The Braves are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: None
- Second time: Jair Jurrjens, Martin Prado, Eric O'Flaherty
- Third time: Michael Bourn, Peter Moylan
Moylan had back surgery in May and returned in September, he'll have a low innings total for 2011. That should hold his salary at $2MM, and I think the Braves will retain him assuming they consider him healthy.
We've got Bourn down for a raise of nearly $3MM, up to $7.2MM. Jurrjens projects for a fairly modest raise to $5.1MM. He's tallied fewer than 300 innings over the last two seasons, and that hurts his arbitration earnings. Prado is looking at about $4.4MM and O'Flaherty could get $2.4MM.
Our total for the Braves' five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM. Assuming Eric Hinske's option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players. That's only about $3MM below this year's Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
braves might try to trade at least one pitcher making more than the minimum. they might eat part of lowe’s salary to save $6 mil or so, or they might trade jurrjens.
Jurrjens is gone. He can get you best return other than Hanson and they arent reading him. They would trade Lowe too If someone would pick up half of salary
They should have dumped him earlier in the year when his stock was sky high
Oh I certainly agree, but I believe they can still get a decent return out of him. They desperately need some higher level position prospects. They have Salcedo, Bethancourt, and Simmons but they are all in A ball.
Wishful thinking on the Lowe idea, I think. He’s pitching on par with the likes of a Livan Hernandez, who’s only making $1MM. You’d have to see a fleecing of some GM who values “experience” over anything else to extract any value at all out of him.
Ed Wade still has a job in Houston, Wren could give him another call. And if that doesn’t work he could always call Tony Reagins out in LA. He doesn’t mind taking in high priced veteran contracts that he shouldn’t, cough Vernon Wells.
exceeded 100 mil twice this decade? we are only 2 years into the decade
Bad wording on my part, thanks.
Any rumblings about an extension in the works for Bourn?
Scott Boras client.
Ouch. At least you guys didn’t give up too much for him.
The Braves have 3 Million to play with when including all minimum players and arbitration players? They only have one spot that has to be filled(SS) Agony made 2.5 million this year, and would probably take 2-3 million for next year before Pastornicky is ready to take over full time.
If the Braves want any of their young players to pitch for them next year(in the rotation) or to make any type of FA/trade splash(LF?) then they have to trade a SP or 2. It will be interesting to see what Frank Wren will end up doing. If he has faith that this (fairly) young team will continue to improve we might see him stand pat. If he doesn’t, then we might see a blockbuster trade happen.
Very exciting time to be a Braves fan.
Does this account for Kawikame and McClouth coming off the books?
McLouth: $1.25m buyout.
McCann: $2m auto-raise (via contract)
Uggla: $4m auto-raise (via contract)
Bourn: new numbers via arbitration (we’ll use the MLBTR number above)
So you can think of it this way:
1. Bourn’s 2012 will be ~equal to McLouth’s 2011 contract ($7.2m arb vs. $7m).
2. Kawakami’s 2011 contract ($7.33m) will be matched by the raises of
Uggla, McCann, and the buyout of Nate ($4m+$2m+$1.25m= $7.25).
I.e., there is no “savings” – the bonus is getting Bourn vs. McLouth. It’ll come out almost to the dollar with those guys.
But then there’s Jurrjens: arb raise from $3.25 to maybe $5.1m as
suggested above. Now we’re $1.85m higher. Prado? $4.4m mean he’s up by
$1.4. EOF nets a $1.5m increase. The MLBTR estimate on Moylan is no increase. So the arb numbers sum to a $4.75m increase, not including Bourn, who I handled above.
There is some money to saved elsewhere… conditionally:
Linebrink will undoubtedly become a Free Agent, but the White Sox
handled much of his freight anyway. Only saves $2m there. Sherrill was
on a $1.2m deal. Alex Gonzalez was getting $2.5m, but the Braves will
need a shortstop. Even if he were to re-sign, it could actually be for
more. Moylan: $2m in 2011. Proctor: he was almost free ($185K,
somehow). So that’s around $5.9m, albeit with a few slots to fill.
I gotta believe Hinske comes back ($1.5m club option; up $150K). Lots
of min salary guys will get token auto-boosts (call it $600K total).
Diaz is under contract for 2012 at $2m… I think the Pirates are
covering some of that (did not see the number; guessing $1m). Jack
Wilson might be a possible alternative should AGonz not re-sign.
So in summary: I have it as $5.9m – $1m (Diaz) – $600K (control group) –
$150K (Hinske) – $4.75m (arb cases). That’s $600K higher than last
year, and gives the Braves no shortstop, no utility infielder, and
requires new kids in the bullpen fill roles *IF* the main part of the
roster stays intact.
I would like to see ’em trade some arms for a legit LF with pop and have Prado take on everyday utility role on the infield.
will the bravos break out of this slump?
At least they aren’t the only potential playoff team imploding to some degree. Misery loves company.
Yeah the red sox situation is worse considering their big money signings and all the expectations
Jurrjens = $5.1MM
Prado = $4.4MM
O’Flaherty = $2.4MM
Moylan = $2.0MM
Bourn = $7.1MM
I think you are low on Jurrjens, Prado and Moylan. Plus:
“Our total for the Braves’ five arbitration eligible players is $21.1MM. Assuming Eric Hinske’s option is picked up, the Braves would have about $88MM in commitments before accounting for minimum salary players. That’s only about $3MM below this year’s Opening Day payroll of $91MM, though they have exceeded $100MM twice in the last decade.”
You’re forgetting 2 million+ in incentives that Brian McCann has reached. His salary will be close to 11 million for 2012. Also, Alex Gonzalez will almost surely be brought back for a similar salary.
I think it’s more like 97 million in guarantees. They will have to trade either Lowe or Jurrjens.
Moylan will be non-tendered. They got Gearrin.
Considering how hard he got rocked in his last few appearances, hard to see the Braves guaranteeing Gearrin an Opening Day spot, especially once you consider he didn’t even get called up once the rosters expanded. His numbers at AAA were great, but Moylan’s been solid for a few years now. I think they’ll pay Moylan just to make sure they have at least one sinkerballer, but if Gearrin can be consistent in 2012, they’ll let Moylan walk once he’s a FA.
Time to trade JJ, it was fun. We’ve got too much pitching ready to go and they all project to be 3rd starters or better.
Seems to me they’d be selling low on Jurrjens, esp considering he’ll be ending the year injured. Hard to imagine any team giving up their upper tier prospects at this point. Yeah, we need to clear some space and salary, but is it really worth making a bad trade?
Seems like not much to spend with McClouth and Kawakami coming off the books
The Braves need to let Chipper go or make him go! He is not going to play more than 100 games! His selfishness is just killing the team. They can save 5 millions with lowe eating 10 millions and probably like 12 -15 millions with Chipper. Try to get Shields from Tampa to substitute Lowe with one pretty good prospect or young pitcher. A Hudson, Shields, Hanson, Beachy, JJ rotation sounds good. Teheran, Minor and Delgado need to get pulish in AAA unless one of them is trade. Get a good hitting outfield a move Prado to third base. Thats just my opinion!
Only seven 3B in all of baseball played more innings than Chipper Jones last year. Despite all that time on the field, he still committed fewer errors than anyone at the hot corner. He ranked from 2nd-5th in basically every offensive category among 3B. You could not be more inaccurate. The only real gripe at this point is his range, which is a legitimate complaint for a third baseman. However, considering how productive he still is, and the fact that it’s probably going to be his last year next season, I’ll let that one thing slide. Oh, yea and I almost forgot. He’s the second greatest Brave to ever step foot on the diamond. Real Braves fans, the ones that take pride in following this team, respect that.
Be honest. You didn’t actually follow the team this season. I’m sure you watched games from time to time, but Braves fans that actually pay attention to the team (and the players on it) know better. Please quit re-hashing the same boring “get rid of Chipper” crap. It contributes nothing and just makes the fanbase look ignorant.
Good article overall. I don’t think they’ll keep Moylan around, though. Not if they truly only have about $3 mill otherwise. Gearrin is pretty similar to Moylan, even if he isn’t as proven. Either way, they have enough quality arms to fill that ‘pen. Moylan isn’t necessary enough, I don’t think.
Moylan will get non-tendered giving them around 6 million to spend this offseason. Need a starting SS, a backup middle infielder, and a good pinch hitter
Jurrjens will essentially be traded for a corner outfielder. Prado will become super-utility player (3B, LF, 2B, 1B). Gonzo or Wilson will be signed as a stopgap for Pastornicky.
Don’t need anyone outside the organization for our bullpen.Rotation will be: Hudson, Hanson, Beachy, Minor and our #5 will be one of Lowe/Medlen/Delgado. Bench will be Hinske, Diaz, Prado, Ross and we’ll still need a backup SS.
We don’t need bullpen addressed. We have good young arms that can complete our pen + with Medlen back…O’Ventbrel, Varvaro, Medlen, Martinez I think is enough.