In today's column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo examines the possibility of a Zack Greinke trade, noting that the Red Sox should at least inquire, given Allard Baird's history with the Royals and Greinke. Here are some of Cafardo's other notes:
- One AL GM on Greinke vs. Cliff Lee: "There may not be anyone better than Lee right now, but how long is that going to last? …. If you’re looking to build around someone, you would roll the dice with Greinke and hope that what he showed this season is an off year and not a sign of things to come. You’d have to do due diligence, but the upside with Greinke is pretty good."
- The Reds are attempting to work out an extension with Bronson Arroyo that would keep him in Cincinnati for a few years and slightly reduce his 2011 salary ($13MM). That way, the team could have some flexibility to add free agents this winter, and would lock up one of its best arms to a long-term contract.
- Bill Hall will look to find a full-time job at one position this offseason, but "people around Hall" are suggesting the all-purpose utility role he played in Boston might be better suited for him.
- The Rays are expected to field trade offers for B.J. Upton, Jason Bartlett, and maybe James Shields.
- David Ortiz and the Red Sox have had some contract discussions, but there's no resolution yet on either an extension or Ortiz's 2011 option. Boston will have until three days after the World Series ends to decide on the $12.5MM option, last month, we heard the Sox were prepared to exercise it.
Greinke is a luxury project that we dont need. I dont want the team to go through the headache of watching him go up and down all year chasing after the fantasy of the perfect rotation. Zack is a great player in his own right who put up some seriously huge numbers last year, but lets just face it, for him to do it again would be a long shot, especially if he goes to a big franchise like Boston, Fenway has humbled players better then Zack
I read the Cafardo piece this morning, and as much as I enjoy reading his stuff. I disagree with his opinion about the Sox need for either Cliff Lee or Zach Greinke. Not only do I not think that the Red Sox have the prospects to acquire Greinke, but they have other needs to fill as well.
And I thought the Rays were going to field offers for Garza as well?
I meant Zack.
Please, you don’t think the Red Sox have good enough minor league players to get Greinke? Lets see, Casey Kelly is a great prospect and will most likely have a rebound year, Anthony Rizzo has raw power and is a great defender, Jose Iglesias is a great defender and this year did great with the bat Ave .285, Anthony Ranuado just got drafted and has only pitched a little but is doing good so far, Stolmy Pimentel and Drake Britton are both good pitching prospects, I wouldn’t really count Ryan Kalish, Felix Doubrant, Josh Redick, Richardson, Nava as prospects sence they have seen decent major league playing time, Lars Anderson is much of a prospect anymore, Ryan Westmoreland didn’t play this year because of brain surgury but could come back and do good, and then there is Vitek, Navarro, Middlebrooks, Lavarnway, Tejeda, Fuentes, Lin, Weiland, Workman, and Bowden all are young and have Potentail, they have more then enough for Greinke, What do you think Greinke is worth???
Most of those guys are 1., ineligible to be traded, 2. Not prospects that the Royals would be interested in i.e. Rizzo, and 3. not players anyone would want in return for their all-star, cy young, 27-year old ace.
Out of all of those you mentioned, the only ones who i think would entice the Royals would be Kelly, Iglesias, Britton, Tejeda and thats it. That isn’t a good enough package to get Greinke in my opinion because plenty of other teams will offer better prospects. That is unless the Red Sox add in Jacoby Ellsbury.
Kelly and Iglesias themselves would make the Royals consider the offer. Both have star-potential, Kelly himself was a highly-ranked prospect before he had an of year. They have the ammo to make the tradem but that would pretty much clean out their entire system, and they have nobody behind Scutaro to play SS other than Lowrie.
Daniel Nava, Papelbon and Ellsbury for Greinke, Soria, and Billy Butler. And oh yeah the Royals pay all six players salaries
That would never happen….Royals will not trade Sorija or Butler and the Sox would never give up Ellsbury…The Royals would probably want Ellsbury and prospects for Greinke which then the Sox would tell them to go to hell….The Sox have enough to worry about getting V-Mart back and dealing wtih Beckett.
Wouldn’t the Royals have to ask for Hellickson? The Rays probably not gonna go for that. Another thing to remember, Greinke isn’t cheap. 2 yrs / $37 mil
Not $37 mil, but $27mil over next 2 years ($13.5/yr next 2 years). Not out of line for an ace.
Thanks, definite typo on my part.
It is not 2/37. It was 4/38 and he is guaranteed 27 Mil over the next 2 seasons. I didn’t say anything about the Rays, but yes, they would ask for Hellickson and Jennings.
Agreed with LAST thing Boston needs is another SP, but really.. 2 youngest players in the Eastern (AA) last season were 20YO 1: iglesias and 2: Kelly. Kelly put on some weight, increased his velocity and had some trouble locating with it at times, nothing more and doubt anyone else except a few fans have diminished their status of him as a top prospect.
The time Matsuzaka is shown the door out of Boston, Kelly should hopefully be ready and then the same people who kept doubting Bucholz for over a year.. well imagine they will disappear also..
Garza is the one piece the Rays would never trade….His stuff is too good and his upside is too big to trade him. Shields is a so-so third or fourth starter at best, Upton is just a plain headache and Bartlett is a good piece to fill in a hole for some team as a bench player. Prediction, Rays go after a player like Adam Dunn for first, trade Shields for a utility player and some prospects, don’t go after Pena and Crawford.
They are not going to go after Dunn. Because they are cutting payroll and Garza very well might he traded if a deal blows them away, which might happen if the Nationals get involved.
All these Boston reporters/Media need to stop with the Grienke/Lee talks. The RS have Lester, Buchholz, Beckett, Lackey, and Matsuzaka as the starting five next year. And they even said they plan to use Matsuzaka for the future, and alackey and his salary is basicly untradable and it’s just his second year in Boston. Next thing we know, the media are gonna turn into RS fans who will be yelling at Theo to try and get Miguel Cabrera or something…
I’d love to see miguel in a sox uniform. It would take alot to get him, but I think they would listen if we offered a package of casey Kelly, stolmy pimentel, Anthony rizzo, Josh reddick, Oscar tejeda, maybe Jed lowrie.
Go back to the video games…
Now repeat after me: There is absolutely no way that the Tigers will trade Cabrera.
Please, please, please, please tell me your kidding.
Read my post around 3 more times. Maybe you will get the jist of what I’m talking about…
whats the “just” ? i’m not sure you even know what you’re talking about…
I think you mean “gist”, not “jist”.
Good to know that it’s not only Yankees fans that populate Fantasy Land.
Far from. People seem to have this ridiculous notion that there aren’t people making ridiculous trade scenarios from every team’s fanbase. I’ve seen multiple people cite Carlos Beltran for Ellsbury, Iglesias and a mid-level prospect, for example.
Oh. My. God. The best pure hitter in the game, and you think the Tigers are gonna jump on any deal whatsoever? He’s their primetime franchise player (alongside Justin Verlander). He might win MVP this year (it’s between him and Hamilton in my mind), and not only that, he’s locked up. Throw those facts in with the fact that the Tigers are bound for an interesting offseason and are near locks to contend next year, and he’s not going anywhere. Without Cabrera, even with a huge offseason from Detroit, they don’t win jack in 2011. So, conclusion? Repeat after me: The Tigers are not trading Miguel Cabrera for ANYTHING.
My bad, you can make the argument for many others being the best pure hitter in the game, but he would definitely be right up there in the top three or four.
I don’t know if Rays will field offer for Upton with Crawford leaving but if he does become available, I really hope AA looks into it. He strikes out a ton but he can really help us with his speed.
Where would the Jays play Upton?
Coffee intern.
CF, Wells RF, Bautista 3B.
In that case, Let’s get Upton! I would rather have Rasmus, Young, or Kemp though.
I wouldn’t mind Rasmus and Young either but I’ll pass on Kemp. I’d prefer someone who has more speed. Sure, Rasmus is not like a 40 base stealer but he is far too good of a talent.
Kemp has a ton of speed, range, power, and everything else.
But little motivation and concentration issues.
He regressed so much this season after a great 2009 campaign. I do, however, wonder how much of the mishandling of him The Dodgers staff had to do with his regression.
Same goes with Loney.
Martin?
Lol Dodgers are ruining their hitters.
Ill happily take Russell martin or even the trio
If Bartlett is on the market, I really hope the Cardinals make a push for him. He only batted .254 this year but I see him getting back up to around .300 this next year. He would be a solid upgrade from Ryan for sure
Realistically, what could a guy like Upton, Bartlett or Shields bring back for the Rays. If I remember correctly, Buster Olney said that Upton would fetch a player such as Yonder Alonso or Freddie Freeman. I can’t imagine the Reds giving up Freeman for BJ.
In a best case scenario, what could the Rays get back for these guys and possibly Garza instead of Shields?
Whoops I meant Braves giving up Freeman, not the Reds.
Most likely for Garza…maybe a Major League piece or 2 top 150’s plus a low level minor leaguer. For Upton, I could see maybe something like Derek Norris and Brad Meyers or Upton. I’m not sure if Bartlett will be traded because I think teams expect him to be non-tendered, but maybe a Major League reliever under control…
Also, think about this maybe…Matt Garza for Prince Fielder straight up?
Rays are shedding payroll this next season. This won’t happen.
Can BJ leadoff and play LF? If he could then the Reds and Alonso might work.
Then what happens to Stubbs?
What about Shields or Garza for Alonso + Robles?
Stubbs plays CF and bats 7th. No conflict if Upton can play LF
I’d be interested in Garza but who is Robles? I’d trade Alonso and another prospect for Garza.
Tanner Robles.
For Robles and Alonso we would gladly take Garza. I’m surprised you don’t think the Rays would want more than that pitching wise.
Add in Zach Cozart and that’s a trade.
Deal breaker. We are short on SS prospects and Cozart has the potential to be one of the better power hitting SS’s in the future. Plus Rays are abundant with middle infield prospects. Why want Cozart?
He’s very young and. Raw though.
Very young and raw?? He played at the AAA level last year. He does need to develop some more but to call him very young and raw is an overstatement. Cozart will be in the Reds SS picture starting in 2012 maybe even a call up in 2011 if he develops at the plate enough in Louisville to warrant a chance.
Upton can’t get on base and strikes out far to much to lead off for any team. The rays are shopping this guy for more reasons than trying to dump his salary.. he has never even approached his 2007 season numbers since hurting his shoulder early on in the 2008 season, has a bit of “dog” in him attitude wise and is one of the most overated players in the game IMO. A superb defensive CF with a cannon for an arm, but offensive liability, with the exception of speed and nothing but potential tag the last 2 1/2 seasons that is wearing thin and you have to wonder how long the hype will last for this guy.
What do you guys think it would take to get Gonzalez or Fielder
For Gonzo, I’d say 2 blue chippers, and 2 B-C prospects. His bat+defense+clubhouse person is an automatic top five 1B. I don’t like Fielder. Despite his name, he can’t field anywhere, and I doubt he watches his weight. His bat is there, but I doubt it stays there for a long time. Anyone who gives this guy a $100M contract will end up regretting it. But I’d say a blue chip pitching prospect, and 2 other B+ pitching prospects since Milwaukee wants pitching.
Repeat after me: Gonzalez WILL NOT be traded this winter.
Explain to me why a team that missed the playoffs by one game trades their best player, who is only making $5.5m next year. If anything, he gets traded at the deadline if the Padres have no chance.
as a padres fan we have to be realistic we can’t afford AGon after this year so we have to trade AGon this winter, we need 2b ss and cf at least, Bell and AGon we trade this winter to separate deals is what’s I think I don’t now you give me an answer.
ya
….
There’s a huge difference between Lee and Greinke. Lee is one of the best post-season pitchers of all time, and Greinke has never had the opportunity to test his anxiety disorder in the playoffs.
Greinke’s advanced stats were better than his 4.17 ERA
5.2 WAR 3.34 FIP 3.76 xFIP
He had more ground balls than ever last year, and a crummy KC defense didn’t do him any favors.
Just sayin’, Greinke is an ace type pitcher, in the American League.
I’m pretty sure everyone knows he’s an ace.
yeah, Greinke is really good; but so was Lackey; the AL east does that…
“but so was Lackey”
Come on.
well you got me there, but he was way better in ANA, my point being is that not every pitcher can handle that division, maybe Greinke will, I just dont think it’s a sure thing…
2 more things anyways: 1) I agree that Lee’s better now, but for the next 5 years ths upside is greater with the younger royals ace, and 2) any team can use Greinke or Lee, but do the redsox need them?
The whole point though is not if Greinke can pitch in the AL East – he has dominated the AL East over the past two seasons, but the question is can his anxiety disorders prevent him from feeling comfortable in a larger market.
Zack Grienke is a far better pitcher than John Lackey.
3.34 in the AL Central doesn’t translate into 3.34 in the AL East in a hitter friendly stadium. Add to that, his 3.76 is more of a speculative stat (what might happen based on varaiables) than it is a retrospective stat. So wouldn’t his xFIP be higher if you sub out charachteristic of Kaufman Stadium and replace it with those of NYS?
Also, I think we have to look beyond his salary. It’s not just 2/$27 mil if you factor in the replacement cost of the players being traded.
If it were Montero, Betances, Nova and Nunez (which is some have speculated) then what would be the replacement cost of a future starting C or DH if Montero isn’t there to replace Posada when he retires in 2011? What’s the replacement cost for a possible #5 starter if Nova is traded since he is the next in line from AAA? What’s the value of 6 years of control for a potential front/middle rotation starter like Betances. Sure, not all of the 4 are guaranteed to be stars but obviously the Yanks, and any team who demands them in a trade, value them based on them filling that potential. I think Greinke is a great talent but trading for him and paying his salary is a huge cost and a big gamble. If he struggles the loss in prospects will hurt far more than the cost of his salary.
That is of course the gamble that a team makes when you trade prospects for proven MLB regulars. You might be right that his numbers would suffer in the AL East some. But you also have to factor that he would likely be playing with a better defense, and Kauffman stadium has been fairly neutral also.
Would you rather have Burnett going in a crucial game in the ALCS or a Cy Young winner like Zack Greinke?
That’s a silly question. Many other factors have to be factored into the equation. Can I choose neither of the above and sign Cliff Lee instead?
“no resolution yet on either an extension or Ortiz’s 2011 option”
oh my f’ing god! please no…
I mean no extension…
Why pick up Ortiz’ option when you can sign Dunn for the same amount?
Dunn deserves more. One, he has a better bat than Ortiz. Not alot of people give credit to his 38+ HR, 100+ RBI, AND .400+ OBP. Two, unlike Ortiz he’s not gonna give you a black hole at the DH slot for the first two months of the season. Dunn may K alot, but he’s pretty consistent at what he does, smash baseballs and drive in runs. 3, Dunn can actually play solid 1B once in awhile. Ortiz cannot.
Which is why I say Dunn > Ortiz.
Because Dunn has stated numerous times that he wouldn’t DH because he’s too hyper, so I don’t see him slotting into a DH role.
The Sox can play him at 1st and move Youkilis to 3rd if they decide not to resign Beltre. If not, they can at least give Dunn about 20-30 games at 1st to give Youkilis and Beltre some nights off.