WEDNESDAY: Maybin told Brock yesterday, "They've given me a great opportunity. When the season ends, we can discuss that more."
TUESDAY: The Padres and Cameron Maybin appear to have mutual interest in an extension, Yahoo's Tim Brown reports (Twitter link). Maybin, 24, is enjoying a breakout season with the Padres and now seems to be an offseason extension candidate. MLB.com's Corey Brock hears that some discussions about a possible deal have taken place, though no agreement is remotely close at the moment (Twitter link).
Maybin debuted as a 20-year-old with the 2007 Tigers, but frequent demotions to the minor leagues prevented him from picking up much service time. After this season, Maybin will have two years and 73 days of service time, which puts him on track for arbitration eligibility after the 2012 season and free agency after the 2015 season.
Maybin has been one of San Diego's most productive players since the Padres acquired Maybin from Florida for Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb last November. He has a .275/.332/.400 line in 476 plate appearances and UZR suggests he has been an asset on defense in spacious Petco Park.
Though Padres fans would no doubt like to see GM Jed Hoyer lock Maybin up to a team-friendly deal similar to the one Jose Tabata signed with the Pirates last month, the two outfielders aren't perfect comparables for one another. Tabata, who signed a six-year, $15MM deal, is a year behind Maybin in MLB service. Tabata will earn $11.5MM for his three arbitration years, which could be a point of reference for Maybin and the Padres. Unfortunately for Maybin, arbitration panels would penalize him for his spotty track record and modest career stats without rewarding him for his outfield defense.
Hoyer has signed one Padre to a multi-year deal since becoming GM, as our Transaction Tracker shows. He signed Jason Bartlett to a two-year, $11MM extension last offseason.
also the rangers
Adrian Gonzalez was given up to the Padres by the Rangers. So I laugh at them too.
Considering the Rangers had Teixeira at 1b, there was a good reason Adrian wasn’t getting that extended look that he deserved. Recall them playing Gonzo a little in RF, but quickly abandoned the idea. If there is a team that has had more impressive collection of players at any one position then the Rangers at 1b during this past decade or so, I’d be terribly surprised:
I intentionally left off Chris Davis, even though he had his moments, but feel like someone is getting forgotten as well. The first 3 or 4 years after giving up Hefner, I’d say that move was on par with the Padres getting Adrian, from the Rangers lost point of view. Hafner’s OPS+ in his first three full seasons with Cleveland (162, 168, 181) beats out any three years the Pads got from Adrian with ease.
So while it will always be fun to reflect on that trade, I think it’s worth pointing out how many good/great 1b have come through that system in years past. The fact that the Rangers weren’t the first team to give up on Adrian (Hello Marlins, Again!) takes away some of the sting. It wasn’t their 1-1 pick & 3m bonus that blossomed elsewhere. They only gave up 2 mo’s worth of a closer for the privilege.
Regarding that original deal, the part that reall surprised me at the the time was the Rangers trading Chris Young to replace him with Adam Eaton despite getting four fewer years of service time, with Young coming off the better season.
A real fun excercise is to compare what Adrian did against AAA pitching versus Rizzo at the same age.
What about the Rangers?
You’re thinking of the Tigers who gave him up for Miguel Cabrera. I would take Cabrera any day of the week and twice on Sunday over Maybin.
only based on talent, skill and performance.
The Marlins would disagree. The would rather have Edward Mujica and Ryan Webb…
While the Marlins may have helped their bullpen, the Padres will end up getting far more value out of the deal than the Marlins.
No, I am thinking of the Rangers giving up on AGON too soon, just like the Marlins did with Maybin. Gotta give guys at least 2 full seasons before thinking about casting off an elite prospect.
Why for the Padres? Check out Maybin’s road numbers. He’s a developing star.
Hudson also signed a multi-year deal last off season. FWIW
Locking Maybin up would be a huge PR move as well off the field not to mention a great idea in terms of on the field play. With everybody down on the Padres because they didn’t want to pay over half of their payroll to one player, Gonzalez, extending Maybin and possibly Latos would be a great step in the right direction.
Agree completely. Locking up Latos & Maybin should be their highest off-season priorities. Maybin, with his ripe age, might be the besteveryday player fit they’ve had since Petco park opened. Latos is one I’d like to see them gamble on now versus waiting another year. I’d give both 5-year deals with 2 option years. For Latos, that likely means close to a 30m committment. It wouldn’t be the end all if it was a 4-year deal with 2 options, and the cost would be considerably less (around 18m), but some players are worth bigger gambles. Latos I think is one of them, and the same with Maybin. As far as Maybin getting something on par with what Tabata got, I’d be beside myself if they had options for his first three free agent years for 6.5m, 7.5m & 8.5m. Heck, I’d be thrilled if those annual figures were 1.5m higher.
Take Tabata’s deal, the one the Dbacks gave Chris Young and the one Sizemore got, put them all in a blender and you’ve got the makings of an extension for Maybin. Talk about the perfect time too. Still a year from making good money in arbitration, fresh warm fuzzies from getting the opportunity from San Diego he never got from Florida.
Imagine if Latos has a breakout year in 2012 like Kershaw had this year. Or better put, think of the differences in what an extension for Kershaw would look like pre-2011 versus now.
That said, it’d be much easier for Hoyer/Moorad to give Maybin & Latos 35-40m combined versus 55m, or more. Yeah 15-20m for an extra year of each could be a bargain down the road, but the risk is magnified in the process. Really looking forward to see what extensions are given out. With Stauffer only two years from free agency, a 3+1 deal for him at around 15m guaranteed I think would be wise as well. He’s struggled a bit of late, probably a bit tired, but he’s someone I’d look to keep around longer then his current status would dictate.
Blanks is on the same free agent schedule as Maybin/Latos. I really like the idea of giving him a reasonable deal locking up his arb years (probably around 10m) and getting some FA option years tacked on for good measure. He bombs in 2012 and the deal won’t be a big burden, but if the opposite happens (say 25+ hr’s) and it’d be a great signing. Low risk / high reward. His earning power is pretty dang low, few players have two full seasons of service time with as few atbats as Blanks will have at year end, and now is an oportune time to sign him to a ridiculously cheap contract. The upside in doing that versus signing a FA for a comparable figure (Bartlett/Hudson) is a pretty big contrast.
Kershaw’s breakout year was last year.
He’s been great all three of his full seasons, no question about that. The main point was locking him up as he gets closer to free agency is going to be more expensive then had they done it the year prior. The same will be true next off-season if his 2012 is on par with what he’s done so far and the Dodgers still haven’t inked him long-term. There is a big difference in guaranteed money in what Kershaw would have been in line for after 2010 versus now. I would imagine the consequences in that instance means no longer are the Dodgers able to get his first free agent year or two as options, but instead having to guarantee those years, and likely at higher salaries. It’s what happens when great players continue to build on their resume’s. Their costs go up.
Or use Lincecum as an example. Why the Giants waited to give him an extension after he had already won TWO Cy Young’s is an instance where waiting to sign him hurt the club in the long run. Had they decided to lock him up after his debut season, the total amount to get his pre-FA years would like likely rival what he’ll get in 2012 or 2013 alone.
If I was a Dodger fan I’d be pretty pissed at the way guys like Kershaw, Kemp & Ethier weren’t locked up on deals that could have provided a ton of value to the club, and kept them away from free agency longer. How they can justify giving the deals they have to Uribe, Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, Juan Pierre and Jason Schmidt before them, but not taken care of their own players, guys actually on the right side of their prime is beyond me. It’s not too late for Kershaw, but even the most loyal of Dodger fans I imagine wished he would have already been signed.
I like what your saying, except for the Blanks extension. Even though Blanks is very athletic for his size and he does have “Petco power”, I just don’t see him fitting in the locg term plans for the Padres. You said it yourself, “Maybin may be the best everyday player fit the Padres have had since Petco opened”, and I am of the belief that for the Padres to be successful they need 3 players with Maybins tools patrolling the spacious outfield at Petco. My dream outfield of Maybin, Bourjos and Gardner ( I know it won’t happen ) would be great to watch flying aroung the outfield and around the bases. Hoyer has also stated that he wants to find players that fit Petco and for someone looking from the outside in, I just don’t see Blanks fitting the mold. If they keep him, I hope I’m wrong, but it sure would be nice to get back an athletic young outfilder with potential for this mountian of a man, who also has a lot of upside left.
I agree with you on Gardner. I woulde prefer Blanks, Maybin, and Gardner. With Maybin and Gardner out there, Blanks can take a nap and just hit.
After Blanks last homerun he was crossing home plate where he came face to face with Harang. Both guys are 6’6″ but I’ll be damned if Harang didn’t look 25-30 lbs heavier then Blanks. I’m really impressed that Blanks is in better shape now, more trim, then he was when he debuted in 2009. He clearly made conditioning a high priority during his recovery from TJ. To me that demonstrates a guys will power to thrive.
So I’m one of those skeptical ones that don’t buy into him not cutting it as a LF at Petco. A Blanks/Maybin/Venable outfield, IMO, is plenty athletic enough for this park.Personally I can’t watch Blanks get down the line as quickly as he can, often catching myself thinking “damn, that doesn’t seem possible” while at the same time thinking he’s not up to being our LF due to a lack of athleticism or speed. IMO, he has the potential to be the optimal LF for us (& excellent insurance for Rizzo).
Blanks defensive upside is better, IMO, then the other big thumpers we’ve had out there in the past 15 years (Vaughn/Klesko). Of course were getting Blanks at a much younger age then when we had those guys, and that helps the cause. I think we could get 4 or so good years out of him in LF. Will be interesting as guys like Fuentes & Liriano continue to advance through the minors. Surround Maybin with those two and you’d have one fleet outfield.
The money were talking about for a Blanks extension could amount to be around half of what he’s “worth” in one of his peak seasons. That’s the great unknown, but the potential is there for just that. The financial committment wouldn’t be terribly higher then what they were willing to pay Ludwick for this one year after coming off his crap performance last year. Good to keep the $$ in perspective.
I’m have nothing against Blanks, nor do I feel he can’t play LF in Petco. I would just prefer if the Padres had 3 top notch defensive outfielders running around that big yard. Like you say, possibly having Maybin, Liriano, Fuentes and/or, deep breath, Tate would be so great to watch. Even if they all hit .260 with 30-40 steals they would be great assets and fun to watch.
I am generally in favor of using the expected incremental increase in payroll to go towards locking up the core of this young team. I am not a big fan of signing pitchers to long term contracts; however, with Latos coming off a down year(compared to his previous year) now may be the time to take that risk. I would like to see Headley, Maybin, Hundley, Blanks, and Luebke all together for the next 5-6 years and the Padres should have the payroll flexibility going forward to make this happen. I just hope the extensions are not too long, handcuffing the Padres in the future should they whiff on 1 or 2 of these guys. Maybe lock up 1 or 2 at a time and see where each year brings them. The Padres don’t have much margin for error.
I like Luebke a lot as well. I’m not sure if Hoyer needs to lock him up just yet, as this is only his second ML season, but keeping him around for a years to come as a solid #3 is a very good idea.
Yeah it’s a little premature to even worry about locking up Luebke, several guys would need to be signed first to get to that point. Luebke will have 5 years of control after this season. With him already 26 this year that means he’s under control through his age 31 season.
Latos on the otherhand is set to become a free agent after his age 27 season, or how old Luebke will be next year!
It’s funny, Latos is having a down year, but even so his .237/.301/.360 line against is the 11th best in the NL. Now that he’s almost gotten through a full, healthy season, after starting the year with shoulder questions, I’m expecting his era to take a nice hike in the right direction. How a pitcher could give up the above line yet only have a 95 era+ seems fluckish to these eyes, especially in light of what he did in 2010.
If you need some convincing that Latos is a special talent dig into his numbers and compare to Peavy’s first two full seasons. Latos has done three things much better then Peavy did. 1) Pitch extremely well away from his home park, 2) Latos hasn’t gotten hit hard by lefties, and 3) he limits homerun’s – three things that troubled Peavy early on.
Had they had a do over with Peavy back in 2005 you can bet they’d have given Peavy a larger initial contract then the 4/14.5m he got with the 1 FA option year. If you could get Latos for 5/30m (going rate for Lester/Gallardo/Cahill) with 2 option years, that would give the Padres the option of keeping him for his first 3 FA years.
The only pause I have with Latos is making him a very rich man at such a young age. Would hate to see it go to his head.
It might be another decade (or more) before they develop another arm on par with Latos. Special circumstances require special attention. They could wait another year and try to sign him to a 4/32m + 2 options type deal, which would have a similar end result, but with it comes the risk of Latos prefering to go year-to-year, which history suggests is the likely case, or sign for a much larger 5/80m type deal another year down the road.
It’s a gamble (signing him now), but I think it’s a justifiable one. Latos wins 18 games next year and strikesout 220 batter’s, the Padres will have one of those “oh crap” moments when it comes down to talking extension.
Maybin finding success on another team continues to reinforce just how bad the Cabrera trade was for the Marlins
I was laughing at the Rangers because they gave up on Adrian too soon, I guess the Marlins did too, so double laugh for the Marlins losing Adrian and Maybin.
“Maybin has been one of San Diego’s most productive players.”
Have you seen his road numbers? Star caliber for a center fielder.