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MLBTR Free Agent Prediction Contest Now Closed

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The MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Prediction Contest is now closed.  Over 4,600 people made picks!  In the coming weeks, MLBTR will publish a leaderboard for the results.

Further contest info:

  • After the window to make picks has closed, we’ll post a public leaderboard page so you can see who’s winning the contest as players sign with teams.  We’re going to use entrants’ full names on it.  So, if that concerns you, please do not enter the contest.  Entries with inappropriate names will be deleted.
  • We are also collecting email addresses, which I will use to notify winners.
  • If a player signs between now and the close of the contest, that player will be excluded from the contest.
  • After you submit your picks, you’ll receive an email from Google Forms.  In that email, you’ll see a button that allows you to edit your picks.
  • We will announce the winners on MLBTR once all 50 free agents have signed.  We will award $500 to first place, $300 to second place, and $100 to third place.  We will also be giving  one-year memberships to Trade Rumors Front Office for everyone who finishes in the top 15.  Winners must respond to an email within one week.
  • The winners of this contest will be declared on March 25th, 2026, and any unsigned players will be excluded from the competition.
  • Ties in the correct number of picks will be broken by summing up the rankings of the free agents of the correct picks and taking the lower total.  For example: Tim and Steve each get two picks correct.  Tim gets Kyle Tucker (#1 ranking) and Robert Suarez (#21 ranking) for a total of 22 points.  Steve gets Framber Valdez (#6) and Michael King (#14) for a total of 20 points.  Steve’s total is lower and he’s ahead of Tim for tiebreaker purposes.

If you have any further questions, ask us in the comment section of this post!

Mets Fielding Interest In Jeff McNeil

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The Mets are taking trade inquiries on Jeff McNeil, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. The veteran utilityman is recovering from thoracic outlet surgery, which complicates conversations with other clubs. McNeil’s agent, Paragon’s Garrett Parcell, told The Post’s Joel Sherman that he is expected to be full go for Spring Training.

McNeil is entering the final guaranteed season of the four-year, $50MM extension he signed during the 2023-24 offseason. He’s set for a $15.75MM salary and guaranteed a $2MM buyout on a matching club option for the ’27 season. It’s essentially a one-year, $17.75MM commitment. (An acquiring team would also owe him a $500K assignment bonus.) That’s more than he’d get on the open market coming off a .243/.335/.411 line and heading into his age-34 season. Something like a two-year deal in the $18-20MM range would be reasonable, but he wouldn’t command that kind of money on a one-year term.

At the time of the extension, McNeil was coming off a batting title. He hasn’t maintained those heights over the past three seasons. He combined for a slightly below-average .257/.323/.381 slash line between 2023-24. This year’s numbers were better but also came with injury questions. McNeil missed the first few weeks of the season with an oblique strain. He hit well over the next few months, running a .256/.348/.451 line with as many walks as strikeouts in nearly 400 plate appearances through the end of August. His bat wilted as the team collapsed in September, as he finished with a .187/.274/.240 showing in the season’s final month.

Playing through thoracic outlet syndrome offers an explanation for the late-season struggles. At the same time, that also raises questions about what teams can expect going into 2026. TOS generally isn’t as damaging for hitters as it can be for pitchers, yet some clubs could prefer to see McNeil play before taking on a notable chunk of money. His strikeout rate ticked up in the final two months of the season, while his average exit velocity plummeted in September.

McNeil has primarily been a second baseman in his career. He’s a capable if unspectacular defender there. McNeil has a decent amount of corner outfield experience, where he has received solid defensive grades. He added a little more than 200 innings in center field this past season, albeit with mediocre marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average. McNeil is a below-average runner and shouldn’t be counted on for more than part-time work in center field.

While the contract and injury are obstacles, McNeil could be appealing to some teams if the Mets pay down part of the contract. The Astros don’t have an everyday second baseman and need a left-handed bat. The Angels could also use a lefty hitter and could bounce McNeil between second and third base. The Royals got nothing out of second base this year and generally prefer high-contact hitters of his ilk. The Giants, Athletics, Pirates and Tigers (if Gleyber Torres rejects the qualifying offer) could all look to upgrade at second base. Those teams would probably prefer to acquire Brendan Donovan, but the prospect cost would be much higher for the St. Louis utilityman.

If the Mets were to trade McNeil, they could kick Brett Baty over to second base. That’d perhaps enable them to make a run at a free agent third baseman or try to sign Ha-Seong Kim as a multi-positional player who’d upgrade the infield defense. McNeil’s contact comes with a $12.5MM luxury tax hit for New York, meaning they’re paying $13.75MM in taxes on it as a third-time payor in the highest bracket. The CBT hit would recalculate to reflect the remaining money on the backloaded deal if he’s traded. It’d be a $17.75MM luxury tax number — minus any cash considerations the Mets include, which would remain on their CBT ledger — for an acquiring team.

Brad Keller Drawing Interest As Starting Pitcher

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Teams have shown interest in free agent right-hander Brad Keller as both a starter and reliever, reports Joel Sherman of The New York Post. It’s not clear which teams are involved, though Sherman writes that the Yankees have not emerged as a serious suitor to this point.

Keller is coming off a breakout year working out of the Cubs bullpen. The 30-year-old righty fired 69 2/3 innings of 2.07 ERA ball. He emerged as Craig Counsell’s most trusted leverage arm by the end of the season. Keller recorded 25 holds and a trio of saves while relinquishing just three leads all year. He was fantastic in the second half, allowing one run while striking out 35 hitters across 27 2/3 frames. He picked up two more saves and a hold while tossing 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs.

While the underlying metrics weren’t quite so dominant, Keller posted solid peripherals across the board. He punched out 27.2% of opponents against a manageable 8% walk rate. Keller got ground-balls at a 56.5% clip, the 10th-highest rate among relievers with 50+ innings. The only slight area of concern was a modest 10.8% swinging strike rate that checked in a little below the 11.5% league average.

Keller’s performance was obviously going to have plenty of teams interested in him as a reliever. As we noted on our writeup of the Top 50 Free Agents, it made sense that some clubs would view him as a rotation conversion candidate. Keller has plenty of starting experience. He was a starter for most of his six seasons as a member of the Royals. The 6’5″ righty found some early-career success as a grounder specialist at the back of the K.C. rotation.

His numbers tanked between 2021-23, and he underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome before the ’24 campaign. Keller didn’t find much success in limited MLB looks with the White Sox and Red Sox that year. He was forced to settle for a minor league contract with the Cubs last winter. Keller looked rejuvenated in a relief role, earning a roster spot out of camp and pitching his way to the top of the bullpen hierarchy before long.

While the thoracic outlet surgery could give some clubs trepidation, there’s reason for optimism if he does return to starting. He has continued to use a five-pitch mix out of the bullpen. He had no issues handling left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .223/.293/.277 slash with a 26% strikeout rate over 123 plate appearances. Keller doesn’t have pristine command but has shown good enough control to work into the middle innings as a starter. While he obviously wouldn’t maintain this past season’s 97.2 MPH average fastball velocity in longer stints, it’s not unreasonable to imagine him sitting 94-95 over five-plus innings.

MLBTR predicted Keller for a three-year, $36MM contract. That baked in the possibility that he could sign somewhere as a starter. That kind of move has become commonplace in recent seasons. Garrett Crochet, Seth Lugo, Michael King, Clay Holmes, Reynaldo López and Jordan Hicks are a few of the pitchers who built back to starting after years of pitching in relief.

The Braves were reportedly set to offer Jeff Hoffman the same opportunity until a flagged physical led them to walk away from a $45-48MM agreement altogether. Luke Weaver said in September that he’d be open to offers as a starter. It’s not without risk — Hicks and A.J. Puk are among the pitchers who simply couldn’t cut it because of command or injury issues — but even an outcome like the López or Holmes conversions would be a solid return on investment for a three-year contract in the $12-14MM range annually.

Aaron Judge Wins AL MVP Award

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Aaron Judge has repeated as the American League MVP. The Yankees star edged out Cal Raleigh and easily cleared third-place finisher José Ramírez to claim his third MVP in four seasons. He’s the thirteenth player in league history to win the award on three occasions.

It was about as tightly contested a race as possible. Judge and Raleigh were 1-2 in some order on all 30 ballots. Judge received 17 first-place votes against Raleigh’s 13. Had two of the Judge voters gone the other way, there would have been co-MVP winners for the first time since Keith Hernandez and Willie Stargell split the NL award in 1979.

That’s a testament to the remarkable seasons turned in by both players. Judge was yet again the best offensive player in baseball. He hit .331/.457/.688 to lead the majors in all three slash stats. Judge paced the AL with 124 walks and 137 runs scored. He finished second behind Raleigh with 53 homers and 114 runs batted in. While Raleigh had the edge in the power counting statistics, Judge’s offensive rate metrics were far better. He walked more, struck out less, and had much better results on balls in play that didn’t clear the fences. Judge had a near .100 point advantage over Raleigh in OBP and more than .080 points above him in average. He won the AL batting title by .020 points over Bo Bichette and Jacob Wilson.

There’s no question that Judge was the more valuable hitter. The case for Raleigh rested on the difficulty of putting up that kind of production as a catcher. The Seattle backstop had one of the greatest seasons ever at the position. He not only became the first catcher in MLB history to reach 50 homers, he cruised to an MLB-high 60 bombs. Raleigh tied for the ninth-most home runs in a season at any position and is tied for third (behind ’22 Judge and 1961 Roger Maris) among hitters who were not connected to performance-enhancing drugs. Raleigh also led the American League with 125 RBI while hitting .247/.359/.589 across 705 plate appearances.

It left voters with a difficult choice: reward the superior hitter or the player who turned in an historic season at the sport’s most demanding position? FanGraphs credited Judge with 10.1 Wins Above Replacement, while Raleigh was at 9.1 WAR. They were easily the top two players in MLB by that metric. Baseball Reference had a slightly bigger gap in Judge’s favor (9.7 to 7.4). Both players were instrumental in getting their teams to the postseason — the Yankees as a Wild Card, Seattle as winners of the AL West.

In the end, voters went with Judge by the narrowest of margins. This was the only of the major awards that was especially close. Shohei Ohtani (NL MVP), Paul Skenes (NL Cy Young), and Nick Kurtz (AL Rookie of the Year) all won unanimously. Tarik Skubal (AL Cy Young) and Drake Baldwin (NL Rookie of the Year) each received more than two-thirds of the first place votes in those categories. The AL MVP was at least somewhat in doubt until the announcement.

Judge has three MVPs and has finished in the top five on five occasions. He’s already a lock for the Hall of Fame and can put himself in truly rarified air if he wins the award once more. Ohtani became only the second player in league history to win a fourth career MVP tonight. Barry Bonds is the record holder with seven such honors. Judge is headed into the fourth season of the nine-year, $360MM free agent deal that he signed to stay in the Bronx over the 2022-23 offseason.

Raleigh has received MVP votes in three straight seasons. He was already one of the sport’s best catchers coming into the season, but this year elevated him to an inner circle of superstars. The M’s signed him to a six-year, $105MM extension just before Opening Day. He’s under contract through 2030 and should remain the face of a wide open competitive window in Seattle. This was his first top three MVP finish.

While Ramírez never stood a chance of winning the award this year, this was his sixth career top five finish. Ramírez has finished in third-place three times and was the runner-up behind José Abreu in 2020. Cleveland’s star third baseman hit .283/.360/.503 and reached 30 homers for the fourth time. He’s putting together a Hall of Fame career and led the Guardians on a late-season run to a second straight AL Central title. Ramírez took a significant hometown discount on a $124MM extension early in the 2022 season. He’s signed for another three years.

It was obvious that every voter would have Judge and Raleigh in the top two. The ballot opened up with the third-place spot. Ramírez led the way with 19 third-place votes and was the only other player who was in the top five on every ballot. Last year’s runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. received nine third-place selections and finished fourth overall. Skubal earned his highest career placement with a fifth-place finish. He and Junior Caminero (who finished ninth overall) received one third-place vote apiece. Julio Rodríguez, George Springer, Garrett Crochet and Jeremy Peña rounded out the top 10. Kurtz was the only other player who received any fourth or fifth place votes. Twenty players appeared on at least one ballot.

Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz, Imagn Images. Full voter breakdown available via BBWAA.

Shohei Ohtani Wins NL MVP Award

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Shohei Ohtani has his fourth MVP award. As expected, the two-way superstar repeated as NL MVP and has now won the award twice in each league. He’s the second player in MLB history to win a fourth MVP. Barry Bonds won the award seven times. Until tonight, he’d been the only player to earn that title more than thrice. Ohtani won the award unanimously for the third consecutive season and has gotten all 30 first-place votes in all four of his wins.

It’s a third consecutive MVP for the Dodgers slugger. He won the AL version in 2023 during his final season as a member of the Angels. He has taken the crown in both seasons as a Dodger, winning a World Series in each. His $700MM free agent contract is already among the most successful in league history. He’ll have the opportunity to match Bonds’ record of four consecutive MVP wins next season. Bonds won the award as a member of the Giants each season from 2001-04.

Ohtani beats out Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto, the other NL finalists. He led the majors with 146 runs scored while slashing .282/.392/.622 across 727 plate appearances. Ohtani paced the NL in slugging percentage and OPS. He hit a career-high 55 home runs, one back of Schwarber for the Senior Circuit lead. Ohtani’s 102 runs batted in were “only” good for sixth in the NL, though that’s partially because he spent all but one week of the season working out of the leadoff spot.

While Schwarber matched Ohtani from a power perspective, the latter had the advantage of more than .040 points of batting average and .025 points in OBP. He also stole 20 bases and was a far more valuable overall baserunner. That’s before considering his achievements on the mound.

Ohtani finally returned after an extended layoff from pitching following his second career elbow surgery. He chipped in 47 innings of 2.84 ERA ball with 62 strikeouts over 14 starts. Ohtani probably would have won the MVP even if he were simply a DH, as he did in 2024. That he’s also capable of pitching at a top-of-the-rotation level when healthy only reaffirms his status as the sport’s greatest player today and arguably ever.

The award voting takes place at the end of the regular season. Ohtani added another eight homers with a .265/.405/.691 slash over 84 plate appearances in the postseason. He’d been only average during the Dodgers’ World Series run in 2024. That changed this October. Ohtani leveled up when the lights were brightest, hitting .333 with a .500 on-base percentage during the Fall Classic. He set a playoff record with nine times on base during the marathon Game 3, when a couple early homers led Jays manager John Schneider to intentionally walk him every time he came up in extra innings.

Ohtani’s monster showing shouldn’t take away from Schwarber’s phenomenal year. He led the NL in homers and took home the major league RBI crown by driving in 132 runs. Schwarber hit .240/.365/.563 across 724 plate appearances while starting all 162 games for the Phillies. He hit 187 home runs over the course of his four-year, $79MM free agent deal with the Phils and is now set to cash in during a return trip to free agency. Schwarber and Ohtani are tied for second in the majors in homers over the past four seasons, trailing only Aaron Judge. He has received MVP votes in four straight seasons, but this is his first time as a finalist.

Soto just wrapped up the first season of his free agent mega deal with the Mets. It was a disappointing year for the team, as they melted down in September and lost out on a playoff berth to an 83-win Cincinnati club. Soto came under some fire early after getting out to a slow start, but he was a monster from June onward. He finished the year with a .263/.396/.525 slash across 715 trips to the plate. Soto led the majors with 127 walks and paced the NL in on-base percentage. That’s to be expected for the hitter with the game’s best eye. Far more surprising is that he also tied for the NL lead with 38 stolen bases after entering the season with 57 steals over his first six and a half seasons. Soto has never won an MVP but has finished in the top three on three occasions.

FanGraphs credited Ohtani with an NL-best 9.4 wins above replacement between his pitching and hitting. Baseball Reference had him in second place at 7.7 WAR, narrowly behind Cy Young runner-up Cristopher Sánchez at eight WAR. BRef actually had Diamondbacks shortstop Geraldo Perdomo as the WAR leader solely among position players, excluding Ohtani’s pitching stats. Perdomo was second in fWAR behind Ohtani.

Schwarber received 23 of the 30 second-place votes. Four voters had Soto second on their ballot, while the other three placed Perdomo in that spot. The three finalists were the only players who appeared among the top five on all 30 ballots. Trea Turner, Pete Alonso and Freddie Freeman all received one third-place vote, with the rest split between Schwarber, Soto and Perdomo. Perdomo finished in fourth place, while Turner landed in fifth. Cy Young winner Paul Skenes came in sixth and was the top pitcher on the ballot. Corbin Carroll, Fernando Tatis Jr., Pete Crow-Armstrong and Francisco Lindor rounded out the top 10. Twenty three players received at least one vote.

Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images. Full vote breakdown available via BBWAA.

Kris Bubic Drawing Trade Interest From Multiple Clubs

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Royals left-hander Kris Bubic is drawing interest from multiple unspecified clubs, reports Will Sammon of The Athletic. Perhaps just as importantly, Sammon also notes that the Royals are open to the possibility of moving the southpaw.

Bubic, 28, didn’t find much success in his first few major league seasons. Early in 2023, he added a slider and seemed to be on the cusp of a breakout, but that lasted just three starts before he required Tommy John surgery.

He missed the remainder of that campaign and worked out of the bullpen when he returned in 2024, but with great success. He gave the Royals 30 1/3 innings with a 2.67 earned run average. His 32.2% strikeout rate, 4.1% walk rate and 56.2% ground ball rate were all excellent figures. He posted a 1.93 ERA over four postseason appearances as well.

The Royals stretched him back out in 2025. He wasn’t quite as dominant as he was as a reliever in 2024, but his results were still quite good. He logged 116 1/3 innings over 20 starts with a 2.55 ERA, 24.4% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 47.2% ground ball rate. A rotator cuff strain put him on the injured list at the end of July and he missed the final two months of the season. At the time of that injury, it was reported that he would not require surgery and would have a normal offseason. According to the MLB.com injury tracker, he was recently cleared to resume throwing.

Thanks to the slow start to his career and injury absences, his track record of success isn’t massive, but he has shown very intriguing flashes of upside. His winding journey also means that he is now just a year away from free agency and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $6MM salary. That’s quite modest by modern pitching standards, especially compared to what the top free agents are likely to get this winter. For instance, the top pitcher on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list was Dylan Cease. He was projected for $189MM over seven years, or $27MM annually.

The Royals are looking to bolster their offense, particularly in the outfield and at second base. However, they probably don’t have a lot of financial wiggle room. They aren’t usually huge spenders and owner John Sherman recently stated that the payroll would probably stay fairly flat compared to 2025. RosterResource currently projects them for a $142MM payroll in 2026, a tad higher than the $138MM they had at the end of 2025.

Trading some pitching is probably the club’s best path for adding offense. Their projected rotation currently includes Bubic, Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, Stephen Kolek, Ryan Bergert, Luinder Avila, Ben Kudrna and others. Sammon reports Ragans is not likely to be available. That’s not surprising since he’s controlled for another three seasons. Even if the Royals were motivated to move him, now wouldn’t be a good time since he’s coming off a poor and injury-marred season. Wacha and Lugo have recently inked extensions, with each signed through 2027 with club options for 2028.

That leaves the most likely trade candidates as Bubic or one of the younger and more controllable arms. The Royals may consider moving one of the other guys but they are cheap and have options, making them valuable pieces for a club without huge payroll capacity. Bubic’s value will be somewhat capped by the fact that he only has the one year of control and some spotty health on his track record. However, the salary is attractive for other clubs and could allow the Royals to save a bit of cash to use on other pursuits.

As Sammon points out, another thing working in the club’s favor is that a lot of other pitchers with upside are seemingly unavailable. Recent reports have downplayed the trade possibilities on guys like Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Hunter Greene, Freddy Peralta, Joe Ryan and Pablo López. It’s probably still fair to expect guys like MacKenzie Gore, Sonny Gray and others to be out there but every name that comes off the board gives the Royals a bit more leverage.

Since Bubic is only controlled for one more season, he should only draw interest from clubs planning to contend in 2026. That may make it a challenge for the Royals to line up a deal, as those clubs probably don’t want to meaningfully subtract from their big league rosters. It’s not impossible, however, as clubs like the Angels and Red Sox have designs on contending, have a need for pitching but also have too many corner outfielders.

If the Royals can’t line up a classic “baseball trade” in that fashion, they could always flip Bubic for prospects. That could increase their ability to trade prospects for an impact bat or two, either by moving the prospects they just acquired or guys they already had who have become more expendable by the new arrivals.

Presumably, the Royals are currently evaluating all sorts of scenarios. As mentioned, they could move a cheaper and more controllable arm such as Cameron, Bergert, Kolek or others in that camp, but Bubic is an intriguing upside play for contending clubs. There’s risk with the recent injuries but Bubic is far cheaper than the options available in free agency and doesn’t require a long-term commitment. It’s also possible that he ends up recouping a draft pick down the line, if he stays healthy and pitches well enough in 2026 to justify a qualifying offer at season’s end.

Photo courtesy of Sam Navarro, Imagn Images

Brewers President Downplays Possibility Of Freddy Peralta Trade

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Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta is a speculative trade candidate since he’s now just a year away from free agency. However, president of baseball operations Matt Arnold downplayed the possibility in speaking to Robert Murray of FanSided. “I anticipate him being part of our team moving forward,” Arnold said.

Arnold didn’t completely wipe a trade from the table, acknowledging the reality of Peralta’s situation. “We’ve had to make tough decisions on the (Josh) Hader’s and Corbin Burnes’ of the world,” Arnold said. “Freddy is certainly in that conversation.” He noted that the Brewers have to listen to offers because “we’re the smallest market in the league” but it seems they would prefer to keep Peralta in blue and yellow.

One can’t always take baseball executives at their word, as it’s usually in their best interest to hide their true intentions. If Arnold were shopping Peralta, admitting it publicly would only diminish his leverage in trade talks. However, Andy Martino of SNY reports that rival teams are expecting Peralta to stay. Perhaps some club can bowl the Brewers over with an overwhelming offer, but it seems the winds are blowing Peralta back to Milwaukee for the moment.

The reason it’s a discussion comes from the club’s history, as Arnold alluded to. The Brewers have traded key players as they have neared free agency, with Hader and Burnes two notable examples. Devin Williams is another. A trade seemed plausible enough that MLBTR gave Peralta the #8 spot on the list of Top 40 Trade Candidates for this offseason. However, it doesn’t always play out that way, as Milwaukee held Willy Adames until he reached free agency. They received draft pick compensation after he rejected a qualifying offer and signed with the Giants.

Peralta is only going to make $8MM this year, as part of the extension he signed back in 2020, which has worked out brilliantly for the club. Peralta wasn’t fully established as a big league starter at that time, as he also worked out of the bullpen earlier in his career. He took over a rotation gig in 2021 and logged 738 1/3 innings over the past five seasons with a 3.30 earned run average, 29.6% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate.

The $8MM salary is far less onerous than when the Brewers have been in this situation before. Burnes was going to make $15.6375MM in 2024 when he was flipped to the Orioles. Hader was making $11MM when he was traded at the deadline in 2022 and was going to get another raise in 2023. Adames made $12.25MM with the Brewers in his final season before free agency. Williams made $8.6MM with the Yankees in 2025. Even for a low-spending club like the Brewers, $8MM for a front-of-rotation starter is very affordable.

There could still be an argument for trading Peralta to upgrade other parts of the roster, but it would weaken the rotation. When the Brewers traded Burnes, they knew they could still count on Peralta to step up and take over as the ace. The succession plan wouldn’t be as smooth now. It’s theoretically possible for someone like Jacob Misiorowski to inherit that crown but he isn’t fully established yet. He has great stuff and made his big league debut this year but posted a 5.36 ERA in the second half and doesn’t turn 24 until April.

It’s possible something changes in the coming months but perhaps the Brewers will again have Peralta anchoring the rotation in 2026. He’ll be followed by some combination of Misiorowski, Quinn Priester, Chad Patrick, Logan Henderson, Robert Gasser and Tobias Myers.

Arnold added to Murray that the Brewers would love to bring Brandon Woodruff back. That’s not a surprising admission, as Woodruff has thus far spent his entire career with the Brewers. Milwaukee made him a $22.025MM qualifying offer even though he has some health question marks. He just came back from a lengthy absence due to shoulder surgery and also finished the 2025 season back on the injured list with a lat strain.

In between those IL stints, he was excellent. His velocity was down relative to his pre-surgery work but he still managed to post a 3.20 ERA over 12 starts. His 32.3% strikeout rate and 5.4% walk rate were both excellent numbers.

Even with the question marks and the QO attached, MLBTR predicted he could still secure a three-year, $66MM deal. It would be pretty surprising if the Brewers gave out a deal like that. They have only once gone beyond $50MM for a free agent, which was their $80MM deal for Lorenzo Cain back in 2018. If Woodruff signs elsewhere, the Brewers would be entitled to draft pick compensation.

Photo courtesy of Michael McLoone, Imagn Images

Seidler Family Exploring Potential Sale Of Padres

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The Padres announced Thursday that the Seidler family, which has owned the majority stake in the franchise since 2012, will explore “strategic options” for the team, including a potential sale of the franchise. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reported the potential sale just minutes before the team’s formal press release.

“The family has decided to begin a process of evaluating our future with the Padres, including a potential sale of the franchise,” chairman John Seidler said within this morning’s announcement. “We will undertake this process with integrity and professionalism in a way that honors [late chairman Peter Seidler’s] legacy and love for the Padres and lays the foundation for the franchise’s long-term success.  During the process and as we prepare for the 2026 season, the Padres will continue to focus on its players, employees, fans, and community while putting every resource into winning a World Series championship. We remain fully committed to this team, its fans, and the San Diego community.”

It’s been nearly two years to the day since the untimely passing of late Padres chairman Peter Seidler, who passed away at just 63 years of age. His brother, John, was approved as the team’s control person earlier this year.

That appointment came after a monthslong legal battle wherein Peter’s widow, Sheel Seidler, filed suit against brothers-in-law Matt and Bob Seidler, alleging that they had breached fiduciary duty and committed fraud as successors of their late brother’s trust. Sheel Seidler accused Matt and Bob of selling assets to themselves at “far” below-market prices as they attempted to consolidate control of the franchise. Matt vehemently denied the allegations in a formal statement of his own, wherein he accused Sheel of “manufacturing claims” against other trustees in an effort to secure control of the franchise herself.

To this point, Sheel’s lawsuit has yet to be litigated in full. If it reached that point, it’d presumably be a yearslong process. There’s no indication that the parties have settled the suit outside of court, either.

At this juncture, it’s not yet known whether the Seidler family will sell the majority stake or seek new minority investors. Acee reports that one minority owner, who owns a roughly 10% stake in the team, is in the process of selling his stake in the club. Whether there will be larger portions available remains to be seen and is surely in part dependent on interest. Acee’s report also indicates that the preliminary $1.8 billion valuation of the franchise includes around $300MM in debt and “more than $150 million in paybacks to owners for two cash infusions made in recent years.”

As we recently saw with the Twins, who had a reported $425MM in debt while they attempted to sell the franchise for around $1.7 billion, that level of debt can prove a major obstacle in finding a buyer. The Pohlad family ultimately opted not to sell the Twins franchise, instead bringing in two new minority stakeholders whose investments in the club (coupled with an aggressive deadline fire sale) helped to clear that debt.

While the current ownership landscape is rather tumultuous, the Padres should still be in a position to command considerable interest. Both Forbes and CNBC have reported the team to be profitable. They’ve set franchise attendance records in three straight seasons and ranked second in the National League in terms of attendance this season — thanks in part to a lack of competition in terms of major sports teams in the market — but still enjoy the benefit of receiving revenue-sharing funds due to the size of their market. In that sense, even with that notable debt and some infighting among the current owners, the Padres have many points working in their favor if the Seidler family does choose to pursue a sale of the majority stake.

Acee further reports that even as the team explores a potential sale, one source described the team’s baseball operations as “business as usual,” adding that payroll will be in the same general range as in 2025. The Padres opened the 2025 season with a payroll of nearly $210MM and tacked on a few million more over the course of the season. RosterResource currently projects a $201MM payroll, though that’s before any potential non-tenders or trades from the big league roster.

The Padres were far more free-spending under Peter Seidler’s watch than they have been since his passing. “Business as usual,” in that sense (coupled with a repeat of the 2025 payroll), seems to suggest that San Diego will need to explore creative deals to address various holes on the roster. The Padres have utilized complex contract structures (e.g. Nick Pivetta’s backloaded, opt-out-laden four-year contract) to keep payroll in what current ownership deems an acceptable range. They’ve also worked aggressively on the trade market to find low-cost options at areas of need (e.g. catcher Freddy Fermin, closer Mason Miller) — but in the process have further depleted an already thin farm system. They’ll now look to fill multiple rotation holes and perhaps add a bat without much in the way of financial flexibility.

Further cementing the notion that the status quo will be maintained, at least from a baseball operations standpoint, Acee writes that John Seidler and president A.J. Preller have been discussing a contract extension which could be finalized in the near future. Preller is entering the final season of his most recent contract extension. He’s been running baseball operations in San Diego since 2014. Readers are highly encouraged to read Acee’s piece in full, as it contains more granular details about the current financial structure of the ownership group and quotes from various anonymous sources on the possibility of a sale and the long-term outlook of the club.

Astros GM: “No Interest” In Trading Isaac Paredes

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The Astros appear to have something of a corner infield logjam. They acquired Carlos Correa at the deadline, and Jeremy Peña’s presence meant Correa needed to move to third base. That made sense while Isaac Paredes was injured but is a tougher fit if everyone is healthy. The Astros have Christian Walker signed for two more seasons at first base. Yordan Alvarez remains the primary designated hitter, and the Astros would probably welcome the opportunity to get Jose Altuve more DH at-bats if they could find them.

Based on that glut of corner bats, there’s been speculation about the Astros trading an infielder this offseason. Most of that has revolved around Paredes or Walker, but general manager Dana Brown downplayed the idea that the Astros were looking to move either player. That’s particularly true of Paredes, who turned in a .254/.352/.458 line with 20 homers in 102 games during his first season in Houston.

“He was one of the best guys at seeing pitches and working counts and it’s one of the reasons why we went out and traded for him,” Brown told reporters at the GM Meetings on Wednesday (link via Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle). “We need that value in our lineup. It’s the exact direction we’re trying to take it. We feel like if we trade him it would be weakening our lineup. So right now, we have no interest in trading him.”

Paredes was the centerpiece of the Kyle Tucker return from the Cubs. He ranked fifth on the team in on-base percentage and tied for third in homers despite missing most of the second half with a significant strain of his right hamstring. Paredes returned late in the season but was limited to DH work. Brown said he’s currently at roughly 65% health and will “potentially” be available for Opening Day (via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com).

The 26-year-old’s swing is geared for pull-side pop that makes him an ideal fit in Houston’s Daikin Park, where the Crawford Boxes leave a short porch in left field. The two-time All-Star was an accomplished hitter with the Rays, so it’s not as if he’s only a product of the park, but he’s perfectly tailored even for a lineup that skews very heavily to the right side.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Paredes for a $9.3MM arbitration salary. He’ll go through that process once more before hitting free agency during the 2027-28 offseason. There’d be significant interest if the Astros did decide to shop him, likely for starting pitching, but they’re clearly proceeding as if he’ll be in their lineup. Brown said the Astros are not considering him for a regular role at second base, so he’ll be back mostly in the corners.

While that’d seemingly point in the direction of a Walker trade, the GM indicated that’s not currently under consideration either. “We haven’t talked about Walker in a trade. Walker’s our everyday first baseman,” Brown said. He’s in a much different spot from Paredes. He’s signed for $20MM annually for his age 35-36 seasons. Walker had a team-leading 27 homers this year, but he hit .238 with a career-worst .297 on-base percentage. The three-time Gold Glove winner also posted uncharacteristically middling defensive grades. Baseball Reference felt he was right around replacement level overall, while FanGraphs had him at one WAR.

That’s not the kind of season that would net Walker $20MM per season on a multi-year deal if he were a free agent. The Astros might need to eat around half the money just to move him for a middling return. That would open first base for Paredes and reallocate a bit of payroll room for rotation adds, yet it’d leave them with more dead money on a first baseman right as the José Abreu contract finally comes off the books. The Astros could value Walker’s power and defensive reputation enough to hold him in hope that he rebuilds some value.

Trading Correa or Peña seems even more far-fetched. “We’re not really trying to pull from the infield in the trade market, simply because we feel like all those guys are going to be part of the top of our lineup,” Brown said generally. “I think they’re all going to hit somewhere between 1 and 6. So I wouldn’t try to make any moves from the infield standpoint.” That blanket statement probably doesn’t apply to utility players Ramón Urías or Mauricio Dubón, who are respectively projected for $4.4MM and $5.8MM in their final seasons of arbitration. The Astros could trade or non-tender either or both.

Brown spoke generally about the Astros bouncing players around the diamond to maximize rest opportunities for their veteran hitters. Correa has never played second base, though he’d presumably be capable of doing so. One speculative option would be to get Correa semi-regular second base work on days when Paredes is at the hot corner. They’ll have Altuve continue bouncing between second base, left field and DH with Alvarez splitting time between DH and left.

That carries into an outfield that should feature a couple changes. Houston traded for Jesús Sánchez to add a left-handed bat who could play right field down the stretch. Sánchez played terribly, batting .199/.269/.349 with multiple defensive lapses. He’s projected at a $6.5MM arbitration salary and under club control for two seasons. Chandler Rome of The Athletic writes that the Astros are open to trade inquiries on Sánchez, though it seems more likely they won’t find interest and will simply non-tender him at next Friday’s deadline.

That’ll likely leave the Astros in search of another left-handed hitting outfielder. Rookies Zach Cole and Jacob Melton could factor in but have limited track records. Taylor Trammell is probably on the roster bubble. Moving on from Sánchez and adding someone like Max Kepler, Cedric Mullins or Mike Yastrzemski in free agency would make sense.

Notably, Brown would not commit to second-year outfielder Cam Smith breaking camp in 2026. The former first-rounder, acquired alongside Paredes in the Tucker deal, hit .236/.312/.358 across 493 plate appearances as a rookie. It was hardly a disastrous showing for a player with such limited professional experience, and Smith played an excellent right field despite being drafted as a third baseman. Yet he struggled significantly in the second half (.154/.247/.242) and could be due for a look against Triple-A pitching.

“We saw glimpses of it last year, but we’re going to need him to be more consistent,” Brown said (via Rome). “I would think he comes back and tries to play with more consistency and makes the necessary adjustments, but we have to be open to sending him back to Triple-A if he hasn’t turned the corner. … There’s a lot to be said for guys that work hard in the offseason and then make the necessary adjustments. We’re hoping that Cam does that. If he does that, we’ll be excited.”

Optioning Smith would give the Astros the flexibility to pursue an everyday right fielder. Jake Meyers should be back as the primary center fielder, though Rome reports that Houston has received a fair bit of trade interest in the 29-year-old. That’s to be expected, as Meyers is a plus defender who is coming off a career year at the plate. He hit .292/.354/.373 over 381 plate appearances with dramatically improved strike zone discipline. He’s controllable for another two seasons and projected at a bargain $3.5MM rate. It’s difficult to envision a Houston team already looking for outfielders trading Meyers, but it’s possible another club tries to force their hand by putting a controllable starting pitcher on the table.

Paul Skenes Wins NL Cy Young Award

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Paul Skenes has won his first career Cy Young award. The Pirates righty is named the National League’s best pitcher one year after winning Rookie of the Year and finishing third in Cy Young balloting. He beat out Cristopher Sánchez and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for the honors. The vote was unanimous, as he received all 30 first-place votes. Sánchez was second on every ballot, so it wasn’t until third that voters began to diverge.

Skenes is the third pitcher in franchise history to win the Cy Young, joining Vernon Law (1960) and Doug Drabek (1990). He turned in an MLB-best 1.97 earned run average over his first full season in the big leagues. He’d posted a 1.96 mark across 23 starts as a rookie. He’s the only starting pitcher in the majors with a sub-2.00 ERA over the past two seasons. Skenes ranked fourth in the NL with 187 2/3 innings pitched and tied Jesús Luzardo for second with 216 strikeouts.

Only Logan Webb recorded more strikeouts. Skenes ranked fifth in strikeout rate (minimum 100 innings) and third behind Webb and Sánchez with 20 quality starts. He led the Senior Circuit with a 2.36 FIP and placed fifth with a 3.10 SIERA. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each had him in essentially a dead heat with Sánchez for the Wins Above Replacement lead.

The 2023 first overall pick is widely considered one of the two best pitchers in the sport. There’s a fair debate between him and two-time AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal, but they’re almost certainly 1-2 in some order. Fans of other teams may dream about prying Skenes out of Pittsburgh, but that’s not happening anytime soon. General manager Ben Cherington stated in no uncertain terms yesterday that their ace would remain a Pirate in 2026. He’s under club control for another four seasons, and while a trade may be in the cards down the line, the immediate focus for player and team is getting the Bucs to the postseason. Skenes is the most important player on a team trying to break a decade-long playoff drought.

Sánchez had a breakout season to establish himself as a true ace for the Phillies. He fired 202 innings of 2.50 ERA ball across 32 starts. He finished fourth in the NL with 212 strikeouts. Sánchez had been a borderline top-of-the-rotation starter between 2023-24, earning a top 10 Cy Young finish in the second of those seasons. This was his first time posting a sub-3.00 ERA or topping 200 innings and strikeouts, so he certainly leveled up in his age-28 season. He’s signed through 2028 and under control through ’30 via a pair of club options on one of the most team-friendly contracts in the game.

Yamamoto’s World Series heroics weren’t a factor in the voting, which takes place at the end of the regular season. He earned his first All-Star nod and first Cy Young votes by turning in a 2.49 ERA across 30 starts. Yamamoto managed 201 strikeouts across 173 2/3 innings while leading the NL with fewer than six hits allowed per nine innings. Yamamoto had flashed ace potential in his first MLB season, but he was limited to 18 starts by a rotator cuff strain in 2024. He showed what he’s capable of in a full season in year two, and the Dodgers have won consecutive World Series in the first two seasons of his record-setting $325MM free agent contract.

Just over half of voters placed Yamamoto third. Webb received 10 third-place votes and finished fourth overall. Freddy Peralta picked up the four remaining third-place nods and landed in fifth place. Skenes and Sánchez were the only pitchers who appeared on every ballot. Nick Pivetta, Jesús Luzardo, Andrew Abbott and Zack Wheeler also received votes.

Image courtesy of Katie Stratman, Imagn Images. Full vote tally available courtesy of BBWAA.

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