the rest of the season."

We now know (obviously) that the response from the Red Sox front office was negative, and there’s no question that this move was, at the very least, instigated by Boras. Keep in mind that Manny’s contract with the Sox was not of Boras’ design as he was hired by the slugger in February.

For the record, Boras denied pulling strings in the Manny deal.

Alejandro A. Leal writes for UmpBump.com. Post-deadline rumors? Comments? alexo05 [at] umpbump [daught] com.

Livan Hernandez To Be Designated

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3:25pm: Joe Christensen says both Hernandez and Craig Monroe will likely be DFA’d today. Both were questionable acquisitions from Day 1.  Francisco Liriano and Randy Ruiz will join the Twins.

8:23am: According to La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, the Twins are expected to designate Livan Hernandez for assignment today to make room for Francisco Liriano.  The Twins are prepared to eat the remaining $1.66MM on Hernandez’s contract.

It’s the right move, just several weeks too late.  Hernandez turned into a pumpkin in late May, while Liriano has been on a tear for about a month.

It seems that the Twins may have been looking to trade Boof Bonser to clear a spot for Liriano.  Talks with the Giants and Rangers did not pan out however.

Phillies Come Up Empty At Deadline

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Phillies GM Pat Gillick wanted to pick up one more starting pitcher, a lefthanded reliever, and maybe a hitter (Manny Ramirez) before yesterday’s deadline, but he did not make a deal. 

Gillick told Todd Zolecki of the Philadelphia Inquirer that he was close on a three-team deal that would’ve brought a #4-type starter to the Phillies.  He had an agreement with one of the other two teams.  Gillick believes this mystery starter will not clear waivers this month.  It’s unclear who the starter would’ve replaced, since Gillick already picked up Joe Blanton.  Maybe Brett Myers was in the failed deal.

Tossing out a few #4-type starters who may have been available: Tim Redding, Odalis Perez, Jason Marquis, Jarrod Washburn, Paul Byrd, Josh Fogg, and Livan Hernandez.  Which is these pitchers wouldn’t make it through waivers?  Perhaps Redding, Perez, and Fogg on account of their low salaries.  Doesn’t seem like Gillick would’ve needed to involve a third team to get any of them though.  Anyone have any guesses?

Waiver Trade Explanations

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Trades can be made in August; it’s just that the rules are more complicated and limiting.  Here are some helpful links.

  • MLBTR’s post on waiver trade rules from ’06, based on a Steve Phillips article.
  • Paul DePodesta explains the rules further on his blog.
  • Eric Seidman offers a waiver wire primer at FanGraphs.
  • In the near future we’ll definitely be discussing all the high-salaried waiver trade candidates for August.

Trade Deadline Reactions

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Trade deadline reactions are all over the web today, as you might expect.  Keep checking back to this thread – I will continually add to it.

  • ESPN’s Jayson Stark provides his winners and losers.  SI.com’s Jon Heyman does the same here.  Seems like there’s some debate on the Red Sox.  Both journalists agree on the Pirates, Marlins and Rays as losers and the Dodgers and Yankees as winners.  Ken Rosenthal sees the Red Sox, Dodgers, and Pirates all as winners. 
  • Keith Law has been analyzing every trade for ESPN.
  • Deadspin opines on Jon Heyman’s apparent scoop of the Manny trade over ESPN.  To be fair, though, ESPN scooped the Mark Teixeira and Ivan Rodriguez trades.  Ken Rosenthal at FOX had the Ken Griffey Jr. scoop.  And all three big guys were careful about putting out bad information, which can’t be said for every outlet.
  • South Side Sox doesn’t like the Ken Griffey Jr. acquisition.  Sox Machine insists Griffey cannot play center field.
  • Ken Davidoff’s winners and losers.  You have to give him credit for standing alone and calling the Yankees losers.
  • Joel Sherman brings us inside the whirlwind trade talks yesterday between the Red Sox, Pirates, Dodgers, and Marlins.  The Marlins were willing to trade Jeremy Hermida and then some for a couple of months of Manny…something to keep in mind.
  • David Lennon discusses the high prices being asked of the Mets for Manny Ramirez and Jason Bay.
  • Every year around this time, there’s some pining for "trade rumor batting averages" for each journalist.  I don’t believe this can be done.  We might be able to keep track of those who jumped the gun with "done deals," or those who snagged scoops.  But if a journalist says ten teams are interested in Brian Fuentes but the pitcher stays put, that journalist may have been 100% accurate.  We will never have perfect information.  I don’t buy the lazy line that writers make stuff up or 99% of rumors are untrue.  I believe that journalists claiming inside information actually did hear it from someone inside the game.  Keep in mind that execs can put bad info into circulation too.

Players Not Traded

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Assigning contender status is subjective, but I’m going to say that the following teams are not in the playoff mix: the Orioles, Royals, Indians, Mariners, Braves, Nationals, Reds, Astros, Pirates, Giants, and Padres.  The Blue Jays and Athletics just missed the cut as fringe wild card contenders.  With those 11 non-contenders in mind, let’s take a look at players not traded at the ’08 non-waiver deadline.

  • Orioles: Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Brian Roberts, Jay Payton, Jamie Walker, Kevin Millar, Chad Bradford, George Sherrill.  Millar and Payton are free agents after the season, but there probably wasn’t much of a market for either.  The rest are under team control through at least ’09, so Andy MacPhail still has time to find the right deal; read his comments here.  Hernandez is an August trade candidate.
  • Royals: Jose Guillen, Mark Grudzielanek, Ron Mahay, David DeJesus, Miguel Olivo.  Moving the Guillen contract would’ve made sense, but we don’t know whether that was on the table.  Kind of surprised to see Grudz still around.  Mahay could be an offseason move, but the Royals might just want him for ’09.  DeJesus’ name will probably come up at the Winter Meetings.
  • Indians: Paul Byrd, David Dellucci, Jamey Carroll.  Only Byrd was thought to generate a bit of interest.  He could go in August.
  • Mariners: Adrian Beltre, Jarrod Washburn, Raul Ibanez.  The Ms still have time to move Beltre and Washburn if they feel so inclined.  Ibanez is a possible Type A free agent, so the Mariners asked for a lot.  Jayson Stark spoke to teams who characterized the Ms demands as "outrageous" in general.  Geoff Baker gives his take on the Mariners’ deadline day.
  • Braves: Mark Kotsay, Will Ohman.  Wouldn’t be surprising to see Kotsay moved this month.  Ohman we discussed here.
  • Nationals: Austin Kearns, Dmitri Young, Cristian Guzman, Luis Ayala, Ron Belliard, Tim Redding, Odalis Perez.  Some of these players have little trade value, while the Nationals prefer to keep others for ’09.
  • Reds: Adam Dunn, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Affeldt, David Weathers, David Ross, Josh Fogg, Paul Bako.  It seems that the offers just weren’t there for Dunn, who should net a pair of draft picks unless the Reds are gunshy about offering arbitration.  I’m surprised Weathers and Fogg weren’t moved.
  • Astros: Miguel Tejada, Randy Wolf, Jose Valverde, Ty Wigginton, Mark Loretta, Doug Brocail, Geoff Geary.  The ’Stros are acting like contenders.  The worst outcome for fans would be if Wolf and LaTroy Hawkins add a few wins and worsen the team’s ’09 draft position.
  • Pirates: Jack Wilson, John Grabow, Doug Mientkiewicz.  The Pirates were quite active, and could still trade Wilson and Grabow this winter.
  • Giants: Randy Winn, Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina, Rich Aurilia, Tyler Walker, Jack Taschner.  Winn and Roberts are August trade candidates.  The others might’ve made sense to trade.
  • Padres: Greg Maddux, Brian Giles, Khalil Greene, Josh Bard.  Maddux, with just one possible suitor, couldn’t be moved.  Keeping Giles and Bard around makes sense for ’09, while trading Greene now would be selling low.  The Padres did talk to seven different teams in the last few days.

Braves Elect To Keep Will Ohman

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J.C. Bradbury asks this morning whether the Braves overvalued lefty reliever Will Ohman.  Roughly ten teams had interest in him, but the Braves elected not to trade him.

The Braves’ reason for keeping Ohman is that in their opinion no offer exceeded the value of the draft pick they might receive if he leaves via free agency.  Here’s a refresher on how free agent compensation works.

A couple of things need to happen for Ohman to net the Braves even one supplemental draft pick.  First, he needs to achieve Type B status.  As you know, Eddie Bajek is attempting to reverse-engineer the Elias rankings.  He doesn’t have a good line on Ohman’s projected status yet, but Bajek told me the reliever rankings are ridiculously sensitive to wins.  He expects Ohman to be classified as Type B, but he could also fall below that (in which case there’d be no draft pick compensation).

Furthermore, the Braves would have to offer Ohman arbitration and have him decline and sign elsewhere.  Offering arbitration means the Braves could be stuck paying him $2-3MM for ’09 if he accepts.  We saw several teams take this gamble and lose last year.  The Braves were smart about Andruw Jones, not offering him arbitration for fear he might accept.

Ohman might decide to accept an offer of arbitration.  Maybe he sees a similar lefty like Jeremy Affeldt, who wanted four years and got one from the Reds.  So just keep in mind that a lot of things need to happen for the Braves to get draft pick compensation for Ohman next year.

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