A few items to pass along as the Phillies begin their defense of five consecutive NL East crowns …
- Center fielder Shane Victorino, entering his final season before free agency, said there haven't yet been any negotiations between him and the Phils regarding an extension, but he said wants to remain in Philly, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. “I don’t plan on going anywhere else,” he said.
- Brad Lidge, now of the Nationals, said the Phillies reversed course after telling him that they wanted to re-sign him at the conclusion of 2011, according to Bob Brookover of the Philadelphia Inquirer. GM Ruben Amaro told Brookover that the sides discussed a modest deal early in the offseason but moved on to other options when Lidge passed in favor of seeking closing opportunities elsewhere.
- Now that Cole Hamels has expressed a willingness to remain with the Phillies — and perhaps even sign at a hometown discount — the onus is on the club to secure the left-hander with a long-term contract, opines Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com. Rosenthal adds that even with an already hefty payroll, the Phils can afford Hamels, as they've already sold 3.1MM tickets for 2012.
Onus. Now that’s a word one doesn’t hear often.
Anyway, yeah. At this point I’d be shocked if the Phils don’t work it out with Hamels. The ball really is in their court.
onus & opines — this is a classy blog!
I’m not sure the Phils can still afford Hamels and Shane after this year…It’s great that they sold that many tickets already and it is a true testament to how passionaite the fanbase in Philly is, but we know not all that money goes into the Phillies. What they need is a new TV deal and then the LT won’t matter.
On Victorino, if he signs a three year deal, I’d be fine with that, but I think he ends up in SD closer to Hawaii for four years+ with their new TV deal.
I’ll be very happy if/when they announce a deal for Hamels regardless of $ and years. It’s always good to keep homegrown talent through their prime years (even if you have to keep them around for a couple years longer than you want) and that is something the Phillies seem to have been doing for a bit now.
First priority’s Cole Hamels. There’s still the posibility (very slim) that Mayberry turns himself into an every day player and can take over for Shane for a year or so until Pence’s contract’s up.
I’m curious to see what Tyson Gillies can do. I doubt he’d be ready any sooner than mid season 2013.
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There’s still the posibility (very slim) that Mayberry turns himself into an every day player”
Is this Charlie Manuel? Did you even watch Mayberry play last season? He played better than most of this teams everyday players.
“He played better than most of this teams everyday players.”
… you left out in the 2nd half. He was awful in the first half until he came back from AAA.
and you can’t compare Mayberry to the likes of Victorino, Rollins, Howard, etc because he didn’t in fact play every day and was protected from facing the Tim Lincecums, the Matt Cains, the Josh Johnsons, etc of the world.
I still don’t think he’s going to be able to hit right handed pitching well enough (good, quality right handed pitching not bad middle relievers) to be an everyday player.
that was the same argument about Jayson Werth also–couldnt hit off-speed, couldnt hit Rhanded pitching…and Werth made the physical plate adjustment (dropping his hands) and we already saw Mayberry make that exact same hitting adjustment when he returned from his AAA stint (as you mentioned). It is early to tell what Mayberry can bring to the table, but with our outfield depth I seriously cannot see mgmt investing any more into Victorino…hes a fan favorite for sure, but I think he falls victim to the fact that Hamels is priority number 1 and Victorino can be replaced
The question is, if they sign Hamels long term at something close to Santana’s contract (6/138 I think) can they field a competitive offensive team given what they are currently locked into. I understand that they have a high payroll and that they are selling tickets but they can’t really sell more than last season. They are selling out every night, their revenue is their revenue at this point.
Payroll though they are currently paying several older players substantial money to play their positions for years to come. It’s not like they have a ton of wiggle room. If they choose not to resign Victorino how are they going to replace their first or second best offensive player? Is the answer an aging Josh Hamilton or Andre Ethier? Who knows who even hits the market. Also, its not that Lee and Halladay are going to fall off of a Cliff but in 2 years they likely won’t be 2 of the best 10 pitchers in the MLB. That isn’t a knock on them its just kind of what happens in baseball. And that offense doesn’t really have any reinforcements on its way. I understand they have Dom Brown but a) they don’t seem to want to utilize him b) prospects miss all of the time, he might be one of them. The I could be wrong but I don’t think Phillies are that far away from becoming similar to the 2011 San Francisco Giants.
I’d be very surprised if it took something similar to what Santana signed for to get Hamels. At the time Santana was considered easily a top 5 pitcher. Hamels is good and top of the rotation on almost any team but I don’t think many people outside of Philly would call him a top 10 pitcher.
I get what you’re saying but ages 22-27 Sabathia had a 127 ERA+, Hamels has a 126. I don’t think Philadelphia has anything to do with that, those are elite numbers. And maybe he isn’t a top 10 but Santana signed that deal like 5 years ago, seems totally fair for Cole. Not to mention Lee who was 3-4 years older got 5/125. Why wouldn’t Cole get more?
Cole is benefiting from one of the best defensive teams in recent memory. Not to say he wouldn’t be an elite pitcher anywhere, but some of his stats are getting a bit padded by the fact that he’s got spectacular gloves behind him.
3.03 SIERA, 3.05 FIP, 3.02 xFIP last season. He’s a stud no matter where you put him.
As I said, he’s an elite pitcher anywhere. But if you put some less-than-best-in-the-league defense behind him, you’d see some of his stats (including ERA+) rise somewhat, making a Johan-esque contract not nearly as “fitting.”
Especially looking at what happened with that contract.
hey the contract is not over yet. I hope my favorite pitcher from the last decade can bounce back this year. He probably won’t be worth as much as he’s getting paid… but Johan’s going to give it all he’s got.
He’s had stellar seasons even when the Mets were going downhill.
And I place some, or most, of the blame on their inept medical staff for the delayed rehab of injuries.
– ECB
Those are fielding independent numbers. And if Cole is benefiting from the defense I guess Halladay and Lee must not be as good as their numbers show, right?
How is ERA+ independent of fielding? A player with greater range is going to get a ball that a player without it would not. It won’t be deemed an error by the official scorer if Prince Fielder legitimately has no shot to get to a ball smoked down the 1st-base line, but if Adam Lind makes a diving catch, it prevents a hit (possibly a run), which in turn impacts the pitcher’s Earned-Run-derived statistics.
As far as Halladay and Lee, yes, they benefited from an excellent defense in 2011. Does that mean they’d be bad, mediocre, or slightly above-average elsewhere? No. But it also means that some of their numbers would look slightly less impressive on other teams.
It must be nice to already have more tickets sold for 2012 than my club will even hope to sell by the end of the year. Then again, consistent winning allows that to happen when it comes to selling tickets (unless you’re the Rays).
Here is the deal with the phillies money situation (at least from what I have observed)
Assuming they don’t completely fall off in the next 2-3 years, they will be top 3 in ticket and merchandise sales every year for some time to come. That, plus their rich and, lately, willing to part with cash ownership group allows them to run a 170-180 million payroll during that time. That leads up to 2015 / 2016, when the phillies will get a new TV deal worth at least 5 billion dollars. no one needs to panic, unless the phils go .500 and miss the playoff this year and next.
Now regardless of all of that money, they still are going to need to have young cheap talent to plug into the 4 & 5 SP spots, at least one outfielder and one infielder, maybe a catcher and most (or all) of the bullpen and bench. It doesn’t matter how much money you have if you are paying 3 20m pitchers and 75m+ for your 5 best offensive guys. Because of that, I think they are going to take every opportunity they can in the next few years to plug young guys in if they are ready. If brown and Mayberry have good years, adios Shane. Valle could be the starting catcher at less than 1m – year on average from 2013-2018. They have good young pitching that could replace halladay and Lee in 2-4 years. They had a great draft in 2011 and lots of picks in 2012.
What I’m saying is relax. The phillies are still in great shape for the future. A few god breaks and they could be looking at a long dynasty ala the braves in the 90s – 2003 (hopefully with more world series wins of course).
End got cut off
They are in great shape for the future is what that should say. A few good breaks and they could be looking at a legit dynasty situation with a few more WCs.
Need to lock up Hamels. As for Victorino… if Domonic Brown is killing it triple A come June I think you seriously consider bringing him up, letting him get some at bats at major level and if he does well you trade Shane come all-star break. You can’t let Victorino walk and not get anything in return. (yes I know we would most likely get a draft pick but that system seems to be shady now after this latest CBA)
soo…..
I’m either trading Shane for ONE top 3B, SS, or a 2B prospect along with a mid-level pitching prospect.
Or
I’m trading Shane for prospects to then flip over for a starting 3B (David Wright or Adrian Beltre)
Adrian Beltre just signed a 6 year deal with Texas that began last year. He isn’t getting moved. And who is going to pay top prospects that could aquire David Wright for 1/2 of Victorino. Why wouldn’t they just get David Wright themselves. Keep dreaming. You are not getting that much for half of one year of Shane Victorino.
Philibuster –
As for the owners, no we don’t know exactly how wealthy they are, but they are clearly wealthy enough. They own a team with the 2-3 highest payroll in the league, and let’s not forget that there are a lot of them.
The TV deal – not only do they have 3 times the viewers as the padres, but San Diego is a small market relatively speaking. The Philadelphia metro area is the 4th largest market in sports and the biggest with only one baseball team as
Opposed to NYC, Chicago, and LAs 2 teams. Not only do they have the 5.5 million people in the city and immediate suburbs – The phillies broadcast area also includes the Allentown – Reading – Lancaster corridor (1.5 million people) and the rest of S Jersey (another million).
4 billion $ is a conservative estimate when looking at that info and comparable deals. 5 is a pretty safe bet.
We can assume that their payroll indicates that they’re well-off, or it’s also possible that we’re legitimately reaching the ceiling of where they’re comfortable going. Neither you, nor I, have any idea on that score – anything we may say about it is purely inference.
The Greater San Diego Metropolitan Area has about 4.8MM residents. The Greater Philadelphia Metropolitan Area (which includes almost all of those areas you listed, as well as portions of Delaware) has about 6.7MM residents. That is larger, but not hugely larger. It’s all well and good that we’ve only got one MLB team here, but even if you average out Angels and Dodgers fans, they still have a larger viewer base (greater LA Metro Area has 18+MM residents). Same goes for the Mets and Yankees (22+MM residents in the Greater NYC Metro).
Additionally, the Padres deal was for twenty years. You would have a very hard time convincing me that the Phillies are willing to sign a TV contract that long. Couple that with the fact that numerous sources (even according to the Gelb article) are saying the Padres contract will not reach the $1.5BB mark, and I think it’s extremely premature to be predicting that the Phillies’ new TV contract will be more valuable than the Dodgers’ new contract is projected to be.
And the dodgers aren’t really comparable here. They have serious financial and ownership issues. The phillies don’t have either. The dodgers also compete with the angels for viewers. The phillies have a monopoly in their viewing area, strengthened even more by having the AAA, AA, and low A affiliates within the viewing area and 50 miles from CBP.
I can’t wait for two months from now when people aren’t talking about the Dodgers like this anymore.
Actually, I would think that the confusion with ownership would result in a higher value contract, because the new owners are going to want to bring in as much money as possible in to help offset the costs of acquiring the team in the first place.
Couple that with a viewer base that’s 3 times larger than the Phillies (1.5-2, if you want to assume that the split between Angels and Dodgers fans is 50/50), and the fact that the Angels just signed a new TV contract recently as well (to the tune of roughly $3BB), and I’m decidedly unconvinced that Gelb’s projection is realistic.