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Dodgers To Sign Kyle Tucker

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9:54pm: The deal includes $30MM in deferred money, Heyman reports. Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports that the deal will have a $57.1MM annual value for luxury tax purposes after accounting for the deferrals. That’ll give him the record for the largest annual salary by net present value in history.

9:04pm: It’s a four-year, $240MM contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Tucker can opt out after the 2027 season. There’s also an opt out after 2028, according to Passan.

8:53pm: Kyle Tucker is in agreement on a deal with the Dodgers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. It’s a short-term contract, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.

The two-time defending champions have done it again. Tucker is the latest superstar addition to what was already MLB’s most feared offense. Tucker slots into a lineup that already included Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Will Smith, Max Muncy, Teoscar Hernández and Tommy Edman. He’ll join Hernández and Andy Pages as the primary outfielders, with Edman also capable of logging center field action when he’s not at second base.

Los Angeles has four outfield prospects who rank prominently near the top of their farm system rankings. They reportedly wanted to avoid locking in long-term commitments as a result. They’ve accomplished that with one of the biggest annual values in the sport’s history. A four-year, $240MM deal would come with a $60MM AAV on the surface. It’s not yet clear to what extent, if any, potential deferred money will knock that number down in terms of net present value.

As it stands, Tucker’s deal contains the second-highest annual value in history. Ohtani technically landed a $70MM AAV on his 10-year, $700MM guarantee, though the massive deferrals involved meant it had a “true” annual value closer to $46MM. One should therefore view the $51MM annual salary on Juan Soto’s 15-year, $765M deal as the more accurate record holder.

Although Tucker was this offseason’s top free agent, he’s a clear step below the likes of Aaron Judge, Ohtani and Soto of the previous three winters. Tucker has been a consistent All-Star caliber player who’s a little outside the top tier of players in MLB. The fifth overall pick by the Astros in 2015, Tucker broke out in the shortened 2020 season after logging limited big league action in the two preceding years. He connected on 29 or 30 home runs in each of his first three full MLB campaigns, improving his offensive approach along the way.

Tucker was already a great hitter and seemed to be on his way to pulling closer to Judge, Soto and Ohtani with a monster start to the 2024 season. Tucker was out to a .266/.395/.584 slash with more walks than strikeouts through the first two months. He fouled a ball off his right leg and was placed on the injured list with what the Astros initially termed a shin contusion. It turned out to be much more serious, as subsequent testing revealed a fracture that kept him out of action for three months.

The four-time All-Star returned no worse for wear and had a fantastic September. The Astros nevertheless decided to field trade calls after the season. They were never going to meet Tucker’s asking price on an extension and felt they could cash him in for help elsewhere on the roster. They lined up a deal with the Cubs around the Winter Meetings that sent Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and prospect Cam Smith to Houston for Tucker’s final year of arbitration.

Tucker’s lone season in Chicago had its ups and downs. He got out to another blistering start, running a .284/.359/.524 slash with 12 homers through the first day of June. Tucker jammed his right thumb diving into second base on a stolen base attempt that day. He avoided the injured list, but subsequent testing revealed that he sustained a tiny fracture at the top of his hand between his ring finger and pinky.

The hand injury wasn’t viewed as a serious issue until Tucker’s performance began to suffer. That didn’t occur right away. His next few weeks were the finest of the season, in fact. Tucker slashed .311/.404/.578 across 25 games that month. Things went off the rails in July, as he batted .189/.325/.235 with just one home run over the next six weeks.

The existence of the hairline fracture wasn’t reported until the middle of August. Cubs officials acknowledged that Tucker had been injured in June but said  that he was fully healthy by the time the injury was revealed publicly. Maybe the thumb became a retroactive explanation for what was actually a simple slump, though it’s possible he developed some subtle bad habits in June as he tried to mitigate the pain of hitting through the break. Manager Craig Counsell gave Tucker a three-game mental reset towards the end of August before plugging him back into the middle of the order.

Tuker appeared to be getting back into a groove when he hit another speed bump. He strained his left calf in early September and landed on the injured list, costing him three weeks in the season’s final month. He finished the regular season with a .266/.377/.464 slash line in a little under 600 trips to the plate. He hit .259 with one homer in eight postseason games as the Cubs advanced to the NL Division Series.

The uneven second half soured some Cubs fans on the Tucker acquisition. His overall numbers were in line with his career marks. Tucker’s offense was 36 percentage points better than league average by wRC+. His lifetime .273/.358/.507 batting line is 38 points above par. Tucker has been in that range in four of the past five seasons. The only exception is his .289/.408/.585 showing over 78 games two years ago.

The ’24 season is probably an outlier, but the Dodgers should feel they’re adding one of the top 10-15 hitters in MLB. He doesn’t expand the strike zone and has a rare blend of plus contact skills and above-average power. Tucker has no issue hitting pitchers of either handedness. He doesn’t have the huge exit velocities of the sport’s premier sluggers, yet he’s a safe bet for 25-30 homers in a healthy season.

Tucker’s glove isn’t as strong at this stage of his career. He won a Gold Glove with Houston in 2022. His defensive grades and sprint speed have declined as he’s gotten into his late-20s. That presumably gave teams pause when considering a long-term investment. That’s especially true of a Dodgers team that wouldn’t be able to move him to designated hitter at any point over an eight-year deal. Tucker’s defense should remain serviceable in the short term. The Dodgers can comfortably plug him into right field and kick Hernández over to left if they don’t trade him.

More to come.

Rays, Angels, Reds Agree To Three-Team Trade Involving Josh Lowe, Gavin Lux

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The Rays, Angels and Reds agreed to a three-team trade that’ll send outfielder Josh Lowe to the Angels, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. Infielder Gavin Lux heads from Cincinnati to Tampa Bay alongside minor league pitcher Chris Clark, who comes over from the Angels. Cincinnati acquired lefty reliever Brock Burke from the Halos.

More to come.

Red Sox To Sign Ranger Suárez

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January 15: The contract includes a mutual option for 2031, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive. That doesn’t change much about the deal beyond allowing the Red Sox to kick some of the money back to the end of the 2030 season in the form of an option buyout.

January 14: The Red Sox are going to add left-hander Ranger Suárez to their already-strong rotation. It is reportedly a five-year deal worth $130MM for the Boras Corporation client. It appears to be fairly straightforward, reportedly not containing any deferrals, opt-outs or no-trade protection. The Sox have a full 40-man and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

The Sox came into the offseason with a rotation headlined by Garrett Crochet, followed by a notable gap to their other starters. They had a lot of options for back-end types and depth but were looking to bolster the front end.

“Because of the depth that we’ve built up over the last couple of years, we feel pretty good about just overall starting pitching, maybe No. 3-ish through No. 10-ish,” was how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow framed the situation in November. “And that’s not to take away from guys who are certainly capable of doing more, and more just to say I don’t think we’re going to spend a ton of time trying to add a No. 4, No. 5 starter.”

Since then, Breslow has made a couple of moves to alter that rotation group. He acquired Sonny Gray from the Cardinals and Johan Oviedo from the Pirates. They subtracted a bit from the depth by including Richard Fitts in the Gray deal and Hunter Dobbins in the Willson Contreras swap.

Gray is arguably the kind of #2 starter the club was looking for. His 4.28 earned run average in 2025 has some Boston fans disputing that assessment but he has a 3.63 ERA, 27% strikeout rate, 6.1% walk rate and 44.6% ground ball rate in 531 innings dating back to the start of 2023. FanGraphs ranks him fifth in wins above replacement among pitchers in that time, behind only Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, Logan Webb and Cristopher Sánchez.

Since the Gray deal, Boston has seemingly been more focused on upgrading its lineup and position player mix, targeting infielders like Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Ketel Marte, Brendan Donovan and Isaac Paredes.

The club has hit a bit of a wall there. Bregman has signed with the Cubs. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken Marte off the market. The Astros don’t seem to have much interest in moving Paredes. Bichette is still a free agent but it’s unclear if the Sox would be willing to go to the lengths necessary to sign him. Donovan should still be available but the Sox haven’t met their asking price, at least not yet.

In the wake of Bregman’s agreement with Chicago, Rob Bradford of WEEI as well as Sean McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive suggested Boston could switch their focus to starting pitching. Earlier today, Bradford suggested the club was getting more aggressive on the trade market but the Sox have gone to free agency instead.

The contract is notable on a few fronts. For one, Breslow has generally avoided long-term free agent deals since becoming Boston’s chief baseball officer. Coming into today, his longest deal for a free agent was to give Bregman three years, which turned into a one-year relationship when Bregman opted out. The Sox came into today as the only one of the 30 major league clubs to not have signed a free agent this winter. This deal will be a new benchmark for Breslow in terms of years and guarantee given to a free agent, as well as erasing Boston’s status as the only team not to spend money on free agency this offseason.

It’s also a notable deal for Suárez in a few different ways. For one thing, he was a fairly low-profile international signing of the Phillies at the start of his professional career, securing a bonus of just $25K. As he has become a major leaguer, he has pushed his salary up in arbitration with his strong results but his lack of volume has limited him. He just made $8.8MM in his final year of arbitration, relatively modest by modern standards, but will now be securing a much bigger payday than ever before.

Speaking of his strong results but limited overall workload, that impacted the view of his market coming into this winter. Broadly speaking, Suárez has been really good on a rate basis but he doesn’t throw especially hard and has dealt with some nagging injuries, impacting the overall quantity of his contributions.

He first became a full-time starter for the Phillies in 2022 and held a rotation job for four years. Over that span, he logged 588 1/3 innings with a 3.59 ERA. His 21.9% strikeout rate was around league average. His 7.5% walk rate was solid and his 50.8% ground ball rate quite good. He also earned a reputation as a cold-blooded playoff contributor, giving the Phils 42 2/3 postseason innings with a 1.48 ERA.

But his velocity has never been huge and has been trending down. His four-seam fastball averaged a bit over 93 miles per hour in 2022 and 2023. That dropped to 91.8 mph in 2024 and 91.3 mph last year. His primary pitch, his sinker, averaged just 90.1 mph last year.

He also still hasn’t really pitched a full big league season. He hasn’t had any major injury concerns but has had scattered issues over the years, with lower back problems being a recurring thorn. Thanks to those sporadic health problems, he’s never hit the 30-start mark or the 160-inning plateau in any season as a big leaguer.

Given his clear skills but also his question marks, MLBTR predicted Suárez for a five-year, $115MM deal at the beginning of the offseason, $23MM in terms of average annual value. The top of the free agent starting pitching market has been slow to move this winter. Dylan Cease and the Blue Jays quickly found each other but it’s been a bit tepid otherwise. Prior to this, no other starter apart from Cease signed a deal longer than than three years or for more than $75MM. Tatsuya Imai settled for three years and $54MM, significantly below the expectations from the outset of the offseason.

As Suárez and Framber Valdez lingered unsigned into the new year, it was fair to wonder if they would meet the initial expectations. But with this deal, Suárez has not only met MLBTR’s prediction but has surpassed it. He has matched the length with an extra $3MM in terms of average annual value, getting to $26MM AAV.

Despite some concerns with Suárez, the move gives Boston one of the best rotations in baseball, if not the very best. Crochet is the clear ace. Suárez and Gray will have two spots behind him, followed by Brayan Bello. Oviedo seems to be in a decent position to land the #5 spot but he would also have competition from guys like Patrick Sandoval and Kutter Crawford. It’s possible Tanner Houck jumps into the mix late in the year, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in August.

Prospects Connelly Early and Payton Tolle made big league debuts late in 2025 and could push for jobs as well. Kyle Harrison, David Sandlin, Shane Drohan and Tyler Uberstine are also on the 40-man roster. Those latter six names all have options and either have limited big league experience or none at all, so they could all be sent to the minors as depth. Crawford has a decent amount of big league experience but is still optionable, so it’s possible for him to be squeezed to Worcester as well.

But it also seems fair to wonder if this Suárez deal sets the Red Sox up to trade some starting pitching for the infield upgrade they didn’t get when Bregman slipped through their fingers. They have been connected to Donovan many times and have already lined up a few trades with Chaim Bloom, Boston’s former chief baseball officer who is now president of baseball operations with the Cardinals.

Donovan isn’t the only option out there. The Sox were also connected to Marte a bunch this winter. The Diamondbacks have reportedly taken him off the market but perhaps there’s some scenario where Breslow puts some big prospect names on the table and makes them consider it. Nico Hoerner’s name has also come up in some trade rumors after the Cubs signing Bregman. If the Phillies can sign Bichette, they are expected to trade Alec Bohm or Bryson Stott to make room. Jake Cronenworth of the Padres has been in a few rumors.

All those players would have varying level of trade value due to their different salaries and years of control, but the same is also true of Boston’s pitchers. Early and Tolle are big prospects and would only be given up for a big return. Sandoval has one year left on his contract and has been injured for most of the past two years, so his trade value is far more marginal. Bello has even been in some rumors and he would be somewhere in between, as he is owed $50.5MM over the next four years and has been more okay than great.

Since it feels likely that at least one more significant move is coming, the club’s financial picture is probably still in flux. For now, RosterResource pegs the club’s payroll at $216MM with a competitive balance tax calculation of $266MM. That’s assuming the Suárez deal is broken down evenly at $26MM per year, as the actual breakdown hasn’t been publicly reported yet. If it’s front-loaded or back-loaded, that could alter the actual payroll. However, the CBT is calculated based on a player’s AAV, so that won’t change.

The Sox avoided the tax in 2023 and 2024. They went narrowly over the line in 2025, paying a tax bill of just $1.5MM. That will make them second-time payors in 2026, giving them a base tax rate of 30% for going over the first threshold of $244MM. The second threshold is $264MM and the Sox would pay a 42% on further spending above that line. If they go beyond $284MM, the tax rate would jump to 75% for spending above that line and their top pick in the 2027 draft would be dropped by ten spots.

Speaking of the draft, the Sox are going to be impacted by this Suárez signing in 2026. Suárez rejected a qualifying offer from the Phillies, meaning the Sox are subject to the associated penalties for signing him. Since the Sox paid the tax last year, they have to forfeit their second- and fifth-highest draft picks this summer, in addition to losing $1MM in international bonus pool space. The Phillies will receive a compensation pick after the fourth round of the upcoming draft.

Prior to this deal with the Red Sox, Suárez was connected to the Orioles, Astros and Mets, though other clubs presumably had interest even if they weren’t connected to him in public reports. For the teams who missed out on Suárez, there are still some options they can turn to, despite the relatively late stage of the offseason.

Valdez and Zac Gallen are the top two free agents, with Chris Bassitt, Justin Verlander, Lucas Giolito and others still unsigned. The trade market still has some potential options, including MacKenzie Gore and Freddy Peralta. Valdez has to be pleased with Suárez getting a deal beyond expectations even at this part of the calendar. They are fairly similar pitchers as groundballers. Valdez is a bit older but has the more impressive track record overall.

Jon Heyman of The New York Post. first reported that the Sox would be signing Suárez. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported the length and guarantee, as well as the lack of deferrals and opt-outs. Chris Cotillo of MassLive first reported the lack of a no-trade clause. Photos courtesy of Bill Streicher, Brad Penner, Imagn Images

Rockies To Sign Willi Castro To Two-Year Deal

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The Rockies and utility player Willi Castro have agreed to a two-year deal, reports Jorge Castillo of ESPN. The ISE Baseball client will be guaranteed $12.8MM, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Colorado has a full 40-man roster and will need to make a corresponding move to make this official.

Castro, 29 in April, just finished a strong three-year run as one of the better multi-positional players in the sport. That run ended with a deep slump just before he hit free agency but he has still secured a nice deal for himself.

He was non-tendered by the Tigers after the 2022 season and then landed with the Twins via a minor league deal ahead of the 2023 campaign. That minor league pact turned into a huge win for Minnesota. Castro cracked the Opening Day roster in 2023 and went on to have a strong season, getting into 124 games and stepping to the plate 409 times. The switch-hitter launched nine home runs and drew walks at an 8.3% clip. His .257/.339/.411 batting line led to a 107 wRC+, indicating he was seven percent above average at the plate overall. He also stole 33 bases in 38 attempts.

Defensively, he bounced all around the diamond, spending time in all three outfield spots and the three infield positions to the left of first base. He got strong marks almost everywhere the Twins put him. He even got a few mop-up appearances on the mound. The total package added up to 2.5 wins above replacement on the season, according to FanGraphs.

His 2024 season ended up being quite similar. He slashed .247/.331/.385 for a 106 wRC+, swiped 14 bags and played every position except for catcher and first base. His fWAR total nudged up to 2.9 in slightly more playing time.

Last year, he was on essentially the same pace through the trade deadline. He got into 86 games for the Twins, had a .245 /.335 /.407 batting line, 109 wRC+, and nine stolen bases while moving all around.

The Twins fell out of the race and pivoted to selling at the deadline. They flipped Castro to the Cubs for minor league pitchers Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong. Castro’s performance plummeted after the swap. He slashed .170/.245/.240 for a wRC+ of just 40. He wasn’t helped by a .222 batting average on balls in play but the Cubs scaled back his playing time regardless. He only started two of the final 11 games of the regular season. He appeared in two playoff games for the Cubs but without getting sent to the plate.

That was unfortunate timing, with Castro just heading to the open market, but it was also only 110 plate appearances. It seemed possible that clubs would still value his versatility and would focus more on the positives of that three-year run, overlooking the poor finish. At the beginning of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Castro for a two-year, $14MM deal. In December, it was reported that Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Colorado were interested in Castro. The Rockies have landed him by giving him a solid two-year deal just below MLBTR’s prediction.

The Rockies don’t have a lot of certainty on their roster, which is to be expected for a team that just lost 119 games, getting to the century mark in the loss column for a third straight year. They tried bolstering the roster last winter with veteran utility signings. They gave Thairo Estrada $4MM and Kyle Farmer $3.25MM, both on one-year deals. Neither panned out. Estrada was injured for most of the year and hit just .253/.285/.370 in the 39 games he was able to play. Farmer avoided the injured list but put up an even less impressive line of .227/.280/.365.

Ideally, Castro will move past his struggles with the Cubs and return to form. Where he plays will depend upon what happens with the other young players on the Colorado roster. The outfield playing time will likely be divvied up to some combination of Brenton Doyle, Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak and Jordan Beck.

Ezequiel Tovar will be the regular at shortstop but the rest of the infield is fairly wide open. Adael Amador could play second but he also has just 164 big league plate appearances with a .176/.242/.250 line. Third baseman Kyle Karros got 156 plate appearances last year but hit just .226/.308/.277. Tyler Freeman will be in the mix somewhere as another multi-positional guy but he’s also coming off a subpar season. Ryan Ritter can also bounce around a bit but he has a .241/.296/.337 line in his 207 big league appearances.

With the Rockies so far from contention, they will be focused on development and will want to have playing time open for anyone in that group who earns it. Castro will likely change positions throughout the year depending on the health and performance of all those other guys. If his offense gets back to where it was during his time in Minnesota, then the Rockies will likely make him available on the trade block this summer, as they aren’t likely to return to contention during the course of this contract.

RosterResource now estimates the Rockies for a payroll of $110MM, assuming the money on this deal is equally distributed across the two years. They spent $124MM on last year’s club and could still have some powder dry if they’re planning for a similar level of spending this year. Earlier this month, general manager Josh Byrnes expressed a desire to add a couple of veterans to the rotation. They have since signed Michael Lorenzen but could still have room for one more starter. It’s also possible to see room for some relief pitchers or perhaps another infielder.

For clubs who missed on Castro, the free agent market still features a couple of other utility guys, including Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ramón Urías, Adam Frazier, Enrique Hernández, Jon Berti, Jorge Mateo and others.

Photo courtesy of Jordan Godfree, Matt Blewett, Imagn Images

Rockies Sign Michael Lorenzen

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Jan. 15: The Rockies have formally announced the signing.

Jan. 7: The Rockies are in agreement with Michael Lorenzen on a one-year, $8MM contract, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The deal includes a $9MM club option for the 2027 season. Colorado has an available 40-man roster spot and will finalize the deal once Lorenzen passes a physical. He’s represented by CAA Sports.

It’s the first MLB signing of the winter for Colorado, meaning it is also Paul DePodesta’s first notable pickup as their head of baseball operations. (The Red Sox are now the only team that hasn’t signed a big league free agent this offseason.) It’s likely to be the first of a few pitching adds for the rebuilding club. General manager Josh Byrnes said this week that they were hoping to bring in two experienced starters.

The Rockies very rarely add to their rotation via free agency. This is the first time they’ve added a free agent starter on a $5MM+ guarantee since the Kyle Kendrick signing in 2015. Coors Field obviously isn’t a preferred destination for most pitchers. A seven-year streak of finishing fourth or fifth in the NL West doesn’t help matters.

One thing they can certainly offer is opportunity. Lorenzen would be a sixth starter or swing arm for a lot of teams. He’ll get a guaranteed rotation spot in Colorado, where he lands behind Kyle Freeland as their most established arms. The 34-year-old righty has spent the past season and a half with the Royals. He worked at the back of Kansas City’s rotation for most of that time, including 26 starts last year. Lorenzen pitched to a 4.64 earned run average over 141 2/3 innings.

A multi-inning reliever early in his career with the Reds, Lorenzen prioritized a rotation opportunity upon getting to free agency after the 2021 season. He has bounced around on a handful of one-year deals that have generally given him a back-end starting job. This is the fifth consecutive offseason in which he commanded exactly one year on an MLB contract. The deals have all guaranteed between $4.5MM and $8.5MM and have come with five different teams: the Angels, Tigers, Rangers, and Royals. He has also been traded twice and is now on his seventh team overall.

Lorenzen has surpassed 130 innings in each of the past three seasons. He has required an injured list stint in four consecutive years, but a 2022 shoulder strain led to his only lengthy absence. His recent IL stints have been for minor issues: groin, hamstring, neck and oblique strains — none of which cost him more than a month.

The 6’3″ righty works with one of the deepest arsenals of any pitcher in MLB. Statcast’s tracking metrics identity seven distinct pitches, none of which he uses more than a quarter of the time. His four-seam fastball checks in around 94 MPH. He also throws a sinker, changeup, and four breaking pitches (slider, curveball, cutter, sweeper). Nothing stands out as plus in isolation, but he carves out decent results by mixing and matching. Lorenzen has a 4.10 ERA with a modest 19.3% strikeout rate against an average 8.7% walk percentage over the past four seasons.

Anything close to that production would make him one of Colorado’s best pitchers. Freeland was their only pitcher who made more than six starts and allowed fewer than 6.33 earned runs per nine innings. The rotation’s 6.65 ERA was historically terrible. Germán Márquez isn’t expected back in free agency. Antonio Senzatela was demoted to the bullpen late in the season and is expected to remain in long relief.

Freeland and Lorenzen are locked into the top two rotation spots. Ryan Feltner, Chase Dollander, Gabriel Hughes, Bradley Blalock, Tanner Gordon, McCade Brown and waiver claim Keegan Thompson are the other options on the 40-man roster. Feltner is the only one of the bunch who has had any kind of MLB success, and he’s coming off an injury-plagued season. Dollander is a former top 10 pick who held his own on the road but was terrible at Coors Field as a rookie. They’re penciled into the rotation for now, while the fifth starter job would be wide open if they don’t succeed in bringing in anyone else this offseason.

Lorenzen will eat some innings and raise the floor when he takes the ball. He’s not the caliber of pitcher who’s going to net a huge trade return, but the Rox will hope for a solid first half that allows them to flip him for a lottery ticket prospect at the deadline.

Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff, Imagn Images.

Latest On Mets’, Blue Jays’ Pursuit Of Kyle Tucker

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8:55am: ESPN’s Jeff Passan was a guest on Sportsnet in Toronto this morning and reported on air that the Blue Jays have been “the only team that has shown the willingness to go as deep as 10 years, potentially” (video link). Passan adds that a decision from Tucker could occur before the end of the week.

7:08am: The Mets have made a four-year offer to star outfielder Kyle Tucker, according to a report from Mike Puma of the New York Post. MLBNetwork Radio’s Jim Duquette suggested yesterday that the Mets were “likely” to extend their offer to four years yesterday. Tyler Ward reported as early as yesterday morning (prior to Duquette’s report) that the Mets had offered $200MM over four years.

Tucker, 29 this weekend, has had an unusually quiet market by the standards set by other recent top free agents like Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge, each of whom signed in December. Things have begun to ramp up in a big way this past week, however, and all signs have pointed towards a trio of teams emerging as the most likely landing spots for the multi-time All-Star: the Mets, the Blue Jays, and the Dodgers. Previous reporting has indicated that the Blue Jays have a long-term deal on the table for Tucker, while the Mets have preferred a shorter-term arrangement at a premium average annual value. Concrete reporting regarding the Dodgers’ pursuit of Tucker has been minimal, but previous comments by the front office throughout the winter have suggested a hesitance towards adding another long-term deal to their aging roster and blocking elite top outfield prospects like Zyhir Hope and Josue De Paula long-term.

Reporting on the Mets’ offers to Tucker has varied throughout the week. Initial reports suggested the club had made a three-year offer to Tucker within the $120MM to $140MM range, and later reporting indicated that the Mets had offered a $50MM AAV without a specific number of years attached to that report. This latest report of a four-year offer also comes without a specific AAV attached to it. That leaves open the possibility that New York has multiple offers on the table for Tucker, with varying annual salaries and contract structures that all fall under the more general umbrella of short-term with relatively high annual salaries. Of course, it’s also possible that the Mets have simply raised their offer over the past few days.

If owner Steve Cohen and his front office have offered Tucker $200MM or more over the next four seasons, that would surely be a difficult package to turn down without an incredible long-term offer. Tucker would be in line to re-enter free agency ahead of his age-33 season, and while he’d likely need to settle for another shorter-term contract headed into his mid-thirties it’s worth remembering that Kyle Schwarber landed a five-year, $150MM contract with the Phillies as a DH-only slugger headed into his own age-33 season earlier this winter. In that context, it’s not difficult to imagine Tucker earning $350MM or more over the remainder of his playing career if he were to complete a four-year deal at a $50MM AAV and sign another contract or two afterwards. It’s also possible (and perhaps even likely) that a shorter-term arrangement would come with at least one opt-out opportunity somewhere in the deal that would make it even easier for Tucker to return to free agency in search of a more lucrative offer.

On the other hand, it’s not hard to argue that Tucker is worth the exact sort of incredible long-term offer that would be worth passing on $200MM over four years in favor of. An All-Star in four consecutive seasons, Tucker finished fifth in AL MVP voting back in 2023 and since then has posted 9.2 bWAR and 8.7 fWAR in just 214 games with a .274/.388/.507 (152 wRC+) slash line to show for it. A tough second half with the Cubs last year and injuries that have limited him to that relatively light volume of games over the past two years have seemingly caused some level of concern among interested clubs, but the upside of adding a perennial MVP candidate to the middle of the lineup in his prime years is undeniable.

MLBTR’s own prediction for Tucker’s contract at the outset of the offseason was an 11-year, $400MM pact. That sort of contract would be a no-brainer to choose over a shorter-term deal, even at a $50MM AAV. How far below that figure a long-term offer could come in before Tucker would start to more seriously consider a short-term, high-AAV pact would surely depend on Tucker’s own personal tolerance for risk and desire for stability. It would certainly be bold to eschew something even in the range of the $330MM deal Bryce Harper landed in Philadelphia during the 2018-19 offseason, but a fair counterargument to that would be that Harper himself well might have come out ahead financially had he instead signed the reported short-term, $45MM AAV offer he received from the Dodgers that winter and returned to the market in a few years’ time.

Wherever Tucker will ultimately land, and whatever contract structure he will ultimately settle on, it’s increasingly likely his free agency is hurtling towards a conclusion in the coming days. The New York Post’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this morning that a decision from Tucker’s camp could come as soon as today, and given the frenzy of reporting over the past few days it seems likely that the parties involved are all in the process of making their top offers as Tucker nears a decision.

Cubs Sign Alex Bregman

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The Cubs have made their third-largest signing in franchise history official, announcing Wednesday that they’ve signed third baseman Alex Bregman to a five-year contract that’ll reportedly guarantee him $175MM. Bregman, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a full no-trade clause. Unlike his prior contract with the Red Sox, there are no opt-out opportunities. The deal reportedly includes $70MM of deferred money, dropping the net present value from a $35MM average annual value to something in the $30-31MM range. A full breakdown of the deferrals can be found at the bottom of this post. He’ll be introduced in a press conference tomorrow morning at 10:30am CT.

When last offseason’s proposals fell short of Bregman’s expectations, he pivoted to a heavily-deferred three-year, $120MM deal with the Red Sox. The quality of his 2025 season, plus his ineligibility for a qualifying offer this time around, led to this long-term deal.

MLBTR projected a six-year, $160MM contract for Bregman back in November. He ultimately landed a bit shy of that on a five-year term, when accounting for deferrals. It’s still the largest average annual value in Cubs franchise history, and the total guarantee trails only Jason Heyward ($184MM) and Dansby Swanson ($177MM). The inclusion of deferrals is a notable departure for the Ricketts family ownership group; just last offseason, they appeared staunchly against utilizing deferred money in free agent negotiations.

For the Cubs, the addition of Bregman is the biggest splash in an active offseason. The club acquired young starter Edward Cabrera from the Marlins three days ago, adding upside to the rotation at the expense of a top-50 prospect in Owen Caissie. The Cubs have largely rebuilt their bullpen with a quintet of free agent signings: Phil Maton, Hunter Harvey, Caleb Thielbar, Hoby Milner, and Jacob Webb.  They also retained swingman Colin Rea and starter Shota Imanaga.

Bregman gives the Cubs a major offensive upgrade without the loss of a draft pick, as he rejected a qualifying offer from the Astros in 2024. His salary brings the team’s projected 2026 payroll to $231MM, a full $25MM over last year’s $206MM figure, according to RosterResource. Meanwhile, their CBT payroll stands around $243MM for 2026, putting the Cubs just shy of the first luxury tax threshold.  The Cubs did not exceed the CBT in 2025, so they’ll reside in the lightest tax bracket if they go over in ’26.

Bregman, 31, played in 114 games with Boston this year, making 495 plate appearances. Although he missed a month and a half with a right quad strain, he continued to excel on offense, batting .273/.360/.462 and grading out 25% better than average by wRC+. After posting a career-low 6.9% walk rate in his final year with the Astros, Bregman bumped that up to 10.3% in 2025. He maintained his reputation as a high-contact hitter, with his 14.1% strikeout rate grading out in the 88th percentile. His 90.1 mph average exit velocity and 44.4% hard-hit rate were both career bests. He also continued to perform well defensively, earning 3 Outs Above Average for his work at third base. Overall, Bregman’s 2025 contributions were good for 3.5 fWAR and his third career All-Star nomination.

A lot of that came from his red-hot first two months. At the time of his injury, Bregman had a 156 wRC+ through 226 PA. His production following his return was more uneven. He posted a 128 wRC+ in July, followed by a 108 wRC+ in August and just a 76 wRC+ in September. In the first half, Bregman was 52% better than average by wRC+. In the second half, he was right around average.

Though he wasn’t his usual self in the last two months of the year, Bregman’s lengthy track record still made him one of the top free agents in this year’s class. Since debuting with the Astros in 2016, he has batted .272/.365/.481 with 209 home runs and a 133 wRC+. His first two All-Star appearances came in 2018-19. Bregman averaged 8.1 fWAR and finished in the Top 5 in AL MVP voting in both years, finishing as the runner-up in 2019.

While he hasn’t reached those heights in the years since, Bregman has still been a well-above-average hitter. He has posted a wRC+ between 117 and 137 in every year from 2020-25. Bregman’s defense has also held firm. Since the start of 2020, he has been worth 10 DRS and 17 OAA. He ranks eighth among qualified third basemen in that span by OAA.

That track record, Bregman’s excellent clubhouse reputation, and his still-excellent 2025 drew ample interest in free agency. The Red Sox were clearly keen on a reunion, with recent reports indicating they had made him an “aggressive” offer. Outside of them and the Cubs, his known suitors included the Tigers, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays (before they signed Kazuma Okamoto). The Tigers and Cubs were interested in Bregman last offseason as well. Detroit reportedly offered him six years and $171.5MM, albeit with significant deferrals. Chicago’s offer was in the four-year, $115MM range. One year later, the Cubs put forth more than $40MM more to lock him up, even when considering the surprising deferred money.

Bregman likely sought a $200MM guarantee during the 2024-25 offseason. He got to $215MM on paper in total, though deferred money on both contracts probably puts him a little short of a true $200MM.  Regardless, returning to the market after opting out of a short-term deal is a strategy we’ve seen Boras execute successfully with Bregman, Carlos Rodon, Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, and Pete Alonso in recent years, with Cody Bellinger serving as the next test case.

With Bregman slotting in at third base, the most impacted player on the Cubs’ roster is incumbent third baseman Matt Shaw. As a rookie, Shaw posted a .226/.295/.394 line in 437 plate appearances, good for a 93 wRC+. Factoring in his serviceable defense (-1 DRS), Shaw was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2025. That was acceptable production for the rookie and former top prospect, though there are clear areas for improvement heading into his sophomore season. Shaw’s average exit velocity and hard-hit rate ranked in the third and seventh percentiles, respectively. He also struggled against fastballs, with a -6 run value against sinkers and a -1 value against four-seamers.

Shaw came up through the system as a middle infielder before shifting to third base in earnest in 2024. At present, Swanson and Nico Hoerner occupy the shortstop and second base spots on the big-league roster. Swanson is under contract through 2029 and won’t be moving off short any time soon. Hoerner has been an above-average hitter and excellent defender in the past four seasons, tallying 17.5 fWAR. Hoerner moved to second base in 2023 in deference to Swanson.

With the 28-year-old Hoerner eligible for free agency after 2026 – with earning power likely to get a boost from his ability to play shortstop – his name has surfaced in trade rumors this winter. The best 2026 Cubs team has Hoerner at second base and Shaw in a utility infield role, but it’s at least conceivable that either player could be dealt this offseason.

For Red Sox fans, the past seven months have provided a painful sequence of events at third base.  Rafael Devers was dealt to the Giants in a surprise June blockbuster, and now Bregman has departed as well. According to Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause.”

The Red Sox, the only team yet to have signed a Major League free agent this winter, could turn to Bo Bichette to play second base.  Bichette will likely require a long-term deal of his own, however, and chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has yet to sign a free agent for more than Bregman’s three years (which only lasted one).

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first broke news of the signing, with ESPN’s Jeff Passan adding terms and Bob Nightengale of USA Today providing further details. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the deal includes deferred money.

The full details of the deferrals were reported by Jay Cohen of The Associated Press. $15MM is deferred in 2026 and 2029, $10MM in 2027 and 2028, then $20MM in 2030. He will be paid the deferred money via eight annual instalment each July 31st from 2034 to 2041.

Cardinals Trade Nolan Arenado To Diamondbacks

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After more than a yearlong residency on the rumor mill, Nolan Arenado’s time in St. Louis is over. The Cardinals announced Tuesday that they’ve traded Arenado and cash to the D-backs in exchange for minor league right-hander Jack Martinez (Arizona’s eighth-round pick in the 2025 draft). The Diamondbacks are reportedly on the hook for a total of $11MM of the remaining $42MM owed to Arenado over the next two seasons. The Cardinals owe the remaining $31MM. Arizona’s 40-man roster had a vacancy but is now at capacity with the addition of Arenado.

With the Cardinals entering a rebuild under new president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom, trading the 34-year-old Arenado (35 in April) has been a primary goal this offseason. St. Louis has finally achieved that goal but paid a hefty price to do so. Arizona will be on the hook for just $5MM this season and $6MM next year.

Three years ago, a salary dump of Arenado would’ve been hard to imagine. He was a National League MVP finalist after hitting .293/.358/.533 with 30 home runs and his typical brand of elite defense during that 2022 season. His offense slipped considerably in 2023 (.266/.315/.459) but was still north of league average. It dipped to about average in 2024, however, and plummeted well below par this past season.

In 436 plate appearances with the Cardinals in 2025, Arenado turned in an anemic .237/.289/.377 batting line. By measure of wRC+, he was 16% worse than an average hitter at the plate. Arenado’s 12 home runs were his lowest in a full season since his rookie year back in 2013. This year’s 6.4% walk rate was his lowest since 2015. When considering that his 34.1% chase rate on pitches off the plate was also his worst since 2015, that’s not particularly surprising. Arenado’s 11.2% strikeout rate was one of the lowest in MLB and one of the best in his career, but he also posted his highest-ever infield fly rate — 16.5% of his fly-balls were harmless pop-ups — and recorded some of the worst exit velocity and hard-hit numbers of his career.

Suffice it to say, Arenado’s decline at the plate has been steep. He still possesses plus contact skills but will need to scale back his chase rate and cut out some of those weak pop-ups if he’s to improve in a meaningful way. Fortunately for Arenado, he’s going to a more favorable offensive environment than the one he’s been calling home in St. Louis. While Phoenix’s Chase Field isn’t the hitters’ haven it once was, it plays largely neutral to right-handed power now — a stark gain for Arenado relative to St. Louis’ Busch Stadium, which is the fifth-worst park for right-handed home run power over the past three years, per Statcast’s Park Factors.

Prior to adding Arenado, the Diamondbacks had been involved in the market for Alex Bregman. A match there always seemed like something of a long shot, given Arizona’s intent to reduce payroll in 2026, but the interest was legitimate. The Snakes quickly pivoted and brought in a much more affordable option to hold down the hot corner for the next two seasons. Arenado’s glove has also taken some steps back in recent years, but he’s still an above-average defender. He’ll give manager Torey Lovullo a quality pair of defenders on the left side of the infield, joining breakout shortstop Geraldo Perdomo in that regard.

Acquiring Arenado leaves the Diamondbacks with little opportunity for former No. 6 overall pick and top prospect Jordan Lawlar. Perdomo’s breakout appeared to push Lawlar down the defensive spectrum to third base, but he looked overmatched both with the glove and in the batter’s box during his first few tests against MLB pitching. The D-backs were considering giving him some time in the outfield, and perhaps with Jake McCarthy now in Colorado following this weekend’s trade, there’ll be a clearer path to that experiment. If not, Lawlar has a minor league option remaining and can be sent back to Triple-A (where he’s routinely thrashed opposing pitchers) — or even included in a potential trade package to address needs elsewhere on the roster.

Even with the Snakes looking to cut payroll, the addition of that fraction of Arenado’s contract amounts to little more than a footnote. He’s effectively replacing a league-minimum player, so this trade adds a net $4.2MM to the team’s books. Per RosterResource’s estimates, that brings Arizona’s payroll just north of $170MM. That’s more than $17MM shy of last year’s Opening Day payroll. An exact target isn’t clear, but there should be room to add a reliever or two, at the very least, and further trades could always change the payroll outlook one way or another.

If the money changing hands (and the frequent reporting in the year-plus leading up to today’s trade) wasn’t indicative enough that this amounts to a salary dump for St. Louis, the return should be. Martinez hasn’t pitched an inning in professional ball yet. The Diamondbacks selected him with their eighth-round pick last year out of Arizona State University. His $167K signing bonus checked in south of his No. 243 overall selection’s $223K slot value.

A 6’4″, 215-pound righty, Martinez started his college career playing Division-III ball before transferring twice and ending up in the Sun Devils’ rotation as a senior. He was tagged for a 5.47 ERA through 15 starts during his senior year. It’s not an encouraging number, but Martinez punched out 32.3% of his opponents and can run his fastball up to 97 mph, per MLB.com’s scouting report. He has a four-pitch mix with a changeup serving as his best secondary offering, but Martinez is a pure lottery ticket for the Cardinals’ reshaped player development department.

A year ago, the Cardinals thought they had worked out a trade to send Arenado the Astros. Arenado, however, invoked his no-trade protection to nix that arrangement, reportedly due to reservations about the Astros’ commitment to contending; Houston had just traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs days prior to the nixed Arenado deal. Heading into the current offseason, Arenado was forthcoming about the fact that he’d be more open-minded to offseason trade scenarios than he was last winter.

That clearly seems to be the case, but the D-backs might’ve been a viable landing spot for him even if he were continuing to remain selective. Arizona may be scaling back payroll, but their signings of Merrill Kelly and Michael Soroka — plus their reported interest in the aforementioned Bregman — all signal a commitment to try to field a contender in 2026. Beyond that, Arenado is a Southern California native with a home in Arizona. There are geographic benefits that surely played into his decision to waive that no-trade clause for a move to the desert.

For the Cardinals, moving Arenado now clears a relatively nominal sum from the long-term books and furthers their goal of creating opportunities for younger players. It remains to be seen whether Arenado’s third base reps will go to Nolan Gorman, top prospect JJ Wetherholt or even former top prospect/third baseman-turned-outfielder Jordan Walker. Whoever takes up regular work at the hot corner will be a more viable long-term option at the position than Arenado is as he enters his mid-30s.

The trade of Arenado is the third of a big-name veteran on a large contract for the Cardinals this offseason. They’ve already traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to the Red Sox. Those players were shipped out in separate deals, with St. Louis eating notable portions of money in those trades, too. Between Gray, Contreras and now Arenado, the Cardinals will be shelling out $59MM over the next two seasons to three players who are no longer on their books.

Eating that amount of money to facilitate the trades of three former All-Stars is unprecedented, but the Cardinals have been clear about their intent to rebuild the organization from the ground up, modernizing the player development department, analytics staff and various other components of the team’s baseball operations setup — all while affording younger and more controllable players the opportunity to establish themselves in the majors. With three pricey veterans gone, much of the heavy lifting has been taken care of, but the Cardinals are still widely expected to trade second baseman Brendan Donovan and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero before the season begins.

Katie Woo of The Athletic first reported that the two sides were in serious discussions. John Gambadoro of 98.7 FM Arizona Sports broke the news that an agreement was in place and added that Martinez was going back to St. Louis. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic first reported details on the cash changing hands.

Marlins Trade Ryan Weathers To Yankees

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The Marlins moved another starter, trading Ryan Weathers to the Yankees for four prospects: outfielders Dillon Lewis and Brendan Jones and infielders Dylan Jasso and Juan Matheus. New York already had two openings on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding moves were necessary. Both teams have announced the deal.

It’s the second significant rotation move in as many weeks for Miami. The Fish swapped Edward Cabrera to the Cubs for a package led by rookie outfielder Owen Caissie on Wednesday. It’s surprising to see them pull the trigger on another deal to subtract a controllable starter. Cabrera and Weathers have each had trouble staying healthy, and Miami evidently preferred to stockpile position players over the pair of talented but risky starters.

Weathers, a 26-year-old lefty, is the son of longtime big leaguer David Weathers (who coincidentally was traded from the Florida Marlins to the Yankees at the 1996 deadline). This is the second time that Ryan Weathers finds himself on the move. The Padres selected him with the #7 overall pick in the 2018 draft. He made it to the majors within three years, no small feat for a pitcher who signed out of high school, but struggled in scattered looks with San Diego. The Friars dealt him to Miami at the ’23 deadline for first baseman Garrett Cooper.

The Weathers acquisition came a few months before Miami installed Peter Bendix atop baseball operations. Weathers has shown mid-rotation potential over the past couple seasons but hasn’t been able to put together a full showing. A strained index finger on his throwing hand cost him three months in 2024. He missed the first six weeks last year after suffering a forearm strain during Spring Training. Weathers returned and pitched well over five starts before going down again — this time with a lat strain that knocked him out into September.

Weathers has been limited to 24 starts and 125 innings over the past two years. He turned in a 3.74 earned run average with a solid 22% strikeout rate and lower than average 6.8% walk percentage. Weathers has pushed his average fastball into the 96-97 MPH range and can miss bats with his changeup and sweeper. At full health, he has looked like a potential third or fourth starter. He hasn’t been healthy for more than a couple months at a time since 2023.

Miami and Weathers settled on a $1.35MM salary last week. This offseason was his first of arbitration eligibility. He’ll go through the process at least twice more and won’t hit free agency until the 2028-29 offseason at the earliest. The Yankees are currently in the third tier of luxury tax penalization and taxed at a 95% rate on spending up to $304MM. Weathers’ modest salary means New York only takes on roughly $1.3MM in taxes to add him.

There’s also some roster flexibility, as the southpaw has one minor league option remaining. Weathers should break camp in Aaron Boone’s rotation assuming he gets through Spring Training healthy. Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón will open the season on the injured list, while Clarke Schmidt could miss the entire year after last July’s Tommy John procedure. Weathers slots alongside Will Warren and Luis Gil as their projected third through fifth starters behind Max Fried and Cam Schlittler. Any of Weathers, Warren or Gil could be optioned to Triple-A if everyone’s healthy once Rodón and/or Cole return.

The trade should increase Miami’s urgency to add an affordable starter via free agency. Eury Pérez and Sandy Alcantara are the only two locks for Clayton McCullough’s season-opening rotation. Braxton Garrett (internal brace) and Max Meyer (hip surgery) missed most or all of the 2025 season. They’re expected to be ready for Opening Day but should be on innings limits. Journeyman Janson Junk was a decent fifth starter, while Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur have limited MLB experience.

There’s more upside coming through the pipeline. Highly-regarded prospects Thomas White and Robby Snelling have reached Triple-A. Snelling dominated over 11 starts there and has a strong chance to win a rotation spot out of Spring Training. Former second-rounder Dax Fulton is on the 40-man roster and has also reached Triple-A, though he’s coming off a less impressive season in the high minors.

It remains a high-ceiling group, especially once White and Snelling take the mound at loanDepot Park. They’re short a veteran at the back end whom they can rely upon for some innings. It’s likely they’ll dip into free agency for a starter on a one-year deal, as they did last winter with the Cal Quantrill signing. They should aim a little higher this time around since it’s not out of the question they compete for a playoff spot in 2026. Maybe a multi-year deal candidate like Zack Littell or Nick Martinez winds up dropping into their price range as Spring Training approaches. Jose Quintana, Martín Pérez and former Miami draftee Chris Paddack are all locks for one-year deals and would be more comparable to the Quantrill pickup.

Lewis is the biggest get of the four prospects. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported last week that Miami evaluators were particularly bullish on the 22-year-old outfielder. His name came up in conversations between the teams when New York was pursuing Cabrera. While they didn’t find an agreeable package in those conversations, the Marlins found another way to add Lewis to the system.

A right-handed hitter, Lewis was a 13th-round pick in 2024 out of Queens University of Charlotte. While he didn’t enter pro ball with a ton of fanfare, he impressed pro scouts during his first full season. Baseball America recently ranked him eighth among Yankees prospects, while he slotted 16th in the system at MLB Pipeline.

Evaluators praise his center field defense and big exit velocities that hint at the raw power upside in his 6’3″ frame. He’s coming off a .237/.321/.445 slash with 22 home runs and 26 stolen bases in a pitcher-friendly setting in the low minors. Lewis struck out at a higher than average 23.5% rate, which is concerning for a college draftee who has yet to advance beyond High-A. There’s a decent amount of risk with questions about his hit tool and distance from the majors, but he’s another toolsy outfield pickup for a club that added Caissie last week.

Jones was another late-round college pick in 2024. A left-handed hitting center fielder out of Kansas State, he combined for a .245/.359/.395 line between High-A and Double-A. Jones walked in almost 15% of his plate appearances and stole 51 bases in 60 attempts. He’s listed at 5’10” and doesn’t have Lewis’ physical upside, but scouts praise his approach and speed. Baseball America ranked him 13th in the Yankees system, while he landed 15th on Pipeline’s ranking. There’s a decent chance he ends up as a fourth outfielder.

Jasso, 23, is a right-handed hitting corner infielder who spent last season in Double-A. He had a solid year, batting .257/.326/.400 with 13 homers. Jasso was a 2023 undrafted free agent whose minor league performance landed him in the back third of New York’s top 30 prospects. He should begin the season at Triple-A Jacksonville and could find himself in the MLB mix by the end of the year. He’ll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft next winter.

Miami rounds out the return with Matheus, a 21-year-old shortstop/third baseman out of Venezuela. The switch-hitter put together a .275/.365/.376 line with a 12.3% walk rate and 18.5% strikeout percentage in A-ball last year. Matheus is on the smaller side at 5’10” and hasn’t hit for more than five home runs in a season. He’s a lottery ticket potential utility player who’ll also be eligible for the Rule 5 draft after the ’26 season.

Jack Curry of The Yes Network first reported the Yankees were acquiring Weathers for four prospects. Craig Mish of SportsGrid had the full return. Image courtesy of Jim Rassol, Imagn Images.

Mets Reportedly Offer Kyle Tucker Short-Term Deal With $50MM AAV; Jays Have Made Long-Term Offer

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5:15pm: The Jays have made Tucker a long-term offer, reports Jesse Rogers of ESPN, though no details on that offer have been reported.

1:35pm: The Mets have made Tucker an offer with a $50MM AAV, per reports from John Mincone as well as Robert Murray of FanSided.

11:37am: The top free agent of the offseason is still unsigned with about a month to go until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. Some recent reporting, including from Jim Duquette of MLB Network Radio, has suggested the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets are the top suitors for Kyle Tucker at this point. All three have recently met with Tucker, either in person or over Zoom, per Duquette. Will Sammon of The Athletic reports today that the Mets are in the range of offering him $120MM to $140MM on a three-year deal. Sammon says the Mets could go higher and that Tucker could make his decision as soon as this week.

At the start of the offseason, MLBTR predicted Tucker for a $400MM guarantee on an 11-year deal. That would be $36.36MM in terms of average annual value, paying him from his age-29 through age-39 seasons. That would be in line with other big deals for star-caliber position players.

In the past decade, eight position players have signed for nine years or longer: Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Manny Machado, Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts. Ohtani got a $70MM AAV but with significant deferrals, knocking the net present value closer to the $45MM range. Soto got $51MM and Judge $40MM. The others were in the $25-35MM range.

It’s unknown what the Blue Jays or Dodgers are willing to offer Tucker but he remains unsigned into mid-January, meaning he hasn’t yet received an offer compelling enough for him to have put pen to paper.

In recent years, it’s become a standard move for a free agent with an underwhelming market to pivot to a short-term pact with high AAVs and opt-outs. Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Pete Alonso have gone down this road in recent years. Everyone in that group apart from Alonso took a three-year deal. Bregman’s was technically for $40MM annually but with deferrals knocking the NPV to the $30MM range. Correa had a $35.1MM AAV, Bellinger $26.7MM and Chapman $18MM. Alonso’s two-year deal had a $27MM AAV.

The plan in that case is to bank a decent amount of money before taking another crack at free agency. The hope would be to then have more luck finding a long-term deal with a better platform season and no longer being tied to qualifying offer penalties. A player can only receive a qualifying offer once in his career. Tucker just rejected a QO from the Cubs and whoever signs him now will be subject to the associated penalties.

This doesn’t always work out but has in many cases. Chapman eventually signed a $151MM extension with the Giants just before returning to free agency. Correa was going to get a $325MM deal from the Giants. Concerns about his physical put the kibosh on that but he still got a $200MM guarantee from the Twins. This winter, Alonso got $155MM from the Orioles. Bregman just got $175MM from the Cubs, though with deferrals knocking the NPV to somewhere in the $150MM range.

There’s also appeal for the team. They have to pay a premium salary and usually forfeit a draft pick or two, and maybe some international bonus pool space as well, but they avoid a long-term commitment. Since players generally decline in productivity as they push through their 30s, it’s understandable for a team to look to avoid length.

Sammon doesn’t mention opt-outs in his piece on the Mets’ offer but that would presumably be a component. From Tucker’s perspective, he’s coming off a couple of seasons undercut by injuries but is still relatively young, going into his age-29 season. A three-year deal with no opt-outs would see him return to free agency ahead of his age-32 season, whereas opt-outs would allow him to try the market again quicker.

Whether he and his representatives have any appetite for that kind of path is unknown. It’s perhaps worth mentioning that the five aforementioned guys who took short-term deals were all Boras Corporation clients. He’s also gone down that road with pitchers such as Blake Snell, Carlos Rodón and Jordan Montgomery. Tucker is not a Boras guy, as he’s represented by Excel Sports Management.

Perhaps Tucker would consider a short-term pact but that also depends what the other offers are. It has been speculated that the Dodgers would also prefer a short-term deal. They could use an outfield upgrade but their roster is one of the older ones in the league and they have a batch of top outfield prospects. Those prospects don’t offer immediate help, as most of them have only recently reached the Double-A level or haven’t even hit that run at all. A short-term deal for Tucker could allow them to upgrade on the grass until those younger guys become more viable big leaguers.

It’s been speculated that the Jays would be more willing to go a long-term deal. They recently signed Kazuma Okamoto but it was reported a week ago that they are still aggressively pursuing Tucker even after landing Okamoto. Toronto has spent aggressively this winter after making it to the World Series in 2025. They gave a nine-figure deal to Dylan Cease, then eight-figure deals to Cody Ponce, Tyler Rogers and Okamoto. That has pushed their payroll to new heights but that could be a byproduct of their deep run last year.

They also have a lot of money coming off the books after 2026, as George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Yimi García, Daulton Varsho and Eric Lauer are impending free agents. Myles Straw would also depart if his club option is turned down and José Berríos can opt out of his deal. That could prompt the Jays to be doubly aggressive now, while they still have all of that talent on the roster.

Next winter doesn’t really have a Tucker-level talent and is also likely to be disrupted by the lockout. If Tucker were to sign a short-term deal, he could again be the top free agent a year from now but would also throw himself into the lockout winter. A long-term pact would keep him away from whatever disruptions are coming a year from now.

For the Mets, they seemingly prefer to avoid long-term pacts at the moment. Since David Stearns has become president of baseball operations, they made an exception for the 26-year-old Soto but have otherwise not signed any deal longer than three years.

They certainly need help in the outfield though. They traded Brandon Nimmo to the Rangers for Marcus Semien. They currently have Soto in one corner and Tyrone Taylor in center. Prospect Carson Benge could seize an Opening Day job but he can play center. If Tucker were brought in to take one corner with Soto in the other, Benge and Taylor could have a spring battle for the center field gig. If Taylor were to win, Benge could get more Triple-A reps. If Benge were to win, Taylor could become a fourth outfielder.

Financially, there’s no real limit to what they could do. Owner Steve Cohen has shown himself willing to run the Mets up to having the top payroll in the league. They’ve had a fairly modest offseason, defined more by subtraction than addition. They sent out Nimmo and Jeff McNeil while also letting Alonso and Edwin Díaz sign elsewhere.

RosterResource projects them for a payroll of $295MM and a competitive balance tax number of $296MM. Those are big figures but the Mets finished 2025 at $340MM and $337MM in those categories, respectively. Paying Tucker something between $40MM and $47MM annually would get them right back around to last year’s range.

It would also presumably do a lot to quell the fan base, who are currently not thrilled by the familiar faces who have departed in the past few months. It would also prevent them from adding another big salary to the long-term books, as they are already set to pay Soto and Francisco Lindor huge annual sums through 2039 and 2031 respectively.

Photo courtesy of David Banks, Imagn Images

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