It's a murky trade market for right-handed starters. We can assume certain pitchers with burdensome contracts can be had, but the availability of the more interesting names is unknown.
Bad Contracts
Derek Lowe ($30MM through '12), A.J. Burnett ($49.5MM through '13), Daisuke Matsuzaka ($20MM through '12), Aaron Cook ($9.75MM through '11), Carlos Zambrano ($35.875MM through '12), Kenshin Kawakami ($6.667MM through '11), and Gil Meche ($12MM through '11) fill out this group. Some contracts are worse than others, and names like Lowe and Zambrano are not necessarily on the market.
Are They Available?
We've got six interesting righties who could hit the market: Zack Greinke, Shaun Marcum, Jeremy Guthrie, Matt Garza, James Shields, and Jeff Niemann. Greinke would really shake up the pitching market, though the price would be huge and he has a partial no-trade clause. The Rays are at least six-deep in their rotation, causing many to wonder if Garza, Shields, Niemann, or at least Andy Sonnanstine could be available. The Orioles might prefer the stability Guthrie adds, though this could be a sell-high opportunity. Marcum is under team control for two more years; is there any good reason to flip him?
The Marlins' Ricky Nolasco could be a name to watch this summer, as could Chicago's Edwin Jackson.
Non-Tender Candidates
We mentioned Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Jeff Karstens, Dustin Moseley, John Maine, Sergio Mitre, and Brandon McCarthy as non-tender candidates earlier. If a team is willing to tender a contract, we could see trades in advance of the December 2nd non-tender deadline.
Summary
The free agent market for right-handed starters is uninspiring, but names like Greinke, Garza, and Shields would spice up the landscape considerably.
Everyone assumes that since the Rays have depth, that they’ll shop Garza/Sheilds. What about the Jays depth at SP? with Rzep, Drabek and Shawn Hill all capable of handling a back-of-the-rotation spot next year, doesn’t that make Marcum and/or Cecil expendable?
I really hope the Yankees will be on Greinke’s no-trade list. It’s kind of boring to read the same seemingly unending posts of ‘Greinke to the Yankees for Joba, Montero, Betancesabla bla bla’ every time his name pops out.
Roast me Yankee fans.
Why Roast? You’re entitled to your opinion. As a Yankees fan I’m just sitting back and waiting to see some big things happen once the WS is over. Could be a much longer process for some, but would love to see some major shakeup in our organization. Lots of things to consider, many of which are very sensitive.
Lowe’s contract isn’t that bad.
If he played for the Warren Buffett Bombers.
$ 15 mil per year for two more seasons for a 4.00 ERA? I wouldn’t sign up for that bargain.
not saying it’s good, it’s just not THAT bad to place it first on the list of bad pitcher contracts with the likes of dice-k and AJ. Seems like more of an (dis)honorable mention type of thing.
Lowe’s contract isn’t looking that bad right now, a year ago it was awful. But the way he finished the season was really awesome.
nope, its terrible
Derek Lowe’s contract at the moment doesn’t seem so bad. Without Derek Lowe the Braves miss the playoffs… Derek Lowe was great for the Braves this postseason and I think the Braves should hold on to him. However, given his postseason track record and his performance down the stretch he has more value than ever at the moment. This should be an interesting off-season for sure!
Derek Lowe’s contract at the moment doesn’t seem so bad. Without Derek Lowe the Braves miss the playoffs… Derek Lowe was great for the Braves this postseason and I think the Braves should hold on to him. However, given his postseason track record and his performance down the stretch he has more value than ever at the moment. This should be an interesting off-season for sure!
I would LOVE to see the Pirates make a run at Matt Garza. The Bucs should offer minor leaguers Jeff Locke, Diego Moreno, Robbie Grossman, and a low-A pitching prospect for Garza and Jason Bartlett. The Rays need major league ready bullpen help, so if they insist on receiving Joel Hanrahan or Evan Meek instead of Moreno in any package for Garza, then the Pirates should ask for Reid Brignac instead of Bartlett. This deal would 1) add the front-line starter the Pirates rotation needs, 2) upgrade the SS position, and 3) reinvigorate the Pirates fan base. I don’t expect the Pirates front office to make moves to excite their fans, but a deal like this would definitely fire them up. Make it happen Neal!
I think the Pirates going after a front of the line starter is a great idea, just not at the expense of prospects. The organization is in a state of bringing in a new line of draft and develop guys and shipping them off is not something the Pirates will consider. A guy like Kawakami is more plausible, as the Braves would likely be willing to eat half of his $6.7M contract to get rid of him. It may not be the most popular choice, but an affordable rotation fronter is what the Pirates need for 2011.
Kawakami a front of the rotation starter? Pirates are looking gloomy if Kawakami would lead them into 2011
I would love for the Pirates to get Garza. I’d like for the Pirates to get Bartlett too, but I’d rather have them sign him if he’s non-tendered then trading for him.
How is Kenshin Kawakami a bad contract?
An 8-22 record and a 4.32 era for the first 2 years of it first off. I wish they would follow through with the trade back to Japan that was discussed earlier. Lowe isn’t a much better contract, but at least he can manage to win every once in a while.
I think $6.7 mil is pretty reasonable. Quoting win record is idiotic anyway.
Since he has done nothing and is getting paid a lot of money.
You make it sound like he’s making AJ Burnett type money… Kawakami needs a change of scenery. Braves fans hate him, Bobby lost faith in him, and outsiders only point to his W/L record. He can be a decent 3-4-5 starter depending on the team. The Braves need to eat some of his salary and find a team that will give him a chance or eat some of his salary and find a trade partner in Japan.
You make it sound like he’s making AJ Burnett type money… Kawakami needs a change of scenery. Braves fans hate him, Bobby lost faith in him, and outsiders only point to his W/L record. He can be a decent 3-4-5 starter depending on the team. The Braves need to eat some of his salary and find a team that will give him a chance or eat some of his salary and find a trade partner in Japan.
Cox completely lost confidence in KK and stopped using him. The Braves may indeed try to dump him to a team in Japan. If that doesn’t happen, perhaps he gets a chance under Fredi to be the #5 starter in 2011.
Its funny they mentioned Dice BB and not Lackey, Lackey’s contract is way worse, 10 million a year for two years? that isnt a bad contract, its a steal if he could just stop walking so many damn batters, Lackey is the equivalent to Burnett’s Deal which arguably was the worse deal up there, not to mention the Sox are going to trade Matsuzaka to Seattle, who would take Burnett? anyone want to take Lackey?
I don’t see Edwin Jackson being traded simply because the Sox won’t get nearly as much back as they gave up to acquire him. I would not at all be shocked to see a Sox starter traded though, and my best guess is Gavin Floyd.
The problem with Edwin is that he’s a Boras client and he is certain to test the waters of free agency after the 2011 season. I see the Soxs holding onto Edwin and if they’re fading by the trade deadline, he’s a sure bet to be traded. When he’s on, he is a joy to watch on the mound.
Yeah, I could see a deadline deal for sure. An offseason one would surprise me though. The Sox seem to think they fixed some mechanical flaws in Jackson, so I can see them holding onto him with hopes of increasing his value (either for a future trade, or for Type-A status when he walks).
Doesn’t John Lackey qualify under the “Bad Contracts” category yet? Just asking. Or how about Josh Beckett? Okay, they’re not going anywhere, but neither is AJ, nor probably Derek Lowe.
The Tigers would make Armando Galarraga available if they had a starting pitcher coming back. Add Perfecto to the list of G Men: Greinke, Garza, Guthrie, and might as well throw in Gio Gonzalez just because he plays for Oakland and you know what they do with successful pitchers.
I wouldn’t put Galarraga in the same company as the other “G men” you mentioned, as likable as he may be. Also, Gio won’t be traded until his 2nd or 3rd year of arbitration I would expect.
In terms of value, no. I agree that Armando is a notch below the others, and not in the conversation with Greinke, but I’m just saying that he can be had, more likely as a player going the other way for a team looking to unload salary. He did with 13 games in 08, and I still think he’s a decent back end of the rotation guy very capable of pitching .500 ball, but he loses his aggressiveness with runners on base.
Gio would take a big haul to get right now. Beane should consider moving Cahill if another GM gives full value for his ERA numbers this year. That’s unsustainable.
There hasn’t been any talk whatsoever about Lackey or Beckett being available, so while their contracts may not be good for the team they aren’t going to be traded. They shouldn’t make it into a list of right-handers potentially available on the trade market.
There hasn’t been any talk of trading AJ Burnett, either. Put them all in the same boat. Their teams are just gonna have to eat the contracts and hope for bounce back seasons- which are not out of the question in any case.
Yeah, Lackey’s contract looks pretty bad. He was horrible in the first few months. He did get better as the season progressed.
June – 3.36 FIP
July – 3.60 FIP
August – 3.74 FIP
September – 2.87 FIP
Looks more like he got better once the rookies came up heh. Solid June though.
Aj Burnette and 20 million bucks to the Phils for Raul Ibanez….
That would have the Phils adding about 17 million to payroll over the next two years, can they really afford to do that? Not to mention creating another hole in the outfield. Even if Werth is retained (how can they keep him and bring in AJ?) and Brown takes over LF it’s not a perfect fit.
The phils would love to dump off ibanez, and keep werth
the yanks would love to dump aj.. its not a perfect solution but it makes sense
Phils hope that being around doc can provide some stability and structure to AJ’s preparation again.
Yanks don’t need another OF like Ibanez and then would have to spend several millions more to replace AJ so we might as well keep AJ and hope for a turnaround. I for one don’t see AJ as a total loss. His stuff didn’t get any worse and in many ways his peropherals from 2010 are close to the same as 2010. JUst have to hope that the coaching staff can pinpoint his mechanical problems and that AJ can execute the corrections.
I think that Dice-K’s contract only looks bad from a purely financial perspective when you include the posting fee. Otherwise, I think that he’s still pretty reasonably in terms of cost over the next couple of years.
Yeah, $10 million a year for a starter isn’t that bad but you’d expect more from him. With his inconsistencies and the frustration that builds up in the fans and team over him you’d expect more. I’m guess that if he gets dealt it’s not going to be for financial reasons, rather just to get him off the team and move on.
How about Lowe for Zambrano? The Ricketts save $5,875,000, and the Braves probably get better. Being a Cubs fan is terrible right now.
right now? as in, there was a good time?
Over 100 years ago it may have been fantastic.
Over 100 years ago it may have been fantastic.
A Burnett-Zambrano swap? Both need a change of scenery and both are similar pitchers..high K’s and high BB rates..equally bad contracts..something to think about
I think the Yankees would enjoy the fact that they would be out from under Z’s contract after ’12. What do you think the specifics would look like? Just a straight swap + cash to even out the salaries?
That’s an interesting idea but three things.
a) It would not shock me if AJ came back and had a good year in 2011.
b) Z, like AJ, has a no-trade clause. AJ can block 10 teams whereas Z has a full no trade. My guess is that he would use that as leverage and demand that the 2013 option of $19.25 mil be picked up as well which balloons the amount due to about $55 mil which is only $6 mil more but forces us to keep him the same amount of years as AJ’s contract.
c) AJ still has good stuff. He lost about 1 mile off of his FB but it was still around 93-94 on average. Z has lost a little on his FB too but his is down to 90 mph. Z throws more pitches (FB, CT, SF, SL and CB) but his loss in velocity makes his FB, CT and SF all come in around that 88-90mph range. If AJ can master and use his CH more then I think he has a little more to keep guys honest.
I think a lot of what went wring with Zambrano had to do with his manager. Carlos is to blame, but Piniella didn’t make things any better. Quade knows how to get the most out of him. Zambrano was a major reason for the Cubs late season turn around.
with the way sale showed up this season i would be there is at least one of the 5 other starters under contract next season could be moved…peavy untouchable because of his contract and possible injury….buhrle contract…danks is way to good to be moved, floyd has too good of a contract to move for his …jackson could be moved but probably as a package with a minor leaguer or two to get a bat in the line up…..buehrle could be moved but more than likely not
I like the idea of Matsuzaka to the Dodgers
I don’t want him to be traded and I don’t think he will, but Joba should garner consideration as a RH starter that might be available. He had a much better year if you look at his peripherals.
2009-2010
K/9 of 9.67 was up from 7.61
BB/9 of 2.76 was down from 4.35
HR/9 of 0.75 was down from 1.20
BABIP of .342 was up from 3.20 which might indicate he was unlucky
ERA was 4.40 but his FIP was 2.98 and xFIP was 3.34 (2010 only)
LD% of 17.2% was down from 21.3%
GB% of 45.6% went up from 42.9%
HR/FB of 7.9% was down from 12.4%
His FB velocity of 94.6 mph went up from 92.5 mph
His O-Swing% (% of pitches a batter swings at outside the strike zone) of 29% was up from 23%
His 2nd half ERA of 2.88 was much lower than the 1st half of 5.79 (2010 only)
His away numbers (ERA-WHIP-KO/BB) of 3.50/1.08/4.63 are much lower than his home of 5.30/1.51/2.69. (2010 only).
The Yanks would be selling low on him, and again I hope they don’t move him, but he would be a great buy low option for a low budget mid-market team looking for a RH young starter.
You still think he can be a starter?
If the Twins get into the trade market for a right handed hitter or a front of the rotation guy they’re likely to make a starter available. Most speculation has centered around Slowey, but the whole herd is similar enough that I suppose mostly any of them could be available in the right deal. But Slowey is the only one without a longer term deal, which might reflect how the organization feels about him, and it might make him more appealing to another team.