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Blue Jays Still Mulling Starting Pitching Options

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The Blue Jays are still interested in acquiring a starting pitcher, but won't say how interested they are in Masahiro Tanaka, the Toronto Star's Brendan Kennedy reports. "I have said that we’re definitely going to inquire on any free-agent pitchers that are out there," is about as specific as GM Alex Anthopoulos is willing to get.

If they don't sign Tanaka (and with the Yankees, Dodgers and other big-payroll teams interested, that might be a tall order), the Jays could pursue pitchers like Ervin Santana, Ubaldo Jimenez and Matt Garza, whose markets have been slow to develop due to the uncertainty over Tanaka's status. Kennedy suggests that the Blue Jays would be in an especially favorable position with regard to Santana and Jimenez, who declined qualifying offers, because the Jays' first-round picks in 2014, ninth and 11th overall, are both protected.

It's still possible, also, that the Blue Jays could acquire a starting pitcher via trade, but Anthopoulos isn't sure whether a trade or free agency will be the best route. "I would say it’s 50-50 at this point," says Anthopoulos. "Free-agent prices tend to change as the winter goes along. I don’t know that I’d say one is more likely than the other at this point."

Quick Hits: A-Rod, McGuiness, Tanaka, Twins, Jays

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Brendan Kuty of the Star-Ledger looks at how much money the Yankees can save based on the outcome of Alex Rodriguez's case.  If his full 211 game suspension is upheld, the Yankees would be off of the hook for his $25MM salary in 2014 and roughly $6.8MM in 2015, good for a total of $31.8MM saved over the next two years.  Meanwhile, if A-Rod manages to win his appeal, he could recoup those funds and potentially more thanks to the incentives he can get for passing Willie Mays (660), Babe Ruth (714), Hank Aaron (755), and Barry Bonds (762) on the all-time home run list.  He's in line to get $6MM for each separate milestone. Here are more notes from around the Majors.

  • The Pirates acquired first baseman Chris McGuiness from the Rangers because they were seeking a left-handed first bat to platoon with Gaby Sanchez and have a surplus of bullpen arms, tweets Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Pittsburgh shipped reliever Miles Mikolas to Texas in the deal, whom they acquired in late November from San Diego. It's possible the Pirates will use McGuiness more as a depth option than as their starter at first base against righties, however.
  • Masahiro Tanaka will be more like Rangers standout Yu Darvish than big league bust Daisuke Matsuzaka, opines Gregg Doyel of CBSSports.com.
  • The Twins and Blue Jays took different paths towards fixing their rotations this offseason, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.  Since the season ended, Twins GM Terry Ryan has signed Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey with a series of moves that cost $84MM. Anthopoulos, meanwhile, hasn't signed any starters, opting instead to explore trades and bide his time on select free agents.

AL West Notes: Tanaka, Ibanez, Astros

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In today’s press conference to introduce Raul Ibanez, Angels GM Jerry Dipoto declined to comment on whether he’s in on Masahiro Tanaka, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.  “It’s not fair to the player or the organization to openly discuss free agents,” said Dipoto (link).  Despite that, Fletcher thinks it’s still safe to assume they’re interested in the Japanese hurler. More out of the AL West..

  • Brian McTaggart of MLB.com looked at the Astros’ top storylines from 2013, including owner Jim Crane expanding the payroll and the appointment of Ryan Reid as president of business operations.
  • Ibanez told reporters, including Fletcher (Twitter link) that he wouldn’t still be playing if he didn’t think he could do it at a high level.  The 41-year-old inked a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $2.75MM that can go as high as $5MM with incentives.
  • Ibanez also talks about why he hits well at the Angels’ home park, tweets Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.  The slugger said the background allows him to see ball well, he benefits from the park’s wide open gaps, and he says the ball moves well through the infield.  His value is also helped by the fact that he won’t have to play the outfield in Anaheim.

Pirates, Rangers Swap McGuiness, Mikolas

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The Pirates have acquired first baseman Chris McGuiness from the Rangers for reliever Miles Mikolas, according to a team release. The Rangers also designated outfielder Rafael Ortega for assignment. McGuiness was designated for assignment when the Rangers signed Shin-Soo Choo.

McGuiness, 25, made his big league debut in 2013, batting .176/.176/.206 in 34 plate appearances. Originally acquired from the Red Sox in the trade that sent Jarrod Saltalamacchia to the Red Sox, McGuiness batted .246/.369/.423 with 11 homers in 436 plate appearances at Triple-A Round Rock last season.

Mikolas, also 25, has 27 big league relief appearances to his credit over the last two years.  The right-hander spent the bulk of the year with the Padres' Triple-A Tucson affiliate, where he pitched to a 3.25 ERA with 5.9 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 54 relief appearances.  Mikolas came from San Diego in a late November trade along with Jaff Decker but he didn't stay long.  He entered the season ranked 25th among Padres prospects, per Baseball America, who noted that he has a good curveball and can touch 98 mph with a fastball that doesn't have much movement on it.  BA wrote that his ceiling may be a middle reliever or setup man, but he has a high probability of reaching that level.

Ortega, 22, spent the year at the Double-A level in the Rockies' system, hitting .228/.315/.297 in 42 games.  Last season was the outfielder's sixth season in the Rockies' system and his first in Double-A.  You can keep track of everyone in DFA limbo using MLBTR's DFA Tracker.

Zach Links contributed to this post.

Yankees Plan To Incur 2014-15 Int’l Spending Penalties

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The Yankees plan to spend $12MM-$15MM on the 2014-15 international amateur free agent market, incurring $10MM-$12MM in penalties, Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com reports. That $12MM-$15MM figure would not include potential spending for Masahiro Tanaka, who is not subject to international bonus pools that govern spending for most Latin American amateurs.

2014-2015 international bonus pools have not yet been set, but the Yankees' figures to be about $2MM to $2.5MM, according to McDaniel. The Yankees would have to pay a 100 percent tax on any spending past 10 percent higher than their bonus pool. If they go more than 15 percent above their bonus pool, they would also lose their ability to sign any international amateur for more than $300K in the 2015-16 or 2016-17 signing seasons. Greatly exceeding their bonus pool could also cause the Yankees to lose top picks in an international draft, if MLB decides to institute one. Obviously, by spending $12MM-$15MM, the Yankees would blow way past those penalties, incurring around $10MM in taxes and spending a total somewhere near $25MM.

In 2013, the Cubs spent heavily on international prospects Eloy Jimenez, Gleyber Torres, Erling Moreno, Jen-Ho Tseng, Jefferson Mejia, and Johan Matos. That gave the Cubs the two top international prospects on the market (Jimenez and Torres), plus two more in the top 30 (Moreno and Tseng). That spending cost the Cubs $7.895MM. It appears the Yankees plan to spend far more, which would potentially allow them to dominate the international market, unless other teams ignore their bonus pools as well.

For the Yankees, one positive in making their plan public, as McDaniel points out, is that agents will not assume the Yankees are making offers in bad faith. McDaniel reports that an executive from a team that has exceeded its bonus pool in the past said the team had trouble getting agents to believe its offers were sincere. The Yankees should not have that problem if agents believe the Yanks are willing to exceed their bonus pool.

The Changing Closer Market

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This offseason, we've seen a $240MM contract for Robinson Cano. We've seen $153MM for Jacoby Ellsbury. We've seen $130MM for Shin-Soo Choo. There seems to be no shortage of money for free agents. What we haven't seen is much of that money going to closers. There's been a pronounced change in the closer market this year compared to last.

Here are the pitchers who recorded at least ten saves in 2012 and signed as free agents the following offseason.

Brandon League Dodgers 3 years, $22.5MM, 2016 vesting/player option
Jonathan Broxton Reds 3 years, $21MM, 2016 team option
Rafael Soriano Nationals 2 years, $28MM, 2015 team/vesting option
Jose Valverde Tigers Minor-league contract
Brett Myers Indians 1 year, $7MM, 2015 team option
Matt Capps Indians Minor-league contract

The Yankees also signed Mariano Rivera, who missed most of 2012 due to injury, to a one-year, $10MM contract. This was a special circumstance, however, since Rivera was 42 and not looking to maximize his value on the open market.

Rivera aside, this wasn't a very good set of deals. League struggled in 2013, losing the Dodgers' closer job in the first year of his deal. Broxton did not pitch well, then had elbow surgery. Soriano fared better, but had peripheral numbers that suggest the possibility of a decline next season. The market seemed to have significant reservations about Valverde and Myers (who wasn't even signed as a closer anyway), and those reservations turned out to be well-founded. Capps missed much of the 2012 and 2013 seasons with arm injuries.

In any case, the League, Broxton and Soriano contracts probably weren't the best examples of how teams should approach the task of finding a closer (or a setup man, in Broxton's case). That same offseason, the Pirates re-signed Jason Grilli for two years and $7MM and installed him as their closer, shipping Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox for Mark Melancon, who settled in as Grilli's setup man, and three other players. Grilli and Melancon were the two most important parts of a terrific Pirates bullpen in 2013. Hanrahan, who made $7.04MM in his last year of arbitration, missed most of the season due to injury, and the Red Sox turned to Koji Uehara to replace him. Uehara, who had signed for $4.25MM plus a vesting option the previous offseason, was dominant.

The lesson here is clear: Get good relief pitchers, and don't overpay for closers. League cost five times as much as Uehara on the 2012-2013 offseason market. That should not have happened.

Let's look, then, at pitchers with at least ten saves in 2013 on this year's free agent market.

LaTroy Hawkins Rockies 1 year, $2.5MM, 2015 team option
Joe Nathan Tigers 2 years, $20MM, 2016 team option
Edward Mujica Red Sox 2 years, $9.5MM
Chris Perez Dodgers 1 year, $2.3MM plus incentives
Jose Veras Cubs 1 year, $4MM, 2015 team option
Joaquin Benoit Padres 2 years, $15.5MM, 2016 team/vesting option

These relievers don't all compare cleanly with last year's. Perez, for example, cited the Dodgers' chances of winning as a reason he signed with them, and it's possible he left some money on the table, either in the long term by not giving himself much of a chance to close, or in the short term. It's also not likely most teams approached the 41-year-old Hawkins as a good first choice for closer.

We should also mention Brian Wilson, who got no saves in 2013 but has a long history of closing — he received $10MM for 2014, plus a 2015 player option that will be worth at least $8.5MM. Perhaps the thread connecting this offseason's market and last is the Dodgers paying heavily for relievers, with League in 2012-2013 and Wilson this year. On the other end of the spectrum, there's also former Brewers closer John Axford, who received one year and $4.5MM from the Indians.

Broadly speaking, though, the difference between these two groups is clear. The market for generic closers seems to have shrunk dramatically, to about two years and $10MM, plus a team option. And that's in a free agent market where teams have had few qualms about paying heavily for other types of players. Many closer types are receiving less than anticipated. We guessed Benoit would receive two years and $16MM, which was close, but we also projected Nathan would receive two years and $26MM, and that Mujica would get three years and $21MM.

So what are the reasons for the change in the market? One is the number of young, cost-controlled closers. The Cardinals, for example, didn't bother to bring Mujica back, because they have flamethrowing youngster Trevor Rosenthal to replace him. In an era in which pitchers throw harder and harder and allow fewer runs than they once did, the archetypal closer skill set is no longer all that rare, and many teams can turn to a relatively cheap, cost-controlled pitcher to do the closing. Pitchers like Aroldis Chapman, Greg Holland, Rex Brothers, Danny Farquhar, Steve Cishek and Kenley Jansen all fall into this category. The Diamondbacks, for example, traded for Addison Reed, who will become their closer; the White Sox will probably just replace Reed with Nate Jones. The emergence of the hard-throwing Jones effectively means there's one less team that might be looking for a closer on the free agent market.

Another part of the equation, though, is that teams are looking for good pitchers, rather than pitchers with closing experience. Soriano, for example, is a good reliever, but he produced 1.5 fWAR in 2011 and 2012 combined. The Nationals overpaid significantly. So did the Phillies, for example, when they signed Jonathan Papelbon to a $50MM contract prior to the 2012 season.

It doesn't look like the Papelbon contract will repeat itself anytime soon. Closers have always been more fungible than many fans think, and they're especially fungible now, when many teams seem to be producing a 96-MPH-throwing reliever at a rate of about one a year. And anyway, closers change — of the 37 pitchers who recorded at least ten saves in 2012, only 22 did it again in 2013. If a team signs a closer to a four-year contract, particularly if the pitcher is moving further into his 30s, chances are he won't still be the closer when the contract ends. This year's free agent contracts reflect that. Teams aren't over-committing, either in dollars or in years.

East Notes: Red Sox, Orioles, Mets

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If the Red Sox don't re-sign Stephen Drew, they'll likely go into the 2014 season with Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field and Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, and that will be a gamble, given their inexperience, WEEI.com's Alex Speier writes. To find a World Series-winning team that had rookies as their primary starters at center field and shortstop, one has to go all the way back to the 1959 Dodgers, with Don Demeter and Maury Wills. That doesn't prove much, of course. A few decades' worth of World Series-winning teams isn't a huge sample size, and as Speier points out, the Red Sox have recently blended in young up-the-middle players in Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie while still having very successful teams. But there may be value in having stability at tough defensive positions. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

Tanaka & Yankees Notes: Workload, A-Rod

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Masahiro Tanaka's workload is a serious concern, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan writes. In the past five seasons, while pitching mostly in his early 20s, Tanaka has averaged more than 113 pitches per start, more than any pitcher in the U.S. big leagues during that period. MLB executives adore Tanaka's stuff (and, presumably, the results he's gotten in Japan), however, so they ignore warning signs about his pitch count. Those pitch counts don't mean it's certain that Tanaka will fall apart once he signs a big contract, of course — Passan points out that Yu Darvish also had an intense workload in Japan, and he's done just fine in the states. Here's more on Tanaka and the Yankees.

  • The Yankees' offseason has been characterized by a need to wait for Alex Rodriguez and for Tanaka, writes NJ.com's Brendan Kuty. A decision on the status of Rodriguez's appeal could soon arrive, and once the Yankees know, they'll have a much clearer idea of their 2014 budget. That, in turn, will help clarify their pursuit of Tanaka.
  • If the Yankees sign Tanaka, they'll go past the $189MM luxury-tax threshold regardless of what happens with Rodriguez, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. In the previous two offseasons, the Yankees "operated as if they were in luxury-tax jail," passing even on the relatively inexpensive Russell Martin and avoiding big-ticket players like Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton. Now, after missing the playoffs with an injury-riddled roster in 2013, the Yankees appear prepared to exceed the $189MM threshold. They need Tanaka "desperately," given their current rotation.
  • MLB teams' pursuit of Tanaka will be "insane," writes FanGraphs' Tony Blengino. Not only is Tanaka an excellent pitcher, he's only 25, which means he could be a better investment than most free agents, who are older. Also, unlike other Japanese talents, he's essentially a free agent. He doesn't have to deal with the posting system from previous years, in which Japanese teams, rather the players, reaped the benefits of the free market. Finally, teams have plenty of money to spend.

Quick Hits: Defenses, Twins, Santana

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Defense is often a secondary consideration in evaluations of teams' offseason moves, but it's an important one. ESPN's Mark Simon has written about each team's offseason from a defensive perspective (American League, National League). In the American League, the Yankees have downgraded at second base with the departure of Robinson Cano, and Brian McCann isn't Chris Stewart's equal at stopping basestealers, says Simon. Jacoby Ellsbury should help in the outfield, however. The Athletics, meanwhile, should benefit from the additions of Craig Gentry and Nick Punto.

In the National League, the Marlins' infield defense should take a step backward after the additions of Garrett Jones, Rafael Furcal and Casey McGehee. The Cardinals, meanwhile, figure to have upgraded with the additions of Peter Bourjos and Mark Ellis, and with Matt Carpenter moving from second base to third. Here are more notes from throughout the big leagues.

  • The Twins could be a surprisingly strong team in 2014, ESPN's Christina Kahrl argues. Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes should improve the rotation, she says, if only because the Twins' starters struggled so much last year. Also, Joe Mauer's move to first could spare the toll on his body and create more playing time for Josmil Pinto, who could make an impact on offense. Miguel Sano, who hit 35 home runs in the minor leagues in 2013, could make his debut as well.
  • The Twins have not offered Johan Santana a contract, Darren Wolfson of 1500ESPN.com tweets. Santana does have offers in hand from other teams. The Twins are still interested in Santana, however. The former Cy Young winner will likely receive a minor-league deal.

West Notes: Tanaka, Diamondbacks, Street, Benoit

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The Diamondbacks are interested in flying to Japan to meet with Masahiro Tanaka, although they have not yet scheduled a meeting, Nick Piecoro of AZCentral.com reports. The Diamondbacks have been connected to Tanaka and other top free-agent starters, although Piecoro notes that it will be tricky for them to outbid the Yankees and other big-market teams for Tanaka's services. Here are more notes from the West divisions.

  • The Yankees are the favorites to get Tanaka, but he would provide such a big boost to the Angels' rotation that he could change the complexion of the AL West if he heads to Anaheim, Troy Renck of the Denver Post writes (on Sulia).
  • The futures of Padres relievers Joaquin Benoit and Huston Street are intertwined, the San Diego Union-Tribune's Bill Center writes. The Padres have signed Benoit to a two-year deal that pays him $6MM in 2014 and $8MM in 2015, with an $8MM option for 2016 and a $1.5MM buyout. The option vests, however, if Benoit finishes 55 games in 2015, which would only happen if he were the closer for almost the entire season. Street, meanwhile, will be paid $7MM in 2014, with a $7MM option for 2015. Street will close for the Padres in 2014, but it's unclear what will happen after that. "Huston has done it very well for a long time. Benoit has done it for four years. Huston is a pro. Nothing changes here," says Padres GM Josh Byrnes. "We do have a decision for 2015. Nothing is guaranteed for 2015."

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