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Zack Greinke

Royals Place Zack Greinke On 15-Day Injured List

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The Royals announced a flurry of roster moves this afternoon, adding four players (outfielder Kyle Isbel, right-handers Arodys Vizcaino and Jose Cuas, and left-hander Foster Griffin) to the active roster, sending three (left-hander Gabe Speier and right-handers Matt Peacock and Zack Greinke) to the injured list, and returning one (outfielder Brewer Hicklen) to Triple-A Omaha.  Of the four activated, Isbel was reinstated from the injured list, Griffin was recalled from Triple-A, and Vizcaino and Cuas were each selected from Triple-A, meaning that they were also added to the club’s 40-man roster.

Greinke is the only one of the three IL players who is going to the 15-day IL with a designated issue, implying that Peacock and Speier are on the COVID-related injury list.  Isbel had also been on the COVID list due to virus symptoms, though it ended up being a non-COVID illness that sidelined the outfielder for four days.

Greinke is suffering from a right flexor strain, and the veteran righty recently told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that he has been dealing with related soreness for “a little bit.”  While any injury in the forearm or elbow area is a red flag, Greinke added that he has been dealing with some degree of elbow problems for years, so it’s possible that a 15-day absence might be all it takes for Greinke to heal up.

The injury could explain Greinke’s lack of success in his last four starts, as the former Cy Young Award winner has a 9.50 ERA in his last 18 innings of work.  His ERA now sits at 5.05 over 51 2/3 innings, with only a minuscule 11.2% strikeout rate.  Between this lack of whiffs and a lot of hard contact allowed, there isn’t much to like about Greinke’s numbers apart from his typically excellent walk rate (4.5%).

Vizcaino is on the verge of his first MLB appearance since the 2019 season, when he tossed four innings for the Braves before undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery.  The veteran didn’t return to the field at all until 2021, when he tossed 7 2/3 innings with the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate, and Vizcaino then inked a minor league with the Royals this past winter.

After essentially three full years off, it’s hard to know what to expect from Vizcaino in his return to the Show, though he was a very capable bullpen arm for Atlanta in his heyday.  He has also looked quite good with Triple-A Omaha, posting a 1.76 ERA and 29.7% strikeout rate in 15 1/3 innings.  Vizcaino’s 9.4% walk rate is a little on the high side, but actually an improvement over his career 10.8% walk rate at the big league level.

The 27-year-old Cuas has finally reached the majors after a pro career that has seen him bounce around the minors and independent leagues, and change his position entirely from infielder to pitcher.  An 11th-round draft pick by the Brewers in 2015, Cuas wasn’t getting anywhere as a position player, but his fortunes changed after converting to relief pitching in 2018.  Over 126 2/3 career innings in the minors, Cuas has a 2.63 ERA, with a sidearm delivery and a sinker-slider combo that induces a lot of grounders and a good amount (22.22%) of strikeouts.

AL Central Notes: Gray, Grossman, Greinke

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Twins’ starter Sonny Gray left today’s game after being visited by team trainers. The team announced to reporters, including Dan Hayes of The Athletic, that Gray has right pectoral tightness. The severity isn’t known at this time, but it’s no doubt worrying for the Twins and their fans. Gray already missed about three weeks on the IL this season, although that was a hamstring strain.

Still, the Twins are in a bit of a squeeze when it comes to their rotation. Chris Paddack, Josh Winder and Joe Ryan have all landed on the IL in the past couple of weeks, which has thinned out their depth. The rotation at the moment consists of Gray, Dylan Bundy, Bailey Ober, Chris Archer and Devin Smeltzer. The club is currently in the middle of a stretch where they play 18 games in 17 days, thanks to a doubleheader that’s coming up on Tuesday. Even if Gray can make his next start, it’s going to be a challenge to get through the next chunk of their schedule.

Perhaps adding to that challenge will be the subtraction of some unknown players when the Twins head to Toronto next week to face the Blue Jays. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune relays word from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey that “a few” of the players on the roster won’t be making the journey. Current Canadian health restrictions don’t allow for those not vaccinated against COVID-19 to cross the border into the country. (Canada is not exceptional in this regard. The same restrictions apply in reverse, as unvaccinated Canadians are not currently allowed to enter the United States.)

Other notes from the division…

  • Robbie Grossman started today’s game as the designated hitter for the Tigers but was replaced by Jeimer Candelario. Manager A.J. Hinch told reporters after the game, including Jason Beck of MLB.com, that Grossman was experiencing neck spasms. While it doesn’t appear Grossman is headed for a lengthy absence, it’s surely frustrating for a Detroit team that has been heavily snakebit this season. Though the club entered the season with hopes of competing for a playoff spot, they’ve been hit by a large number of injuries, most notably in the starting rotation. The club’s record is currently 17-29, putting them second-last in the American League, ahead of only the Royals. That has the club trending towards being sellers at the deadline this year, with short-term assets the most likely to go. Grossman fits that bill, as he’s in the second season of the two-year deal he signed with Detroit in 2021. Unfortunately, his trade value is likely at a low ebb, due to his slow start to the year. After hitting .239/.357/.415 last year for a wRC+ of 114, he’s currently slashing .199/.311/.241 this year for a 71 wRC+. Last year’s 23.1% strikeout rate has also shot up to 30.7% this year. He and the Tigers will both surely be hoping that this current issue can be quickly left behind so that Grossman can get back on track. The Blue Jays tried to acquire Grossman at last year’s deadline, though they may not have as much interest now, based on his campaign so far.
  • Royals manager Mike Matheny tells reporters, including Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star, that Zack Greinke is dealing with a forearm/flexor issue. Greinke himself spoke to reporters about the issue, including Worthy, describing his arm as “sore and tight.” Like the Tigers, there was some hope of the Royals coming out of their rebuild and competing his year, though that hasn’t happened. The club’s 16-30 record is worse than every team in the majors except for the 16-31 Reds, thanks in no small part to the starting rotation. Royals’ starters had an ERA of 5.07 coming into today, which was better than only the Reds and Nationals. That’s going to go up once today’s game is factored in, as Greinke allowed five earned runs in four innings today. His personal ERA on the season climbed to 5.05 from that start, which would be his highest since the 5.80 he put up back in 2005, his age-21 season. While the severity of the injury isn’t known, it’s never a good sign for a pitcher to have an arm issue, though he and the club will surely hope he can get past it and onto a better track going forward.

AL Central Notes: Twins, Royals, Greinke, Rosario,

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Zack Greinke is headed back to the Royals on a one-year deal worth $13MM, but Kansas City faced some competition from a division rival in securing his services. The Twins made a “strong push” to sign Greinke before he landed back in K.C., tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North radio. Wolfson speculates that in the end, the allure of returning to his original organization may have simply proven too strong for Minnesota or another organization to overcome once the Royals jumped into the bidding.

The Twins have been one of the most active clubs on the trade market since the lockout ended, but they’ve yet to make a serious move in free agency this offseason — either pre- or post-lockout. Minnesota has added Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez via trade and rolled the dice on an affordable Dylan Bundy flier ($5MM with a 2023 club option) in free agency, but there’s still work to be done in the rotation, at shortstop and in the bullpen. They’ve been talking to the A’s about lefty Sean Manaea and righty Frankie Montas, and they’ve also reportedly been in touch with Trevor Story about a potential deal.

Here’s more from the division…

  • Speaking of Greinke, the new Royals right-hander told reporters that he is not planning for the 2022 season to be his last, per Josh Vernier of 610 Sports Radio’s. It’s a welcome piece of news for fans of the enigmatic pitcher, who will gear up for his twentieth year in the Majors if he lands on an active roster in 2023. The longtime ace isn’t just looking to pad his Hall of Fame credentials either, as he’s coming off a season where he posted a useful 4.16 ERA in 171 innings. Though Greinke’s strikeout and home run rates trended in the wrong direction last year his ability to pound the strike zone and eat innings make up a skillset that will surely appeal to teams.
  • The Guardians have a huge need in the outfield and a massive stockpile of high-end middle infield talent on the cusp of MLB readiness, which has prompted a good bit of speculation about them trading for some outfield help. However, manager Terry Francona told reporters yesterday that he currently plans to have 2021 shortstop Amed Rosario split his time between short and left field, which could create some additional opportunities for that surplus of middle infield prospects (Twitter link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). Rosario, 26, posted a .282/.321/.409 batting line in 588 plate appearances last season — spending the vast majority of his time at shortstop. He did see 123 innings in the outfield, mostly in center, with lackluster defensive ratings. It’s still possible that Cleveland will pick up some more established outfield help one way or another, but for now it looks like Myles Straw will reprise his role in center and be flanked by a combination of Rosario, Bradley Zimmer, Oscar Mercado and top prospect Steven Kwan in the corners.

Tigers Notes: Manaea, Montas, Greinke, Torkelson, Greene

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The Tigers have had an active offseason, acquiring Javier Báez, Eduardo Rodríguez, Andrew Chafin and Tucker Barnhart. They could still use some help at the back of the rotation, though, and they’ve been tied to a few starting pitchers in recent days.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted last night that Detroit was among the teams in discussions with the A’s about Frankie Montas and Sean Manaea. It is widely believed Oakland will move one or both of those players, as the A’s have kicked off their long-rumored reboot since the lockout was lifted. Chris Bassitt, Matt Olson and Matt Chapman have already been shipped out. Manaea, entering his final year of club control, seems a lock to change teams. Montas has an additional year of control, but that was also true of Chapman and Olson.

Either would be a marked upgrade to the rotation, beyond a typical back-of-the-rotation acquisition. Manaea tossed 179 1/3 innings of 3.91 ERA/3.68 SIERA ball last season, his third sub-4.00 showing in four full seasons. Montas was even better, pitching to a 3.37 ERA in 187 frames with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate.

The A’s two starters may be the top two arms available to pitching-needy clubs. Every currently healthy starting pitcher who made MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list entering the offseason has already signed. The Reds don’t intend to trade Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle, leaving few obvious remaining trade candidates.

Detroit general manager Al Avila met with reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press) this afternoon. He acknowledged that the market was “thinning out a little bit” but said the front office was “still trying to improve the team.” The Tigers were reportedly involved in the bidding for Zack Greinke before the six-time All-Star returned to the Royals on a $13MM deal. Avila confirmed as much today, saying “we were in the Greinke situation” but that the righty preferred to “(go) back to Kansas City and the place where he started.” Avila implied the Tigers were prepared to make an offer at least competitive with the Royals’ proposal but suggested Detroit was at a geographic disadvantage against their division rivals.

Asked about the possibility of acquiring one of the A’s hurlers, Avila said they’ve looked into making an impact acquisition via trade but expressed a desire “to be careful” in not parting with too much prospect talent. Montas, given his two years of control and superior numbers, would bring back more in return than would Manaea.

Speaking of top prospects, Avila addressed the status of Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. Both young hitters are among Baseball America’s top five overall minor league talents, and each had excellent late-season showings with Triple-A Toledo last year. Whether either of Torkelson or Greene will make the Opening Day roster is one of the biggest questions for the organization.

Avila denied that service time considerations would play a role in whether to carry those players out of camp. “When a player is ready to come up, and the team is ready to go, there’s no reason to hold a player back. I was not taught that way,” the GM said, via Petzold. “I also believe I’m not arrogant enough to think that I could hold a guy back and we’re going to get by and we’re going to make the playoffs anyway. You got to go full bore from Day 1. Those few games at the beginning could mean everything at the end. That’s the way I was taught. Our decision is going to be to put the best team on the field where we can win and get to the playoffs.”

To be clear, that’s not a formal declaration that either of Greene or Torkelson will break camp. Avila said the front office will “know it when we see it” when asked about when those players will be ready for their debuts. There’d seem to be a real opportunity for either to open the year on the MLB roster. Putting Torkelson at first could allow Jonathan Schoop to kick back to second base, which might otherwise be manned by Willi Castro or Harold Castro. Greene could be an option for either left or center field, where he’d presumably be complemented by Akil Baddoo and Robbie Grossman, with Víctor Reyes moving into a fourth outfield role.

Royals Sign Zack Greinke

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5:44pm: To make room for Greinke on the 40-man roster, the club has placed Tyler Zuber on the 60-day IL, per various reports, including Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Zuber has right shoulder impingement syndrome and will miss the start of the season.

4:42pm: The Royals have formally announced the signing.

2:48pm: Zack Greinke is going back to his roots. The free-agent righty has agreed to a one-year deal with the Royals, pending the completion of a physical, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Greinke, a client of Excel Sports Management, will be guaranteed $13MM and can earn another $2MM via innings-based incentives, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post.

The 38-year-old Greinke isn’t the fireballing ace that he was toward the end of his first run with the Royals, but he remains an effective innings eater. He’ll return to his old stomping ground as the elder statesman on what figures to be an extremely young staff who’ll no doubt want to soak up as much pitching knowledge as possible from the 18-yeasr big league veteran.

Zack Greinke | Stan Szeto-USA TODAY SportsGreinke spent the past two-plus seasons with the Astros after being traded from Arizona to Houston in a buzzer-beating deal at the 2019 trade deadline. Greinke’s once blazing fastball averaged just 89 mph in 2021 and his strikeout rate dipped, but he’s maintained pristine command of the strike zone (5.2% walk rate). Since 2020, Greinke has a 4.12 ERA in 238 innings for Houston, although his 2021 season would’ve looked considerably better were it not for a late September swoon.

Through his first 26 starts in 2021, Greinke pitched to a strong 3.41 ERA. Fielding-independent metrics were still a bit down on him because of the lack of punchouts (17.5% in that stretch), but Greinke yielded a paltry 87.7 mph average exit velocity in that time and had a 33% opponents’ hard-hit rate. Greinke tested positive for Covid-19 at the end of August and went back on the IL in late September due to neck soreness. It’s not clear that either had a direct impact on his results, although it’s certainly possible that he wasn’t pitching at 100% down the stretch. The results seem to suggest as much, as Greinke was tattooed for 21 runs in his final 15 1/3 innings of work.

Even if Greinke should be projected for more of a low-4.00s ERA than the mid-3.00 range he sat for much of the 2021 season, he’ll still be a valuable and reliable source of innings for the Royals. He’s made at least 28 appearances in 11 of the past 14 seasons, with the exceptions being the shortened 2020 season (when he made all 12 of his starts) and the 2016 season (when he missed a month with an oblique injury but still started 26 games).

For a Royals club that expects to give the bulk of its innings to young and/or unproven starters — Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, Carlos Hernandez, Jonathan Heasley — the ability to confidently pencil Greinke in for around 30 starts and 170-plus frames is especially important. Brad Keller is currently the only starter on the staff with more than two years of Major League service time, but he’s in search of a rebound from a career-worst performance this past season.

The deal for Greinke ostensibly came together in fairly quick fashion. Kansas City traded Mike Minor to the Royals just this afternoon, and reports immediately following the deal suggested that they were in the hunt for rotation upgrades. Although they’re said to have checked in with the A’s about a potential Frankie Montas deal, it’ll be Greinke who joins the staff to help stabilize the group and, ideally, help guide the Royals back to a winning record

Subtracting Minor and adding Greinke’s larger salary brings the Royals up to a projected payroll of a bit more than $93MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’s nowhere near the franchise record $143MM from 2017, but that payroll was buoyed by a pair of consecutive World Series appearances achieved by the Royals’ former core. The fact that they felt compelled to move Minor and save some money on his salary before adding Greinke suggests that new owner John Sherman, who purchased the team in 2019, isn’t comfortable pushing payroll back to those 2017 levels at this time.

It’s possible that further additions will follow for the Royals. They’ve reportedly sought ways to trade Carlos Santana, both as a means of clearing playing time for top prospect Nick Pratto and also in order to shed the veteran’s $10.5MM salary. If president of baseball operations Dayton Moore manages to find a Santana deal similar to this afternoon’s Minor trade, additional veteran reinforcements could be on the way to help supplement a young Royals team that’ll see the debuts of Pratto and top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. early in the 2022 season.

Tigers Interested In Zack Greinke, Michael Pineda

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The Tigers are “still in the mix” for free agent starters Zack Greinke and Michael Pineda, The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky reports (Twitter link).  While the Tigers also re-signed Wily Peralta on a minor league deal earlier today, the club is clearly still interested in adding further reinforcements to its rotation, and using Peralta in his old swingman role.

Eduardo Rodriguez was signed to a five-year, $77MM deal back in November, thus giving Detroit a veteran arm to augment the promising young rotation trio of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning.  Even with Peralta now in the fold as well, adding yet another full-time starter would give the Tigers more depth in the event of injury, or if any of the younger hurlers aren’t quite yet ready to deliver at the Major League level.  Neither Greinke or Pineda are exactly sure things themselves, of course, but they do bring plenty of experience to a Tigers team that plans to return to contention.

Greinke’s 17.2% strikeout rate last season was his lowest since 2006, while his 17.4% home run rate was the highest of his 18-year career.  The veteran righty also missed time due to both neck soreness and the COVID-related injury list during the last two months of the season, and thus the Astros only used Greinke on a sparing and limited basis during their postseason run.

This said, Greinke was still an effective pitcher overall, posting an elite 5.2% walk rate and solid hard-contact numbers en route to a 4.16 ERA over 171 innings for Houston.  Even as Greinke enters his age-38 season, there is plenty of indication that he can still be a strong contributor to a big league rotation, though his days of being an All-Star caliber starter are probably over.

Pineda is only 33, but carries more durability questions than Greinke.  Three separate IL stints limited Pineda to 109 1/3 innings with the Twins last season, and he also missed all of 2018 recovering from a Tommy John surgery.  When Pineda did pitch last year, he performed well via the bottom-line number of a 3.62 ERA, though his Statcast metrics were much less flattering, apart from an outstanding 4.6% walk rate.  Pineda had some of the worst hard-contact numbers of any pitcher in baseball, and his 19.2% strikeout rate was both well below the league average and the worst K% of Pineda’s eight big league seasons.

It would certainly seem likely that either Greinke or Pineda would be available on a one-year contract, which would fit a Detroit club that could be looking for more supplementary pieces after already spending big on E-Rod and Javier Baez.  MLBTR ranked Greinke 40th on our list of the winter’s top 50 free agents and projected him for a one-year, $15MM deal.  Pineda signed two-year deals with the Twins in each of his last two visits to the open market, though both of those contracts (worth $10MM and $20MM, respectively) were impacted by his Tommy John recovery and the 60-game PED suspension that cost him parts of the 2019 and 2020 season.

MLBTR Poll: Where Will Zack Greinke Sign?

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The free agent starting pitching market moved very quickly in the early stages of the offseason. A few prominent starters remained unsigned heading into the lockout, though. Among them — Zack Greinke, whose market remains largely undefined.

Greinke is no longer the ace he was at his peak. The six-time All-Star is coming off a 4.16 ERA over 171 innings, his second straight season with an ERA a touch over 4.00. That’s still capable run prevention, but Greinke’s days of posting sub-3.00 marks are probably behind him. His swing-and-miss and strikeout rates regressed last year, and he dealt with some neck soreness down the stretch. Between his age and those trends, teams can’t reasonably expect Grienke to assume the role of Game 1 or Game 2 playoff starter next season.

That said, there aren’t many rotations he wouldn’t still upgrade. He’s still one of the game’s best command artists. Greinke has shown a knack for remaining successful even as his raw stuff has ticked down with age. Even if his production might now be closer to average on a rate basis, the former Cy Young Award winner has continued to soak up innings. He exceeded 200 frames each season from 2017-19, and he’s surpassed 150 innings every year since 2007 (excluding the shortened 2020 schedule).

Immediate contenders could certainly stand to plug Greinke into the middle or back of their starting staff. Rebuilding teams might view signing him as an opportunity to bring aboard a famously cerebral hurler with an elite track record as an example for their younger, controllable arms (although it remains to be seen if the 18-year MLB veteran would be open to signing with a team that doesn’t look like a surefire competitor).

To date, however, we’ve heard very little about where Greinke might end up. He’s not expected to re-sign with the Astros, a testament to their enviable collection of in-house rotation depth. Beyond that, there’s not been any substantive indication in which direction he might be leaning. At the start of the offseason, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweeted that Greinke “(wanted) to continue pitching for an NL team.”

The rationale for that reported desire to return to the Senior Circuit is unclear. If it were about getting another chance to hit regularly — Grienke has won a pair of Silver Slugger Awards in his career — that’ll probably prove moot. Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association seem to have mutual interest in implementing a universal designated hitter in the next collective bargaining agreement. If that comes into play, then there’ll be no difference in rules between the leagues. If Greinke just prefers certain National League cities or ballparks and is indifferent about an opportunity to hit, then that could give NL suitors an upper hand.

It’s also at least worth contemplating the possibility Greinke moves on from playing entirely. Nightengale’s report suggests he was planning to continue his career as of a few months ago. He’s still an effective pitcher, even if he’s no longer elite. There’s been no indication he’s not planning to play in 2022, so him stepping away seems unlikely. But Greinke turned 38 years old in October, so one seemingly can’t definitively rule out the possibility he retires until he speaks publicly about his future or puts pen to paper on a new contract.

Where does the MLBTR readership think Greinke will be in 2022? Will he continue playing, and if so, where will he sign?

(poll link for app users)

 

Have Certain Free Agent Former MLB Stars Already Played Their Last Game?

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This year, we’ve seen former quality MLB players such as Joakim Soria, Daniel Murphy, Cody Allen, Nick Markakis, Hector Rondon, Jordan Zimmermann, Welington Castillo, and Nate Jones decide to retire.  All current MLB free agents are experiencing the first work stoppage of their career right now.  Should the lockout end sometime in February, there could be a burst of concentrated free agent signings and trades unlike anything we’ve ever seen before.

While that will likely work out just fine for the likes of Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, and Freddie Freeman, a free agent frenzy could also include a cold shoulder toward former MLB stars nearing the end of their careers.  Instead of putting the finishing touches on rosters with a sprinkling of February or March one-year MLB deals and minor league deals, front offices will be working to acquire many significant star and mid-tier free agents and trade targets when the lockout ends.  It stands to reason that many veterans with declining skills will be told they need to wait even longer before a team is willing to commit.  That could leave former stars without jobs.  Rich Hill has a deal with the Red Sox heading into his age-42 season, but let’s take a look at eight elder statesmen who may at least consider retirement.

  • Albert Pujols: 42 in January, Pujols mashed lefties and gave the Dodgers a veteran presence off the bench this year.  Back in October, he said, “I don’t think my time to retire has come. I don’t want to sit in my house next year, knowing that I can still keep playing.”  Pujols is 21 home runs shy of 700 for his career, and he’d be aided by the addition of the NL DH.
  • Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman, 37, had an October send-off at Nationals Park but hasn’t publicly made a decision about retirement.  At a press conference, he said, “Do I want to keep playing? I think I can keep playing. I think I had a really good year with the role that I was supposed to do, and now it’s a decision of whether I want to keep doing that, or do I want to be around my family a little bit more. I think the only thing I kind of told Davey is I started the season around 50/50 and it hasn’t gone up.”  GM Mike Rizzo said Zimmerman has an MLB contract with the team as long as he wants it.
  • Brett Gardner: Gardner, 38, scuffled with the bat this year but wasn’t much worse than he was in 2016 or ’18.  He wants to return to the Yankees in 2022, but chose a $1.15MM buyout over a $2.3MM player option.
  • Nelson Cruz: Cruz, 41, has been defying age for many years but managed only a 96 wRC+ in 238 plate appearances after a trade to the Rays.  Before the season, Cruz said “retirement is not on my mind,” and now he might have the chance to DH in the National League.  Cruz is tied with Jeff Bagwell and Vladimir Guerrero at 40th on the all-time home run leaderboard with 449.  It’s easy to see Cruz striving for the 500 club, which currently has 28 members.
  • Jed Lowrie: Lowrie, 38 in April, played only nine games from 2019-20, encompassing his contract with the Mets.  This year, surprisingly, he played 139 games for the A’s.  Lowrie struggled in the season’s final two months, but thus far he’s given no indication he’s looking to retire.
  • Zack Greinke: Greinke, 38, gave up 20 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his final four regular season appearances, ballooning his ERA from 3.41 to 4.16.  He battled through COVID-19 and neck soreness, but capped his season by giving the Astros four scoreless innings to start Game 4 of the World Series.  Asked after the game if he wants to continue playing, Greinke declined to answer.  Back in March, Greinke said, “Hopefully, I’ll pitch a lot longer still, but a lot of things come into play on whether you’re allowed to pitch as long as you want to and stuff.”
  • J.A. Happ: Happ, 39, posted a 6.77 ERA in 19 starts for the Twins, but managed a 4.00 mark in 11 outings after being traded to the Cardinals.  He’s given no indication about retirement.
  • Jon Lester: Lester, 38 in January, also pitched better upon a trade to the Cardinals this year.  Asked in September about playing in 2022, Lester was reportedly noncommittal.  He reached his 200th career win on September 20th.

Zack Greinke Not Expected To Re-Sign With Astros

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The Astros have one of the more significant crop of free agents around the league, as the team is facing the potential departures of Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Kendall Graveman and Zack Greinke, among others. Houston may make an effort to retain some of that group, but Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports (on Twitter) that Greinke is not expected to return to the Astros this winter.

Assuming he indeed signs elsewhere, Greinke will wrap up his Astros tenure after two and a half seasons. Acquired from the D-Backs in a surprise 2019 deadline day blockbuster, the six-time All-Star worked 62 2/3 innings with a pristine 3.02 ERA down the stretch. While he was knocked around in one start during the Division Series, Greinke had strong showings in both the AL Championship Series and World Series that year.

Over the past two seasons, Greinke has offered more steady mid-rotation production than the ace-caliber numbers he consistently posted for the bulk of his career. He worked 67 frames of 4.03 ERA ball in 2020, and put up a similar 4.16 mark over 171 innings this past season. His underlying numbers this year took a worrying downturn, though, which contributed to the team curtailing his postseason workload. Greinke’s strikeout rate dropped from 24.5% in 2020 to 17.2% this past season, while his home run rate doubled. During this year’s run to the World Series, skipper Dusty Baker relied more heavily on the team’s younger arms, with Greinke working just 6 1/3 innings of two-run ball in three playoff outings.

The dip in swing-and-miss should have some impact on Greinke’s offseason market, but the 38-year-old will no doubt still find plenty of interest. His 4.16 ERA, while his highest mark since 2016, was nevertheless a bit better than the leaguewide 4.34 showing for starting pitchers. Greinke remains one of the sport’s preeminent control artists, with this year’s 5.2% walk percentage checking in 11th-lowest among the 129 hurlers with 100+ innings. And that’s before considering the intangible value teams could expect from the 18-year big league veteran, who is regarded as one of the league’s most cerebral pitchers.

Nightengale suggests Greinke would prefer an opportunity with a National League team. That’s something of an odd distinction on the surface, since it’s widely expected that this offseason’s collective bargaining talks could result in the introduction of the designated hitter to the NL (thereby removing the biggest differentiator between the two leagues). Still, it’s possible Greinke — who played the bulk of the 2011-19 seasons playing for NL clubs — might broadly prefer the accommodations or ballparks in the NL to those of the American League.

Zack Greinke, Dylan Lee To Start Game 4 Of The World Series

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Both starting pitchers have now been announced for tonight’s Game 4 of the World Series, as the Braves have revealed that rookie left-hander Dylan Lee will get the ball to begin what is expected to be a bullpen game against the Astros.  For Houston, manager Dusty Baker confirmed last night that Zack Greinke will start, with Greinke also likely in line for an abbreviated outing.

While both pitchers can probably be more accurately described as openers rather than true starters for tonight’s game, the Lee/Greinke matchup represents quite a contrast in experience.  Greinke has 18 MLB seasons, 3110 regular-season innings, and 21 postseason appearances on his resume.  On the other side of the equation, the 27-year-old Lee didn’t make his Major League debut until October 1, and he has thus far pitched a total of two regular-season innings and 2 2/3 postseason innings in his brief career in The Show.

Lee was included on Atlanta’s NLDS roster but didn’t see any action, and he wasn’t initially on the NLCS roster until Huascar Ynoa had to be replaced due to injury.  Lee pitched two frames of relief in the Braves’ 11-2 loss to the Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS, and he then pitched two-thirds of an inning against the Astros in Game 2 of the World Series.

Originally a tenth-round pick for the Marlins in the 2016 draft, Lee posted some solid numbers in his first four pro season, but Miami released him during Spring Training this year.  The Braves inked Lee to a minor league deal, and he responded with some big numbers (1.54 ERA, 30.9% strikeout rate, and a tiny 3.4% walk rate) over 46 2/3 Triple-A innings.

Now, Lee finds himself on the hill in the Fall Classic, becoming the first pitcher to ever make his first Major League start in a Series game (as per the Elias Sports Bureau).  Lee will face a probable top three of Jose Altuve, Michael Brantley, and Alex Bregman, assuming the Astros stick with the same lineup they’ve deployed throughout the World Series.

Between injuries, two weeks on the COVID-related injured list, and a general lack of effectiveness late in the season, Greinke has been limited to two appearances during the playoffs.  He tossed an inning of relief in Houston’s 12-6 loss to the White Sox in the ALDS, and then got the start against the Red Sox in Game 4 of the ALCS.  Though the Astros won that game by a 9-2 margin, Greinke only faced nine batters over 1 1/3 innings, walking three batters and allowing a two-run homer to Xander Bogaerts.

These recent results notwithstanding, “if anybody knows how to pitch in a big game, it’s Greinke,” Baker told reporters yesterday.  “We don’t know how long he’s going to go. Just give us as much quality as you can, and then we’ll turn it over to somebody else.”  Cristian Javier is probably the likeliest candidate to toss bulk innings tonight, as the righty has worked beyond one innings in each of his four postseason outings this year, including 1 1/3 innings against Atlanta in Game 2.

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