Zack Greinke

The Royals have made a pair of relatively low-cost additions to their rotation this offseason. Ryan Yarbrough inked a $3MM guarantee in mid-December, while Jordan Lyles secured a two-year, $17MM commitment a couple weeks later.

Those veteran starters join younger, in-house hurlers like Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Max Castillo and Kris Bubic in the rotation mix for first-year skipper Matt Quatraro. It also raises the possibility that Kansas City’s top free agent of the winter, Zack Greinke, heads elsewhere. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reports that while Kansas City remains open to bringing Grienke back, the six-time All-Star would likely have to take an incentive-laden contract to return. Such a deal would have a relatively low base salary that’d allow him to unlock bonuses at various innings thresholds.

At the start of November, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported that Greinke was planning to return to the majors for a 20th season. Heyman wrote at the time Kansas City was hoping to bring the former Cy Young winner back. There was no indication then anything between the Royals and Greinke’s representatives at Excel Sports Management was close. No other team has been substantively linked to the right-hander throughout the offseason.

Greinke began his professional career with K.C. as the sixth overall pick in the 2002 draft. He starred in Kansas City not long after debuting at age 20 in 2004, going on to win the Cy Young after leading the majors with a 2.16 ERA a few years later. Greinke spent parts of seven seasons with the Royals before being dealt to the Brewers in a 2010-11 offseason blockbuster. He’d spend the next decade solidifying a strong Hall of Fame résumé while pitching for Milwaukee, the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to free agency last winter.

Kansas City brought Greinke back on a one-year, $13MM guarantee that contained an additional $2MM in potential incentives. Teams like the Twins and Tigers reportedly showed strong interest as well, but Greinke relished the opportunity to return to his original organization.

During his return season to Kaufmann Stadium, the 39-year-old threw 137 innings over 26 starts. He posted a solid 3.68 ERA, largely on the strength of his typically excellent control. Greinke only walked 4.6% of batters faced, the 13th-lowest mark among 140 pitchers with 100+ innings. No pitcher within that group had a lower strikeout percentage than Greinke’s 12.5% rate, while his 7.3% striking strike rate is fourth from the bottom. Greinke’s fastball now sits around 89 MPH and he’s a pitch-to-contact control artist.

While he’s now best suited for back-of-the-rotation work, there’s little question Greinke is still a major league caliber hurler. He hasn’t had an ERA above 4.16 in any of the last six seasons. He had a pair of injured list stints related to forearm discomfort last year but still managed to top 25 starts for the 14th consecutive 162-game season. On top of the value he could bring to younger pitchers in the clubhouse, he remains a solid innings eater for teams seeking to bolster their back end.

Kansas City could fit Greinke onto the roster even after bringing in Yarbrough and Lyles. Only Singer has firmly seized a rotation role among the team’s young starters. Yarbrough has struggled for the past couple seasons and could fairly easily move to long relief himself. The bigger question seems to be finances. The Royals presently project for a payroll in the $86MM range, per Roster Resource. Cot’s Baseball Contracts pegged them around $95MM to start last season, but K.C. general manager J.J. Picollo indicated at the outset of the offseason the club was dealing with budgetary limitations.

Greinke is one of the top starters who remains unsigned. Aside from Michael Wacha, no free agent starter who hasn’t agreed to terms is coming off a better 2022 campaign. Perhaps Greinke is willing to take an incentive-laden deal to return to K.C. — particularly given his strong track record of staying healthy and amassing plenty of innings — but Rosenthal’s report suggests it wouldn’t be a surprise if another club is willing to beat whatever guarantee the Royals put on the table.

Former Cy Young award-winner Zack Greinke is expected to pitch in 2023, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman adds that the Royals are interested in a reunion for what would be Greinke’s age-39 season.

Greinke is the active career leader in innings pitched, having logged 3,247 innings over 19 seasons as a big leaguer. He has already put himself squarely within Hall of Fame consideration, having already amassed 223 wins and 2,882 strikeouts. If Greinke does return for a 20th season, he will give himself a chance to become the 20th player to strike out 3,000 batters. The odds of Greinke becoming a member of the 3,000 K club seem slim, however, as he will have to fan 118 batters, whereas he only punched out 73 in a full season of work last year.

Milestones aside, Greinke has proven he can still be an effective starter well into his late-30’s. In 26 starts during 2022, Greinke posted a 3.68 ERA. Though Greinke averages only 89.1 mph on his fastball and is in the second percentile in Whiff%, he issues fewer walks than 93% of all other big league pitchers. Just about all of his metrics indicate that Greinke will have to continue to draw on all the finesse he can muster to get outs. He registers well below league average in terms of average exit velocity and hard hit rate against.

The Royals seem like a perfect fit to accommodate Greinke’s 20th season. Kansas City has plenty of rotation uncertainty and room for him in their rotation. That’s not to say that Greinke’s prospective return to the Royals, albeit sentimental, is purely for nostalgia’s sake. Greinke had Kansas City’s second-best ERA of any regular starter, and was one of two Royals starters with an ERA below 5.00. While the righty may be able to find opportunities with more clear-cut contenders, he prioritized returning to Kansas City as a free agent last offseason. Despite reportedly receiving similar offers from the Twins and Tigers, Grienke inked a $13MM deal with K.C. On the heels of a career-low strikeout rate, he may find a slightly lesser deal in free agency this time around.

JULY 19: Kansas City general manager J.J. Piccolo pushed back against the idea the Royals would only trade Grienke if he requested a deal in a recent appearance on 610 Sports Radio (h/t to Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). “There’s nothing contractually. We’ll treat Zack Greinke the exact same way we’ll treat any other player. If the return is a good return, then we’ll look at it,” Piccolo said about the possibility of a Greinke deal. The GM acknowledged the team “would have discussions with Zack if anything were to come forward” in recognition of his decision to sign there over the winter, but it doesn’t appear there’s a firm mandate not to deal the six-time All-Star. He nevertheless indicated they’ve yet to have any substantive discussions with interested teams and conceded it seems unlikely a deal will wind up coming together before the deadline.

JULY 15: With the Royals already in sell mode, the majority of their impending free agents figure to eventually emerge as trade candidates. One exception appears to be right-hander Zack Greinke, whom the Royals aren’t planning to trade unless he specifically asks to be dealt, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.

The 38-year-old Greinke is back with his original organization after 11 years spent honing a potential Hall of Fame resume around the league, making stops with the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, D-backs and Astros along the way. Greinke chose to sign a one-year, $13MM deal with the Royals despite a reportedly comparable offer from the now-division-leading Twins and interest at a similar price point from the Tigers. Detroit GM Al Avila said during Spring Training that money was not the deciding factor in Greinke’s decision. Rather, the righty preferred going “back to Kansas City and the place where he started,” which is wholly understandable at this juncture of his career. Heyman adds that Greinke recently purchased a home in Kansas City as well — all of which combines to make a trade appear fairly unlikely.

Greinke has been mostly solid for an unproven and at times shaky Royals staff this season, making 14 starts and logging 73 2/3 frames of 4.52 ERA ball. All of the damage against him has come in four road starts, as he’s been hit hard in Houston, Colorado, Minnesota and Arizona. Greinke has a 1.86 ERA while pitching at Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium, and despite the pedestrian earned run average, he’s held his opponents to two or fewer runs in nine of his 14 starts. Righties Brad Keller (3.96 ERA, 97 2/3 innings) and Brady Singer (3.82 ERA, 66 innings) have also been good for Kansas City, but the rest of the pitchers who’ve started games for the Royals this year have ERAs either just under or well north of 5.00.

A former Cy Young winner, six-time All-Star, six-time Gold Glover and two-time ERA champion, Greinke’s dominance has faded late in his career as his fastball velocity and strikeout rates have dropped. He’s averaging just 89.2 mph with his “heater” in 2022 while striking out a career-low 12.5% of his opponents. His command of the strike zone remains masterful, however, evidenced by a 4.5% walk rate and a 67.9% first-pitch strike rate, which ranks tenth among big league pitchers (min. 70 innings).

It’s certainly possible that as the deadline draws nearer, Greinke will feel the urge to again join a postseason push and approach the front office about engineering a trade. Even then, he’d likely be selective about his preferred destination, so a trade wouldn’t necessarily be a given. At least for now, it seems much likelier that he stays put.