Tim Lincecum filed for $13MM in arbitration today, according to SI.com's Jon Heyman. The Giants submitted $8MM. It appears the two sides will try to work a deal out with Ryan Howard's record $10MM award as a comparison. The question is, do you prefer a Rookie of the Year and an MVP, or two Cy Youngs?
Jonathan Papelbon's $6.25MM salary in 2009 is the record for a first year arbitration eligible pitcher, and that'll be smashed by Lincecum this year even if he loses an arbitration hearing.
Meh. He isnt worth nearly 13mil
I hope this is sarcasm…
Clearly sarcasm. Im honestly surprised the team hasnt tried to lock him up. I know he speaks about wanting to go year to year but i wonder if the right deal could get him to sign an extension.
oh wait, forgot about that zito contract.
Lincecum has said he wants to go year to year. He doesn’t want to be locked up.
Clearly sarcasm. Im honestly surprised the team hasnt tried to lock him up. I know he speaks about wanting to go year to year but i wonder if the right deal could get him to sign an extension.
I hope this is sarcasm…
What >_>. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up getting some deal like Hernandez. But not now. I don’t even see him staying with the Giants for long. Hitters have a better chance staying with 1 team then Pitchers
Wrong, he will be a giant for a while. There is no way they are giving him up. He’s like Pujols, they built a franchise around him.
the problem is the Zito contract. Unless Zito is willing to re-work that contract and defer some money then they are kinda screwed because Lincecum would be looking for at least 20mil. even if they take their pay roll back up to 90 mil that would make 40 mil of their payroll in two pitchers.
I hear ya, I hope Zito is cool with that. He kinda owes the giants fans for the first few years of his contract… he was thrown into the bullpen a couple of times if I’m not mistaken, and that’s cause the giants were too ashamed to bench him entirely. I think Zito is just happy to have a team right now and should really consider helping them with this budget problem. Who cares if he gets half as much, for example, wouldn’t he be satisfied?
Wrong, he will be a giant for a while. There is no way they are giving him up. He’s like Pujols, they built a franchise around him.
What >_>. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ended up getting some deal like Hernandez. But not now. I don’t even see him staying with the Giants for long. Hitters have a better chance staying with 1 team then Pitchers
I hope this is sarcasm…
I hope this is sarcasm…
Back-to-back seasons of being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball… yeah, where’s the value in that?
Back-to-back seasons of being one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball… yeah, where’s the value in that?
Are you kidding me?? 3 years in the Majors and 2 Cy Youngs. I think that would make him the best pitcher in MLB. Give that man whatever he wants!!
Thats what im sayin
Thats what im sayin
Amen brother, no one can touch this guy in NL. Now, true test to mr L is to see what he can do in American where the real players play.
Amen brother, no one can touch this guy in NL. Now, true test to mr L is to see what he can do in American where the real players play.
Are you kidding me?? 3 years in the Majors and 2 Cy Youngs. I think that would make him the best pitcher in MLB. Give that man whatever he wants!!
Tell me about it. He’s lucky the Giants offered 8. I think Timmy’s gettin a little big for his britches
Tell me about it. He’s lucky the Giants offered 8. I think Timmy’s gettin a little big for his britches
How is he NOT worth 13 mil? Sabathia gets a re-donkulous amount of money, and Lincecum has had a more dominant two years.
How is he NOT worth 13 mil? Sabathia gets a re-donkulous amount of money, and Lincecum has had a more dominant two years.
Ya….33-12, 526K’s, 10.2k/9, 2.54 era, 1.1 whip, and 2 Cy Youngs….ya not worth 13mil…but Felix Hernandez is worth 15.6 per year?
Ya….33-12, 526K’s, 10.2k/9, 2.54 era, 1.1 whip, and 2 Cy Youngs….ya not worth 13mil…but Felix Hernandez is worth 15.6 per year?
lincecum is better than felix and deserves more. hes worth about 20 to 25 mill a year. 2 cy young in 2 full season. hes the best pitcher in baseball.
i’m assuming your a dodger fan and kershaw is God right? 2 cy youngs is worth more than 13 million. not to mention they were his first 2 full seasons.
You are right he is not worth 13 million, he is worth about 20 million!
Meh. He isnt worth nearly 13mil
he’s worth like 20 mil./yr
he’s worth like 20 mil./yr
13 mil is a bargain for the Freak
13 mil is a bargain for the Freak
13 mil…..plz hes worth at least 20 mil./yr
13 mil…..plz hes worth at least 20 mil./yr
If arbitration roughly follows a free agency value of 40% – 60% – 80%, what does a Super Two usually get?
40% of $20M is $8M. 40% of $32.5M is $13M.
So, if the standard is 40% of true value for a first time arbitration player, then the Giants believe he is worth $20M on the open market, and Lincecum’s agent believes he is worth $32.5M.
The problem is that Howard is the only comparable, a game changing top of the game player, and he got 10 mil. I don’t understand how the Giants really thought they would win when offering up 8. They must be trying to settle out of the hearing. Because if that goes to the hearing I could easily see Tim winning at 13 million, while the Giants could have certainly won if they just offered 9 million. Not to say he’s certain to win, as with a 10 million $ comparable, 8 is closer, but still…
40% of $20M is $8M. 40% of $32.5M is $13M.
So, if the standard is 40% of true value for a first time arbitration player, then the Giants believe he is worth $20M on the open market, and Lincecum’s agent believes he is worth $32.5M.
What? Are the Giants kidding? This guy is arguably one of the best pitchers in the game, and he’s got two Cy Young Awards. A lot of experts said he easily could have submitted $20MM as a figure, and the Giants think he is only worth 8MM? I wouldn’t be surprised if the arbitrator laughed in Sabean’s face and awarded Lincecum 13MM.
And to answer your question, Mike, I’m a Phillies fan. I watch Howard tear it up on a daily basis, but I’ll take 2 Cy Youngs in what, 2 and a half years(?) any day of the week.
What? Are the Giants kidding? This guy is arguably one of the best pitchers in the game, and he’s got two Cy Young Awards. A lot of experts said he easily could have submitted $20MM as a figure, and the Giants think he is only worth 8MM? I wouldn’t be surprised if the arbitrator laughed in Sabean’s face and awarded Lincecum 13MM.
And to answer your question, Mike, I’m a Phillies fan. I watch Howard tear it up on a daily basis, but I’ll take 2 Cy Youngs in what, 2 and a half years(?) any day of the week.
I realize the record is 10 but if I’m Timmy I feel like I’m worth 20.
I realize the record is 10 but if I’m Timmy I feel like I’m worth 20.
I’d be nervous signing him to a long term deal with that goofy delivery. However, there is no way the Giants should fight $13m for one of the best pitchers in the game.
That “goofy” delivery is mechanically sound and puts less stress on his shoulder/elbow than most deliveries.
That “goofy” delivery is mechanically sound and puts less stress on his shoulder/elbow than most deliveries.
What appears to you as a goofy delivery is the byproduct of all the work Lincecums father has done with him since he was 4 years old. He uses his legs and body as good as any major leaguer, it is almost a flawless delivery. It is typical for people to bad mouth him because he is not 6 foot three inches tall and fit the look of quote unquote a major league pitcher. I am A dodger fan, and I love to watch Lincecum pitch. Had the dodgers had picked him over a younger and less developed Kershaw they would probably have won a World Series in 2008 or 2009. I am not saying Kershaw will not be a good pitcher, but Lincecum arrived in the Major leagues with wicked stuff.
I’d be nervous signing him to a long term deal with that goofy delivery. However, there is no way the Giants should fight $13m for one of the best pitchers in the game.
LOL at all the people who freaked out about drumzalicious’s post. that’s good stuff. Some people will fall for anything lol
indeed
indeed
LOL at all the people who freaked out about drumzalicious’s post. that’s good stuff. Some people will fall for anything lol
I’m honestly shocked he didn’t ask for more… What happened to the “special considerations” due to his 2 Cy Youngs? Lincecum is a once in a lifetime pitcher. Ryan Howard is pretty much your run of the mill power hitting first baseman. There are 5 1B I’d take over Howard, including but not limited to, Pujols, Teixeira, Youkilis and probably Morneau. Not saying Howard’s not a great player, but I’m saying for team purposes, I’d rather have any of the above 4 guys on my lineup due to them being more well rounded players. None of the above will you see hit .270 any time soon. Not that you will see Howard hit less than 40 homers any time soon, but I am really not a big fan of a guy who really just hits the longball.
Lincecum, you can maybe argue that Felix Hernandez is in the same league as him. Maybe not even… Johan Santana was never even this good. He strikes out well over a batter per inning. He makes people look silly at the plate. He’s got a good glove. He’s overall just the best there is.
When there is no basis for comparison to a guy, such as Pujols and Lincecum, you know they are a special case. I think even had he submit say 16-17MM, there is no way he could lose based upon the FACT that no one even in the teir below him short of Grienke and Felix (both of whom really first came into their own last season) is paid less than 18MM per season. Really the only comparables are CC Sabathia and Johan Santana.
Lincecum will officially be the first pitcher I’d be willing to risk a 6+ year deal with. I’d give him 6/160 in a heart beat, without giving a second thought. How and why the Giants will spend 120 on Zito and almost 100MM more on Rowand, but dont drop a huge contract in Tim’s lap is beyond me… But he will sure look a lot crappier in pinstripes when he does hit the market.
Not sure Howard was run of the mill at the time he won his first award of $10m.
His 2 full seasons amounted to a line of: 292/409/623. That’s an AVERAGE for 2 full seasons. He clubbed 105 HR’s during that time as well. When Howard won there was exactly ONE first baseman that was better – Albert Pujols.
You are talking strictly offense. Defense, versatility, OBP are all just as important as clubbing 50 homers a season. Not taking anything away from howard, but we’ve seen this from multiple 1B, that’s my point. What pitcher has won 2 cy youngs in his first few seasons and stikes out 500 batters in those 2 years with around a 2 ERA?
I’m simply saying Lincecum is a more “special case” type of player
I’m honestly shocked he didn’t ask for more… What happened to the “special considerations” due to his 2 Cy Youngs? Lincecum is a once in a lifetime pitcher. Ryan Howard is pretty much your run of the mill power hitting first baseman. There are 5 1B I’d take over Howard, including but not limited to, Pujols, Teixeira, Youkilis and probably Morneau. Not saying Howard’s not a great player, but I’m saying for team purposes, I’d rather have any of the above 4 guys on my lineup due to them being more well rounded players. None of the above will you see hit .270 any time soon. Not that you will see Howard hit less than 40 homers any time soon, but I am really not a big fan of a guy who really just hits the longball.
Lincecum, you can maybe argue that Felix Hernandez is in the same league as him. Maybe not even… Johan Santana was never even this good. He strikes out well over a batter per inning. He makes people look silly at the plate. He’s got a good glove. He’s overall just the best there is.
When there is no basis for comparison to a guy, such as Pujols and Lincecum, you know they are a special case. I think even had he submit say 16-17MM, there is no way he could lose based upon the FACT that no one even in the teir below him short of Grienke and Felix (both of whom really first came into their own last season) is paid less than 18MM per season. Really the only comparables are CC Sabathia and Johan Santana.
Lincecum will officially be the first pitcher I’d be willing to risk a 6+ year deal with. I’d give him 6/160 in a heart beat, without giving a second thought. How and why the Giants will spend 120 on Zito and almost 100MM more on Rowand, but dont drop a huge contract in Tim’s lap is beyond me… But he will sure look a lot crappier in pinstripes when he does hit the market.
5 yr-75 mill
5 yr-75 mill
Lincecum is worth every cent of the 13 mil he offered. If this goes to arbitration he should win hands down in my opinion. His WAR was almost 9 the last two years.. The kid is incredible.
This will be the shortest arbitration hearing on record.
Lincecum 1, Giants 0
I doubt it will make it to hearing….they will probably work out a Felix type deal in the next couple days.
$13M, as in the 13th letter, M. A true Pothead Pixie. Either figure should pay off all the possession charges until it’s legalized. Timmy is smokin good.
Sabean your a D Bag. How do you offer Laroche 2 years 17 mil contract and only offer Tim 8 mil. That is disgraceful. PAY THE MAN!
Lucky I thought he was going to submit more. Either meet halfway or lock him up because he is going to win the case for sure.
I’d offer him 3 years/50 million…he’s better than felix…
Haha, looks like Bowden missed this call by about $5MM…
Man, the Giants had some serious cajones to lowball him at $8 million. But given the number that Lincecum submitted… Working out a negotiation could actually be pretty reasonable. Lincecum at $11-13 million is a steal, frankly.
8 million still represents a HUGE raise for him. He’s obviously worth more, though.
Naturally. I’m just glad that this $15-23 million nonsense didn’t materialize, and that the Giants didn’t buy into it. That’s why there are multiple arbitration years… Tenure factors in as well.
I’m torn. While it’s clear the Lincecum is WORTH $13MM the process isn’t meant to favor players, it’s meant to favor teams. The whole point of players being under team control for a certain number of years is that it provides better cost-certainty for teams to make it worth the time, money and risk involved in developing players. This is Lincecum’s first year of arbitration; if the Giants are going to be paying nearly market rates in a year or two, I don’t think the process is working.
In other words, the question in my mind isn’t whether Lincecum is worth $13MM; he is without a doubt. The question is whether he should get $13MM as a first-year arbitration player, and the answer to that is less clear to me. Is baseball comfortable with a precedent–even for a player of Lincecum’s caliber–of a likely above-$20MM arbitration award down the road?
THIS. People are looking at this entirely the wrong way. The arguement isn’t what Lincecum is worth. He’s clearly worth a 7/150MM + Payday when he becomes a free agent. He isn’t a free agent – he’s a cost controlled (supposedly) first year Arb player. I think these arb numbers are getting completely out of control and something needs to be done to keep these players what they’re supposed to be: cost controlled.
While I agree in almost any other circumstance, we are talking about a guy who won the Cy Young back-to-back in his first two full seasons. Whether baseball is comfortable with the precedent is irrelevant – at 13 mil he is still making arguably at least half of what he would get on the market. The Giants are still benefiting from the process, without a doubt
That’s exactly what I was getting at with my earlier post. Normally, there are 3 years of arbitration, and each time gets closer to the market value of the player. Normally, a first year arbitration player will get 40% of his market value.
So, the Giants are saying that he is worth $20M on the open market, and Lincecum is saying he is worth $32.5M on the open market.
Now, which one is more correct? Plus, he’s a Super Two, which means he has FOUR years of arbitration. If the arbiter says he’s worth $13M this year, could that mean $19M next year, and $26M the following?
How many teams can afford to pay a player like that into arbitration?
give Timmy whatever he wants just keep him in SF for the rest of his career!!!
seriously if they ever screw up and let Timmy leave even in his relative prime I’ll jump off AT&T Park into the cove haha
ill be right there with you.
Timmy deserves it but we also have to think about not to go too far, you never know what could happen, ex : ZITO
Very, very very smart filing by Lincecum’s agent. 13MM for a first year arb award is winnable considering Ryan Howard’s 10MM filing, while higher than that and it would be almost certain that the Giants win.
Although, if I’m Sabean, I’d file higher for the low point. File a 9-10MM offer and the team is almost guaranteed to win, which saves about 3-4MM to add a bat.
Using Santana or Halladay as a comp is incorrect in this case. Santana, for example, lost an arb case in 2004 when the difference in figures was $850k. He later signed a four-year extension through 2009, taking care of any arbitration issues and keeping him at a huge bargain. That removes him as a comp.
Halladay and the Blue Jays avoided arbitration in 2003 and he later signed a four-year extension with them at a bargain price. He never once had to deal with the arb process.
In Lincecum’s case, there isn’t a precedent for a pitcher of his stature. At the time of Howard’s record-shattering $10M case, there was no precedent for a hitter of his stature. That’s why he’s the best comp. These are two remarkable players who, at their respective times, were arguably among the best players in baseball long before hitting the open market.
Because Howard is the only accurate comp in terms of “unheard-of” arbitration figures, the Giants were wise to submit the $8M figure. Had Lincecum submitted anything close to $20M, the Giants have little temptation to find a middle ground there. The Giants would wait the process out and win the case, netting Lincecum for $8M.
Lincecum had to submit a “modest” figure and keep his leverage. By comparison, Lincecum is more valuable right now than Howard was at the time of his landmark arbitration case, so $13M isn’t exactly a stretch. He can likely win if he and the Giants don’t come to an agreement on a middle-ground figure. But at least now, the Giants have the opportunity to find a middle-ground figure of $11M — higher than Howard’s deal with good reason — and stay relatively close to the original $8M submitted.
Because of that context and the lack of precedent coming into this scenario, I don’t see $8M as insulting whatsoever. I think the gut reaction here (and probably everywhere) stems from a misunderstanding of the process altogether.
I would start offering little Timmy around the league next year and get the proven bats and a couple top prospects for him. He has never seemed like he wants to be in San Francisco long-term, so lets see what we can get from the Yankee’s, BoSox and any other takers. The time is next off season.
I sort of expected them to be apart but not 5 million apart. I expect Lincecum to get all 13 of what he wants. We all know his resume warrants his demands.
All arbitration players should get a max of 5 million per year. Look at the all these arbitration eligible players getting MORE $ than free agents. Put in your time and then get paid as a free agent.