7:26pm: After throwing a 2-inning simulated game today, Santana may still wait a day or two before choosing a destination, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com (Twitter links, in Spanish).
The Braves are indeed very interested, with financial concerns the main limitation. Meanwhile, the Royals have put in a call on Santana. The Blue Jays and Orioles have standing offers out, Rojas adds.
2:21pm: O'Brien hears from a person connected to the Royals that the Braves may now be making a run at Santana (Twitter link). In addition to Medlen's injury, Brandon Beachy left today's Spring Training start with biceps tightness.
10:17am: The Braves haven't completely ruled out Santana in the event of a serious Medlen injury, writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman, but the financial and draft pick costs are definite factors. Atlanta would very much like to strengthen its crop of top prospects, and sacrificing the No. 26 selection in the draft would go against that thinking.
9:19am: Over the weekend it was reported that Ervin Santana has completely changed course and is now seeking a one-year deal with an eye toward a lucrative multi-year deal next offseason. With one-year offers of $13MM plus incentives and $14MM without incentives from the Orioles and Blue Jays, respectively, there appear to be a pair of clear favorites for Santana.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports provides some updates on the Santana sweepstakes this morning, noting that the Blue Jays' players are lobbying for Santana to come to Toroto. Santana has many friends on the club, including countrymen Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Reyes. One source told Rosenthal that several Jays players got together and texted Santana a picture of themselves holding a poster that read, "Come to Toronto."
One potentially game-changing factor to the Santana market could be the severity of the injury to Braves right-hander Kris Medlen, who left Sunday's Spring Training game with a forearm strain. David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution touched on the topic this morning, wondering if the Braves could consider expanding their budget to bring him into the fold. Rosenthal writes that the Braves will get the results of an MRI on Medlen today. The draft pick loss wouldn't be as big for the Braves as some teams around the league, as Atlanta would surrender the No. 26 selection after already having received the No. 32 selection for losing Brian McCann to free agency. That forfeiture, however, would be the most significant of the specific teams mentioned in Rosenthal's piece.
Rosenthal also has some specifics on recent offers made to Santana; the Orioles' last three-year offer was believed to be in the $27MM range, while the three-year offer from the Twins was in the $30-33MM range. That offer was still on the table as of last night. However, as Rosenthal notes, Santana could earn nearly that much over the next two seasons by taking $14MM or so in 2014 and receiving a qualifying offer following the season, as next year's QO could jump to the $15-16MM range.
In other words, AA has to get the deal done since it’s practically fallen in his lap or his team isn’t going to be happy.
Not to mention the fans, who have grown rather tiresome at the inactivity this offseason.
One can always take a nap.
One problem, it’s Santana’s decision to make
One problem, it’s Santana’s decision to make
Pull the trigger Wren on either Santana or Samardzija before one of the aforementioned AL clubs ink a deal. Prefer Samardzija over Santana, but Ervin looks like he has something to prove this season. Deal a prospect because both of these guys are worth 4/$50 million when comparing to today’s market value on veteran SP…imho.
The Cubs wanted a deal starting with either Heyward or JUp…no thanks
Plus I don’t think samardzija signs for 4/50 otherwise cubs would have locked him up on that deal months ago. I don’t think he is worth more. Sounds like he is looking for ace money for realistically being a 3/4 starter on a reasonable pitching staff
If you look at his second half from last year, you have to wonder if he’s even that.
Plus I don’t think samardzija signs for 4/50 otherwise cubs would have locked him up on that deal months ago. I don’t think he is worth more. Sounds like he is looking for ace money for realistically being a 3/4 starter on a reasonable pitching staff
I think it was more of a straight up proposition. And at this point, why not Heyward? I think the fact Heyward’s extension was the only one given by Wren to not cover a FA year indicates a run towards free agency is likely. With a thinning rotation, Shark may better help the Braves win over the next two years. Either way, I can see the Cubs throwing alot of money Heyward’s way in winter 2015.
The Cubs wanted a deal starting with either Heyward or JUp…no thanks
Sound like after taxes and incentives O’s have the best offer but Santana would rather play in Toronto. Should be interesting to see how this unfolds. He probably needs to make a decision quickly to get into some spring training games before the start of the regular season.
Jays have to do this, I think, for some baseball and some non-baseball reasons. With the inactivity this off-season and the aging core of the team, and now with said core openly (and kind of cutely) lobbying to sign the guy, they just have to do it for PR reasons. The owners can take it out of petty cash. Even if he bombs it doesn’t matter on a one-year deal. Some things are more important than value per dollar.
I suppose you’re right, but what more can the Jays do? You mentioned that you want to stick to a one-year deal, so the only way to provide further persuasion would be to up the offer. Are you suggesting $15M? $16M?Otherwise, it’s really up to Santana and what city/team he wants to play for, and lots of people are suggesting the O’s because of their grass field (compared to the Jays’ turf) and the fact that they’re a better overall team.
What does grass field have to do with a pitcher on a dirt mound?
What does grass field have to do with a pitcher on a dirt mound?
I believe the argument is that an artificial turf field is “faster” compared to grass, meaning that more ground balls ending up being base hits and extra base hits, which is obviously less favorable to a pitcher’s stats.
Good thing Santana is a flyball pitcher. Bad thing balls carry in Skydome
Well I’d say balls carry about equally in Rogers Centre (formerly SkyDome) and Camden Yards. So the difference still comes down to grounders. And on that front Camden wins (from a pitcher’s perspective).
I disagree. Just because they might be faster doesn’t make it harder to defend. There are much less variables like weird bounces and unexpected results from the lip of grass, etc. Outfielders who aren’t custom to the dome have to get use to bounces that could go over their head but that’s not an issue with the Jays team, it’s their advantage of knowing the surface.
“Weird bounces” and “unexpected results” are — by definition — rare events, and don’t make up for the number of extra hits and runs due to hard grounders that get by infielders and outfielders. Also, most outfielders — even visiting ones — know turf well enough to know how to play the bounce.
If I was him, I would be more interested in the Orioles superior defensive players. Either way, that is a plus for the O’s though.
Good thing Santana is a flyball pitcher. Bad thing balls carry in Skydome
I believe the argument is that an artificial turf field is “faster” compared to grass, meaning that more ground balls ending up being base hits and extra base hits, which is obviously less favorable to a pitcher’s stats.
What does grass field have to do with a pitcher on a dirt mound?
The Orioles are not a better overall team than the Blue Jays. According to Fangraphs, the Jays are expected to win more games, earn more WAR, and score more runs.
Really? Well since you seem to put so much stock on what Fangraphs has to say, what’s their prior projection accuracy (2013, 2012, 2011…)? How many wins did they project for the Jays last year, I wonder?
And how, exactly, can injuries factor into projections? Fangraphs is not a crystal ball.
Well projecting for injuries isn’t as far-fetched as you imply. Certain players (eh hem, Morrow) have a pattern of prior injury, and this prior history can be accounted for in whatever projection formula they use, just like any other observational data. Yes the Jays had a lot of injuries, but I don’t think injuries alone fully account for a year that fell so far below expectation.
Who said fangraphs was a crystal ball? No one.
But it certainly is better than the misguided and uneducated comments of many people with short term memory problems.
I put more stock in fangraphs projections than the miscellaneous banter of misguided commenters, especially when people consistently forget that all AL East teams are top 10-15 teams in the MLB.
Is it possible to have a no qualifying offer clause written into a contract you sign as a free agent?
No those are expressly forbidden in the CBA however, if Santana signs his contract at any point after opening day he will be ineligible for a QO as a player must be on the roster for a entire season to be eligible for a QO.
So you wont have him pitch for month, or so, in the Majors? Why make a big offer? Plus team is helping him out for future contract, and losing a pick.
I was not saying Santana or a signing team SHOULD do it, just that it is a POSSIBLE way for a player to avoid being subject to a QO. As far as I am aware this is the only legitimate way under the CBA for a player to insure he is not eligible to receive a QO at the end of the season.
Santana would love it, team loses out. Its a loop-hole but I doubt any Team would do it.
Santana would love it, team loses out. Its a loop-hole but I doubt any Team would do it.
When does the season officially start? When the Dodgers and D-backs play or when everyone else plays? If it’s when former then he could be in camp before the first game.
Agents aren’t allowed to include them into the contracts per the CBA, however handshake deals still exist, so there is a possibility of it.
In addition to not being allowed under the CBA, it’s unclear if it would even be possible. The contract would have expired by the time the anti-QO clause would be relevant. But yeah, I’m pretty sure the Pirates and AJ Burnett had a handshake agreement last year. It happens.
Just a friendly heads up the the n in Toronto is missing in line 6
Funny enough most native Torontonians don’t pronounce the final “t”, so if his typo was “Torono”, it wouldn’t have been as bad!
As a native Torontonian I always pronounce the T and everyone I know pronounces the T.
Please take the time to read and comprehend what I actually wrote. If you look at my comment more carefully, you’ll see that I didn’t say that Torontonians don’t pronounce the N. I said that they don’t pronounce the final T.
Even if Santana pitches as well as he did last year how much does he think he’s going to get if he only takes a one year deal now?
If he’s going to ask for 100M again, that would still be ridiculous in my eyes. If he pitches well next year, in my opinion, he could get a 4/48, but if he doesn’t pitch like last year and pitches worse than it’s below that amount.
I guess if he took the Twins offer than that is a good chunk he’d be missing out on, but that’s if he pitches just as well as last year. He’ll have to bet on producing the same (or better) otherwise he’ll lose even more money. Could make a 3/33 look like an overpay if he’s the bad version of himself.
If he took the Jays offer, he would need to make just $9.5/year over the following 2 to break even with the Twins offer. And that wouldn’t require the signing team to give up any picks. Even a pretty poor year should be able to get him that.
Also, he’s said he wants to play for a team with a powerful offense (presumably to get his W total up), so that would put the Twins in a bad spot compared to Baltimore and Toronto.
Looking at the numbers that are out there, I don’t see how the Twins offer makes sense for him unless he has very little faith in his abilities at this point in his career.
Exactly, it wouldn’t take much for him to make it up and more. The issue is if he’s bad. Obviously he’s not going to think that’s going to happen or is willing to gamble on it at least.
As a fan of the team, I don’t want him because I’d rather have Gibson or Meyer in the rotation. Having Santana would start to block prospects such as those two and maybe others.
I wouldn’t call Santana a block to the prospects.. If we signed him pelphry and correia would be the block… Plus the twins play in a pitcher friendly park, in a weaker division that could help the decision to the Twins
The Twins offer makes perfect sense for him simply because it is guaranteed money. Obviously, no MLB team has been willing to meet his asking price to date so he will have settle for something less than he thinks he is worth. One year at $14 million and a shot a free agency next year may work out very well for him – but the operative word is MAY.
On the other hand the operative word for the Twins offer is GUARANTEE. The cold, hard truth is that pitchers are always susceptible to arm injuries especially in the shoulder and elbow and, if that happens, Santana may never seen a $33 million pay day again. Pitchers like other players decline with age and the baseball marketplace is a finicky one. Santana may indeed want to gamble on having a healthy, successful year and that free agency after this season will net him the money he thinks he deserves. But, taking a 3-year $33 million guarantee at this stage of his career makes perfect sense for him even if with a lot of faith in his abilities.
If he took the Jays offer, he would need to make just $9.5/year over the following 2 to break even with the Twins offer. And that wouldn’t require the signing team to give up any picks. Even a pretty poor year should be able to get him that.
Also, he’s said he wants to play for a team with a powerful offense (presumably to get his W total up), so that would put the Twins in a bad spot compared to Baltimore and Toronto.
Looking at the numbers that are out there, I don’t see how the Twins offer makes sense for him unless he has very little faith in his abilities at this point in his career.
Go Toroto…Damn N’s.
My Neighbor Toroto
My Neighbor Toroto
That offer “was still be on the table”?
Time change man…. It gets Steve Adams same as the rest of us it appears.
Time change man…. It gets Steve Adams same as the rest of us it appears.
Went from “was said to be” to “was still” and apparently didn’t make a seamless transition, haha. Thanks for the catch.
Went from “was said to be” to “was still” and apparently didn’t make a seamless transition, haha. Thanks for the catch.
c’mon Santana, what other team has a dynamic leadoff hitter like Reyes and a 3-4 punch of Bautista and Encarnacion? Not mention guys like Lind, Lawrie, Rasmus and Cabrera aren’t pushovers either.
Markakis, Davis, Jones, Wieters, Hardy, Cruz and Machado… O’s lineup is just as good.
Not really. Davis, Jones and Cruz were above average hitters last year. Machado, Hardy and McClouth were league average while Wieters and Markakis were below average.
Bautista, Encarnacion, Lind, Rasmus, Reyes and Navarro were all above average hitters last year while Lawrie was above average once he had a sufficient amount of rehab at-bats after his second injury. Cabrera is a question mark, but lets see what he can do without a tumor in his spine lol.
I’d say the Jays line-up is much better and the O’s will definitely have to rely on another amazing season from Davis. He cooled down considerably after the first half, but he’ll still be a tough out.
The O’s had a higher team OPS, wOBP and wRC+ than the Jays in 2013. Not to mention outpacing them in the traditional offensive categories, Runs, RBI, HR.
99 wRC+ compared to a 100 wRC+ and .320 wOBA compared to a .323 wOBA. Considering the Jays lost Reyes, Bautista, Rasmus, Lawrie and Cabrera for a significant amount of time, its not surprising. We also had one of the worst hitters in baseball last season in JP Arencibia (replaced with Navarro).
The O’s had all their top players play a full season, and yet the overall team numbers were comparable considering the amount of injures the Jays had…
Expecting Reyes to play a full season seems very unrealistic to me since he has only played 1 full season in the last 5. Lind also had his first productive season in the last 4 years last year so both teams may be due for some regression. Either way the fact is the O’s were a better offensive team in 2013.
They definitely were, no getting around that. And yes, Reyes has had his fair share of injuries, but last year’s was simply a fluke. If he can play at least 140 or so games, I’d be happy with that.
considering he’s averaged 110 over his last 5 seasons, and he didn’t take a dip in the fountain of youth this offseason, I’d assume you would be plenty happy with 140
They definitely were, no getting around that. And yes, Reyes has had his fair share of injuries, but last year’s was simply a fluke. If he can play at least 140 or so games, I’d be happy with that.
You can’t use injury as an excuse when you rely on players who have a history of injury on your roster
The only player with a major history of injuries heading into 2013 would have been Reyes, and he played a full season in 2012 and a decent amount of games in 2010-2011.
Jose Bautista and his wrist injury?
He came back fully healthy in 2013 and was 100% in spring training that year. His hip injury was completely unrelated.
You can’t use injury as an excuse when you rely on players who have a history of injury on your roster
Reyes was hurt??? Shocking!
Except Markakis played injured, Mclouth is replaced by Lough who is better, Wieters had a down year, and they are replacing their DH with Nelson Cruz, and 2nd base was a circus being replaced most likely by Flaherty who hit 10 homeruns in 85 games and had a .833 OPS in the second half and could hit 20 homeruns over a full season.
The O’s offense is just as good if not better.
I think your retort is is bit ‘homish’
Davis OPS 1.004 WAR 6.3
Cruz OPS .833 WAR 2.0
Jones OPS .811 WAR 4.4
Machado OPS .833 WAR 6.5
Hardy OPS .738 WAR 3.7
Weiters OPS .704 WAR 0.4
Markakis OPS .685 WAR -0.1
Encarnacion OPS .904 WAR 4.0
Bautista OPS .856 WAR 4.1
Rasmus OPS .840 WAR 4.8
Lind OPS .854 WAR 1.9
Reyes OPS .780 WAR 2.5
Lawrie OPS .712 WAR 2.3
Cabrrera OPS .682 WAR -0.1
Very comparable batting wise and the O’s have a bit higher WAR because they play some of the best defense in the league
WAR takes into account defense and I’m talking specifically about offense (wRC+ and wOBA).
I acknowledged the defense in WAR because as a pitcher the defense of the guys behind you should matter. Especially when you are taking a one year contract to get more money the next year
I see. Not to be nit-picky, but you also have to consider that WAR is cumulative. Many players like Bautista, Reyes and Rasmus’s WAR would have been much higher had they not got injured.
I acknowledged the defense in WAR because as a pitcher the defense of the guys behind you should matter. Especially when you are taking a one year contract to get more money the next year
Well, even if you use oWar specifically Machado and Hardy were 2.5 and 2.6 respectively so to say that they were “league average” is a bit ridiculous. I’ll give you Markakis had the worst offensive year of his career. And as far as Weiters goes, what are you comparing him to do be “below average”. Below average offensive player, yes, but below average catcher no way. I’ll bet dollars to donuts that Weiters outperforms your catcher this year offensively, and blows them out of the water defensively (although that’s not as relevant to our conversation)
also people forget that Markakis had his worst year ever because he was dealing with nagging injuries all year and STILL played through them. We will see the real Markakis this year. He is bigger and looks healthier. Also is tearing the cover off the ball so far this spring.
Machado and Hardy had OPS+ of 99 and 97. That takes into account their ballpark and then compares them to league average of 100. They were both slightly below average offensive players compared to league average hitters such as Brian Dozier, Alberto Callaspo and Russell Martin.
I know exactly what OPS+ is. I didn’t use it for several reasons:
A) It is not as complicated as WAR and oWar, but I believe it to have many limitations and thus use oWAR as a better fit for this conversation. (OPS+ weights slg % and obp the same and tends to skew ballparks too far to the extremes)
B) Another one of the weaknesses of using OPS+ which specifically applies here, and I tried to bring up in my previous point about Weiters, is that it holds all positions equal. Meaning, that in it’s eyes, production out of David Ortiz and Yadier Molina are weighted the same and said to be “held against league average”. Well, league average offensive production from catchers, short shops, 2 base are all VASTLY different from league average production out of DH, 1st base, or outfield positions. Hence, calling JJ Hardy a slightly below average SS is stupid, he was one of the top 3 offensive SS’s in the game last year.
I can’t believe he thought machado was average tho.. 6.5 war…
I’m not sure about the rest, but I know that Machado OPS is way off. His OPS was .746 last year.
Your right.. I made that post at work and must have copied Cruz down twice
Orioles scored 45 more runs than Jays last year, so they weren’t really that close. Even with a pretty significant cool down from Davis, Orioles should have the better offense. And adding Cruz to the mix is only going to make that more likely.
BTW, McClouth isn’t an Oriole anymore.
Runs scored is not a very good argument as it is dependent on other factors like opposing defense. Their wRC+ and wOBA numbers were very comparable even though the Jays sustained many significant injuries.
Toronto and Baltimore pretty much play the same schedule.
Not really. If I recall there was an article which compared the scheduling differences among teams and the Jays had a slightly harder schedule than the O’s. In either case, runs scored his still a flawed stat.
Yeah, Jays had a slightly harder schedule because the Orioles had a better record than the Jays last year. And the Orioles don’t have to play the Orioles. And the Jays don’t have to play the Jays.
Actually, of all the stats; Runs Scored is probably one of the few that isn’t flawed. Because at the end of the day, that’s the offenses’ job; to score runs. It may not be the best predictive stat, but it’s certainly not flawed. The one thing you may want to adjust for is park factor, but the difference between RC and OPaCY is not that great there.
Yeah, Jays had a slightly harder schedule because the Orioles had a better record than the Jays last year. And the Orioles don’t have to play the Orioles. And the Jays don’t have to play the Jays.
Actually, of all the stats; Runs Scored is probably one of the few that isn’t flawed. Because at the end of the day, that’s the offenses’ job; to score runs. It may not be the best predictive stat, but it’s certainly not flawed. The one thing you may want to adjust for is park factor, but the difference between RC and OPaCY is not that great there.
Not really. If I recall there was an article which compared the scheduling differences among teams and the Jays had a slightly harder schedule than the O’s. In either case, runs scored his still a flawed stat.
Toronto and Baltimore pretty much play the same schedule.
I would easily take the O’s lineup over the Jays, and most teams in baseball.
I wouldn’t. Jays when healthy may have best lineup in baseball.
lol… the my line up is better than yours argument after the season the Jays had is ridiculous, injuries aside. Look I’m a Jay’s fan and there’s all kinds of reasons to speculate that the Jays will go back to form and be a top 5 offensive power again. But your preaching to the choir by highlighting individual stars when team’s like the O’s have had a proven, stronger line up for the past 2 seasons (Injuries & depth do in fact matter).
The numbers were very comparable even though the Jays sustained a number of significant injuries while the O’s had none.
I have to congratulate you both on this discussion. This was one of the best debates without anyone getting stupid. I was reading the back and forth and agreeing with both of you. Great job. The internet comment section is usually so volatile, this was a nice change. Go Jays
A corner outfielder with an OPS of 682 kind of is a pushover.
Joey bats … AKA Jose Bautista!
c’mon Santana, what other team has a dynamic leadoff hitter like Reyes and a 3-4 punch of Bautista and Encarnacion? Not mention guys like Lind, Lawrie, Rasmus and Cabrera aren’t pushovers either.
GM’s are supposed to do what’s best for teams Present and Future. He signs a 1 year deal, you lose a pick 1st or 2nd. I’m putting QO again on him, especially if he does well. Other teams wont worry about pick, with 2 consistent seasons.
Best time to put a QO on is 1 year deals.
GM’s are supposed to do what’s best for teams Present and Future. He signs a 1 year deal, you lose a pick 1st or 2nd. I’m putting QO again on him, especially if he does well. Other teams wont worry about pick, with 2 consistent seasons.
Best time to put a QO on is 1 year deals.
I am just hoping the Orioles drop out of all this excitement.
We really don’t need him!
I agree with you here. I don’t really see where Santana fits for the O’s. That would assure that one of Britton or Norris is gone and one goes to the pin. Both have looked very good this spring…. though there is the age old adage… you can never have enough pitching
I agree with you here. I don’t really see where Santana fits for the O’s. That would assure that one of Britton or Norris is gone and one goes to the pin. Both have looked very good this spring…. though there is the age old adage… you can never have enough pitching
A) Can never have enough pitching, Lefty, B) Would you rather have Santana or Norris as your number five?, C) This opens up many trade possibilities, with the opportunity for Duquette to trade some of these pieces for prospects so that they won’t miss the draft picks they’ve given up.
With the way Chen and Miggy Gonzo have throw so far, with Tillman, Jimenez, and Ervin, that is a formidable rotation, and with that lineup, just think of the damage they could do. Britton, Norris, maybe even Steve J. could be moved for prospects. The Braves are said to be on the market for pitching and Britton’s name was mentioned in Olney’s column. The Orioles’ bullpen is strong, the bench is strong, the starting lineup is strong and Showalter has a plethora of choices. This team has very qiuetly become loaded.
C) It really doesn’t open up the possibility, it pretty much mandates it. Britton is out of options and once Patton gets back someone’s going to have to go somewhere.
I didn’t mean that it was possible they would make a trade, just that when they do, there are a lot of different possibilities for the trade.
Yeah, I hear you.
Well, whatever will be will be.
A) Can never have enough pitching, Lefty, B) Would you rather have Santana or Norris as your number five?, C) This opens up many trade possibilities, with the opportunity for Duquette to trade some of these pieces for prospects so that they won’t miss the draft picks they’ve given up.
With the way Chen and Miggy Gonzo have throw so far, with Tillman, Jimenez, and Ervin, that is a formidable rotation, and with that lineup, just think of the damage they could do. Britton, Norris, maybe even Steve J. could be moved for prospects. The Braves are said to be on the market for pitching and Britton’s name was mentioned in Olney’s column. The Orioles’ bullpen is strong, the bench is strong, the starting lineup is strong and Showalter has a plethora of choices. This team has very qiuetly become loaded.
And he’s really not that good. His career ERA+ is 100. With all the Orioles other options, how much of an upgrade would this really be? I’m starting to think it may be better to save the money and then have a little more financial flexibility if you need to make a mid season trade.
Bud Norris is awful and a bad fit for Camden. As was Ubaldo until May of last year. I’d say they could use a consistent league average arm.
If you want a consistent league average arm, then you don’t want Santana. He averages out to league average, but he has huge swings from one year to the next. He’s not consistent at all.
I would take Ervin over Bud, but I’m not sure I want to give up on Britton, Johnson, or Matusz as starters just yet. Nor do I think he’s that much of an improvement that I would want picking him no precluding the O’s from doing something in June/July.
I am just hoping the Orioles drop out of all this excitement.
We really don’t need him!
Stay away from this guy, I say. For one thing, it’s dangerous for players to start pushing the GM to get a deal done. That’s getting visible with the Jays now and that could mean dissent later if either a deal doesn’t happen or if it does and then goes bad. Management must not only be in control, they must appear to be in control.
Secondly, I don’t think a one-year deal can contribute to team unity, not with a high profile, high cost contract. If the team does not meet expectations, how many current Jays will be gone next year? Lots, especially with some of them making such a big pitch for the Santana contract!
And thirdly, this public bidding for a player shows the player to be very player-centric and not team-centric. If he stumbles then fans will be all over the Jays management and on the player. That’s a poison thing.
Pull the bid! Walk away. Show loyalty to your own players and prospects. We’re more likely to root for our own than for a hired gun with only next year’s contract on his mind.
I hate to tell you, no matter what the players say in front of a microphone, their next contract is always the biggest thing on their mind. You want to know why AA is trying to sign him? Because his job is the first thing on his mind.
If AA has his job on his mind, he will stay away from Santana. There are greater dangers for a GM than not making the playoffs. I do agree about contracts being on everybody’s mind but most players have the good graces to not make it so obvious.
With not just one but possibly 2 starting rotation spots needing to be filled, it won’t be long in to the season when the lack of Jays rotation depth is going to quickly reveal itself once again.
The argument that you shouldn’t go after a pitcher for 1 year is absurd especially when your banking on your team’s depth just to make up the back end of the rotation. Sometimes you need a 1 year bandaid solution while your young guns continue to prep in the minors.
Signing Santana could also take some of the stress & spotlight away from guys like Dickey & Morrow which is a good thing. Couple this with the fact that the Jays made that deal last year to bring in top of the rotation arm Josh Johnson (Without him, that deal wouldn’t have happened)… his empty seat has yet to be filled.
The Jays will probably trade half the prospects next year to rebuild the team. I don’t buy the stress on Dickey and Morrow argument. If they can’t perform under stress then that should be exposed. If you use the stress argument then make sure Kawasaki is on the team. He seems to keep things loose and players motivated. And the argument against going after a pitcher for one year is not absurd. We may not agree but our arguments are not absurd.
While some of the earmarked Josh Johnson money has been spent due to already signed contract raises and arbitration raises, it is a true shame that this Josh Johnson void has not been filled. As Boras said, this is an issue that goes up several levels over AA’s pay grade, and Rogers will have some explaining to do if things do not go right.
“There are greater dangers for a GM than not making the playoffs.”
Not for this GM, this year. If the Jays miss the playoffs, AA’s a goner.
Ervin Santana is the new Tanaka.
minor, medlen, and beachy are all suspect at best at this point. All have some injury problems. We almost have no choice but to go after Santana
yea kind of stinks. i’m not a big fan of santana. minor seems like its not as serious, but he still might not be available at the start of the season. atl’s gone from having a really solid rotation to being seriously worried about where their innings are going to come from. its crazy how much can change in a week.
No choice to give up a 1st rd pick and close, if not, $14MM? Minor’s injury is not serious (should be back by 2nd week in April), and we don’t know the MRI results on Medlen yet. Considering how Medlen has been the best 2nd half SP in MLB the last 2 years, why would we dump money on Santana? Alex Wood, Teheran, David Hale, and Freddy Garcia, until Minor returns. Then Beachy/Medlen at some point thereafter, not including Gavin Floyd in May/June. Not the best rotation to start the season, but still looks better than some teams.
It would be in Santana’s best interest to sign with Atlanta over Baltimore or Toronto. Aside from benefiting from being in the NL, Santana has for his career been a pitcher that lived and died by the HR ball. The Rodgers Center and Camden are 2 of the best HR hitters parks in the MLB, #3 and #4 respectively. Santana would have better chance of putting together another solid season and cashing in next offseason in Atlanta than in the homer prone AL east.
yea, im thinking the same thing. best defensive ss in baseball and a very good defensive outfield… all in a fairly neutral park in the national league. it’d defintiely make sense if he wants to build his value.
Santana is not a major fly ball guy any more. He had that bad year a couple years ago and adjusted his repertoire. Now throws sinkers mostly.
Santana hasn’t thrown a sinker since they implemented Pitch/fx in 2007. His 2013 GB% was a career high but was still only 46%. Santana is not GB sinker baller, he never has been and he probably never will be.
Braves pitchers channeling their inner-Mike Hampton!
Santana has gone from NO WAY! to a must sign in a matter of 24 hours.
It just dumfounds me that a guy like Ervin Santana is getting all this hype. What has he done.
He’s available. He also had a better ERA+ than any Braves starter last year. In the AL. Including all the Braves starters that are hurt.
He takes the ball every fifth day. Right now that looks pretty good in Atlanta.
LOL. Sad, but true.
There is almost literally nothing else available, so if you need pitching, you don’t really have much choice. There isn’t any hype. There’s just demand.
Last year Santana threw 211 IP and had an ERA of 3.24 and xFIP of 3.69. He would have ranked 2nd in IP and xFIP and 1st in ERA out of the 7 Jays SP with at least 10 starts last year.
His 4 year average is 210 IP, ERA 3.87 and xFIP of 4.08. This would have ranked 1st in ERA, 2nd in IP and 3rd in xFIP for Jays SP last year.
Braves would miss the draft pick, but Santana had great success in KC with a big-ish park with great OF defense, and the Braves fit a similar mold so maybe he’d have the same kind of success here with what could be a great offense behind him. Not quite a long shot but not something I’d bet on either.
The fact that Ervin Santana’s agents were ever looking for close to Greinke money is laughable. How many people bought Greinke jerseys when he went to LA? Now think about how many people would buy Ervin Santana jerseys ever haha
Carlos Sanatana, the musician, has a big following in ATL. They would buy them, especially if Ervin would don a guitar in fan photos.
I think the Braves would consider a move like this if it was for more than one year. I dont see them paying him 14m and a draft pick for a one year rental…. Even if he agreed to 2 years, not sure the Braves need him for 2 years. But again that depends if pitchers are healthy next year.
A year in the National League and he will get a Homer Bailey contract next year. He will look like a true ace in the NL with those AL-stats.
Santana it is on a 1-yr. deal…sweeeeeet!!!