The Reds agreed to a three-year, $35MM extension with Bronson Arroyo, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter links). The deal will cover the 2011-13 seasons, though Arroyo was already under contract for $13MM in 2011, since the Reds picked up their club option. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com reports that the contract doesn't include a no-trade clause, but Arroyo will gain 10-and-5 rights in April 2012 and the pitcher was "given enough assurance" by owner Bob Castellini to ensure that he will stay in Cincinnati.
A great deal of Arroyo's salary will be deferred, Rosenthal reports. The hurler will receive $6.5MM in 2011 and $7MM in 2012, but will see $15MM of the $18MM that he is owed in 2013 deferred. It is interesting to note that the deferral is voided if Arroyo is traded. This essentially grants Arroyo a no-trade clause as it is extremely unlikely that any club will want to pay him $18MM in '13.
Arroyo, 34 in Febraury, logged 215 2/3 innings in 2010, reaching 200 innings for the sixth consecutive season. The 11-year-veteran posted a 3.88 ERA with 5.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9.
Ted Lilly, who turns 35 in January, signed a three-year, $33MM contract that may have been a point of reference in the negotiations. Another lefty, Jorge de la Rosa, recently agreed to a three-year, $32MM deal with the Rockies.
New candidate for worst contract of the winter. Congrats Cincy!
How so?
I also don’t see how this is really a bad deal. He did not come cheap, but the deal certainly is not outrageous. Both sides seem to win on this one. Arroyo gets security (3 years) and the Reds maintain a high-quality pitcher who can continue to lead their rotation.
He isn’t high-quality though. His peripherals are not good. You don’t pay a 1.7 WAR pitcher 35$ million. His FIP the last 4 years has been 4.65. He got extremely lucky last year, .246 BABIP. Expect regression over the next 3 years. The marginal difference between him and any other Reds pitcher is not worth 12$ million a year.
I agree with you, although I will say that I believe the Reds decided that a slight overpay was worth the risk, because if they didn’t have him, they’d be relying on a really young pitching staff at a time in which they’re trying to take the next step in playoff contention.
If this is their thinking, then I understand it. He’s probably worth around $8-9 million in free agency dollars, so the extension isn’t horrible, but Arroyo’s obviously not worth $12 million.
Certainly Buck’s deal is worse.
Why? He just does what he does and gets outs? You cant ask more of a pitcher than that.
Gustavo Chacin is available. All he does is win. What more could you ask for?
someone who consistently give you quality starts and has pitched over 200 innings 6 years in a row how about that.
Garland was available and signed for substantially less and younger.
I question this deal.
Garland was available and signed for substantially less and younger.
I question this deal.
He shouldn’t be paid more than Lilly, but it isn’t terrible. Considering they already picked up his $13m option, it is really more like $22m/2 year deal.
Honestly I welcome Arroyo back with open arms for the next 3 seasons at least we know we have a starter that will go 200 innings every year…. baring injury (knocks on wooden desk) With Arroyo I know that with each game he pitches we have a pretty decent chance to win the game cause he will give us at least a quality start 90 percent of the time. Personally I am very happy to hear they are getting this done and offering the staff some consistency that no other starter on that staff can say they have.
WAR? FIP? All I know is the Reds finally posted a winning record and somehow won the division and B.Arroyo was a major part of that. Welcome back, Bronson!
I can see this being like the K.Lohse deal. Have fun with that. The guy has probably his best season and gets a 3yr deal. Have fun Reds
I think Jayson Werth would like a word…
the only thing that came to mind when seeing this was- WHY?
nice pic
As a Reds fan, COME ON!
As a Reds Fan THIS IS JUST WHAT I WANTED!!!!!! Quality , consistency, and a good person to boot on our pitching staff the next 3 seasons.
Grrrrr…. Why Walt?! Why!? Can’t wait for this year’s painful regression. There’s was absolutely no reason to do this now.
What proof do you have that a painful regression is going to happen this year? What part of his mechanics suggests high stress on his shoulder or elbow? Arroyo’s mechanics have allowed him to be the most durable pitcher in the league over the last 5-6 years. It’s not like he is throwing upper 90’s heat which can fall off a cliff when you hit 35. Bronson is a pitcher in every sense of the word. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pitch effectively for another 4-5 years.
Thank you for posting this , now I don’t have to …. Love how lots here think he is suddenly going to stink up the place. Not saying he won’t either but his track record is good to continue to be good.
Perhaps you misunderstood what I meant by “painful” – not a regression of performance due to pain he’ll experience, but rather a regression of performance which will be painful for us fans to experience.
My “proof” (supporting data — nobody can prove the future and I would hope you wouldn’t assume that I thought I knew that with absolute certainty):
http://www.redszone.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2301827&postcount=404.
In short, he’s put up declining peripherals the last two seasons which have been more than offset by a massively improved Reds defense. However, his 2010 BABIP (.246) was the lowest in the NL last year and not even close to sustainable (the lowest career BABIP I’m aware of is Mariano Riveras of .273).
He’s not a bad pitcher. But he’s not as good as his ERA would suggest and the Reds have a wealth of young pitchers lined up to replace him. The extension just doesn’t make sense. Even if Walt wanted to keep him around, it’s not like his price was going to go up any come next winter.
I was gonna congratulate Cincy, while not the sexiest signing ever Arroyo has been a solid rock for them…Definitely deserved it
Not a Reds fan by any stretch but Arroyo is Younger and more durable than Ted Lilly and they essentially signed the same deal. Their numbers are very comprable. You will get a solid not spectacular high 3’s era with over 200 innings. Seems like a solid enough deal especially on a team with so many young arms that will eat into a bullpen
Over the past 4 years, Lilly has put up far superior numbers than Arroyo.
far superior? I would say when you calculate the innings differnce they are essentially the same guy. so the deal isn’t overly awful just a fair market value
Lilly is 34 and Arroyo is 33, younger by a year. Really, that’s a big deal? I think not. It’s not like Arroyo is 5-6 years younger and has any bit of potential left. Both pitchers are what they are. Arroyo has pitched more innings, but it’s not like Lilly’s a 5-inning pitcher. As for performance, Arroyo is more a match for Jon Garland and his $5 million + incentives than he is Lilly. Lilly’s numbers are considerably better than Arroyo’s.
That contract just made Carl Pavano more expensive, didn’t it? Not that I’d be against giving Arroyo an extension if I were Cincy, but it seems like they overpaid a bit.Still, it’s not an awful contract, and overpaying by a total of $5-8 million over a span of three years isn’t going to break the bank or prevent them from signing someone they want.I’d definitely be more comfortable with 3 years/$27 million though.
The deal makes sense. You get 200 innings a year w/ a low 4.00 ERA in a hitter’s park. They deal also saves the Reds around $1.5m this year (from the $13m option they picked up to $11.6m per). You also have to be realistic: the Reds aren’t going to find anyone better to pitch in GABP for $11.5m / year.
Seems to me like the Reds probably cost themselves $2m by picking up his $13m option. He probably would’ve agreed to $33m/3 years otherwise (considering he’s basically agreeing to $22m over 2 years). But probably not worth making a stink about.
I don’t know how far apart the sides were on a new contract before Jocketty picked up the option for this year, but you make a fair point there.
There could be some deferred money in the contract. Not all the details are out yet and just so everyone knows from the moment I am typing this, it is not an official deal as of yet.
You’re wrong, Hullo. It’s not like Arroyo is relying on velocity, thus he’s unlikely to regress much over the next three years. He’s probably the most durable pitcher in baseball, and his numbers are misleading in that he usually has three or four horrendous starts each year that inflate his numbers. As a Reds fan, I like the signing. This gives us some veteran stability to anchor all the youngsters in our rotation.
“He’s probably the most durable pitcher in baseball”
Roy Halladay?
Roy Halladay and Bronson Arroyo are on the same level when speaking solely in terms of durability. Nobody else compares to the BOTH of them in that category.
Derek Lowe just finished his 9th consecutive season of over 182 innings pitched(every season since becoming a full-time starter). In 5 of those, Lowe has topped 200 innings and 210 innings in 4 of them. 8 of those 9 years he topped 190 innings….
I just felt he deserved a mention….
So your saying Arroyo is not durable??? what is your point
Lol. I don’t think he said Arroyo wasn’t durable…
Arguments could also be made for -Zito (despite his mediocrity, 10 consecutive years of 180+ IP)Sabathia (10 consecutive years of 180+ IP)Garland (9 consecutive years of 190+ IP)Oswalt (7 consecutive years of 180+ IP)Haren (6 consecutive years of 215+ IP)Buehrle (10 consecutive years of 200+ IP) andVazquez (prior to this season, he had pitched 198+ innings for the previous 10 seasons)Probably missed a couple others…
Probably missed a couple others…. OK well that is fine.. but 6 years over 200 innings is a really good start for Arroyo. Don’t ya think???
I was replying to the statement that “Roy Halladay and Bronson Arroyo are on the same level when speaking solely in terms of durability. Nobody else compares to the BOTH of them in that category.”
Clearly, many other pitchers compare to them in that category. I’m not taking anything away from Arroyo by refuting that false statement.
I was replying to the statement that “Roy Halladay and Bronson Arroyo are on the same level when speaking solely in terms of durability. Nobody else compares to the BOTH of them in that category.”
Clearly, many other pitchers compare to them in that category. I’m not taking anything away from Arroyo by refuting that false statement.
Stop being so defensive. This post wasn’t to bash on Arroyo… Honorable mentions perhaps?
Exactly!!!! As a statistics professor I always tell my students, “Don’t just look at the numbers, look at what made the numbers.”
Arroyo is better than his numbers indicate….Now did the Reds really need to extend him…the jury’s out…but as far as being worth it and a solid pitcher….fair deal!!
This just in: Bronson Arroyo has been traded to the Diamondbacks.
Solid re-signing, though we will see what type of pitcher he is in 2013
This is a lot of money for an insurance policy. The Reds are already loaded with good pitching with Chapman, Volquez, Cueto, Wood, Leake AND Homer Bailey. Why oh why would they waste this much money for someone who is just an insurance policy in case one of the above breaks down? And let’s not forget they also signed Dontrelle Willis this offseason. If he gets it together, that would make 8 possible starting pitchers on the Reds roster. I certainly would’ve preferrred to see the Reds not sign Arroyo and use that money towards a Votto extension.
Dontrelle Willis is done.
You don’t know that but, I would be shocked if he came back to being even a decent number 4 starter now. keeping my fingers crossed you never can tell with baseball.
I also forgot that teams win with 5 pitchers?
Lets see the names you have mentioned…..How many have a history of success over 6 years..
OH shocker Zero!!!!!! That is why they signed him to an extension.
Further notes… by me
Chapman
Has pitched only in September at the major league level, huge ceiling on this guy but nothing is proven so far.
Volquez
Amazing his first full year with the Reds. Did all right in 2010 in 2nd half but was not his old self by a far margin. Again no proven consistency
Cueto
Ok this might be the only guy you named that has been fairly consistent with his time with the Reds. I think he only looks like a good number 3 pitcher though. Maybe number 2 in the rotation at best. Still needs another good solid year to prove he can keep it up though.
Wood
Great 2010 season but again no track record for success at the major league level. 1 year does not make you an automatically good pitcher
Leake
Amazing first few months of the season , was quite impressed with this kid but again its only been a single season. I do think Leake could end up eventually becoming the next Arroyo though for this team they seem really alike in their style of pitching and heck they kinda look alike too. lol..
Bailey
This guy has been a roller coaster since he started with Cincinnati with injuries and if you say he has been consistent you need to get your eyes checked.
Why do they waste so much money…. .Tell you why .. Consistency over 6 years that is why.
Pitching Pitching Pitching…the teams that are in the top are the ones with the greatest pitching depth. Because no way the same 5 starters make it through out the year completely healthy. Plus There is always risk of regression, it is so hard to predict a lot of pitchers from one year to the next…that is why this is a decent sign, because Arroyo is a known consistent commodity.
Pitching Pitching Pitching…the teams that are in the top are the ones with the greatest pitching depth. Because no way the same 5 starters make it through out the year completely healthy. Plus There is always risk of regression, it is so hard to predict a lot of pitchers from one year to the next…that is why this is a decent sign, because Arroyo is a known consistent commodity.
Chapman and Volquez has a tendency to get wild and not throw strikes, Cueto can be a hot head. Talent yes, results well lets remember how they pitched in the playoffs, don’t have to say another word. Arroyo……overpaid
Of course, anyone who isn’t a Reds fan probably won’t be going to heaven.
I was a Reds fan for 3 days during the NLDS. Is that good enough?
Ya me too and they totally let me down, I had to end up pulling for the Giants in the end..which is not too bad.
All four teams I could have rooted for were eliminated in the first round.As a Dodger fan, I couldn’t bring myself to root for the Giants. At the same time, I couldn’t bring myself to root for the Rangers because I kept seeing George W. Bush among their fans.I ended up rooting for natural disaster.
I am a Nats fan, so I root for a man made disaster
Ya me too and they totally let me down, I had to end up pulling for the Giants in the end..which is not too bad.
Reds fans would just have to hope that this contract won’t be the reason why they fail to sign some of their younger guys to extensions. It’s about market value, but I wouldn’t go there if I were a GM.
This is also a Bronson Arroyo that gave up the guitar to focus on baseball, and if I’m not mistaken his bad starts GENERALLY came while he had his carpal tunnel flaring up but he did not want to use it as an excuse.
Good Signing, has pitched very well historically in the 2nd half of the season
What crack are you on? Close to $12 mil for Arroyo? FAIL
Probably the same crack you are on. 12MM isn’t that bad of a deal for Arroyo.
Keep telling yourself that. This is the worst signing this offseason to date.
Not at all, hes better than most of the FA pitchers already signed, he was a good pitcher n a good team last year and he will continue to do so
I think they signed him to pitch three full seasons… not three 2nd halves.
He’ll pitch 200 quality innings a year, not bad for a guy who will probably be a 4-5th starter
If this signing affects the Reds’ ability to give Votto or any of their other young stars an extension then this is a bad deal.
I doubt that will be the case. Votto and Bruce will be heading toward there first year of F.A. at the end of this deal. (Unless of course, they lock them up long term).
These people are funny. One thing i have learned since Walt Jocketty took over a few years ago: The guy is a better gm than me and he’s a better gm than you. In my mind his track record is impeccable at cincy and while I wouldn’t have done this deal, knowing he wanted it, makes me like it. This is a TWO year extension at 11 mil per. Two years and 11 mil for a guy that posts 200+ ip, an ERA around 4 in arguably the best hitting park in the world, a near guarantee top 10 finish in quality starts, a gold glove, 15+ wins the past two years, he’s better in the 2nd half when things are on the line, and he provides leadership and consistency for one of the youngest teams in MLB. He’s not a ace, we already have 4 potential one of those. My GM is spending money trying to ensure my team will be competitive, I am happy. The Reds took a big step in 2010 but Walt thinks they are in line to be special in the near future and I’m glad we locked up the best 4th pitcher in the mlb.
Everyone relax. It’s two years at 11 mil per for a solid, consistent, veteran presence. Do people on here really think Walt would sign Bronson at the expense of a Votto extension. It really makes me wonder. Walt is a great GM at the MLB level. IMO he has had an extremely impressive stint with the Reds. He knows more about fair market value than you, he knows how to put a winning team on the field in a very short amount of time when given a sub-par team with a decade of losing on it’s back. I trust the guy. We are loaded with young talent and we do need some veteran presence to succeed. I know you all get that.
I hope you also get that Walt isn’t going to write a check to bronson and say “oh shoot i forgot about that joey guy, i guess i can’t afford him now. My bad.”
Let the man do his job and be proud he and ownership are SPENDING money, trying to ensure the Reds stay atop the NL central for the next couple of years like we all expect.
He’s a good pitcher, and 200 IP at roughly league average FIP certainly has value, but I think it’s a bit of an overpay – nothing crazy, but..
If we agree (and I think most people would) that you can pretty much lump Arroyo in with guys like Lilly/Wolf/Blanton, I think Arroyo’s $12.3 million per year average is a bit high. Lilly’s deal is a little high also but he’s left-handed…
Doesn’t really matter though, because I’m sure the Reds really value being able to pencil in 200 innings from him in order to help stabilize an otherwise young staff.
I think I would have waited midway through the season to start talking extension, or even after the season. In terms of market value it’s really a fair deal for his consistency although him being 36/37 in the final year worries me.
Also, this extension makes one of Leake/Wood/Bailey expendable in a package for a trade to acquire the much needed leadoff hitter this offseason. Have my fingers crossed the Sox sign Werth or Crawford and the Reds go for Ellsbury.
Now you’re talking. I wouldn’t give up Wood though
I have been a fan of Arroyo since he pitched in Boston. He has a lot of guts and will give you 200 quality innings a year. Good for him and the club.
this is a good deal. i would venture to say that most of the people that say this is a bad deal were the same people saying that the reds were trhe laughing stock of baseball when they traded the great Wily Mo Pena for Arroyo…