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2020-21 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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Opening Day is about a month away, and here at MLB Trade Rumors it’s time to look ahead to the 2020-21 free agent class.  These players are on track to become free agents after the 2020 season, but a lot can change before we reach that point.  As always, these players are ranked by my estimate of their 2020-21 open market earning power.  You can see the full list of 2020-21 MLB free agents here.

1.  Mookie Betts.  A superstar right fielder who doesn’t turn 28 until October, Betts has a shot at the largest contract in MLB history.  That record is held by Mike Trout, who agreed to a 10-year, $360MM extension with the Angels one year ago.  Trout is better than Betts and everyone else, but he didn’t subject himself to an open-market bidding war.  Bryce Harper ($330MM) and Manny Machado ($300MM) did, albeit in a colder free agent environment than the one that just closed, which awarded Gerrit Cole a surprising $324MM.  Betts, a projected 6-WAR player for the 2020 Dodgers, could reasonably seek a ten-year term with an average annual value in the $36-40MM range.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post has reported that Betts turned down an eight-year, $200MM extension offer from the Red Sox after the 2017 season, while WEEI’s Lou Merloni says Boston offered a contract in the “ten year, $300MM range” fresh off Betts’ 2018 MVP campaign.  According to Merloni, Betts’ camp countered at 12 years, $420MM.  I know there’s an undercurrent that Betts’ reported counteroffer is ridiculous, but in reality, it reflects his market value.  He would be justified in seeking an AAV north of Anthony Rendon’s $35MM, and a term no shorter than the 10+ years achieved by Trout, Harper, Machado, Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Robinson Cano, and Joey Votto.

2.  J.T. Realmuto.  The largest free agent contract ever for a catcher is well within Realmuto’s sights.  The Phillies’ backstop, 29 in March, is one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball.  He also rates strongly in pitch framing and stolen base prevention.  With Russell Martin being paid through age 36 and Yadier Molina through age 37, Realmuto could aim to be locked up through age 35, which would require an unprecedented six-year deal and top the $100MM mark.  Joe Mauer and Buster Posey have reached that plateau in extensions, but it’s never been done by a catcher in free agency.

3.  George Springer.  Springer, 30, is a tough player to value given the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  According to Tony Adams’ calculations, 14.4% of Springer’s home plate appearances in 2017 included trash can banging.  The outfielder put up a strong ’17 season, but his finest year to date has been 2019.  MLB did not uncover evidence of the Astros stealing signs in 2019.

I’m no Astros apologist, but if I had to guess, I’d say the team’s sign stealing had minimal effect on Springer’s production at the plate.  He was an excellent hitter while cheating, and will likely continue to be while playing by the rules.  The stigma surrounding Springer and his teammates will surely carry into the 2020-21 offseason, and I could see fans having a longer memory on this than they do on steroids.  For today’s many cold, calculating front offices, Springer’s complicity in the Astros’ scheme may simply translate as a small bargain in free agency.  I imagine many teams would exchange a little bad PR for a 5-WAR player at a discount, especially since Springer didn’t actually hurt anyone.

4.  Marcus Semien.  Though he finished third in the AL MVP voting this year, Semien remains an underrated star shortstop for the Athletics.  Semien, 30 in September, jumped from a league average bat to a 137 wRC+ in 2019.  Paired with above average defense, Semien’s 7.6 WAR ranked fifth among MLB position players.  What will he do for a follow-up?  How much of Semien’s career-best power and walk rate will stick?  If Semien settles in as a 120 wRC+, 5-WAR player with his typical excellent durability, he’d be justified in seeking a six-year contract well in excess of $100MM.  Back in November, Jon Heyman suggested interest was mutual for an extension.

5.  Trevor Bauer.  Bauer, 29, has one elite season on his resume.  His 2018 season for the Indians included a 2.21 ERA, but otherwise he’s never been below 4.18.  After being traded to the Reds at the July deadline last year, Bauer limped to a 6.39 ERA over his final ten starts, allowing 12 home runs in 56 1/3 innings.  Bauer is known for his passion for his craft and his extensive work with Driveline Baseball.  He’s also one of the game’s most outspoken players, which you can read about here, or as it relates to the Astros scandal, here.  Bauer’s comments and tweets could certainly give some suitors pause, but, true to form, he’s got different ideas about free agency too.  Bauer has found a way to pay less than the typical 5% agency fee, which seems wise, and he’s also pledged to sign only one-year deals.  That could mean, in a given offseason, forgoing was much as $100MM in guaranteed money to maximize his annual take.  It’s a risky, fascinating proposition, especially for a pitcher.  If Bauer is true to his word, I expect he’ll land in the $20-30MM range on a one-year deal, depending on his season.  His overall earning power is much higher.

6.  Robbie Ray.  Born five months apart, Ray and Marcus Stroman make for an interesting comparison.  Their results over the last three years have been similar in terms of games started and ERA, but Ray employs a high strikeout, high walk, homer-prone approach for the Diamondbacks while Stroman succeeds via the groundball.  They’re both roughly 3-WAR pitchers for 2020, but Ray might be of slightly greater interest due to his ability to miss bats.

7.  Marcus Stroman.  Stroman’s 53.7% groundball rate ranked fifth among qualified starters in 2019, and he’s second in baseball for 2017-19.  In these homer-happy times, Stroman has allowed just 0.89 HR/9 over the last three years.  Both he and Ray will likely be looking to top the four-year, $68MM deals signed by Nathan Eovaldi and Miles Mikolas, and five years isn’t out of the question.

8.  Justin Turner.  Over the past three seasons, Turner’s 145 wRC+ ranks eighth in baseball among qualified hitters – better than Anthony Rendon, Freddie Freeman, Cody Bellinger, or Mookie Betts.  That mark dipped to a still-strong 132 in 2019, so the Dodgers’ third baseman remains an excellent hitter at age 35.  As you might expect, his defense is slipping.  Turner could still land a three-year deal at a strong salary, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer since he received one previously.

9.  DJ LeMahieu.  The Yankees’ two-year, $24MM deal with LeMahieu turned out to be one of the best deals of the offseason, as he posted a career-best 5.4 WAR.  The infielder had at least flirted with those heights once before, in 2016.  But much like Marcus Semien, LeMahieu’s free agent price tag could fluctuate quite a bit depending on how 2020 plays out.  A 4 WAR campaign could lead to a four-year contract.

10.  Nick Castellanos.  I debated between Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna for this last spot.  But the free agent market clearly preferred Castellanos, who is 15+ months younger, lacked a qualifying offer, and finished strong after being traded to the Cubs.  Perhaps that script could be flipped after 2020, especially since Castellanos can get a QO and Ozuna can’t.  But Castellanos seems primed to put up big offensive numbers in the Reds’ lineup, which could compel him to opt out of his remaining three years and $48MM and try to get a four-year deal again.

At this point, I’m assuming that the 2021 club options for Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Charlie Morton, Corey Kluber, Chris Archer, and Kolten Wong will vest or be picked up.  If not, you’d have to assume the player had a poor season.  I’m also assuming for now that Giancarlo Stanton will not opt out of his remaining seven years and $218MM.

The Power Rankings are fluid, however, and any of these Honorable Mentions could find their way on: Andrelton Simmons, Marcell Ozuna, Mike Minor, James Paxton, Didi Gregorius, Kirby Yates, Liam Hendriks, Masahiro Tanaka, and Jose Quintana.

Luis Severino Shut Down Due To Forearm Discomfort

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In yet another bit of troubling injury news for Yankees fans, manager Aaron Boone revealed Thursday that right-hander Luis Severino is experiencing forearm soreness that dates all the way back to his final ALCS appearance in 2019 (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).  Severino also has a loose body in his elbow, per Boone.  He’ll be shut down for at least the next few days and will be examined by team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad tomorrow.  Asked if Severino would be ready for Opening Day, Boone could only reply, “We’ll see.”

While tomorrow’s doctor visit will shed more light on the specifics of Severino’s issue, obviously this isn’t at all how the righty hoped to begin his Spring Training, especially not in the wake of what was essentially a lost 2019 season.  Severino pitched only 20 1/3 total innings (12 in the regular season, 8 1/3 in the postseason) last year after a shoulder injury and then a lat strain kept him from making his season debut until September 17.

Any mention of a forearm injury also raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, the worst-case scenario that would sideline Severino until Opening Day 2021 at the earliest.  Back in 2016 (and on the updated list in 2017), MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum created a model for predicting what pitchers are the largest risks for TJ surgeries, with Severino ranking as having a better-than-average chance at a future procedure in both rankings.

It was a little over one year ago that Severino signed a four-year, $40MM extension that has yet to yield any return for the Yankees.  The deal covered Severino’s four arbitration-eligible years (and, via a club option for 2023, the first of his free-agent seasons) so the Yankees gained some cost certainty with the extension, though it did boost the right-hander’s luxury tax number over the course of the next four seasons.  While a $10MM average annual value is small potatoes for a big-market team like New York, every extra dollar is impactful for Competitive Balance Tax purposes, considering the Yankees were over the luxury tax threshold in 2019 and are currently projected to soar well over the highest luxury tax penalty threshold of $248MM in 2020.

With James Paxton already out of action until at least May, the Yankees’ rotation would take a further hit if Severino is required to miss any time.  Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ are the projected top three in the rotation, with a group that consists of Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Michael King, and Jonathan Loaisiga now potentially battling for two rotation spots, rather than just the fifth starter’s role in Paxton’s absence.

Red Sox Sign Jonathan Lucroy

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4:50pm: Lucroy would earn a $1.5MM base salary were he to crack the Major League roster, Rob Bradford of WEEI reports (via Twitter).

February 19, 1:30pm: The Red Sox have formally announced the deal. They’re now up to 67 players in Major League camp.

February 18: The Red Sox have a minor-league deal in place with free agent backstop Jonathan Lucroy. Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter) first reported it was coming close; Jon Heyman of MLB Network added on Twitter that a minors pact had been completed.

At 33 years of age, Lucroy is no longer the multi-dimensional performer he once was. One of the game’s best all-around backstops from 2012 through 2016, the vet has since settled into a journeyman existence.

Over the past three seasons, Lucroy carries a cumulative .248/.315/.350 batting line over 1,263 plate appearances. He’s still tough to strike out but just doesn’t make the kind of contact he once did. That’s reflected in declines in his power numbers, batting average and on-base percentage.

Lucroy’s once-vaunted skills behind the dish have also diminished. Although he was at one point the face of the pitch-framing awakening and a highly regarded smotherer of errant pitches, Lucroy has in recent years consistently graded in the negative in both areas (by measure of Baseball Prospectus).

If that’s all a bit negative, it’s because Lucroy set such a high standard earlier in his career. He promises to represent worthwhile catching depth for the Red Sox and could perhaps even challenge for a roster spot if there’s an injury or the team considers a third catcher behind Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki.

Red Sox, Padres Reportedly Still Negotiating Wil Myers Swap

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FEBRUARY 19: The Pads are indeed interested in both Lindor and Senzel, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription link). It’s even possible that the Myers talks with the Red Sox could morph into a three-team arrangement involving the Reds, Lin adds.

FEBRUARY 18: Spring Training is now upon us. Prior talks failed to result in a deal. And yet the Red Sox are still holding talks with the Padres about a potential deal that would send first baseman/outfielder Wil Myers to Boston, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Details are about as firm as you could ever hope to see them in a rumor of a potential swap. As before, the Friars want the Sox to take over about half of Myers’s salary (total guarantee of $61MM) over the next three years. Young talent would go to Boston to sweeten the pot. Players that have been discussed include Cal Quantrill, Luis Campusano, and Gabriel Arias, though it’s not clear which would be included and the Sox wouldn’t be able to obtain all of them just to take on half of what’s owed Myers.

That leaves out one major component of the as-yet-uncompleted trade talks: what would come back from the Red Sox? The original chatter between these teams involved Mookie Betts, who is no longer in the Boston stable. There’s no real indication just yet as to what current Red Sox might pique the interest of Padres GM A.J. Preller.

Yet more intriguing? The real goal, per Acee, is to swing a blockbuster for a high-level talent. He notes Nick Senzel of the Reds and Francisco Lindor of the Indians as longstanding targets, but it’s not really clear whether either is realistically available at this point. There aren’t many other conceivable candidates to be acquired who’d meet the description of a “difference-making” performer.

It’s fair to hold some skepticism here, especially as to the possible second prong of this scenario. Then again, Preller once pulled off a trade for Craig Kimbrel just before the start of a season, so it’s tough to rule out any mid-spring fireworks.

Write For MLB Trade Rumors

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We’re looking to add one person to the MLBTR writing team, in a part-time position that pays hourly.  The criteria:

  • Availability to work this shift every week: 5pm-1am central time on Saturday nights
  • Exceptional knowledge of all 30 baseball teams, no discernible bias. Knowledge of hot stove concepts like arbitration, draft pick compensation for free agents, and the competitive balance tax.
  • A high school degree is required, and further education is preferred. Please include your highest completed level of education in your application.
  • Writing experience is necessary, and online writing experience is preferred.
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  • The job may include opportunities for supporting research and social media tasks.
  • If you’re interested, email mlbtrhelp@gmail.com and explain how you stand out and qualify in a couple of short paragraphs.  Please attach your resume to the email.  We often receive several hundred applications, so unfortunately we will not be able to reply to each one.

At the end of your application, please fill in the blank:  After the ____ season ends, assuming the CBA remains unchanged and he does not sign a contract extension or go to the minors, Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins will become a free agent.  Rather than give an explanation, simply write, “Hoskins question: [Year]” at the end.

Brewers To Sign Brock Holt

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The Brewers have agreed to a deal with infielder Brock Holt, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). If the physical checks out, Holt will be a late addition to a Milwaukee roster that has already seen multiple infield acquisitions.

Holt was one of the top remaining free agents. The 31-year-old may not leap off the page in many regards but he has been quite a useful player. At his best, Holt has turn in roughly league-average offensive work while contributing with the glove at multiple positions.

It’s hardly surprising that the Brewers wish to provide a Swiss Army knife to skipper Craig Counsell. It’s just that he already has a few in his knapsack. The club had already picked up defensive vagabonds Luis Urias, Eric Sogard, Jedd Gyorko, Ryon Healy, Ronny Rodriguez, and Mark Mathias this winter, in addition to adding non-roster players Jace Peterson and Andres Blanco.

Among the players added, Holt probably comes with the most functions. In particular, he’s capable of lining up anywhere in the field that doesn’t involve extra protective gear or a climb atop a hill. Holt has played at least 200 MLB innings at six positions and 75 2/3 at one other (shortstop) — and he has mostly done so with solid-to-good grades from metrics.

He has always reached base at a solid rate, producing a career .340 OBP by carrying solid walk rates and strong batting averages. Holt has trended up in the past two seasons at the plate, turning in a collective .286/.366/.407 batting line in 662 plate appearances — a bit above the league-average overall output.

Those nice efforts with the bat came on the heels of a tough 2017 season in which Holt struggled with symptoms of a concussion, vertigo, and anxiety. It’s obviously great to see him rebound since, though Holt has not returned with quite the same athleticism. Once a highly graded and rather swift baserunner, Holt now rates in the bottom third or so leaguewide in terms of sprint speed.

While Holt doesn’t carry drastic career platoon splits, he has been a bit better — especially in the power department — when facing opposite-handed pitching during his career. The left-handed hitter seems likely to supplement the right-handed-hitting Keston Hiura at second base, spend some time in the corner outfield, and perhaps line up occasionally at third base. Fellow left-handed-hitting utilityman Eric Sogard is also primarily a second baseman by trade, but has more experience on the left side of the infield than does Holt and could see most of his action there.

Francis Martes Suspended Full Season For PED

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Astros righty Francis Martes has been suspended for 162 games after testing positive for the banned performance enhancing drug baldenone. It was his second such test; he had previously served an 80-game suspension during the 2019 season.

Martes was once considered a high-grade prospect and still owns a 40-man roster spot. He was working back from Tommy John surgery, which would’ve cost him all of last year even were it not for the suspension.

It has now been quite some time since Martes enjoyed success on the field. He reached the majors in 2017 but didn’t stick after throwing 54 1/3 innings of 5.80 ERA ball with 11.4 K/9 and 5.1 BB/9. Martes has only made it through 25 minor-league frames over the past two campaigns.

Martes’s future is now very much in doubt. At the same time, he only reached his 24th birthday in November. He’ll obviously need both to reevaluate his decisionmaking process and rediscovery his form on the mound if he’s to carve out a big league career.

Braves Extend Alex Anthopoulos, Brian Snitker

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The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve promoted general manager Alex Anthopoulos to president of baseball operations and extended his contract through the 2024 season. The Atlanta organization also announced contract extensions for manager Brian Snitker and his entire coaching staff; they’ll now be in place through the 2021 season. Anthopoulos had previously bee under contract through the 2021 season, while Snitker was signed through 2020 with a club option for 2021.

“I am very pleased that Alex will be leading the Atlanta Braves’ baseball operations for years to come,” chairman Terry McGuirk said in the press release announcing the news. “Since he joined the organization, Alex has continued the winning tradition that Braves fans have come to expect.”

Alex Anthopoulos | Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports

The 42-year-old Anthopoulos has been the Braves’ head of baseball operations since Nov. 13, 2017, when he was hired following the ousting of GM John Coppolella. The former Blue Jays GM and Dodgers vice president of baseball operations wasted little time in orchestrating a complex, financially motivated swap with one of his former clubs; in December 2017, Anthopoulos traded Matt Kemp and the remainder of his contract to the Dodgers in exchange for Adrian Gonzalez, Brandon McCarthy, Charlie Culberson, Scott Kazmir and $4.5MM.

The remainder of the 2017-18 offseason was a quiet one for Anthopoulos, although his spring pickup of Anibal Sanchez proved to be one of the minor league signings in recent memory, as Sanchez completely revitalized his career as a key rotation piece for the division-winning Braves.

Since that first offseason at the helm, Anthopoulos has become considerably more active both in trade and free agency. The Braves, under Anthopoulos, have shied away from long-term deals for aging veterans but have been aggressive in short-term pacts, signing the likes of Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel, Marcell Ozuna, Cole Hamels, Travis d’Arnaud and Chris Martin to one- and two-year deals. Lefty Will Smith is the only free agent under this regime to sign a deal of three years. Anthopoulos has been active at both trade deadlines under his watch as well, acquiring pitchers Kevin Gausman, Shane Greene, Mark Melancon, Darren O’Day and the aforementioned Martin in a series of July swaps.

The best moves the Braves have made under Anthopoulos were surely locking down a pair of their own core pieces, however. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s eight-year, $100MM contract and Ozzie Albies’ seven-year, $35MM contract are two of the most extreme examples of club-friendly deals throughout the sport. That pairing surrendered a stunning eight would-be free-agent seasons (four apiece), giving the Braves control over the majority of their prime years at well below-market rates. In the long run, both deals should provide exceptional levels of flexibility both in terms of actual payroll and luxury-tax obligations.

Anthopoulos’ track record isn’t spotless, of course. The Gausman acquisition paid dividends in 2018 but yielded disastrous results in 2019. It’s still rather surprising that he agreed to take on all of the $14MM owed to Melancon for the 2020 season in last July’s trade. And time will tell whether the decision to let Donaldson walk rather than match (or at least come close to matching) the Twins’ $92MM guarantee. All of that said, there’s little question that Anthopoulos has helped to maintain a strong farm system while supporting the big league roster with sensible, short-term additions. The Braves are in position to contend for a third straight division title in the NL East, and there’s little reason to think that won’t be the case for years to come, thanks to a controllable core centered around Acuna, Albies, Dansby Swanson, Mike Soroka and Max Fried.

Brian Snitker | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Turning to the 64-year-old Snitker, he’s now locked in for what will be his fourth and fifth full years with the reins in Atlanta’s dugout. A Braves lifer who has spent a staggering 40-plus years in the organization in some capacity, Snitker served as a minor league coach, minor league manager, Major League bullpen coach and Major League third base coach before taking over as interim manager in 2016. This is the second short-term extension he’s signed since being hired as the club’s full-time skipper.

“Winning consecutive division titles illustrates the leadership and impact of Brian and his staff,” Anthopoulos said of the extension. “We are happy to know they will be leading the Braves through the 2021 season.”

Under Snitker’s leadership, the Braves have played at a 318-292 clip (.521) — including a 187-137 showing over the past two seasons. His 90-72 record in 2018 helped him to win National League Manager of the Year honors. However, the Braves have also yet to advance in a postseason series under Snitker. They were bounced by the Dodgers in the 2018 NLDS and by the Cardinals in the 2019 NLDS.

Also receiving contract extensions through the 2021 season Monday were catching coach Sal Fasano, pitching coach Rick Kranitz, bullpen coach Marty Reed, hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, third base coach Ron Washington, bench coach Walt Weiss, first base/outfield coach Eric Young Sr. and assistant hitting coach Jose Castro.

Rob Manfred Addresses Astros Scandal

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In an interview with ESPN’s Karl Ravech and during a press conference at the Braves’ Spring Training camp earlier today, commissioner Rob Manfred discussed a number of topics surrounding the game, but the bulk of attention was directly on the ongoing fallout from the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.

Asked by Ravech why no Astros players were suspended or fined as part of the league’s investigation, Manfred said that “in a perfect world it would have happened.  We ended up where we ended up in pursuit of really, I think, the most important goal of getting the facts and getting them out there for people to know it.”

Players were given immunity so that the league could freely acquire information on the details of the now-infamous sign-stealing process, which involved Astros players alerting (using signals ranging from whistling to banging a trash can) teammates at the plate as to what pitches were coming, after the Astros used real-time video technology to observe rival catchers’ signs.  Such use of available video was forbade in a memo sent from the Commissioner’s Office to teams in 2017, but Manfred said Astros players weren’t made aware of the seriousness of the offense.

“The memorandum went to the general manager, and then nothing was done from the GM down,” Manfred said. “So we knew if we had disciplined the players in all likelihood we were going to have grievances and grievances that we were going to lose on the basis that we never properly informed them of the rules.  Given those two things, No. 1, I knew where, or I’m certain where the responsibilities should lay in the first instance and given the fact we didn’t think we could make discipline stick with the players, we made the decision we made.”

Since the league’s ruling on the Astros’ punishment last month, Major League Baseball has faced widespread criticism from both fans and rival players about not only a seeming lack of discipline directed towards Houston players, but also at the franchise itself.  While the Astros were fined $5MM and lost four draft picks, the fact that the organization wasn’t formally stripped of its 2017 World Series title has not sat well with many around the sport.

As Manfred told the Associated Press and other journalists, the league considered such a singular measure but decided against taking the championship away from the Astros.

“First of all, it had never happened in baseball,” Manfred said.  “I am a precedent guy.  The 2017 World Series will always be looked at as different, whether not you put an asterisk or ask for the trophy back.  Once you go down that road as for changing the result on the field, I just don’t know where you stop.”

In regards to Astros players, Manfred told Ravech that the outrage directed at the team has served as a measure of additional punishment unto itself.  “I think if you watch the players, watch their faces when they have to deal with this issue publicly, they have paid a price,” Manfred said.  “To think they’re skipping down the road into spring training, happy, that’s just a mischaracterization of where we are.”

The early response to Manfred’s comments have not been positive, with particular criticism directed towards his rather flippant description of the Commissioner’s Trophy (as Manfred told Ravech, “The idea of an asterisk or asking for a piece of metal back seems like a futile act“).  As much as the league and the Astros would like to put the incident behind them, that outcome doesn’t seem possible in the near future given the amount of attention that several of the game’s biggest stars continue to focus on the situation.  It also doesn’t help that Astros management and players continue to dig themselves into deeper public relations holes on a near-daily basis, whether it’s giving non-specific apologies during awkward press conferences, being unduly outraged at being accused of different methods of cheating during the 2017-19 span, and all the while insisting that the 2017 World Series was legitimately won.

The heated comments between the Astros and rival players has troubled Manfred, particularly statements from such pitchers as Ross Stripling and Mike Clevinger that Astros players might be hit by pitches as retaliation.  Manfred met with several MLB managers today, and told reporters at Sunday’s press event that, “I hope that I made it extremely clear to them that retaliation in-game by throwing at a batter intentionally will not be tolerated, whether it’s Houston or anybody else.  It’s dangerous and it is not helpful to the current situation.”

In addition, Manfred told Ravech that the league is preparing “a memorandum about intentionally throwing at batters.  It’s really dangerous.  Completely independent from the Astros investigation, we’ll be issuing a memorandum on hit by pitches which will increase the disciplinary ramifications of that type of behavior.  I think that will be a tool for dealing with whatever flows from the Houston situation.”

If the Astros controversy wasn’t enough, there’s also the other ongoing league investigation into another championship team’s alleged improper use of video equipment, namely the 2018 Red Sox.  Manfred said that he hopes that investigation will be concluded within two weeks’ time.  It isn’t known what punishment could await the Boston organization, though as with the Astros case, Red Sox players were also given immunity in exchange for their insight on the matter.

Red Sox Sign Kevin Pillar

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7:37pm: This one’s in the books, with the Sox announcing the signing.

5:25am: The Red Sox are reportedly in agreement on a one-year, $4.25MM deal with free-agent outfielder Kevin Pillar. The All Bases Covered Sports Management client is said to be set for a physical this weekend, after which the deal will be officially announced by the club (assuming all goes well).

Kevin Pillar | Zach Gardner/MLBTR Photoshop

Pillar, 31, was non-tendered by the Giants earlier in the winter after hitting .259/.287/.432 with a career-high 21 home runs in 2019. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $9.7MM in arbitration. Pillar also swiped 14 bags — his fifth straight season with at least that many — and struck out in just 13.8 percent of his plate appearances. However, the longtime Blue Jays center fielder also only walked at a 2.8 percent clip — a career low — and the resulting .287 on-base percentage was one of the worst marks of any qualified MLB hitter.

Defensively, he played a roughly average center field by measure of metrics like Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average. That’s a step back from the days when he graded out as one of MLB’s premier defensive players, but Pillar is still at least a serviceable option in center and likely an above-average glove in the corners.

Following the trade of Mookie Betts, the Red Sox had an all-left-handed-hitting outfield comprised of Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and newly acquired Alex Verdugo. Pillar will give them a right-handed hitting complement to that bunch as well as insurance against an injury (or perhaps an eventual trade of Bradley) at any of the three positions. He’s a career .281/.313/.453 hitter against southpaws, so while he’s not exactly a lefty masher, he’s still a bit above average in those situations.

Dumping the salaries of Betts and David Price (well, half of his deal) in the Dodgers trade dropped the Red Sox south of the $208MM luxury tax threshold by a bit less than $10MM. They should be able to bring Pillar aboard while maintaining ownership’s preference to remain south of that cutoff.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reported that the two sides were close to a deal. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal added that a Major League pact was in the works. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported that a deal had been reached, and Heyman tweeted the final guarantee.

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