The Orioles kick off our series taking a look at players who will be arbitration eligible for 2012.
- First time: Jo-Jo Reyes, Brad Bergesen, Robert Andino, Alfredo Simon
- Second time: Adam Jones, Felix Pie, Jim Johnson
- Third time: Jeremy Guthrie
- Fourth time: Luke Scott, Jeremy Accardo
Projected potential Super Twos such as Bergesen and Simon may not end up with enough service time to be arbitration eligible. If the projected 2.145 cutoff holds up, Bergesen will be arbitration eligible and Simon will not.
Scott had shoulder surgery in July and is a likely non-tender. Pie is possible given his terrible offensive season, as are potential first-timers Eyre, Reyes, and Bergesen. Accardo is another non-tender candidate.
The key cases for the Orioles are Jones, Guthrie, and Johnson. Jones should exceed $6MM. Guthrie is in lightly charted waters as a third-time starting pitcher, and the cases of 2012 peers like John Danks, Matt Garza, and Joe Saunders will be relevant here. $9-10MM is possible. Johnson will be coming off a solid season, but still figures to come in under $2MM.
Jones, Guthrie, and Johnson will all be resigned. Johnson is being targeted for a slot in the rotation so he will end up being a very cheap SP.
Pie is the only one that might be a possible intriguing player. I know his stats look awful, but the way he’s been used has been extremely erratic. He’s basically been the 3rd-man-out in a 3-way platoon for LF. So he’s been getting a start 2-3 times per month, (if that) and lots of late-game subs in laughers or pinch-run appearances. So I don’t know what his stats really say about him, if you get 2-3 ABs every couple weeks or so. Then again, he’s been making just enough bad outs or mental lapses in games that he hasn’t inspired confidence in the manager to write his name in the lineup either.
Come to think of it, Johnson might not even have a spot. Think about it: Guthrie, Hunter, Matusz, Britton, Arrieta. Regardless, bring back Johnson. We need at least one reliable reliever next year.
And if I see Pie on the Orioles next year, I’ll find a new team. There is no reason for him to be in the majors while Matt Angle is sitting in Norfolk and showing that he at least has speed and isn’t prone to failing like Felix is.
That’s counting on a lot of change to just slot Matusz into the big league rotation right not. He doesn’t look like he has a clue yet.
Good Call
After this season I don’t think you can automatically slot any of the young pitchers into the ML rotation.
This system is still building up pitching depth. Having too many starting pitchers on paper isn’t a bad problem to have. If they have an extra starting arm or two, and next year is a normal ML season, your August rotation will be different than your Opening Day one by at least a couple slots.
That said, I’d LOVE to have so much depth that Jim Johnson needs to go into the pen.
I feel bad for Luke Scott. He had a ton of potential to become a second-tier 30 HR power threat. Could have made a nice $7MM a year living with his production, but now he’s gonna be granted his free agency and be forced to take a $1-2MM come back year salary and re-establish his worth. I liked him. Oh well.
As for the others: Adam Jones is in line for a Markakis-type extension and the rest should just be thankful to have jobs next season.
He’s a case study in why players should sometimes consider extending as early as possible (Think: J.J. Hardy).
Since he’s a late-bloomer anyways, and technically age-wise in his prime now, but coming off an injury and entering free agency at a bad time, he may never get that big payday that ballplayers target. They start out at early ages, sometimes opting out of a college education, to one day maybe get a big payday around age 28-30. That’s 10 years of committment of their life towards that goal, and in an instant, sometimes just due to bad dumb luck, it can all go poof. Many of us fans see the top tier guys getting huge megadeals, but this kind of story is what the majority of baseball contracts is all about: Average to solid ballplayers trying to cash in on the longterm commitment that they started when they were age 18 or 21.
I feel bad for Luke too. I hope he signs a one year cheap incentive-laden contract, builds up his value, has a good year, and finally gets a good payday.
Luke may not get that big payday he was hoping for, but he has made over 14 million in his career. Sure, a lot of that has gone toward taxes, but even still he probably made at least 5 to 6 million after tax for his career.
The guys I feel sorry for are the ones who have a good year or two and then fade before they get to arbitration.
Agreed.
Thanks for adding up the previous salaries. Makes me take back that tear I shed for Luke. Jk. Ha. You’re right. It must suck if you spend your young adult life shooting for this goal, and then missing out, right about when it is about to start cashing in (before the 3 yrs of service really kicks in arb).
He’s a case study in why players should sometimes consider extending as early as possible (Think: J.J. Hardy).
Since he’s a late-bloomer anyways, and technically age-wise in his prime now, but coming off an injury and entering free agency at a bad time, he may never get that big payday that ballplayers target. They start out at early ages, sometimes opting out of a college education, to one day maybe get a big payday around age 28-30. That’s 10 years of committment of their life towards that goal, and in an instant, sometimes just due to bad dumb luck, it can all go poof. Many of us fans see the top tier guys getting huge megadeals, but this kind of story is what the majority of baseball contracts is all about: Average to solid ballplayers trying to cash in on the longterm commitment that they started when they were age 18 or 21.
I feel bad for Luke too. I hope he signs a one year cheap incentive-laden contract, builds up his value, has a good year, and finally gets a good payday.
How does Guthrie get to 9-10M??? None of the 3 players mentioned as precedent clear $6M
I generally agree, but I can’t balme the fans for wanting Pie out, regardless of the circumstances of this season. he has a -1.9 WAR this season – only Adam Dunn is worse, but he has had more than twice as much playing time. in fact, Pie has the 4th worst UZR/150 in LF of any player in the league with more than 50 innings played… inconsistent playing time can only explain so much.