The Padres are next in our arbitration eligibles series.
- First time: Clayton Richard, Jeff Fulchino, Luke Gregerson, Will Venable, Nick Hundley, Joe Thatcher, Rob Johnson
- Second time: Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer, Dustin Moseley, Chris Denorfia, Alberto Gonzalez
- Third time: Jeremy Hermida
With 13 arbitration eligible players, the Padres have the biggest class of the 23 teams we've reviewed to date. It's not a terribly expensive group, however, with no individual projected to exceed a $3MM salary.
The Padres have plenty of non-tender candidates. September waiver claim Fulchino had a rough year; he'd earn $800K or so. Others on the bubble include Thatcher ($800K), Johnson ($700K), Gonzalez ($800K), and Hermida ($500K). There are reasons to retain several of them. Thatcher had a lost 2011 season due to April shoulder surgery, but a strong 2010. Gonzalez plays capable defense. Hermida was a late waiver claim who may merit a look in 2012.
Headley ($3MM), Stauffer ($3MM), Richard ($2MM), Moseley ($1.8MM), Venable ($1.8MM), Hundley ($1.6MM), Gregerson ($1.3MM), and Denorfia ($1.2MM) are on firmer ground. Richard and Moseley had decent but low-strikeout seasons cut short this summer due to shoulder surgery. There are also concerns with guys like Venable and Gregerson, but the prices aren't scary.
I don't expect all 13 players to be retained, but their combined salaries project for about $19.3MM. The Padres have just $13.55MM in 2012 contractual commitments, mostly from their middle infield. Adding the arbitration eligibles puts the team at $33MM in commitments next year, before minimum salary players are considered. Next year's payroll is expected to be in the $53-55MM range, leaving around $20MM in 2012 salaries for GM Jed Hoyer to allocate toward another group of low-risk, moderate reward free agents.
Matt Swartz contributed to this post.
Even with $20 million to sign/add guys, I am not convinced that the Padres will be able to add a bunch of wins through FA or trades this offseason. Ideally, the Padres would add some power to the lineup in the corner OF spots. We are flush with young 1B talent. I think the Padres trade from that pool of talent to upgrade in the OF.
Jose Reyes to the Padres for $20 million. Book It!
will you pay me 20 million when it doesn’t happen?
What do I get if it does happen?
jose reyes
Rob Johnson definitely needs to be cut. They probably could do better with Kyle Phillips and Luis Martinez. Hundley will see most of the playing time anyway. Thatcher is a tough choice. He’s a great lefty specialist but their system is so full of underrated pitching that he might be expendable. Perhaps they could him and try to trade him for a bat.
You also need to factor in an arbitration raise/extension for Heath Bell
Heath Bell is a free agent who may or may not be offered arbitration. That will be a later post I’m sure.
Tendered: Clayton Richard, Luke Gregerson, Nick Hundley, Joe Thatcher, Chase Headley, Tim Stauffer, Chris DenorfiaNon-Tendered: Jeremy Hermida , Jeff Fulchino, Will Venable, Rob Johnson, Dustin Moseley, Alberto Gonzalez
moseley got no run support. He’s like the cam newton of the mlb
Yeah, Moseley will be tendered a contract, same for Venable. Considering both Bell and Adams signed for 1m for their first arb year with SD, don’t see anyway Gregerson signs for 1.3m. I’ll go with 950k-1m. Headley will likely get more then 3m, best obp from 3b in the NL, coming off a 2.45m salary. Think he’ll get around 3.5m.
I am not convinced Denorfia will be retained. They have a lot of younger corner outfield talent and they are looking to upgrade anyways. Venable makes more sense of the two to be retained since he still has more upside than Denorfia. I like Deno as a 4th/5th outfielder if the Padres had better options at starting LF/RF.
Venable is 29, he does not have an upside.
Venable is on his last rope, however, he has flashed brilliance. There is a chance that Venable and Deno are both gone, unless one is retained as a 4th/5th starter. The Padres have a lot of questions to answer in the offseason.
From an upcoming post on Websoulsurfer discussing the Padres options for 2012:
Deno (31) plays great defense. His 2.5 dWar is amongst the best in the league and he hit.277/.337/.381/.718 with a 104 OPS+. He would have a good 4th OF.
Venable (29)hit .246/.310/.395/.704 with a 99 OPS+ and a 0.3 dWar. It was his 2nd year under .250. No real upside being shown, just occasional flashes of brilliance followed by extended periods of utter lack of talent.
I don’t disagree with your assessment. It is those flashes of brilliance that have kept the Padres organization high on Venable. Essentially, I am not arguing that Venable has been better the Deno. I am aware Deno has produced more than Venable. The only point I am making is the Padres view Venables flashes of brilliance as having upside. If he can maintain those flashes of brilliance for a longer period of time, he has a chance to be better than Deno. This is why the Padres continue to give Venable a chance. We know who Deno is, the Padres have been uncertain of who Venable will become.
Would love to see the Pads do anything and everything to dump O Hudson, eat some contract and move him on. Logan Forsythe or Andy Parrino would be an upgrade in attitude alone.
Hopefully Bell declines arb, and the Pads get the draft picks and save the money. Maybe Hoyer can convince Harang to decline his option and re-sign at a hometown discount, after the year he had, not sure if that is going to happen.
Would think that a player like Blanks could have some interest as trade bait, but that assumes you have an idea of what is going to happen with your corner OF’s and assuming Guzman is your starting 1B next year. Lots to be done, and not much to do it with……
Bell wants to play for the Padres
I know he wants to play for the Padres, but paying a closer 10+ million (which he will get in arb) on a 50 million dollar payroll makes no-sense……if he wants to sign for 2 years at 7 a year….great…if not, I don’t see the sense in it.
Bell would get somewhere between $12 and 13 million in arbitration.
He has the most saves over the past 3 years by 10. He has a lower ERA, FIP and xFIP than any pitcher below except Rivera. He was lower than Riversa in FIP and 2nd to Rivera in the other 2 categories.
Now look at the comparable closers salaries.
1. Mariano Rivera, $15,000,000 (2008-10) (2011-12)
2. Brad Lidge, $12,500,000 (2009-11)
3. Francisco Rodriguez, $12,333,333 (2009-11)
4. Jonathan Papelbon, $12,000,000 (2011)
He won’t be back at anywhere near that salary.
You have a point. But look at the teams that these closers play for. They can actually afford to dedicate those amounts to single player, let alone a closer. Bell is as good as gone which might not be a bad thing for the Padres.
Jose,
The point is that if the Padres offer arbitration Bell WILL accept and Bell WILL get substantially more than the $10 million Ohhhplease posited. It had nothing to do with whether the teams that employ those other closers could afford that amount.
If Bell is going to come back to the Padres it will have to be at a team friendly $8-9 million/year and I don’t think he will accept that regardless of whether he would prefer to stay a Padre. The Padres already made an insulting 2 year offer that is $10-12 million below market value.
Look for him to sign with the Angels at a relatively team friendly 2 years $20-24 million with an option for a 3rd year. They are close to where he wants to live in San Diego and are able to pay that amount for a closer.
I have not heard any reports of Hudson having a bad attitude. I would not be opposed to moving him if they could, simply to give Forsythe a chance for a full year.
Harangs option is a mutual one. The Padres have the right to decline.
Blanks will not return much via trade at this point. His stock is low after his injury until he can put up respectable #’s for a full season and remain healthy… .260/.330/.470 for a full year should do it.
Hoyer was on Darren Smith (1090) and very much glossed around a question about Hudson’s attitude. WOuld have been easy for Hoyer to say, “No, his attitude was great we loved him in the clubhouse”, but he just said that he hopes Hudson has a good offseason and comes back better prepared mentally and physically.
That lends me to believe that he was not the clubhouse guy they were looking for.
I agree about Blanks, his stock is down, but his upside is high……DH for the Angels? Or make Kendry your DH and play Blanks at 1st ? Just a thought…..
Both local San Diego papers have covered it of late. The Union Tribune has noted repeatedly how quickly Hudson has left the clubhouse. There was also the flare up over Twitter in May about comments which were made on Hudson’s account, only for him to say that it is someone else doing the posting for him because talking to fans is dumb (or something along those lines).
Sorry, don’t read the local papers…. used to, but they are pretty much garbage papers, IMO.
Harang 76th of 90 qualifying starting pitchers in xFIP and 88th in WAR. Just let him walk for the money he would get. Rather see Bass or a starter with more upside get his starts.
I could go either way on Harang. His 1.9 war is worth more than his $4.5m($5m if you include the cost of the buyout) cost for 2012. He brings a veteran presence, having 1 veteran pitcher in a pool of youngsters is a good thing. That said, there is a reasonable argument on saving $4m by pitching Bass or retaining Moseley to get similar production as Harang. I don’t see this as a make or break decision for the Padres. I don’t think they can go wrong either way, unless of course Harang gets injured for a long period of time. Insurance sometimes takes care of that.
The padres should try to trade Guzman and blanks and a little more to the Rays for Upton. Upton would be a great right fielder in Petco
Maybin and Upton in the same outfield would be crazy. Don’t see it happening, but I sure would like to see that deal done.
Venable with a little more power? No thank you. Just say no to underachiever Upton.
Upton is a much better player than Venable, Upton hit 23 home runs, Venable hit 9, Upton had 81 RBIs, Venable had 44, Upton had 36 stolen bases, Venable had 26, Upton is also a year younger and a better fielder. He would be a clear upgrade
And how many home runs would Upton hit in San Diego? 10? Maybe 15?
If Venable had the same amount of at bats how many would he have hit in Tropicana and the tiny little AL East ballparks?
Just think of how many outs in Petco are home runs in Yankee Stadium, Rogers Centre and Camden Yards with their short porches. WOW!
So no thank you.
Padres, should trade for Lackey and the Red Sox eat 20MM, and should also trade for Byrd and the cubs eat 3MM.
I don’t know what to say about this team anymore…..just incredibly frustrating how previous ownership damm near ruined this franchise. Leaves you speechless, almost.
I don’t know what to say about this team anymore….just INCREDIBLY frustrating how previous ownership just about ruined this franchise once it moved into PETCO. Leaves you speechless almost. I’m expecting 2012 to look like 2011, because I don’t think the present ownership had enuf BALLS to REALLY ‘sac up’ to make this team VERY competitive next season. I just don’t.
The three guys most likely to be Non Tenders are: Jeff Fulchino, Rob Johnson, Alberto Gonzalez. The other guys on the bubble would be Thatcher, Denorfia and Hermida.
Bye Bye, Heath Bell!!
Bye Bye, Heath Bell!!
I agree. His option is good for the Padres. i just hope he accepts because it is a mutual option.
Harang is just not a good pitcher. He ranked in the bottom of the qualifying pitchers in WAR, FIP, xFIP and every other true measure of a pitchers performance. Take a look at Fangraphs leaders.
If the Padres want to take a chance on a veteran pitcher with upside I would like to see them go after Bedard.