Raise your hand if you had Florida's Chris Coghlan as your preseason NL ROY pick. I'm not seeing too many hands! I'll make the conventional pick for 2010 with Jason Heyward, but here's a bigger field to consider:
Jason Heyward, Stephen Strasburg, Aroldis Chapman, Buster Posey, Pedro Alvarez, Alcides Escobar, Madison Bumgarner, Starlin Castro, Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, Jason Castro, Jenrry Mejia, Jhoulys Chacin, Mike Leake, Fernando Martinez, Mat Gamel, Drew Storen, Andrew Cashner, Mike Stanton, Jay Jackson, Jose Tabata, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Eric Young Jr., David Freese, Ian Desmond, Jaime Garcia, Lance Lynn, Jon Niese, Yonder Alonso, Brad Lincoln, Travis Wood, Daniel McCutchen, Tommy Manzella, Scott Elbert
Let us know additional names to consider, as well as your picks.
Tyler Colvin
One hec of a spring right?
After what happened yesterday, I’m poised to say Mike Leake, but I’m going to say Jason Heyward. Although, Jason Castro is going to have a hugr rookie season in his own right.
i agree with you Mike Leake is having a hella of a spring and im pretty sure he has that 5th roation spot in his hands, he has good control and poise almost reminds me if a right handed Andy Pettitte because you dont have to have a high 90’s fastball to be great
I wouldn’t mind even going as far as Greg Maddux.
Yea i think he can have a tremendous career and he actually reminds me sorta if maddux with his pinpoint location and offspeed stuff , the reds have alot of talent to be happy with in the farm/ on the bubble of major league and most of them are ready for the majors
Tyler Colvin? The “25 lbs of muscle” story is a fun one, but he still went 74 plate appearances without a single walk this spring. NOT A SINGLE WALK. Scouting reports are going to catch up with his stronger swing and his not-at-all-improved plate discipline is going to be his undoing.
Tyler Colvin
Ike Davis if he gets called up early enough
that’s who I was going to say as well- no, not saying he is better or even as good as some of the above names, but he fits a need on his team’s ML level, his strength is the sort of thing that impresses voters (power), and playing in the NY market definitely helps. If he comes up, and it’s early enough that he can hit 25-30 HR’s for the Mets, that would make him a strong candidate.
25-30 HRs playing at your guys staidum…highly unlikely…
Especially for a rookie.
the effect of Citi is over-rated, the Mets themselves just sucked at hitting homeruns last year.
didn’t they move the fences in at Citi?
no, they just lowered one portion, but they should have.
Ike Davis if he gets called up early enough
Cincinnati’s Juan Francisco…if he can figure out how NOT to be Adam Dunn, a one-dimensional power-hitter.
Cincinnati’s Juan Francisco…if he can figure out how NOT to be Adam Dunn, a one-dimensional power-hitter.
Most predictions will say Heyward, and it’s hard to disagree, but I think Drew Storen has a good chance as well. I don’t see Capps and Bruney as legit closing options in Washington, so Storen and his lights-out stuff could get a chance early on, leaving plenty of time for an Andrew Bailey-like run at RotY.
Obviously, Heyward is the easy favorite, but I think if he falters or has a so-so rookie campaign (which IS possible folks, given his limited experience above Class-AA), Storen could sneak in. Strasburg is also a definite possibility, as is Aroldis Chapman if he’s up by June.
1. Heyward
2. Storen
3. Chapman
4. Strasburg
5. Gaby Sanchez
Sure, we’ll go with that list.
I’m going to say Heyward is going to have a high strikeout rate. Scouts have said he strides into his swing which is an indicator that he’ll have a tough time with those off-speed pitches, he might not live up to the hype but he has potential…
1.Strasburg
2.Heyward
3.Posey
4.Gaby Sanchez
5.Dan Runzler (who I believe is still a rookie)
He’s never had a high strikeout rate. If there was glaring hole in his swing as simple as an inability to hit offspeed pitches, opposing teams would have picked up on it by now.
Major league pitching is a lot different from the minors because of video playback and the surplus of talent. We’ll see how his plate discipline measures up when he faces the league for the first time, and believe me I’m not saying he won’t have plate discipline but his rookie year he’s going to have huge bumps in the season handling pitching.
Sure, Heyward has 138 K and 105 BB in 876 career minor league at bats, but, yeah…I bet he will have a high strikeout rate [sarcasm].
The biggest thing that they talk about on him is his eye and plate discipline (and this is more than one unnamed scout, this is literally his best known skill), so even if he’s not great at hitting offspeed, he probably won’t be chasing too many offspeed out of the zone, which is the biggest part of not striking out on offspeed pitches.
If he does have a problem adjusting speeds to off-speed pitches, my guess is that he would just put balls in play, but without good contact.
But for some one-line scouting report to be some sort of evidence that he’s all of the sudden going to strike out a lot, is kind of a joke.
It’s interesting that you mention Runzler. He was lights out towards the end of last season (not to mention the rest of the year in the minors). He will definitely get plenty of action this year, which is not something you can say for most of they guys listed above.
yeah Runzler has a higher chance of capturing the award, because of his “stuff.” Huge strikeout rate and he is a horse. In spring training he had 2 strikeouts an inning if he’s brought into 60 games and produces a 1.50-2.00 ERA with 80 strikeouts he’ll have a higher chance of winning the ROY
I love love love Runzler, but the Giants have a definite bromance with Sergio Romo. Between Romo, Affeldt, and Wilson, I don’t know if Runzler will see enough high leverage play to get serious consideration for ROY.
I’d like to see Runzler kick ass and take over the closer role and we trade Brian Wilson for a bat
No love for Stanton?
Most predictions will say Heyward, and it’s hard to disagree, but I think Drew Storen has a good chance as well. I don’t see Capps and Bruney as legit closing options in Washington, so Storen and his lights-out stuff could get a chance early on, leaving plenty of time for an Andrew Bailey-like run at RotY.
Obviously, Heyward is the easy favorite, but I think if he falters or has a so-so rookie campaign (which IS possible folks, given his limited experience above Class-AA), Storen could sneak in. Strasburg is also a definite possibility, as is Aroldis Chapman if he’s up by June.
1. Heyward
2. Storen
3. Chapman
4. Strasburg
5. Gaby Sanchez
Sure, we’ll go with that list.
everyone knows that it is going to come down to two players Heyward or Strasburg. It should be a good race if Strasburg gets called up earlier enough
Strasburg may not be up before June and Heyward looks great, but injuries, prolonged slumps, etc. could change that prediction for this year. Since ATL already has 3 “could be on most teams” starting OF’s besides Heyward, if he struggles, he may get sent back down. He is still my top choice because that is the same for all rookies, but going with guys with guaranteed opening day assignments is the best option. But none are locks. Here are my top 5.
1. Heyward
2. Escobar
3. Sanchez
4. Freese
5. A pitcher who will be up all year – Chapman, Garcia, Niese or Bumgarner
Bumgarner was already sent down, also.
Strasburg may not be up before June and Heyward looks great, but injuries, prolonged slumps, etc. could change that prediction for this year. Since ATL already has 3 “could be on most teams” starting OF’s besides Heyward, if he struggles, he may get sent back down. He is still my top choice because that is the same for all rookies, but going with guys with guaranteed opening day assignments is the best option. But none are locks. Here are my top 5.
1. Heyward
2. Escobar
3. Sanchez
4. Freese
5. A pitcher who will be up all year – Chapman, Garcia, Niese or Bumgarner
everyone knows that it is going to come down to two players Heyward or Strasburg. It should be a good race if Strasburg gets called up earlier enough
As a Pirate fan I’d like to say Pedro Alvarez, but I’m going to say Madison Bumgarner. He is just straight filthy.
I’m sorry, but Bumgarner isn’t winning any award when he is thowing 85 with Bo secondary pitches…
oops meant to reply…his last outing he was in the 90’s and slowly approaching his norm…he wouldn’t have a fantastic minor league record if he wasn’t good. it was all mechanical with him. It takes power pitchers a while to get back velocity at the start, just look at Lincecum yesterday he threw 94 pitches averaging around 93-94 mph
I havent heard any reports since he was sent down, so I cant comment on his recent work.
However, you cannot say it was just a mechanical thing because this has been going on since last May… almost a full year. I doubt it took the Giants a full year to find a mechanical flaw.
And the only way that Bumgarner and Lincecum should be compared is because they came up in the same organization. Lincecum came in, and was in the majors in months. Bumgarner has dominated the minors thus far, but has little to no secondary offerings and lost his velocity for a full year. While Bumgarner, if he develops a couple secondary pitches and is back to throwing 94(for me, it should be more than one start before saying ‘HE’S BACK!’), he may have similar potential, but Bumgarner has way too many questions right now
Meh. If his velocity is still down in June, then people can worry. ST isn’t even over yet.
That’s what SF fans said in Sept. “eh, it’s the end of the year, if his velocity is down in ST, we should worry.” I realize you want to give him the benefit of the doubt, but common
bad*
I’m sorry, but Bumgarner isn’t winning any award when he is thowing 85 with Bo secondary pitches…
How about Houston’s Bud Norris?
He could be good, but I don’t think he qualifies as a rookie. Few too many innings last year.
He could be good, but I don’t think he qualifies as a rookie. Few too many innings last year.
depending on how early he comes up, strasburg should be right there with heyward. i think it’ll be one of those two, with heyward having the edge because the braves will be a better team and he’ll get more exposure.
depending on how early he comes up, strasburg should be right there with heyward. i think it’ll be one of those two, with heyward having the edge because the braves will be a better team and he’ll get more exposure.
I want to pick someone beside Heyward (because I’m a hipster and fight mainstream trends), but I can’t convince myself anyone will be better.
I want to pick someone beside Heyward (because I’m a hipster and fight mainstream trends), but I can’t convince myself anyone will be better.
1–Calling up Strasburg or Storen early enough to be ROY eligible would be dumb.
2–I see Heyward as the clear favorite, especially since he’s opening day RF, with Mejia in the conversation if he makes the opening day roster and stays up(although he shouldn’t)
strasburg and storen will both be up by early june, count on that. and that would be early enough for either of them to pile up enough stats to get the votes.
btw, there’s no “ROY eligibility” date. it’s really about being up early enough to compile stats and influence a team enough to influence the voters at the end of the season.
no such thing as ROY eligible- in fact, a player could technically win ROY more than once, if they could some how win the first award without using up their eligibility- it’s never happened, but I believe there have been players who have gotten votes in more than one year
there is no ROY eligibility but you said ” if they could some how win the first award without using up their eligibility”? c’mon man!
unlikely, but possible… imagine a year with no great candidates, where a rookie is given the job of closer right off the bat out of spring training- utterly dominates for a month, something like 10 for 10 saves, 0.00 ERA, 18K’s in 12 innings, then gets hurt, misses a couple of months, comes back in mid- Augst and dominates again, finishes the year under 50 innings pitched, and had less than 45 days on the active roster prior to September 1st.
Again, not likely… but Gregg Jefferies came in 6th in 1988 with only 29 games played, 109 ABs, and was eligible again the next year and finished 3rd, so it is certainly not impossible.
no such thing as ROY eligible- in fact, a player could technically win ROY more than once, if they could some how win the first award without using up their eligibility- it’s never happened, but I believe there have been players who have gotten votes in more than one year
1–Calling up Strasburg or Storen early enough to be ROY eligible would be dumb.
2–I see Heyward as the clear favorite, especially since he’s opening day RF, with Mejia in the conversation if he makes the opening day roster and stays up(although he shouldn’t)
You mentioned two of the top Cubs prospects in Castro and Cashner, but keep your eye on Tyler Colvin. He tore it up in the Grapefruit League and was originally not considered in the mix for making the big league club. Piniella has promised to start him about three times a week, and if he continues pounding the ball, and soriano or fukudome struggle again, this guy could be an everyday corner outfielder at Wrigley
“keep your eye on Tyler Colvin. He tore it up in the Grapefruit League”
With a 20.2 K%, not a single walk and a .561 BAbip.
Youre better off expecting him to do very little this season – his preseason wasnt good at all, just lucky.
You mentioned two of the top Cubs prospects in Castro and Cashner, but keep your eye on Tyler Colvin. He tore it up in the Grapefruit League and was originally not considered in the mix for making the big league club. Piniella has promised to start him about three times a week, and if he continues pounding the ball, and soriano or fukudome struggle again, this guy could be an everyday corner outfielder at Wrigley
How about Tyler Colvin?
Agreed. If anyone on the Cubs has a shot at ROY it would be Colvin and not Castro. I don’t see Castro getting called up this year without injuries to Theriot, Fontenot, or Baker. If Colvin stays on a tear throughout April, I think he can stay on the big league club and steal some starts from Soriano or Fukudome.
How is Colvin being viewed as a ROY when he is going to be coming off the bench? Colvin had a great spring. He gained muscle weight and worked hard in the offseason. I’m routing for the kid because the Cubs could use some outfield help from the left side. I am not thinking ROY though. First, he still has some things to work out. Second, he will not get the ABs or playing time needed to qualify. The Cubs would have to bench an outfielder in the first couple of months AND let Colvin play the rest of the way AND he would have to tear it up. Fukudome has shown to start strong until sometime in June rolls around, plus his salary. They won’t bench or platoon him until maybe the second half. Too late for ROY stats by then. They will remove Soriano late in a close game, but you are not going to bench his salary. They just signed Byrd, so he will not be replaced this year. Colvin will move around out there late in games or off the bench. He may steal some starts and get some playing time if he produces. There is no place for him as a regular right now. Therefore, no real chance of ROY status. Let’s see how Colvin adjusts during the year and hope he can fill in/spot start and produce when needed. Right now, he is a 4th or 5th outfielder.
Escobar and it won’t be close.
Is it safe to say that Alcides Escobar will “run” away with it? I think not. Although he did have a good winter league, and Miller Park is hitter-friendly… hmmm… intriguing pick.
Well, I may not have selected Coughlan last year for ROY, but I drafted him for my fantasy team, that should count for something.
Well, I may not have selected Coughlan last year for ROY, but I drafted him for my fantasy team, that should count for something.
gotta go with Heyward but Strasburgh, Bumgarner, and Alvarez are gonna be close.
What about Pittsburgh’s Brad Lincoln? IF they don’t play the super 2 game. He’s been awfully quiet in spring Training.
Somebody on the Marlins.
I thought they were guaranteed to win it every year their payroll doesn’t get above profit sharing levels.
It’s going to be Mike Stanton. On a talent level just behind Heyward. Played excellent during the spring. And the Marlins will ease him into the majors, probably by Mid-May, when he’ll get his confidence level to full power in the minors with some minor tweaks to his existing skills. Additionally, the pressure will be off of him and he can do his stuff under the radar of high expectations.
All eyes will be on Heyward. But Stanton will deliver the goods. Strasburgh second, Heyward third.
Another ROY for the Marlins.
Golden Spikes winner to Minor League MVP to R.O.Y. Buster Posey!!
I’ll go a different route and take F-Mart…great looking swing, and hey, something’s gotta go write for the Mets.
assuming he gets the opportunity
With Daniel Murphy out indefinitly ( all Met injuries are indefinite til proven healthy )
Chris Carter could be a darkhorse candidate if Jacobs falters…I dont think they will bring up Ike Davis til he proves he can mash AAA LHP…same goes for F-Mart…only way F-Mart comes up is if Frenchy craps the bed…to me this is a make or break season for Frenchy..
If Frenchy learns discipline…he can hit .280 with 25HR and 90 RBI…if not…well we’ve seen what Frenchy minus discipline looks like…
1 – Reyes
2 – Castillo
3 – Wright
4 – Beltran
5 – Bay
6 – Carter/Jacobs
7 – Frenchy
8 – Barajas
9 – Pitcher
3 Switch Hitters, 1 Lefty, 4 Righties…
Nice to see 5 Reds on that list.
I’m going with Leake.
There are actually 6 Reds on the list. But I was certainly sharing your excitement (Reds included Aroldis Chapman, Mike Leake, Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Yonder Alonso, and Travis Wood). I wouldn’t have that many on my short list. I would have Either Leake or Wood, I don’t think that we will see them in the same rotation this year. I am inclined to think that Leake will be the fifth man out of the gate (which would vault him to the top of my list of picks), Heisey, and Chapman. I don’t think that Frazier will see time until September, barring a mid season collapse that has the Reds as sellers at the break. Alonso has no where to go. Votto is a mainstay at first and that is all Alonso plays.
Ike Davis should be a candidate with the Murphy injury.
Heyward or Storen will win IMO.
I don’t even care anymore. Tommy Hanson and Gordon Beckham should have won last year and I’m still pissed about that.
Easy. Jason Heyward.
Buster Posey will win… He is gonna get called up in 1st of june, and absolutely kill it… The kid is gamer and just flat out knows how to hit… He has a better approach than Heyward, and goes gap to gap a lot better… Heyward may have the higher ceiling, but I think posey is much more polished already… I think Heyward has the edge because he is going to be starting from day 1, but posey is as good as a pick as any of them…
Posey has a good chance like you said because he’s more polished because of his college experience. I really think Runzler has the best chance for ROY even though he is a reliever and if B-Weezy goes down Runzler will shut down the league and rack up the saves and strikeouts.
Heyward has the talent, confidence, mentality, and a great mentor to go along with the fact that he’s starting from day 1. He’ll run away with it, but Escobar will have a nice season, and guys like Posey, Strasburg, and Stanton will have stats that if over 162 games and not 110 would have made it closer.
Pedro Alvarez. He’s under-hyped, and following McCutchen’s trend will be up June 5th (write that down) to avoid Super Two.
He comps pretty closely to Longoria, and if he can hit 20 HR from June to Sept he’ll definitely be in the hunt. It will just be difficult if Heyward hits 25+ HR, which shouldn’t be a stretch for him in a full season…
How about Mat Latos? Limited to only 150 innings but he did just pick up the 5th starter role in San Diego and he’ll be pitching in a fantastic pitchers park
great pick assuming hes eligible
I just checked and he misses eligibility by 2/3 of an inning
If Raul Ibanez is playing very poorly or is hurt by June, I could see a call up of Dom Brown.
Man, some people on here have no idea what they are talking about. This is no question Heyward’s award to lose. Personally, I think he runs away with it without question because there is simply no one anywhere close to his talent level in this year’s rookie market. I agree that Storen and Chapman and Escobar will be pretty good, but not on the same level as this guy. He has incredible discipline, bat speed and maturity. He will run away with this thing.
There’s also the fact that ESPN hasn’t shut up about Heyward since January. I don’t doubt that he could be a singular talent, the next Albert Pujols or whatever you want to call him, but he’s so over-exposed at this point I see him racking up a lot of votes even if he has a somewhat pedestrian line for the season.
Phillies prospect Dominic Brown, Anyone? Granted, The Fightins’ outfield is ca little crowded with three all-stars, but that doesn’t rule out injury, trade (Ibanez to clear cap space for Werth, possibly,) or simply ineffectiveness (Ibanez’s notable 127 ave). Brown was rated the 15th best prospect in the game by Baseball America. In 11 Grapefruit League games, Brown hit .417, with 8 RBI’s and .750 SLG with a .464 OBP, in 24 at-bats. Kid looks really good and seems ready now. He’ll start in the minors because the Phil’s love that service time clause, but if he can find somewhere to play, he could cause some competition. Anyone with me?
Mat Latos
Sp for the Padres
I believe the ROY will be anyone who receives a full season’s worth of innings or PA. That puts players like Escobar, Freese, Garcia, etc. a leg up because they will be talked about from day 1 and have numbers to go with the talk/speculation. I think Hayward will falter due to the pressure to produce (Atlanta is going to rely on him). He will have stretches of excellence, but it will be difficult over an entire season. Players like Escobar, Freese, and Garcia are not expected to be highly productive for the team to be successful. When you have supporting casts of Braun and Fielder in Milwaukee, and Pujols and Holliday to take the heat in for Freese, and Wainwright and Carpenter for Garcia, the emphasis to be the best isn’t there, which reduces the pressure and allows them to just play the game.
escobar will have some pressure. he will be the leadoff hitter or #2. not sure if they will stick with ricky weeks in leadoff or not.
Weeks will be the leadoff hitter if he stays healthy. I think he’d be better off somewhere lower in the lineup, but I don’t think Melvin and Macha will move him.
My vote goes to Heyward, with Escobar a close second. With defense being all the rage lately, I could see that working in Escobar’s favor.
Kyle Blanks Or Mat Latos
Kyle Blanks Or Mat Latos
lance lynn won’t be up this year. im 75% positive he won’t even get a midseason call-up.
Just to throw a different name out there – Jaime Garcia. If he sticks the year in the Cardinals rotation, he could get double-digit wins with good Ks and strong peripherals.
David Freese, he’s getting a chance to start at third in a very cushy lineup with cards. He’s had an alright spring but he is a very smart player for his age.
Thanks for including Jhoulys “the machine” Chacin but he won’t get a call anytime soon (barring early injury) and when a replacement starter is needed, he might not get the first call for the Rockies as the Rockies are packed with quality starting pitching prospects that are near ready. (wow, never thought I’d ever say that!)
This is heavy bias, but Heyward.
For the Cards, if Lynn is on the list, you might as well have Craig. Craig is breaking camp with the ballclub and projects a solid bat. There’s just nowhere to play him with Pujols and Holliday. Another Brett Wallace type I think.
Alvarez.
I would have to go with Heyward, especially with him breaking camp in the bigs. I do think that Strasburg and Chapman will put up some numbers this year to get some votes but the real contenders for NL ROY would be Buster Posey and Pedro Alvarez, but Heyward claims it by spending more time in the Bigs.
Alcides Escobar all day. Hitting before Braun and Prince makes everything easier.
Ty Colvin of the Cubs…or any of the three rookies in the bullpen, especially E. Caridad
ummm…they list niese whos doin okay as a rooke but no way anything spectacular. mejia who was doin okay as a reliever but is in the minors becoming a starter again and fernando martinez who hasnt played a game in the majors but no mention of ike davis the best mets rookie to come up and play this well in his rookie season since reyes/wright
ummm…they list niese whos doin okay as a rooke but no way anything spectacular. mejia who was doin okay as a reliever but is in the minors becoming a starter again and fernando martinez who hasnt played a game in the majors but no mention of ike davis the best mets rookie to come up and play this well in his rookie season since reyes/wright
A legitimate contender for ROTL NL: John Axford Milwaukee Brewers Closer
1 legit pick would be jonny venters for the braves. even though hes just a reliever he is a straight beast and has the 2nd lowest era and 8th most strikeouts in the mlb. but besides him its definately the HEY TRAIN
Jaime Garcia… lowest ERA Among Rookies… He is on fire this year… Strasburg was is having too many issues and only has a couple starts left… GO CARDS!!!!
As soon as Starlin Castro gets enough at bats (assuming no injuries) he will jump to the front of the pack.
sorry, Castro isnt even second this year.
In my opinion Buster Posey deserves ROY. He has the highest BA along with slugging at .524. he has 16 homers in 372 at bats. he has a higher avg in batting and slugging percentage than Heyward with less than half the strikeouts. for example take Mike Stanton. He has less at bats than Posey but is lower in all categories except BB and homers. in terms of value to the team you play for there hasnt been a more valuable player than Posey.
Plus, he had a lengthy hitting streak (21 games), plus he’s been calling the games during the pitching staff’s historic September streak (18 games) of allowing less than three runs. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8402
Plus, he had a lengthy hitting streak (21 games), plus he’s been calling the games during the pitching staff’s historic September streak (18 games) of allowing less than three runs. http://www.baseball-reference.com/blog/archives/8402
Jason Heyward probable is going to be the rookie of the year for the NL
GOOOOOOOOOOOO BBBBRRRRAAAAVVVVEEEESSSS!!!!!!!!