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Dodgers To Sign Shohei Ohtani

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The Dodgers have agreed to a deal with Shohei Ohtani, as the two-way superstar revealed himself on his Instagram page.  Ohtani will receive an astounding $700MM over the next 10 years, as revealed by his CAA agent Nez Balelo.  It is a straight ten-year pact, as ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez reports that that contract doesn’t contain any opt-outs.

According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan (X link), “most of” Ohtani’s salary will be deferred, as suggested by Ohtani himself.  The intent is so that the Dodgers can continue to spend and add talent while somewhat lowering the luxury tax hit.  Regardless of how the $700MM is eventually parceled out over the coming years or decades, Ohtani will be bringing in the single largest contract ever given to a professional athlete, topping the $674MM deal that soccer legend Lionel Messi signed with FC Barcelona for the 2017-21 La Liga seasons.

“First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to everyone involved with the Angels organization and the fans who have supported me over the past six years, as well as to everyone involved with each team that was part of this negotiation process,” Ohtani said in his Instagram message.  “Especially to the Angels fans who supported me through all the ups and downs, your guys’ support and cheer meant the world to me. The six years I spent with the Angels will remain etched in my heart forever.  And to all Dodgers fans, I pledge to always do what’s best for the team and always continue to give it my all to be the best version of myself.  Until the last day of my playing career, I want to continue to strive forward not only for the Dodgers but for the baseball world.”

Balelo’s statement: “Shohei is thrilled to be a part of the Dodgers organization.  He is excited to begin this partnership, and he structured his contract to reflect a true commitment from both sides to long-term success. Shohei and I want to thank all the organizations that reached out to us for their interest and respect, especially the wonderful people we got to know even better as this process unfolded.  We know fans, media and the entire industry had a high degree of interest in this process, and we want to express our appreciation for their passion and their consideration as it played out.”

Aaron Judge’s ten-year, $360MM deal with the Yankees last winter was the largest free agent deal in baseball history, while Mookie Betts landing $365MM in new money in his 2020 extension with the Dodgers was technically the largest deal overall.  Mike Trout’s ten-year, $360MM extension with the Angels was considered by the team as a 12-year, $426.5MM pact due to its inclusion of previously owed money in Trout’s previous deal, so that has been considered by some to hold the “biggest contract ever” title, yet needless to say, Ohtani’s contact now ends all debate.

While it was widely expected that Ohtani would set a new standard for baseball contracts this winter, nearly doubling the Betts/Judge totals is an incredible new benchmark.  It speaks to both Ohtani’s generational talent as a two-way superstar, the amount of revenue Ohtani can personally generate in terms of additional endorsements and media interest from Japan, the number of big-money offers made by the other known suitors in the race, and simply the Dodgers’ determination to land a player who has been on their radar for years.

If the National League had had the designated hitter in 2018, it is quite possible Ohtani would’ve signed with the Dodgers when he initially came to MLB from Nippon Professional Baseball during the 2017-18 offseason.  The Dodgers (along with the Cubs, Rangers, Padres, Mariners, and Giants) were the finalists behind the Angels, whose willingness to give Ohtani free reign as both a pitcher and a hitter allowed the Anaheim club to seal the deal, and set the stage for one of the most remarkable stretches baseball has ever seen.

The impact was immediately, as Ohtani hit and pitched at such as high level in 2018 that he was an easy choice as AL Rookie Of The Year.  He had to undergo a Tommy John surgery that kept him off the mound in 2019, though he was still able to hit as a DH and posted some impressive numbers.  However, an injury-marred 2020 campaign saw Ohtani deliver poor numbers at the plate and only 1 2/3 total innings on the mound, creating doubt as to whether he could truly live up to the hype.

The doubts were erased from 2021-23.  Ohtani posted a 2.84 ERA, 31.4% strikeout rate, and 8.3% walk rate over 428 1/3 innings on the mound, while also hitting .277/.379/.585 with 124 home runs over 1904 plate appearances.  Not even Babe Ruth amassed such levels of performance while both hitting and pitching at the same time, earning Ohtani the unofficial nickname of “the Unicorn.”  Ohtani won AL MVP honors in both 2021 and 2023, and finished second to Judge in 2022 in the aftermath of Judge’s AL-record 62 home runs.

More to come…

Roki Sasaki Asks To Be Posted For MLB Teams, Chiba Lotte Marines Likely To Deny Request

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Japanese pitching sensation Roki Sasaki has asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to make him available to MLB teams via the posting system this winter, according to Sponichi Annex (Japanese language link from Yahoo Japan).  Nippon Professional Baseball teams have until December 15 to post players for possible moves to Major League Baseball in advance of the 2024 season, and this brief timeline alone makes it highly unlikely that the Marines will grant Sasaki’s request.

In the broader picture, it is quite rare for Japanese players to ask to be posted so early in their careers, as the 22-year-old Sasaki has only played three seasons in NPB.  As per MLB’s posting rules, players must be at least 25 years and have at least six pro seasons under their belt in order to receive anything more than a minor league contract.  Big league clubs could also only pay such players money from their international bonus pools, and with this year’s international signing window yet to open on January 15, teams have long since committed the bulk of their pool money to prospects.  Shohei Ohtani faced these restrictions when he came to the majors at age 23, and thus received only a minors deal from the Angels and a $2.3MM signing bonus.

Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times profiled Sasaki last month, noting that Sasaki’s contract with the Marines “is thought to” have an escape clause that would allow the righty to leave for the majors at any time.  Ohtani enacted such a clause in 2017, though Ohtani had played five seasons with the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.

The Sponichi article didn’t give any mention about such a contractual opt-out, though the unusual timing of Sasaki’s request perhaps does indicate that he has some leverage to take this rather immediate plunge into the posting system.  Castillo/Harris wrote that the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants have all “intensely scouted” Sasaki in Japan, and at one point, the Dodgers thought that Sasaki would be available as early as this offseason.

Sasaki wouldn’t achieve full free agency until he has nine seasons of service time, and in general, NPB teams don’t post players early until they’re a year or two away from that nine-season threshold.  For instance, Yoshinobu Yamamoto played seven seasons with the Orix Buffaloes before the Buffaloes agreed to post the star righty this winter, and the 25-year-old Yamamoto now looks poised to command a contract well north of $200MM.

Yamamoto’s combination of youth and skill has all but guaranteed a huge contract, yet even his number could pale in comparison to what Sasaki might receive.  Though he would seemingly be limited to a minor league deal at first and would have to wait at least a few seasons into an MLB career to sign an extension without drawing attention from the league office, that might be a risk Sasaki is willing to take given the potential huge payoff down the road.  In the interim, he won’t be lacking in compensation, since a jump to the majors would surely boost his endorsement appeal.

Over 283 2/3 career innings with the Marines, Sasaki has a 2.00 ERA, 34.4% strikeout rate, and 5.12% walk rate, and these video-game numbers are only part of Sasaki’s burgeoning legend.  His fastball routinely sits in the upper-90s and has topped out at 102.5mph, and his forkball is arguably an even deadlier pitch.  Sasaki’s pitched well for Japan’s gold medal-winning team at the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and he has two NPB All-Star appearances on his resume.  Most famously, Sasaki came within an inning of back-to-back perfect games — he tossed a perfecto against the Buffaloes in April 2022 that saw him record 13 straight strikeouts amidst an NPB-record 19 K’s in his masterpiece of a start.  Incredibly, Sasaki followed that up with eight perfect innings in his next outing before being pulled before the start of the ninth due to pitch count reasons (102 pitches).

The Marines’ desire to preserve Sasaki’s arm and overall health has been a main storyline of his career.  He was the first overall pick of the 2019 NPB draft, yet he didn’t make his debut with Chiba until May 2021, as the team wanted to ease his development into pro ball.  Sasaki missed about six weeks this season due to an oblique strain, limiting him to 91 innings for the 2023 campaign.  As MLB’s Dai Takegami Podziewski noted in his last installment of the NPB Players To Watch feature, durability is basically the last question Sasaki has to really answer about his long-term potential, and the righty’s 6’4″, 203-pound frame would suggest that he is perhaps built to hold up under the larger workloads faced by Major League pitchers.

While it remains to be seen if Sasaki will actually be able to enter the 2023-24 free agent market, it would obviously be a game changer in a winter that already has a lot of high-end starters still on the board.  If nothing else, Sasaki’s request might well be setting a stage for a posting next winter, when he could join another loaded pitching class that might include Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, and possibly even Gerrit Cole if the Yankees don’t enact a contract clause preventing Cole from opting out.

Reports: Ohtani Still Undecided On Next Club

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Free agent Shohei Ohtani has not made a decision on his next club, per reports from Ben Nicholson-Smith and Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Alden Gonzalez of ESPN and others. Earlier today, a report from J.P. Hoornstra of Dodgers Nation relayed that the two-way superstar would be signing with the Blue Jays, though nothing has been made official as of yet. Ohtani was reported to be en route to Toronto by Jon Morosi of MLB.com, though Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that Ohtani is at home in Southern California. Morosi has since retracted the report about Ohtani traveling to Toronto.

Ohtani’s free agency has been shrouded in secrecy by design, with the player and his reps preferring to keep the proceedings as private as possible. Recent reports have pegged the Jays, Dodgers, Giants, Angels and Cubs the finalists, though most of those clubs were hesitant to even admit they were involved, given Ohtani’s wishes. Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins spoke with reporters via Zoom during the Winter Meetings and would not divulge where he was. Later reporting from Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic indicated that it was “believed” that Ohtani met with the Jays at their facilities in Dunedin, Florida at that time. There were also “rumblings” that Ohtani met with the Giants at Oracle Park, per Susan Slusser of The San Francisco Chronicle.

Dodgers manager Dave Roberts broke through this cone of silence earlier this week, frankly admitting that his club had recently met with Ohtani and identified him as a “top priority.” Many wondered if this plain-spoken approach would harm the Dodgers’ chances of signing Ohtani, given his clear desire for privacy. But Hoornstra reports it’s not believed that had any role in Ohtani’s choice, even a choice has even been made.

All of this has made it very difficult to secure concrete information about Ohtani’s market and what sort of discussions he was having with his suitors, though Morosi reported this morning that a decision was “imminent” and could be announced as soon as today.

Red Sox Acquire Tyler O’Neill

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The Red Sox brought in outfield help on Friday night, announcing the acquisition of outfielder Tyler O’Neill from the Cardinals. Right-handers Nick Robertson and Victor Santos are going back to St. Louis.

O’Neill, 29 in June, has had a mercurial career but showed his tremendous ceiling as recently as 2021. He played 138 games that season, hitting 34 home runs. He struck out at a high 31.3% clip but hit .286/.352/.560 overall for a wRC+ of 143. He also received strong grades for his outfield defense and stole 15 bases. That all-around production led to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement, per FanGraphs, whereas Baseball Reference had him at 6.1 WAR.

But the results since then have been less impressive, with injuries seeming to drag him down. In the past two seasons, O’Neill has hit the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, a left hamstring strain, a lower back strain and a right foot sprain. He’s been able to get into just 168 games over those two campaigns, hitting 23 home runs and producing a batting line of .229/.310/.397. That amounts to a wRC+ of 98, indicating he’s been just a bit below league average.

It appeared that he had fallen out of favor in St. Louis over that time. In early 2023, he and manager Oli Marmol got in a bit of a spat, where the skipper publicly admonished O’Neill for a perceived lack of hustle. Though the outfielder pushed back on the idea that he wasn’t giving full effort and also seemed displeased with Marmol making the disagreement public.

As the Cardinals fell out of contention during the most recent season, it seemed as though O’Neill could have been traded at the deadline a few months ago, since he’s slated for free agency after 2024. But no deal materialized and he stuck with the club into the current offseason. In recent weeks, trade rumors surfaced and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak did little to quell them. “In the outfield, right now, if we were to play tomorrow it’d likely be [Lars Nootbaar], Tommy Edman and [Jordan Walker],” said Mozeliak during the Winter Meetings earlier this week. “Our fourth outfielder would be Dylan Carlson. … Tyler O’Neill is somebody that we are listening to on trades.”

But for the Red Sox, O’Neill makes plenty of sense. After they traded Alex Verdugo earlier this week, their outfield projects to have lefties Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu. The club also has righties Ceddanne Rafaela and Rob Refsnyder, but the former has just 28 games of experience while the latter is a platoon specialist. Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow recently spoke about how the club would like to add a right-handed hitter capable of playing center field, but that it wouldn’t be a need.

O’Neill does indeed hit from the right side and has played some center field, having logged 303 2/3 innings there over 40 games in his career. The defensive reviews are mixed but it’s hard to glean much in such a small sample.

He will likely not be Plan A in center anyhow. Per a report from Jen McCaffrey and Chad Jennings of The Athletic this week, the club considers Rafaela a viable center field option. Even if he were to struggle in his first extended stretch of play in the big leagues, Duran has spent plenty of time up the middle and Abreu has seen action there as well. But all told, he balances the mix and will be a low-cost upside play for the Sox.

As mentioned, O’Neill is slated for free agency after 2024. Per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, he’s projected for a salary of just $5.5MM next year before reaching the open market. If he gets back to his 2021 upside, he would be a bargain and could help the club return to contention or perhaps turn into a midseason trade chip if the Sox are out of the race. If he continues to struggle, he can yield playing time to Duran, Rafaela or Abreu, depending on who is performing well.

The Cardinals came into this offseason with a notable position player surplus. Mozeliak outlined the outfield situation, which also includes players like Alec Burleson and Richie Palacios. But they also have Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt on the infield corners. Up the middle, they have Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman and Brendan Donovan as potential options.

It was thought that they would use this surplus to add their rotation, where they were looking to add three arms. But they rather quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson to bolster their starting group. That led to recent speculation that an eventual position player trade would return bullpen help or prospects.

Robertson, 25, was drafted by the Dodgers and added to that club’s 40-man roster earlier this year, but he was flipped to Boston as part of the Enrique Hernández trade from a few months ago. He has 22 1/3 innings of MLB experience between the two clubs with an earned run average of 6.04, though with more encouraging peripherals. He struck out 24.5% of batters faced while walking 8.5% and getting grounders at a 47.1% clip. His .397 batting average on balls in play and 57.5% strand rate were both on the unlucky side of average, leading to a 3.88 FIP and 3.76 SIERA.

He was even better in the minors, having tossed 42 2/3 Triple-A innings between the two clubs with a 3.16 ERA, 33.1% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. He still has a couple of options, so the Cards don’t need to commit an active roster spot to him right away, but he’s already had some MLB experience and could potentially be part of their club in the coming season.

Santos, 23, has mostly been a starter in the minors but hasn’t ever really been a top prospect, though he has received plaudits for his command. He tossed 145 innings in 2022, split between Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.97 ERA. His 20.6% strikeout rate was a bit below average but his 5.6% walk rate was quite strong. He didn’t pitch in 2023 because of injury. He’ll provide the Cards with a bit of non-roster depth for their starting staff.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported O’Neill was being traded to Boston. Sean McAdam of MassLive reported that St. Louis would receive two minor leaguers. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that Robertson and Santos were going to the Cardinals.

Braves Acquire Max Stassi, David Fletcher

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The Braves and Angels have lined up a swap of change-of-scenery candidates. Atlanta announced the acquisition of infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi for minor league first baseman Evan White and reliever Tyler Thomas. The Braves’ 40-man roster count is up to 36; the Halos will be at 39 once they finalize one-year free agent deals for Luis García and Adam Cimber.

It’s an odd fit for the Braves, who aren’t in need of catching help. Atlanta has Sean Murphy as their starter and re-signed Travis d’Arnaud to an $8MM deal to work as the backup. Stassi gives them a third experienced, fairly highly-priced catcher. Since it’s unlikely they’d want to carry all three — none of whom can be sent to the minor leagues — Mark Bowman of MLB.com tweets that they plan to flip Stassi elsewhere.

Atlanta has already moved a trio of players whom they’d acquired in previous offseason trades. Right-hander Jackson Kowar, added from the Royals for Kyle Wright, went to the Mariners in the deal that brought in Jarred Kelenic. As part of the Kelenic trade, the Braves agreed to take on salary on the underwater contracts for left-hander Marco Gonzales and White. Gonzales was dealt to the Pirates for a minimal return on Tuesday, while White is now himself shipped away in this swap with the Angels.

Now they’ll try to move Stassi, who is under contract for $7MM next season. He’s also guaranteed a $500K buyout on a $7.5MM team option for the 2025 campaign. The Halos had signed him to an extension on the heels of a combined .250/.333/.452 showing between 2020-21. That contract didn’t work as the organization envisioned. Stassi slumped to a .180/.267/.303 line over a personal-high 375 plate appearances in 2022.

The 32-year-old didn’t appear at all in 2023. Stassi began the season on the injured list with a left hip strain. While he recovered from the hip issue midseason, he remained away from the team to attend to a family issue. After the season, Stassi and his wife Gabrielle revealed their son had been born three months prematurely in mid-April and had spent the past few months in NICU. In November, Angels GM Perry Minasian told reporters that Stassi was planning to play in 2024 (link via Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register).

In the season’s final month, the Angels had placed Stassi on the restricted list. That ensured he wouldn’t be paid for the last few weeks as part of the organization’s ultimately successful effort to limbo below the luxury tax line. There’s no public indication that affected the franchise’s relationship with Stassi, but he also seemed an arguably superfluous part of the roster. Logan O’Hoppe has emerged as the top option behind the plate with Matt Thaiss backing him up.

Fletcher likewise signed an extension that hasn’t panned out. The glove-first infielder inked a $26MM guarantee in April 2021. At the time, the Angels envisioned him as a long-term starter at second base thanks to a strong showing in the shortened 2020 season. That looks like an anomaly, as Fletcher’s offense has evaporated in the three years since then. Going back to the start of the ’21 campaign, he’s a .259/.296/.327 hitter.

The Angels twice ran Fletcher through waivers this year. He played in only 33 MLB games while getting into 85 contests at Triple-A Salt Lake. Fletcher made a ton of contact with minimal power impact at the top minor league level, hitting .330/.382/.428 with a microscopic 6.3% strikeout rate across 380 plate appearances.

Fletcher will make $6MM next season, is guaranteed $6.5MM in 2025 and will take home at least a $1.5MM buyout on a ’26 club option. That’s well above what he’d have received were he a free agent this offseason. He’s a plus defender at each of second base, shortstop and third base. For the Braves, he’ll serve as utility infield depth behind Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia and Austin Riley. It’s a role that had been played by Nicky Lopez in the second half of last season, but Atlanta packaged him in the Aaron Bummer trade with the White Sox.

It’s strictly a financial move for the Angels, who also clear two spots on their 40-man roster. White had been a highly-regarded prospect during his time with the Mariners. Seattle signed him to an extension before his MLB debut. That didn’t work, as the righty-hitting first baseman turned in a .165/.235/.308 line in 84 big league games between 2020-21. White hasn’t played in the majors in two years and has barely played in Triple-A because of various injuries, including multiple surgeries on his left hip.

Atlanta passed White through waivers just yesterday. The Angels will take on the remainder of his contract: $7MM next season, $8MM in 2025 and a $2MM buyout on a ’26 club option. He’ll likely start next season in Salt Lake.

Thomas is a left-handed pitcher who turns 28 in a few weeks. The Braves had just selected him in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft out of the Mets organization. The Fresno State product has appeared in parts of six minor league seasons. He has a 4.30 ERA over 130 2/3 career innings at Double-A with scant experience at the Triple-A level.

The Braves agree to take on an extra $6MM next season, while the Halos are assuming an additional $1.5MM between 2025-26. Atlanta is also assuming $6MM in luxury tax obligations for the upcoming season. A traded player’s luxury tax number is recalculated as the average annual value of what remains on their contract at the time of the trade (including option buyouts). Stassi is guaranteed $7.5MM for one season, while the remaining $14MM over two years on Fletcher’s deal is a $7MM average value. White is due $17MM over two seasons, an $8.5MM annual hit. There’s a $6MM gap between the $14.5MM which Atlanta is assuming versus the $8.5MM they’re shipping out.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported the terms of the trade.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Diamondbacks Sign Eduardo Rodriguez To Four-Year Deal

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After falling to the Rangers in the World Series, the upstart Diamondbacks have acted quickly and decisively to bolster their rotation. Arizona announced the signing of left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year contract with a conditional option for 2028. It’s reportedly a four-year, $80MM guarantee for the Mato Sports Management client.

The deal is slightly backloaded, with Rodriguez making $14MM in the first year, followed by salaries of $20MM, $21MM and $19MM. He’s guaranteed a $6MM buyout on a mutual/vesting option for 2028. The option would vest at a $17MM salary if Rodriguez pitches 150 innings in 2027 or 300 innings between 2026-27. It would vest at $18MM if the southpaw gets to 175 innings in ’27 or 250 frames in ’26-’27. There are also bonuses and a limited no-trade clause.

For the reigning NL champions, Rodriguez provides a third playoff-caliber arm to pair with 2023 NL Cy Young award finalist Zac Gallen and veteran right-hander Merrill Kelly. Despite excellent performances from the club’s top two arms, who combined for a 3.39 ERA across 64 starts, the club’s overall rotation ranked just 21st in the majors last season with a 4.67 ERA. That’s thanks to a dearth of quality options behind Gallen and Kelly. Arizona relied on the likes of Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson, and Zach Davies in the rotation for much of the year, each of whom posted ERAs north of 5.00 — though Pfaadt had a solid finish and was excellent during the postseason.

Adding Rodriguez to the mix should help the club’s run prevention efforts considerably. The 30-year-old southpaw enjoyed a career year in 2023 as a member of the Tigers, finishing the season with a 3.30 ERA and 3.66 FIP across 152 2/3 innings of work while striking out 23% of batters faced against a walk rate of just 7.7%. Those strong overall numbers on the season well may have been even stronger had Rodriguez managed to stay healthy all season, as the lefty cruised to a 2.13 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate across his first eleven starts of the season.

Unfortunately, Rodriguez subsequently suffered a ruptured pulley tendon at the end of May that wound up sidelining him for the entire month of June. Upon returning in early July, Rodriguez struggled to match his excellent first half performance. The southpaw delivered decent results, with a 4.24 ERA and 4.08 FIP over his final 85 frames, though his strikeout rate dipped to just 21.2% while his walk rate climbed to 8.9%. Fortunately, Rodriguez bounced back down the stretch to post a solid 3.60 ERA in September. Assuming the left-hander is fully healthy entering the 2024 campaign, he would be a strong addition to most any rotation in the majors.

Rodriguez’s strong platform campaign landed him the #11 spot on MLBTR’s annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, where we projected him for a four-year, $82MM deal. He’ll land right in that range, though Rodriguez managed to secure additional incentives that could raise the value of the contract further. While Rodriguez was the seventh-highest rated pitcher on our list, he actually edged out veteran right-hander and fifth-highest rated pitcher Sonny Gray’s total guarantee with the Cardinals by $5MM. That being said, Gray’s contract comes with a substantially higher AAV.

The Diamondbacks have shown a willingness to operate at this level of the rotation market in the past. Setting aside the six-year, $206.5MM megadeal the club signed Zack Greinke to prior to the 2016 season, the largest free agent contract the Diamondbacks have offered to a pitcher was a five-year, $85MM contract for left-hander Madison Bumgarner. That contract proved to be a disaster for Arizona, as Bumgarner posted a 5.23 ERA and 5.17 FIP across 69 starts for the Diamondbacks over the life of the contract before being released early in the 2023 campaign despite remaining on the books for the 2024 season.

The deal pushes Arizona’s payroll into uncharted territory, with RosterResource projecting the club’s 2024 payroll at $114MM prior to the addition of Rodriguez. Factoring in the club’s new addition, they Diamondbacks are on the hook for $134MM in salary commitments for the 2024 campaign, just barely edging out the club’s all-time high payroll of $131MM back in 2018 (per Cot’s Baseball Contracts). The Diamondbacks have made no public indications about their financial limits this offseason, so it’s unclear how much more room, if any, the club has to maneuver for future additions. If the club has more payroll space to work with, an additional rotation arm to shore up the back of the club’s rotation could make sense, as well as a right-handed hitter to slot in at DH. To that end, the club has recently been connected to Lucas Giolito, Seth Lugo, Justin Turner, and J.D. Martinez, though it’s unclear if the club’s interest in the aforementioned starters remains following the signing of Rodriguez.

Jon Morosi of MLB.com first reported that the D-backs were a finalist to sign Rodriguez. Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the two sides had agreed to a four-year deal worth around $20MM annually. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal broke the exact guarantee and value of the vesting option. Robert Murray of FanSided was first with the specific salary structure and vesting provisions.

David Rubenstein Reportedly In Talks To Acquire Baltimore Orioles

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Carlyle Group founder David Rubenstein is in talks to acquire the Baltimore Orioles, according to a report from Gillian Tan of Bloomberg. The O’s are currently owned by the Angelos family.

It’s unclear at this point what stage the talks are at or if any kind of deal is close at this time. It also doesn’t seem like Rubenstein is the only person pursuing the club, as the report states that he is “among suitors pursuing a transaction.” Whether the Angelos family has pursued this or have merely been approached by prospective buyers isn’t clear, but there has been plenty of uncertainty in recent years about the future of the franchise.

Peter Angelos, now 94, was the principal investor of a group that purchased the franchise in 1993. After he collapsed in 2017 due to the failure of his aortic valve, larger roles were taken up by his wife Georgia and sons John and Lou. In June of 2022, reports emerged of infighting between the family about control of the club, with MLB approving John as the club’s “control person” in 2020. Multiple lawsuits were filed and the reporting of the legal battle revealed that Georgia had hired Goldman Sachs to look into a possible sale of the club. In February of this year, it was reported that the family members had reached an agreement to drop their lawsuits against each other. “I would say that there’s not a plan to change the principal ownership or the managing partnership and there would be no reason to,” John said on the matter in February.

Amid all of the drama over the ownership situation, there has also been an ongoing situation regarding Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The club’s lease on the facility runs through 2023. They had an opportunity to extend that for five years but chose in February not to do so. The hope was that they could work out a longer deal that would allow them to take advantage of a new Maryland law and borrow $600MM for stadium upgrades. Both John and Maryland Governor Wes Moore have made public statements expressing optimism about getting a new deal done.

In August it was reported that John was trying to leverage the stadium negotiations into acquiring public land. He reportedly envisioned developing a mixed-use area with commercial and retail spaces, emulating to The Battery and Truist Park where the Braves play in Georgia.

In September, John and Gov. Moore announced a new 30-year lease between the club and the state, though this was actually misleading. Reporting from the next day revealed that they had merely signed a memorandum of understanding, which was legally non-binding. The lease is still set to expire on December 31 and recent reporting has suggested the two sides may have to sign a short-term extension of a year or perhaps even go month-to-month, per Hayes Gardner of The Baltimore Sun, while working out a longer deal.

In addition to all of that, the club has made almost no long-term investments in any players. The O’s haven’t signed a free agent to a multi-year deal since March of 2018, with was Alex Cobb’s four-year deal. Since then, the only contracts longer than one year the club has given out have been two-year extensions to John Means and Félix Bautista, both players that were already under club control and rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. For much of that time, the club was in rebuilding mode. But even as they have returned to contention in the last two years, including winning the AL East with 101 wins in 2023, they have yet to make any kind of commitment to anything down the road.

Rubenstein, 74, is the co-founder and co-chairman of the Carlyle Group, a private equity company. He was born in Baltimore and Bloomberg estimates his net worth as $4.6 billion, though Forbes comes in below that at $3.6 billion. Forbes also currently values the Orioles franchise at $1.713 billion, about 10 times more than the $173MM price point when it was purchased in 1993.

To this point, it’s unclear if Rubenstein actually has a chance of acquiring the club or if he would approach any of the aforementioned issues differently. But if he were able to seal the deal and change the way the club operates, that would obviously be a franchise-altering development. It could also have ripple effects outside the O’s since they have an ongoing dispute with the Nationals over MASN and rights fees dating back to the Nats moving from Montreal to Washington in 2005. The Lerner family has been trying to sell the Nats in recent years but that MASN dispute has reportedly been a significant obstacle in doing so.

Astros Sign Victor Caratini To Two-Year Deal

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The Astros announced the signing of free agent catcher Víctor Caratini to a two-year contract. It’s a reported $12MM guarantee for the ACES client.

Houston general manager Dana Brown has made clear the team was looking for a #2 catcher. The Astros are turning the starting job over to 25-year-old Yainer Diaz, who posted an impressive .282/.308/.538 line as a rookie. Diaz still worked in something of a timeshare with veteran Martín Maldonado in 2023 — the young player also took a fair number of reps at designated hitter — but the Astros declared Diaz their top catcher from the outset of the offseason.

Backing up a very talented young catcher is familiar territory for Caratini, who played that role with the Brewers in 2023. Working behind William Contreras, Caratini played in 62 games and tallied 226 plate appearances. The switch-hitter had spent the last two seasons with Milwaukee overall. The Brewers had acquired him from the Padres shortly before the 2022 campaign. Caratini slumped to a .199/.300/.342 line during his first year but rebounded with a solid .259/.327/.383 showing a season ago.

A first-time free agent, the Puerto Rico native turned 30 in August. As one of the youngest catchers in the class, it’s not a surprise that he secured a multi-year pact. While he doesn’t bring much power to the table, Caratini has solid bat-to-ball skills. He struck out in fewer than 20% of his plate appearances last season while making contact on over 80% of his swings (a few points above the 76.4% league average).

On the other side of the ball, Caratini’s best trait is his pitch framing. Statcast has credited him as better than average at securing strikes throughout his career. He has rated reasonably well at blocking pitches in the dirt as well, although his arm strength is fringy. Of the 54 catchers with 20+ throws to second base this year, only Logan O’Hoppe and Yasmani Grandal had longer pop times on average.

Caratini nevertheless brings some positives on both sides of the ball. He’s a better offensive player than Maldonado, who now is almost certainly headed elsewhere after spending the last four and a half seasons in Houston.

If the salaries are distributed evenly, the contract brings the Astros’ payroll projection to roughly $222MM (via Roster Resource). More notably, the $6MM average annual value puts Houston’s estimated luxury tax tab right at the $237MM base threshold. The Astros have tended to hover around the tax line, aligning with Brown’s comments throughout the offseason that the club is working with a fairly limited amount of financial flexibility. Now that backup catcher has been solidified, they figure to turn their attention to the middle relief group.

Chandler Rome and Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Astros were in agreement with Caratini. Robert Murray of FanSided reported the two-year term, while Mark Feinsand and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com were first with the $12MM guarantee.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Sign Craig Kimbrel

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December 7: Kimbrel can increase the value of the buyout based on game and games finished in 2024, per Jon Heyman of The New York Post. It will be an extra $100K for pitching in 35, 40, 45, 50 and 55 games, as well as another $100K for finishing the same amounts. If Kimbrel were to max out all of those, the buyout would jump to $2MM.

December 6: The Orioles announced the signing of closer Craig Kimbrel to a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season. It’s a reported $13M guarantee for the SportsMeter client. Kimbrel will make $12MM in 2024 with a $1MM buyout on a $13MM option for ’25.

Baltimore has been looking to fortify the back of their bullpen this winter, with Félix Bautista set to miss the 2024 campaign recovering from Tommy John surgery. In that search, they have been connected in rumors to just about every notable reliever, including Josh Hader, Robert Stephenson and Jordan Hicks, though those guys are set for multi-year deals.

Details of this deal between the O’s and Kimbrel aren’t known but it’s possible it’s a one-year deal, since he settled for a one-year pact last offseason and is now going into his age-36 campaign. In that case, Kimbrel could act as a bridge, covering the closing role in Baltimore for one season and then relinquishing it to Bautista for 2025.

Kimbrel has a lengthy track record of having been one of the most dominant relievers in the game, having racked up 417 saves since debuting with Atlanta back in 2010. Recent years have been a bit more rocky but he’s coming off a generally solid season.

Over 2019 and 2020 with the Cubs, Kimbrel had an earned run average of 6.00 in 36 innings, a noticeable slide since his previous nine seasons only once resulted in an ERA over 2.74. He got back on track in 2021 with an ERA of 2.26 between the Cubs and White Sox, though he was far better before being traded than after. His ERA was a ridiculous 0.49 before the deal but 5.09 after. He was traded to the Dodgers for the 2022 season and posted a respectable 3.75 ERA, but he was shaky enough that year to get removed from the closer’s role in September and then left off that club’s playoff roster.

Kimbrel signed with the Phillies for 2023, a one-year deal with a $10MM guarantee. He tossed 69 innings for the Phils over 71 appearances this year, finishing with a 3.26 ERA, 33.8% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He earned 23 saves and seven holds in the process. He didn’t fare so well in the postseason, allowing four earned runs in six innings, but that’s a tiny sample of work relative to the season overall.

That won’t quite live up to Bautista’s recent performance, but there are few pitchers in the world who could. His first two seasons in the big leagues resulted in a 1.85 ERA and 40.4% strikeout rate. Only Edwin Díaz, who missed 2023 due to knee surgery, had a higher strikeout percentage in that time. But Kimbrel will nonetheless strengthen the bullpen relative to where it was a few days ago, joining other high-leverage relievers such as Yennier Cano and Danny Coulombe.

Assuming Kimbrel is in the closer’s role, he will have a chance to continue climbing the all-time saves leaderboard. Kenley Jansen currently sits seventh on that list with 420 while Kimbrel is eighth with 417. Both of those closers will have a chance to jump three more spots in 2024. Billy Wagner is currently sixth with 422, John Franco is fifth with 424 and Francisco Rodríguez is fourth with 437. That means each of Jansen and Kimbrel could be in the top five by the end of next year.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post reported that the O’s and Kimbrel were in serious discussions. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal first reported the sides were nearing and then in agreement on a deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported the financial terms.

Yankees Acquire Juan Soto In Seven-Player Trade

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For the second time before his 26th birthday, Juan Soto is on the move. The Yankees and Padres announced a trade sending Soto and fellow outfielder Trent Grisham from San Diego to the Bronx. The Friars receive five players — right-hander Michael King, top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe, right-handers Jhony Brito and Randy Vásquez, and catcher Kyle Higashioka — in return.

Soto’s time in San Diego concludes after a season and a half. The Padres acquired the star slugger from the Nationals during the summer of 2022 in one of the biggest deadline blockbusters in history. He’d go on to appear in 214 games with the Friars, hitting .265/.405/.488. It wasn’t immediately the smoothest tenure, as Soto was hitting below his established lofty standards down the stretch in ’22 and early this past season. By May, he turned a corner and was back to performing at an elite level.

The three-time All-Star ultimately turned in a .275/.410/.519 line with 35 home runs while playing in all 162 games. He narrowly established a career mark in longballs despite the generally pitcher-friendly nature of Petco Park. Soto’s generational plate discipline remained on full display. Among hitters with 400+ plate appearances, only new teammate Aaron Judge walked more frequently. Soto trailed just the respective league MVPs, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Shohei Ohtani, in on-base percentage. He was one of four hitters to walk more often than he struck out.

It’s what we’ve come to expect from Soto, who now owns a .284/.421/.524 slash over five and a half MLB seasons. He’s on a Hall of Fame trajectory and will immediately step into the middle of the New York batting order. He and Judge now comprise the game’s most fearsome corner outfield tandem. Along with Grisham and Alex Verdugo — acquired last night from the Red Sox — they’re part of an almost completely overhauled outfield in the Bronx.

The trade is a firm win-now strike for the Yankees, the kind of headline-grabbing splash that’s reminiscent of the Bronx Bombers of old. It’s a bold push on the part of ownership and the front office after a fourth-place finish in the AL East.

In all likelihood, Soto is a one-year acquisition. He is in his final offseason of arbitration eligibility. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for a $33MM salary that would break the all-time record for an arb-eligible player. While the Yankees are likely to inquire with Soto’s representatives at the Boras Corporation about a possible long-term extension, it is widely expected he’s strictly a one-year rental. The three-time All-Star rejected a $440MM offer from the Nationals prior to his trade to San Diego. The price would surely only be higher now that Soto is a season and a half closer to the open market.

The chance to discuss extension figures with Soto’s camp isn’t entirely without value, yet it’s far less important than ensuring he’ll be a Yankee in 2024. Manager Aaron Boone said this morning the Yankees were comfortable playing Judge in center field if necessary. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal thinks the team’s “most frequently used outfield” would indeed feature Judge in center despite the increased injury risk of that position, with Soto in right and Verdugo in left.

Given Giancarlo Stanton’s injury history, the Yankees should also be able to rotate their stars in the DH mix and use the glove-first Grisham in center. Top center field prospect Jasson Domínguez could factor in at some point later in the year after rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, while young left fielder Everson Pereira is likely to head back to Triple-A.

Grisham, who recently turned 27, played four seasons in San Diego. The Padres acquired him from the Brewers in a four-player trade after the 2019 campaign. Grisham had an excellent showing in the abbreviated 2020 season but has trended down offensively through the past few years. He was still a slightly better than average hitter in ’21 before falling below that in the last two seasons.

The left-handed hitter has run sub-Mendoza line batting averages in each of those campaigns. The Padres nevertheless stuck by him as their primary center fielder. Grisham has been patient enough to work a fair number of walks and reached double digits in homers for all four years in San Diego. His .191/.300/.347 line going back to the start of 2022 remains grisly, but the walks and serviceable power have been enough to make him a bottom-of-the-lineup regular.

Grisham is a plus defender in center field, annually receiving strong marks from Defensive Runs Saved and Statcast’s Outs Above Average. DRS has rated him 25 runs above average in his nearly 4100 career innings; Statcast has Grisham 30 runs better than par. The glove was enough for the Padres to tender him an arbitration contract projected around $4.9MM. Grisham will go through that process once more before qualifying for free agency after the 2025 campaign.

Between Verdugo, Soto and Grisham, the New York front office has added a trio of left-handed bats within a little more than 24 hours. Early in the offseason, general manager Brian Cashman called it a priority to bring in two lefty-swinging outfielders. There may not be one in the majors better than Soto.

It comes at the cost of a good chunk of their upper level pitching depth and significant cash. The Padres went into the offseason broadcasting a need to cut spending. The Friars had emerged as a surprising behemoth in recent years. Late owner Peter Seidler signed off on repeated sprees that pushed the Friars into the realms of the game’s top spenders. President of baseball operations A.J. Preller has never been shy about pursuing star talent.

That evidently hasn’t been entirely sustainable over the long haul. With reports of a need to scale back payroll toward the $200MM range to become compliant with MLB’s debt service ratio, speculation about a Soto trade has been rampant throughout the winter. He’d been projected for the highest 2024 salary of anyone on the roster. Yet the short-term commitment made it easier to move Soto for a noteworthy return than it would have been to shed money from a lengthy deal (e.g. Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts or Fernando Tatis Jr.).

With no intention to rebuild, the Padres needed to find a way to bring in rotation help. San Diego had arguably the sport’s best starting pitching last season. With each of Blake Snell, Nick Martinez, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha hitting free agency, they were down to essentially Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and a host of unproven options with limited payroll room.

The Yankees obliged, sending a handful of upper level arms. The package is headlined by King, a 28-year-old righty who broke out as a starter late last season. The Boston College product had been an effective multi-inning reliever for the bulk of his time in the Bronx. Reeling with rotation issues late in the year, the Yankees gave King a shot as a starter. They couldn’t have anticipated it going as well as it did.

In his nine starts, King pitched to a 2.23 ERA through 40 1/3 innings. He held opponents to a .243/.284/.355 line while striking out a stellar 31.3% of batters faced. The Yankees gradually built his workload, keeping him to five or fewer innings in all but two of those appearances. King found success in both outings he did work into the sixth, each against the Blue Jays, highlighted by a 13-strikeout performance on September 20.

There’s certainly risk in betting on King to hold up as a starter. This year’s 104 2/3 innings is a personal high at the MLB level, plus King was on the 60-day IL in 2021 and ’22 for a finger injury and an elbow fracture, respectively. The Padres hit on their gamble that Lugo could convert from the bullpen last offseason, though. King held his 94-95 MPH average fastball velocity and mixes four pitches. He has dominated hitters from either side of the plate and owns an overall 2.60 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 155 2/3 frames since the start of 2022. It’s a gamble, but there’s also significant upside.

The Padres control King for two seasons via arbitration. His earnings have been capped by his career résumé as a non-closing reliever. Swartz projects him for just a $2.6MM salary in 2024. Even if he performs well over a full season as a starter, he’d likely be capped in the $8-10MM range for ’25.

Brito and Vásquez held depth roles in the rotation as rookies in 2023. The former is a 25-year-old righty who worked 90 1/3 innings over 25 outings (13 starts). Brito pitched to a 4.28 ERA overall but fared much better out of the bullpen. He turned in a 1.43 ERA with a solid 24.3% strikeout rate in relief compared to a 6.32 mark with a 16.4% strikeout percentage from the rotation. That could point to a future in long relief, although prospect evaluators generally projected Brito as a possible back-end starter.

Vásquez, 25, posted a 2.87 ERA through his first 37 2/3 MLB frames. His strikeout and walk numbers were more middling. Vásquez also struggled to throw strikes in Triple-A, although he punched out nearly 27% of batters faced in 17 starts at the top minor league level. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he mixed six pitches (four-seam, sinker, cutter, sweeper, changeup and curveball) in his limited big league time.

Both hurlers still have two minor league options remaining. Neither has yet reached a full year of service. San Diego can control them for at least six seasons. They’re each reasonably valuable trade pieces, but Thorpe is the true secondary piece behind King.

A second-round pick in 2022, the 6’4″ righty was excellent in his first full professional season. Thorpe combined for a 2.52 ERA in 139 1/3 innings between High-A Hudson Valley and Double-A Somerset. He punched out more than a third of batters faced compared to a modest 7.1% walk rate. Baseball America had recently ranked him seventh among Yankee prospects.

According to BA, he sports a deep arsenal headlined by a plus changeup and good life on a 92-94 MPH fastball. He also has plus control and projects as a back-end or better starter. He’ll likely start the season in Double-A, but as an advanced college draftee, it’s not out of the question he’s on the mound at Petco Park sometime next summer.  Preller suggested as much in a post-trade press conference this evening.

Rounding out the return is Higashioka, a veteran catcher to back up 25-year-old Luis Campusano. Higashioka had spent a decade and a half in the Yankee organization dating back to his selection in the 2008 draft. He has settled in as a respected #2 presence behind the dish. Higashioka runs bottom of the barrel on-base grades but has reached double digit homers in three straight seasons. He has excellent pitch framing marks throughout his career, although Statcast metrics suggest his typically solid blocking ability plummeted this year.

Swartz projects the 33-year-old for a $2.3MM salary in his final season before free agency. With no cash considerations involved in the swap, the financial elements of the trade are limited to the players’ respective arbitration salaries. King and Higahioka are projected to make a total of $4.9MM; Soto and Grisham will combine for something in the $37.9MM range.

It represents around $33MM in savings for the Padres. Roster Resource projects the Friars around $156MM in actual spending. They’re at roughly $209MM in luxury tax commitments, around $28MM below the base threshold. There’s room for the front office to dip into the middle tiers of free agency. They’ll likely still look for some reliability in the back of the starting staff, a back-end reliever and add at least one outfielder. Tatis could theoretically slide from right to center field, although it’s widely expected they’ll pursue KBO center fielder Jung Hoo Lee.  Additionally, Preller stated his intention tonight to look to add more starting pitching.

The cost for the Yankees goes well beyond the $33MM difference in arbitration projections. The Yankees were already into luxury tax territory. Roster Resource now projects their CBT mark in the $290MM range, well into the third tier of penalization. The Yankees have paid the tax in each of the last two years, so they’re charged significantly higher penalties as repeat payors.

New York will pay a 50% tax on spending between $237MM and $257MM, 62% on their next $20MM, and 95% for spending between $277MM and $297MM. They’d be taxed at a 110% rate on every dollar past $297MM. The Yankees pretty clearly still need to add a starting pitcher and perhaps a reliever, and it’s worth considering that the cost of those additions would roughly double in 2024 due to the luxury tax – barring payroll subtractions in other places.

In total, today’s trade adds around $24.75MM in expected tax obligations. It amounts to a nearly $58MM investment for what’s primarily one season of Soto’s services and two years from Grisham. The Yankees could recoup a draft choice if Soto walks in free agency next year once he declines a qualifying offer, although that’d fall only after the fourth round because of New York’s CBT status.

Between the huge financial cost and the notable pitching talent, it’s a massive investment. That’s a testament both to Soto’s talent and the Yankees’ all-in approach to turning things around. It will likely be the biggest trade of the offseason and, unlike some blockbusters, it’s between two clubs that fully expect to compete for a playoff spot in 2024. Things are just beginning for both franchises.

Jack Curry of the YES Network reported this morning that a Soto trade was likely. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reported the Padres would receive King, Thorpe and at least two others. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirmed Grisham’s inclusion. Curry had the likely inclusions of Vásquez, Higashioka and Brito. Sherman first reported the deal was agreed upon.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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