In a column for SI.com, Jon Heyman discusses the new-look Rays, examining the team's chances in a competitive AL East. While one Rays person candidly acknowledges "we've got a lot of holes," the general consensus around baseball is that it would be a mistake to discount the defending division champs. Here are a few other highlights from Heyman:
- Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus has the Mets' second base job locked up "no matter whether they pretend there's still a competition ongoing."
- Jarrod Saltalamacchia seems ready to become a starting catcher in the bigs, says one scout. Even so, the Red Sox would like to add a third backstop, if one were available via trade, to start the year in the minors behind Saltalamacchia and Jason Varitek.
- Heyman thinks Austin Romine may be the best bet for the Yankees' backup catcher opening. However, as we heard yesterday, Gustavo Molina continues to look like the favorite for the roster spot, according to Ben Shpigel of the New York Times. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports agrees, and suggests the role will be important, given potential concerns about Russell Martin.
- The Rangers made attempts to acquire a closer, but never came close to landing one, which resulted in Neftali Feliz keeping the job.
- Heyman adds Jorge Cantu's name to the list of possible fits at third base for the Marlins.
There is a really good chance that Martin completely tanks.
whatever
🙁
I get the feeling that the Rangers never really wanted to move Feliz. If they did, there were a few guys, like Saito or even Bobby Jenks that could have been had on the cheap.
i don’t think people would worry so much about it if they didn’t have the dominant performance of last year’s group in the back of their minds. but even that group was likely to be quite a bit worse this year than it was in 2010
howell
farnsworth
mcgee
russel
ramos
peralta
sonnanstine
it just isn’t as bad a group as people portray. they should be fine
Fonzy is inconsistent. McGee is a rookie. Sonnastine is more of a loogy. Do you see any of Peralta, Ramos, Russell or Howell stepping up to be the dominant closer?
farnsworth has upside, mcgee is the kind of rookie you like to take your chances on, sonnanstine isn’t a lefty (and he’s a long man/spot starter), and i don’t see any of them needing to become dominant closers. that’s very much the point
maddon is smart enough to use them the way they ought to be used, exploiting their strengths and concealing their weaknesses. there isn’t any actual reason a team should need one guy for the whole ninth inning in every save opportunity. platooning for the ninth can work as well as any other inning – the rays may very well walk that talk this season
in short, their risk in the bullpen isn’t that much greater than the average risk of any bullpen given the volatility of relievers year over year
I know Sonn is a righty, I meant to say long man/spot starter. At this point, @ age 30 something, Farns has shown little upside in the AL East. He did have a decent FIP last year and he still throws hard but at age 35 I don’t see much reason to expect him to improve. We’ll see.
With you on that Rays BP.. It is scary and not in a good Way. Sonanstine has managed to put 1 good year together, Fahrnsworth is scary and not in a good way and most of the rest are discards from the very bottom of the heap and not like the batch they found useful last season they had success with, this is truly the bottom of the discard pile this year in the rays ‘pen.
j.p. howell has averaged a FIP of 3.5 over his past two seasons (08 and 09) with all of his peripherals trending upwards. jesse crain evan meek darren o’day and jonathan papelbon were all in that territory last year. he’s capable of shutting down lefties and righties alike
kyle farnsworth has averaged a FIP of just over 3 in the past season & a half. that’s scott downs and jonathan broxton last year. most of farnsworth’s struggles historically have come against left-handers. he’s very solid against righties and that’s how maddon will use him
jake mcgee is a top 100 prospect in all of baseball — top 50 in some circles — with great stuff from the left side and a terrific track record
joel peralta is a regression candidate coming off a 3 FIP year last year. but his success in 2010 was in part a function of a changed approach with his curve and splitter, which could cap that regression. even if that’s not the case, his career FIP against righties is only 3.5. that’s useful
adam russel is a slightly above average, useful righty reliever who has proven he can pitch effective relief in the bigs — and not just in san diego
cesar ramos is a replacement level lefty
andy sonnanstine is a sixth starter with 3-win upside who can provide quality long relief
in other words, everything you just said is wrong. all of these pitchers will spend most of their season in a serious pitchers’ park deployed by a manager literate in platoon splits who can manage a bullpen effectively
this bullpen is not elite, but it is nowhere near as bad as people love to suggest. had they not lost the group from last year, no one would really fret about it
With the Rays relievers.. Sonanstine has never really been effective and Yes.. Howell was before he tore up his shoulder, but he has not pitched in over a full season, so maybe had best see if he has anything left before singing his praises.
Farnsoworth has had 2 decent seasons in his entire career, 2010 and you have to go back a fuul decade to find his other one. Hard to count on him for anything and most expect him to close..
Peralta. 35YO that had a breakout season last year for whatever reason last year for the Nationals, but one has to see it again.
Jake Mcgee. This is the one true possible gem on this list, other than maybe Russell.
I respect Madden, and it seems you have sort of a mancrush on him, but as good as he is at implementing statistics and matching up his bullpen with the opponents lineup he still has to have the talent to implement his strategy.
Howell- Had great 2008 & 2009 seasons. However, he missed all of 2010 and has yet to pitch an inning in ST this year. He’s NOT a power pitcher and isn’t going to overpower anyone (his FB tops out at 86 mph). He’s all about control and getting his Curve and Change over. Not pitching for over a year can mess with ones mechanics and feel. Not sure what anyone can intelligently expect from him. He’s not even expected to return until mid May.
Farnsworth- Has the stuff but struggles to get it together consistently. He’s been good over the last two year but that was in the NL and AL Central. Most great bullpens have power arms and he still can bring it at 95 mph. Time will tell but he has less than a stellar track record.
MCGee- Great prospect but can you bank on him for any success? He’s a wild card and one of the criticizms of the Rays bullpen is based off of a lack of mlb proven arms. Thus he does nothing to bullster the faith of the pen.
Peralts- Had an incredibly good 2010 as you said. As you also mentioned he’s do for some regression. His .200 BaBIP against and his 85% LOB rate despite not being a hard thrower (avg FB @ 91 mph) and his extremely low GB % of 26%. He does manage to KO at a relatively high rate but I honestly can’t seem him being what he was in 2010. He can still be good I just don’t see him being THAT dominant.
Russell-Not sure what you’re basing your analysis on for Russell. He IS a big kid with the
stuff to be a dominant arm out then pen as he throws 95 mph, can induce GB at a 49% rate and his control was decent last year. But he’s only pitched 27 innings over the last two years so it’s hard to really figure out what kind of big league pitcher he will be.
Ramos-Like you said he’s a average mlb loogy.
Sonnanstine- It’s interesting what you choose to give credit for and what you like to disregard. Yes, Sonnanastine was a 3 WAR pitcher before but that was way back in 2008. Since then he has been a 0 WAR player with a FIP over 5.00. Meaning that he is nothing more than a fringe mlb pitcher. He’s a soft-tossing finesse pitcher with a below avg FB that relies on putting his stuff in the right spots. He’s usefull in that he can eat up garbage time innings. He’s not particularly good vs lefties or righties but he’s good for last minute spots or to jump on a grenade to spare the rest of the pen.
So maybe it’s not all doom and gloom but other than hoping for McGee tobe something great I see no reason for optimism from the pen.
i concluded my comment with “this bullpen is not elite, but it is nowhere near as bad as people love to suggest”. you rebutted with “maybe it’s not all doom and gloom but I see no reason for optimism from the pen”
in other words, you agree – but you still want to phrase things negatively. your prerogative i guess, but not supportable by data. most of your breakdown of the pitchers repeats the things i said. i’ll touch on what you added:
first, i have said that maddon “is smart enough to manage platoon splits and a bullpen effectively”, and this implies a mancrush to you? setting the bar awfully low, chief. now if he could optimize a lineup…
howell – he wasn’t a power pitcher when he was getting lefties and righties out to the tune of a 3.5 FIP either, so that’s hardly worth mentioning. in fact, despite his softly-thrown stuff, he’s had four plus pitches during his past two years. this is the difference between reporting data objectively and reporting it selectively to suit a purpose
farnsworth – he’s not as inconsistent as you think he is. his last bad year was three years ago in 2008 in new york. that year, he still posted an FIP of 4.15 against righties. and that was while suffering a 16% HR/FB rate and a .375 BABIP against them. his K/BB against righties that year was 6.2 and his xFIP was 3.37. did that predict anything?
since that time, his overall FIP was been just a touch over 3. in 2009 against righties it was 3.05 despite a .365 BABIP. when that BABIP finally normalized to under .300 in 2010, his FIP was just over 2 against righties
so yes, playing outside of the AL east helps everyone – but so does playing in tropicana. farnsworth’s volatility comes from facing lefties. used predominantly against righties, he is likely to do well. i’d bet my hat maddon is aware of this
peralta – i mentioned the regression before you did. “not as good as 2010” doesn’t mean bad, because he was very good in 2010. again, 2010 wasn’t a totally random anomaly either. he made changes to his approach. does that mean he’ll strand 80% and enjoy a .200 BABIP. i seriously doubt it. but it could mean that he pitches better than he has in previous years
russel – you like russel more than i do apparently, sooo
sonnanstine – “it’s interesting what you choose to give credit for an what you like to disregard”. honestly, you are being dishonest. saying he has “3 WAR UPSIDE” does not mean “I PREDICT HE WILL POST 3 WAR”. it means he has proven that peak ability in the majors. within the last 3 years, no less
“ince then he has been a 0 WAR player with a FIP over 5.00. Meaning that he is nothing more than a fringe mlb pitcher”
o rly? by that logic, kyle farnsworth was “a fringe mlb pitcher” in 2009. but then he returned to form. as many, many pitchers have. especially young ones. and sonnanstine has 7 years of youth on farnsworth
having said that, he’s a sixth starter. what do you want? you know ZiPS projects Nova’s ERA well above 5 this year right? but you’re not down on Nova and neither am i. back-end pitchers are useful and important, even if they’re not going to dominate
having said that, sonnanstine’s peripheral numbers are headed in the right direction. his problem the last two (sub-100 inning sample) years has been walking guys and giving up homeruns. very correctable issues
the guy can handle the long relief job fine, and he’s got more upside than most men in that role
again, if this bullpen were not following the mass exodus of a bunch of career-year relievers from tampa, there wouldn’t be half the fuss. these guys are fine
I’m projecting a mediocre 3.81 ERA and 28 saves for Feliz. By May the rotation will be C.J. Wilson, Colby Lewis, Dave Bush, Matt Harrison and Brett Tomko.
The Rangers go 78-84. Feliz spends a meaningless September stretching out and makes two late season starts. He does OK in one but gets hit hard in the other, opening the door for this whole stupid debate to continue next off-season. Washington will decree that two starts are a big enough sample size to prove that Feliz has no future in the rotation and names him permanent closer. He orders all of the franchise’s statistical analysis and baseball reference books burned. And the Rangers sink back into the dark ages.
C.J. Wilson leaves in the off-season to sign with the Angels and the Rangers use the money saved to ink John Rhadigan to a 20-year extension.
Anybody who hates the Rangers success that much and is that delusional must really be Drayton McLane. Hi, Uncle Drayton! Sell the Astros soon!
Or Josh Lewin. Or Chuck Greenberg. Or maybe Michael Young.
As a Rangers fan, I can only feel empathy for A’s fans getting excited about McCarthy and Red Sox fans getting excited about Salty. Lots of talent in those brittle bodies.
i don’t see the marlins trying for cantu again. they shipped him off because of his poor defense and diminishing offense.