The Rangers are offering "Dice-K money" to Yu Darvish, sources tell Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, and there's no evidence a deal is close. Daisuke Matsuzaka received a six-year, $52MM deal from the Red Sox about five years ago. Heyman says it's not clear whether the Rangers' offer to Darvish is for five or six years. The deadline to work out a deal is January 18th at 4pm central time. The Rangers won the exclusive right to negotiate with Darvish for $51,703,411, which would be returned to them from the Nippon Ham Fighters if they fail to reach an agreement with Darvish.
In October, I polled five agents and one team executive and most predicted a five or six-year deal in the $72-75MM range for Darvish.
I hope he signs with them. I don’t want to see Texas get Fielder if he doesn’t.
Dice-K money is unlikely to get it done. In Japan, Darvish would most likely make ~$18MM total the next two years before he became a true free agent, able to negotiate with all 30 teams. He would be sacrificing a BUNCH of money by settling for a ~$50MM deal.
Darvish wouldn’t actually be eligible for full free agency for another two years as I recall and he’s not going to get nearly as much at 27 as he would now.
I said two years above…
At 27, he is likely to get a 6/100 deal at least. If he think he can get anywhere near that, then the Rangers will need to offer significantly more for it to make financial sense to play in the US.
I call shenanigans. Offering $100MM over six years to a 25 year old when half of that money won’t be applied to luxury tax, but I cannot feasibly imagine any MLB team would like up $17MM in luxury tax countable payroll to a pitcher with no major league experience. That’s about a fifth of payroll on a big question mark for most teams. Even Strasburg didn’t get that much of a guarantee and he’s was as close to a sure thing ace as there’s been in years.
The 6/100 I gave was for two years from now, when he is on the open market (I have little doubt he would get that much if no posting fee were involved).
I know and I disagree. The big thing for me is that it would all be countable toward the luxury tax and he’d be two years older at that point, meaning two years closer to over the hill. That deal would have him signed through his age 33 season, which would be after an additional two years of pitching a monumental workload in the Japanese system and it would ALL go towards luxury tax calculations. If I’m an MLB team, I’d much sooner spend $100MM now when he’s two years younger and half of it can be written off from the taxable payroll (Something that will potentially take the most likely teams to commit big money like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Angels who are already close to the threshold or over it out of the mix) than spend that same $100MM two years from now when he’s older, his arm’s been further overloaded by the Japanese system (Something that eventually ended up in TJ surgery by 30 for Matsuzaka) and he’s still just as big of a question mark in regards to his ability to pitch in the majors.
Sorry, I misunderstood you.
And I agree that such a deal may be a bad idea for the team giving it. My point was simply that some team WOULD give him that much money. So, from Darvish’s perspective, he should prefer to wait (assuming the rangers don’t significantly up their offer).
It’s not just the wisdom of it I find issue with, I seriously don’t think it’s remotely feasible a team will offer him nine figures. The big guns who are apt to offer a pitcher that kind of money are the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and Phillies and all four of them will be close to the luxury tax in 2014, meaning none of them is likely to risk going over the luxury tax for a pitcher who has never appeared in the MLB before.
The ONLY team I could picture approaching that figure is the Cubs if they’re closer to contention and they’re a big maybe.
Sorry, I misunderstood you.
And I agree that such a deal may be a bad idea for the team giving it. My point was simply that some team WOULD give him that much money. So, from Darvish’s perspective, he should prefer to wait (assuming the rangers don’t significantly up their offer).
I know and I disagree. The big thing for me is that it would all be countable toward the luxury tax and he’d be two years older at that point, meaning two years closer to over the hill. That deal would have him signed through his age 33 season, which would be after an additional two years of pitching a monumental workload in the Japanese system and it would ALL go towards luxury tax calculations. If I’m an MLB team, I’d much sooner spend $100MM now when he’s two years younger and half of it can be written off from the taxable payroll (Something that will potentially take the most likely teams to commit big money like the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies and Angels who are already close to the threshold or over it out of the mix) than spend that same $100MM two years from now when he’s older, his arm’s been further overloaded by the Japanese system (Something that eventually ended up in TJ surgery by 30 for Matsuzaka) and he’s still just as big of a question mark in regards to his ability to pitch in the majors.
If I were the Rangers, I’d low ball Darvish with the hopes he doesn’t accept and the post fee is voided. I think the Rangers would be better off going after fielder, giving him $125mm for 5 years and going after another pitcher via trade. If they do both, great for them, but I do think that Hamilton will start regressing soon, he won’t be in CF 2 years from now, so I guess conversely, he could move to 1st, which is perhaps what the Rangers may already have planned, so my point would be moot. They will need offensive more than the pitching soon.
I agree with you on everything but the last sentence.
Contractually, they can’t just “low-ball” him. Teams are required to negotiate “in good faith.” Offering Matsuzaka-ish money could be considered fair (Considering the posting fee was around the same, setting precedent), but full on low-balling him would raise red flags and potentially get the Rangers in trouble and the Darvish rights may be awarded to the next highest bidder.
Fair enough. Wasn’t insinuating they offer him $30mm over 5 years. More like $50mm over 6, which is not in the range Darvish seeks, which would be low, but at the same time done in good faith.
Giving that kind of offer would probably be considered fine as they could easily cite precedent of the posting fee being roughly equivalent to Matsuzaka’s posting fee and the impression from there is that if the posting fee was enough to top Matsuzaka’s, only slightly topping Matsuzaka’s contract should be a valid offer.
Not going to happen. MLB isn’t going after one of it’s own for such simple b.s.
Texas has the #2 offense in the league. I think they’re good there. So I’d rather focus on improving the pitching. As for Hamilton, he’s already been moved to LF, so I don’t see your point.
hamilton and napoli are gone next year; kinsler and cruz the year after that
whether by extension or replacement, the offense will need to be addressed
…exactly what I was thinking and trying to say, but your comment just made more sense.
So you’re assuming that JD let’s all four walk and doesnt sign or replace any of them? Not gonna happen. Cruz will likely be gone, Hamilton too if JD is concerned about injuries (which he doesn’t seem to be with Hamilton). At the point when Cruz leaves, Profar could be ready and it’s not too far fetched to think Kinsler could make a Soriano type move to the outfield with his speed and glove. You could also move Moreland permanently back to his RF position to replace Cruz and put a guy like Olt at 1B. Texas will be losing both catchers this next offseason but they’ll likely either extend Napoli or sign another top catcher in FA. Our offense will be fine.
how did you even
extending them would be addressing the offense, which is what i just said they’ll need to do
I got the impression Century thought we would need to address our offense outside of extending out core. Which is what I disagree with here. But I do agree we need to extend players. I’ve been calling for extension for these guys (not Cruz) since World Series ended. But in terms of using any money outside of extensions, I’d rather address pitching.
I’d like to use Cruz as a trade chip after this season.
That’d be nice, but given his injur history, age and the fact that he’d only have one more year, I find it hard to see us getting too much for him. But if Salty can get us one of our best pitching prospects then… Who knows.
Actually had to go research that. I thought that was a throw away trade and didn’t realize that Mendez was a top 10 in our system.
how did you even
extending them would be addressing the offense, which is what i just said they’ll need to do
So you’re assuming that JD let’s all four walk and doesnt sign or replace any of them? Not gonna happen. Cruz will likely be gone, Hamilton too if JD is concerned about injuries (which he doesn’t seem to be with Hamilton). At the point when Cruz leaves, Profar could be ready and it’s not too far fetched to think Kinsler could make a Soriano type move to the outfield with his speed and glove. You could also move Moreland permanently back to his RF position to replace Cruz and put a guy like Olt at 1B. Texas will be losing both catchers this next offseason but they’ll likely either extend Napoli or sign another top catcher in FA. Our offense will be fine.
When was he moved to LF? You mean for the upcoming season he’ll be playing LF? Even if he moves to LF he’s still going to have a sharp regression physically in the coming years. He’ll be 31 just after the opening weeks of the season. I’ll stand behind what I said and I think he’ll be 1st and more so a full time DH 2/3 years from now. I give him one more, maybe two at best, solid seasons in the field.
Ham will play LF probably for the majority of the rest of his career. He’s not a 1B. Next year, Julio Borbon will start in LF more than likely, until Leonys Martin is ready.
EDIT: Julio in CF, not LF.
I agree the Rangers have some studs coming up for the OF, but I disagree that he’ll be playing LF or any outfield position for remainder of his career. Substance abuse has serious repercussions to the body, especially an athlete who has far more daily wear and tear. I don’t wish for this, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the upcoming season is his last playing a position full time.
I could understand that arguement if he had an aweful injury prone season from playing the field last year, but he didn’t. The injuries he had were the freak accident at home plate and the strained groin he had at the plate. None of them were from him making a play in the outfield. He’s such a freak athelete, and I think that he will last.
LF isn’t that hard on anyone.
Hamilton played LF a good portion of last season. The only reason he still played a good amount of CF is because Borbon was a complete waste and Leonys Martin wasn’t ready yet.
Na, we have the 3rd. Yanks and Sox are ahead…as of last year anyway.
Texas and Boston are close in my opinion. I think Texas is deeper top to bottom, so I’ll take that over Boston.
Past rumors stated Darvish wanted about $15 mil per season…so $8 mil per isn’t going to cut it. Likely that the Rangers will blink and offer something like 5/$65mil.
edit -Disqus mess-up deleted
If Darvish gets $52MM it will be over 4 years, maybe 5, but definitely not 6.
You think Darvish will take 10 or so mill a year? That’d be great and all but I doubt that’s enough him to move over to the states.
I’m sure he won’t, but if it’s “Dice-K money” then it’s definitely not over 6 years. I’m willing to bet it’s more like CJ Wilson money, around 5/75.
So the Rangers are going to be basically paying an AAV of $20 million for him, Roy Halladay money. He better be good.
..and that’s the thing. I’d rather have Fielder now, roasting balls 450 feet at $25mm per for the next 5 years and funny you bring up Halladay in comparison. Keep in mind he is a free agent after 2013 and I could definitely see someone like him going to the Rangers with the right terms. He’d be an aged ace, but still an ace who would bring much value to what will be at that point, a very young and talented rotation. Halladay is smart and the Rangers will likely be a perennial contender for years to come, and in an environment Halladay will probably like, whereas the Phillies I feel, will face several constraints down the road soon. I’m not sure the Phillies will stay at their peek as long as teams like the Yanks and Red Sox have. Just a gut feeling, but I think the Phillies need to win it this year or next or a few of those players may not see the post season for a while again. Much hinges on Hamels resigning and whether Cliff Lee will hold up for the remaining 4 years. They have one of the older rosters in baseball and I’m not holding my breath on Ryan Howard returning to top form for the duration of his contract after the injury he suffered.
I think when that time comes, Halladay would have to want to go to the Rangers. Other teams would offer him more money at that stage of his career, when the Rangers might shy away.
Halladay is a funny guy in that I think he has a little vendetta against a few teams, including mine, which I respect. He never took me a $$ ball player, he’s technically been undervalued while in Philadelphia. That said, I could see a few teams like the Rangers, D-Backs, or Royals, all young teams with promising futures being his final landing spot. I’m fairly certain Halladay shys away from New York, Boston and many other places when the times comes. In fact, I 100% certain he’ll never play in Boston or New York. If there was a betting line open for this, I’d put $100.00 on it that Halladay is a Ranger in 2 years. Or maybe even the Cubs now that I think of it.
I would love to have him, even at 36 or 37.
Look at Roy’s last free agency. He didn’t want to go to a team that had spring training in Arizona.
True and I do remember that now that you say it. But that was several years ago and he may change his position on that as he gets older, but definitely worth mentioning and I had forgotten about that.
Dice-K money, not to be confused with monopoly money. A big smiling picture of Daisuke’s mug in the center of the bill. A sight to be seen, no doubt.
I don’t want Fielder over Darvish…both…ok maybe, if the price is right, but it won’t be with Boras.
The Rangers scored 855 runs last year. If they add Fielder they might score 915 runs next year.
But if Feliz flops in the rotation, Ogando does not emerge as a strong reliable starter and the rest of the rotation does not deliver they will need that many more runs just to match last year’s W/L record. It might even drop.
how sad