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Reds Acquire, Extend Sonny Gray As Part Of Three-Team Trade

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4:15pm: The Mariners have now announced their portion of the trade as well: they’ve acquired Long from the Yankees in exchange for Stowers.

4:12pm: The Reds and Yankees have announced their portion of the trade: Gray and Sanmartin have been dealt to the Reds in exchange for Sanmartin and a Competitive Balance Round A selection. Cincinnati also announced Gray’s new three-year contract.

3:40pm: After several days of reporting and speculation, right-hander Sonny Gray has reportedly been traded from the Yankees to the Reds and also agreed to a contract extension with Cincinnati. It’s said to be a three-team deal involving the Mariners. Second base prospect Shed Long and a Competitive Balance Round A pick will go from the Reds to the Yankees in exchange for Gray and left-hander Reiver Sanmartin. New York, according to multiple reports, will flip Long directly to the Mariners in return for center field prospect Josh Stowers — the Mariners’ second-round pick in the 2018 draft.

Sonny Gray | Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

As part of the trade, Gray has agreed to a new, three-year contract extension with the Reds that’ll span the 2020-22 seasons. He’ll earn $30.5MM over those three campaigns — that’s in addition to his $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season. The contract also reportedly comes with a $12MM club option for the 2023 season. There are $500K worth of incentives based on innings pitched in each new season of the deal, and his annual salaries can grow based on performance escalators.

Cincinnati emerged as a front-runner to land Gray last Friday, and his addition will be the third such pickup of the Reds’ offseason, joining lefty Alex Wood and fellow righty Tanner Roark. That trio will be added to a new-look Cincinnati rotation that’s also projected to include holdovers Luis Castillo and Anthony DeSclafani. It’s a group that should give the Reds a vastly more competitive outlook in 2019 while likely pushing names such as Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Tyler Mahle, Jackson Stephens and others out of the Major League rotation mix and either into bullpen roles or back to the minors (Stephenson, it should be noted, is out of options).

A change of scenery for Gray, 29, only makes sense after he struggled profusely with the Yankees in 2018 — particularly when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray posted a ghastly 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 compared to a 3.17 ERA on the road, and while there’s surely more at play in those splits than the surface-level numbers exhibit, the contrast between the two numbers is unequivocally jarring.

The Reds quite likely found it encouraging that Gray’s velocity remained consistent with its previous levels (93.8 mph average fastball), that his swinging-strike rate remained north of 10 percent and that his ground-ball tendencies (50 percent) remained above the league average. Gray actually allowed home runs at his lowest rate since 2015 as well (0.97 HR/9; 13.3% HR/FB), despite pitching more than 40 percent of his innings at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. Of course, he’ll be moving to a similarly hitter-friendly setting in the form of Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park, though the move to the National League should prove beneficial.

With the extension now in place, the trade of Gray differs starkly from Cincinnati’s acquisition of Wood and Roark, each of whom is a pure one-year rental. In essence, it’s a bet that the move into a lower-pressure setting could help Gray in a similar manner that Matt Harvey seemed to benefit following his own trade over from the Mets this past May. Gray, it should be noted, is not far removed from an extended run as a high-quality arm; the former No. 18 overall draft pick entered the 2018 season with a career 3.45 ERA in 770 1/3 innings, highlighted by an All-Star nod and a third-place Cy Young finish in 2015.

While it may be too much to expect for Gray to return to those lofty heights, he at the very least has the potential to help comprise a radically improved Reds rotation and gives the team some long-term stability a a time when many of the pitching prospects acquired over the course of Cincinnati’s rebuild have yet failed to pan out.

Cincinnati will also add a left-handed option to the middle levels of its farm system in the form of Sanmartin. While he wasn’t considered to be one of the organization’s top prospects, Sanmartin reached Double-A for the first time last season, at the age of 22, and pitched to an overall 2.81 ERA with a 58-to-4 K/BB ratio in 67 1/3 innings between Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A. New York originally acquired Sanmartin out of the Rangers organization in a swap that sent righty Ronald Herrera to Texas.

Long, meanwhile, will head to the Mariners in a surprise development and give Seattle a prospect that is not far from big league readiness. The 23-year-old Long was a 12th-round pick by the Reds back in 2013 but has vastly outperformed that draft billing, rising to the Double-A ranks and hitting at a .261/.353/.412 clip with a dozen homers and 19 stolen bases this past season. Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs ranked Long seventh among Reds farmhands just last month, noting that the converted catcher still has some defensive question marks at second base. That said, he has the bat to profile as a regular there if he can improve his glovework, and if not, he could move to an outfield corner.

Stowers, meanwhile, is several years further from the point where he’d need to be added to the 40-man roster in New York. He went a round or two higher in the draft than many expected on the heels of a strong finish to his college season at Louisville, and it seems that given New York’s quick acquisition of him, the Mariners weren’t the only ones who hoped to snag him in the draft’s early rounds. The Yankees will also acquire a pick that is currently slotted in at No. 36 overall but could move a bit, depending on the outcome of the remaining free agents who rejected qualifying offers (and the subsequent draft pick compensation attached to them). The No. 36 slot last season came with a $1.967MM slot value, meaning the Yankees have likely added another $2MM+ to their bonus pool in the 2019 draft.

A trade of Gray has been expected since early in the offseason since Yankees general manager Brian Cashman openly spoke about his desire to find a change of scenery for Gray. Today’s swap gives the Yankees a rotation consisting of Luis Severino, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ and CC Sabathia. With Gray no longer in the fold, the Yankees’ top depth options are Domingo German, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa and Chance Adams. The organization likely hopes to have lefty Jordan Montgomery, who underwent Tommy John surgery early last summer, can return late in the 2019 season, though it certainly possesses ample rotation depth even if he’s shelved into the 2020 season.

The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported Friday that the Reds were closing in on a deal to acquire Gray. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted over the weekend that Long and the draft pick would likely be involved in the deal, if completed. Rosenthal first added that the trade could hinge on an extension. ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported today that Gray had been traded, confirming Long’s inclusion and adding that he’d been flipped to Seattle for Stowers. Rosenthal reported the extension and the terms of Gray’s new contract. Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer added Sanmartin’s inclusion in the swap.

Diamondbacks Sign Wilmer Flores

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Jan. 21: The Diamondbacks have formally announced the signing.

Jan. 16, 3:00pm: Flores’ contract guarantees him $4.25MM, Passan tweets. He’ll earn a $3.75MM base salary in 2019 and have a $500K buyout on a $6MM option for the 2020 season.

2:22pm: The Diamondbacks are in agreement on a one-year contract with free-agent infielder Wilmer Flores, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). The contract also contains a club option for a second season. Passan’s colleague, Pedro Gomez, had previously tweeted that the McNamara Baseball Group client was closing in on a deal with an NL West club, and Fancred’s Jon Heyman listed the D-backs as one of his suitors shortly thereafter. The deal is still pending completion of a physical.

Wilmer Flores | Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Flores, 27, was non-tendered by the Mets earlier this winter in his final offseason or arbitration eligibility. He’d been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.7MM, and the new-look Mets front office felt that sum to be too costly coming given the team’s crowded infield mix (which has since become more cluttered) and a diagnosis of early onset arthritis in both knees.

Last season, Flores hit .267/.319/.417 with 11 homers and 25 doubles in 386 trips to the plate while seeing time at first base, second base, third base and (during interleague play) designated hitter for the Mets. That production is more or less in line with what Flores had done in each of the past two seasons, but it’s worth noting that Flores’ output against left-handed pitching cratered last season.

Typically, Flores’ right-handed bat is a thorn in the side of opposing southpaws, but he instead mustered a timid .237/.284/.326 slash in 135 plate appearances with the platoon advantage. That’s a far cry from the .314/.349/.620 slash that Flores registered in 324 PAs against lefties from 2015-17 and was obviously a cause for concern among Mets decision-makers.

With the Diamondbacks, Flores can bounce around the infield, giving the Snakes a right-handed complement to Jake Lamb (who struggles mightily against lefties) while also spelling Ketel Marte at second base. There’s also been talk of moving Marte to center field, and the addition of Flores could make that transition easier on the Diamondbacks, should Marte prove adept in the outfield come Spring Training. At the very least, perhaps Arizona could play Marte in center field against lefties and deploy Flores at second base those days, thus giving Jarrod Dyson (who has also struggled against southpaws in his career) some protection from same-handed pitchers.

The D-backs may not done adding complementary pieces to their infield and outfield mix, so it’s possible, too, that future signings/acquisitions will further shed some light on the manner in which the organization plans to utilize Flores.

Yankees, Reds “Finalizing” Sonny Gray Trade; Reds Trying To Extend Gray

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11:19am: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the Yankees had offers from multiple teams they’d have accepted for Gray as of last Friday, so if talks with the Reds don’t pan out, those proposals could once again come into play.

Jan. 21, 10:08am: Heyman tweets that there’s some optimism from the Reds that they’ll be able to work out an extension before today’s window closes. However, if the extension doesn’t materialize (and, thus, the currently proposed trade does not go through), the Yankees may “look elsewhere” for a trade partner for Gray.

Jan. 20, 4:56pm: A resolution on a Yankees-Reds trade is not expected tonight, and a deadline on a 72-hour negotiation window between Gray and Cincy is sometime late on Monday, Rosenthal tweets.

11:03am:  The Reds are indeed attempting to extend Gray, according to Heyman, who adds the two teams have agreed on a trade package. But whether Gray gets an extension could affect the return for him.

10:37am: It’s possible the Reds are trying to sign Gray to an extension before acquiring him, Rosenthal tweets, though he notes a deal could come together either way.

Jan. 19, 6:08pm: The two sides are “finalizing” the deal, per Heyman, who reports the Yankees will likely receive Long and a draft pick. The Yankees could also land a third piece in the trade, Heyman suggests.

2:31pm: Per Heyman, the Reds would prefer not to include Stephenson in a deal for Gray, and talks now “center around” Long. Stephenson, 22, was the 11th overall selection in the 2015 draft, and has steadily progressed through the Cincinnati farm. In last month’s update, Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs projected the 6’4″ righty as an average regular, lauding his double-plus arm and 60 grade raw power. Long also projects as a regular, though perhaps not at second, where he has “below average hands” and “clunky footwork,” per Fangraphs’ scouting report.

Jan. 19, 9:02am: Expect Gray to be moved sometime this weekend, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The Reds and Yankees are inching closer to a deal, with two prospects and a draft pick the expected return for Gray. Long and Stephenson (currently the #6 and #7 prospects in the Reds system per MLB.com) are the prospects most likely to be headed to New York. It’s not a done deal, however, as the Giants, Brewers, and Braves are still part of the conversation.

Jan. 18, 4:55pm: There are other teams still involved, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (Twitter link), including at least the Padres and Giants. There have been some discussions of three-team arrangements, Martino also notes.

Jan. 18, 2:33pm: The Reds are “making progress” in their talks with the Yankees regarding veteran righty Sonny Gray, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It emerged yesterday that the Yanks were nearing a deal involving the starter, though multiple organizations were still said to be involved in talks.

It seems fair now to assume that the Cincinnati club is emerging as a favorite, though it’s certainly too soon to rule out alternatives. The Reds have already added a pair of starters via trade in Tanner Roark and Alex Wood. Like those hurlers, Gray is entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. He’ll earn $7.5MM after agreeing to terms with the Yankees, making him a bit less costly than the other two pitchers.

The potential return remains to be seen, and obviously hasn’t quite been nailed down. Jon Heyman of Fancred reports (Twitter links) that the organizations are still discussing different prospects — second baseman Shed Long and catcher Tyler Stephenson among them — while a draft pick could also be part of the return. (That would have to be the Reds’ 2019 competitive balance pick, which is a valuable sandwich-round selection currently slotted in at No. 36 overall.)

If they can wrap up an agreement, the Reds would certainly present quite a different rotation than the ones they have trotted out in recent years. Roark, Wood, and (hypothetically) Gray all have their warts, but each has found plenty of success in the majors. They’d likely join Anthony DeSclafani and hard-throwing Luis Castillo to round out the starting five under new manager David Bell.

It’s notable, of course, that none of Roark, Wood or Gray comes with control rights beyond the ’19 season. The same is also true of recently acquired outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp. It’s possible that the Reds simply prefer one-year commitments at this time, which would allow them the chance to reevaluate their future needs after the conclusion of the 2019 season.

Dodgers Have Discussed Joc Pederson With Multiple Clubs

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Jan. 21: The Braves have also “checked on” a trade involving Pederson, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred. It’s still not clear  how many teams have been in contact with L.A., nor is it clear whether there’s any momentum surrounding a potential Pederson deal. However, the connection with Atlanta is only logical. The Braves have an obvious corner-outfield vacancy at the moment, and Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos spent the 2016-17 seasons as the Dodgers’ vice president of baseball operations before accepting his current position.

Jan. 20: The Dodgers are discussing outfielder Joc Pederson in potential deals, and the White Sox are among the teams they’re talking to, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports. It’s unclear, though, whether the two sides are making progress in those conversations.

Speculatively, trading Pederson could further open up room in LA for free-agent center fielder A.J. Pollock, whom the team is pursuing. And essentially swapping the lefty-swinging Pederson for the right-handed Pollock would enable the Dodgers’ lineup to become more balanced, which is reportedly among their offseason objectives. At the same time, though, waving goodbye to Pederson would mean losing a productive, affordable player who’s under arbitration control through the 2020 season. He’ll earn a reasonable $5MM this year after avoiding arbitration earlier this month.

While the 26-year-old Pederson has never been effective versus left-handed pitchers, who have held him to a woeful .181/.266/.317 line since he debuted in 2014, it has been a different story against righties. Most recently, Pederson posted an overall .248/.321/.522 line (126 wRC+) in 2018 with 25 home runs and 2.7 fWAR over 443 plate appearances. Despite his limitations against same-handed hurlers, Pederson has approached or exceeded 3.0 fWAR in three of the past four seasons. That type of production would be welcome in Chicago, whose outfield ranked dead last in fWAR (minus-1.2) in 2018. The unit has since lost one of its regulars, now-Ray Avisail Garcia, who was merely a replacement-level player last season, though it did add Jon Jay in free agency. Jay had a subpar 2018 in his own right, however, and hasn’t offered particularly strong production over the past few years.

Jay’s now part of a group which also includes Daniel Palka, Adam Engel and Leury Garcia, though all three of those outfielders registered underwhelming results last year. Fortunately for the White Sox, they do have a premier outfield prospect in Eloy Jimenez, whom they figure to promote early in the season and who could make a significant impact from the get-go. But Jimenez’s presence isn’t going to prevent the White Sox from trying to upgrade elsewhere in the grass, evidenced by their interest in Pederson and their pursuit of free-agent standout Bryce Harper.

Angels Sign Cody Allen

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Jan. 20: The deal is official, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The incentives are for $2MM, not $2.5MM, Jeff Fletcher of the Southern California News Group reports.

Jan. 18: Allen will be guaranteed $8.5MM and can earn another $2.5MM based on his number of games finished, Rosenthal tweets. It’s a straight one-year deal with no options, which will allow Allen to re-enter the market next offseason — hopefully on the heels of a rebound campaign. The signing is still pending a physical.

Jan. 17: The Angels have reportedly secured a one-year deal with veteran reliever Cody Allen. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link) first indicated that something may be in place, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan and Alden Gonzalez (Twitter links) reported that terms had indeed been agreed to.

The Meister Sports Management client will need to pass a physical before the deal is official. If and when that comes to pass, it seems he’ll earn something in the realm of $9MM, though that’s not fully clear. Incentive pay could also be a feature, though that too has yet to be reported. Neither is it yet known whether the pact includes an option, though Passan suggests that’s also a possibility.

Notably, Rosenthal indicates that Allen was specifically seeking an opportunity to function as a closer — a role he has a rather clear path to in Anaheim. By prioritizing the opportunity over the total length and guarantee, he could hope to bounce back and reenter the market next winter in search of a bigger deal. Prior to his messy 2018 campaign, after all, Allen had seemed on track for a sizable, multi-year pact in free agency.

This time last year, Allen had just agreed to a $10MM deal to avoid arbitration in his final season with the Indians. He had long since laid claim to the team’s closer role. In total, as of the conclusion of the 2017 season, Allen had run up 373 2/3 innings of 2.67 ERA pitching with 11.7 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 and 122 games saved.

With an immaculate record of durability, ample high-leverage experience, and consistently robust velocity readings and swinging-strike rates, Allen had all the makings of a top free agent closer. He was due to hit the market at a relatively youthful thirty years of age. That version of Allen might reasonably have looked to a contract like the Mark Melancon deal as a floor in free agency.

Instead, things went south in 2018. It was hardly a complete disaster, as Allen was healthy enough to make seventy appearances and save 27 ballgames while showing many of the same skills he always had. But it was a thoroughly diminished version of the hurler in many regards.

For starters, Allen averaged a career-low 94.0 mph with his fastball — a notable, though hardly monumental, decline from his typical levels. Whether that was the root cause isn’t entirely clear, but opposing batters seemingly found it easier to fight off his sliders; their contact rate on balls out of the zone jumped from below fifty percent (as low as 44.3% in 2017) all the way up to 56.9% last year. Ultimately, Allen recorded a 12.7% swinging-strike — his lowest since he became the closer for the Indians — while hard contact soared to 38.4% and he coughed up nearly a homer and a half per nine innings.

That’s not to say that all is lost. Perhaps Allen can rediscover a bit of juice on his heater, or otherwise adjust. He did end up being a bit unlucky, with Statcast crediting him with a .306 xwOBA that lagged the .323 wOBA that hitters produced against him. Things certainly didn’t end on a promising note, as Allen was bombed in two postseason appearances, but he may only be a mechanical adjustment or restful winter away from clicking back into gear.

The Halos, clearly, will take a roll of the dice on a return to form. As with rotation additions Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill, the organization clearly hopes to unearth some gems — or, at least, pick up some solid innings at a reasonable price — without tampering with its post-2019 balance sheet. Allen is certainly a reasonable risk, with clear upside, though the pitching unit as a whole still underwhelms on paper.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Twins To Sign Martin Perez

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5:04pm: Perez’s deal is worth approximately $3.5MM, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets.

3:01pm: Per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the Twins have agreed to a one-year deal with free agent lefty Martin Perez.  The deal reportedly includes a club option for 2020.

Martin Perez

Perez, 27, appeared in parts of seven seasons with the Rangers, posting a career 4.63 ERA/4.44 FIP/4.51 xFIP in 761 1/3 IP. A once-prized farmhand under the guiding hand of former Rangers assistant GM (and current Twins GM) Thad Levine, Perez dealt with an assortment of injuries during his tenure with the club, and never quite fulfilled the tantalizing bat-missing potential he displayed in the minors. Perez’s 5.46 K/9 ranks as one of the league’s lowest during that span, and it isn’t much offset by a career 3.19 BB/9, which swelled to 3.80 in 2018.

Perez, though, has long hung his hat on his knack for inducing the ground ball. Indeed, his 50.9% career grounder rate places 12th among all starters with at least 700 IP from 2012-18, aided in large part by a heavy sinker that hasn’t much slowed down despite recent-season struggles. His worm-burning tendencies, too, have helped him keep the ball in play – a 0.96 career HR/9 (even with last season’s 1.69 homer-per-nine anomaly) ranks, when adjusting for the homer-happy confines of Arlington’s Globe Life Park, as one of the league’s best of the decade, and should play very well within a park around which the club has a tailored a lineup rife with right-handed power.

2018 was an awful one for Perez, as the lefty posted career worsts in walk rate, HR/9, ERA (6.22) and FIP (5.72). He was demoted to the bullpen in late summer, where he still struggled with command, eventually making his $7.5MM option a foregone rejection. Both Steamer and ZiPS though, remain mostly on board, with the former projecting a 4.48 FIP and the latter a 4.51, each of which rated around league-average in the decidedly hitter-friendly environs of Texas.

Perez will join a rotation that includes Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, and the rehabbing Michael Pineda, and figures to have inside track for the rotation’s fifth and final spot at current. Lefties Stephen Gonsalves and Adalberto Mejia will contend, and the club could also look to Zack Littell, Kohl Stewart, or Fernando Romero, should injuries surface.

Mystery Teams Reportedly Pursuing Manny Machado

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9:25pm: Machado has held an in-person meeting with one of the mystery clubs “in recent days,” Martino tweets. The report also indicates that Machado is expected to choose the biggest contract offer he’s presented, with other factors evidently taking a back seat.

8:03pm: The presence or absence of so-called “mystery teams” — unidentified but active pursuers of a given player — has long been a subplot of the market for Manny Machado this winter. With the Phillies, White Sox, and (to a lesser extent) Yankees known to be involved in the hunt, the question is whether other organizations would quietly help drive the bidding.

Now, on the heels of some suggestive comments from Machado’s father (via Dominican journalist Hector Gomez, on Twitter), there’s clear reporting indicating that is the case. Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets that not only is there a mystery team chasing Machado, but that it’s presently the high bidder. Andy Martino of SNY.tv adds on Twitter that there are actually two such clubs in the mix.

While this news is certainly vague in one sense, in that it doesn’t indicate what teams are now involved, it certainly is being presented as being firmly rooted in reality. Some may be skeptical, but it has always made sense for certain clubs to prefer to make their pursuit a quiet one. And the truly hard-to-fathom aspect of the market to date has been the lack of more teams publicly chasing one of the game’s best players, who’s hitting the market at just 26 years of age.

Last we checked in on Machado, a few days back, his agent Dan Lozano was forced to publicly comment on reports of a middling offer from the White Sox. Indeed, the level of money that had been suggested — seven years, $175MM — hardly seems to match Machado’s value when considering his established track record, age, and past open-market contracts. In any event, it seems at a minimum that those numbers may not have represented a full picture of the level of the Chicago organization’s interest.

The latest news puts a much better spin on the outlook for Machado. If there are indeed a pair of mystery teams, in addition to the three known to have interest, then that leaves quite a few more landing spots for Lozano to explore — and, presumably, a fair bit more leverage to work with in trying to move Machado’s earning level northward.

Yankees Close To Dealing Sonny Gray

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5:13pm: “A few teams” remain in talks with the Yanks, per Jack Curry of  the YES Network (via Twitter).

3:49pm: The Athletics and Padres are involved, while the Reds do not appear to be, according to SNY.tv’s Andy Martino (Twitter link).

Heyman hears that the Giants have entered the picture (Twitter link). Contrary to Martino, he also suggests that the organizations previously rumored to have interest have dropped back — including the A’s and Pads as well as all of the other ballclubs listed below.

3:11pm: David O’Brien of The Athletic tweets that any trade of Gray won’t include the Braves. There have been no recent discussions between New York and Atlanta, per O’Brien.

1:51pm: Heyman now tweets that the Yankees are “close” to trading Gray. He adds that New York is receiving interest in right-handed relievers Jonathan Holder and Tommy Kahnle, as well.

1:45pm: The Yankees, who reportedly reached an agreement with Adam Ottavino this afternoon, are “working hard” on a trade of right-hander Sonny Gray, per Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The team’s effort “appears to be getting more serious,” Heyman writes, noting that previous suitors for Gray have included the Reds, Giants, Brewers, Padres, Athletics, Braves and Mariners. It’s not clear that any of those clubs are at the forefront of New York’s current efforts to move Gray, though.

Gray and the Yankees agreed to a $7.5MM salary for the 2019 season recently. While GM Brian Cashman had previously suggested that the Yanks could hold Gray into the 2019 season despite voicing a preference to find a change of scenery for Gray, that possibility became less likely when CC Sabathia was cleared to resume baseball activities following a December angioplasty procedure. With Sabathia back on track for the ’19 season, Gray once again became a more superfluous piece for the Yanks.

A change of scenery for Gray, 29, only makes sense after he struggled profusely with the Yankees in 2018 — particularly when pitching at Yankee Stadium. Gray posted a ghastly 6.98 ERA at home in 2018 compared to a 3.17 ERA on the road, and while there’s surely more at play in those splits than the surface-level numbers exhibit, the contrast between the two numbers is unequivocally jarring.

Teams interested in Gray are undoubtedly encouraged by the fact that his velocity remained consistent with its previous levels (93.8 mph average fastball), that his swinging-strike rate remained north of 10 percent and that his ground-ball tendencies (50 percent) remained well above league average. Gray actually allowed home runs at his lowest rate since 2015, as well (0.97 HR/9; 13.3% HR/FB) despite pitching more than 40 percent of his innings at the homer-friendly Yankee Stadium.

The righty isn’t far removed from one of the American League’s better arms — he was an in-demand trade commodity at the 2017 deadline when the Yankees acquired him — and he entered the 2018 season with a lifetime 3.45 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 7.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 770 1/3 innings. Prior to 2018, he’d only had one season with an ERA higher than 3.55 — an injury-marred 2017 season — and had even finished third in 2015 American League Cy Young voting. While Gray surely has a long way to go to get back to that level, he’s a quality buy-low option whose $7.5MM salary should be affordable for just about any team in need of pitching help.

Yankees To Sign Adam Ottavino

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12:47pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that Ottavino will be guaranteed $27MM over the three-year term.

12:42pm :The Yankees have agreed to terms on a contract with free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino, ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets. Robert Murray and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic had reported seconds prior that the two sides were closing in on an arrangement believed to be worth roughly $25MM over three years (Twitter link). Ottavino is represented by All Bases Covered Sports Management.

Adam Ottavino | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Ottavino, a New York native who went to high school in Brooklyn, has been connected to the Yankees since before the offseason even began. His addition comes on the heels of a breakout 2018 season with the Rockies in which the 33-year-old righty pitched to a 2.43 ERA with 13.0 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 0.58 HR/9 and a 43 percent ground-ball rate in 77 2/3 innings of relief.

Ottavino joins an already loaded New York relief corps that features Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, Chad Green and fellow offseason signee Zach Britton. That group is impressive on its own, before even considering 25-year-old righty Jonathan Holder, who may not yet be a household name but has nevertheless emerged as a quality reliever in his own right. Certainly, no bullpen is ever a sure thing to produce, given the year-over-year volatility of relief pitchers, but in terms of sheer talent and upside, there’s arguably no better collection of bullpen arms in baseball right now.

It should be noted that while Ottavino had a career year in 2018, the two prior seasons garnered more mixed results. Ottavino underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2015 and missed the majority of that season as well as a notable chunk of the 2016 campaign. When he returned in July 2016, he was nothing short of excellent, pitching to a 2.67 ERA with a 35-to-7 K/BB ratio and a preposterous 61.9 percent grounder rate in 27 innings.

The 2017 season, however, was brutal for Ottavino, as he averaged 6.6 walks and 1.35 homers per nine innings pitched en route to a 5.06 ERA. Coming off that campaign, few would’ve believed that the righty would put himself in position to score this type of three-year deal on the open market, but his remarkable bounceback effort was an eye-opener. Ottavino’s 12.1 percent swinging-strike rate isn’t commensurate with the whiff rate you’d expect for someone averaging 13 punchouts per nine innings, and his 26.1 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches is well below the league average for a reliever. Nonetheless, today’s agreement serves as evidence that the Yankees are convinced of his ability to at least approach his 2018 output as he enters his mid-30s.

In effect, Ottavino will be replacing right-hander David Robertson, who signed with the Phillies on a two-year deal worth a guaranteed $23MM a couple of weeks back. Britton, the team’s other marquee addition, had already finished out the season in manager Aaron Boone’s bullpen following a deadline trade with the Orioles. In that sense, then, one could argue that the bullpen hasn’t definitively improved. Of course, improving on a relief corps that posted the game’s fourth-best ERA (3.38) and the game’s highest strikeout percentage (30.2 percent) is no small feat. At the very least, swapping out Robertson for Ottavino will ensure that the Yankees’ bullpen should maintain its already elite status, even if one or two of the team’s top relievers take a step back in ’19.

The recent additions of Ottavino and DJ LeMahieu, former Rockies teammates now reunited in the Bronx, have added $21MM worth of luxury tax hits to the Yankees’ ledger. That should put them firmly above the $206MM cutoff even if they’re successfully able to find a taker for Sonny Gray and his $7.5MM salary. As Jason Martinez outlines at Roster Resource, the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll currently projects to just north of $224MM, while their actual in-season 2019 payroll — assuming an even $9MM per year breakdown of Ottavino’s deal — currently rests around $209.5MM.

However, the Yankees dipped south of the luxury tax line last season, which reset them back into the lowest penalty bracket. As such, they’ll be faced with a relatively tame penalty — a 12 percent overage tax on every dollar north of the $206MM cutoff point.

The three-year, $27MM value of Ottavino’s contract is likely a bitter pill for the Rockies to swallow, as Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post observes (Twitter link). The Rox handed out a pair of three-year deals worth that exact amount when signing Bryan Shaw and Jake McGee an offseason ago, both of whom struggled through awful seasons in year one of those contracts. That pair of signings, however, combined with the $52MM pact given to Wade Davis, surely restricted the Rockies’ ability to make an earnest effort to re-sign Ottavino this winter.

Generally, though, Ottavino’s contract falls well within range of what was reasonably expected heading into the offseason. We at MLBTR ranked him 21st on our annual ranking of the game’s Top 50 free agents, predicting that he’d secure a three-year, $30MM pact with the Yankees.

Agent Dan Lozano Issues Statement On Latest Manny Machado Reports

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In the wake of this morning’s reports from ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link), in which both suggested that the White Sox’ current offer to Manny Machado stands at $175MM over seven years, Machado’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, issued the following statement to MLBTR and other media outlets:

I have known Bob Nightengale and Buster Olney for many years and have always had a good professional relationship with both. But their recent reporting, like many other rumors in the past several months, have been inaccurate and reckless when it comes to Manny Machado. I don’t know if their sources are blatantly violating the Collective Bargaining Agreement by intentionally misleading them to try and affect negotiations through the public or are just flat out lying to them for other reasons. But the truth is that their reports on the details of the White Sox level of interest in Manny are completely wrong.

I am well aware that the entire baseball universe; fans, players, teams, and media members alike; are starved for information about this free agent market for all players, including Manny. But I am not going to continue to watch the press be manipulated into tampering with, not just with my client, but all of these players’ livelihoods as they have been doing this entire offseason. The absence of new information to report is no excuse to fabricate “news” or regurgitate falsehoods without even attempting to confirm their validity and it is a disservice to baseball fans everywhere when the media does just that.

Moving forward, I will continue to respect the CBA’s prohibition on negotiations through the media, and hope that others would do the same.

It’s an emphatic denial of this morning’s reports and a fairly rare step for an agent or team executive to take with regard to media reports. Lozano, though, clearly felt strongly enough to offer a firm rebuke of the information that has been put forth. The “White Sox level of interest” is in reference to the reported numbers on Machado’s offer this morning, rather than a commentary on Chicago’s desire to sign the player himself. At this point, there’s no clear timeline or indication as to when Machado’s free-agent saga will end.

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