7:44pm: Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports that the contract would also include a sixth year club option that could push the total value of the deal to $78MM (Twitter link).
7:05pm: The Blue Jays and Jose Bautista are close to agreeing to a five-year contract extension worth approximately $65MM, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes. The deal would also include financial support for Bautista's charitable activities in Toronto and the Dominican Republic. Some details still need to be worked out and a physical must take place before the contract is finalized.
As our Arbitration Tracker shows, Bautista filed for $10.5MM his final time through arbitration, the team $7.6MM. A five-year contract would buy out his final year of arbitration plus four free agent years. The two sides asked to have their arbitration hearing pushed back earlier this week, and indication that they were closing in on deal.
Bautista, 30, is coming off a historic 2010 season in which he hit 54 homers, the 19th highest single-season total in history. He also drew 100 walks, so his prodigous power output was backed up by a .378 OBP. Of course that was the first time Bautista performed at a star level. He'd hit just .238/.329/.400 with 59 homers in over 2,000 career plate appearances coming into 2010, so the Jays are clearly expecting Bautista to repeat last year's performance into his mid-30's.
Wow
If this is the outcome of not going to arbitration with him, we should have just gone ahead with it and hoped to sign him after the next season.
A lot of money for a guy who can’t hit leftys (just look at his splits), He had a great 2nd half but but i wouldn’t put him the same range of Adam Dunn’s 4yrs/$56. Its just one expensive game of craps.
In fairness, until 2010 he was sort of the opposite – in that he only hit lefties well.
Good Lord, that’s an awful contract.
Not true, 65 million will buy a lot of HGH.
How mad are you right now
not a jays fan . . .
i bet half the people on here saying “this is such a great deal what is there to loose!?!” are the same people that screamed bloody murder when CarGo signed his 7 yr 80m extension
One is about to become a FA soon and the other one becomes a FA 4 years later. Gee, I wonder why people didn’t like that deal.
Different circumstances, CarGo has 3 or 4 more arb years and this is Jose’s last one so he hits the open market next year without this deal. I would like to point out that I like the CarGo deal I am just pointing out the differences.
Getting (Mariners) Beltre’d bad
It’s funny because even in his worst seasons with the Mariners Beltre was worth his contract.
I think the one year that he bottomed out he was worth less than his contract (in terms of WAR at least). But the Mariner’s definitely got more than their money’s worth over the life of the deal.
He had two years where he was a 2.5 win player. In the early one he wasn’t getting paid as much, and in the later one the price of wins on the free agent market was higher. I think it evened out in both cases.
Either way, we both obviously agree that Beltre was undoubtedly worth his contract.
Definitely–in his worst years he was at least close, and in his best years he was obviously a bargain.
You two obviously did not follow the Mariners during the Beltre tenure. He may have posted great defensive numbers, but so did Jack Wilson during his time in Pittsburgh. Beltre did not have “best years,” in Seattle, he had a year where he almost had 100 RBI and barely cleared at .800 OPS, and the rest were mediocre by 3B standards and EXTREMELY mediocre when in comparison to comparable contracts EXCLUDING Richie Sexson.
But you two can agree about how much of a bargain he was until you end up agreeing that, in the end, the Mariners should have paid more for that .266 AVG in a career with Seattle…
So they’re getting a good player who will be worth his salary but not post Babe Ruth like numbers like he did in his previous year? That’s fine by me, and probably for the Blue Jays to.
I hope all those years arent guaranteed
this is either gonna be a huge steal or a giant bust.
Thinking the same thing. This could easily be a “Alex Rios” kind of deal. I wonder if he asked for a no trade clause and if he did, are the Angels on the list?
As if AA would ever offer a no-trade clause to the Angels after his last pillaging. Maybe to the other 29 teams, though.
I think people give Rios a bad rap. No, he’s not a superstar, but he’s not overpaid. I’d say he’s paid how he deserves to be paid.
rios gets a bad rap because he put up back to back -WAR seasons. In the last 3 seasons he’s been paid ~$21MM and has put up a cumulative 0.8 WAR. I think he deserves his bad rap (and will get just that) until he returns to form as the 4 win player that got him that big contract.
Rios had a .4 WAR in 2009. The year before, he had a 5.4 WAR. Last year, he had a 3.7 WAR. Both of his good seasons would justify his salary, and it is entirely possible his .4 WAR season was an anomaly (bad form, something going through his head, etc.). After saying he maid adjustments in the 09-10 offseason, he returned to form.
For the record, I believe you used baseball-reference to get your stats, which breaks up a year in which a player is dealt, to say that he was -WAR in consecutive years. The only year he had a -WAR was ’09, and according to Fangraphs (which I used/prefer), he was not even negative.
you’re right about the 09 thing. BBR’s WAR’s actually have him at 2.8 last year, -1.4/-0.6 in 09, and 4.5 last year. Fangraphs and BBR don’t usually have this big of a discrepency between their WAR #’s tho. BBR has him at 3WAR over 3 years, which isn’t special for $21MM.
According to Fangraphs, he was worth 9.5 WAR over 3 seasons, which is definitely deserving of $21 Million. I think this can be attributed to defense, as UZR absolutely loves his D (especially in 2008 where he was a +20 player, equivalent to 2 whole wins (!) in defense while B-Ref has him at -2.3). I prefer UZR to B-Ref’s system, but I highly doubt Rios was worth as much as it has said. That being said, I think that Rios is probably what he is being paid as: a 3 win player, and that 2009 was just a really bad year for him.
The old $5M/win figure for free agents does tend to ignore that it’s a bimodal distribution.
or somewhere in between.
That Vernon Wells money is burning a hole in their pocket.
we saved appx 70-88MM.
If Jose sucks, we’d lose <65M
If he does good, imagine the money we save as opposed to getting Fielder/Pujols.
Sry..it almost sounded like you were saying that Bautista’s extension just killed any need to get Pujols……almost like Bautista was a good substitute. That’s not what you were saying right?
Indeed he was. Give me Pujols batting behind Bautista any day, and twice on Sundays.
Take your pick.
Bautista for $65/5 years
or Pujols for possibly $300 million/10 years
I don’t think Pujols is going to be able to name his contract.
Pujols. You know what you’ll get out of him.
Yeah, perhaps for the next 3-4 years.
How about when he hits north of 35? +40?
Not a ton of players in the majors who have had success in the late years, especially in this era.
There’s not a lot of player like Albert Pujols or Babe Ruth either. Ill take my chances with pujols from years 36-41.
…opposed to Bautista – who has not had a lot of success in his career.
i would take a 40 year old Pujols over a 35 year old bautista
This assumes an awful lot.
1) The Jays can entice Pujols or Fielder to sign in TOR.
2) The richest ownership group in baseball has finite spending, even after saying repeatedly that they would increase spending.
3) “We’d lose <65M." Bautista would need to regress to WORSE than what he was before this season to simply lose anything remotely close to $65M on this.
4) $65/5 or whatever is all guaranteed money. We all know that AA loves his club options, and I'd be shocked if there wasn't some kind of club opt-out clause or huge incentive bonus factored in to this deal.
Five years!?
They could end up with Vernon Wells 2.0 on their hands here. Yikes.
what!? Wells makes twice that much in AAV!
Only half the price, though.
Or they could end up with Alex Rios 2.0, which would be even better if they hadn’t given away Alex Rios 1.0.
Weird thing about it, Rios is the reason for Bautista starting.
Don’t worry, the Angels are waiting to take on the heavy part of the contract
I hope the jokes about the Angels taking Wells contract never stop. I find them extremely hilarious.
I love them too. They make the Dodgers look at least a little better…
like as if the dodgers look so much better than the angels with loney projected batting cleanup
I believe Kemp is projected to bat cleanup, but yes.
I gota a baaaaaaad feeling about this. Can’t AA just let Toronto relish in the Vernon Wells deal for a few more months?
Well if arod makes 30million a year… and Jose Bautista numbers from last year atleast deserves some money. I dont even mind if he hit 30 hr next year. It’s only works out to 13 million per year. He has a rocket of an arm, he can play 3B, RF, LF. This guy is the real deal. Aslong as he plays in the roger center he will hit those line drive homeruns.
very surprising
I really thought it would be something shorter.
If Bautista is half of how amazing he was last year this will be a great deal for the Jays.
Wrong! If Bautista hits .280, 25 hr, 85 for basically a 4 yr 14 mil per extension minus the 9 mil for next year the he’s basically JD Drew without the defense and obp! Terrible contract that saved the Jays nothing!
Depends how many walks you think he’ll draw. (Also, Drew can’t play 3B full stop.)
…are you dumb?? Ya i forgot Bautista is incredibly weak defensively and horrible with obp (sarcasm)
Well if you judge by RBIs, I’m gonna assume you don’t understand. But .280/25/.360 guy with decent defense is worth what Bautista got paid.
Bautista drew 100 walks last year and had .380 OBP. Not bad at all…
That is good any day of the week. If he can keep that up, along with 30 HR power. It is a fair deal for both sides.
batiste way better defensively! jd has no versatility and batiste has more speed….bautistas arm is a gun…..you have obviously never seen him play
“batiste way better defensively! jd has no versatility and batiste has more speed….bautistas arm is a gun…..you have obviously never seen him play ”
And Bill Hall is an elite defender. Versatility =/= quality defense. I honestly am not familiar with Bautista’s defense in right, but he’s reputably awful at third. As for Drew, he is capable of playing all three outfield positions, has a great arm and is known as one of the best defensive right fielders in the game.
Drew is ranked top 5 defensive RF in all of MLB, and has been for several years running. Bautista is nowhere near that good of a defensive player, at any position.
If all of that is guaranteed it’s dumb. Not going to believe it is though. Not yet anyway…
Please, allow me:
drunkjaysfans.com/
All Major League contracts are guaranteed. It’s not like football where you can give player x 35 million with 14 million guaranteed. Unless you are referring to incentives and/or options, which is a different issue
He clearly is referring to options.
And incentives.
And different issues.
I guess I have a different understanding as to what he meant by “guaranteed”. Either way, as Rosenthal said it’s all “guaranteed” save the 6th option year, which was not reported when the O.P. posted.
and some kind of sexy opt-out clause/deferred money.
AA doesnt sign players to incentive deals. Likely talking about options or a buyout clause.
eww…would prefer a much shorter contract
that or a lot of the 65 mil is support for bautista charities, atleast 10 million
Dollars per year sound about right to me, but 5 years seems a little too long. I hope only 3 are guaranteed.
a) yes its a decent amount of money
b) its really not that crippling
c) none of us know whats going to happen, just shut up and see what he does
Yeah, why in the world would anyone come on a website about baseball rumors and speculation and actually speculate about how good/bad they think a player and his contract will be. That just plain absurd.
It’s an incredibly risky contract, but yeah, it’s not exactly the worst contract ever given. Personally, I’d say it’s very ill advised, but the risk isn’t so high as people make it out to be. If it works out, people are going to call AA a genius in retrospect, but if it doesn’t work out, well, it’s bad, but not crippling.
Agreed with your balanced view, although I personally think 4 years, $48MM would be the max I’d hand out to him. He’s only worth these kinds of dollars if he consistently repeats his breakout year numbers, which I think is highly unlikely. I do predict that Alex will regret this, but not in the way that the Jays regretted the Vernon Wells deal, prior to the LA Suckers, uhm, Angels, coming along.
Holy crap…thats ridiculous. Do not do it…not this season, at least. Go to arbitration, and then if he repeats this year, then sign him. Not that I really care though…I’m a Phils fan 🙂
If they went to arbitration this year and settled on just one year and he repeats last season’s production, he instantly turns into a $15 million per guy on the market. Meaning it would take a lot more to lock him up….
And we can tell you’re a Phillies fan 🙂
What is more likely though? He repeats his historical season he had last year, or he returns closer to his career numbers?
black and white are we? how about somewhere in the middle!?
Can’t imagine we’d be comfortable with signing hiim to Jayson Werth contract, even if he did repeat. Frankly, people are so quick to jump on him being a fluke that they’d probably still think he won’t go 3-for-3.
And if he sucks going forward then AA will just trade him away and all’s good.
Wow. Kind of cool that they’re contributing to his charitable endeavors though.
Yeah… Knowing AA I’m sure at least 2 years will be options. Similar to Hill’s contract. Or so I hope anyways!
ummm……..why not just give him the $10.5 million and make him prove he’s not a fluke instead of piling another $55 million on top of him?
Because Bautista would be able to negotiate with 30 teams instead of 1.
because if he proves he isn’t a fluke, he can get over 100million on the open market. easily.
Even if he had another good year he wouldn’t get 100 million!
jayson werth..end of discussion
So because the Nats drastically overpaid then that means all Werth-ish guys will get the same or better?
Also, I think that most ppl are saying “let’s see what he does in 2011” and then go from there.
Say what you want about Werth but he had 3 years of good production to go off of.
No I think the point is that teams can make extremely idiotic trades/signings.
Ex. The Werth signing, The Wells trade
It also sets a precedent. Someone puts up numbers better than Werth and becomes a free agent, they’re going to want to get more than Werth money, especially if they’re any younger than Werth.
This concept is overblown. Nobody’s handed out a 7 year deal to a junkball pitcher since Barry Zito drugged the Giants front office into overpaying him. A player can ask all they want, and probably will, but just because one guy got extremely overpaid, doesn’t mean others will, especially when everyone in the world acknowledges it was an extreme overpay. Heck, I’m pretty sure even Boras was asking “are you sure?” when that Werth deal was offered.
Depending on how good it is, yeah he could. Say he gets a 40-45 HR season, teams will be lining up with loads of cash for him. If he gets 30-35, he could get around 70.
Look at what Jayson Werth just got.
Have you seen Jayson Werth’s contract?
I dunno. Werth got a big contract for doing mostly less [if Bautista in some degree repeats].
Jayson Werth did, why can’t he?
why do you put exclamation marks at the end of every sentence? Its sort of annoying..like your talking as if your mad 24/7
Jayson Werth had two “good” seasons. Look where that got him.
He actually had 3 good seasons. 2008: 5.1 WAR, 2009: 4.9, 2010: 5.0.
Jose’s WAR 6.9 leaves 2 years to get a 8.1 that be like a 4.1 and a 4? Looks attainable
Because then the Jays could be looking at nearer $100m than $65m. And even if he did repeat, you can bet people would be saying “He’s only had two great years, and he’s hitting his age 31 season…”
worked for Werth.
This is the same contract Beltre got after his huge year, although he was an unrestricted free agent, was younger, and considered an elite defender. It was also 6 years ago.
So basically it was nothing like the Beltre situation?
Also similar to the 5/62 deal for Uggla. Uggla = more proven years of 30 homer power. Bautisita = higher upside.
Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star deserves kudos. He called the Uggla deal a benchmark for both sides.
once weeks got 5 yr 50 mil i thought that bautista would get a contract worth atleast 14$ per year, but its the length thats bothering me, hopefully once like weeks when the details are out there are team options involved.
Weeks is younger and plays a premium position.
Yeah, because being able to play second base with a noodle arm is much better than being able to play above average defense in right and third with a cannon of an arm. Since when is second base a premium position? I know there aren’t as many “great” second baseman out there, but come on, how many teams need a great second basemen?
I was going to guess 2-3 years with a fourth year option at 40M combined for 4 years but 5/65 seems to be a little higher than anyone suspected.
I was hoping for the same money but at 3 or 4 years. Five years seems a little long but even if he comes down to 30hrs this is a good deal. I hop this doesn’t backfire.
Bautista’s the only player I’ve heard of thats including a charity into his contract.
Even if I’m wrong about that, it’s truly a reason to love the guy.
Usually the contract requires the player to contribute to the team’s charity, not the other way around.
Almost every Jay who has made half decent money has had that in his contract
Good for you Jose Bautista.
People who are critical as to why the blue jays made this move need to actually think about free agent outfielders. Werth got 126 mil for what 2-3 good years? Free agent OFs are in HUGE demand, and if he comes anywhere close to what he did this here he will easily demand a vernon wells contract on the open market. This is a smart move, if he regresses he could still probably hit 20-30 home runs a year. Some people just take a little longer to develop, however if he stays consistently at 40+ hrs for an OF this would go down as a huge steal.
Totally agree with you Paul. Look at the going rate for an outfielder (that can also play 3B as well) who will hit 30 HR and 100 RBI.
Agree with you Dave. And how many 30/100 men have a ceiling of 54 home runs? How many prospects have that ceiling, Jays or otherwise?
Bautista does. He’s proven it too.
I think the logic is that the Jays seemed to be overly optimistic about Bautista rather than playing it safer and limiting the risks. Contrary, I really don’t think OF’ers are in “high” demand. Werth wasn’t an “elite” talent at all. He literally fell @ss backwards into a great contract. Anything less than 25-30 hrs and a decent OBP (.350+) and that contract will look bad. It won’t cripple the Jays because even w/ Halladay, Wells and Rios they probably could’ve spent more if the scenario made sense (ability to win AL East, long term outlook) but it seems like a huge leap of faith. I agree that Bautista would’ve been tougher to sign on the open market next year but would he have received more than Adam Dunn’s 4/$56 he signed this winter. Bautista is a more complete player because he can play a defensive position at at least lge avg ability but Dunn was a model of consistency with several 40 hr seasons and high OBP performance.
I agree dunn is a model of consistency, but he can only play offense, not defense. He strikes out a lot, puts up hrs and rbis with a meh average. Consistently every single year. Thing is, the strike outs, atrocious defense, and meh average really really really bring down his value. He is THE prototypical DH and that really killed his worth.
They might be overly optimistic but eh whats 10 mil a year for a team that has some money you know? even a 20-30 hr season will give them close to their value. I think he would have commanded more hten dun stricly because he can play the OF with competence and 3b, 2 positions that teams will pay for. Dunn is just a DH.
I love how you use average for your argument. Dont forget he gets on base too. He walks a lot and that offsets his low average…
Right, he does get on base, but his on base % has on a steady decline and not as consistent as his other numbers.
I love Adam Dunn, but bautista would be worth more with another repeat season.
Just because Washington set the bar on ignorant contracts doesn’t mean the rest of MLB will be lined up with similar offers for Bautista.
Pujols can’t / won’t get Arod money because the rest of the league sees how bad of a contract that is going to be.
Didnt Bay get 66 million? holliday 120? Crawford got what 130? You can say werth fell into it, but still some team is willing to pay it when you are one of 2 ofs out there. I could see him getting a beltre contract at least if he put up anohter 40+ hr season, if for nothing else then the reason he would be the best free agent OF out there and the cubs/mets and perhaps dodgers will have money to spend.
Jesus, you guys are smoking crack if you think a 3 year deal is a possibility.
A “Vernon Wells” type salary for a player who can get injured playing baseball.
Is 75% of what Vernon Wells got for fewer years than he got still a Vernon Wells-type salary?
I’m not sure exactly what you mean, but the salary isn’t even close to what Wells got, in years or AAS
Umm.. not even close to what VW received. But ya keep presuming like a donk.
Not a good deal if that’s all guaranteed years…. however, it could still end up being a great deal for the Jays or it could backfire.
I am hoping it’s 4+option which I would be fine with.
woah woah, folks – Alex Anthopoulos is the one making this deal … we are supposed to be universally in support and filling the comments section with chants of ‘best GM ever’ and ‘AA is a genius’
get on the ball here, people!
AA is a genius, this deal only confirms him as being the best GM ever
That’s more like it!
I like this guy. Stick around.
I’m curious how the reporter saying this even knows this, unless he’s sitting at the door of the negotiating room with a cup on his ear, given that Anthopoulos has said repeatedly there’d be no comment until the deal is done. I’ll hold my opinion in check until I see a reliable report that any deal is actually done.
rojas has been breaking a lot of the bautista/jays rumors, so i take this as truth
AA should be given the right of all free men… to be innocent until proven guilty.
This rumor is making it hard to accept that he deserves that right, though.
AA might not be the chatty one, but Jose seems to know how to use his Rogers Blackberry.
Rojas has carved himself a nice little niche with scoops on the Spanish-speaking players.
Yep, and he is probably one of the more accurate reporters out there
Unfortunately I don’t consider any of you jokers reliable, funny as you may be, so I’m still waiting until tomorrow morning. Not that I care either way, I’d be happy if he was locked up or traded for prospects.
“I’m curious how the reporter saying this even knows this, unless he’s sitting at the door of the negotiating room with a cup on his ear…”
a) Player’s family
b) Player’s agent
c) Club official
d) mlb office (all deals have to be sent in for their approval. a lot of leaks come from there.
e) Wikileaks…that d@mn Julian Assange has ppl everywhere!!!!
Such pessimistic post on here, the guy has the beard of Chuck Norris, 5 years is going to be great, he is a great player, you want to go for a 2 year deal and watch him ask for 20 million a season? This is a great signing for the Blue Jays and shouldn’t hurt the Jays at all.
+1 for “beard of chuck norris!”
no wait, everyone knows chuck is in a league of his own…
so instead of +1, he gets a guaranteed minimum of +2!!
Chuck Norris is Known to hit baseballs 500 feet, Bautista is Known to Hit Chuck Norris 500 feet.
I like the deal. It gives both sides security, both of whom have room for error. If Bautista regresses to a 25 HR/Year guy, he becomes slightly overpaid (but not by much), and the Jays lose a bit of flexibility (though not debilitating by any means). If he is 30-35 HRs with similar peripherals, he will outperform his salary slightly, and if he is close to what he was last year, he will be a steal for the Jays. Personally, I think he will be a 35 HR/year or more guy, and like the deal for the Jays.
Wow. Now I’m just curious what Bautista did with his other two wishes.
Used one of them to hit 54 homeruns last year
And for his last wish, a beard that replenishes 12 seconds after shaving!
UUUUHHHHHH
looks like AA isnt scared of dishing out contracts… probably because he gets rid of them so easily…. i see jays getting fielder now
I think this is a bad move. What’s the harm in just taking Bautista to arbitration, and then seeing if his 2010 season was a fluke or for real?
That’s true but if he does have another season like last year then he would probably want to test free agency to get the most money he could.
You’d have to think there would be a far, far less likely chance of Bautista staying if he had another strong season. AA is rolling the dice, but we can’t let Wells/Rios make us totally risk-averse. It looks like Bautista will be AA’s totem for the Jays’ contention years.
rios really was not a bad deal he had a bad season and was destroyed in the media because of that whole fan autograph thing he almost had to be moved because of that. yes his bad year didnt help but thats not why. As for wells it was a different GM who thought that Wells would not get injured and just could not keep up to his deal.
Isn’t Fielder the Stay Puft Marshmallow Man? Even if he is a 1B, Anthopoulos wants athleticism.
Where’s Ray Stantz when you need him..
When AA asks you if you’re a god, you say YES
Well done.
I tried to think of the most harmless thing. Something I loved from my childhood. Something that could never ever possibly destroy us. Mr. Anthopoulos!
I guess I’m in the huge minority here, but I like this deal. I think if the following were to happen next season…..
a) 30-35 home runs
b) carry his career average for OBP of 100 points higher than BA (with at least .260 BA)
c) play a versatile role (3B and RF)
d) make up the difference in lost HR’s with some doubles
….he would have been in line for close to $15 million on the open market, based on the off season spending I’ve witnessed this year. Honestly, is it any difference than Konerko’s or Dunn’s deal with the Chi Sox ,or Jayson Werth’s deal with the Nationals? But he will have to prove that his power is genuine. Averaging 16 home runs will not cut it for this kind of money, but I think 30 home runs does. If he regresses to the kind of stats above, he is basically Jayson Werth (see his 2009 stats, they basically mirror above).
Not to say that he is worth Jayson Werth money, but it only takes one team to think he is to offer him that kind of money.
Dually noted friend, but Konerko, Dunn, and even Werth have all proved they can put up consistent numbers. I mean for Pete’s sake, this is the same Jose Bautista that was traded for by my Royals, and then flipped not more than a month later. I just can not believe that this guy has gone from journeyman utility player to monster power hitter, all at age 30. If this works out, then great, because I’m all for seeing the Blue Jays make some noise in the East. But AA is about to take on a huge, career-defining gamble.
career defining? hardly…
I don’t know if it career defining. If this is one mistake out of 20 transactions, it will be a blip in AA’s career. If this is the beginning of ludicrous contracts (aka Riccardi 2.0), then it will have been the first of his career defining moments, which I very much hope it is not.
Bad baseball contracts happen to every, I repeat every GM. It’s the ones that can limit the number of times that it happens that will be in the conversations with the best GM’s in the game.
But I don’t think a player can hit 50 home runs and be a bad player. That might not be the player he is, but it gives a reason to think there is at least a shadow of that player for the next 5 seasons. Brady Anderson never hit 50 again, but it doesn’t mean he didn’t have some good seasons.
And let’s face it, $13 million is not uncommon for MLB teams to have. I looked it up, only 6 teams do NOT have a player earning over $10 million.
dunn and konerko have been much more consistant over their careers and have proven their power numbers unlike jose who had a flash in the pan season. as for werth this is much like his deal tons of money based off a short sample. and dunn and konerko didnt get as much money
I would agree with the consistency aspect. Dunn and Konerko have both proven their worth based on far more than 1 year. But at the same time, both those players carries some risk as well. Konerko is no spring chicken and does have some risk at aging quick. Dunn doesn’t possess the most athletic body in the world, which would scare me a little. But it sounds like he’ll DH mostly, which would reduce the wear.
And realistically speaking, this is not a Vernon Wells deal. $13 million is far more manageable on an MLB roster than $21. Maybe it should have been closer to $10, but for some clubs that’s a rounding error.
OMG. Didn’t the Jays just get rid of a bad(not so bad compared to this)contract?
You’ve got to separate ‘bad contracts’ from ‘expensive contracts’. Just because it’s expensive, doesn’t necessarily mean it will turn out to be bad. The Jays can’t expect to contend without rolling the dice on this sort of thing once in a while.
How do you know it is bad until you see it play out?
$86mill for 4 years of 32 year old vernon is better than $65mill for 5 years of 30 year old bautista???
more proof that a cannon for an arm, and good bat speed based off of one year of great play can get you paid…this is a trickle down from werth…a mediocre at best for most of his career then a very good 3 years makes a man rich….
I’m still surprised that they didnt wait until the all-star break to being extension talks. If last season is a true sign of Jose-bats and that maybe he finally did figure it out then its a great signing. But if he reverts back to his career norms of a mediocre a best player this could be one of the worst signings of the year.
he did the same thing pujols did, and said that he’d only negotiate before the season started.
Bautista is locked up! $%#$ the Haters, this is the going rate ladies n gentleman get use to it. Great deal!
It’s not my money, and Bautista isn’t blocking a prospect, so its not as bad as i thought once i considered all the factors. I don’t expect him to hit 50+ again but a 25-30 h.r avg with 85-100 rbi’s during the life of the deal and i’ll be a happy guy
team options after 3 years plz. if so i’m stoked.
solid deal. no risk. if he turns out not to live up to his contract AA can just ship him off to the halos
This will never get old lol
The 2011/2012 class of FA are looking less and less interesting. After Fielder and Pujols it gets sort of pedestrian especially since most of the better stars have options that are most likely getting picked up. I would be shocked if Agonz makes it to FA.
If you look at Rios’ 2010 season month-by-month, you’ll see he was bad last year too.
Sorry, what does that mean? If you look at his numbers as a whole in the season they’re good, but if you look month to month they’re bad?
In May he had an OPS over 1.100. Rest of the year he never got over .800.
Although it isn’t nearly as much as Wells made may I say another Vernon Wells contract? If things aren’t working out for Bautista maybe the Jays can send him to the Angels.
If it isn’t nearly as bad as Wells then how can it be another Vernon Wells contract? That makes zero sense.
So its a good deal if he’s even half as a good as last year, or an overpay if he plays like any other season in his career.
It’s too bad that his 2010 performance and his 2008 performance are the only possibilities.
Also, he was worth 2.0 WAR in 2009 in ~400 AB’s, or ~$8MM in value, a full $6MM above his salary.
Thats really not what I said though. And I missed the AB’s in ’09, 3 WAR over a full season would be pretty good for the AAV of this contract. This deal can easily come back to bite the Blue Jays, but at the same time it’s a risk you almost have to take.
Yeah, but you’re not mentioning the most likely instance. He obviously made some changes to his swing and approach, and other teams believe in him being for real (Boston was looking to trade for him, for example). Most projections have him regressing slightly down to a 4+WAR player. He only needs to average 2.5WAR over the course of the contract to be worthwhile, and thus, need to regress to slightly above his 2009 numbers.
Can’t argue with that.
So I should be expecting a letter from Rogers tomorrow stating my cable bill is going up?
jk…I hope
yes, but because Rogers is a bunch of greedy jerks, not because of this extension.
seems as unnecessary as the car go extension was. i wouldve settled on a one yr deal and let him play into the season then approach about an extension. didnt they just get rid of a bad contract, why set yourself up for part 2?
Well for starters, because this isn’t even close to being comparable to the Vernon Wells contract.
This is nothing like that CarGo extension. Bautista was in his last year of arbitration. The CarGo extension was pure stupidity. I think this extension is pretty good, depending on what the buyout is for the team option.
they unload wells’ awful contract then enter into another one? obviously wells’ was worse, but this is ridiculous money for a guy who hasnt really proved himself to be worth that kind of money. but Congrats to Jose Bautista though good for him.
If he had proven himself he’d be getting 10 years $300M like Pujols. I like this for the Jays.
i hope you’re exaggerating
I think he’s Jon Heyman.
There is a reason why Boston knocked on Toronto’s door for a possible deal. They also think that Bautista’s monster year was not a fluke. If it wasn’t, then 65/5 is going to be a friggin’ steal! If not, I’m sure the Angels or the White Sox will take it off our hands in three or four years from now. 🙂
Why is everyone so concerned with the money; its not yours. I wish the Jays would spend 400 million, and win a world series; over-pay the entire roster; Its not my cash.
Because when teams do that and it blows up in their face, then they lose the ability to readily address new issues that come up, and fans are left scratching their heads as to why ownership is being so cheap.
Source: The New York Mets and their Disillusioned Fans
goodness christ
this contract could turn out to be a steal if he hits 35-40 , if they dont sign him now and wait till the end of the season and he has a great year you have to compete with the top market teams( boston, yankees) who will give dish out 10 year contracts at 20mil a season. if your looking at building a winner 2 years from now you have to keep a player here and there, with the prospects coming and few veterans your looking at a team who can compete in the AL east maybe as soon as 2012, plus one thing most people are missing here is how good he is in the clubhouse and with all the young talent coming up you need a player like that, it hard to find a player like that ! time will tell if its good or not but i like where the jays are heading
mannn you fans of other teams dont know bautista the way we do. so just keep your hating comments to yourselves. 54 hommers …enuff said
shouldn’t you be at espn.com?
rogers got our backss. ra ra roger thatt?
Congrats to Joey Bats! I miss seeing you in a Pirates’ uniform, but I’m glad that you were finally able to achieve success elsewhere. I will forever have a soft spot for you.
bro we all decided not to go with joey bats–keep it bautista . thanks this goes out to all you jays fans. woooooooo
cool story bro
was that sarcasm? cuz its an effing awsome story.
bro, nah bro, no sarcasm bro. GO JAYS WOOOOOOO
Ewwwww absolustely hate this deal for the Jays. You don’t even really know what Bautista is yet, I would have let him play out the season and then make this kind of offer. This is a massive risk for the Blue Jays, don’t like it at all.
It’s also a risk to let him play the season and establish himself (as if he needs to) as a legit 35-hr/year player. Then if they want to retain him, they have to pay twice the money over more years. It’s a catch-22 situation for the Blue Jays, and ultimately they decided that it’s worth the risk to lock him up now rather than let him repeat and have to pay more next year/lose him to free agency.
I don’t see him being a “legit” 35HR hitter though, that’s the thing. I’d be shocked if he averaged anywhere near 30hr’s over the next 5 years. This is a massive risk that they didn’t have to do. They basically spent the money they saved on Wells on a pretty unproven commodity, I just don’t get it.
if he plays out the season and has another good season 850+ops 30 + hr 110rbi you make this offer, him and his agent laugh at you , and he signs with the nats for 126 million.
This deal doesn’t really make sense for either sides. The jays aren’t competing for the next two years at least, and by then Bautista Could regress a lot. Also, why would Bautista make this deal? If he’s confident that he can be an above average player, he should’ve signed a one to three year contract and then have a chance for another big pay. At 35, he’s not gonna get a big deal from anyone
It’s almost like they did something crazy and negotiated to a compromise.
both sides got an unfavourable deal. Its strange
that’s a tremendous blanket statement, and probably an illogical one at that. I mean I get what your point is, it’s just not a very good one. Someone is going to “win” this deal, the fact that the Jays aren’t competing this year has little to do with it. They locked up their star player for 5 years at a pretty reasonable price based on projected WAR. It might not be optimal for either side, but a deal rarely is, which is why most contracts typically include a negotiation phase beforehand.
no, its possible to be a loss for both. If bautista hits at an above average level for the next two years and then falls to below average for the future, which is not out of the question, it would be better for both sides to agree on a short term-high cost deal, in which the Jays get good production for fair value and bautista can still get a big payday after.
Well if you can see in to the future then you should be the GM.
He either puts up the 12.5 WAR needed to make the deal worthwhile, or he doesn’t. It doesn’t matter when he puts up the wins, as long as he does it over the course of the contract. The whole point of JB wanting a 5 year deal is the security or not having to worry about putting up MVP numbers every year and still getting paid. Anyone who knows anything about MLB contracts will tell you that you’re typically paying for the first few years of production, and then overpaying for the second half of the contract.
Also, I’m going to start ignoring you now, since you just seem to be jumping on every post I make just for the sake of arguing. Have a good life.
the jays have to gamble a bit in hopes of gaining and keeping elite players…they know they can’t get them on the open market…they have to take chance…think, this is 2 years and $111 million less than jayson werth got…if they risk waiting until the end of 2011 when he’s a free agent, and he does have a repeat performance, they’ll have lost him to the highest bidder. if he does regress, he’s still a premier defensive right fielder and a positive influence on the young players (especially the latin ones coming through the system)…even if he hits 20-25 homers instead of 50+…maybe seems crazy to the yanks, but the jays have to take chances like these…
– where do you get 111 million
– the jays didn’t have to wait until the end of the season. No way bautista wouldn’t negotiate midseason.
– he’s not premier defensively at all
– leadership? really? LETS GET DEREK JETER HE’S A LEADER
– its a gamble yes, but overall, the risk is higher than the gain
my mistake…i thought they signed werth to a $176mil contact…it was actually $126 million…so still $61 mil less….
he had 12 outfield assists in 120 games in RF last year…and play a great 3B for close to 50 games….teams didn’t even try to run on him in the 2nd half….
they jays could overstate how much of an impact he had on yunel escobar when the jays traded for him…with hechevaria not far off, to have astong latin influence in the clubhouse is not a bad thing
the risk is not higher than the gain…not for the jays….the red sox made multiple offers to the jays this off season to try and aquire him….if they didn’t sign him, and he had a big year, they’d lose him (probably to the bosox or yanks)
your points are valid, but outfield assists?
i know, but i watched the majority of the jays games last year….i’m no ML scout, but he’s an excellent fielder
i know, but although i’m not a ML scout, i did watch nearly all of the jays games last year…he is an extremely good fielder, rarely makes a mistake, and is always aware of the situation…
but you wouldn’t call derek jeter a good fielder would you?
“No way Bautista wouldnt negotiate during season” Oh so if hes having a great season, he wouldnt want to test free agency at the end of the year so that there is 30 teams bidding on him , and not just 1? Jay’s believe in Bautista , and that is the only reason there locking him up ,it may work out it may not, but there is 0 chance of getting him for 5 years 65 at the end of another good season. 0
I wonder what Jays fans will think five years from now, I think this could be another bad contract like a mini Wells contract. Nothing agains’t Bautista but he only had one good year.
this, in no way, is anywhere near as crippling as the Wells deal. 5 years from now, even if he’s a bust, people will look at it as kind of a bad contract, not a complete abortion, the way the VW contract is.
Not that bad a contract.
This deal has the potential to be really bad. The jays must really have confidence in him, here’s to hoping it pans out but $65 million is a little too much to be handing out for “hope” that it turns out well isn’t it? Regardless, he doesnt have to hit 50 homers to be worth this contract, so the jays arent expecting him to, but wow…
Confidence in a player who hit 54 hr and was worth 7 WAR? Cite your source.
confidence in a player with a career OPS below .800 and below average defence
yeah i was being sarcastic. obviously they have confidence in him or they wouldn’t have signed him longterm.
Source: my own opinion.
Way way WAY too much guaranteed money for a play coming off an abnormally good season, not to mention his batting avg. doesn’t look that good, if he hits less balls and his home run numbers return to semi-human, his stats could look more like .230/.330/.480 not by the end of the contract, just by next year.
It’s really silly to justify/bash a contract just by saying “He could do X…” and “if Y happens…” Any idiot can just say “If he hits fewer homeruns next year then he’s not as valuable to the team” because that’s probably going to be true for most power hitters. The fact of that matter is that he had something like a .233 babip last season, 37 points below his career avg, or in other words, he was unlucky to put up only 7 WAR and slash a mere .260/.370/.617.
actually, his babip with homeruns is .332, which is slightly above mlb average of .321
what is this? babip with homeruns? link to something credible that has ever used that metric please. Look at his Fangraphs sheet and it clearly shows .233 babip vs. a .270 career. Obviously he’s hitting more flyballs, which turn in to outs much more often than LD or GB, but .233 is below league average. Further, I’m fairly sure we don’t include HR’s in to babip, since they’re not dependent on defense anyway, and more of a true talent metric.
I am willing to bet AA is going to back load the contract into the final year, say $25M. That way, in four years when Wells contract is up, they can pass Bautista off to the Angels.
by the sounds of the contract they are talking about it what you would pay a 30 hr player in todays market, if he hit 45 hrs the next 3 years its a great contract, sometimes you have to take a chance, everythings a chance when you sign a long term contract, what happens when the yankees and boston sign these guys for ten year contracts, the guy gets a career ending injury 2 years into the contract or plays below par and your stuck with the contract.
everythings a gamble, sometimes you have to roll the dice and take your chances or lose out