Reds starter Homer Bailey will undergo surgery tomorrow on his right forearm to repair a flexor mass tendon tear, the club announced on Twitter. He is expected to be ready in time for the spring, according to a report from C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer, who says the injury has been deemed a similar but less-severe version of that which afflicted what recently-dealt reliever Jonathan Broxton.
Needless to say, this is not how the 28-year-old — and, even less so, his team — hoped to see this season end. Bailey inked a six-year, $105MM extension before the 2014 campaign, a significant investment for a mid-market club that has already locked up several core players and had to choose carefully in making commitments to its best arms.
After a rough start to 2014, Bailey had settled in and begun to produce at the level that was expected when he inked his new deal. On the year, he owns a 3.71 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 to go with a career-best 50.6% groundball rate.
While any arm surgery is cause for concern for a pitcher, this particular injury and procedure do not appear to be as momentous as a UCL replacement. (If Bailey is expected to be prepared for the start of Spring Training, that would imply a recovery time of not more than six months.) Of course, forearm issues can be precursors to more serious injuries to the elbow and shoulder, so Cincinnati will surely handle its high-priced starter with care.
yet another young arm bites the dust….yipes, someone should really look into this epidemic.
Two words. Dusty Baker. Hes got a bad habit of destroying young pitchers arms. Its only a matter of time before his workload catches up to them.
Here are the innings pitched numbers for Homer Bailey under Dusty Baker:
2008 36.1
2009 113.1
2010 109.0
2011 132.0
2012 208.0
2013 209.0
Only twice did Baker ever let Bailey throw as many as 200 innings, and that didn’t happen until Bailey was already 26 years old. If Baker went any softer on him, Bailey would be sealed up in bubble wrap.
You do realize that innings doesn’t account for pitch count right? 5 innings at the cost of 103 pitches isn’t going to show up on that stat. Furthermore the years you listed as him going over 200 he made 33 and 32 starts. In 2011 he made 22 starts, 2010 19, and 2009 20. To assume baker “protected” him isn’t the truth. Bailey didn’t pitch in a full season up until 2012. Didn’t even come close to 30. Baker does have a bad habit of ruining arms. Woods, Prior most notably.
Cool, sure, let’s talk pitch counts.
Baker killed Mark Prior’s arm, no doubt there. Here is Mark Prior’s 2003 season, with the number of times he exceeded 120 pitches:
2003 33 starts 10 times over 120 pitches (high 133)
That’s awful, nearly one start in three that Baker let Prior throw at least 120 pitches that season. He actually topped 130 *four* times, and all at the very end of the season.
Now let’s see how badly he treated Bailey:
2008 8 starts 0 times over 120 pitches
2009 20 starts 0 times over 120 pitches
2010 20 starts 2 times over 120 pitches (high 121)
2011 22 starts 0 starts over 120 pitches
2012 34 starts 0 starts over 120 pitches
2013 32 starts 3 starts over 120 pitches (high 125)
So there you go. In 136 starts under Dusty Baker’s management, Homer Bailey threw at least 120 pitches only five times. That means Bailey hit that level half as many times across six years as Prior did in a single season, and he never came close to Prior’s high of 133 pitches in a game.
Baker didn’t overwork Bailey, not in terms of innings or pitches thrown, and there’s nothing to suggest he’s to blame for Bailey’s forearm injury.
2009 in 20 games and 113 inning Homer Bailey had a 2014 pitch count, That’s 100.7 pitches per start. Age 23.
2010 in 19 games and 109 innings he had 1934 pitches. That’s 101.79 pitches per start. He was 24
2011 in 22 games and 132 innings he had 2106 pitched. That’s 95.7272 per start at 25
2012, 33 starts for 208 innings for 3334 and that’s 101.03 per start at 26.
2013, 32 games, 209 innings for 3292. That’s 102.875 at 27.
Going over 120 a few times won’t kill your arm dude. ROUTINELY pitching over 100 pitches over the course of your season will. It’s nice to skew facts in your favor but the truth is the truth. Dusty baker has rode Baileys arm since he made the jump to the bigs.
“It’s nice to skew facts in your favor but the truth is the truth.”
What an enjoyable conversation this is…
You cherry picked Kershaw to make your point, but I can do the same. At age 23, Justin Verlander averaged 99.1 pitches per start, one and a half behind Bailey, but did it through 10 additional starts. At age 24, Verlander averaged 104.8 pitches, three *more* than Bailey, and through 13 additional starts. At age 25, Verlander was at 106.9 (fifth most in baseball), putting him at a tremendous 11 pitches ahead of Bailey and again through 11 more starts.
Despite this workload, which has far exceeded Bailey’s, Justin Verlander has never missed a start in his ten year career and three times led the American League in innings pitched.
David Price, same thing – he averaged 108 pitches a start through ages 24-26 and has never been hurt. Felix Hernandez, also the same – he debuted as a *teenager* and averaged 102 pitches in a dozen starts. He’s started at least thirty games ever year since. There’s no shortage of healthy workhorses Bailey’s age who have been worked much harder than he ever was.
As far as I’m concerned, this discussion is at an impasse and I’m certainly not interested in continuing it with you. If you want to believe that Dusty Baker is to blame, have at it.
You do realize that Verlander had a hiccup season at 25 right? Ks were down, walks were up, and his xFIP was at 4.7 with an ERA at 4.84. So that right there says that workload did catch up with him. Felix had a hiccup seasok in 2008 as well. His walks were up nearly 1 point, his GB% was down 8%, his xFIP was 3.83. That also says the workload caught up to him. The workload does catch up with pitchers. Tim Lincecum had dominant 4 year stretch and now the dude can’t seem to put it together; his command is wild. Dontrelle Willis. 4 great years of heavy workload he goes to the Tigers and command issues. You don’t have to miss starts to see effects of workload catching up with pitchers. Bailey could of pitched the entire season and had an xFIP in the 4 range and I’d support dusty worked his arm too much and that it caught up to him.
2009 in 20 games and 113 inning Homer Bailey had a 2014 pitch count, That’s 100.7 pitches per start. Age 23.
2010 in 19 games and 109 innings he had 1934 pitches. That’s 101.79 pitches per start. He was 24
2011 in 22 games and 132 innings he had 2106 pitched. That’s 95.7272 per start at 25
2012, 33 starts for 208 innings for 3334 and that’s 101.03 per start at 26.
2013, 32 games, 209 innings for 3292. That’s 102.875 at 27.
Going over 120 a few times won’t ruin an arm. Routinely going into the 100s on average will. 4 of the 5 seasons bailey had over 100 pitches per game average. He didn’t get there by Dusty limiting him. You don’t see young guys giving it 100 pitches on average especially in their first couple years it’s rare. Unless you’re dusty baker then there’s no reason your young live arm shouldn’t be able to go that much.
Look at Clayton Kershaw- rookie year 85 pitches a game in 22 games 21 starts 107 innings. Next season 31 games 30 starts his average was down to 98 in 171 innings. They limited him in innings and pitch count.
Overpay
That contract will haunt them.