Saturday night linkage..
- The Orioles are in search of a lefty reliever, writes The Baltimore Sun's Jeff Zrebiec. The guy the O's really want is Will Ohman, as they extended him a minor league contract offer in late January. Japanese lefty Hisanori Takahashi and Joe Beimel are also options for the club.
- Joe McDonald and Daniel Barbarisi of The Providence Journal take a look at the big decision Boston will face – whether or not to re-sign Josh Beckett. If the BoSox choose not to retain the 29-year-old, they'll have to recognize that his replacement likely won't be found in free agency.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel praises GM Doug Melvin for stocking up on hurlers this offseason. Free agent pickups Randy Wolf and Doug Davis were brought aboard to help support Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and Yovani Gallardo.
- Giants managing general partner Bill Neukom is not sure that the Giants' payroll will reach $100MM as has been originally reported, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle. San Francisco's payroll was $82.6MM to start the 2009 season.
I personally believe everything will work out with Beckett. Now that King Felix is locked up and there is no chance for the Sox to get him, its wise just to throw some money at Beckett
Whether things work out with Beckett or not, There are pitchers on next years market. Cliff Lee, Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly and plenty more.
How could any team value Ohman over Beimel? Joe Beimel is one of the best set up men in Baseball.
I wouldn’t call Beimel the best, but I would still prefer him to Ohman or Takahashi.
if the sox cant sign beckett, cliff lee should be the next option. webb(if he has a good season) should be next in line if they cant sign beckett or lee. they have to sign one of them no matter what.
wait, why do they “have” to? they already have john lackey who is like the carbon-copy of beckett and they did just fine with 2 mini-aces last season with lester+beckett…so they should do no worse with lester+lackey.
cost?
“How could any team value Ohman over Beimel? Joe Beimel is one of the best set up men in Baseball.”
I remember last offseason when the stat-clowns over at VivaElBirdos just HAD to have Will Ohman………………………. I mean Oh-man, they just HAD HAD HAD to have Will Ohman. HA HA…………………. Look how that panned out.
Although it isn’t like Ohman, Beimel, or Reyes(the 3 loogys we were looking at last offseason, did anything REALLY awesome in 2009.)
It wasn’t THAT excessive of a want, but when you have to throw a bunch of young guys like Motte, McClellan, Hawksworth, Walters, etc, it is kind of imperative to have more vets.
Too bad its pretty much the same story regarding the Cards’ bullpen this offseason, at least from the right side.
Guessing the inference that Lilly would be a worthy replacement for Josh Beckett didn’t come out quite right there. 🙂
Beimel one of the best set-up men? Really? I’d have to disagree.
Believe it or not: (The last three seasons)
588 IP, 3.70 ERA, 124 ERA+, 1.14 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 7.8 K/9 – Lilly
587 IP, 3.71 ERA, 126 ERA+, 1.17 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 8.7 K/9 – Beckett
The two have produced remarkably similar end results the last three seasons, something that would probably shock most fans.
That said, Beckett does have a higher repeatable talent level and is the better pitcher. But if one was forced to replace Beckett, Lilly wouldn’t be a horrible choice either.
and his last name starts with L so the rotation can be lester lackey lilly.
Over 4 seasons:
178 IP 4.34 ERA 2.53 K/BB 3.0 WAR
197 IP 4.06 ERA 1.89 K/BB 3.3 WAR
126 IP 5.56 ERA 1.66 K/BB 0.7 WAR
181 IP 4.31 ERA 1.98 K/BB 2.3 WAR
The AL lives forever in fear of the man they call Ted Lilly.
AL IP & ERA+ Since 2007:
Greinke 553.2 149
Halladay 710.1 141
Hernandez 629.2 133
Lackey 563.2 129
Sabathia 593.1 129
Beckett 587.1 126
And your point is?
You will notice, no where did I state Lilly is better – I stated the opposite. However, when it comes to actual recent results shown, Lilly has produced identical numbers. And it leads to a situation where if you had to replace Beckett in a rotation, Lilly wouldnt be a horrible option to look at.
My point was only that their results are not “remarkably similar” at all. Playing a matching game with the digits is not the same as comparing the pitchers’ stats — not in an instructive manner, anyway. They played in different leagues — Beckett in the toughest division of the tougher league. His results are far, far better than Lilly’s.
This would just be (well-backed) speculation except that Lilly has been tried in the AL East; he’s 4th starter material. Or was. Probably wouldn’t even do as well now.
So if a team had absolutely zero other viable options and no need for a quality starter, I suppose replacing Beckett with Lilly would not be horrible. But let’s be clear about what that means: he’s a last resort.
Well isnt that a lot of Hyperbole.
First, “the toughest division” when you play for the Red Sox means “Plays against the Yankees and 3 average to really bad clubs”
Second, the “tougher league” is usually a common exaggeration, and the actual average difference of a pitcher one league to the other is 0.25-0.30 ERA over 200 IP.
Then, “except that Lilly has been tried in the AL East; he’s 4th starter material”. To finish this sentence we should probably add “while Beckett is an inconsistent and injury prone pitcher with control issues” and file it under “thoughts from the distant past”. Luckily, humans have the ability to recognize things dont stay the same. Well, at least most of them do. The biggest difference in Lilly isnt a AL to NL thing though, its a change in repertoire and tendencies thing…
Well isnt that a lot of Hyperbole.
First, “the toughest division” when you play for the Red Sox means “Plays against the Yankees and 3 average to really bad clubs”
Second, the “tougher league” is usually a common exaggeration, and the actual average difference of a pitcher one league to the other is 0.25-0.30 ERA over 200 IP.
Then, “except that Lilly has been tried in the AL East; he’s 4th starter material”. To finish this sentence we should probably add “while Beckett is an inconsistent and injury prone pitcher with control issues” and file it under “thoughts from the distant past”. Luckily, humans have the ability to recognize things dont stay the same. Well, at least most of them do. The biggest difference in Lilly isnt a AL to NL thing though, its a change in repertoire and tendencies thing…
My point was only that their results are not “remarkably similar” at all. Playing a matching game with the digits is not the same as comparing the pitchers’ stats — not in an instructive manner, anyway. They played in different leagues — Beckett in the toughest division of the tougher league. His results are far, far better than Lilly’s.
This would just be (well-backed) speculation except that Lilly has been tried in the AL East; he’s 4th starter material. Or was. Probably wouldn’t even do as well now.
So if a team had absolutely zero other viable options and no need for a quality starter, I suppose replacing Beckett with Lilly would not be horrible. But let’s be clear about what that means: he’s a last resort.
And your point is?
You will notice, no where did I state Lilly is better – I stated the opposite. However, when it comes to actual recent results shown, Lilly has produced identical numbers. And it leads to a situation where if you had to replace Beckett in a rotation, Lilly wouldnt be a horrible option to look at.
Not to nitpick, but Beckett turns 30 in 2010.
I was just about to say that. He was born in 1980.
Beckett is 29, not 32.
Does this means that the Giants can get a decent contract for Lincyoung?
Very creative. Did you come up with that all by yourself? The Gaints do not want to give him 13 mil. They’ll be luck to sign him for 2 free agent years.
Uhm, not really correct.
They dont want to give him 13 Million (and this is the key part) *in his first year of arbitration*. If they did then all of a sudden he would be looking at something near 30 Million by arbitration year 3.
Realistically, he probably shouldnt be making that much more then about 5-6 Million in this, his first year of arbitration. But they offered a low of 8, so it will be at least that much and if they are able to win then they might be able to keep the 3rd year under 20 Million if he keeps up the pace.
I understand that. Isn’t it that on your first your year of arbitration your team has to offer you 40% of what they think you are worth? Isn’t 8 mil 40% of 20 mil? Now I know that 13 mil was exagerating but the back to back cy young winner is worth 25 mil in my book. Therefore, 40% of 25 mil is what? Around 10 mil (I think)? If right away the Giants are lowering his value just because “his velocity dropped 2.3 mph” than I do not see the Giants signing him later for more than 2 free agent years.
Actually, there are no offer restrictions. Any number can be presented (on either side), and the 40% just tends to be the range players end up getting in their first year. Tim is an amazing talent and has produced some really impressive numbers. But we must not forget that it has also happened many times in the past as well, and people can list off plenty of players who had similar starts to their careers. Off the top of my head I can think of Oswalt and Prior and the Martinez Brothers (yeah, both Pedro and Ramon started with comparable numbers) and Willis and Gooden and I know there will be plenty more.
So what’s really important to remember here is the history. The most ever given to a pitcher in his first year of arbitration so far has been 6.25 Million. That went to Papelbon last year when the Red Sox settled with him. Jonathan’s numbers heading into the possible case are just insane. Really, it is arguably the best four year stretch of any closer ever; and it was produced rather consistently over his first four seasons which makes it almost unbelievable.
Then I am pretty sure the most ever awarded to a first year arbitration pitcher in a hearing was Dontrell Willis in 2006. Willis was off 3 seasons of 594 IP with a 3.27 ERA, 46 Wins in 93 starts, 11 Complete Games and 6 Shutouts, a Rookie of the year award, 2 AS appearances and finished 2nd in the Cy Young and 11th in the MVP vote the year prior. Willis ended up being awarded 4.4 million. Lincecum is at 598 Innings, 2.90 ERA, 40 Wins in 89 Starts with 6 Complete and 2 Shutouts, 2 AS, 2 Cy Young, a 23rd place and 18th place MVP voting.
You can see there are really quite a bit of similarities between the two. And honestly, it wouldn’t really be out of line if someone were to claim Willis was every bit as good when focusing on the aspects generally rewarded in an arbitration case.
Roy Oswalt is another name I mentioned above as a pitcher that was about equal to Timmy at the time of their first arbitration season. Oswalt ended up avoiding arbitration at a 3.25 Million salary for 2004. Those two are a couple years ago now, but actually came at a time where salaries were exploding instead of declining like today.
When looking at history you can get the feeling that a hearing may have returned a 2010 salary as low as even 6-7 MM, and honestly I wouldnt be surprised at all if the 8 MM Giants offer won before a panel.
As far as how it affects the teams ability to sign him longterm; I don’t think it will much. Lincecum must know this is a formality and history indicates a salary more in line with what the Giants are offering then the 13 MM he is requesting. That said, it is pretty rare for a pitcher to sign a contract extending past the first 2-3 years of FA anyway, so it is not out of line to say Lincecum would only sign for the first 2 years of free agency. I would say the same.
Can I just say this. This was talked about on an earlier post. Yusmeiro Petit was DFA’d today. We were all criticizing the Mets for not getting Dana Eveland. Omar Minaya, If you read this, find a way to claim or trade for Yusmiero Petit. If you dont, myself and all of my MLBTR allies will spend another day talking about why the Mets have a struggling organization.
“Omar Minaya…find a way to claim or trade for Yusmiero Petit. If you dont, myself and all of my MLBTR allies will spend another day talking about why the Mets have a struggling organization.
Oh yeah….and we’re already into extra innings as it is….
No offense, but if the Mets are clamoring just to get Yusmeiro Petit, ye of about 2hr every 9 innings, there’s some sort of desperation then.
Beckett just got 4 years/$42MM from the Red Sox and he did that deal at a discount to stay with a good club he could win on. He stayed, he won, he’s earned his $42 million at a discount for the club and now he wants Free Agent money, not club-friendly money. He also seems to have an ego, not that there’s anything wrong with that. He rightfully believes he is a premier pitcher who isn’t a rookie or in arbitration and so he wants his money.
I say 5 years/$90MM
I think Beckett is a bit like Papelbon in that the money is about respect, not so much about Money. If Papelbon was truely about every last dollar, he would have gone to arbitration the last 2 years. Instead once the Sox offered him more than any other reliever they got a deal done quickly – that is all Papelbon wanted, to be paid at a level that proves how good he is.
Beckett I think is the same. If the Sox offer a deal similar to Lackey but a touch more money (postseason record) then I think I deal gets done quickly – I don’t think he is after every last dollar, if he gets good enough money that respects him then it will happen. I remember when he signed that extension which was 3/30 at the 12 million option – he left money on the table (Burnett just got 5/55 that he wasn’t really worth, Beckett could easily have bettered that – and Beckett just noted that his deal was still more money than he had ever earned and he had been ok so far.
I think your 5/90 is not too far off to be honest. THE ONLY PROBLEM with that is how Beckett reacts to potential language protecting the Sox from injury. They put it in Drews contract, that was ok, they put it in Lackey’s deal (6th year at league minimum if he misses significant time for shoulder injury) that was fine, tried to put it in Bay’s extension and that killed that deal.. so interesting to see how Beckett reacts.
Good points, Quint. I don’t think Beckett has spent too much time on the DL and doesn’t have a history of serious and/or recurring injuries. They can’t use that to control negotiations. As others have pointed out, there is nobody out there through free agency that will be able to replace what he gives them. He’s also out for money, obviously. I’m not a Red Sox fan so I’d love to see him hold them over the flame and ask for 6 years/$120MM or something. I think they’ll settle on 5 years/$100MM or somewhere in that range. If they do it that’s a huge vote of confidence on the part of the Sox, though. They’ve handed out some big contracts and offered some big contracts, but I believe the last contract they handed out that was HUGE was Manny- 10 years ago. So anyway, yeah….my two cents.
“As others have pointed out, there is nobody out there through free agency that will be able to replace what he gives them.”
They won’t necessarily need someone to replace what he provides. Not all of it, anyway. That said, I’d like to see Beckett resigned.
“Beckett just got 4 years/$42MM from the Red Sox and he did that deal at a discount to stay with a good club he could win on”
Actually, he signed it during his first season with the Sox, and the day before he signed it his ERA was over 5.00; so maybe it was more about the guaranteed 42m when he was going through a crappy season?
“Sentinel praises GM Doug Melvin for stocking up on hurlers this offseason. Free agent pickups Randy Wolf and Doug Davis were brought aboard to help support Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra, and Yovani Gallardo.”
Who is Sentinel?…and he praises the “stocking up” with the likes of Wolf and Davis to “help” Dave Bush and Jeff Suppan? Are you kidding me?
It’s the Journal Sentinel and that is Milwaukee’s newspaper. And with Gallardo, Wolf and Davis (and hopefully an improved Manny Parra) atop the rotation, they are much improved from last year. Not to mention the bullpen is shaping up very nicely) Even if the pitching staff is just average, they can probably win about 10 more games than last year, which puts them right in the playoff picture. Remember, this is a team that won 80 games with the worst pitching in baseball. Imagine what they could have done with average pitching…
It’s the Journal Sentinel and that is Milwaukee’s newspaper. And with Gallardo, Wolf and Davis (and hopefully an improved Manny Parra) atop the rotation, they are much improved from last year. Not to mention the bullpen is shaping up very nicely) Even if the pitching staff is just average, they can probably win about 10 more games than last year, which puts them right in the playoff picture. Remember, this is a team that won 80 games with the worst pitching in baseball. Imagine what they could have done with average pitching…
“praises GM Doug Melvin for stocking up on hurlers this offseason. Free agent pickups Randy Wolf and Doug Davis were brought aboard to help support Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra,”
Yeah, but too bad Quality is better than Quantity……………… Mabye the B-Crew can also bring back Looper, Torres, and Gagne while they’re busy stocking up on mediocre budget pitchers.
I’d say Wolf is a cut above mediocre, and not exactly a “budget pitcher”. Davis arguably is slightly above average as well.
I was going to make a remark about Gallardo being their only ‘stuff’ pitcher, Hoffman’s smoke and mirrors act, yada, yada, yada……………….
And then I recall that my team was destroyed in detail by Clayton Kershaw’s embryo, Randy Wolf, and Vincente Padilla.