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Padres To Sign Nick Martinez To Four-Year Deal

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THURSDAY, 7:45am: Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports that Martinez remains a free agent, though sources tell MLBTR that there is no concern the deal won’t be completed after the lockout since an agreement is in place between Martinez and the Padres.  It’s also worth noting that Martinez is set to earn $7MM in 2022, so he’d be leaving three years and $13MM on the table if he decides to opt out.

WEDNESDAY, 9:21pm: The Padres are signing Nick Martínez to a four-year, $20MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link).  The deal includes opt-outs after the first two years. The right-hander has spent the past four seasons pitching in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. His contract with the NPB’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks just expired today, but his representatives worked quickly to find him a big league landing spot before the anticipated transactions freeze.  Martinez is represented by Brian Mejia, Ulises Cabrera, and Alan Nero of Octagon.

Martínez is making his return to the majors for the first time since 2017, though he did pitch for Team USA in the Tokyo Olympics this summer. The Florida native was drafted and developed by the Rangers, where current San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was then a prominent member of the scouting department. Martínez debuted in 2014 and worked as a back-of-the-rotation arm for the next few seasons.

Martinez, 31, posted a stellar 1.62 ERA with a 24.8 K% and 6.6 BB% for the Hawks this year in 149 2/3 innings.  According to Sung Min Kim, Martinez’s fastball velocity increased to nearly 94 miles per hour this year, and his changeup has become more effective.  Several American pitchers have revived their careers in NPB or KBO in recent years and returned to MLB on big league deals, including Chris Flexen, Josh Lindblom, Merrill Kelly, and Miles Mikolas.  Martinez’s contract tops all of them, as Mikolas had inked a two-year, $15.5MM deal with the Cardinals four years ago.  Plus, Martinez maintains the ability to re-enter free agency if he’s able to have success in 2022 or ’23.

Martinez’s $5MM AAV is key for the Padres, one of only two teams to exceed the $210MM luxury tax threshold in 2021.  The club is currently in a similar place for 2022, though we don’t know how much success the players’ union will have in increasing the base tax threshold.

Martinez joins a Padres rotation that currently includes Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Blake Snell, and Mike Clevinger.  Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet, and Ryan Weathers also figure to be in the mix.  Though that’s significant depth, but it’s plausible that Preller might look to trade someone as a means of clearing payroll.  The Padres already sent Adam Frazier to the Mariners to clear an estimated $7MM or so.

Aside from the Frazier trade, the Padres added to their stock of catchers by acquiring Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins.    They also signed a pair of relievers today in Luis Garcia and Robert Suarez, with the latter having played against Martinez in NPB this year.  There’s a sense that the Padres have plenty of additional offseason moves to make, but like the other 29 teams everything will go on pause until the lockout ends.

Major League Baseball Institutes Lockout

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Major League Baseball has officially instituted a lockout. The 2016-21 collective bargaining agreement between MLB owners and the players’ union expired at 10:59pm central time tonight. It has long been clear that Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association would not have a new deal signed before the current contract ran its course.  With no agreement reached, the league’s owners unanimously voted to institute a lockout, according to a report from Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (Twitter link).

Commissioner Rob Manfred announced the lockout as part of a pre-prepared letter to fans (full text available here), Manfred wrote in part:

“Simply put, we believe that an offseason lockout is the best mechanism to protect the 2022 season. We hope that the lockout will jumpstart the negotiations and get us to an agreement that will allow the season to start on time. This defensive lockout was necessary because the Players Association’s vision for Major League Baseball would threaten the ability of most teams to be competitive. It’s simply not a viable option. From the beginning, the MLBPA has been unwilling to move from their starting position, compromise, or collaborate on solutions.”

Manfred went on to state that the MLBPA “came to the bargaining table with a strategy of confrontation over compromise” and “never wavered from collectively the most extreme set of proposals in their history, including significant cuts to the revenue-sharing system, a weakening of the competitive balance tax, and shortening the period of time that players play for their teams. All of these changes would make our game less competitive, not more.”

The MLB Players Association released a statement of its own (on Twitter). It reads in part:

“Major League Baseball has announced a lockout of Players, shutting down our industry. This shutdown is a dramatic measure, regardless of the timing. It is not required by law or for any other reason. It was the owners’ choice, plain and simple, specifically calculate to pressure Players into relinquishing rights and benefits, and abandoning good faith bargaining proposals that will benefit not just Players, but the game and industry as a whole. … We remain determined to return to the field under the terms of a negotiated collective bargaining agreement that is fair to all parties, and provides fans with the best version of the game we all love.”

As the MLBPA suggested, the league was not under a mandate to lock the players out. Even in the absence of a CBA, the offseason could have proceeded. As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored a few months ago, the sides continued to conduct offseason business during the last winters (1993-94 and 94-95) that proceeded without a CBA in place.

There’s been little expectation MLB wouldn’t institute a lockout once this CBA expired, however. Locking out in the absence of an agreement has become the typical practice in other professional sports leagues, as management hasn’t wanted to afford players the choice whether to go on strike at a later date. The players eventually went on strike during the 1994 season, for example, spurred on by ownership’s imposition of a salary cap. The sides didn’t reach a new agreement that year, and that season’s World Series was ultimately cancelled.

MLB commissioner Rob Manfred implied the league would take this course of action a few weeks ago. Pointing to the ’94 strike and other sports leagues as justification, Manfred indicated a lockout would be on the table if no agreement were hammered out by December 1.  “I don’t think ’94 worked out too great for anybody,” the commissioner told reporters earlier this month. “I think when you look at other sports, the pattern has become to control the timing of the labor dispute and try to minimize the prospect of actual disruption of the season. That’s what it’s about: It’s avoiding doing damage to the season.”

With the lockout in place, teams will be prohibited from making any major league transactions until a new CBA is agreed upon. We’ve seen a flurry of activity — particularly via free agency — in the days leading up to the CBA expiration in response, as many clubs and players have wanted to pin down some certainty before a potential work stoppage.

A transactions freeze will be the most visible semblance of the lockout for fans, at least until the potential for game cancellations if no deal is agreed upon within a couple months. A ban on transactions is certainly not the only effect, however. Jeff Passan of ESPN explored some intricacies of the situation earlier this week in a piece that’s well worth a full read. A few of the less visible effects: injured players will not be allowed to communicate with team training staffs, players are no longer allowed to use team-run mental health services, and some foreign-born players may run into visa issues.  Don’t expect press conferences for newly signed players or interviews with GMs, either.

The lockout is unfamiliar territory for a generation of baseball fans; this is the first work stoppage in this website’s 16-year history. It’ll mark the first official work stoppage since 1994, snapping a run of nearly three decades of labor peace. The parties had discussions each day this week, but it doesn’t seem they made much progress. Evan Drellich of the Athletic reported this afternoon that the league refused to make a counter-offer on the service time structure and luxury tax thresholds unless the MLBPA dropped its efforts to push earlier free agency eligibility for players, a demand the union reportedly refused.

The league did give some ground on the competitive balance tax, with Drellich reporting MLB proposed a gradual increase of the lowest tax threshold to an endpoint of $220MM. However, that remains a fair bit shy of the MLBPA’s $240MM goal, and it’s not clear if the league’s proposed increase also involved a corresponding uptick in penalties paid for exceeding those markers.

There’s certainly plenty to be hammered out beyond the luxury tax. The service time system, arbitration and fundamental competitive structure of the league (including the number of playoff teams) will all at least be discussed over the coming weeks. That’s saying nothing of potential on-field rules changes like the extra-inning runner and the universal designated hitter. With so much yet to be determined, it’s generally not expected an agreement will be reached in short order.  The 2022 spring training schedule could potentially dictate when the lockout ends, with owners likely reluctant to forgo exhibition game revenue.

The Winter Meetings, originally scheduled for December 6 through 9 in Orlando, have been cancelled, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). The commissioner is scheduled to conduct a press conference tomorrow morning.

Orioles To Sign Jordan Lyles

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The Orioles are in agreement with right-hander Jordan Lyles on a one-year, $7MM guarantee with a 2023 club option, reports Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic (Twitter link). The deal is pending a physical, which is expected to take place after the work stoppage.  Lyles is represented by Ballengee Group.

If the Lyles deal is completed, it will mark the Orioles’ largest free agent expenditure since Mike Elias was hired as Executive Vice President and General Manager three years ago.  Elias’ previous largest free agency outlay had been a $3MM deal for Jose Iglesias.  Adding veteran Major League talent has not been a priority during Elias’ rebuild.  In 2022, Lyles and Trey Mancini figure to be the only Orioles to be paid as much as $7MM.  The Orioles have run a bottom-four payroll for the entirety of Elias’ tenure.

Drafted 38th overall by the Astros out of a South Carolina high school in 2008, Lyles peaked as a top 50 prospect prior to the 2011 season – around the time Elias moved from the Cardinals to the Astros with fellow executive Jeff Luhnow.  Luhnow ended up trading Lyles to the Rockies for Dexter Fowler in 2013.

Lyles, 31, posted a 5.15 ERA, 19 K%, 7.3 BB%, and 37.6% groundball rate in 180 innings for the Rangers this year.  There wasn’t much to like about Lyles’ season other than his taking the ball 30 times, which is a big need for an Orioles rotation with no reliable members after John Means.  After a decent 2019 season for the Pirates and Brewers, the Rangers gave Lyles a two-year, $16MM contract.  The righty struggled throughout his time in Texas.

Given that lack of success, Lyles’ contract is a bit higher than you might expect.  Perhaps that’s the cost of luring a pitcher to one of the game’s worst teams.  Lyles received more than Rich Hill or Dylan Bundy ($5MM), the same as Michael Wacha, and only $1MM less than Corey Kluber.  If the contract is completed, he’ll join Means and perhaps Bruce Zimmermann in the rotation with a cast of pitchers competing for remaining spots – unless Means is traded post-lockout.  Prize prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall should debut at some point during 2022, having both reached Double-A in ’21.

Brewers Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Red Sox For Jackie Bradley Jr., Two Prospects

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The Red Sox and Brewers announced agreement on a trade sending corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee. In return, the Red Sox are reacquiring longtime center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects, infielders David Hamilton and Alex Binelas.

It’s an out-of-the-blue swap pulled off just minutes before the work stoppage. Renfroe, 30 next month, is coming off a solid season. Signed by the Red Sox to a $3.1MM guarantee last winter, the former first-round pick emerged as Boston’s primary right fielder. He tallied 572 plate appearances and hit .259/.315/.501 with 31 home runs. By measure of wRC+, Renfroe’s overall offensive output was 14 percentage points above the league average in 2021, tied for the highest mark of his career.

Renfroe rated as a league average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. He tied for the league lead with 16 outfield assists, often showcasing a cannon of an arm that scouts have lauded since his days as a prospect. But both DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged his range as a bit below average, with the overall glovework coming out fairly middle-of-the-road.

Even if he’s not likely to win a Gold Glove, Renfroe is a capable right fielder who figures to assume a similar everyday role in Milwaukee. The Brewers lost Avisaíl García to the Marlins in free agency and seemed likely to rely on some combination of Bradley and Tyrone Taylor in right field. Each of Renfroe or Taylor could now spell veteran Lorenzo Cain in center field in the case of rest days or injury for the 35-year-old.

Renfroe steps in to upgrade that mix and add some punch to a Milwaukee lineup that ranked just 17th in slugging percentage this past season despite playing its home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly environments. He remains controllable via arbitration through the end of the 2023 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in 2022.

That’s a bit cheaper than Bradley, who will play next season on a $9.5MM deal after exercising a player option last month. Renfroe’s also coming off a far superior showing, as Bradley had a nightmarish 2021 campaign at the plate. Milwaukee signed Bradley to a two-year guarantee last offseason, but he managed only a .163/.236/.261 mark over his 428 plate appearances with the Brew Crew.

By measure of wRC+, Bradley’s offensive numbers were an astounding 65 points below league average. That ranked last among the 262 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, with essentially nothing going right for Bradley offensively. His strikeout rate spiked to a career-high 30.8%, while his walk percentage dipped to a personal-low 6.5%. Bradley’s six home runs marked his lowest total in seven years, as did his .095 ISO (slugging minus batting average).

To his credit, Bradley continued to play his typical brand of excellent defense. The former Gold Glove winner rated as twelve runs above average over his 915 1/3 innings on the grass. Statcast, meanwhile, estimated he was worth four Outs Above Average. Yet even a gloveman as excellent as Bradley isn’t providing much overall value with an offensive showing as poor as he had in 2021.

It’s not especially surprising the Milwaukee front office was looking for opportunities to upgrade over Bradley’s spot in the lineup, and they found one via his old team. While the Brewers will add an offensive upgrade, the Red Sox bring Bradley back to Boston in hopes that a return to that environment can unlock some of his prior production. Bradley was a fan favorite and generally strong player over nearly a decade with the Red Sox, first joining the organization as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010.

Bradley became an important member of the Sox’s lineup by 2014, spending most of the next seven seasons as a regular. His highlight-reel defense in center endeared him to the Boston faithful, and the left-handed hitter occasionally flashed potential on offense. His final season with the Red Sox was one of his best, as Bradley hit .283/.364/.450 with seven homers and five steals across 217 plate appearances during the truncated 2020 campaign.

The Boston front office will take a shot on a rebound at the plate while presumably installing Bradley back into the center field mix. Doing so would free up utilityman Enrique Hernández to play second base more frequently, with Alex Verdugo and top prospect Jarren Duran flanking Bradley on the corners. Of course, the Sox could look for future additions to the position player mix, with a right-handed hitting outfielder capable of complementing the lefty-swinging trio of Verdugo, Bradley and Duran standing out as an obvious fit.

Bradley’s contract also contains a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that comes with an $8MM buyout. The Red Sox are assuming a decent chunk of guaranteed money down the line in order to acquire a pair of fairly well-regarded young position players. Each of Hamilton and Binelas was ranked by Baseball America among Milwaukee’s top 20 prospects midseason.

Hamilton, 24, was an eighth-rounder of the University of Texas in 2019. He sat out that season recovering from an Achilles rupture he’d suffered during his junior year with the Longhorns, and last year’s canceled minor league campaign meant he didn’t play in affiliated ball until 2021. The left-handed hitter split his time between High-A and Double-A, hitting .259/.341/.419 with eight homers and 52 stolen bases across 459 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly given that impressive steal tally, the 5’10” middle infielder draws strong marks from scouts for his speed and athleticism, in addition to a sound approach at the plate.

Binelas, 21, was the Brewers’ third-round pick in last summer’s draft. Regarded as a potential first round talent entering his final season at the University of Louisville, he slumped through a down year that dealt a blow to his stock. The left-handed hitter did his best to put that behind him over a brief showing in Low-A after draft day, though, hitting .314/.379/.636 with nine homers in 132 trips to the plate.

A corner infielder, Binelas spent the bulk of his time in college and in the minors at third base. BA suggested midseason it looked unlikely he’d stick at the hot corner and projected his future lying at first or perhaps in left field. Binelas will need to hit to carry that profile, but he’s flashed power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills in the past. His strong showing in Low-A — while somewhat to be expected for a player drafted out of one of the top conferences in college baseball — is a strong start in that regard.

Altogether, it’s a fascinating deal — likely the final swap we’ll see for quite some time with a transaction freeze now in place. The Brewers lock in a much-needed lineup upgrade to replace a player they lost on the open market. The Red Sox improve a spotty team defense while bringing back a player who’s had plenty of success in their uniform in years past, taking on a fair bit of long-term money to also add some younger talent to the organization.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Sign James Paxton

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The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.

Paxton is coming off a pair of lost seasons. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020, his final campaign with the Yankees. The Mariners brought Paxton back on a buy-low $8.5MM guarantee. Unfortunately, the big southpaw blew out his elbow in the second inning of his first start of 2021. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April, the second such procedure of his career.

It’s not known when Paxton will be ready to return, but he’s almost certain to begin next season on the injured list. Tommy John procedures typically require a twelve to fourteen month recovery. That general area would seem to suggest a mid-summer return for Paxton, although it’s not clear precisely where he stands in recovery.

The Sox are surely hoping Paxton will be able to contribute at some point down the stretch next season, with the power lefty ideally serving as a boost to a potential playoff run. At his best, the Canadian hurler is certainly capable of being an impact member of a club’s rotation. Paxton pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 447 innings between 2017-19, striking out a massive 30.1% of batters faced while walking only 7.3% of opponents. That’s the kind of hurler to whom teams would feel comfortable giving playoff starts, and the Boston front office is rolling the dice on him regaining some of that form.

Were Paxton to pick up where he left off in 2019, he could be a long-term play for the Red Sox. Boston picks up some additional upside in the form of the option, a two-year consideration they’ll have to decide upon next winter. It’s a single provision that, if exercised, would guarantee Paxton’s salaries for both 2023 and 2024.

It’s a risk/reward play for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Boston’s incumbent rotation already looked to be one of the higher-variance units around the league. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health. Nick Pivetta has huge stuff but a spotty track record at the big league level. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock both impressed in 2021 but come with starter/relief questions. Paxton’s addition further raises that group’s ceiling, but he’s not the kind of reliable innings-eating type one could argue Boston still needs as a stabilizer.

Chad Dey of Sportsnet first reported Paxton was in agreement with the Red Sox. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $10MM guarantee, as well as the presence of the 2023-24 club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the option could bring the value of the deal as high as $35MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the presence of the player option and specific terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Sign Rich Hill

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The Red Sox announced Wednesday that they’ve signed veteran starter Rich Hill to a one-year contract. It’s reportedly a $5MM guarantee that contains up to $3MM more in incentives based on innings pitched. Hill is a client of ACES.

This is remarkably the seventh different contract Hill has signed with the Red Sox. Between various stints, he’s suited up for the Sox in parts of four seasons. After pitching for Boston from 2010-12, Hill returned for a late-season cameo in 2015. That four-start stretch kicked off the remarkable late-career renaissance he has put together over the past six years.

Hill’s showing with the Red Sox earned him a rotation job in Oakland the following season. After continuing to thrive with the A’s, he landed with the Dodgers at the 2016 trade deadline. Hill re-signed with L.A. that winter, ultimately spending the next three seasons in Dodger blue. He has bounced between the Twins, Rays and Mets over the past two years.

Things will come full circle as Hill returns to Boston for his age-42 campaign. It’ll be his 18th year logging at least some major league action, a testament to his incredible longevity and persistence. Of course, that he keeps landing big league opportunities is just as much a reflection of his continued productivity.

Hill hasn’t posted an ERA above 4.00 since his 2016 breakout. This past season’s 3.86 mark was his highest in that time, but Hill also shouldered his heaviest workload in fourteen years. Between Tampa Bay and New York, the southpaw tallied 158 2/3 frames over 32 appearances (31 starts), a top 50 total league-wide. He did so with roughly average strikeout and walk numbers (22.7% and 8.3%, respectively).

Boston has now added three potential rotation arms on one-year guarantees this winter. The Sox signed Michael Wacha for $7MM and are reportedly in agreement with James Paxton on a $10MM guarantee that contains a 2023-24 club option. They join an incumbent group led by Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock could be options for either the rotation or the bullpen as well, giving the front office and manager Alex Cora plenty of moving pieces with which to construct a staff.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first reported the Red Sox and Hill were in agreement on a one-year deal. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported the $5MM guarantee and possible incentives.

Dodgers Re-Sign Chris Taylor

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The Dodgers are retaining at least one of their top free agents, announcing agreement on a four-year contract with Chris Taylor. It’s reportedly a $60MM guarantee for the Meister Sports Management client that also contains a 2026 club option which could bring the value of the deal as high as $73MM.

According to reports, Taylor will be paid $15MM salaries in each of the next two seasons, followed by successive $13MM guarantees in 2024-25. He’s also guaranteed at least a $4MM buyout on the 2026 option, which is valued at $12MM. He’d receive a $2MM assignment bonus for every time he’s traded over the course of the deal. Additionally, the value of Taylor’s option season would increase by $3MM if he’s traded within the next two seasons, by $2MM if he’s traded between the end of the 2023 and the end of the 2024 campaigns, or by $1MM if he’s traded between the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2026. The option price would also escalate by $1MM if he tallies 525 plate appearances, earns an All-Star nomination or wins a Silver Slugger Award during the 2025 campaign.

Taylor’s guarantee falls a bit shy of MLBTR’s four-year, $64MM projection entering the offseason. He had hit the market as a fairly atypical free agent, having never settled into one spot on a star-studded Dodgers roster while bouncing around the diamond in a utility capacity. Despite his lack of a settled role, Taylor has gotten into the lineup on a near everyday basis, earning the organization’s trust with rare offensive punch for a utilityman.

The Dodgers acquired Taylor from the Mariners in a seemingly minor 2016 deal. That proved to be one of the more shrewd pick-ups of president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s tenure in L.A., though, as Taylor has been a highly productive player essentially from that moment on. The right-handed hitter has posted above-average offensive numbers (by measure of wRC+) in each of the past five seasons.

Taylor gets to that production with a strong blend of plate discipline and power. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone, and he’s become especially adept at drawing walks over the past few seasons. He also brings 15-20 home run power to the table despite playing in a pitcher-friendly environment in L.A. That’s helped Taylor offset higher than average strikeout rates to remain a quality offensive player.

Going back to his 2017 breakout, the Virginia native owns a .265/.343/.461 cumulative line. That’s 16 percentage points above the league average output, not far off his numbers in his platform campaign. Taylor hit .254/.344/.438 with 20 homers in 582 plate appearances in 2021, translating to a 113 wRC+ (13 points above average). He started especially hot, posting a .277/.382/.452 mark through the season’s first half en route to his first career All-Star selection.

While Taylor’s multi-year track record always looked likely to pay him handsomely this offseason, he did seem at one point as though he’d hit the market on a down note. The 31-year-old slumped to a .223/.290/.419 line over the regular season’s second half, seeing his strikeout rate spike to 33.1% in the process. But Taylor put any questions about his tough finish to rest with a monster postseason, popping four homers in 43 playoff plate appearances (including a walk-off shot in the National League Wild Card game) to help the Dodgers to the NL Championship Series.

Valuable as Taylor is offensively, he’s perhaps more well-known for his defense. Taylor has functioned as a true utility player over the years, starting games at every position other than first base and catcher. He spends the bulk of his time at the higher-value positions up the middle of the diamond, particularly at second base and in center field.

His return will give skipper Dave Roberts plenty of flexibility, and it’s likely Taylor will continue to assume that rover role now that he’s back in Dodger blue. Looking at the 2022 roster, it seems the bulk of that time could come at second base.

Taylor played very little at the keystone down the stretch after L.A. acquired Trea Turner from the Nationals at the trade deadline. With Corey Seager now in Texas, Turner looks likely to slide back to his typical shortstop position. That’d leave Taylor and Gavin Lux as the favorites for playing time at second, with either player also capable of spelling the presumptive starting outfield of AJ Pollock, Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts.

The specific breakdown of Taylor’s deal has yet to be reported, but the $15MM average annual value is the meaningful figure from a competitive balance tax perspective. Luxury tax calculations are based on deals’ AAV’s as opposed to actual payouts structures. After accounting for the Taylor deal, the Dodgers’ 2022 CBT number sits around $231MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That’d have handily exceeded the $210MM first threshold in 2021, although it’s impossible to know precisely where the CBT markers will land in the next collective bargaining agreement.

The Taylor signing also has an indirect effect on the Dodgers’ 2022 draft. He’d received and rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer at the outset of the offseason. The Dodgers won’t directly forfeit a pick for re-signing their own free agent, but they are bypassing the pick they’d have received had they allowed Taylor to sign elsewhere. That’s a small price to pay for a player of Taylor’s caliber, though, particularly for the Dodgers. Because they exceeded the CBT threshold in 2021, they’d have only stood to recoup a pick after the fourth round had they allowed Taylor to walk.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the Dodgers and Taylor were making progress on an agreement. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the sides had reached an agreement, as well as first with the contract terms. The Associated Press reported the specific breakdown of terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels Sign Raisel Iglesias To Four-Year Deal

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The Angels are keeping their closer in the fold, announcing the re-signing of Raisel Iglesias on a four-year, $58MM deal. The Magnus Sports client will make $10MM in 2022, followed by successive $16MM salaries from 2023-25.

Iglesias is the top free agent reliever on this winter’s market, a fact reflected in the reported four-year guarantee. Only one reliever (Liam Hendriks and Drew Pomeranz, respectively) has landed a four-year pact in each of the past two offseasons.

Iglesias earns his place among that group after posting one of the stronger seasons by any late-game option around the league. The Angels acquired the right-hander from the Reds last offseason in a move that required little more than assuming his $9.125MM salary for 2021. That proved to be an absolute bargain, as Iglesias acclimated well to his new home in Orange County. Assigned the Angels’ ninth-inning role, he tossed 70 innings of 2.57 ERA ball, successfully locking down 34 of 39 save attempts.

That marked Iglesias’ fifth season (out of six since he transitioned to the bullpen in 2016) of sub-3.00 ERA work. The Cuba native has rather quietly been one of the sport’s most consistent, reliable relief arms. That’s in spite of the fact that Iglesias has spent the majority of his career in Cincinnati, which sports one of the game’s most hitter-friendly ballparks.

Impressive as Iglesias’ run prevention numbers are, his underlying metrics may be even better. The right-hander has punched out a strong 29.7% of batters faced over the course of his career, and he’s coming off a personal-best 37.7% strikeout rate. That’s the eighth-highest mark of the 138 relievers with 50+ innings pitched, while his massive 20.6% swinging strike rate trailed only Josh Hader among that same group.

While many relievers can struggle to harness high-octane stuff, Iglesias has had no such problems. His walk rates in each of the past three seasons have been far lower than average, and this past season’s 4.4% figure was among the ten lowest among relievers. Iglesias’ 33.3 percentage point gap between his strikeout and walk rates ranked third, as did his 2.06 SIERA.

The only real drawback in Iglesias’ game has been the longball. He’s generally a fly-ball pitcher, and that’s led to some issues keeping the ball in the yard. Iglesias has allowed homers at a higher than average clip in three of the past four years, including a 1.41 HR/9 mark in 2021. That’s a small red flag, but Iglesias is so effective at preventing baserunners that he often mitigates the damage done via the home run. Opponents reached base at just a .243 clip in 2021.

Iglesias’ reported contract terms land right in line with expectations. Entering the offseason, MLBTR forecasted a four-year, $56MM guarantee that Iglesias moderately tops. That came after he rejected Los Angeles’ $18.4MM qualifying offer, a decision that proved wise given the solid multi-year contract he managed. The Angels won’t directly forfeit a draft choice for re-signing their own free agent, although they are passing on the right to collect the compensation pick they’d have received had Iglesias signed elsewhere.

That’s a worthwhile trade-off for the win-now Angels, who’ll hope for continued excellence from Iglesias at the back end of the bullpen. He becomes the second and more expensive multi-year relief investment of the offseason for Los Angeles, who also signed southpaw Aaron Loup to a two-year deal. They’ll try to anchor a bullpen that was below-average in 2021, even including Iglesias’ stellar numbers.

The deal’s financial breakdown has yet to be reported, but it becomes another significant deal on the Angels’ books. Iglesias’ $10MM salary brings the club’s estimated 2022 commitments around $172MM, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. The deal’s $14.5MM luxury tax hit (which is based on average annual value as opposed to actual payment schedule) puts the Angels’ projected CBT number above $185MM.

The luxury tax thresholds in the next collective bargaining agreement have yet to be determined, but the Angels haven’t exceeded the threshold in more than a decade. They’ve never opened a season with a player payroll higher than last year’s $181MM mark, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Whether owner Arte Moreno is willing to push beyond that in 2022 remains to be seen, but there figures to be plenty of urgency to put a strong supporting cast around the Angels’ star core. Los Angeles could also have to deal with a tougher division than they have in years past, as the Rangers and Mariners have been among the most active teams this offseason.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic was first to report the Angels were nearing agreement with Iglesias on a four-year deal. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first to report the deal had been agreed upon. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the $58MM guarantee. Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register was first with the financial breakdown.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Cubs Sign Marcus Stroman

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The Cubs have agreed to terms with free agent starter Marcus Stroman, the team has now officially announced.  The Tidal Sports client will receive a three-year, $71MM contract with an opt-out after the second season, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan.  Passan says Stroman will earn $25MM plus a potential $2MM in escalators in each of the two seasons before he must decide whether to opt out of the remaining $21MM.  The contract does not contain a no-trade clause, MLBTR has learned.

After opting out of the 2020 campaign, Stroman accepted an $18.9MM qualifying offer from the Mets last winter. Stroman’s bet has paid off with a guarantee of $89.9MM over his first four free agent seasons spanning 2021-24. Entering the offseason, MLBTR ranked Stroman the #11 free agent overall, projecting him to receive a five-year, $110MM guarantee.

With Max Scherzer, Kevin Gausman and Robbie Ray all off the board, Stroman looks the best bet remaining to provide above-average innings over the next few years.  However, unless the Cubs add significant pieces, Stroman’s timeline doesn’t seem to match up with the club’s next window of contention, given the surprisingly short term and the opt-out clause.  On the other hand, the unexpected contract structure means the Cubs won’t be saddled with Stroman’s age-34 and 35 seasons as they would have with a five-year pact.

The 30-year-old Stroman doesn’t feature the high-octane, strikeout stuff those other top arms possess. Yet he’s nevertheless been a mid-rotation or better starter for essentially his entire career, thriving on the back of huge ground-ball rates. Stroman has induced grounders on over half the balls in play against him in every season as a big leaguer. His 50.8% mark in 2021 was a personal-low, but even that checked in about seven points above the league average for starters.

Those huge ground-ball tendencies — he was consistently over 60% in that category during his run with the Blue Jays — have kept Stroman largely immune to the increasing home run rate around the league. He’s never had a season allowing even one longball per nine innings pitched, an impressive achievement as the typical starter has allowed between 1.2 and 1.5 homers per nine over the past few years.

Stroman also owns strong control of his arsenal, headlined by a worm-burning sinker he uses a bit more than 40% of the time. He’s never had a season with a higher than average walk percentage, including an even 6% mark in 2021 that was a couple points lower than the 7.8% league rate. Beyond his fastball, the right-hander mixed in a slider, split and cutter more than 15% of the time, according to Statcast.

That repertoire has served Stroman well, as he’s reliably produced in recent seasons. He’s worked to a sub-4.00 ERA in four of his six seasons with 100+ innings pitched, including a personal-best 3.02 mark over 179 frames in 2021. Despite an atypically small frame for a starter, Stroman has also proven a consistent workhorse capable of shouldering fairly significant workloads. He’s started 32+ games and exceeded 175 innings in four of the past five full seasons, with his 19 starts and 102 1/3 frames in 2018 the lone exception. Going back to the start of 2016, he ranks fifteenth in innings pitched league-wide.

As an added bonus, Stroman is coming off his best season from a swing-and-miss perspective. He generated whiffs on a career-high 11.6% of his offerings in 2021, just north of the league mark. The New York native is typically below-average from both a strikeout and swinging strike perspective. But he’s proven capable of succeeding without many whiffs, and any uptick in swing-and-miss stuff could take his game to the next level.

In Chicago, Stroman will pair with Kyle Hendricks at the top of the rotation. Wade Miley has a spot locked down, with Adbert Alzolay also looking likely to claim a back-end spot. There’s certainly still room for upgrades over the likes of Justin Steele and Alec Mills, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, general manager Carter Hawkins and the rest of the front office further bolster that group.

Speculatively speaking, a high-strikeout arm might still be on the wish list. While Stroman’s an unquestionable upgrade to the rotation, his grounder and control oriented style broadly aligns with those of the rest of the Cubs’ starters. Chicago’s rotation ranked eighth in ground-ball rate in 2021 but finished third from the bottom in strikeout percentage. Adding some more swing-and-miss to that group could be desirable, although it’s also broadly apparent that the Cubs are content to pursue ground-ball pitchers and rely on the infield behind them to turn batted balls into outs.

The Cubs are in an organizational transition period, having traded away the core members of their 2016 World Series winner over the past year or so. The roster still seems to have too many holes to compete in 2022, with uncertainty at the back of the rotation and the position player group featuring a handful of journeyman stopgap types. Hoyer has consistently pushed back against the idea the Cubs were orchestrating a full rebuild, though, and their actions this offseason reflect that.

In addition to the Stroman signing, the Cubs claimed Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds and added backstop Yan Gomes on a two-year pact. That doesn’t preclude further trades off the big league roster — the Gomes signing seems to make a Willson Contreras deal particularly likely, for instance — but it’s clear the Cubs aren’t content to sit at the bottom of the NL Central without making any sort of effort to be competitive.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits players from receiving multiple qualifying offers over the course of their career. Because the Mets tagged Stroman with a QO over the 2020-21 winter, they weren’t able to do so this time around. They’ll allow him to depart without receiving any form of compensation, while the Cubs won’t forfeit any draft choices or international signing bonus space to bring him in. That’s no doubt appealing for a Chicago team that needs to continue to add an influx of young talent to the organization.

Matt Spiegel reported this afternoon that the sides were in discussions, while Jon Heyman of the MLB Network tweeted the parties were “in serious talks” shortly before Stroman’s announcement. 

Twins Sign Dylan Bundy

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The Twins announced they’ve signed starter Dylan Bundy to a one-year deal with a club option for 2023. The BBI Sports Group client will reportedly be guaranteed $5MM, taking the form of a $4MM salary in 2022 and at least a $1MM buyout on the $11MM option.

Bundy profiles as a buy-low option for a Minnesota club that needs to significantly overhaul its rotation this winter. The former top prospect had settled in as an up-and-down but capable starter with the Orioles over his first few seasons before seemingly realizing his long-awaited breakout in 2020. Acquired by the Angels over the previous offseason, Bundy worked 65 2/3 innings of 3.29 ERA ball with a strong 27% strikeout rate during the truncated season.

Entering 2021, Bundy looked to be one of the more appealing arms in this winter’s free agent class. Few players’ stocks were dealt a more significant hit over the intervening months, though, as the right-hander struggled with both underperformance and injury. Bundy pitched to a 6.78 ERA over the season’s first three months, eventually being relegated to the bullpen.

His strikeout percentage dropped six points prior to his bullpen conversion, while he allowed an alarming 2.1 homers per nine innings pitched. That was in line with issues keeping the ball in the yard he’d experienced in Baltimore, a significant turnaround from the 0.69 HR/9 he posted during his first season in Orange County.

The move to the bullpen didn’t work as intended, as the Oklahoma native continued to struggle in shorter stints. Making matters worse, he hit the injured list with a shoulder strain in late August. While he’d initially expressed hope regarding a potential return, that proved impossible. Ultimately, Bundy hit free agency for the first time coming off a career-worst 6.06 ERA and an extended absence due to an arm injury.

There’s no doubt the 2021 campaign was a “Murphy’s law” type season. Yet Bundy’s only a year removed from looking like at least a mid-rotation caliber arm, and there’s not a whole lot of financial risk for the Twins in hoping for a bounceback. With Kenta Maeda likely to miss much of the season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, the Twins have very little stability in the starting staff. Bailey Ober looks likely to have one spot after a quietly strong 2021 campaign, while rookie Joe Ryan pitched well down the stretch. There’s still plenty of need for more reliability in that group moving forward, and it’s likely president of baseball operations Derek Falvey, general manager Thad Levine and the rest of the front office will continue to scour the free agent and trade markets for starting pitching help.

Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported contract terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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