Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox
Next up in our Offseason In Review series, the White Sox. Here's what we wrote about them on October 9th. Changes for 2009:
Additions: Bartolo Colon, Dayan Viciedo, Brent Lillibridge, Jeff Marquez, Wilson Betemit, Jayson Nix, Kelvin Jimenez, Ryan Braun, Franklyn German, John Van Benschoten, Tyler Flowers, Ben Broussard, Bryan Myrow, Josh Kroeger, Michael Restovich
Subtractions: Nick Swisher, Javier Vazquez, Boone Logan, Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Juan Uribe, Ken Griffey Jr., Toby Hall, Pablo Ozuna. Midseason: Nick Masset, Danny Richar
The '09 squad will be appreciably different, especially the offense. How will they compare to the 4.98 runs per game scored last year? CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool suggest 5.07 runs per game, which would again rank 5th in the AL. This simulation has Chris Getz leading off and DeWayne Wise splitting time evenly with Brian Anderson. Gone are the 2,075 ABs given to Cabrera, Swisher, Crede, Uribe, Griffey, and Hall.
If the White Sox score 820 runs and hold steady at last year's 729 allowed, they'll be projected to win 90 games. Is that level of run prevention (7th in the AL) possible again?
Last year's rotation posted a 4.09 ERA in 998.3 innings, 4th in the league. Vazquez contributed 21% of those innings, but at a 4.67 ERA. Once again, the White Sox will have to prove projection systems wrong. CHONE sees a Buehrle/Danks/Floyd/Contreras/Colon/Richard/Marquez rotation posting a 4.91 ERA in 934 innings. There is a good case to be made that projection systems are selling the newly-locked up Floyd short by calling for a 5.00+ ERA. And based on gut feel it's hard to believe no one gets under Buehrle's projected 4.57 mark. Still, it would've been nice to see the Sox add more starting depth or hang on to Vazquez.
Logan's 5.95 ERA is gone from the bullpen; the core group returns. Projections suggest that as a whole, the pen is capable of repeating its 4.13 ERA.
Defensively, the White Sox ranked 12th of 14 AL teams according to The Fielding Bible II. The book says the poor fielding was spread across the diamond, with above-average work only at shortstop, third base, and left field. Fields can't match Crede at third, and the Getz/Ramirez middle infield is an unknown. Not having Swisher and Griffey in center should help.
GM Ken Williams took a gamble dealing Vazquez, as the '09 rotation is not necessarily a strength. As presently constructed, even with a quality offense, this team seems destined to win 84 games at best. The standard disclaimer: the Ken Williams' White Sox have never been predictable.
Bottom line: The White Sox will again need multiple unexpected performances to repeat their 89 wins of '08.
Odds & Ends: Strasburg, Cabrera, Waivers
Links for Friday…
- RotoAuthority asks: who is the next Carlos Quentin?
- The Cubs may trade or lose whoever doesn't win their backup catcher job, Paul Bako or Koyie Hill (according to Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). By the way, Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker says the Cubs signed a Korean high school outfielder named Don-Yeop Kim.
- Hanley Ramirez was upset about the Marlins' new hair and jewelry policies, but cooled down after meeting with the team's brass.
- Excellent Stephen Strasburg profile by Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated (hat tip to Rob Neyer).
- Rays Index talked to Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- Murray Chass believes suggestions of hostility between the players union and owners are misguided.
- A's shortstop Orlando Cabrera talked to Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle about how his reputation unfairly took a hit last year.
- Bart Given explains the four types of waivers.
Moorad Takes Over Padres
The sale of the Padres to a group led by Jeff Moorad may take several years to complete, but Moorad is now running the team according to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Moorad's group owns 35% of the team currently.
Moorad plans to invest in the draft, but he wouldn't commit to anything regarding the team's payroll. Tom Krasovic of the Union-Tribune sums up the contracts Moorad will inherit in the front office:
GM Kevin Towers, whose salary is well within the Top 10 among GMs, is under contract through 2010. Executive vice president Paul DePodesta, who had reported to Sandy Alderson, is guaranteed an average well above $500,000 per year through 2011. Director of player development and scouting Grady Fuson, who was hired by Towers in early 2005, is under contract through 2010. As for manager Bud Black, he is in the final year of his contract.
What about Jake Peavy? Moorad told Center:
"It would be premature for me to say what is going to happen. The goal is to build this for the long term. I don't know how that impacts the Peavy situation. But we're going to do whatever we can to improve the team."
Holden Kushner of XM Radio snagged more Moorad comments on Peavy:
"Peavy has been a terrific performer for the club at the same time I don't think any player is untouchable. I think at some point I am sure Kevin Towers and I will visit about the issue and Kevin will have a point of view and frankly I'll defer to it. I certainly want to be kept informed but I think Kevin will have a perspective on the Peavy situation and I really looking forward hearing it."
Gammons On Pitching Shortages
The theme of Peter Gammons' latest blog post: almost every team needs pitching. One GM told Gammons, "Other than the Yankees, Rays, Red Sox, Reds, Marlins and Twins, everyone is looking for pitching, at least affordable pitching." Most of the clubs with possible surpluses are thought to be hoarding arms.
Gammons talked to an NL GM who commented on the Red Sox:
"There are a lot of teams sniffing around on guys like Manny Delcarmen and Ramon Ramirez. But they want a premium young catcher or bat in return. When they're ready to bring Clay Buchholz and John Smoltz into the equation, they may be dealing from a position of strength because of their pitching depth and the fact that they are so far under budget."
My opinion – a pitching surplus often turns into a deficit in the course of a month or two.
White Sox Likely To Stay In-House For Center Field
On Wednesday Ken Rosenthal said available Yankees center fielder Melky Cabrera "would be a perfect fit for the White Sox." Rosenthal originally had the Sox interested in Gary Matthews Jr., but updated his column saying that a source refuted the item.
Manager Ozzie Guillen wants to stay in-house for center field, according to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune:
"No, we're not going (outside the organization). I don't want that to happen. I don't like that to happen. If we have to go outside the organization right now, gosh, I'm not going to say we're in trouble. But as a ballclub, we have enough guys here to resolve that problem."
Currently the contenders are Jerry Owens, Brian Anderson, and DeWayne Wise.
Pirates Ramp Up Interest In Ohman
According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates have ramped up their interest in free agent lefty Will Ohman. The Bucs made an offer Saturday for one year plus an option, and Ohman's agent countered yesterday. Ohman's still looking for a $2MM salary. Dialogue is ongoing with the Pirates.
Kovacevic names a slew of other teams in on Ohman: the Giants, Dodgers, Marlins, Nationals, and Indians. He says the Nats and Indians are new to the mix.
My opinion – it'd be odd to see the Nationals sign Ohman after Joe Beimel, but they could be trying to build up a trade surplus. The Pirates would have one given the presence of John Grabow.
Lackey Talks On Life Support
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times, talks between John Lackey and the Angels for a contract extension "appear to be on life support." Lackey wants five years and $80-90MM, and doesn't want to negotiate during the season. Complicating matters, Lackey was just shut down with elbow tightness.
Lackey figures to be the best available free agent starter, assuming he doesn't sign and recovers quickly from the injury. Kelvim Escobar's contract will also be up, while Joe Saunders and Jered Weaver will be arbitration-eligible for the first time. The Halos may need to sign a free agent starter or two; here's a look at the possible market.
Odds & Ends: Wieters, Padres, Peavy, Price
LInks for Thursday…
- Chico Harlan of the Washington Post says the Nationals will honor a handshake agreement Dmitri Young made with Jim Bowden, and put the first baseman back on the 40-man roster.
- Catcher Matt Wieters has been told by the Orioles that he'll be optioned to Triple A on Monday, according to Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun. Will the Orioles wait until late May to try to avoid Super Two status?
- Reds assistant GM Bob Miller talked to fans in an MLB.com Q&A.
- Check out an entertaining chat transcript with Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times over at Halos Heaven.
- Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star interviewed Zack Greinke.
- Rangers owner Tom Hicks told Richard Durrett of the Dallas Morning News that the team has not reduced its budget for 2010. The Rangers have yet to set next year's budget, but it's known that some big salaries will be coming off the books. Meanwhile, MLB.com's Barry Bloom notes that Hicks intends to sell a minority share of the team.
- Rays exec Andrew Friedman said the team's demotion of David Price was entirely for baseball reasons, talking to Marc Topkin of the St. Petersburg Times. R.J. Anderson of DRays Bay supports the decision. Bart Given agrees.
- Tom Haudricourt and Adam McCalvy write about Brewers GM Doug Melvin's irritation with the bogus Jake Peavy rumor.
- Purely speculative, but Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel wonders if Dontrelle Willis could get his career back on track with the Marlins.
- Rockies infielder Jeff Baker, unaffected by the trade rumors, homered twice yesterday.
- John Moores says the Padres sale to Jeff Moorad is "awfully close," talking to MLB.com's Barry Bloom. As you know, Sandy Alderson will step down as CEO when the deal closes (possibly today).
- Padres pitcher Shawn Hill had offers from six teams, according to MLB.com's Corey Brock.
- The Red Sox signed reliever Rocky Cherry to a minor league deal.
- MLB.com's Alyson Footer says reliever Danny Graves asked for and received his release from the Astros.
Indians Claim Jae Kuk Ryu
According to MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince, the Indians claimed righty Jae Kuk Ryu off waivers from the Padres today. Ryu had arthroscopic elbow surgery in July. No offense to Ryu, but it's not a good sign when the pitching-starved Padres don't have room for you.
Boras Blast From The Past: Bill Caudill
We're starting up a new feature here at MLB Trade Rumors called Boras Blast From The Past. Basically we'll dig into the history of super-agent Scott Boras for interesting stories.
Today let's talk about Bill Caudill, Boras' first client. Caudill was a 28 year-old righty reliever coming off an All-Star 1984 season for Oakland in which he posted a 2.71 ERA in 96.3 innings. The A's traded Caudill to the Blue Jays in December of that year. Boras was 33 years old at the time and set out to negotiate a long-term contract for Caudill, a former minor league teammate.
Boras came out of the gate seeking $1.3MM a year, according to Steve Nidetz of the Chicago Tribune in '85:
The Toronto Blue Jays are balking at paying former Cubs' reliever Bill Caudill $1.3 million a year, but, according to Caudill's agent Scott Boras, Lloyd's of London is impressed enough by his client's season last year that it has agreed to double his insurance policy to $3 million. "They just estimate Bill's relative value and they assess it," said Boras. But, ask the Blue
Jays, can Lloyd's insure wins and saves?
Boras negotiated a five-year deal worth $7MM guaranteed for Caudill with the Blue Jays, minutes before an arbitration hearing was to take place. Pat Gillick was GM at the time. A Financial Post article from '85 said, "With special incentives he could earn as much as $750K more per year. Boras's economic advisers feel that $8.7 million is an accurate value of the pact." An article in the Chicago Tribune in February of '85 states, "Caudill's agent, Steve Boras, said the contract was worth more than $1.3 million a year." Yes, they called him Steve Boras.
Boras also came up with a new idea to maximize Caudill's endorsement possibilities. In fact, endorsements were a major reason Caudill signed with the Blue Jays and he even put out a line of clothing in Canada. From the Post article:
Since the rights to the team logo (which is on the uniform) are owned by the team, Boras had it written into Caudill's contract that he could appear in the uniform for endorsement, promotional and commercial purposes as long as the Jays give prior consent.
The Caudill contract started this trend, but Jays exec Paul Beeston admitted at the time that they probably wouldn't prevent other players from endorsing products in uniform if the team approved. Even with his first client, Boras had visions of grandeur. He described Caudill's goals as "To be remembered as the first player who brought a World Series to Canada, and to put the city of Toronto officially on the baseball map."
Caudill pitched well in his first season for the Jays (1985), posting a 2.99 ERA in 69.3 innings (and that was amid a death threat over the size of his contract, according to John Robertson of the Toronto Star). But he struggled in '86, posting a 5.19 ERA over his first 17.3 innings. It was at that point that Boras pulled the following stunt, according to Sports Illustrated:
An airplane passed over Toronoto's Exhibition Stadium on June 25 carrying the following message: JIMY — GIVE CAUDILL THE BALL. The hint to Blue Jays manager Jimy Williams was paid for by Bill Caudill's agent, Scott Boras.
Williams did not give Caudill the ball that day, and he posted a 6.19 ERA on the season. The following offseason Boras told Neil MacCarl of the Toronto Star that a new changeup, better conditioning, and a visit to Dr. Frank Jobe would result in a return to form. On April Fool's Day of 1987, however, the Blue Jays released Caudill and ate his remaining $3.3MM. He signed with the A's but didn't make it through that season, retiring with elbow and shoulder problems. Caudill now works as a scout for Boras.