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By Tim Dierkes | at
Email a copy of 'Option Predictions: Starting Pitchers' to a friend
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East Coast Bias
Carp’s option being declined would work out very well…
…for us.
daveineg
Carpenter’s showed significant regression since his outstanding 09 season. It’s hard to see him reversing that at age 37. Maybe 5 years ago it was justifiable paying $14 million to a guy with an ERA around 4. But not now.
East Coast Bias
But… but… look at who our alternative is:
AJ Burnett
daveineg
I honestly don’t see Carpenter as an upgrade over Burnett. Moving from NL to AL won’t help his numbers. Opponents are hitting .275 against Carpenter this year and that includes pitchers.
Jeffy25
He easily is, he has improved in 2011 vs 2010. Look at his perhips. I’m on my phone, but I know his fwar, fip, xfip, have all improved. He has a worse babip, despite not pitching any worse (gb and ld %). And his velocity is up. Carpenter has improved, not declined. And he is easily worth more than the 14 million net
Wayne
yeah…look at the yankees options for the playoffs…..i see alot of cars driving off the verrazano when the postseason starts
notsureifsrs
“Carpenter’s showed significant regression since his outstanding 09 season.”
2009 – 3.34 xFIP, 3.43 SIERA, 19.2 K%, 5.1 BB%, 0.33 HR/9, .269 BABIP
2011 – 3.37 xFIP, 3.43 SIERA, 18.8 K%, 5.7 BB%, 0.64 HR/9, .324 BABIP
Ferrariman
watching his games, he’s actually throwing harder on his fastball and his curveball still has the same bite it always has. I honestly couldn’t figure it out until i realized he had Theriot, Berkman, Schumaker playing behind him. Lots of free base hits that should be outs there..
notsureifsrs
few more home runs this year too, to be fair. but i don’t see anything that suggests his skills are fading
Jeffy25
Wainwrights options have already been exercised according to a team press release last month
buddaley
Is there a reason you did not speculate on James Shields? The Rays have an option to keep him at $7 million with a $2 million buyout.
martinfv2
I have to work up another post for guys like Shields, Carmona, Colby Lewis, who would be arb eligible if their options were declined.
Wayne
dude, i would not exersize any option for carmona….give my 3 year old son the 7 mill.he can be like carmona and get rocked in the first inning
rayking
I was sure that Carp’s option would be exercised. But then we acquired EJax… perhaps the money we would have spent on Carp we could use on EJax instead?
I suppose it would depend on how much Jackson wants, both in years and $$$, but he’s performed well, aside from an outing against the Brewers where TLR used him as the sacrificial lamb to save the pen.
Smurf
That’s also what I assumed when Jackson was acquired…
That Carp’s money would go to a younger pitcher who is pitching better than Carp himself.
Loyalty aside, it looks like the smart choice on paper.
nictonjr
Giving Jackson 4 year, or more, $11+ mil a year, contract looks like a better choice? If they sign Jackson the Cards can’t risk Carpenter accepting arbitration. They’d let him walk away for nothing…
Wayne
but its a wise move seeing as how jackson is way younger and still hasen’t hit his potential yet…..give jax a couple years with duncan…..i see him being a very nasty pitcher…..it was a good deal for st.louis to get rid of rasmus plus get jax and bullpen help….great deal for them…
Jeffy25
Jackson is not pitching better than carp
Smurf
Numbers would say that Jackson is indeed pitching better than Carp this year. Except for the egg he laid in Milwaukee, he’s been quite good since coming to the NL.
Even if they do sign Jackson for $12m/year…a savings of $2m would help the Cardinals a lot. Especially if they re-sign Pujols for A-Rod money. They are going to need every last nickle!
Wasn’t saying I agree with dumping Carp, and re-signing Jackson. Just that I could see the thinking in that scenario.
notsureifsrs
which “numbers” would say that? ERA? wins? those fortunate cookie luckies?
Phillies_Aces35
I think that The Phillies decline Oswalt’s option and he comes back at a discounted salary (somewhere between $6million + Incentives-$9million). There’s the issue of money but there’s a good chance they’re going over the luxury tax anyway with Rollins, Hamels, and Madson. The Phillies have come out recently and said that they will go over the luxury tax.
Sign Oswalt, move Blanton to the bullpen or eat his contract, and go into the season with Oswalt and Worley at the back end of the rotation. Then, the next season they could just replaced Oswalt with Trevor May.
Roy said he wants to play next year (or is strongly considering it) on Daily News Live.
Ryan
I know he just turned 34, but since 2004, Oz has had one year of less than 180 innings pitched, and this is the year. He has been a workhorse over his career, and if healthy, is a bargain even at a net $14M in salary. Considering that Halladay is making $20M, and Lee makes even more, and both are the same age, I’m just not seeing how $14M in 2012 is such a gamble that the Phillies should run, not walk, away from that on a one-year basis. Now, the option is mutual, so if Oz declines, all bets are off.
Bottom line, I would rather give Roy Oswalt $16M for one year, over making Ryan Madson a tremendous prioritiy to sign to the multi-year deal he and Boras will be looking for. Madson should be elsewhere next year, Rube just got done coughing up $36M over the past three years to watch Brad Lidge blow World Series games, and tour our farm system. I hope he does not have the stomach to gamble more big money on a bullpen guy.