A swing through the Phillies page of Cot's Baseball Contracts illustrates an interesting approach by the team: they've freely given out extra contract years to many players when it did not appear necessary or prudent. The examples:
- Ryan Howard, already signed through 2011, was extended through 2016 in April of this year.
- Jamie Moyer, a Type A free agent after a fine 2008 season, was not offered arbitration but instead given a two-year deal.
- Cole Hamels, a Super Two player who was arbitration-eligible for the first time, signed a three-year, $20.5MM deal. He's pitched well, but did the Phillies save significant money in giving up the chance to go year-to-year? This was as player-friendly as pitcher extensions get.
- Placido Polanco, a Type A free agent, was not offered arbitration by the Tigers. I took this to mean the Tigers felt Polanco would have no trade value on a one-year deal, so why did the Phillies sign him for three?
- Joe Blanton, arbitration-eligible for 2010, signed a three-year deal in January buying out two free agent seasons at the market rate. Was this some kind of payroll manipulation, since $6MM of Blanton's $7MM salary this year came in the form of a signing bonus?
- Free agent reliever Danys Baez, coming off a middling season for the Orioles, got a two-year deal. Similar pitchers signed one-year deals.
- Free agent backup catcher Brian Schneider, coming off a terrible season, received two years.
- Bench player Ross Gload, coming off an unimpressive campaign, surprisingly received two years. He's hit well in 116 plate appearances, however.
- Bench player Greg Dobbs, arbitration-eligible for the first time, received a two-year deal. Why not go year-to-year with a guy like this?
- The Phillies exercised the 2011 club option for shortstop Jimmy Rollins a year early.
- The multiyear contracts don't end there, but it seems unfair to call the Phillies out for the rest. The remaining deals either saved the team decent money, or were of a length necessary to lock up the player as a free agent.
Poisonous Halloween candy.
What is this in response to? I kind of figured that was pretty well-known by now that RAJ has been loose with his contract lengths, for better or for (probably) worse.
The Dobbs DFA made me think about it, and I just wanted to see exactly how extensive it was.
I think the Ibanez contract and Polanco contract have each had one too many years on them. But two of the more prominent deals stand out to me:
– Hamels was unhappy with the Phillies after 2007 when they opted to pay him $500k before his arbitration kicked in, so I view his deal as partly in response to that. Based on his performance, Hamels is out-pitching his contract and Fangraphs agrees (fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&posit…).
– Howard was signed before there was an opportunity to see Fielder or Pujols sign deals, which depending on how their new deals fall, could change our opinions on Howard’s contract. Granted there was very little hometown discount, the Phillies essentially locked up the face of their franchise with this deal.
I think more surprising than contract length (standard operating procedure seems to be three-year deals) is the timing of these signings. Both Polanco and Ibanez signed early in the off-season signing periods, while Howard’s deal was finalized early in this season. At times when it would seem the Phillies should have more leverage, they are signing somewhat player-friendly deals in terms of both years, but more importantly, dollars.
I don’t see any way Howard lives up to the contract.
He lives up to it by knocking in 140 and cracking 40 per year avg.
the title is kind of offensive to the phillies. their moves have paid off, they are the best team in baseball, and they dont even have howard and utley.
the howard, polanco and hamels moves were fine..
the rollins move was puzzling, the baez/dobbs/schneider/blanton deals were questionable.
but the phillies remain the class of the NL and maybe second in the MLB.
you’re joking, right?
haha yeah big, big joke.
lol thank god.
Joking about what??? They are the class of the league. Theyre rewarding the fans for spending 8 million a game at the bank. Whats the Joke?? You can pick each teams payroll apart. Arod Made 33million, noones ripping him. They got polly for 5 mil!! 5 MIL!!!! Blantons deal was a joke, as was Moyers but as long as they keep winning divisions pennants and world series, they have the right to spend how they please
The Phillies aren’t even the best team in the NL East!!
yup and Omar Minaya deserves all the credit for getting the Mets to be the class of the NL East. so glad he is 100% coming back next season!!!!
Did you just totally discount the Braves? They’re leading the division, you know. Stop sipping on the haterade and come back to reality – both the Mets and the Phillies are chasing the Braves for the NL East division.
The Mets are chasing the Braves for the division? News to me.
Theoretically, yes. Whether they have a chance or not… that’s a different story.
Haha, touche.
People are freakin Idiots that talk likethey know baseball. GM’s are drooling when they watch Phillies home games, and as long as they put contenders out there, THEYRE GONNA SELL OUT, AND AS LONG AS THEY SELL OUT, THEYRE GONNA PAY BIG, AND AS LONG AS THEY PAY BIG, THEYRE GONNA CONTEND
And who is einstein??
Best in baseball but second in the NL East.
The phillies have been plagued with the injury bug. they lost rollins in the first week of the season, and then utley, followed by howard and victorino. (not to mention polanco for about 2 weeks)
the braves are good, no doubt about it but when you look at it, the phillies have the best talent.
the phillies are second in the NL East with a lineup that looked like this for a week
Gload
Valdez
Ibanez
Howard
Werth
Francisco
Ruiz
Castro
Pitcher
Braves players on the DL this year – Jair, Medlen, Diaz, Prado, Chipper, and Medlen. Last two out for the year. Say what you wish, but the braves have been hit just as hard by the injury bug
Heyward also saw DL time, don’t forget.
sorry 2nd name shouldve been Heyward
Jair, Heyward, Diaz, Prado, Chipper, and Medlen
Diaz is a backup, Chipper Jones is past his prime, and Omar Infante’s surprising (but deserved) All-Star season means the Braves have no trouble covering for Prado and Chipper. The Braves haven’t even come close to the injuries the Phillies have had. Wilson Valdez has been starting almost every game for the Phillies this season. WILSON VALDEZ, I say.
yeah, okay. None of those guys matter. Jair is a #2 starter, Medlen was our #3 starter, Chipper has a .924OPS since the break, Heyward is our best OF’r and Prado led the league in multi hit games. You’re saying the Braves injuries dont matter as much because their bench was stronger. We’ve just had better replacements, but to think the Braves injuries arent that bad is just comical.
prado was out for 10 days please… they only put him on the dl so they could grab a bench guy. The Phillies have had out at one point or another: ruiz, schneider (played with 2 AAA catchers for a period) Howard Utley Rollins Polanco Victorino, Moyer, Lidge, Madson, Blanton… please
Jair out hurt tho for sure, and Chipper out is very unfortunate and no doubt a blow. ESPN reported the Braves are trying to trade for D.Lee which should scare the nl east.
You just named six players. Not to mention, Chipper just happened! So they had him for all this time they’ve been in first. Try losing Utley, Howard, Jimmy (twice), Polanco, Ruiz, Victorino, Madson, Lidge, Happ, Schneider, Durbin, Moyer (also for the season), Blanton, Romero, and Bastardo. Let’s see.. our two lefties in the pen, our closer, our back-up closer/8th inning guy, three starting pitchers, a dependable 7th inning reliever, did I miss anyone? OH YEAH! Six our our eight starters and our back up catcher! So let’s compare.. Jair = Moyer, Diaz = Schneider, Prado = Polanco (and I’m being pretty generous there), Medlen = Happ, Heyward = Victorino, I guess I’ll say Chipper = Jimmy since he brings the leadership and still a feared hitter in that line-up. So try losing five of your bullpen guys, another starter, your catcher (because Ruiz is just as good as McCann this year), and then, two of the most feared hitters in baseball. You’re still nine players short and two of those players are unmatchable by anyone on your team.
Phillies have had 15 players on the DL.. playing ONLY 9 games this Entire season with their opening day line-up..
And yet we still are just a series sweep away from taking back 1st place…
Phillies are the two time reigning NL Champions… Until they lose that title, they are the best team in the NL.
Phillies injuries this year, Howard, Utley, Rollins, Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Rollins again, Polanco, Ruiz, Schneider, Happ, Polanco again, Blanton, Moyer, ………. 17 players on the dl, lost 600 games from injuries. Not even close, and the braves lost Chipper and Prado at the end of the season
Sorry, Mike, but the Bravos have actually lost more days to the DL than the Phillies. Not a valid excuse for them being in 2nd.
The reason the Phils are in 2nd isn’t because of injuries. The Braves have played very well and The Phil’s offense was missing for a chunk of the year, even when everyone was healhy. How many games left to play? Braves 43 Phils 42. Lots of Baseball.
1 week =/= 162 games
Well.. mostly due to playing in a division w/ the Mets, Marlins, and Nats… Have you even seen a Braves-Phillies game even at Citizens Bank? The Braves run around their bases all day
for now
Yeah??? According to who???
You’re missing the point of the article. Howard and Hamels were already under control for this year and Polanco could have been had for this year without giving him 2 more years. What they do this year is irrelevant.
The Phillies aren’t even the class of their own division. Even with Howard and Utley, the Braves were ahead of them and in first place.
The Howard deal is already one of the worst contracts in baseball. You can’t judge Polanco’s deal yet. He was overpaid in years and dollars to switch positions. People were saying last year that the Ibanez deal was a great deal after one half, but look at him now. There’s more to a contract than just one good year.
The Baez, Dobbs, and Schneider moves were all terrible.
The Phillies are hardly a lock as the “second-best team in the Majors.”
Whatever. The Phillies have been notoriously cheap throughout most of their history. I really could care less if they’re overpaying now… at least they’re spending money on trying to win, unlike 60% of the teams in the MLB.
worst contracts in baseball?????…..i can name atleast 10 worse than howards…….a-roid, barry zito, vernon wells, carlos silva, gary matthews jr, and i can go on
plus mark texeira, and john lackey
NYY, Boston, Tampa Bay are 3 teams that are definitely better in my opinion. Up there with the Phillies are Texas, Atlanta, San Diego also in my opinion. I don’t even have Philly making the postseason this year, Atl wins the East and San Fran grabs the wild card.
I guess the “Rays” and “Yankees” have the best record and yet aren’t they best? The Phillies aren’t even the best team in the NL East!!
So, you ready to start sucking?
“and maybe second in the MLB.”
ummm…the rays…the yanks…the red-sox…the rangers…all say hi !
Good article. Looks interesting when you see them in one place.
How do you not include Raul Ibanez in this?
yeah true.
the raul signing would have been excellent as a two-year, $20MM contract
try again
what do you mean try again? we signed him to a 3 year deal as a 36 year old.
im saying that extra year wasnt neccesary
“Try again” meant that two years and $20MM for a 36-year-old who was reputed as one of the worst defensive outfielders in the game is hardly a bargain.
Ibanez isn’t worth $10MM/season today, and he wasn’t when he signed that deal either.
He had a year of good offensive production though last year.
Ibanez is a contract I did not like. However I do feel that it was necessary to go three years to get him specifically. So it’s slightly different from the point of the post. I mean, it’d be nice to get every player on a one-year deal.
Remember, Adam Dunn was signed to a 2 yr $20mm deal after the Ibanez deal.
The Phils would love for this to be the year Raul and Lidge came off the books along with moyer. That would free up something like 31mil? I would like to see the outfield of Brown Victorino and Werth, although it seems we can afford to let Werth go, who knows maybe even grab a compensation pick? The Phils have let some notable outfielders go starting with Abreu, Rowand, Bourne, Burrell, and seem to have a replacement. I think Ben Francisco is better that people think also.
I compare it to the temptation of signing Werth to a 4 yr contract… Great idea now, might become a weight to the budget in 3 years. I like having Ibanez in the lineup, and those bench guys in there too. Who knows, maybe a 1 yr contract wouldnt have worked.
Werth Victorino Brown would be nice but I’d be prepared for Brown Victorino Francisco
Then you should be prepared to not make the playoffs. Brown is in no way ready for every day play in the majors. A HR against a poor closer who was playing badly (as happened with the Giants last night) is in no way an indication of what he might do in the future. He’s made judgement mistakes in RF, his arm (or his aim) has not been good a couple of times, and his avg isn’t good. I just love the way everyone is “prepared to lose Werth” as if he has provided nothing to this team for 3 yrs. Let’s also not forget that he has Howard’s back. Ryan’s going to be receiving a whole different set of pitches if Werth goes. Don’t be cavaliere enough (or dumb enough) to wish him away. I have no idea, and neither does anyone else, how many yrs Werth wants, but it’s a perfect cinch any number of yrs will be better than Ibanez. Werth is a 31 yr old, 5-tool player.
the drop off in talent between Werth and Francisco isn’t as big I believe as most people think it is. Of course I don’t want to lose Werth, I wish we could find a way to keep him and have an O.F. of Werth Victorino Brown.
Brown will improve his fielding, quickly.
Werth is a 5 tool player and of course I’d love to keep him on the team.
I’m also talking about TWO years down the road, when Brown will be in his 2nd full season, hopefully.
If Werth leaves, then we have Brown Francisco Ibanez and Victorino to choose from to find a starting outfield.
I get it. I understand what you’re saying. But if the drop-off in talent btwn Werth & Francisco is negligible, then if I were Francisco I’d “make hay while the sun shines”, as they say. Go out, get a big ‘ol contract before Werth does. But the truth is, the difference is big; larger than most Phillies fans will admit. Most fans are prepping themselves to be happy w/losing Werth now in case the front office doesn’t keep him. That’s why most ppl are attempting to paint this as Werth being greedy, or not worth the money, or by saying we have other players to replace him. We just don’t have 1 other right-handed, 5-tool player who can comfortably back-up Ryan Howard & none on the backburner either. Any time I read the PR nonsense pitched by the FO about ‘no money’, I look at the Forbes article (4/10) listing the worth of all the MLB teams, I realize they’ve just sold out their 90th game in a row, & I remember that the majority owners of the Phillies are living on the Mainline & keeping their profit margins up while I live in a rented, 1-bedroom apt, and struggle at my job (like most Americans). Hey, no team stays the same forever & players get old. But do your best to keep the working team together, otherwise prep the fans for yrs of losing.
Taking candy from strangers is bad.
Anyone ever wonder if maybe they should have given the job to Mike Arbuckle instead?
Ha ha. So true. Arbuckle’s done a brilliant job… wherever the heck he is now.
How were Blanton’s FA years market rate? Randy Wolf 3-30. Blanton’s 09 season was pretty comparable to Wolf’s (4.07 xFIP for Joe, 4.17 for Wold) and he had a far more durable track record. Piniero got similar to Blanton’s two FA years, but he also pretty much came out of nowhere
It was market rate given Pineiro I’d say. But even if you’re saying they trimmed a few million, which I can buy, Blanton is a guy I’d let the season play out with and then worry about.
They trimmed 2-3mm for 2010 (which they ended up possibly questionably spending on some of the other guys on that list, but that’s another story).
From there, paying him 2-17 for 2011 and 2012 for a team with really a 2012 championship window of late-prime stars is far from irresponsible IMO
Most of these deals will not burn you horribly on an individual level. It’s the combo of so many that I would worry about.
Great point, Tim. Todd Zolecki of MLB.com made an interesting point before the season started; if the Castro, Gload, and Schneider deals weren’t made, the Phillies would have had an extra $9mm or so left which they could have used to keep Lee at the time. A continuing trend of questionable fringe deals can be as detrimental to a team as one, large, bad deal.
Randy Wolf was the go to guy for the dodgers in 08-09, he came through huge when the Dodgers were going down-hill….Ted LIlly Needs to Come Back For the DOdgers (:
not every contract has worked, but the philosophy has worked… 3 straight division titles, 2 straight NL championships and a World Series championship!
and we dont even have utley/howard right now.
And last but not least….
A loud mouth shortstop who got his words crammed right back down his throat courtesy of the 27 time World Champions.
Hope to see you guys again to give you another what-for.
blah. He was right about in his other “predictions”, so I’ll happily get Rollins’ back.
As opposed to the Yankees, whose shortstop is just about the only classy guy in the lineup. Alex Rodriguez seems to think hes above showing any respect to anyone, and Jorge Posada spent the entire 2009 World Series yelling at the umpires and Phillies’ players, usually for no apparent reason.
I guess this is a game where everyone is nice to each other like it’s a walk in the park? Baseball is a hard sport. Everyone does whatever it takes to even win a single game for their team. Look how classy Matsui and A-Rod looked in taking them down.
Rollins shouldn’t be making predictions when you only bat .100 in the World Series.
I’d imagine if Jorge Posada was in anyone’s ear, it was because they needed to be reminded who the hell they were talking to.
5 rings.
Oh give me a break. I never questioned Posada’s ability. He is obviously a great catcher and there’s a reason he’s won so many rings. But I posted in response to an ad hominum attack on Jimmy Rollins, so it is completely legitimate to point out that guys like Posada aren’t necessarily the greatest guys in the world themselves. Every time I see Posada on TV his damned mouth is open. The guy wont stop yelling. Granted I don’t know what he’s saying, but I can’t imagine it’s always positive. Rollins is a great teammate and is well respected by other players. He does occasionally say something stupid, but he’s not out there screaming insults like some maniac with roid rage every time he takes the field.
dont forget crybaby swisher
and the fact that they shouldn’t have beat the twins. Worse calls than the ones we’ve seen this year.
Then they lose one of the games, and win the series. The Twins didn’t have it last year, barely making it in to the playoffs. Their pitching was bad, and their offense wasn’t that good, even with Joe Mauer’s fantastic season. Last year, the Yankees had 7 guys with 20+ homers and Jeter was close with 18. So yeah I agree, there were a lot of bad calls, but the Yankees would have beat them anyway.
He isnt a cry baby. Just A true success story
I wouldn’t mind beating the yanks this year with Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels. Beyond CC who is scary in their rotation? Pettite maybe, Burnette is the type of signing this whole article is getting at anyways. Glad the Phils didn’t make that one.
How can you say the philosophy has worked? What affect would giving out extra, unnecessary years have on the team’s play in the current year? Absolutely none.
We’re in the present buddy, 2010. 2008 and 2009 were nice for Philly though.
Amaro was channeling his inner Dombrosky
I think it’s hard to say whether the Phillies philosophy of locking guys up is beneficial or not. It looks especially bad this year, because of all of the injuries that the team has had, but over the long run, contracts given out in the past have worked out well for them now, and contracts given out now may look well for them in the future. I don’t have a problem with the team giving out years. It’s giving out excessive money that irks me about Ruben Amaro.
That being said, the only contracts that really disappoint me are those of Joe Blanton and Danys Baez. Blanton is a career middle of the rotation / bottom of the rotation guy, who probably could have been non-tendered. (Obviously with all of the injuries the Phillies have had, it’s a good think they didn’t.) Blanton is a guy where you know what you’re going to get. He’s going to have an ERA right around 4, without walking many guys. He’s coming back into form as of late, with a lot of his troubles coming in the first inning. 8MM a year is actually about what he would have made in arbitration before he signed the dear, so it may be the next two years which really go to show if he was worth the deal.
Baez, on the other hand, was just a stupid signing. Giving a 33 year old reliever, who hasn’t had a good year since 2005, a multiyear deal at more than 2MM a year, was just dumb. People will do desperate things when desperate for bullpen help. Lol
The other deals don’t bother me. Ryan Howard is one of the best first baseman in baseball, Cole Hamels has returned to his ace-like form, and Polanco has been one of the best hitters in the National League this year. The Phillies are very weak at third base depth in the minors, so giving a good hitter like Polanco a three year deal makes sense to me. When you look at the guys on the bench the Phillies gave multiyear deals to, that makes sense to me as well. Greg Dobbs had a tremendous 2008, and no one saw such a decline coming. A one year deal may have made sense for Ross Gload, but at about 1MM a year, you are getting a guy who is a very consistent pinch hitter.
So the Phillies may have made a few deals that look bad in hindsight, but what team doesn’t? I like the fact that when the Phillies sign players, they commit to them, and I’m sure the players respect that as well.
Here’s the thing about some of these players – Hamels, Dobbs – you had them anyway. For many years.
Dobbs was questionable, but making Hamels happy is something I’m ok with. IIRC, that was just after his dominating ’08 playoff performance. Pay the man.
Moyer: I questioned the move, but (pre-injury) I had changed my mind and thought they did ok with that contract.
Baez: bad.
That’s true. I overlooked that. Lol. I was just reading names off of the list you posted and thinking off the top of my head. Even with that being said, Hamels as a Super Two would have killed the Phillies. Buying out three of his arbitration years at 7MM a year is a pretty good save, no? If I’m not mistaken, he’ll still have a year of arbitration after the 2011 season. In my mind, going year to year with Hamels would have put the Phillies in a similar situation as to what the Red Sox are in with Papelbon. After a questionable year in 2009, and a seemingly “bounce-back” year in 2010, would the Phillies be willing to be a possible 10-11MM to Hamels through arbitration? Obviously, I’m exagerating the numbers there, but the fact of the matter is that paying Cole Hamels 7MM dollars a year was inevitable, but having him at a controlled rate makes much more sense to me, especially since as you said, they’d have controlled him anyway.
The way Dobbs has played though, I’d rather forget he was ever given a multiyear deal. Lol
True. But do you think players appreciate going to arbitration every year? Do you think that maybe Ryan Howard, who had been held down in the minors way too long as the Phillies gave a huge contract to Jim Thome, would appreciate the team paying only whatever they could get away with, even after he’d won the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards, not to mention anchoring a World Series lineup? Thinking only about what you can get away with is a great way to be a GM, if you’d like a position with the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you want to keep your best players, you have to give them a reason to want to play for your team. You guys have to understand that there’s more to contracts than just statistical player value calculations.
The Hamels criticism is crazy too. Even if he had TJ he would/should have not been non-tendered. They were in a bad spot with their arb leverage due to his Super 2 status and him coming off a season where he was the best pitcher on earth for a month
The cost certainty created by that deal created transparency and likely helped Ruben focus on some of the multiple terrific trade acquisitions he’s pulled off since mid 09
Victorino and Werth extensions were very good. How good does getting 2009 at 2.5mm and a FA year at 7.5mm (2010) look now? I also liked the Madson extension although he has missed some time with injuries
Howard, Moyer and Baez though I hated so flame away on those. Would have liked to see 2 years on Polanco as well, but again I think he was aggressive to lock him up so that he could focus fully on the Halladay deal (instead of waiting out the 3B market and possibly having some fallback guys get snatched up)
Unless you can find the right comps and tell me how much money they saved on Hamels, you can’t call the criticism crazy.
Tim in what circumstance over the last two seasons would they have NT’ed Hamels? So if he had blown out his arm, they have have likely saved a few million for each of the 09, 2010 and 2011 seasons as he rehabbed and returned. But on the flip side, if Lincecum had decided to go year to year, he would be crashing through the top side of the arb precedents for Super 2 eligible pitchers each seasonCole is not Timmy, but a sensible agent would have been able to use those historic new precedents each seasons to help enhance Cole’s bargaining position in arb year to year. As it is Timmy got 9mm for his 3rd year of service time in 2009 as part of his extension. He filed for 13mm though. RAJ has no assurances that Lincecum will settle, for all he knows he could win the 13mm as a Super Two and completely break open the arb system for Super 2 pitchersHamels got 4.35mm for his 3rd service time year. 6.65 for 4th, 9.5mm for 5thSome othersWang (Super 2): got 4mm in 2008 for his 3rd ST year. His progression helps your argument, but that award also likely sets the floor for Hamels 2009 arb awardNolasco (Super 2): 2.4mm for 3rd year of ST 2009Verlander (not Super 2): 3.675th for 4th in 2009Was it a hugely team friendly extension? NoWould they have helped themselves by ensuring he didn’t become a Super 2 in the previous years? Yes. TremendouslyBut given what the situation was after 08 with the specter of another Super 2 completely destroying all precedents in that same offseason, the logic from RAJ’s perspective is pretty clear
Assuming that each marginal WAR is worth $4.5, Hamels was 1.9 WAR in 2009, and is 3.3 WAR so far in 2010. That equates to 5.2 WAR x $4.5M = $23.4M in marginal value, and we still have the balance of 2010 and all of 2011 to be played.
Where is Brad Lidge on this list Tim? $34.5M and three years for a hot and cold closer? That’s one I’m sure Gillick and Amaro would like to have back right now.
WORSE GM in the league = RAJ.
He’s made a mess of everything Gillick built, truth be told I’m really surprised he get the free pass he does so much.
Gillick handed him the keys to a Benz and when RAJ came back he had traded it for a fiat.
“He’s made a mess of everything Gillick built…”
I’m a Gillick fan, and a RAJ skeptic, but when I read this kind of thing I think it is nuts. You need to expand on your statement for me to take it seriously.
Omar Minaya tends to disagree.
Agree.
Not sure how much more I need to expand, it all right there in front of you
Omar Minaya tends to disagree.
Bill Bavasi tends to disagree and (even not being our GM now) is very intrigued by Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and Jeff Francouer and offers you our best prospects (Smoak, Pindea, Ackley) because “they aren’t in the majors now, so they can’t help out our team. Their wasting money that can be spent on great players like these guys”
Really? He made a mess of trading for Roy Halladay who is one of the top 3 if not the top pitcher in baseball… Trading for Roy Oswalt who for his career was one of the best pitchers in the NL. He made a couple of bad signings but so did Pat Gillick but you’re too blind to see that because you’re probably bitter over the Cliff Lee deal.
Pat Gillick signed Adam Eaton to a three year contract. He locked up Brad Lidge for three years. Pat Gillick traded Gavin Floyd and Gio Gonzalez for Freddy Garcia.
Ruben Amaro Jr. signed Joe Blanton… He traded Cliff Lee, and he signed a bunch of aging verterans for 1-2 more years than he should have and none of those signings have come back to bite him now besides Ibanez and Baez and Ibanez has turned it around lately and Polanco could possibly win a batting title this year.
Yeah, he did make a mess of the Doc Halladay deals.
I had written a whole log post but erased it for this:
Explain how many prospect did RAJ trade away in the Lee – Halladay – Oswalt deals?
Oh And actually, I’m not bitter at all, thanks for Drabek, I’ll enjoy him for years.
They traded away so many prospects in acquiring three aces in one calendar year that………..they still had the #1 prospect in baseball. And two other top 50 range guys (Singleton, Cosart). And what BA called “the most A ball talent in the minors”Enjoy Drabek. I’ll be heartbroken about him everytime I see Roy pitch
LOL, I love the best A ball GREAT enjoy, and I’m sorry how many times do A ball players make it to the majors.
And who is the #1 prospect in Baseball? LOL he’s not even top 10
Top 50 Range?
3 aces in one calendar year, Hmmmmm but they could have kept more then half the prospects if they had traded for the “right” Ace to begin with.
AND PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don’t say in public again what a great farm team the Phillies have at the A level.
I’m already heartbroken for Roy yet another without making the playoffs.
Believe me I do love the low ball talent the Phils have and I will enjoy the ability to keep producing talent while concurrently trading for more impact pitchers than any other MLB team. I appreciate your support in this matter
Brown was #1 prospect for a couple weeks post Strasburg/Heyward/Stanton, etc.
I like Drabek, but don’t think he’s the #1 starter the Phils (correctly) talked him up to be. You never know, of course.
It’s true that there is no way of telling how Drabek will turn out.
However, I think that there is a major hole in this little debate. The Jays did not recruit Drabek in order to fill a void; it was just part of AA’s philosophy to acquire as much top-end talent as possible.
Escobar, Drabek, Gose, D’Arnaud, Morrow…it is a recurring theme. Some may be long-term parts for the Jays, others may be high value trade chips, some may be a bust. But whatever the outcome, I think it’s a mistake to see Drabek for Halladay in quite the same way as, say, Ramirez for Beckett.
I really enjoy that you ridicule the Phillies for trading their prospects for quality starting pitching while in the same breath ridiculing low minor league talent for its propensity to flame out before reaching the majors. Of the prospects involved in the Lee, Halladay, and Oswalt trades the following players were playing at A ball at the time of the trade:
Jason Knapp
Travis D’Arnaud
Anthony Gose
Jonathan Villar
Only one prospect, Michael Taylor, was above AA.
Again!, someone missing the whole point.Listen it’s great RAJ has been able to trade for 3 “impact” pitchers over the last 13 months, it wonderful I applaud him.Look I understand that not everybody he traded away will be very good, some are second tier middling prospects a few will everyday players. I get ALL of this.What everybody is missing is that that last July he held out wanting to include Drabek for ANY DEAL involving Halladay. So he goes and probably, no not probably, he does wins the Lee trade hands down. Lee is a monster in the playoffs for Philly. Now comes December, he wants Halladay but now he gives up the two players he didn’t want too in July and he has to empty even more of the minor league system. OH but wait, so because they can’t afford his salary along with Lee, because of some “hard cap” and they need to “replenish” the farm system he now trades Lee away for a couple prospects, now he sends Halladay to anchor a rotation that is worse then any he had in Toronto, well almost. Realizing this RAJ goes out and once again trades for a top of the line pitcher who makes 11 million more then the guy he had all along, and is probably not the better pitcher at this point of their careers.Class A minor league players ranked high are great and all, but come on how many top ranked minor league players make it all the way to the “show”I’ve said it before Philly is a good team in a bad division. Trading for Halladay is a no brainer trading for then away Lee and then spending even more to get Oswalt, well I just don’t see how people can’t see the faults in all that.Interesting side note by the way, Gose ranked higher then Taylor on both the Jays and Phillies list, Philly wouldn’t give up Gose in the Halladay trade as well as the other two, that’s when the A’s got involved and AA flip Taylor for Wallace, who was flipped this summer for Gose.So last July the 3 players he never wanted to give up for Halladay are in the Jays farm system AND his 3rd option makes more then anybody else in the rotation eating away at that so called “hard cap”It will be hard to replace Werth’s bat in the player friendly clubhouse and Ibanez isn’t the answer to anything and all they have is Browne on the horizon. To me, the Phillys are in a worse spot 13 months later as the division is getting better and younger.I get the win now mode, but they aren’t looking like they are going to win this year, and it’s only going to get hard this season out.But hey maybe a couple of those A level prospects help the Phillys in 2015
The difference between the potential Roy Halladay deal as of July 29, 2009 and the one that went down in December was RAJ’s ability to negotiate an extension with Halladay before the deal went down. There’s a huge difference between 1.5 years of Halladay versus 4 or 5 years. The decision at the trade deadline last year came down to Knapp, Marson, Carrasco, and Donald for 1.5 years of Cliff Lee for roughly $12 million or Drabek, Taylor or Brown, and Gose for 1.5 years of Halladay for roughly $21 million. Given those deals and the way those prospects projected at that time, give me Lee 100 out of 100 times.
Fast forward five months and AA has replaced Ricciardi and gives RAJ the option to negotiate prior to the trade. At that point RAJ becomes amenable to trading those prospects for 4, possibly 5, years of Halladay. Granted, RAJ traded away Lee on the same day, but I don’t think there’s a reader on this site who will argue that was an intelligent move.
A lot of the guys the Phillies ended up trading away are high-ceiling guys that may turn into superstars, but then again, maybe not. The Phillies stock up on those type of guys every year in the draft. Since the Halladay trade, several of the guys the Phillies drafted last year have blossomed into exciting prospects, including Singleton, May, Cosart, and Colvin.
As has been pointed out previously, the Phillies have traded away serviceable major leaguers in the past, and they seem to be doing okay so far.
Wamp wamp!! !We all felt that way when we lost lee in Philly, but RAJ as you say, made up for his blunder by not keeping both
that team has produced Rollins Hamels Howard. Singleton is hands down a “special” prospect, not to mention we have 2 top of the rotation projected starters down there. And a bunch of overslot picks who can’t hit. We traded away a lot over the last 3 trades, going back to Blanton. These trades and these pitchers have ultimately helped the Phils 2 WS runs – but Cardenas Outman Knapp Carrasco Donald Marson Drabek Taylor D’Arnaud is a price to pay, although I think they’ve escaped embarrassment so far.
I think you’re a bit confused. The only way you make a mess of a deal when it comes to prospects is by trading away prospects that would have really helped your team in the future. The only prospect like that, that the Phillies traded away was Kyle Drabek, and even that’s yet to be seen. I’d hardly call replacing Happ with Oswalt in the rotation a “mess.”
So enjoy watching Drabek pitch for the annual fourth place Blue Jays, and I’ll enjoy watching Halladay and Oswalt spin a gem every time they take the field.
4th place Jays? yeah maybe Of course I can only imagine were this 4th place team would be in the weak NL east.
You’re obviously not that bright either, because you don’t seem to get the point.
Halladay is great to watch though I’ll give you that, Oswalt, not so much.
I just don’t understand the philosophy of trading away Lee OR not just trading for Halladay last summer.
Oswalt is only there because of the mistake of trading away Lee and now Oswalt is going to cost the Phillies Werth. Who I’m sure you are going to say will be replaced by the #1 prospect (lol) but who replaces the fast aging Ibanez.
Of course this is all for not if the Phillies just decide they can spend spend spend like the yankess.
As a Yankee fan, I’ll back you up on this.
Toronto would steamroll a lot of teams if they played in another division.
Not sure the gloating tone is necessary. Most Jays fans wish Halladay (and therefore Philadelphia) a World Series.
I think you are mistaken to believe that prospects with no future for your team are valueless. At the very least they represent a trade chip, and the Jays have three guys with high upside (Drabek, D’Arnaud and Gose) thanks to Doc.
But this question concerns RAJ, and sure, many feel he made a mess at a key time. Considering what he gave up, he could have had Halladay and Lee for 1.5 seasons; enough to give the Phillies a legitimate shot at three WS in a row. But he choked, twice, and I hope for Halladay’s sake that it doesn’t cost the Phillies in 2010 as it did in 2009.
Wasn’t gloating, and your right most Jays fan, myself included would like to see Halladay win.
and Prospects are good, but claiming to have the best A level team is a little ridiculous IMO.
He should have had Halladay and Lee but he made a mess of it all including probably giving up more talent then he should have when it is all said and done.
Agree 100% with everything here. One small nit to pick – didn’t the Jays get Gose from the Oswalt deal, not Doc?
They did, but it was a kinda hangover from the Doc deal.
Initially the Jays got Taylor, who they flipped to the Athletics for Wallace, whom they then flipped to the Astros for Gose. Considering that neither Wallace nor Taylor turned out for the Jays, I think it’s fair to settle on Gose as the third piece of the Doc deal.
Oswalt is 1-3 for the Phillies bud.
What are you talking about? Oswalt is 2-1 with a no-decision for the Phillies.
nope.
oswalt has at least 2 wins ahole
Yeah?? we enjoyed halladay every single perfect game and playoff no hitter and 21 win season and 9 complete games and 4 shutouts he had and 300 innings and 250 strikeots!! Wait that all happened in 1 year, but how can that be?? OMG GO ENJOY DRABEK, Ill keep tuning in for a possible no no, 1 every 16 starts so far as a Phillie and world series title with Doc Halladay, Hamels and Oswalt
Once again a Philly fan missing the whole point. Not surprising.
Great you have Halladay and Oswalt. But wouldn’t Halladay, Lee, Halmes and Happ look much nicer then Oswalt and Blanton?
Again, it seems the Halladay deal was the backup to losing Lee after this year. 1 yr of Lee @ 9m or trade for Halladay, pay him 9m this year, and have 2 more years, because Lee will not resign for any less than max… We traded away 4 allright prospects the only real loss was Jason Knapp, who’s still young and who knows? We got 3 prospects for Lee and nothing great but, oh well we also got a year of cliff lee, and an NL Pennant. I’m not too crushed about losing Marson, Carrasco, or Donald, except that Marson and Donald might have provided cost effective bench options.
I don’t think he’s the worst (Minaya, Moore are much worse) but he has definietly gone for win-now and spending lots of money on big contracts, and dealing away alot on the farm for big name pitchers. They are running themselves like the Yankees are,top flight MLB roster but not alot of great prospects or depth at the bench. It makes him look bad, especially when injuries occur and your depth is very weak (Wilson Valdes, Cody Ransom, etc.).
Phillies will be a terrible team in a few years, bet on it.
they are in win-now mode
Doesn’t look like it’s working thus far….
The Phillies have one of the best farm systems in baseball, especially at the Class A level. Don’t be so certain.
What farm system? They’ve traded away most of their decent pieces to pick up Lee, then Hallady and Oswalt. Lee is gone Halladay has been what he was supposed to be and the jury is still out on Oswalt. Can’t build a decent farm system if you’re going to get rid of good pieces every year for trade bait.
The Phils still have a average farm system. They didn’t have to give up that much for Oswalt as people are making it out to be.
Sebastian Valle C A Ball
Jonathan Singleton 1B A Ball
Jared Cosart P A Ball
Brody Colvin P A Ball
Phillippe Aumont P A Ball
Tyson Gillies CF AA (got arrested though?)
Domonic Brown RF MLB
Who needs prospects when you have an all star team and have sellouts every night to bank next years team???? You keep your farm system and wave from home , we’ll wave from th eplayoffs!! Dom Brown and Jon Singleton say hi too!!!
One of the best farm systems (which is in and of itself debatable, especially at Class A, where it’s more projection than performance) isn’t why people think Philly will be bad in a few years. Their salary commitments, headlined by the crazy Howard extension, will cripple them in the future, while their stars are all on the bad side of 30. Domonic Brown in the only one that will be young; Rollins, Utley, Howard, Halladay will all be 35/36 in a few years. Not good.
The Phils are going to be fine. They are an elite organization at every level, from the fans who sell out the Bank 45,000 strong every night to the owners who continuously pump that revenue back into the club to the farm system talent evaluators who consistently find hidden gems. Pitching certainly should be fine, with two Class A arms that are among the top 50 in Baseball America’s current list – Jared Cosart and Brody Colvin – plus others who project as back-of-the rotation starters. Outfield should be fine with Brown and the several speedy leadoff type prospects they have. Infield could be an issue, but then again Chase Utley is the heart and soul of the Phils and it’s a full five years before he reaches Derek Jeter’s current age.
No worries. We should own the NL East for many years to come.
With no pitching except for Doc?
Well to predict a pitching staff 4-5 years out is pure folly. Who could have predicted five years ago that Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton would be in the Phils rotation, much less Roy Halladay??? One thing for certain is the Phils will spend money. But they do have a budget and that budget will certainly mean saying goodbye to Werth and Ibanez and Oswalt. But I can envision Hamels getting another contract. He’ll stay on as Halladay’s caddy, and the potential is certainly there for Cosart and Colvin to be young anchors of the Phils rotation by 2013. But again… perfect world.
Who said I was predicting anything? Is simply said that the Phillies pitching is horrible other than Doc and maybe Hamels. Other than them… I don’t think so.
You said that their pitching wouldn’t be good in the future, and jhill32 tried to explain to you how the Phillies have some solid pieces in the minors that can contribute to a solid rotation in the future. Obviously, that didn’t reach you. Even looking at this year, the Phillies top three of Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt is one of the best in baseball. Not sure what point you were trying to make…
I see what you’re trying to say but I think you took it the wrong way, I was talking about right now, and probably the next year since those solid peices in the minors are early in their development. I’m not denying that they could contribute to Phillies rotation in a couple years, but that’s a long ways to go, and the players they have now will be much older, It seems like Brown is going to be the only young guy. The Phillies top three may be formiddable… But until the Phillies take first place from the Braves for more than a week, Their pitching is better.
Doc Halladay
Jared Cosart
Cole Hamels
Brody Colvin
Kyle Kendrick/a cheap FA
Other than Dominic Brown i think not
just in time for the Nationals to take over as the beast of the NL East. Poor Mets…
*Cough*Domonic Brown*cough*
Great job locking up a bunch of guys who probably won’t produce well their entire contracts sans Howard and maybe Hamels. RAJ played his hand too quickly and past this year the team will begin to digress at an alarming rate. Their farm system is dry, especially with D. Brown now in the majors and they won’t have much money to go get more talent. Their reign of the NL East unfortunately is over at least for a couple years.
“bunch of guys who probably won’t produce well their entire contracts sans Howard and maybe Hamels.”
But, Dobbs, Gload, Baez, Schneider are bit parts of the puzzle. They take up salary space, but their “entire contracts” aren’t anything big. Otherwise, it is fairly likely that Polanco produces, and Blanton returns to last year’s form.
Considering Hamels only has one more year on his deal, I can’t see him not producing through his current deal. You might make more of an argument on Halladay, but that is where their team option helps.
There is no way that Howard is worth 25MM in ’15-’16.
The same way Arod won’t be worth the money he’s getting in 2015, 2016, 2017. Will CC be worth 23 million in 2014, 2015? Whatever Jeter gets, they are clearly going to overpay (not that I have a problem with that bc he’s amazing and Mr. Yankee). Tex won’t be worth 22.5 million the last 3 years of his deal. With the exception of game 2 last year, Burnett will never be worth anything near what he’s getting paid. That’s five players totaling like 12 years probably. The Phillies overpaid for 2.
That’s a straw man argument that has nothing to do with whether or not Howard will be worth his salary in the last 2-3 years of his contract.
Okay. Well how’s this. Howard has lost like forty pounds in the past two offseasons, his defense has dramatically improved, and he is striking out a lot less this year. Howard is 30 years old meaning at the end of this contract, he will be 36. He was also kind of a late bloomer because the Phillies didn’t immediately bring him to the big leagues. But the Phillies haven’t had guys who are really the face of the franchise since probably Mike Schmidt (could’ve been Scott Rolen, but he’s gone now). So they may want Howard and Utley to become the next (just like the Yankees need Jeter because their greats are all getting older and will probably pass away soon, the Phillies need these guys). A big contract for the face of your franchise right now and probably for decades to come is not that ridiculous! I get that everyone is seeing that Howard is nothing more than a power hitter and those numbers will just die and he will be useless, but he is hitting damn near .300 this year and before injured was leading the league in RBI’s.
“Howard has lost like forty pounds in the past two offseasons, his defense has dramatically improved, and he is striking out a lot less this year”
Good for him, I’m glad he’s had the work ethic to improve his baseball abilities. His defense is still average at best (which, admitteldly, is a solid improvement), so we can’t really commend that. And while he’s striking out ~5% less, he’s also walking ~5% less based on career numbers.
” But the Phillies haven’t had guys who are really the face of the franchise since probably Mike Schmidt (could’ve been Scott Rolen, but he’s gone now). So they may want Howard and Utley to become the next (just like the Yankees need Jeter because their greats are all getting older and will probably pass away soon, the Phillies need these guys”
Again, this has nothing to do with my point, which is that in seasons 2015 and 2016, he will not be worth 25MM.
” A big contract for the face of your franchise right now and probably for decades to come is not that ridiculous”
Actually, given that he was still under contract through 2011, and he hasn’t drastically improved, it is a little ridiculous. Since you keep bringing my favorite team, imagine if the Yankees had extended Jeter based his ’09 performance. I realize the difference in age, but it’s still relatively comparable. The biggest problem that I have is that the Phillies have to pay him 10MM in ’17 for him to play elsewhere.
” I get that everyone is seeing that Howard is nothing more than a power hitter and those numbers will just die and he will be useless, but he is hitting damn near .300 this year and before injured was leading the league in RBI’s.”
Yes, his average is up, but his OBP and SLG% are down from his career average, and those are much more important statistics. And RBI’s? Really? One of the most useless individual offensive stats around due to the dependence on the rest of the lineup. If you’re going to use that as an argument, there’s no way we are going to come close to agreeing.
We are clearly going to have to agree to disagree. This is obviously all based on opinion and no matter what I say to convince you he’s worth it and no matter what you say to convince me he’s not, we aren’t going to agree. I get that you don’t think he’s worth it in his final 2 years. While he may not be worth all of 25 mill, I don’t think he’ll be total junk either like some people (not putting words in your mouth). For me, I’m just pissed that now that the Phillies spend money, they are getting ridiculed for that. RAJ is a bit aggressive, yes. But it’s better than them not trying to get better (just ask Pirates fans). Are there a couple deals I wish weren’t so player-friendly? Absolutely. But Howard is my favorite player and this isn’t as ridiculous (in my opinion) as a contract as everyone is saying.
Sounds good to me.
Ya prolly said that before he hit 58 home runs and 145 rbis his mvp year, He averages 44 homers and 140 rbis per. How aint that worth it? even on a down year he hit 33 and got his average up over .300. Power sells
Who are you? Peter gammons? It appears that the Phils have sold out every game for the entire year, and into prior seasons, and nearly sell out for years now. For you to say they played their hand too quick is like saying The Bulls signed Michael Jordan too hastily. gimme a break, 99% of the teams in baseball Drool at the success the Phillies have the past half decade and into the near future
RAJ likes to use the term “cost certainty” when he describes these deals. While it is true that he would be exposed to less risk by signing one-year deals with players, it isn’t a sound strategy for planning in the future. Sure he might have been able to get Polanco with a 1 year deal, but it would have cost them more in the current season. Generally, players will accept a contract with a lower average annual value if they are guaranteed more years. Paying market value each could prove to be costlier in the end. A player who outperforms expectations on a one year deal will likely command a higher salary the next year, and likely want a multi-year deal. Then the team would have commit more to retain the player, or count on finding another in FA. While it seems like that has been the status quo the past couple of years (partially due to the economy), I think the Phillies approach isn’t as ridiculous as you presuppose. If all the other teams in baseball are using a different approach, they could stand to reap the benefits of the contrast. Seems like game theory to me.
I wouldn’t say their approach is ridiculous, just unnecessary. But I don’t see any kind of game theory in tossing out extra years that often don’t work out to non-star veterans.
I completely agree with you that it is unnecessary. I don’t think anyone could really rationalize the Dobbs or Gload deals as they are essentially the same player, except that Gload is a better hitter and Dobbs can occasionally field a ground ball at third.
While I’m sure those in the SABR community will lose their mind, I think its important to consider the circumstances under which these deals were made. Moyer is the oldest dude and the world, and pitched his butt off for us when we needed him in 2008. The two year deal was more of a sign of loyalty and appreciation.
They picked up Rollins option as a sign of good faith. With no replacement in the minors, I don’t think they wanted him to spend this year worrying about his option while they were trying to contend for a championship.
Hamels- absolutely lights out in 2008 playoffs, at that time he was our only true ace. He had made some comments before about his low salary at the time that was a big deal in the media.
Howard- while many baseball columnists hate this deal, I think the FO felt like they had to show that they would take the steps to fortify the future of the organization. Chicks dig the long ball, homers put people in the seats… they needed a consistent face of the franchise.
Out of market observers might not understand, but Philly is a very emotional city in regards to its sport franchises. The rivalry with the Mets, losing to the Yankees… the front office wants to show everyone that they’ll pony up the cash to make sure this team stays a winner. While some might be envious of the Phillies recent success, and I know most fans certainly are grateful for it, they hadn’t been in the postseason for 14 years before 2007. We know we’re working with a short window of opportunity with our aging core and have to do what we can to keep it intact.
I don’t think they saw a future for Werth with Brown coming up. And I can’t think about Cliff Lee without ripping my hair out.
I look forward to the post about the Cubbies and Soriano, Zambrano, Ramirez, and Fukudome. Worse to offer extensions to current players than wait until they hit FA or outbid for FA to fill a need?
this team will be the best team in the NL by the end of the year
LOL
And now you have what to say…………………………?
Yes, and by that time Juan Pierre will hit his 30th Home Run of the Year.
Gload was good off the bench last season. I wouldn’t say ‘unimpressive’. His career numbers aren’t bad.
Wasn’t he the top/one of the top NL pinch hitters?
Idk where to find PH stats…but I believe he may have been 1st in hits.
Yes, Gload lead the league in pinch hits in ’09.
The Phillies really value Clubhouse cohesion and believe the a player with security will contribute to that cohesion more then a 1 year player. They also seem to believe that player cost inflation will make the later years of the contracts less burdensome then they seem at the time of signing.
I am still confused on the Ryan Howard extension.
Probably not as confused as Amaro must’ve been to offer such a ludicrous contract.
You missed the Victorino and Ruiz extentions. The 3 year 8.85 Ruiz deal is very team friendly, and the pitching staff loves the guy. Victorino had a pretty good year going other than his average before he got hurt. He was on pacefor at least a 20/20 season. These deals start to balance out some of RAJ’s questionable moves.
I didn’t miss them. This isn’t an analysis of all things Phillies good and bad. It’s all the examples I could find of giving too many years.
Another Phillies FO pile on!! Quick Mets, Braves, Dave Cameron fans! Nows your chance to feel smug about a team with 2 straight pennants that will have a better record than you when the season’s over!
Tim, this isn’t directed at you. This post is certainly on to something, but it probably should be expanded a bit.
It would be interesting to compare their contracts to WAR and also to the going rate in dollars for WAR on the open market. I’m sure some deals would look better or worse based on those comparisons. But all of the deals can’t be compared to only the best deals out there. For every bargain/steal of a deal, there is a Alfonso Soriano or Jose Guillen contract out there.
Comparing their contracts to WAR makes the Phils look good (Polanco, Hamels, Rollins even Ibanez). I’ve never looked for the bench types because the dollars are pretty insignificant.
I say this a lot, but comparing their contracts to WAR doesn’t show us anything. Especially Hamels who they had anyway. With pre-FA guys it’s about what they would’ve made year to year. With FAs it’s pretty subjective – what do we think was the next best offer, and did it make sense to target that guy.
Tim, I agree that it’s not the perfect standard for comparison for the reasons you stated. Even with FA a team “overpays” when they vastly outbid competing offers (even when the player outperforms his WAR value).
But now we have to ask about other possible offers. I’m not sure there’s much public information there (no facts really). So you’re left with the arb guys (Hamels, Blanton). There’s precedent, sure. But what if Hamels had a lights-out 2009 and the Phils gone year-year? I don’t know. It doesn’t seem to add up to much. Phils are a big market team. They can afford some risk aversion in these departments.
Look at the RSox (Lackey, Beckett), Yankees (list too long; let’s start with Arod), Cubs contracts. Phils overpays seem like small potatoes, esp. when you see the big discounts they got for Rollins, Utley, and Doc.
And now I’m getting deleted. Fair enough, I shouldn’t have gotten personalThe bottom line though is that Victorino, Werth, Ruiz and Madson (extensions that either bought out FA years or created club options for them) should be on the list at the top of the post if we’re concerned about an actual meaningful, fair topicI am more than willing to criticize the moves I didn’t like, as long as we’re creating some decent context here and not ruling out other eligible, good moves of the same type in an attempt to point out a trend
“This isn’t an analysis of all things Phillies good and bad. It’s all the examples I could find of giving too many years.” -Tim Dierkes
I had a feeling this topic would spark some serious debates.
RAJ has been brutal as a GM. Hopefully we’ll survive his tenure. Ownership has opened up their wallets and the scouting department has done a great job.Now, I want to address the Braves fans.Look at your offense. Look at Tim Hudson’s xFIP-ERA. Think about your team before you brag. Brooks Conrad put up a .353 wOBA in 469 AAA AB last year. He has a .372 wOBA in 132 ML AB this year. ZIPS-ROS .327 wOBA. Still confident about his abilities?Alex Gonzalez, career .299 wOBA. Current wOBA? .336.Troy Glaus currently has contributed .4 WAR.Hinske? .7 WAR. (265 AB)Ankiel? .1 WAR (154 AB)Your only truly valuable offensive pieces left are McCann, Heyward, Prado.Your pitching is 2nd in xFIP (3.94) The Phils are in 3rd (4.02)Our offense will sport Rollins (1.6 WAR, 267 AB, 58 Games), Polanco (3.5 WAR, missed time), Howard (1.9 WAR, missed time), Utley (3.3 WAR, missed time), Victorino (1.6 WAR, missed time), Werth (3.6 WAR), Ibanez (.5 WAR, sucks.), Ruiz (2.3 WAR, missed time).I see a lot of valuable players. I think I typed missed time a whole lot. Lets debate with some facts. Not, LOL, OUR TEAM IS SO MUCH BETTER THAN YOURS.
Yes, and the Phillies pitching is the best I presume? Have you seen how the Braves beat the Phillies on a regular basis?
Did I even read what I wrote?
Especially the last part? “Lets debate with some facts.”
Lets start with “Your pitching is 2nd in xFIP (3.94) The Phils are in 3rd (4.02)”
Try to reciprocate.
The Phillies are 5-7 against the Braves. I hardly call that beating them on a regular basis…
Well, they are still the better Team…
Not really. The Braves may be having a better year but can you seriously make an argument that they’re better than a team that is only 2.5 games back despite losing their All Star second baseman, their All Star short stop, their All Star closer, their numbers 4-5 starters, their All Star third baseman, their All Star first baseman, their set up man, their all Star center fielder and their starting catcher. The Atlanta Braves had injuries sure but not to this extent in fact, no team other than the Red Sox have been hit worse. Chipper Jones isn’t the same as losing Chase Utley, losing Jason Heyward isn’t the same as losing Ryan Howard, their real loss was Martin Prado who has been one of the best players in the league this year, I’ll admit and Medlen/Happ is kind of a wash.
Also:
Roy Halladay: 15-8 with a 2.24 era and a league leading 175 K’s, 8 cgs and 193.1 innings.
Cole Hamels: 7-10 with a 3.51 era 1 cg and 162 strikeouts.
Roy Oswalt: 2-1 with a 3.08 era with the phillies.
Tim Hudson: 14-5 with a 2.15 era 1cg 171.2 innings 91 strikeouts
Tommy Hanson: 8-8 with a 3.41 era 1 cg 137 strikeouts
Jair Jurgens: 5-4 with a 3.92 era and 61 strikeouts.
I’d take the Phillies starting 3. Is Billy Wagner really that much better than Lidge right now? Billy’s looked really shaky lately while Lidge is 6/6 in his last 6 save chances.
I know that you’re going to make an argument that well they’re still 2.5 games up so they’re the better team… well they’re not. The Phillies are the reigning champions and NL east champs 3 years in a row. Until the Braves clinch the division, the Phillies are the better team. It’s going to be a fun race.
oops, should have waited prior to posting this one
Everyone take a step back from looking at numbers and stats, money and years, for one damn second. The Phillies are a clubhouse oriented team. Period. It was imperative to lock up some of those guys.
For all the people that rip Ruben, he has put together one of the best rotations and lineups in baseball. Really? Get over the Cliff Lee deal. We are now in a better position for 2011 and possibly 2012 because of the Oswalt deal.
Imagine if we had Omar Minaya? The Beltran deal? All that for a man who had one good playoff run. Look at his numbers. Didn’t deserve that deal. K-Rod, well we see where that’s going. The Angels never made a legitimate offer to get him back. I wonder why. Jason Bay? Great move. Horrible defender.
Yeah you’re absolutely right. In two or three years when the Phillies are full of broken down veterans who can’t even swing a bat anymore, at least they’ll all still be friends.Really, really rich friends.
…with 3 or 4 rings on their fingers
Mike, considering there was a lot of talk last season about the “hard salary cap” of the Phillies, don’t you think that it’s important to consider the many, many millions of extra dollars that are floating about in that clubhouse?
First, I’m not laughing at Browne I’m laughing at him being called the #1 prospect in baseball, and understand I like Browne as a player a lot, it’s just that a weekly update on top prospects in the minors that flip flops based on nightly stats. This week he might be #1 but that is because the majority of players that were ahead of his #14-20 ranking, based on different outlets have made there way to the majors. He is going to be a good one though.Secondly, The Phillies are a second place team -only 3 wins better then the Jays – playing in a weaker division and have acquired 3 stud pitchers in the last 13 months to get them there. while giving up a more then he need to in the long runI think the future is not looking as sunny for the Phillies with the coming emergence of the Nationals and Braves, who probably have the better rotation, despite not trading for 3 impact pitchers in the last 13 months.Jason Werth won’t be back next year, because the Red Sox, Yankees Cubs etc will out bid the Phillies who wont be able to afford him do to the horribly overpaid Oswalt, who should never have been needed in the first place.I’m not bitter at all, I have no reason to have any ill will against the Phillies. I just don’t think RAJ has done a good job of running his “franchise”, and I believe his moves will come back to hunt him, UNLESS of course the Phil’s win it all this year and I just don’t think they are going to do that.I’m sorry that you too are missing the point about A level players, It just sort of amazes me that people could possibly get all worked up over players at that level, I mean it took Billington 8 years before getting his first win. You just never know with players that young at that level.Perhaps not this year, although I and most people in my beautiful city are enjoying this season like my chances going forward more then the Philly’s, if only we didn’t have to pay the stinking Red Sox 19 times a year (3-9) lol.Cheers!I really do hope Halladay gets to the playoffs, just not so sure RAJ knows what he’s doing.
Werth was gone with or without the signing of Oswalt….I don’t think the signing of Oswalt had any impact on Werth. The fact is, if they can’t trade Victorino or Ibanez, Werth was gone. Brown needed to play somewhere cuz he’s cheap and their best prospect; who is also ready to play at the MLB-level. Werth will be on the team that misses out on Crawford….(Detroit or Angels)
It looks like my earlier post was deleted, but I hope you got to read that, because there was some really good stuff in there. You say that you aren’t bitter about the Phillies, but man, have you said some pretty bitter things. Your comments have been ridiculous. Can I just break your post down for a second?
-“First, I’m not laughing at Browne I’m laughing at him being called the #1 prospect in baseball, and understand I like Browne as a player a lot, it’s just that a weekly update on top prospects in the minors that flip flops based on nightly stats.”
Now, correct me if I’m wrong, but Domonic Brown doesn’t name himself the #1 prospect. That honor is given to him. The #1 prospect is the best prospect, yes? So why exactly are you laughing at him being called the number one prospect? This guy has all the tools, and deserves to be in the same conversation in potential as Mike Stanton and Stephen Strasburg as impact he can have on their respective clubs (well, Strasburg is Strasburg.) Should they have been laughed at when they were number ones as well? It’s ludicrous to laugh at any player being called a number one prospect. They’re as legit as it gets, and if anything, moving up through the system shows that he’s only improved since his last ranking. Anyway you look at it, he jumped over, what, 18 or 19 guys? (Can’t remember what his last ranking was.)
-“Secondly, The Phillies are a second place team -only 3 wins better then the Jays – playing in a weaker division and have acquired 3 stud pitchers in the last 13 months to get them there. while giving up a more then he need to in the long run”
We get it. You’re a tad upset that the Jays play in a tough division. That’s just how it goes. You can speculate that the Jays would be a better team in a different division all you want, but what relevance does that have in this post… or any other post for that matter? I won’t make excuses like a couple of other people have, but the Phillies have had their Opening Day lineup on the field 7 times this year. The injury bug hit hard, and the Phillies are still only 2.5 games out of the division lead, and a game up in the Wild Card. No doubt, the Jays have a great team highlighted by a good young rotation, however, on paper, no way are they better than the Phillies.
Ruben Amaro acquired three aces in the last 2 years, and essentially, only gave up Happ, Drabek, and Michael Taylor. Cliff Lee means nothing to the Phillies now, and the four prospects they gave up for him wouldn’t have had an effect on this 2010 club either, so that’s a wash in my book. They upgraded their rotation by adding Halladay and Oswalt in 2010, and that’s worked out well for them. Halladay signed an extension, and the Astros ponied up 11MM dollars to pay for Oswalt.
They have arguably the best 1-2-3 in the league, and 7 out of 8 position players returning in 2011. You can laugh at Domonic Brown being called the number one prospect or whatever you’re doing, but given a full season, I’d be willing to be my bottom dollar that he can replace Jayson Werth’s production. The major challenge with that is that you are adding yet another left handed bat to the lineup.
The Phillies still have talent in their farm system, be it A ball or the rest of the system. Us fans can rest easy knowing that the front office won’t be afraid to pay players to come here, knowing that it will help our chances of winning. It’s a show of respect to some of the most loyal fans in the game. So you can hope that the Phillies are going to be terrible in the future, but don’t hold your breath. They’ve proven this year that with half the team / lineup on the DL, the Phillies won’t go away.
So although the Jays may be a good team stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place, I’ll continue enjoying watching the Phillies compete for a pennant and a World Series Championship year in and year out. You can enjoy being the fourth best team in a really, really good division, and we’ll call it even.
The Jays should start investing in realignment, if you catch my drift. (Sarcasm, for those who won’t get that.)
Blah blah, what would I have to be bitter about?
Look man I’m not going to read your Jane Austen novel you wrote.
Let me break it down for, I’m not bitter I enjoy my team and I enjoy watching the Phillyies as well, I don’t wish ill will on them either their winning or losing doesn’t effect me at all as a fan of the game. But here it is I don’t think he has done a very good job of management AND THAT IS IT that’s all. Nothing more nothing less.
I’ll save you the 3 hours of writting another novel to me, I’m over it lets move on.
I’d call you a tool again, but that post what get deleted, so I’ll just call you a joke this time. It’s kind of insulting to hear your team’s GM called a failure, and accuse him of running his team into the ground without basis. So, if you’re going to make such claims, it wouldn’t hurt to provide a shred of evidence that he’s made a single move worse than trading Cliff Lee for a mediocre package, which I agree, could have been handled better. I’ve got nothing against you or the Jays or anything petty like that. I’m just saying, if you’ve got an opinion, at least try and back it up, or don’t even bother saying it.
Not reading my post tells me all that I need to know about you.
LOL, the only joke is you for taking this stuff so serious that you have to insult me without really insulting me cause your not petty.
I’ve moved on you should to.
*waves bye*
enjoy your multiple championships in the future.
Why, I need to have a grudge against you to insult you? Pft. Welcome to 2010.
*waves bye*
Enjoy being at the bottom of the AL East.
Not for long, Jays future looks much brighter then the Phillies.
Cause the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are going to just disappear right. I Lol at you.
The Blue Jays have some good young players coming up but I don’t think they have enough to dominate the Yankees and Red Sox for more than 2-3 years at most. I wish them the best though and I hope they prove me wrong.
Have you seen Brown’s raw talent? Some may have him 1 some may have him 2, who cares, he’s gonna be a beast anyway. He’s already gunning people with his cannon, and has shown off his speed. His average is mid 220s but he’s still getting used to MLB pitching. Werth will be gone, (although I doubt the Cubs make a run at him), and Brown will be a slight dropoff from him in 2011, but not in the long run. The Phillies have players at Single-A that will be the next wave once utley, rollins, howard, etc decline.
yes, they are going to win it all, 2 titles, 3 pennants, 4 division titles and counting
everyone can keep criticizing a team who has been to back to back World Series and is looking more and more like they will make the playoffs again with that stellar 1-2-3 rotation. Its fine, thats why fans aren’t hired as GMs. Do people think that ARod, Tex, and CC are gonna be good at the end of their contracts? No. Its part of the game. I will admit that the Blanton 3 year deal is suspect but no other major deal they have made looks that terrible at this point. Time will tell. But if they win another WS this year, then they can suck for the next five years and I doubt anyone would trade what they did to be good at the time. Utley and Howard aren’t even playing and they are still making up ground because of the staff they put together, which will still be there next year.
I read with amusement all offseason the assertion here that the Polanco deal was among the worst FA contract. Makes even less sense with Polanco playing sterling defense (4 errors) and competing for the NL batting crown. BTW, PP is hitting .331 AWAY from Citizen’s Bank Park. PP is a tremendous clubhouse guy, versatile and the Phils got him for $18 million in his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons. Seems like a guy in terrific shape and one who will perform at a high level through the end of the deal.
The claim was always made here that the Tigers didn’t offer him arb, the Tigers didn’t offer him a multi-year deal, etc. Maybe it’s time to turn it around and question whether the Tigers weren’t the ones making the bad deals when it comes to Placido Polanco. Great signing.
You can’t really say that it’s a great signing when the contract is less than 1/3 of the way through, especially when no one who disliked the deal was predicting Polanco to be unproductive this season (to the best of my knowledge). It’s mainly the 3rd and final year that have people saying/speculating that this contract won’t end well. Personally, I agree, I think the Phillies could’ve gotten Placido on a 2 year deal if they hadn’t been so eager to sign him. Now, maybe RAJ wanted to get 3B locked down so he could focus on other aspects of the club, and in that context, maybe it makes sense to get Polanco asap and then focus on other areas, then again, maybe he could’ve waited him out and still been able to get Halladay, there’s no way of knowing.
As for the Tigers not offering arb, that was not smart on their part imo, since getting draft pick comp would’ve been nice and if he accepted, then having Placido on a 1 year deal for ~6MM would’ve been solid for Detroit.
I read with amusement all offseason the assertion here that the Polanco deal was among the worst FA contract. Makes even less sense with Polanco playing sterling defense (4 errors) and competing for the NL batting crown. BTW, PP is hitting .331 AWAY from Citizen’s Bank Park. PP is a tremendous clubhouse guy, versatile and the Phils got him for $18 million in his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons. Seems like a guy in terrific shape and one who will perform at a high level through the end of the deal.
The claim was always made here that the Tigers didn’t offer him arb, the Tigers didn’t offer him a multi-year deal, etc. Maybe it’s time to turn it around and question whether the Tigers weren’t the ones making the bad deals when it comes to Placido Polanco. Great signing.
We get your point, you didn’t have to post it twice…
yeah sorry. My first ever post here. I don’t know how to delete one.
Cost Certainty
Phils must be playing Baseball Mogul rather than real-life.
just wait till the seasons over
just wait
I like the Phillies moves except signing Ryan Howard to that big contract. There was no need to spend that much on a guy who wasn’t a free agent until after 2011 and they paid a steep premium.
i agree that Baez, Dobbs and Blanton were a mistake. Raul should have been given two years. I would have preferred Polanco got two, but three to a hitter who does it year in and year out isn’t ridiculous. As for the Howard deal, absolutely no problem with locking up the face of your franchise. Picking up Jimmy’s option. How is this a problem? Who wouldn’t pay Jimmy 8.5 million? Hamels is worth way more than that anyway, and it made him happy. Meaning better chance of him pitching to his potential. And I hardly think Gload coming off a year where he led the league in pinch hits is “an unimpressive campaign.”
interesting, appears the phillies actually are the best team in baseball!! what is said in june or july does not really matter, what happens in september october is what counts.
im pretty sure the phils finished with the best record in baseball. so that means that those contracts werent so bad…schneider had an ok year, ibanez did better at the end, polanco was a .300 hitter, howard was great when he wasnt hurt.